ML22060A165

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Wgrisk Annual Meeting March 2022 - NRC PRA Use and Development - Reisi Fard, Mehdi
ML22060A165
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Issue date: 03/04/2022
From: Reisi-Fard M
NRC/RES/DRA/PRB
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Reisi-Fard, Mehdi - 301 415-3092
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U.S. NRC PSA Use and Development: 2022 Update WGRISK Annual Meeting Mehdi Reisi Fard, Ph.D., P.E.

Branch Chief Performance and Reliability Branch Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research

Risk-informed decision-making is used in NRC regulatory processes

Guidance and Standards on use of PSAs in Risk Informed Decision making New guidance (e.g., Regulatory Guides, NUREGs) is developed to support the increased use of PSAs in risk-informed activities.

2021 2022 2023 and beyond Regulatory Guidance RG 1.177, (risk-informed Technical Specifications)

Trial use RG 1.247 to endorse ASME/ANS RA-S-1.4, (Non LWRs) and NEI 20-09 RG 1.200, Rev. 4 RG 1.175 (risk-informed inservice testing)

Enhancement of guidance on the treatment of uncertainties RG 1.178 (risk-informed inservice inspection)

Catalog of state-of-practice PRA methods PRA Standards /

Industry Guidance ASME/ANS RA-S-1.4, Non LWRs ASME/ANS-RA-1.1, Level 1/LERF ASME/ANS RA-S-1.2, Level 2 ASME/ANS RA-S-1.3, Level 3 ASME/ANS RA-S-1.5, Advanced LWR ASME/ANS RA-S-1.6, low power and shutdown

Regulatory Activities:

Operating Reactors Risk-Informed Technical Specifications Completion Times (TSTF-505) 10 CFR 50.69: Risk-Informed Categorization and Treatment of Structures, Systems and Components Risk-Informed Integrated Leak Rate Testing (ILRT) Extension Risk-Informed Process for Evaluations

Regulatory Activities:

New and Advanced Reactors

  • Rulemaking activities:

Part 50 - Emergency Preparedness Requirements Part 53 - Risk Informed, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Framework Part 73 - Alternative Physical Security Requirements

Research Activities:

PSAs and Operating Experience SAPHIRE and SPAR Expand model capabilities (e.g., FLEX, IDHEAS-G ECA)

Expand detail of generic SPAR models Accident Sequence Precursor Program Data visualization dashboard More explicit consideration of external hazards risk Operating Experience Feasibility study on predictive maintenance using Machine learning/Artificial Intelligence FLEX reliability data

Research Activities:

Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment

  • Develops tools and guidance to risk-inform new and advanced reactor design basis as well as licensing and oversight of operating reactors
  • Collaborations: Federal agencies (e.g., DOE Laboratories, USGS, USACE, NOAA); Industry (e.g., EPRI);

International (e.g., IRSN, NEA/WGEV)

  • 2022 Activities:

7th Annual PFHA Research Workshop, February 18-22-25, 2022 (Virtual)

Completed Riverine Flooding PFHA Pilot Study Continue with PFHA Pilot Studies for site-scale flooding (LIP), and coastal flooding. Expect to complete these studies in Q3-2022

Recent PFHA Research Publications (2021-22)

NRC Research Information Letter (RIL) 2021 Proceedings of the 5th Annual NRC PFHA Research Workshop, https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2102/ML21027A213.pdf NRC Research Information Letter (RIL) 2022 A Simulation-Based Dynamic Analysis Approach for Modeling Plant Response to Flooding Events, https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/research-info-letters/2022/index.html NRC Research Information Letter (RIL) 2022 Technical Basis for Extending Flood Frequency Curves Beyond Current Consensus Limits, https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2204/ML22040A117.pdf NUREG-2240 - Flood Penetration Seal Testing Protocol Research, https://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr2240/index.html USGS Scientific Techniques and Methods Report 4-B6 -

Paleoflood Analyses for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessments Approaches and Review Guidelines, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm4B6 ORNL Technical Report ORNL/TM-2021/2231 - Multi-Mechanism Flood Hazard Assessment: Example Use Case Studies, https://doi.org/10.2172/1826019

Research Activities:

Fire PSA Electrical Cabinet HRRs and Fire Modeling Developing Test Plan with NIST to test Oxygen Limited fires in electrical enclosures (Summer 2022)

Planning Additional Updates to NUREG-1805 Supplements (2022)

Cable Tray Flame Spread model Multiple Transient HRR model Sprinkler and Underground Piping System Hydraulic model High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF)

NRC-RES and EPRI have formed a Working Group to update and develop more realistic HEAF Fire PRA guidance (2022)

Three New Joint NRC/EPRI Reports to be published by the WG in 2022:

HEAF Target Fragility HEAF Zone of Influence (ZOI) Modeling HEAF Fire PRA Methodology

Research Activities:

Human Reliability Analysis

  • Published RIL 2021 Integrated Human Event Analysis System Dependency Analysis Guidance (IDHEAS-DEP) - The method for conducting dependency analysis in support of IDHEAS-ECA
  • Released draft IDHEAS-DATA - The data basis behind the IDHEAS-ECA quantification. Plan to finalize as a RIL in 2022
  • Modifications have been made to IDHEAS-ECA based on user feedback and public comments. Plan to finalize NUREG in 2022

Research Activities:

Level 3 PRA Project Status Phase 1 Phase 2 Initial model/documentation Revised model/documentation Internal technical review Internal technical review L3PRA management review L3PRA management review TAG/PWROG review Model/documentation complete Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Reactor, at-power, internal events Complete Complete Complete Reactor, at-power, internal floods Complete Reactor, at-power, internal fires Complete Complete Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Reactor, at-power, seismic events Complete Complete Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Reactor, at-power, high winds Complete Complete Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Reactor, at-power, other hazards Complete N/A Reactor, LPSD, internal events Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Spent fuel pool (all hazards)

Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Phase 1 Initial model/documentation Dry cask storage (all hazards)

Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Integrated site risk (all hazards)

Phase 1 Initial model/documentation

Examples of Other Activities Development of risk tools for dry cask storage licensing Development of dashboards and Apps to facilitate risk communication CCF modeling enhancements Risk Informed awareness workshops and seminars 2022 Regulatory Information Conference

Acronyms ASME: American Society of Mechanical Engineers ANS: American Nuclear Society CCF: common cause failure CFR: Code of Federal Regulations DOE: Department of Energy ECA: event and condition assessment EPRI: Electric Power Research Institute FLEX: diverse and flexible strategies HEAF: High Energy Arcing Fault HRA: human reliability analysis HEP: human error probability HRR: heat release rate IDHEAS: Integrated Human Event Analysis System IRSN: Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire LWR: light-water reactor NEA: Nuclear Energy Agency NIST: National Institute of Standards and Technology NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NRC: Nuclear Regulatory Commission PFHA: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment PRA: probabilistic risk assessment PSA: probabilistic safety assessment RES: Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research RIL: Research Information Letter RG: Regulatory Guide SAPHIRE: Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations SPAR: Standardized Plant Analysis Risk USACE: The United States Army Corps of Engineers TSTF: Technical Specifications Task Force USGS: The United States Geological Survey WGEV: Working Group on External Events

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