ML22060A165

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Wgrisk Annual Meeting March 2022 - NRC PRA Use and Development - Reisi Fard, Mehdi
ML22060A165
Person / Time
Issue date: 03/04/2022
From: Reisi-Fard M
NRC/RES/DRA/PRB
To:
Reisi-Fard, Mehdi - 301 415-3092
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Download: ML22060A165 (14)
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U.S. NRC PSA Use and Development: 2022 Update

WGRISK Annual Meeting

Mehdi Reisi Fard, Ph.D., P.E.

Branch Chi ef Performance and Reli abi lity Branch Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Risk-informed decision-making is used in NRC regulatory processes Guidance and New gui dance (e.g., Regulatory Standards on use of Guides, NUREGs) is developed to PSAs in Risk Informed support the increased use of PSAs in Decision making risk-i nformed acti v ities.

2021 2022 2023 and beyond Regulatory RG 1.177, (risk-informed Trial use RG 1.247 to endorse RG 1.200, Rev. 4 Guidance Technical Specifications) ASME/ANS RA-S-1.4, (Non LWRs) and NEI 20-09 RG 1.175 (risk-informed Enhancement of guidance inservice testing) on the treatment of uncertainties RG 1.178 (risk-informed Catalog of state-of-practice inservice inspection) PRA methods PRA Standards / ASME/ANS RA-S-1.4, Non ASME/ANS-RA-1.1, ASME/ANS RA-S-1.2, I ndustry LWRs Level 1/LERF Level 2 Guidance ASME/ANS RA-S-1.3, Level 3 ASME/ANS RA-S-1.5, Advanced LWR ASME/ANS RA-S-1.6, low power and shutdown Regulatory Activities:

Operating Reactors

  • Risk-I nformed Technical Specifications Completion Times (TSTF-505)
  • 10 CFR 50.69: Risk-I nformed Categorization and Treatment of Structures, Systems and Components
  • Risk-I nformed I ntegrated Leak Rate Testing (I LRT) Extension
  • Risk-I nformed Process for Evaluations Regulatory Activities:

New and Advanced Reactors

  • Expected publication of RG 1.247, A cc eptability of Probabilistic Risk A ssessment Results for A dvanced Non-Light Water Reactor Risk-I nformed A ctivities, in 2022.
  • Rulemaking activities:
  • Part 53 - Risk Informed, Technology-Inclusive Regulatory Framework
  • Part 73 - Alternative Physical Security Requirements
  • Licensing reviews: Kairos Hermes test reactor; pre-application activities Research Activities:

PSAs and Operating Experience

Expand model capabilities (e.g., FLEX, I DHEAS-G ECA)

SAPHIRE and SPAR Expand detail of generic SPAR models

Accident Sequence Data visualization dashboard More explicit consideration of Precursor Program external hazards risk

Feasibility study on predictive Operating maintenance using Machine learning/Artificial Intelligence Experience FLEX reliability data Research Activities:

Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment

  • Dev elops tools and guidance to risk-inform new and adv anced reactor design basis as well as licensing and ov ersight of operating reactors
  • Collaborations: Federal agencies (e.g., DOE Laboratories, USGS, USACE, NOAA); I ndustry (e.g., EPRI );

I nternational (e.g., I RSN, NEA/WGEV)

  • 2022 Activities:

- 7th Annual PFHA Research Workshop, February 18-22-25, 2022 (Virtual)

- Completed Riv erine Flooding PFHA Pilot Study

- Continue with PFHA Pilot Studies for site-scale flooding (LIP), and coastal flooding. Expect to complete these studies in Q3-2022 Recent PFHA Research Publications (2021-22)

  • USGS Scientific Techniques and Methods Report 4-B6 -

Paleoflood Analyses for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessments Approaches and Review Guidelines, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/tm4B6

Fire PSA

  • Electrical Cabinet HRRs and Fire Modeling

- Developing Test Plan with NIST to test Oxygen Limited fires in electrical enclosures (Summer 2022)

  • Planning Additional Updates to NUREG-1805 Supplements (2022)

- Cable Tray Flame Spread model

- Multiple Transient HRR model

- Sprinkler and Underground Piping System Hydraulic model

  • High Energy Arcing Fault (HEAF)

- NRC-RES and EPRI have formed a Working Group to update and develop more realistic HEAF Fire PRA guidance (2022)

- Three New Joint NRC/EPRI Reports to be published by the WG in 2022:

  • HEAF Target Fragility
  • HEAF Zone of I nfluence (ZOI ) Modeling
  • HEAF Fire PRA Methodology Research Activities:

Human Reliability Analysis

Event Analysis System Dependency Analysis

Guidance (IDHEAS-DEP) - The method for

conducting dependency analysis in support of

IDHEAS-ECA

  • Released draft I DHEAS-DATA - The data basis

behind the IDHEAS-ECA quantification. Plan to

finalize as a RIL in 2022

  • Modifications hav e been made to IDHEAS-ECA

based on user feedback and public

comments. Plan to finalize NUREG in 2022 Phase 1 Phase 2 Research Activities: I nitial model/documentation Revised model/documentation

Internal technical review Internal technical review Level 3 PRA Project L3PRA management review L3PRA management review Status TAG/PWROG review Model/documentation complete

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Reactor, at-power, internal events Complete Complete Complete Reactor, at-power, internal floods Complete

Reactor, at-power, internal fires Complete Complete Phase 2Revised model/documentation

Reactor, at-power, seismic events Complete Complete Phase 2Revised model/documentation

Reactor, at-power, high winds Complete Complete Phase 2Revised model/documentation

Reactor, at-power, other hazards Complete N/A Reactor, LPSD, internal events Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 2 Revised model/documentation Revised model/documentation Revised model/documentation Spent fuel pool (all hazards) Phase 2 Phase 1 Revised model/documentation Initial model/documentation

Dry cask storage (all hazards) Phase 2Revised model/documentation

Integrated site risk (all hazards) Phase 1Initial model/documentation Examples of Other Activities

  • Development of risk tools for dry cask storage licensing
  • Development of dashboards and Apps to facilitate risk communication
  • CCF modeling enhancements
  • Risk I nformed awareness workshops and seminars
  • 2022 Regulatory I nformation Conference Acronyms
  • ASME: American Society of Mechanical
  • NIST: National Institute of Standards and Engineers Technology
  • ANS: American Nuclear Society
  • NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric
  • CCF: common cause fail ure Administration
  • CFR: Code of Federal Regulations
  • NRC: Nuclear Regulatory Commission
  • DOE: Department of Energy
  • PFHA: Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment
  • ECA: event and condition assessment
  • EPRI : Electric Power Research I nstitute
  • PSA: probabilistic safety assessment
  • FLEX: diverse and flexible strategies
  • RES: Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
  • HEAF: High Energy Arcing Fault
  • RI L: Research I nformation Letter
  • HRA: human reliability analysis
  • RG: Regulatory Guide
  • HEP: human error probability
  • SAPHI RE: Systems Analysis Programs for
  • HRR: heat release rate Hands-on I ntegrated Reliability Evaluations
  • I DHEAS: I ntegrated Human Event Analysis
  • SPAR: Standardized Plant Analysis Risk System
  • USACE: The United States Army Corps of
  • I RSN: I nstitut de radioprotection et de sûreté Engineers nucléaire
  • TSTF: Technical Specifications Task Force
  • LWR: light-w ater reactor
  • USGS: The United States Geological Survey
  • NEA: Nuclear Energy Agency
  • WGEV: Working Group on External Events Questions?
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