ML20235T876
| ML20235T876 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Pilgrim |
| Issue date: | 08/25/1988 |
| From: | KLD ASSOCIATES, INC. |
| To: | BOSTON EDISON CO. |
| References | |
| CON-#189-8166 2.206, NUDOCS 8903080510 | |
| Download: ML20235T876 (672) | |
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l Wepared by FLD Arscciates, Inc. 3M Broadway Runtir:9 ton Station, NY 12'156 i Prepared fur ; Boston Edfson Co. Offsite Esergency PreparedtMs Group 59 Irdustrial Park Road Plymouth, MA 02300 l s l August 25, 1980 Rcv. 0 O G $O3
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l l FOREWORD The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management Plan for > Pilgrim Station presented herein is a document which has I undergone extensive reviews since August, 1987 when a draft report was issued. The contents of the report were updated to reflect comments received from a variety of sources; State and local agencies, town RERP committees, and the general public. The contents of the RERPs and Implementation Procedures, developed to date, were used to update the planning assumption's utilized. The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management - Plan remains a "living document" to be revised as planning assumptions change, new information becomes available, or as population and development patterns within the area change over time. j 1 This document references the use of three reception centers; Bridgewater State College, Taunton State Hospital, and a proposed site in Wellesley. The proposed Wellesley site is currently ; being studied to determine its feasibility. It is important to note that the number and location of reception centers does not effect the ETE as long as the reception centers are located.a sufficient distance from the Emergency Planning Zone boundary. 1
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l Pilgrim Station Evacuation Time Estimates-and J Traffic Management Plan Update List of Effective Pages Table of Contents - i to xiii Rev. O Chapter 1 1-1 to 1-10 Rev. O Chapter 2 2-1 to 2-48 Rev. O Chapter 3 3-1 to 3-11 Rev. O Chapter 4 4-1 to 4-26 Rev. 0 , Chapter 5 5-1 to 5-20 Rev. O Chapter 6 6-1.to 6-3 Rev. O Chapter 7 7-1 to 7-5 Rev. O Chapter 8 8-1 to 8-10 Rev. O Chapter 9 9-1 to 9-62 Rev. O Chapter 10 10-1 to 10-35 Rev. O Chapter 11 11-1 to 11-5 Rev. O Chapter 12 12-1 to 12-2 Rev. O Appendix A A-1 to A-5 ' Rev. O Appendix B B-1 to B Rev. 0 - Appendix.'C C-1 to C-7 ** Rev. 0.. Appendix D - D-1 to D-8 Rev. O Appendix E E-1 to'E-19 Rev. O Appendix F F-1 to F-5 Rev. O ; Appendix G G-1 to G-18 Rev. O Appendix H H-1 to H-4 Rev. O Appendix I I-l to I-185 Rev. O Appendix J J-1 to J-6 Rev. O Appendix K K-1 to K-5 Rev. O Appendix L L-1 to L-62 Rev. O Appendix M M-1 to M-29 Rev. O Appendix N N-1 to N-12 Rev. O Appendix o-: 0-1 to 0-36 Rev. 0 l 1
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TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Title Pace
- 1. INTRODUCTION 1-1 1.1 Overview of the Plan Update Process 1-1 1.2 Description of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) l-4 1.3 Preliminary Activities 1-4 2 .. . DEMAND ESTIMATION '
2-1 Trip Generation; Permanent Residents; Seasonal Residents and Transients; Summer Residents; Tourists at Beaches, Parks and Historical Sites; Tourists at Hotels and Motels; Tourists at Camps and Campsites; Estimation of Day-Trippers and Elimination of Double-Counting; Boaters; Employees; other Vehicles
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY 3-1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections; Capacity Estimation Along Sections of Highway; General Considerations; Application to Pilgrim EPZ; Two-Lane Roads; .
Freeway Capacity; Freeway Ramps; Fog; Link Capacities
. 4'. : ESTIMATION OF TRIP' GENERATION TIME 4-1 Background; Fundamental Considerations; Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5; Time Distribution of the Notification Process; Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution; Algorithm No. 1; Computed Time Distribution of Event k+1; Trip Generation Distributions for Week-end Scenarios; Trip Generation Dist'ribution for Permanent Residents, for Weekday Scenarios; Snow Clearance Time Distribution
- 5. ESTIMATED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS 5-1
- 6. TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT TACTICS 6-1
- 7. TRAFFIC ROUTING PLANS 7-1
- 8. ACCESS CONTROL WITHIN, AND AT THE PERIPHERY OF, THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) AND DIVERSION ROUTES 8-1 Identification and Installation of Control Devices i Rev. 0 S
TABLE OF CONTENTS (cont.) Section Title Pace
- 9. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR GENERAL POPULATION 9-1 Discussion of ETE; Example 1; Example 2; Sensitivity Tests; Slower Rates of Accident Escalation; Effects of Traffic Accidents; Effects of Varying Snowfall Intensity Levels; Effects of Varying Capacity Factors; Effects of Late Manning of Traffic and Access Control -
Points; Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation (Region 1, Scenario 1) ; Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation (Region 1, Scenario 5); Evacuation Rates; Summary of Evacuation Time Analysis
- 10. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS 10-1 Residents and Transients With No Vehicles Available; Bus Transit Concept of Operations; Calculation of Transit Route Travel Times; Schools and Special Facilities; Special Facilities; Emergency Medical. Service (EMS)
Vehicles; Conclusions -
- 11. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS 11-1 Tow Vehicles
- 12. CONFIRMATION TIME -
12-1 i Summary of ETE APPENDIX A - Glossary of Terms A-1 APPENDIX B - Traffic Assignment Model B-1 APPENDIX C - Traffic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV C-1 APPENDIX D - Detailed Description of Study Procedure D-1 APPENDIX E - Supporting Data E-1 APPENDIX F - Telephone Survey Instrument F-1 APPENDIX G - Tabulations of Telephone Survey Data G-1 2 APPENDIX H - 1980 Census Data H-1 APPENDIX I - Traffic and Access Control Sketches I-l 11 Rev. 0
TABLE OF CONTENTS (conc.) I
-Sectio 2 Title ' ace !
I APPENDIX J - Description of Evacuation Routes J-l APPENDIX K - Evacuation Route Maps K-1
- . APPENDIX L - Traffic and Access Control Summary Tables L-1 APPENDIX M - Estimated Traffic Demands at all origin Centroids, Leading Rates and origin-Destination Patterns M-1 APPENDIX N - Network Link Attributes N-1 l
- l. APPENDIX 0 - Bus Transit Operations 0-1 1
l I k iii Rev. O i
LIST OF FIGURES No. Title Pace 1-1 General Site Area 1-5 3 i 1-2 Evacuation Network Schematic l-9 l 2-1 Trip Generation Time Distributions for the General Population 2-4 2-2 Household Size Within Pilgrim Station EPZ 2-8 l 2-3 Auto Ownership of Households Within Pilgrim Station EPZ 2-9 2-4 Permanent Residents 2-12 2-5 Permanent Resident Vehicles 2-13 2-6 Transient Population - Scenarios 1, 2 2-35 2-7 Transient Vehicles - Scenarios 1, 2 2-36 l 2-8 Employees within the EPZ Who Live outside the EPZ 2-46 2-9 Employee Vehicles Which Jpin is the Evacuation " - 2-47 3-1 Fundamental Relationship between Volume and Density 3-5 4-1 Events and Activities Preceding the j Evacuation 4-4 4-2 Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions 4-18 5-1 Pilgrim Station Emergency Response Planning Areas 5-5 5-2 Employee Population - Scenarios 1, 2 5-11 5-3 Employee Evacuating Vehicles - Scenarios 1, 2 5-12 l l 5-4 Transient Population - Scenarios 3, 4 5-13 l 5-5 Transient Population Vehicles - Scenarios 3, 4 5-14 5-6 Transient Population - Scenarios 5, 6, 7 5-15 iv Rev. O
LIST OF FIGURES , (cont.) J E2x Title Pace 5-7 Transient Population Vehicles - Scenarios 5, 6, 7 5-16 5-8 Employees - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-17 5-9 Employee Evacuating Vehicles - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-18 5-10 Transient Population - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-19 l 5-11 Transient Population Vehicles - Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-20 l 6-la Traffic Control Points-Plymouth 6-5 6-lb Traffic Control Points-Plymouth (conc.) 6-6 6-2 Traffic Control Points-Kingston 6-7 6-3 Traffic Control Points-Carver 6-8 6-4 ' Traffic Control Points-Duxbury 6-9'
. 6-5 Traffic Control. Points-Marshfield 6-10 I
8-1 Diversion Route and Access Control Cordon for Pilgrim Station Emergency Planning Zone 8-2 8-2 Access control Points-Marshfield 8-7 8-3 Access Control Points-Pembroke 8-8 B-4 Access Control Points-Hanson, Halifax, Plympton 8-9 8-5 Access Control Points-Kingston 8-10 8-6 Acpees Control Points-Carver 8-11 8-7 Access Control Points-Wareham 8-12 8-8 Access Control Points-Bourne, Sandwich 8-13 9-1 - Voluntary Evacuation Rates 9-17 v Rev. O ; 1
LIST OF FIGURES (cont.) No. Title Pace 9-2 Relationsh'ip Between Snowfall Intensity and Highway Capacity Factor 9-24 1 9-Ja Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, 1 Scenario 1, at time 0:35 after the ! Evacuation Recommendation 9-28 l 9-3b Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, l Scenario 1, at time 1:35 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-29 9-3c Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1,
. Scenario 1, at time 2:35 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-30 9-3d Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, at time 3:35 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-31 9-3e Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, at time 4:05 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-32 9-4a Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, .'
