ML22060A162
| ML22060A162 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 03/04/2022 |
| From: | Reisi-Fard M NRC/RES/DRA/PRB |
| To: | |
| Reisi-Fard, Mehdi - 301 415 3072 | |
| References | |
| Download: ML22060A162 (6) | |
Text
Treatment of Uncertainties for Novel Aspects of Risk Analyses March 4, 2022 Mehdi Reisi Fard Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
Goal of The Proposed CAPS Assess how members currently treat uncertainties especially in risk analyses and risk-informed decision-making for new and advanced reactor designs, and to survey member views as to potential improvements in treatment considering the relative lack of operational experience.
While it is anticipated to observe more instances of challenges related to the lack of operational experience in the treatment of uncertainties for new and advanced reactors, unique or novel aspects of risk analyses or risk-informed decision-making for the traditional reactor designs and operations are included in the scope of this task.
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Objectives Develop an overview of ongoing activities (tools, research, or applications) related to the treatment of uncertainties in PSAs and risk-informed decision; Identify decision-making cases where the specific methods for treatment of uncertainties provided additional insights to a decision or the lack of methods posed challenges to decision-making; Identify the practical challenges related to various aspects of uncertainties in risk-informed decision making and potential means for addressing these challenges.
Develop a preliminary outline of an application (technical analyses and decision-making) benchmark as groundwork for a potential follow-on task 3
Justification Most current reactor designs have a significant base of experience in design, operation and analysis.
New and advanced reactors have significantly different design and operational features and a much smaller base of experience in treating uncertainties in PSAs. Because of this, there is likely more uncertainty in these PSAs, and this uncertainty is likely to derive from different areas.
The established tools to treat uncertainty in PSAs may need to be re-revaluated and enhanced for new and advanced reactor designs or for novel aspects of risk analyses for the traditional reactor designs.
WGRISK, whose members represent a wide range of views, is well-suited for facilitating discussions of current practice, identifying follow-on activities, and thereby preparing member countries for the future.
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Scope The proposed activity will consider all scopes of nuclear power plant PSA, the associated nuclear safety issues and the diverse decisions made by stakeholders including licensees and regulatory bodies. This includes the consideration of uncertainty in Level 1/2/3 PSA, any plant operational modes, internal events and external hazards, as well as diverse specific concerns such as spent fuel pools, equipment recovery, portable equipment deployment, accident management, and site-level risk.
The conclusions will be mainly based on the results of a survey and follow-on workshop.
Achieving objectives will require inputs from PSA experts and decision-makers.
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Milestones Phase 1 (18 months duration):
Initial formation of a task core group Preparation of an annotated report outline (providing the structure for the member survey and literature review)
Preparation and distribution of a survey and corresponding report structure Collection of survey responses Literature review and analysis of survey results WGRISK Technical Note summarizing survey results Task meeting Phase 2 (duration 24 months):
Task meeting - survey findings and preparation of the second phase Workshop preparation Conducting workshop including identification of issues for further enhancements and extensions Preparation of draft Task Report Task meeting Documentation (final Task Report) for approval 6