ML22070A157
| ML22070A157 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 11/12/2021 |
| From: | Chang Y, Segarra J, Jing Xing NRC/RES/DRA/HFRB |
| To: | |
| Xing, Jing - 301 415 2410 | |
| References | |
| Download: ML22070A157 (17) | |
Text
IDHEAS Suite for Human Reliability Analysis Y. James Chang, Jing Xing, Jonathan DeJesus Segarra U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Presented at PSA 2021 Conference November 7 - 12
Background
- The Integrated Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS) was developed under an NRC Commissions direction in 2006 to evaluate the different human reliability models to propose either a single model for the NRC to use or guidance on which model(s) should be used in specific circumstances.
- The NRC staff chose the a single model path - IDHEAS model
- Today, IDHEAS is a model with many application components (collectively, IDHEAS Suite) for performing human reliability analysis (HRA) 2
IDHEAS Suite Element Description Status IDHEAS-G General methodology - the single model Complete IDHEAS-AtPower A HEP calculation method for internal events at- Complete power HRA applications IDHEAS-ECA A HEP calculation method. Originally developed Complete for the event and condition analysis (ECA) but was expanded for all HRA applications.
IDHEAS-DATA Data basis Draft complete IDHEAS-DEP Dependency analysis Draft complete IDHEAS-TIME Estimate the uncertainty distribution of the time- In-process required IDHEAS-REC Error recovery TBD IDHEAS-ECA Facilitate the implementation of IDHEAS-ECA 3 V1.2 In software tool progress
IDHEAS-G (General Methodology, NUREG-2198)
- Recommended for NRC use by NRCs Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
- Developed on the foundation of a large psychological literature review (NUREG-2114)
- Include an HRA process and a toolbox to perform all process elements
- Provide technical basis, models, and guidance to perform all process elements (13 appendixes)
- An element could be modeled with different levels of detail and different approaches, e.g.,
- Failure modes: macrocognitive functions, cognitive processes, and cognitive mechanisms
- HEP quantification approaches: expert elicitation, data based, and model-based
- Provide equations and parameters but not the values of parameters 4
HRA Process PIF attributes of every CFM Scenario for every CT PRA context and Step 5: Calculate model list of applicable Step 4: Assess PIFs Step 1: Determine PIFs applicable to every scenario context CFM List of Step 1: HFE and its applicable Step 7:
Develop scenario narrative definition CFM(s) for Calculate Develop scenario timeline the CT(s) overall HEP HFE and its Step 2: List of CT(s) Step 3: Characterize the Step 1: Identify HFE definition Analyze tasks CT(s) and select applicable Step 1: Define HFE and identify CFMs CT(s) in HFE HFE and its definition and Step 6: Estimate parameters Step 6: Analyze HFE timeline of distribution (subset of scenario timeline, if there are Step 6: Calculate multiple HFEs in the scenario)
Step 6: Estimate parameters of distribution and Step 8:
Uncertainty and dependency analysis and documentation CFM = cognitive failure mode = error probability due to CFMs CT = critical task = error probability due to uncertainty in and HEP = human error probability = time available HFE = human failure event = time required PIF = performance-influencing factor and = mean and standard deviation of PRA = probabilistic risk assessment and = mean and standard deviation of 5
IDHEAS HEP Quantification Model (Calculate HEP of a Human Failure Event)
Main Element Sub-Elements Highlights Pt (Time Insufficiency)
- Convolution of the uncertainty distributions of the time-required and time-available Pc (Cognitive Errors)
- Critical tasks
- Cognitive basis structure
- 5 Macrocognitive functions (Detection, Understanding, Decisionmaking, Action Execution, and Interteam)
[probabilistic sum of the base PIFs effects] x [sum of the modifier PIFs effects] ÷ Error Recovery 6
IDHEAS-DATA
- Provide extensive data-basis for IDHEAS-model based HEP estimations
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is reviewing the IDHEAS-DATA draft report
- Ensure literature information is used correctly (status: PNNL completed the review)
- Determine whether the equation calculating multiple PIFs combined effects on HEP is appropriate (by 6/2022) 7
IDHEAS-TIME
- PNNL analyzes simulator data to recommend distribution for the time-required
- Data sources include EPRI, Halden HAMMLAB, KAERI, and ÚJV ez, a. s.
- Draft report available by Dec. 2021
- Only includes control room actions 8
IDHEAS-DEP (RIL-2021-14)
- Assess the dependency effects of the occurrence of HFE1 on HFE2. HFE1 occurs earlier than HFE2
- Model 3 types of dependency
- Consequential dependency, Resource-sharing dependency, and Cognitive dependency
- Include 5 relationships to assess dependency effects
- Function/system, time proximity, personnel, location, and procedure
- Three levels of analysis
- Predetermination, Screening, and Detailed
IDHEAS-DEP Predetermination Analysis (Draft Graphical User Interface) 10
IDHEAS-DEP Screening Analysis (Draft Graphical User Interface) 11
IDHEAS-DEP Screening Analysis
- Calculate the total dependency effects (Pd)
- Pd is the probabilistic sum of all applicable dependency effects
More About IDHEAS-DEP
- IDHEAS-DEP Detailed Analysis
- Requires using IDHEAS-ECA method
- The dependency effects are represented by the corresponding PIF attributes
- IDHEAS-DEP suggests the corresponding PIF Attributes for the analysts consideration
- IDHEAS-DEP status
- Report (Research Information Letter) should be available to the public in Dec. 2021 (RIL-2021-14)
- To be included in IDHEAS-ECA software tool v1.2.
13
IDHEAS-ECA Software Tool (IDHEAS-ECA RIL-2020-02)
- V1.1 is available to calculate individual HEPs
- V1.2 is scheduled to be available in Jan. 2022.
- Include IDHEAS-DEP to calculate dependent HEPs
- Fixed the found issues
- Add lognormal distributions to calculate Pt 14
Calculate Pt (IDHEAS-ECA v1.1 Screenshot) 15
Calculate Pc (IDHEAS-ECA v1.1 Screenshot) 16
Conclusion
- IDHEAS advances the cognitive basis and data basis for HRA and tie to the current cognitive and behavior science literature.
- Recommended for the NRC use by NRCs Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
- NRC plans to gradually replace SPAR-H with IDHEAS-ECA
- Methods and tools will be available to the public 17