Scenario 5, at time 1:00 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-35 9-4b Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, at time 2:00 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-36 9-4c Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, f Scenario 1, at time 3:00 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-37 l 9-4d Traffic Congestion Patterns for Region 1, Scenario 1, at time 4:00 after the Evacuation Recommendation 9-38 1 9-Sa Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, scenario 1 9-40 9-5b Evscuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 2 , 9-41 9-Sc Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 3 9-42 vi Rev. 0
l LIST OF FIGURES (conc.) No. Title Pace 9-5d Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station' Region 1, Scenario 4 9-43 9-Se Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 5 9-44 9-5f Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim
. Station Region 1, Scenario 6 9-45 ,
9-5g Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 7 9-46 9-5h Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgr d m Station Region 1, Scenario 8 9-47 9-51 Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 9 9-48 9-5j Evacuation Time Estimates for Pilgrim Station Region 1, Scenario 10 9-49 10-1 Location of Public. Schools.in the Pi,lgrim, , EPZ 10-24 j 10-2 Location'of Special Facilities - Childrens Camps, Jails 10-31 10-3 Location of Special Facilities - Day Care Centers 10-32 10-4 Location of Special Facilities - Nursing Homes, Hospitals, and Habilitation Centers 10-33 1 11-1 Surveillance Patrol Routes 11-2 i
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vii Rev. O
i LIST OF TABLES E2, Title Pace l l-1 Climatic Conditions in Plymouth, MA: 1951-1980 1-6 . 1 2-L Estimated Permanent Resident Population and Number of Eva,cuating Vehicles 2-10 2-2 Estimated Population - Summer Residents 2-14 2-3 Estimated Population - Beaches and Ponds 2-15 2-4 Estimated Population - Parks, Historic Sites 2-22 2-5 Estimated Population - Hotels and Motels 2-24 2-6 Estimated Population - Camps and Campsites 2-26 2-7A Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Plymouth 2-27 2-7B Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Kingston 2-28 2-7C Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number
' of Transients in -Carver 2-29 2-7D Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Duxbury 2-30 j l
2-7E Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number l of Transients in Marshfield .2-31 l 2-8 Estimated Boating Population 2-33 I 2-9 Summary of Transient Population 2-34 2-10 1987 Estimated Employment within the Pilgrim EPZ 2-38 2-11 1988 Estimated Number of Workers within the Pilgrim EPZ 2-39 2-12 Comparison of 1988 Worker Estimater, Based upon Census Data and Telephone Survey 2-40 2-13 Employee Origin-Destination Trip Table 2-41 viii Rev. 0
LIST OF TABLE ( (cont.) H2 Title Pace 2-14 Estimated Number of Employees Who Enter the EPZ to Work and the Associated Number of Vehicles 2-43 2-15 Estimated Number of Employees Who Enter the EPZ and the Number of Their Vehicles That Will Evacuate 2-44 2-16 Route 3 Traffic Estimates 2-45 4-1 Computed Trip Generation Cumulative Distributions (percent) from Start of Notification 4-15 4-2 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-end Scenarios 4-19 4-2a Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Boating Population (Distribution E ) 4-20 4-3 Computed Trip Generation Time Distribution for the Mid-week, Mid-day Scenario , 4 (Distribution F) 4-21 4-4 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-day Scenarios (Dist. F) 4-22 4-5 Distribution of Snow Clearance Time: Distribution 5 . 4-24 4-6 Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Inclement Weather, Snow, scenarios (Distributions G, H, I) 4-26 5-1 Description of Pilgrim Emergency Response l Planning Areas 5-2 l 5-2 Regional Evacuation Groupings 5-6 5-3 Descriptions of Evacuation Scenarios 5-7 5-4 Percent of Population Groups for Various
, Scenarios _
5-9 6-1 Identification of Traffic Control Points Within the EPZ 6-3 ix Rev. 0
LIST OF TABLES (cont.) E2 Title Pace 7-1 Re*cipients of Traffic Management Plans 7-5 8-1 Identification of Access Control Points at the EPZ Boundary 8-5 8-2 Identification of'Those TCP Which Take on the Added Role of ACP When the Indicated Regions are Evacuated 8-15 , 9-1 Definitions of Evacuation Scenarios 1-10 9-2 . l 9-2 Regional Evacuation Groupings 9-3 l 9-3 Description of the Emergency Response Planning Subareas of the Pilgrim j Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) 9-4 9-4 Estimated Times to Evacuate from within 2 Miles of Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued to the Indicated Regions 9-5
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9-5 Estimated Times to Evacuate from within-5 Miles of Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued to the Indicated Regions 9-7 l 9-6 Estimated Times to Evacuate from within i 10 Miles of Pilgrim Station after the l Evacuation Recommendation is issued to ' the Indicated Regions 9-9 9-7 Estimated Times to Evacuate from within the Pilgrim Station EPZ after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued to i 1 the Indicated Regions 9-11 9-8 Estimated Times to Evacuate from within the Associated Area about the Pilgrim Station after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued to the Indicated Regiops 9-13 9-9 Evacuation Time Estimates for Scenarios lA and 2A: Summer, Weekend, Evening 9-15 9-10a Summary of Resu'lts of Evacuation Times Analysis , Scenarios 1 and 2 9-51 ' x Rev. 0
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LIST OF TABLES (cont.) E2, Title Pace 9-10b' Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 3 and 4 , 9-53 9-10c Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 5 and 6 9-55 9-10d Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 5'and 7 9-57' - 9-10e Summary of Results of-Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 8 and 9 9-59 9-10f Summary of Results of Evacuation Times Analysis - Scenarios 8 and 10 .- 9-61 10-1 Number of Cars per Household by Household size - Plymouth 10-3 10-2 Number of Cars per Household by Household size - Kingston 10-4 10-3 Number of Cars per Household by Household . Size - Csrver . 10-5 10-4 Number of Cars per Household by Household Size - Duxbury 10-6 10-5 Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Requiring Transit Who Do Not Reside in Special. Facilities 10-7 10-6 Calculated Number of Persons R6 quiring Transit 10-10 10-7 'I stimated Transit Requirements 10-13 10-8 Geographic Distribution of Transportation Resources Identified by Letters of Agreement 10-15 10-9 Time Estimates for Supplemental Bus Evacuation Activities 10-16 1 10-10 Results of Analysis to obtain Bus Route Times for Transit-Dependent Persons Within the EPZ - 10-20 xi Rev. 0
LIST OF TABLES (conc.) ((g . - Title Pace 10-11 Evacuation Time Estimates for the Transit- )
+ , Dependent Population Within the Entire i EPZ 10-22 10-12 School Enrollments and Maximum Transportation Requirements 10-25 10-13 Average Route Speeds During Evacuation; Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather,
, (Scenario 5) 10-29 10-14 School Evacuation Time Estimates Requirements for One Round Trip 10-30 11-1 Recommended Tow Truck Locations 11-5 l l l A
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. a LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit Title Pace 2-1 Estimation of Persons per Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents 2-6 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey Beach: Green Harbor and Brant Rock 2-17 {
l 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey ) Beach: Duxbury 2-18 1 1' 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey Beach: Plymouth 2-19 l 2-2 Results of Beach Utilization Survey Beach: Whitehorse, Priscilla and Manomat 2-20 7-1 Letter to Police Chiefs 7-3 i 8-1 General Provisions of the MUTCD 8-6 1 8-2 Excerpts from MUTCD Section G: Signing , for Civil Defense 8-7 8-3 . Excerpts from the MUTCD on Barricades 8-8
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8-4 . Excerpts from the MUTCD on' Cone Design 4 and Application 8-9 12-1 Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of ; Evacuation 12-2 I 1
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e xiii Rev. O END
- 1. INTRODUCTION This report describes the analyses undertaken, and the results obtained, in a study to update the existing Evacuation Plan for pilgrim station, located in Plymouth, Massachusetts. This plan is designed to protect the health and safety of the public in the event an evacuation is ordered as a protective action in response to an accident at Pilgrim Station.
