ML20237E580
| ML20237E580 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 12/14/1987 |
| From: | Luloff A MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF, NEW HAMPSHIRE, UNIV. OF, DURHAM, NH |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20237E549 | List: |
| References | |
| OL, NUDOCS 8712290068 | |
| Download: ML20237E580 (9) | |
Text
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1.o 00LKETED USNRC UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION O
OFFICE OF HCEEi Ar :
l Before Administrative Judges:
00CKE1NG4 iU vict Ivan W.
Smith, Chairperson 3RAEH Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
Dr. Jerry Harbour l
)
)
In the Matter of
)
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW
)
Docket Nos.
)
50-443-444-OL (Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2)
)
(Off-site EP)
)
December 14, 1987
)
SUPPLEMENTAL DIRECT TESTIMONY OF DR. ALBERT E.
LULOFF ON BEHALF OF JAMES M.
SHANNON, ATTORNEY GENERAL FOR THE COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS, CONCERNING VARIOUS MATTERS RAISED IN THE "ETE" AND "SH[LTERING" CONTENTIONS I.
IDENTIFICATION OF WITNESS Q.
Please state your name and position.
A.
My name is Albert E. Luloff.
I am Associate Professor of Rural Sociology and Community Development, and Community Development Program Coordinator, in the Department of Resource Economics and Community Development at the University of New Hampshire.
Q.
Briefly summarize your experience and professional 1
qualifications.
i 8712290068 % 2 O
43 pDR ADOCK PDR T
I
l A.
I received a B.S.
degree in Rural Sociology from l
Cornell University, a M.S.
degree in Sociology from North l
Carolina State University, and a Ph.D. in Rural Sociology in 1977 from the Pennsylvania State University Since 1977 I have been employed at the University of New Hampshire, where my responsibilities have been equally divided between teaching and research.
My research has emphasized the study of the structure and impact of population redistribution and migration on New Hampshire Communities.
As part of my research effort I have developed a large, integrated data base of information on minor civil divisions in the state.
This data base supports much of my work on community and population trends within New Hampshire.
I am the editor or author of five books and monographs and over fifty published articles and research reports.
Many of these publications concern population migration and its impacts.
For a more detailed description of my background, experience and professional qualifications, see my resume, which is attached to this testimony (Attachment 1).
II.
TOH III AND SAPL 34--POPULATION GPOWTH Q.
What is the purpose of this testimony?
A.
In this portion of my testimony I will address certain matters raised in Basis (E) to Town of Hampton Revised Contention III to Revision 2 ("TOH III") and SAPL Contention No. 34 ("SAPL 34") concerning the rapid rate of growth in the seventeen (17) New Hampshire communities in the Seabrook - _ _ _ - _ - _ _ -
Station _EPZ.
TOH III/ Basis E asserts that those who computed the evacuation time estimates for inclusion in New Hampshire emergency plans " failed to account for this reasonably anticipated and substantial growth in population" and, therefore,'have'" presented a plan which.
. will soon be outdated and will not serve as a reasonable basis for~ emergency planning."
SAPL 34 challenges the accuracy of population size and distribution estimates utilized in the New Hampshire Radiological Emergency Response Plan (NHRERP) Rev. 2 (Aug.
1986).
My testimony here is intended to lay a foundation for a realistic appraisal of these issues by describing the best
' demographic evidence available regarding current population and growth rates in the seventeen New Hampshire EPZ communities.
I understand that my pre-filed testimony on these topics was stricken by the Atomic Safety and Licensing Board because it contained population forecasts out to the year 2010.
This supplemental testimony presents only my estimates of the growth j
i which has occurred to 1988 from the population levels utilized in the NHRERP Rev.
2.
~
Q.
Have you recently conducted any studies or analyses of the current population and growth rates in the seventeen New Hampshire EPZ communities?
A.
Yes, I have.
At the request of the Department of the Attorney General for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, I recently completed a report which describes the growth rates in i
the seventeen EPZ communities and, using those rates, developed i
a series of population forecasts for each of these communities.
~*
Q..
Which seventeen communities are these?'
A.
- The New Hampshire EPZ includes the towns of Brentwood, East Kingsto'n', Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Kensington, Kingston, New Castle, Newfields, Newton, North Hampton, Rye,-Seabrook, South Hampton, Stratham, and the city.
of Portsmouth.
Q.
You mentioned a report.
Was it in writing?
A.
Yes.
A copy of my report is attached to my pre-filed testimony as Attachment 2.
I understand that this report has also.been stricken by the Board.
Q.
Would you summarize your findings regarding the growth rates in-these seventeen communities.
A.
Certainly.
The basic finding is that, as a whole, the permanent population in the seventeen New Hampshire EPZ communities is expanding very rapidly.
Rockingham County, home of the New Hampshire EPZ communities, has been the fastest growing county in the state since 1950, experiencing a 172%
increase during the period 1950-1980.
Using the growth rates
.obtained during the period from 1970 to 1985 for each of the seventeen New Hampshire EPZ communities, I have projected that their combined population will have grown to 95,510 by 1988.
This exceeds by 4.3% the population estimate of 91,601 utilized in the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) study contained in Volume 6 of the NHRERP, Rev. 2.
I understand that estimate (91,601) i is'a projection to 1986 made by the authors of Volume 6 based
)
L on 1985 town clerk estimates.
Those 1985 town-by-town 4-
estimates were multiplied by a growth rate the authors obtained using State data for the years 1980 and 1985.
See Table 2-1 on p.
2-9 of Volume 6.
In my opinion, that is too short a period-upon which to develop growth rates for this area.
Instead, the growth rates I used in my analysis are derived from 1970-1985 data.
Q.
