ML24156A089
| ML24156A089 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 05/21/2024 |
| From: | Clayton D, Keith Compton, Amy Sharp, Elena Yegorova NRC/RES/DSA/AAB, Sandia |
| To: | |
| Elena Yegorova 301-415-2440 | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML24156A087 | List: |
| References | |
| Download: ML24156A089 (1) | |
Text
Use of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Reanalysis Data to Support Severe Accident Consequence Analysis at Locations without Onsite Meteorological Data Elena Yegorovaa, Daniel Claytonb, Keith Comptona, Amy Sharpa aUS Nuclear Regulatory Commission1, Washington, DC, USA bSandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, USA elena.yegorova@nrc.gov; djclayt@sandia.gov; keith.compton@nrc.gov; amy.sharp@nrc.gov The landscape of the nations future nuclear fleet is being reshaped by the emergence of advanced nuclear technologies, such as small modular reactors and micro-reactors. To ensure public safety and protect the environment, certain regulatory actions require an assessment of potential off-site consequence risks from a hypothetical severe accident. Key to these analyses is atmospheric dispersion and transport modeling, where local weather patterns play a significant role in determining probabilistic consequences. With the anticipated future deployment of advanced nuclear technologies, it becomes essential to assess the potential range of severe accident consequences for locations where onsite meteorological data is not currently available.
Traditionally, the MELCOR Accident Consequences Code System (MACCS) has utilized site-specific meteorological files, generated from observations at the reactor site. However, the NRC has released a new update of MACCS enabling analysts to generate MACCS-formatted meteorological files using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data, which can be seamlessly integrated with HYSPLIT. This update allows the development of site files and corresponding weather files for any geographic location in the continental US, leveraging National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data as a source of synthetic data for use in probabilistic consequence analysis.
In this study, the authors analyze the feasibility of applying atmospheric reanalysis data for consequence analysis. Understanding how the probabilistic consequences estimated using atmospheric reanalysis data compare to those using site meteorological tower data may lead to more flexibility in performing these calculations for future situations that require special techniques. The results of this study may be applied to analyses of specific new advanced nuclear technologies and may inform severe accident analyses undertaken in the future related to generic requirements.
Keywords: atmospheric transport and dispersion, consequence analysis, MACCS, HYSPLIT, nuclear 1 Although this paper reports on efforts by staff of the NRC, the information and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the NRC. Neither the U.S. Government nor any agency thereof, nor any of their employees, make any warranty, expressed or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for any third partys use.