The Evacuation Time Estimate and Traffic Management Plan presented herein is not based on the use of any specific number'of reception centers. It should be understood that the number of reception centers does not affect evacuation time estimates as long as the reception centers are located a sufficient distance from the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary. The reception centers cited in this document are located more than ten miles from the EPZ ; boundary. 1 In the performance of this effort; all available prior- 1 documentation relevant to evacuation planning issues was reviewed, f In addition, work products developed by other consultants were ! incorporated, where appropriate. Finally, local and State public ] cfficials, as well as private citizens, were interviewed. In particular, we wish to express our appreciation to all the Police chiefs of the communities within the Pilgrim Station Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) who provided valued guidance in the development of this plan. ' -
. l Other guidancia is provided by documents published by Federal
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Government agencies. Most important of these'are: Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG 0654/ FEMA-REP-1, Rev.1, November 1980.. Analysis of Techniques for Estimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones, NUREG/CR-1745, November 1980. 1.1 Overview of the Plan Uedate Process The following outline presents a brief description of the work offort in chronological sequence:
- 1. The initial effort consisted of gathering information:
o Review of exi. sting reports describing past evacuation studies. o Conducted several field surveys of the EPZ highway system and of beach-area traffic conditions. 1-1 Rev. O i
o Dsveloped a survey instrumsnt to solicit data describing the travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the Pilgrim EPZ. This survey also obtained data on the public's projected responses _ to an emergency at Pilgrim Station. o Retained a subcontractor to conduct a stratified random-sample telephone survey of the populace within the Pilgrim EPZ. o obtained demographic data from State Planning of fices. o Received, and ' analyzed, aerial photographs 'of the coastal areas _ within the Pilgrim EPZ. These photographs were taken on weekends during the Summer, of 1986. Additional Aerial photography was performed during ideal weather conditions on July 5, 1987.
- 2. After reviewing and analyzing this information, the task of preparing the preliminary input stream for the IDYNEV model was undertaken. Individual activities included:
o Estimating the traffic demand based on the available information derived from census data, frem prior studies, data provided by local and State agencies , and from,the telephone survey. , , o Employing the procedures specified in the 1985 Highway capacity Manual (HCM) and the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacities of all highway segments comprising the evacuation routes. o ' Developing the link-node representation of the ' evacuation network, which is used as the basis for the computer analyses which calculate the Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The IDYNEV System, developed by KLD for FEMA, was used to perform these calculations. i o Preparing the input stream for the IDYNEV System. t 4 o Executing IDYNEV to provide the initial estimates of evaquation routing and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for a single scenario.
- 3. Based primarily on the survey results, the distributions of Trip Generation times were estimated for the various population segments: permanent residents and transients (i.e. tourists and employees).
1-2 Rev. 0
- 4. A total of ton evacuation scenarios ware defined. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, tric generation distribution and in highway capacity',
associated with different seasons, day of week, time of day and weather conditions.
- 5. Updated the demand estimation of employees who work within the EPZ, based on more recent information obtained from State Labor agencies.
- 6. Defined a preliminary set of traffic management tactics to be applied at specified Traffic Control Posts (TCP), !
for subsequent review by local and State police personnel.
- 7. Partitioned the EPZ into Emergency Response Planning Areas (Subareas), then defined a total of 18 " Regions",
where each region consists of a grouping of not necessarily contiguous Subareas. Each region either approximates a circular area or a " keyhole" quadrant within the EPZ, as required by NUREG 0654. l
- 8. Identified Host Communities associated with each community within the EPZ and developed traffic routing patterns for evacuating vehicles.
.9. Conducted a survey of police chiefs within the EPZ to solicit ~ their opinions and recommendations on traffic routing, control and management. The preliminary design (items 6 and 8, above) was used as the basis for !
discussion. All local law enforcement officers l contributed valuable recommendations and all recommendations were integrated into the plan. l
- 10. Using the traffic management policies derived in step 9, a couplete set of ETE was computed. This cet consists of over 180 distinct cases; each case corresponds to the evacuation of a specified recion for a specified evacuation scenario. A total of 18 regions and 10 scenarios (see step 4) were considered.
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- 11. Documented the results of these studies in formats
! responsive to NUREG 0654. l 12. Identified Access Control Posts (ACP) at locations along ) the periphery of the EPZ and developed traffic management control to be applied there. Discussed the need for highway signing at these locations.
- 13. Identified a div'ersion route circumventing the EPZ.
1-3 Rev. 0 4
I 1.2 Description of the Emercency Plannina Zone (EPZ) 9 The Pilgrim Station site is located on the Atlantic coast in the Town of Plymouth, Massachusetts approximately 40 miles south of Boston. The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the plume ) exposure pathway includes all, or part, of 5 communities: Plymouth, j Kingston, Duxbury, Marshfield and Carver. ! Figure 1-1 displays the general site area including the location of Pilgrim Station, the EPZ boundary, all communities within the EPZ, and the major highways in the area. The coastai area extending north from the Plymouth-Bourne Town i Line to Marshfield is a popular summer tourist attraction. In ! addition to the beaches, the town of Plymouth draws significant I numbers of visitors to its many historic sites. There are many I ponds and streams and cranberry bogs in the area west of the I , coast. This area also is home to Myles Standish State Forest, a major recreational facility.
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The highway system is comprised primarily of two-lane two-way rural roads. The major north-south stat.e routes through the EPZ are Route 3A along the coast; Route 3, a four-lane, limited access highway; and Route 58, in Carver. Route 3 serves as onia of the primary access roads to the Cape Cod area from the north; the other major access route to Cape Cod is Interstate 495/ State Route 25 which lies outside.the EPZ. Major east-west routes in the area are
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Route 139 in Marshfield, Route 14 in Duxbury, Routes 106 and 27 in Kingston, US Route 44 in Plymouth, and US Route 6 (Cranberry Highway) which lies south of the EPZ in Bourne. This area enjoys a variable climate.with temperature ranging i from below zero (F) in the winter to as high as 102 degrees (F) in the summer. Average annual rainfall is about 47 inches while snowfall averages about 37 inches. The monthly variations in ! temperature and precipitation in Plymouth, Massachusetts over 3 l decades is given in Table 1-1. 1.3 Preliminary Activities Since this plan constitutes an uedate of prior work, it was necessary to familiarize ourselves with the existing plan. These activities are described below. o l 1-4 Rev. 0
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Table 1-1. Climatic Conditions in Plymouth, MA: 1951-1980 Temperature (deo. F1 - Rainfall (inches)- Snow (inches) Month L.g.y Hich Mean Max. Mean fia x . Jan. -19 63 4.23 10.86 10.7 28.5 Feb.
-15 71 3.90 9.52 11.2 28.9 j March -5 84 4.12 9.66 7.0 21.5 l April . 13 90 4.00 8.47 0.8 6.0 j May 25 95 3.65 9.69 0 0 i June 35 102 2.70 6.14 0 0 j July 42 100 2.97 5.12 0 0 '
Aug. 40 100 4.49 13.66 0 0 Sept. 32 100 4.16 12.29 0 0 Oct. 17 87 4.00 10.13 0.1 1.5 Nov. 11 79 4.74 9.96 0.6 3.0 Dec. -9 66 4.75 10.55 6.4 23.7 i I Source: National Climatic Data Center, North Carolina I I I w 1-6 Rev. 0 l l 4
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- I Literature Review l
. l KLD Associates was provided with copies of documents describing past studies and analyses leading to the development of evacuation plans and of ETE. We also obtained support.ing documents from a variety of sources, which contained information needed to form the data base used for conducting evacuation analyses.
Appendix E is a listing of the major sources of information and includes brief descriptions and summaries of the data contained therein. - Field Surveys KLD professional personnel drove the entire highway system i within the EPZ and for some distance outside. Each driver recorded the characteristics of each section of highway on audio tape. , These characteristics include: i Number of lanes Posted speed Pavement width Actual free speed Shoulder type & width Abutting land use l Intersection configuration Control devices I Lane channelization Interchange geometries I Unusual characteristics: Geometries: curves, grades Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warning signs, inadequate delineations, etc. The audio cassettes were then transcribed; this'information I was referenced while preparing the input stream for the IDYNEV model. Telechone Survey A telephone survey was undertaken in order to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F exhibits l the survey instrument. Appendix G contains tabulations of some of 1 the data compiled from the survey returns. This data was utilized to . develop estimates of vehicle occupancy during an evacuation and to estimate elapsed times between notification of an emergency and the start of evacuation trips. This data base was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-depen (ent residents. On-Site and Telechone Interviews l These interviews consisted primarily of KLD personnel acquiring information which could prove useful for developing an evacuation plan. Participants in these interviews included town police and fire chiefs, school superintendents, harbor masters emergency planners, public work supervisors, town managers, elected 1-7 Rev. 0 l.________.____ _ _ _ _ _ _
officiale, chambar of comm2rca paraonnel, Stato planning and highway personnel, regional planning commission personnel, State parks personnel. Developina the Evacuation Plan fI The overall study procedure to develop Evacuation Time ( Estimates (ETE) is outlined in Appendix D. Particular attention ! was focused on estimating tourist traffic, especially that which j is concentrated in the beach areas. Aerial photographs were obtained which were used to estimate parking capacity at the beach areas and to obtain counts of vehicles parked at the beach areas. Ground-based counts of parking capacity were also collected. Demographic data was obtained from several sources, as detailed later in this report. This data was analyzed and converted into vehicle demand data. Highway capacity was estimated for each highway segment based l on the field surveys and on the principles specified in the 1985 ) Highway capacity Manual (HCM). The link-node representation of the ' physical highway network was developed using large-scale maps and the observations obtained from the field survey. This network is shown in Figure 1-2, with the general directions of evacuating traffic indicated thereon. The.. input stream for the IDYNEV system was then created, checked, and debugged. , Analvtical Tools A variety of analytical tools was employed for this study. The most prominant of these is the IDYNEV (Interactive Dynamic Network Evacuation) computer system which was developed by KLD l
. under contract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) .
