L-2024-132, 2024 Population Update Analysis
| ML24226A481 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Saint Lucie  |
| Issue date: | 08/13/2024 |
| From: | Rasmus P Florida Power & Light Co |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Document Control Desk |
| References | |
| L-2024-132 | |
| Download: ML24226A481 (1) | |
Text
l=PL.
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Attn: Document Control Desk Washington, D. C. 20555 Re:
St. Lucie Units 1 and 2 August 13,2024 Docket Nos. 50-335 and 50-389 2024 Population Update Analysis L-2024-132 10 CFR 50, Appendix E Pursuant to 10 CFR 50, Appendix E, Section IV, St. Lucie is submitting an annual estimate of the permanent resident population within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).Section IV of Appendix E requires the licensee to estimate EPZ permanent resident population changes once per year and to submit the estimates to the NRC with any updated Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) analysis.
Based on the population analysis, the EPZ has grown enough at this time to require a full ETE update.
As such, a full ETE has been completed and is enclosed with this submittal.
This letter contains no new regulatory commitments.
Should you have any questions regarding this submittal, please contact Mr. Kenneth Mack, Senior Manager, Licensing and Regulatory Compliance, at 561-904-3635.
Sincerely, a~~
General Manager, Regulatory Affairs
Enclosure:
St. Lucie 2024 Population Update Analysis - Evacuation Time Estimate cc:
Mr. Clark Eldredge, Florida Department of Health USNRC Regional Administrator, Region II USNRC Senior Resident Inspector, St. Lucie Units 1 and 2
ENCLOSURE L-2024-132 Enclosure ST. LUCIE 2024 POPULATION UPDATE ANALYSIS M EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE (18 pages follow)
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 1 of 18 This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to develop Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant (St. Lucie) located in Jensen Beach, St. Lucie County, Florida. The ETE are part of the required planning basis and provide Florida Power and Light (FPL) and the state and local governments (offsite response organizations
- OROs) with site-specific information needed for protective action decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal Governmental agencies. Most important of these are:
Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 (10CFR50), Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, NRC, 2011.
Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, February 2021.
Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual, FEMA P-1028, December 2023.
Project Activities This project began in January 2024 and extended over a period of approximately 6 months. The major activities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:
Conducted a virtual kickoff meeting with FPL personnel and state and county emergency management agencies.
Projected 2020 Census permanent resident population from the Census Bureau1 website to 2024 using annual growth rates computed from the 2023 county population estimates and 2022 municipal population estimates.
Estimated the number of employees commuting into the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) based on the US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (WAC) data from the OnTheMap2 Census analysis tool and the plant employment data provided by FPL.
Studied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of St. Lucie, then conducted a detailed field survey of highways, major evacuation routes and construction/developing areas to observe any roadway characteristics and changes relative to the previous ETE study done in 2022.
Updated the analysis network representing the highway system topology and capacities within the EPZ, plus a Shadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from the plant.
1 www.census.gov 2 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-1 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 2 of 18 Utilized the results of the 2021 demographic survey of residents within the EPZ to gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database. The U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (ACS)3 average age and household size data for the counties within the EPZ for 2020 and 2022 were analyzed to validate that EPZ demographics have not significantly changed, thereby justifying the use of the 2021 demographic survey results in this ETE study (see Appendix F.2).
A data needs matrix (requesting data) was provided to FPL and the OROs at the kickoff meeting. The data for St. Lucie plant employees, t ransients, and special facilities (i.e.,
schools, medical facilities and correctional facilities) gathered for the previous ETE study were reviewed and either confirmed or updated accordingly by the OROs. If updated information was not provided and could not be obtained from online sources, data gathered for the previous (2022) ETE study was utilized to supplement the data.
The traffic demand and trip-generation rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rates reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e., the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) computed using the results of the demographic survey of EPZ residents.
The existing 8 Areas within the EPZ were grouped within circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circles plus radial sectors) that define a total of 13 Evacuation Regions (numbered ROl through R13), as per federal guidelines and as defined by the existing protective action recommendations (PAR).
The time-varying external circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, each described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of Week (Midweek, Weekend); (3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening); and (4) Weather {Good, Rain).