Are all the New Hampshire EPZ communities growing at about the same rate?
A.
No, there are some significant differences, which the chart below can best describe.
POPULATION FORECASTS 1985 1970-85 1988 Compounded Interest Rates Brentwood 2183 0.02681 2363 E.
Kingston 1269 0.02805 1379 Exeter 12,040 0.02041 12,792 Greenland 2232 0.01505 2334 Hampton 11,506 0.02443 12,370 Hampton Falls 1485 0.01134 1536 Kensington 1376 0.01858 1454 Kingston 4890 0.03588 5435 New Castle 879
-0.00689 861 Newfields 848 0.00039 849 tiewton 3600 0.04280 4082 N.
Hampton 3670 0.00795 3758 Portsmouth 29,000 0.00804 29,705 Rye 4859 0.01167 5031 Seabrook 6672 0.05350 7801 S. Hampton 651 0.01033 671 Stratham 3113 0.04932 3597 Area Total 90,273 95,510 l
l L__________
l l
.e Q.
Applicants.have submitted direct testimony on the topic of evacuation time estimates, and in that testimony they report on some recent ETE calculations performed.
Were any more recent population figures utilized in these calculations?
A.
No.
If I correctly understand paragraph "h" on p.
41 of that testimony, the " updated ETE studies" did not utilize any different population figures from those utilized in Volume j
6, i.e.,
91,601 permanent residents in the seventeen New Hampshire communities and 50,593 residents in the six l
Massachusetts communities.
l Q.
Can you summarize your findings regarding the 1988 1
population of the New Hampshire portion of the EPZ versus the l
population figures utilized in the Volume 6.ETE study?
1 A.
Yes.
The table below sets forth this comparison.
1986 Pop. Est. in Luloff Est.
ETE Stutt 1988
% Increase 17 New Hamshire Communities 91,601 95,510
+4.3%
l l
1 l 1 1
P O'
. UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 00fhEhEb NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 37 DEC 18 P3:28 0FFICE Of SECEt Ild f DOCKETING & SEiiviCf.
BRANCS
)
In the Matter of
)
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW
)
Docket No.(s)
)
50-443-444-OL (Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2)
)
(Off-site EP)
)
December 14, 1987
)
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I, Allan R. Fierce, hereby certify that on December 14, 1987, I made service of the following documents:
1.
Errata to Testimony of Dr. Albert E.
Luloff; 2.
Corrected Testimony of Dr. Albert E. Luloff on Behalf of James M.
Shannon, Attorney General for the Commenvealth of Massachusetts, Concerning Various Matters Raised in the "ETE" and
" Sheltering" Contentions; 3.
Corrected Attachment 4 to the Corrected Testimony of Dr. Albert E. Luloff; and 4.
Supplemental Direct Testimony of Dr. Albert E.
Luloff on Behalf of James M. Shannon, Attorney General for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, by mailing copies thereof, postage prepaid, by first class mail i
or, as indicated by an asterisk, by hand delivery at the ASLB Hearings in Concord, New Hampshire:
4.
_t
- Ivan Smith, Chairman
- Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
Atomic Safety &' Licensing Board Atomic Safety & Licensing Board U.S. Nuclear Regulatory U~S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commission 1717 H Street 1717 H. Street Washington, DC 20555 Washington, DC 20555
- Dr. Jerry Harbour
- Sherwin E. Turk, Esq.
Atomic. Safety & Licensing Board Office of the Executive Legal U.S.-Nuclear Regulatory-Director Commission-U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission-1717 H Street Tenth Floor
' Washington,'DC 20555-7735 Old Georgetown Road Bethesda, MD 20814
- H.
Joseph Flynn, Esq.
- Stephen E. Merrill Assistant General Counsel Attorney General Office of General Counsel George Dana Bisbee Federal Emergency Management Assistant Attorney General Agency 1 Office of the Attorney General 500 C Street, S.W.
25 Capitol Street Washington, DC 20472 Concord, NH 03301 Docketing and Service
- Robert A. Backus, Esq.
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Backus, Meyer & Solomon Commicsion 116 Lowell Street Washington, DC.
20555 P.O. Box 516 Manchester, NH 03106 Atomic Safety & Licensing
- Jane Doughty Appeal Board Panel Seacoast. Anti-Pollution League U.S. Nuclear' Regulatory 5 Market Street Commission Portsmouth, NH 03801 Washington, DC 20555 Atomic Safety & Licensing
- Paul McEachern, Esq
-Board Panel Matthew T. Brock, Esq.
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Shaines & McEachern Commission 25 Maplewood Avenue Washington, DC 20555 P.O. Box 360 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Sandra Gavutis, Chairperson Senator Gordon J.
Humphrey l
Board of Selectmen U.S.
Senate RFD 1, Box 1154 Washington, DC 20510 Rte. 107 (Attn:
Tom Burack)
E.
Kingston, NH 03827 l
Senator Gordon J. Humphrey
- William Lord 1 Eagle Square, Suite 507 Board of Selectmen Concord, NH 03301 Town Hall (Attn: Herb Boynton)
Friend Street Amesbury, MA 01913
O V
Diane Curran, Esq.
- Thomas G.
Dignan, Esq.
Harmon & Weiss R.K Gadd III, Esq.,
Suite 430 Ropes & Gray 2001 S Street, N.W.
225 Franklin Street Washington, DC 20009 Boston, MA 02110
- Edward A.
Thomas Federal Emergency Management Agency 442 J.W.
McCormack (POCH)
Boston, MA 02109 s
e Allan R.
Fiercel Assistant Attorney General Nuclear Safety Unit Department of the Attorney General One Ashburton Place Boston, MA 02108-1698 (617) 727-2220 Dated:
December 14, 1987 I
I