IDYNEV consists of three submodels: o An equilibrium traffic assignment model (for details, see Appendix B) o A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see l Appendix C) o An intersection capacity model (for details, stee Highway Research Record No. 772, Transportation Research Board,
.1980, papers by Lieberman and McShane and by Lieberman).
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Tho procsduro 'for applying IDYNEV within the framework of developing an update to the Pilgrim Evacuation Plan is outlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms used in Traffic Engineering. The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to: o Route traffic along paths of travel that will
- expedite their travel from their respective points of 3 origin to points outside the EPZ l
- restrict movement toward Pilgrim Station to the extent ~
practicable ;
- disperse traffic demand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways o satisfy, to the extent possible under emergency conditions, perceived "best" paths out of the EPZ o Move traffic in outbound directions which are generally radial, relative to the location of Pilgrim Station. -
"A Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination demand
_ volumes, was- developed which satisfied the specified linkage between communities within the EPZ and host'comm0nities outside the EPZ, consistent with the need for outbound routing patterns described above. The IDYNEV Traffic Assignment model is executed to produce output which identifies the "best" traffic routing, subject to the design conditions outlined above. In addition to this information, (very] rough estimates of travel time are provided, together with turn-movement data required by the IDYNEV simulation model. The simulation model is then executed to provide a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network. This j description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures which are designed to expedite the movement of vehicles. As outlined in Appendix D, this procedura consists of an iterative designvanalysis-redesign sequence of activities. If properly done, this procedure converges to yield an Evacuation Plan which best services the evacuating public. 1-10 Rev. O END
4 2c DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand constitute a critical element in developing an evacuation plan. This estimate consists of three 1 components:
- 1. An estimate of population, stratified into groups, in communities.within the EPZ.
- 2. An estimate, for each population grouping, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle. This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
- 3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
A variation of this approach was applied in order to estimate tourist and beach area traffic. Thia was necessary since the. majority of this traffic consists of transients, many of whom enter the EPZ from locations outside. As a result, we relied on empirical observation of the number of vehicles which can physically be accommodated within the beach area and discussions with the proprietors of tourist attractions yielded similar information. This is a . valid approach since discussions with public officials confirmed that, with few exceptions, people at. these facilities have access to a vehicle. Thus, the evacuation of people from the beach and tourist areas will be ' primarily- reflected in the nugtbar of
- evacuating private vehicles. .
By accurately estimating the number of vehicles at these areas, we have satisfied the input requirements for an evacuation plan which addresses these areas. Estimates of population in these areas can be based on accurate estimates of per-vehicle person occupancy. Thus, for these arsas, more reliable estimates are forthcoming if we reverse - the sequence of steps 1 and 2, above, by first estimating the number of evacuating vehicles, then using the vehicle-occupancy figure to estimate population. 1 During the summer season, vacationers and tourists enter the I EPZ in large numbers. These non-residents may dwell within the ' EPZ for the entire season, for a short period (e.g. one or two weeks), for a weekend, overnight, or may enter and leave within i one day. Estimptes of the size of these population components must be obtained, so that the associated number of vehicles can be ascertained. The spectre of double-counting of people and vehicles must be addressed: a vehicle and its occupants cannot occupy two i disparate locations at the same time. Consid'or a vacationing family that registers at a motel, travels to the beach in the morning, then does some shopping, away from the beach, in the 2-1 Rev. 0
- - . - - , - ~ - - _ . . - - - - - - - - - - - . - - - - - - - - -
evening before returning to the metal. If we consider a scenario where the accident occurs at about 2:00 pH when the beaches are most crowded, then this family, and its vehicle, would most likely ! be at the beach or some other place away from the motel. If an evening scenario is being studied, than the vehicle would be at a , retail parking lot, or perhaps, back at the motel. l: clearly, since this vehicle cannot be at all 3 locations i simultaneously, its location at the instant a recommendation to evacuate is announced, depends on the scenario being studied. ] It is seen that the number of vehicles at each location depends on time of day. It is clearly wI.9Dg to estimate counts of vehicles by simply adding up the capacities of different types of-parking facilities, without considering the whereabouts of the vehicles. For example, motel parking lots which are full at dawn, may be almost empty at noon. Similarly, beach parking lots which are full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. Another element that must be considered in an evacuation plan is the need to provide for transit-dependent people. These people may be youngsters in school, persons in institutions without access to private vehicles or who cannot provide for themselves, as well ) as residents and tourists who do not have access to a private J vehicle.
.Trin Generatio'n - . ,
Eva.cuation trips *do not "just happen". Thetse ' trips are
" generated" at the time the vehicle leaves its " origin" (i.e. l driveway of a residence, motel lot, public parking lot, etc.) to '
begin the evacuation trip. . Between the time notification of a accident is given by the activation of sirens, to the time that the evacuation trip begins, the evacuees may be performing' a ssquence of preliminary activities, depending on time-of-day and other scenario i considerations: o commuters will prepare to leave work and secure their places of business, if necessary. i o Commuters will travel home from work. o Families will pack clothes and other provisions, and secure I their homes (or farms) . . Another time lag is notification time -- the elapsed time
, between the issuance of the recommendation to evacuate, and the receipt of this notice by members of the public. -
Q 2-2 Rev. 0 l 6 ____.________.-m--- _ _ _ _ _ _ - -
Thoca olepsed tiano will very from ono population group to the next, from one scenario to the next and, of course, from one household to the next. Thus, the trip generation time (i.e. the elapsed time between the notification of the emergency and the beginning of the evacuation trip) will vary from one group of people in a vehicle, to another.
. We can state that the time lag associated with each' preliminary activity can be represented by a statistical distribution which describes the range of elapsed times for the evacuating public. The survey (see Appendix F) obtained information which quantified most of these distributions; Figure 2-1 displays these distributions. .
For each scenario, a series of calculations is 'perfo' emed, using the distributions of Figure 2-1, to obtain the distribution of Trip Generation time. Experience -- and theory -- indicate that ETE is generally insensitive to this distribution of Trip Generation time, whenever the temporal extent of the trip generation process is significantly less than the evacuation time (ETE). This is generally the case when evacuating traffic experiences extensive congestion. On the other hand, when congestion is absent, or limited in r . spatial and/or temporal extent, then. travel time ,can be' small, relative to trip generation time. In these cases, the ETE will directly reflect the trip generation time (i.e. ETE = Trip Generation time + [small] travel time). Section 4 of this report presents a complete discussion of Trip Generation. Analysis of the population characteristics of the Pilgrim Station EPZ indicates the need to identify three distinct groups: o Permanent residents - people who are year round residents of the EP%. 1 o seasonal residents and transients - people who reside in l the EPZ for a portion of the year, generally, the peak l summer season and people who reside outside of the EPZ j who enQr the area for a specific purpose (shopping, ! recreation) and then leave the area. ! o Employees - people who reside outside of the EPZ and ; < commute to business within the EPZ on a daily basis. I 2-3 Rev. 0 l
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e Estimates of tho population and number of vehicles to be expected for each of the population groups will now be presented. Estimates will be presented by town, and by polar coordinate representation (population rose). It is important to note that the population roses displayed herein are for presentation purposes only. The roses are not part of the data base used to estimate evacuation times. Evacuation time estimates are based upon .a considerably more detailed representation of the spatial distribution of population. The more detailed representation is seen in Figure 1-2. Node numbers labelled 2000 through 2999 are centroids which represent areas within the EPZ where population groups originate the evacuation trip. Permanent Residents An accurate estimate of evacuation time must, of necessity, be based upon an estimate of the current population of the EPZ. Base population figures for each town in the EPZ were obtained from 1980 Census Tract data. Estimates of population in 1986 and 1987 were obtained through contacts with Town Clerks (Table 2-1) . Based upon this data, the following procedure was used to estimate the 1988 permanent resident population:
- 1. Estimate the compounded, annualized growth rate for the
. years'1980 to 1987 based upon the 1980 Census and 1987 Town Clerk data.