One special event scenario involving Stuart Airshow was considered. One roadway impact scenario was considered wherein a single lane was closed on lnterstate-95 {1-95) southbound from the interchange with SW St. Lucie West Blvd (Exit 121) to the interchange with State Route (SR)-714/Martin Highway (Exit 110), for the duration of the evacuation.
Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2-Mile Radius and Areas downwind to 5 miles are evacuated.
As per NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1, the Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is:
A rapidly escalating accident at the plant that quickly assumes the status of a general emergency wherein evacuation is ordered promptly, and no early protective actions have been implemented such that the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) is virtually coincident with the siren notification.
3 https://www.census.gov/proqrams-surveys/acs/data.html St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-2 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 3 of 18 11 While an unlikely accident scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measured as the elapsed time from the ATE until the stated percentage of the population exits the impacted Region, that represent "upper bound" estimates. This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events.
If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that the schoolchildren will be evacuated by bus directly to school reception centers located outside the EPZ and will subsequently be picked up by parents or legal guardians, as stated in the 2022 Port St. Lucie Fact Sheet. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to not pick up their children at school prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that purpose. The ETE for schoolchildren are calculated separately except for those at preschools or day care centers that are picked up by the parents or legal guardians.
Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either rideshare with relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided by the counties in the EPZ. Those in medical facilities will likewise be evacuated with public transit, as needed: bus, wheelchair bus, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are calculated for the transit-dependent evacuees, for the disabilities and other access and functional needs population, and for those evacuated from medical facilities. (Correctional facilities shelter in place.)
Conducted a virtual final meeting FPL personnel and emergency management personnel representing the OROs to present final results from the study.
Computation of ETE A total of 156 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 13 Evacuation Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 12 Evacuation Scenarios (13 x 12 = 156). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent evacuees, including schoolchildren and medical facility residents for applicable scenarios.
Except for Region R03, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a portion of the people within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the ATE applies only to those people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100% of the people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to the ATE. The people occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take shelter.
The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the impacted region, will elect to "evacuate voluntarily1'. In addition, 20% of the population in the Shadow Region will also elect to evacuate. These voluntary and shadow evacuees could impede those who are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by voluntary and shadow evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-3 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 4 of 18 Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within 2 miles of St. Lucie evacuate immediately, while those beyond 2 miles, but within the EPZ, shelter-in-place. Once 90% of the 2-Mile Radius is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal guidance, the assumed 20% of people beyond 2 miles evacuate (non-compliance) even though they are advised to shelter-in-place during a staged evacuation.
The computational procedure is outlined as follows:
A link-node representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a unidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or merge point. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations and on established traffic engineering procedures.
The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located within the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on population density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area.
The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are compliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of the plant), and then simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process estimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.
The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 90% and 100%, respectively, of the population within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. These statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The goth percentile ETE have been identified as the values that should be considered when making protective action decisions because the 100th percentile ETE are prolonged by those relatively few people who take longer to mobilize. This is referred to as the 11evacuation tail" in Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002, Rev. 1.
Traffic Management This study reviewed, modeled and analyzed the existing comprehensive traffic management plan within the EPZ provided by the OROs. It should be noted, nearly all of the traffic signals in the study area are actuated signals which will adapt their timing to the changing traffic patterns during evacuation. Based on the ETE simulation, two additional traffic control points (TCPs} are recommended. Refer to Section 9.
Selected Results A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of figures and tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below.
Table 3-3 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each Area based on the 2020 Census data extrapolated to 2024.
Table 6-1 defines each of the 13 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groups of Areas.
Table 6-2 defines the 12 Evacuation Scenarios.
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-4 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 5 of 18 Tables 7-1 and 7-2 are compilations of ETE for the general population. This data are the times needed to clear the indicated regions of go% and 100% of the population occupying these regions, respectively. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the Shadow Region. These tables also include ETE results for staged evacuation on residents beyond the 2-Mile Radius; The ETE for Regions R02, R04 and ROS are compared to Regions R11, R12 and R13, respectively.
e Tables 7-3 and 7-4 present the ETE for the 2-Mile Radius when evacuating those beyond 2-miles downwind to 5 miles for un-staged and staged evacuations for the goth and 100th percentile ETE, respectively.
e Table 8-2 presents the ETE for the children at schools in good weather.