- 2. Apply the town-specific growth rates computed in step l' .
to the 1987 Town Clerk population estimate. I The second step of the estimation process is the determination of the average number of people who may be expected to occupy evacuating vehicles. Exhibit 2-1 presents the methodology used to determine average vehicle occupancy. l Supporting data, presented in figures 2-2 and 2-3, were obtained ' from the telephone survey (Appendix G). Using an average vehicle occupancy of 2.6, the number of evacuating vehicles servicing the permanent residents may be calculated. Table 2-1 presents these results. It can be argued that accepting this estimate of permanent residents serves to overstate, somewhat, the number of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel elsewhere. A > rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:
- 1. Assume 60 percent of the households vacation over the summer, for a two-week period.
2-5 Rev. O i 6 6
I EXHIBIT 2-1 Estimation of Persons car Vehicle for the Evacuation of Permanent Residents l Case 1: Assume (a) All households with 4 or fewer persons will ride in one car, if a car is available. (b) Households with 5 or more persons will use 2, cars, if 2 ~ cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available. ; Household Number of Number of Number of size Households Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) 111 For Evacuation (2) Private Vehicles (3) 1 66 (0.89) (66) (1) = 59 59 l 2 176 ( 0. 99) (176) (1) = 174 348 3 112 (1. 00) (112) (1) = 112 336 4 123 (1. 00) (12 3) (1) = 123 492 5 81 (0.10) ( 81) (1) + (0. 89) (81) (2 ) =,152 405
, 6+ 41 . (0.07) (41) (1) +
(0. 93) (41) (2) = 79 271 (4) 599 699 1911 Average vehicle occupancy: 1911/699 = 2.73 (1) Ref. telephone Survey (2) To calculate the number of vehicles used for each group of households: a) Multiply the proportion of households (from Figure 2-3) within the group that will use one vehicle, by the number of households in that group. > b) Multiply the proportion of households (from Figure 2-3) within the group that will use two vehicles, by the number of households in that group and by the number of cars used (2). c) Add the values obtained in a) and b). (3) Product of Household Size and Number of Households with one or more vehicles available. (4) Based on average househosi size of 6.6 persons. 2-6 Rev. O
EXHIBIT 2-1 (conc.) Estimation of Persons eer Vehicle for the Evacuation of' Permanent Residents Case 2: Assume . (a) All households with 3 or fewer' people will use 1 car, if available.
. l (b) Half of all households with 4 persons will take 2 cars, if available; the balance will take 1 car.
(c) Households with 5 or more persons will use 2 cars, if 2 cars are available. If not, they will use 1 car, if available. Household Number of Number of Number of size Households Vehicles Used Evacuees using (Persons) M For Evacuation (2) Private Vehicles (3) 1 66 (0. 89) (66) (1) = 59 59 2 176 (0. 99) (176) (1) = 174 348 l 3 112 (1. 00) (112) (1) = 112 336 4 123 . (0.13) (123 ) (1) + (0. 87) (123 ) (0. 5) (1) + ( 0. 87) (12 3 ) (0. 5) (2) = 176 492 5 81 (0.10) ( 81) (1) + (0. 89) (81) (2 ) = 152 405 6+ 41 (0. 07) (41) (1) + (0. 93) (41) (2) = 79 271 599 752 1911 Average vehicle occupancy: 1911/752 = 2.54 - For planning purposes, we will adopt a somewhat conservative estimate.of 2.6 persons / car. This yields an average of (1911/2,.6)/599 = 1.23 evacuating vehicles per household. w l 2-7 Rev. 0 4
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(11) a g (7) o '. W . o , , a, . 1 2 3 4 5 6+ d I Number of Persons per Household 1 Average Household Size: 3.21 s Figure 2-2. Household Size Within Pilgrim j Station.EPZ '
. Source: Telephone Survey -
j l I 2-8. , _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ L
4 Percents in'( ) (76) (57) (35)
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(11) (12) (4) (3) (1 :' (1) 4+ 4~ 0 1 2 3 0 1 2 3 Cars Available Cars Available One-Person Households Two-Person Households (67) (57) - (15) (13) (16) (4,) , (4) 0 1 2 3 4+ - 0 l' 2 -3 4+ Cars Available Cars Available Three-Person Households Four-Person Households (56) (54) (21) (22) g)
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Cars Available Cars Available Five-Person Households Six Plus-Person Households l i l Figure 2-3. Auto Ownership of Households Within Pilgrim i Station EPZ Sourca: Telephone Survey 2-9 Rev. O
Table 2-1. Estimated Permanent Resident Population and Number of Evacuating Vehicles Estimated Estimated Population Growth Projected Number of Town Clerks- Rate Population Vehicles Town 1986 1987 Percent (5) 1988 1988 Plymouth (1) 39,700 40,000 1.6 40,665 15,640 Kingston(2) 7,832 7,491 0.2 7,506 2,887 Carver (3) 5,639 5,782 5.2 6,083 2,340 Duxbury 13,689 13,880 2.3 14,199 5,461 Marshfield(4) 1,822 1,801 1.1 1,821 700' 1 \ l TOTALS 70,274 27,028 Notes: (1) Plymouth - Town Clerk population estimates for 1986 obtained in 1988 are lower than those obtained by KLD in 1987. Consequently., the 1987 population projections used in the ETE' was approximately 720 people more than the current 1987 Town Clerk estimates. The 1988 population - projections are based on the 1987 Town Clerk estimates and' the revised estimated growth rates. (2) Kingston - Town Clerk population estimates for 1987 are lower _ than 1986 population _ estimates. This data is reflected in a lower overall growth rate. (3) Carver - Carver has a total estimated 1986 and 1987 population of 9,723 and 9,969, respectively. It is i estimated that 58 percent of the population of Carvar resides within the EPZ. (4) Marshfield - Town Clark population - estimates for i 1986 and 1987 are 22,780 and .2 2,507, respectively. Itsis estimated that 8 percent of the population of Marshfield resides within the EPZ. (5) Growth rates were' computed on the basis of 1980 Census data and 1987 Town Clerk population n , estimates. Population projections for 1988 are derived by applying the estimated growth rate to , 1987 population estimates. 2-10 Rev. O i
- 2. Assumo theso vacationo, l'n aggregate, are uniformly disperssd over 10 weeks, i.e. 12 percent of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
- 3. Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.
On this basis, the resident population would be reduced by 6 percent in the summer and by a lesser amount in the off-season. The same rationale will lead to the conclusion that the number of employees who work within the EPZ on a full-time (i.e. non-seasonal) basis would also be reduced by that percentage over the summer. This six percent reduction translates into about 1,600 vehicles. On the other hand, it is also likely that there is some influx of vacationers to this area who stay at the homes of friends and relatives. Since we do not have any "hard" data at this time, we have l decided to make no adjustment in our demand estimates for permanent residents for the summer scenarios which are studied. Figures 2-4 and 2-5 present estimates of the permanent resident population and evacuating vehicles in the form of
" roses". The data includes those porti0ns of the EPZ which extend beyond 10 miles.
Seasonal Residents and Transients This population group is comprised of the following components: summer residents, tourists at beaches, parks, historical sites and recreation aream, occupants of hotels and motels, campers, and day-trippers. Each of these sources of population will be discussed here. Detailed supporting information is presented in Appendix E. Summer Residents Table 2-2 presents estimates of the number of summer residents on a town-by-town basis. Where specific estimates of the number of summer homes were not available (Kingston and carver), the ratio of summer homes to permanent residences in Duxbury 'was applied to the number of permanent residences in ; these two towns in crder to develop estimates of the number of summer residences there. Tourists at Beac'has. Pagjts and Historical Sites j Table 2-3 presents a summary of population for beaches and ponds. The source data for developing these estimates are: o Aerial photograp'hs of beach areas during summer, 1986 and l 1987 2-11 Rev. 0
l ., j I: 55; I ;N I -
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#1MG. MIL 55 pg,97, fig, TOTAL WILES
- u0 2 3738 kk$'3Tl5N 02 3718 25 15743 05 1
S 10 422ib _ 19481 IO-EPZ, o .10 61696 ; dsed G-EFZ I 70274 l Figure 2-4. Permanent Residents 2-12 R*V* C
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) (1972 l l r a z a i ; ';'/ ,5 ';r,' ' *'" i us6i VEHICLES TOTALS RING MILES VENIC ES MAL WILES ,'CL E S i 0*2 1431 0*2 1437 2*s 6054 0*S 7491 5 10 16238 0 10 23729
( 10-EPZ 3299 0-rpt 27025 I Figure 2-5. Permanent Resident Vehicles 2-13 Fev. O l
Tabic 2-2. Estimat2d Population - Summ3r R3sidents Estimated Number of Averags Evacu- Vehicle Summer Vehs. Per .(2) ating Occupancy No. of Town Homes (1) Summer Home Vehicles (Per.)(H.H.1 Pecole Plymouth 500 2.7 1350' 2.2 2970 Kingston 67 2.7 182 2.2 400 Carver 92 2.7 248 2.2 546 , Cuxbury 216 2.7 583 2.2 1283 Marshfield 556 2.7 1501 2.2 3302 TOTAL 3864 8501 Notes: (1) Source material was obtained through discussions with local utility offices (Water Authority) or through discussions with local home-delivery newspapers (see Appendix E). (2)' Source: Aerial Photographs i i I N 2-14 Rev. O e 4
Table 2-3. Estimated Population - Baachen and. Ponds Estimated Vehicle No. of Source of Occupancy No. of Beach Vehicles Data (Persons /veh.) Pecole Whitehorse 940 Aerial Photos 2.54 2387 l Beach Morton Park 200 . Non-Resident 3 600 Ticket Sales Plymouth Beach 772 Aerial Photos 2.54 1960
. 1 Saquish Neck 257 Aerial Photos 2.54 654 Priscilla Beach 169 Aerial Photos 2.54 430 Manomet Beach 258 Aerial Photos 2.54 655 Gray's Beach 41 Aerial Photos 2.54 103 Sampson Pond 120 Carver 2.5 300 Recreation.Comm.
John's Pond 120 Carver 2.5 300 Recreation Comm. Duxbury Beach 1804 Aerial Photos 2.54 4583 Green Harbor - 1027 Aerial Photos 2.54 2609 Brant Rock 477 Aerial Photos 2.54 1211 TOTALS 6185 15792 Notes: (1) Aerial Photography was performed on July 5, 1987 l under ideal beach weather conditions. ' (2) Population estimates derived from aerial photographs inc4ude EPZ residents at the beach. 2-15 Rev. 0
o Discussions with town racreation supervisors on the issuance of annual beach non-resident permits. o vehicular occupancy was observed to be on the order of 2.54 persons per vehicle. However, where discussions with local officials yielded other values of vehicle occupancy, these values were used for the specific site. Beach and pond population estimates are based, for the most part, on counts taken from aerial photographs. Consequently, the numbers of people seen include EPZ residents at the beach. Strictly speaking, these persons are already included in the permanent resident population group. It was decided to accept the - double counting of these people in order to properly replicate the traffic conditions on beach access roads. During the July 4, 1988 holiday weekend, a survey was conducted on beaches within the EPZ. The purpose of this effort was to ascertain the point of origin, and transportation modes of j people on the beach. The survey was conducted on the approach.to. I the beach areas; people were questioned as they entered the beach. Results of tlie survey are presented in Exhibit 2-2. Several conclusions may be drawn from this data: - o The majority of people. surveyed are either residents of EPZ communities, or are staying overnight within the local
, a r e a.. The, percentage of day trippers range from about 30% .
of the people surveyed at Duxbury to 8% of the people surveyed at Plymouth Beach. o People who stay overnight in the-local area do so primarily in the same community as is the beach. o The primary mode of transportation to the beach is by car. In general, less than 34.of the people surveyed indicated they were " dropped off" at the beach. Significantly, where the beach areas are close to permanent or summer residences (Green Harbor, Brant Rock, Whitehorse, Prisilla, and Manomat Beaches), a significant fraction of the people surveyed indicates they walked to the beach. o Vehicular occupancy ranged from 2.26 to 3.31 persons per vehicle wd.th an overall average of 3.06. Vehicle occupancy was found to be somewhat higher in 1988 than in 1987 (2.54 persons per vehicle) . Use of the lower value (2.54) in this ETE yields slightly more conservative results since more vehicles are used to transport the population. 2-16 Rev. 0
I;,stest 2-2: Results of teach litill:ction Surver hoch: Green Hortot and Brent Rect 01: In unet toe and state do you live?
.__ 0th e r-------
Rewonses! Plymouth Kingstos Corver Dio:hry Marshfield Within EPZ ness L15 Foreton 'otc1 *o Answer nueser 1 0 0 1 30 32 36 7 1 76 0 percent 1.32 0.02 0.0% 1.3 39.5% 42.1% 47.4% 9.2% 1.3% 3.': 02: Are you staying overnicht locally? (Only responses from non - iPZ residents are inclu6ed) Reponws: , Tes No Total nosht b8 14 44 percent 13.6Z 34 G 224: If so. In m et tom ? Renonses: Plymouth Kingston Corver Duxsury Norshfield WithisFZ Other Total nueser 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 27 percent 0A% 0.E 0.0: 0.b 4 2.41 92.'E 74% 02b: Are you stayinc et a; (Only ressanses free nos - EPZ residents staying overnight within the EPZ are included) Ill) Responses: Suseer Hoes Casesite Notel/ Motel Dther Total nusht 11 0 0 14 25 percent 44.01 0.5 0.01 54.01 03: Mcw did you get here? Drooped GM f(2) Responses: Cat (Persed) (Cat) hercis potetcycle hit fatal nsaber 39 6 0 0 37 76 percent 51.32 0.E 0.01 0.01 48.7% 03e: If you case av car, how eenypeople wre in the car? (Only respondents who pofsed their car at the besca are included)
- --- Total
'esponses: Persons Cars Persons / Cat number 98 39 2.26 3 #ctes: (1) 'Other' accanodettons include overnight visits with friends and telstives
'2) Note that a single respondent can receft soft then one veh1Cle in his/hef 94fty Ihe Survey 00te W45 Nort411 red to Distribute 'No Answer' ogd Linusable Responses 2-17
E21 bit 2-2: Results of leech Utt!!:etion Survey (Contd.) Beech: Duxsury 01: In what town and state do row liw?
- Other - - - - !
Resoonses: Plymouth Kingston Carwr Duxbury Marshfield Within EPZ Mess US Foreign Total % *nswe-numeer 5 0 1 96 3 105 77 17 3 .9 t percent 2.5Z 0.0% 0.5% 47.52 1.:I 52.01 38.1% S.41 1.5% :: 02: Am you staying overnignt locally' (Only responses free non - DZ restdsets em included) l Reseenses; fes its Total l -
)
neeber 38 58 96 l percent 39.61 40.43 024: If so. In uhat tem? Reseanses: Plymouth Kingstne Cervet Dunury norshfield Within&Z Other Total _ naher 3 0 0 21 4 23 9 37 portset 8.12 0.05 0.01 54.82 10.8I 75.7% .24.31 23: Are you steytag et el (Only responses free son - &Z residents staying overnight withis the EP2 are included)
*(l)
Responses: Suanet Home Ceepsite listel/ Metal Other Total number 7 0 1 19 27 percent 25.?! 0.E 3.7% 70.41 l l E3: How did you get hers? Dreeped Off (2) Responses: Car (Parted) (Cet) 31 cycle Retorcycle Welt Total neeber ' 178 5 8 2 9 202 percent 5 .01 2.5 4.0% 1.01 4.51 l 034: If you come by cat, hou eeny eenple mere in the cer? (Only respondents uhe pertedby car et the beech are included)
'Teul Responses: Persons Cats Persees/ Cat nuater ,
544 175 3.17 I htes: (1) 'Other' occomodetions include ontnight visits with friends and relatiws (2) Note that e Staqle respondent can reecrt more than one venicle in his/her party The Servey Date uns Notsalt:ed to Distribute 'No Answer' aap Unuse61e Respontes 2-18
Idlett 2-2: Results of teach Utill etion Survey (Contd. ) leech: Plymenth 01: In unot town and state do you live?
---- - --Othe.
Reseonses: Plymouth Kinoston Cerver Luxbury Marshfield Within DZ Moss US Foreton Total No e sve-0 0 80 15 4 1 100 0 nuater 74 1 3 oenent 76.01 1.01 3.0% 0.01 0 0Z 80.01 15.0% 4.0% 1.0: 3.0: 02: Are you storing overnipt lacellte (Only responses free con - EFZ residents are included) Responses; fes No Total nesher 12 8 20 ponent 60.GI 40. 5 024: If so, la what tous? Responses: Plveosth Kingstos terver Dedrury Reesafield WithinEPZ Other Total nushot 10 0 0 0 0 10 0 10 . peneet 100.01 0.01 0.01 0.0% 0.01 100.01 0.0% . 03: Are you storing at el (Only reseenses fram aan - DZ residents storing overnight withis the 22 are included)
*(1)
Responses: Susser Home Ceapsite Notel/Netel Other Total suaner 2 3 2 3 10 percent 20.01 30.E 20.01 30.01 l Q3: How did you get here? Drepped O M t(2) Ressceses: Car (Parted) (Cat) Mcycle Metanycle Welt Total neater OS 9 2 0 0 90 peneet 97.E 0.5 2.2% 0.01 0 01 Q3e: If you case by cat. bem eeny gesple were in the cer? (Only ressadents uhe perted theit cor et the beect are included) Total Responses: Persons Cats Persons / Car nuaker 271 83 3.00 . I htes: (1) 'Other' occomodations include overnight visits with friends and relettves (2) Note thet e slagle respondent ten roccet more then one vehicle in his/her cetty The Survey Sete was Noreali:ed to Distfibute 'No Answer' and unusable Reseonses 2-19 *
. l l
l l Exniett 2-2: Results of Beech Utrll:ation hrvey (Conc.) Secch; idhitseorse. Priscillo anc Manomet l Gli In what town and state do you live?