Table 8-4 presents the ETE for the transit-dependent population in good weather.
Table 8-6 presents the ETE for the medical facilities in good weather.
Table L-3 compares the results of the sensitivity study conducted to determine the effect on ETE due to changes in the permanent resident population within the study area (EPZ plus Shadow Region).
Figure 6-1 presents a map of the St. Lucie EPZ showing the layout of the 8 Areas that comprise, in aggregate, the EPZ.
Figure G-8 presents an example of an Evacuation Region (Region R08) to be evacuated under the circumstances defined in Table 6-1. Maps of all regions are provided in Appendix G.
Conclusions General population ETE were computed for 156 unique cases - a combination of 13 unique Evacuation Regions and 12 unique Evacuation Scenarios. Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 document these ETE for the goth and 100th percentiles. The goth percentile ETEs range from 4:15 (hr:min) to 8:15. The 100th percentile ETEs range from 7:00 to 10:45 for good weather and rain cases and are dictated by congestion within the study area for all scenarios..
The comparison of Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicate that the 100th percentile ETE are significantly longer than those for the goth percentile ETE. This is the result of the congestion within the EPZ. When the roadway system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand. See Section 7.5 and Figures 7-10 through 7-21.
1-95, Florida Turnpike, US-1 and roads accessing the ramps to the interstate {1-95 and Florida turnpike) are the most congested areas during an evacuation. The last locations in the EPZ to exhibit traffic congestion are along US-1, the east-west roads that allow access to US-1 {Orange Avenue, CR-712/W Midway Road, St. Lucie W Boulevard, and SW Crosstown Parkway), and Selvitz Road, which allows access to the aforementioned east-west roads. All congestion within the EPZ clears by g hours and 40 minutes after the ATE St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-5 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 6 of 18 for an evacuation of the entire EPZ under Scenario 6 conditions (winter, midweek, midday with good weather}. See Section 7.3 and Figures 7-3 through 7-9.
The comparison of Scenarios 8 and 11 (winter, weekend, midday, good weather}, in Table 7-1, indicates that the special event-Stuart Airshow - has an impact on the goth percentile ETE (up to 35-minute increases in ETE for the 5-Mile Region and Regions 7 and 8}. The increase is attendees reduce the roadway capacity, creating more congestion and delays prolonging ETE. The Stuart Airshow has no impact on the 100th percentile ETE, as show11 in Table 7-2, as the significant congestion within the EPZ is dictating the ETE. See Section 7.5 for additional discussion.
The comparison of Scenarios 1 and 12 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the roadway closure - one lane southbound on 1-95 from the interchange with SW St. Lucie West Blvd (Exit 121} to the interchange with SR-714/Martin Highway (Exit 110}- increases the goth percentile ETE by at most 40 minutes and the 100th percentile ETE by at most 55 minutes - a significant change. See Section 7.5 for additional information.
Inspection of Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2-Mile Radius (compare the 2-mile radius with the remainder of the regions shown in the table in Tables 7-3 and 7-4). As per NUREG-0654, Supplement 3, this analysis would result in staged evacuation not being implemented.
See Section 7.6 for additional discussion.
Separate ETE were computed for schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent persons and disabilities and other access and functional needs persons. The average single-wave ETE for all these facilities is lower than the goth percentile general population ETE. The average second wave ETE for schools, medical facilities, and the disabilities and other access and functional needs population do not exceed the goth percentile ETE for general population whereas the ETE for transit dependent population exceeds the goth percentile ETE for the general population and could affect protective action decision making. See Section 8.
Table 8-1 indicates that there are insufficient transportation resources (ambulances) available to evacuate the bedridden population within the EPZ in a single wave. The bus capacity available is not sufficient to evacuate all of the schoolchildren, transit-dependent people and ambulatory persons in a single wave. Second wave ETE are computed for all those needing a bus or ambulance. See Sections 8.1 and 8.2.