._._.0 th e r-----
Responses: Plymouth Kingston Carver Duxbury Marshfield Within EPZ Moss US Foreton Tctc1 No Ans.e. j
.. .. . . ~ . - - I nuacet 9 1 0 0 0 10 59 9 0 73 C percent 11.52 1.31 0.02 0.0% 0.01 12.8% 75.7 11.5% 0.0% 0.0:
02: Are you staying overnight locally? (Only responses free noe - EPZ residents are included) Responses: Tes No Total nuanet 59 9 68 percent 86.81 13. 3 Q2a: If so. In what tome? Responses: Plysouth Kingston Carvet Duxbury Marshfield WithinEPZ Other Total
' l j number 47 9 0 0, , 'O 47 0 47
,p ercent ' 100.02 0.01 0.03 0.01 0.0% 100.02 0.0%
02b! Are you staying at ei (Only ressanses free non - EPZ residents staying overnight within the EPZ are included) l til) j Responses: Suaner Home Casesita lhetal/ Motel Other Total J . number 35 1 5 6 47 l percent 74.53 2.11 10.6% 12.8% G3: How did you get here? Dropped Dff *(2) Responses: Cat (Persed) (Car) licycle Metefcycle hit Total nuebet 49 1 0 1 29 79 sercent 62.01 1.E 0.01 1.3: 35.41 03a: If you come by cat, how esey peuple vote in the car? (Only resendents uhe persed their cet at the beech are includs4)
- - -- Total Responses: Persons Cars Petsons/ Cat - nue6er 162 49 3.31
- Notes: (1) 'Other' accomodettens include overnight visits with friends and relatives (2) Note that e single respondent can retoft more than one vehicle in his/her party The Survey Data was NormaliIed to Distribute 'No Answer' ud unusable Responses 2-20
Table 2-4 presents population estimates for Parks and Historic Sites. Where parking capacity was available, it was used to estimate peak auto occupancy. Where values of average number of annual, or daily, visitors wsre obtained, the number of visitors present at any one time during the peak day was estimated. V'hicular e occupancy of 2.5 persons per vehicle was used at all sites except Myles Standish State Park where a value of 3.5 persons per vehicle was obtained from the Park Manager. Tourists at Hotels and Motels Each of the hotels and motels which could be identified within the EPZ was contacted and the following information elicited: o Number of rooms o Peak period occupancy rate o Proportion of business travelers. For each establishment, the number of occupied rooms was estimated by applying the peak period occupancy to the number of I available rooms. A factor of 0.85 vehicles per occupied room was used to' estimate the' maximum number of vehicles at each location. This. factor is justified by the f.act that major motels in Plymouth rent blocks of rooms to bus tours during the peak season. A single bus tour may reserve from 18 to 20 hotel rooms. The number of people staying at hotels and motels was estimated using a vehicle occupancy factor of 2.4 persons per vehicle. The results of these analyses are presented on a town-by-town basis in Table 2-5. ; Tourists at Camns and Cannsites l In addition to the public and private campsites which exist within the Pilgrim EPZ, the area is home to a number of children's~ summer camps. The following procedure was utilized to determine the children's camp estimates: o Camps idgntified were contacted and the number of campers ascertained o The nunbar . of buses required to transport children was estimaced using an occupancy rate of 45 children per bus o Buses ware. assigned a " passenger car equivalency" factor of 2.0. 2-21 Rev. 0 1
Tablo 2-4. Estimated Pogplation Parks, Historic Sites Estimated Vehicle No. of Source of Occupancy No. of Location Vehicles Data, (Persons /Veh) Peoole Plymouth 300 Parking 2.5 750 Plantation capacity Mayflower II 300 Parking 2.5 750
, capacity Myles Standish 1358 Facility 3.5 4752 State Park Manager Plymouth Rock 600 Avg. daily 2.5 1500 visitors Mayflower 6 Avg. daily 2.5 15 l Society House visitors l Pilgrim Hall 26 Avg. daily 2.5 65 Museum visitors Wm. Harlow 2 Avg. daily 2.5 6 House . visitors l
Sparrow House 6 Avg.' daily 2.5 15 ! visitors Howland House 6 Avg. daily 2.5 15 visitors - l Spooner House 2 Avg. daily 2.5 5 visitors Antiquarian 8 Avg. daily 2.5 20 House visitors Cranberry World 200 Avg. daily 2.5 500 visitors Jenny Grist . 40 Avg. daily 2.5 100 Mill visitors Commonwealth 32 Avg. daily 2.5 80 Winery,. visitors Town Courthouse 10 Avg. daily 2.5 25 visitors 2-22 Rev. 0
Tablo 2-4. Estimated Population Parks, Historic Sites (cone. ) Estimated Vehicle j No. of Source of Occupancy No. of l Location Vehicles Qatn (Persons /Veh) Pecole j Plymouth Colony 6 Avg. daily 2.5 15 Winery visitors - 4 Plymouth Nat'l. 30 HMM est. 2.5 75 Wax Museum j I Mayflower 20 HMM est. 2.5 50 Experience John Bradford 8 HMM est. 2.5 20 House Edaville R.R.* 800 Parking Lot 2.5 2000 Capacity King Richard's 1000 2.5 2500 Faire ** Myles Standish 150 Avg. monthly 2.5 375 ' Mo.nument visitors John Alden .4 Avg. daily 2.5 10 l House visitors -
]
i Duxbury Art 5 Avg. daily 2.5 13 l Complex visitors King Caesar 3 Avg. daily 2.5 8 House visitors 4922 13664 l
*Although the Edaville R.R. is outside of the EPZ, the access road to the facility discharges traffic onto Route 58 in Carver, a major evacuation route. Consequently, it is prudent to include this attraction. . ** King Richard's Faire is open for'about two months on weekends after Labor Day. Although King Richard's Faire is outside of the EPZ, the access road to the facility discharges traffic onto Route 58 in Carver, a major evacuation route.
Consequently, it is prudant to include this attraction. 2-23 Rev. 0 l
Table 2-5. Estimated Population Hotels and Motels Estimated No. of .No. of Town Vehicles (1) People (2) Plymouth 567 1384 Kingston 80 192 , Carver - - Duxbury 28 73 Marshfield - - 4 Totals 675 1649 Notes: (1) To account for bus tours and for passenger vehicle occupants who use more than one unit at hotels, a o factor of 0.85 vehicles per occupied room is used.to estiinate numbers of vehicles.- (2) Person estimates are computed as followsi Persons = (No. of Rooms) x (Peak Occupancy Rate, %) x (0.85 vehicles / room) x (2.4 persons / vehicle) 1 i
\
.a 2-24 Rev. O
Public and privatt campgrounds idsntifisd wara contacted to ascertain the number of available. sites and the peak period occupancy rate. One vehicle was assigned to each occupied site. A value of 2.4 persons _per vehicle was assigned to estimate campsite population. The results of these procedures are shown in Table 2-6.
' Estimation of Dav-Triceers and Elimination of Double-Countinc As stated earlier, summing the number of people at attractions (beaches, tourist attractions) and the number of people at lodgings (. hotels, campsites) is incorrect due to potential double counting. Furthermore, it is recognized that one additional population group exists for which estimates are required, the day-trippers. Day-trippers enter the EPZ for recreational purposes. At the completion of their trip, day-trippers will exit the EPZ.
The procedure developed to estimate day trippers is as follows:
- 1. Identify those groups of transients who are not likely to travel to tourist attractions and beaches on a typical weekend. This group of transients include -
Businessmen - discussions with hotels indicate 29 percent of their peak period guests are businessmen All children at camps All residents at summer homes one-half of all persons at campsites. ,
- 2. Therefore, transients who do travel to attractions are hotel tourists (71 percent of occupied rooms) and 50 percent of all people at occupied campsites.