A decrease or increase of the base trip generation time by an hour has little to no impact on the goth percentile ETE and 100th percentile ETE (by at most 10 minutes). As discussed in Section 7.3, traffic congestion persists within the EPZ for 9 hours1.041667e-4 days <br />0.0025 hours <br />1.488095e-5 weeks <br />3.4245e-6 months <br /> and 40 minutes after the ATE. As such, the ETE is not significantly affected by trip generation but the congestion within the EPZ. See Appendix L.1 and Table L-1.
The general population ETE is sensitive to an increase of the voluntary evacuation of vehicles in the Shadow Region. For example, quadrupling the shadow evacuation percentage increases the goth percentile ETE by 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> and 25 minutes and 100th percentile ETE by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 5 minutes. See Appendix L.2 and Table L-2.
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-6 KLD Associates, Inc.
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 7 of 18 An increase in the permanent resident population (EPZ plus Shadow Region) of 8% or greater results in an increase in the longest goth percentile ETE by 30 minutes for an evacuation of the Full EPZ (Region R03}, which meets the federal criterion for performing a fully updated ETE study between decennial Censuses. See Appendix L.3 and Table L.3 St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population 1
2024 Extrapolated Area 2020 Population Population 1
4,446 4,662 2
14,257 16,260 3
41,438 44,151 4
45,562 56,221 5
82,819 104,577 6
25,351 31,640 7
23,680 25,020 8
7,591 8,585 ES-7 KLD Associates, Inc.
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Region ROl Region N/A R04 Region ROG N/A R07 N/A ROB R09 N/A Region Rll N/A R12 N/A Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions Description 2-Mile Region 5-Mile Region Full EPZ Wind Direction Towards:
N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE SSE,S,SSW sw,wsw,w Wind Direction Towards:
4 N
NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE SE SSE s,ssw sw,wsw w
Wind Direction Towards:
3 4
5-Mile Region N, NNE, NE, ENE, E, ESE, SE SSE, S, SSW sw,wsw,w Area(s) Shelter-in-Place 6
L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 8 of 18 4 According to site specific protective action recommendations, Area 7 will always evacuate when Areas 6 and 8 evacuate.
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-8 KLD Associates, Inc.
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Scenarios I Season5 1
Summer 2
Summer 3
Summer 4
Summer 5
Summer 6
Winter 7
Winter 8
Winter 9
Winter 10 Winter 11 Winter 12 Summer Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions I
Day of I
Time of I I
Week Day Weather Midweek Midday Good Midweek Midday Rain Weekend Midday Good Weekend Midday Rain M idweek, Evening Good Weekend Midweek Midday Good Midweek Midday Rain Weekend Midday Good Weekend Midday Rain
- Midweek, Evening Good Weekend Weekend Midday Good Midweek Midday Good L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 9 of 18 Special I
None None None None None None None None None None Special Event -
Stuart Airshow Roadway Impact-Single Lane Closure on 1-95 Southbound 5 Winter means that school is in session at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate ES-9 KLD Associates, Inc.
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Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer I
Summer I Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek I
Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region I Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Good Rain Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 4:~~
~ - '!=~i~
.* J i:!5 5:40 4:15 5:00 5:25 5:15 5:40
.,. 4:2_0." _ __ _5..;1-5-- -
4:25 4'..........
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R02 5:25 5:55 5:15 5:40 4:45 5:35 6:10 5:15 5:40 4:45 5:50 5:25
,~- -.._,_
n - -
R03 7:20 8:10 6:55 7:40 5:55 7:30 8:15 6:55 7:40 6:00 7:00 7:50 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 5:40 5:40 5:35 5:40 4:50 5:40 -
5:50 5:35 5:40 -2=
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ROS 5:00 5:10 5:05 5:30 4:20 5:05 5:20 5:05 5:30 4:20 5:05 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary RQ.6 5:30 5:50 5:15 5:3Q ~
~. 11 5 5:30 5:45 5:15 5:30 4:~9.
5:15 5:30
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ROS 6:25 6:00 6:25 5:20 6:05 7:15 6:00 6:25 5:15 6:10 6:15
. _ 6:,~ - -
R09 6:45 7:30
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R10 6:00 6:25 R11 5:45 5:55
~ - -
R12 5:25
-* 2:20 R13 4:50 4:50 St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6:30 5:35 5:25
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6:05 4:45 6:05 6:40 5:35 6:05 4:40 5:35 6:15 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles 5:45 5:10 5:40 6:15 5:20 6:00 5:05 5:50 5:45 n-n n
6:00 5:25 5:45 5:50 5:40 5:55 5:15 5:40
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Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Midweek Midday Region I Good I Rain Weather RQl 7:35 8:15
~-
~ -- -*-*
R02 7:45 8:20 R03 9:45 10:45 R06 8:05 8:40 R07 7:40 8:15 ROS __
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8:25
.:l,l R09 8:40 9:35
-r fl RlO 8:30 9:10 Rll 7:45 8:20
1"1' R12 7:45 8:20 R13 7:40 8:20 St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Summer Summer Winter Winter Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend (7)
(8)
(9)
Midday Evening Midday Midday Good I Rain Good Good I Rain Good I Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ
__ s:sg_..
9:50 _ -* -*. 7:0Q.,
8:20 9:10 8:50 9:50
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..... 1111.1.".111:-1111
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9:15 9:50 7:20 8:30 9:10 9:10 9:50 ff 9:35 10:25 7:35 9:45 10:30 9:30 10:25 9:50 7:20 8:30 9:10 9:10 9:50
- ----~--....
9:50 7:10 8:20 9:10 9:00 9:50 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary 9:15 10:20 7:20 8:50 9:30 9:00 10:20 9:05 9:50 7:20 8:30 9:10 9:05 9:50 C
- n 9:10 9:55 7:20 8:30 9:30 9:10 9:55 9:15 9:55 7:35 8:35 9:35 9:15 9:55
- - ~
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flfl 9:20 10:20 7:30 8:55 9:45 9:20 10:20 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles 9:15 9:55 7:20 8:30 9:15 9:10 9:55 9J.9..*.
9:55 7:20 8:30 9:10 9:10 9:55 9:00 9:55 7:10 8:20 9:15 9:00 9:55 ES-11 Winter Winter Summer Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend (10)
Evening Midday Midday Good Special Roadway Weather Event Impact
-- Z=.?S.,
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7:25 9:00 7:35 7:50 9:00 8:05 7:40 9:05 7:40 7:40 9:10 7:55 7:40 9:15 9:35 fl 7:50 9:20 8:40 7:40 9:10 7:45 ff -- - - ---
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Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated Region Summer Midweek Midday Region I Good I Rain Weather
~ Mile ~il~iu~
2:15 2:45 ROl
- 2:15 2:45
- -,------.. ~---~- -
R02 2:15 2:45
~
R04 2:15 2:45 ROS 2:15 2:45 R11 2:15 2:45
- .. 4
., **. ~ ----
~g __ ~ 2:15 2:45
~.. -,.,....._.... -
R13 2:15 2:45 St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Summer Summer Winter Winter Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend (5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
Midday Evening Midday Midday Good I Rain Good Good I Rain Good
- 1 Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Unstaged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15
,1.,,,.,
2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15
~-
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2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:55 3:15 2:45 3:10 3:15 2:55 3:15 ES-12 Winter Midweek Weekend (10)
Evening Good Weather 2:45
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2:45 2:45 -
2:45 2:45 2:45
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2:45
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W.,.
2:45 Winter Summer Weekend Midweek Midday Midday Special Roadway Event Impact 2:55 2:15
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Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Radius within the Indicated Region Summer I
Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter I Winter I Summer Midweek I
Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek I W k
d I Midweek Weekend Weekend ee en (5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region I Good I Rain Good I Rain Good Good Rain Good Rain Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact Unstaged Evacuation Mile Radius, 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles 2-Mile Radius 6:1~ 4 - __§;!?_ *.
6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15,.
~. 6:15 6:15 ___ 6:15 I 6:15 I
6:15
~ -
ROl 6:15 6:15 6:15
--.-. --- ---~.-.-:
R02
_ 6:15 6:15 R04 6:15 6:15 ROS 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 n
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r 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5-Miles 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15 6:15
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Table 8-2. School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Area 2 30 10 6.4 17.6 22
-- 1:05 4.8 6
_j.:15 Area3 30 10 5.6 8.6 39 1:20 7.0 9
1:30 Area4 30 10 4.2 27.4 9
0:50 10.1 13 1:05 Area 5 30 10 3.4 20.8 10 0:5_0 15.0 20 1:10 Area 6 30 10 8.4 14.9 34 14.9 20 1!35 M aximum for l;PZ:
~ -
M~ximum:
Average for EPZ:
_Average:
Table 8-4. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Single Wave _
Second Wave Route Route Pickup 1
Distance Travel Driver Route Pickup Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Travel Time ETE to R. C.
Time to R.
Unload Rest Travel Time Time ETE Servicing Number (min)
(miles)
(mph)
Time (min)
(min)
(hr:min)
(miles)
C. (min)
(min)
(min)
(min)
(min)
(hr:min)
Area 1 1-2 210 12.1 5.6 131 30
__ 6:15 30.2 40 5
10 72 30 8:SS Area 2 1-5 210 6.4 2.6 150 30 6:30 32.2 43 5
10 60 30 9:00 1-6 210 7.7 4.0 114 30 5:55 26.0 35 5
10 77 30 8:35 Area 3 7-13 230 7.7 4.5 103 30 6:QS 26.0 35 5
10 77 30 8:45 I
1-8 210 4.2 2.1 121 30 6:0S 37.3 so 5
10 62 30 8:4_?
Area4 I
9-16 230 4.2 2.3 112 30 6:1? _
37.3 so 5
10 77 30 9:io 1-10 210 3.4 5.7 36 30 4:40 15.0 20 5
10 80 30 7:05 Areas I 11-18 230 3.4 6.5 32 30
- - 4:55 15.0 20 5
10 70 30 19-30 250 3.4 7.7 27 30 5:lb 15.0 20 5
10 49 30 1-4 210 8.4 3.8 133 30 6:15 58.6 78 5
10 101 30 Area 6 I
5-9 230 8.4 4.1 122 30 6:25 58.6 78 5
10 101 30 Area 7 I
1-7 210 5.4 6.2 52 30 4:55 47.2 63 5
10 78 30 Areas I
1-3 210 12.4 10.9 68 30 5:10 48.9 65 5
10 98 30
~ !""T~ Di Maximum ETE:
Maximum ETE:
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Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. O
Area 2
!Wheelchair bound Area 3
~heelchair bound Area 4
!Wheelchair bound
.mbulatory Area 5 1 * 'heelchair bound mbulatory Area 6
~heelchair bound
!Bedridden St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Table 8-6. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather I
90 5
14 15 90 5
2 10 90 1
128 30 I
90 5
356 15 90 5
323 10 90 1
192
- 30 I
90 5
117 15 90 5
2 10 90 1
90 30 90 5
30 15 90 1
421 30 90 5
464 15 90 5
172 10 ES-15 6.4 118 3:45 6.4 115 3:35 7.7 144 4:25 7.7 139 4:05 7.7 138 4:00 4.2 143 4:25 4.2 138 4:05 4.2 135 3:SS 3.4 29 2:30 3.4 31 2:20 8.4 161 4:45 8.4 167 4:35 8.4 167 4:30 Maximum ETE:
4:45 Average ETE:
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L-2024-132 Enclosure Page 16 of 18 Table L-3. ETE Variation with Population Increase EPZ and 20% Shadow Population Change Permanent Resident Population Region 2-MILE (ROl) 5-MILE (R02}
FULL EPZ (R03}
Region 2-MILE (ROl}
5-MILE (R02}
FULL EPZ (R03}
St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate Base 6%
i 7%
I 330,064 I 349,sGs I 3s3,16s I ETE (hrs:mins) for the goth Percentile Population Change Base 6%
7%
5:25 5:30 5:35 6:10 6:10 6:10 8%
356,469 8%
5:35 6:20
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7%
8%
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St. Lucie Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate l
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