- 3. Estimate the number of day-trippers: -
Day-trippers = (People at Tourist Sites + Beaches) (Transients (item 2) at Tourist Sites +
, Beaches)
Tables 2-7 present day-tripper computations for each town. The average occupancy of day-tripper vehicles is approximately 2.8 persons per vehicle. Discussions with Town of Kingston officials have indicated the need to assess the potential effects of the construction of the Independence Mall upon the number of day-trippers in' Kingston. However, since construction has not started and a decision on which of several site access plans to be used has not been finalized, it 2-25 Rev. 0 e _-n.-_- - - - - - - - - - - - . -
Table 2.6. Estimated Population Camps and Campsites Cames i No. of No. of No. of Vehicle Town . Children Buses (1) Equivalents (2) Plymouth 3440 81 162 Kingston 210 5 10 Carver 125 4 8 . Duxbury 631 16 32 Marshfield 0 0 0 i
)
Total 4406 106 212 i i 1 Camesites Vehicle
. No. of Occupancy No. of l M Peoele (Persons /Veh) Vehicles , l 4
Plymouth 3658 2.4 - 1525- 1 Kingston 0 - 0 . I Carver
- 1000 2.4 416 Duxbury O -
0 Marshfield 0 - 0
~
Total 4658 1941 l Notes: (1) Bus occupancy of 45 children per bus is assumed. ! (2) One bus is equivalent to 2 passenger cars. s l 3 2-26 Rev. 0
Tablo 2-7A. Estimation of Day-Trippara and Total Number of Transients in Plymouth
- 1. People within the EPZ who do H21 travel to attractions Source Busine'ssmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 401 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 3440 Table 2-6 Summer Homes 2970 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 1829 Table 2-6 Total 8640 l
- 2. People within the EPZ who do travel to attractions overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 983 Table 2-5 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 1829 Table 2-6 Tot &l 2812
- 3. People at attractions Parks, beaches, recreation and historic
~ '
. 8738 Table 2-4 attractions ,
1672* Table 2-3 i Total 10410
- 4. Day-trippers [(3) - (2)]; 10410 - 28,12 = 7598
- 5. Total number of non-boating transients
[(1) + .(2) + (4)]; 8640 + 2812 + 7598 = 19050 i
*There are 6686 people on Plymouth beaches of which only 25% are '
non-residents. l
's 2-27 Rev. O
Table 2-78. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total . Number of Transients in Kingston {
- 1. People within the EPZ who do ngt travel to attractions Sg_qrce Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 56 Table 2-5 '
children's Camps 210 Table 2-6 Summer Homes 400 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 666
- 2. People within the EPZ who do travel to attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 136 Table 2-5 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 136
- 3. People at attractions Parks, beaches, recreationandhistorib 20 Table 2-4 attractions ,
103 Table 2-3 Total 123 l 4. Day-trippers ((3) - (2)]; 150*
- 5. Total number of non-boating transients
((1) + (2) + (4)]; 666 + 136 + 150 = 952
*A nominal day-tripper estimate of 150 people is used because the estimated number of people drawn to attractions in Kingston is I satisfied by the transients already in Kingston. l 9 .
l l e 2-28 Rev. O
Table 2-7C. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Carver .
- 1. People within the EPZ who do Dg1 travel to attractions Source Busf.nessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 125 Table 2 -6 Summer Homes 546 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 500 Table 2-6 Total 1171
- 2. People within the EPZ who do travel to attractions overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 500 '
Table 2-6 I Total 500 l , l
- 3. People at attractions !
Parks, beaches, recreation and historic 4500 Table 2-4 attractions 600 Table'2-3 j Total 5100
- 4. Day-trippers ((3) - (2)]; 5100 - 500 = 4600
- 5. Total number of non-boating transients
((l) + (2) + (4)]; 1171 + 500 + 4600 = 6271 l s 2-29 Rev. 0 l
Table 2-7D. Estimation of Day-Trippara and Total Number of Transients in Duxbury l
- 1. People within the EPZ who do n21 travel to attractions Source Businessmen-(29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 21 Table 2-5 Children's Camps 631 Table 2-6
?
Summer Homes 1283 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 -
~
Total 1935 l
- 2. People within the EPZ who do travel to attractions Overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 52 Table 2-5 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total Si
- 3. People at attractions Parks' beaches, recreation and historic
, 406 Table.2-4 attractions ,
4583 ' Table 2-3 Total 4989 l
- 4. Day-trippers ((3) - (2)]; 4989 - 52 = 4937
- 5. Total number of non-boating transients
((l) + (2) + (4)]; 1935 + 52 + 4937 = 6924 s l l a 2-30 Rev. 0
1 Table 2-7E. Estimation of Day-Trippers and Total Number of Transients in Marshfield
- 1. People within the EPZ who do ng_t travel to attractions Source Businessmen (29% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 l Children's camps 0 Table 2-6 Summer Homes , 3302 Table 2-2 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 3302
- 2. People within the EPZ who do travel to attractions overnight tourists (71% of hotel, motel occupancy) 0 Table 2-5 Campsites (50% of occupied campsites) 0 Table 2-6 Total 0
- 3. People at attractions
. Parks, beaches, recreation and historic ,. 'O Tabl'e 2-4 attractions .
. 3820 Table 2-3 Total 3820 ,
- 4. Day-trippers [(3) - (2)]; 3820 - 0 = 3820
- 5. Total number of non-boating transier.ts
[(1) + (2) + (4)]; 3302 + 3820 = 7122 t t 2-31 Rev. 0 4
j io prematuro to includo this facility in tho currGnt ETE. It is understood that, once the mall has been completed, it should be included in any ETE update performed at that time. Boaters The EFZ for Pilgrim Station encompasses an area which is popular with recreational and commercial boaters. The Towns of Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury and Marshfield have many facilities to service the boating public. These facilities include marinas, yacht. clubs, town wharfs and public access ramps. Since it may be expecto that, for summer scenarios, people will be boating within the off-thore region of the EPZ, it is prudent to estimate this population. Contacts were established with town harbor masters, marina operatora, and yacht club stewards to estimate the number of boats which may be expected. !n addition, aerial photographs of the , coastal region were used to count the number of boat trailers at some public Launch ramps. Specifics of this data collection process are presented in Appendix E. It is likely that many of the boats in use belong to people who have been counted as part of the permanent population and summer home residents. It will be assumed that 75 percent of boats in use belong to these population segments. Further, it is assumed that each boat in use implitt a : single. vehicle on shore. The
. average occupancy of these vehitlas is assumed to be 2.5 persons.
Table 2-8 summarizes the boating estimates. A town-by-town summary of the transient population is presented in Table 2-9. Estimates of tr.ansient population _and of evacuating vehicles are presented in the format of " roses" in Figures 2-6 and 2-7. Tayloyees The procedure utilized to estimate the number of employees who enter the EP% each day involves a number of steps:
. 1. Estimate current total employment for each town
- 2. Estimate the number of employees who live within the EP2 and commute to work in the EPZ
- 3. Estimate the number of people in each community who walk to work, or work at 1.ome
- 4. Determine the number of employees who arrive in each town who live beyond the EPZ boundary.
Each of these steps will be discussed. 2-32 Rev. O i
a fable 2-8. Estimated Boating Population Total No. of Transient No. of 7 No. of Town Boats in Use Boats in Use Vehs. People (1) (2) (3) Plymouth 463 , 116 116 290 Kingston 200 50 50 125 Duxbury 825 206 206 515 Marshfield 270 68 68 170 TOTALS 1758 440 440 1100 Notes: (1) Assumed 25 percent of boats in use by non-EPZ residents and previously iden,tified transients. (2) 1 vehicle on-shore per boat. (3) Vehicular occupancy is 2.5 persons per vehicle, s 1 2-33 Rev. 0
Table 2-9. Summary of Transient Population 1 1 Plymouth Kinaston Carver Duxbury Marshfielc. I Summer Homes 2970 400 546 1283 3302
. . Hotel, Motel 1384 192 0 73 0 l Campers 3440 210 125 631 0 Campsites 3658 0 1000 0 0 Day-trippers 7598 150 4600 4937 3820 Boaters 290 125 0 515 170
~
Total 19340 1077 6271 7439 7292 k i 4 Note: Th's peak transient population within the Pilgrim EPZ occurs l during the summer tourist season.. It should be noted that peak attendance at King Richard's Faire and at' the Edaville , I Railroad occurs after Labor Day. This fact is reflected in the transient population roses on a scenario by scenario basis. l i w 2-34 Rev. O
I __l i.iiiij s N I - I NHW NNE
, c 1 .i ',,' 0 y' '
0 ! I g.g NE
.i 10 uus WNW o 0
g ~.y 1251 ENE 5 9 1 33 o 0 0 l 1 755 780 0 0 0 0 o 0 " N A 1200 4264 0 0 l e2ui 0 0 [ O 3 t a! o 000 0 ; 0 325 0 71o o 0 WSW t 3251 0 n94 . ESE
. 0 -
c1 t . 2675 0 SW I u221 SE a50 300 I 1444 I SSW 202 o 0 SSE 1 8501 0 g 11494l l 2 e 6e 9 Io,or e. s ,.n; nous iiea l202oI _ POPULATION TOTALS NIMO. MILES 1 41 PC*ub ION 734 TWAL WILES 02 kQ(([M 2s 734 8299 os 9033 { S .10 25661 0.to lO-EPZ 34694 49/5 V-EFZ i 38669
)
9 Figure 2-6. Transient Population j Scenarios 1, 2 i 2-35 Rev. 0 l
I o1 N l3354J n I ol NNW 0 NNE
)
0 0 l 4949 [ n3J 0 0 t ') I
, NW HE
,a* 10 uitas
-~
39: 0 WNW 60s 0 0 ENE 1 I d4JI 334 0 0 N 5 g i :iI g 3 309 000 2 0 327 0 0 0 / W 203 1710- 1 0 1 0 0 [ l 22aol - 0 - I 0- 00 0 139 0 322 0 0 UN - 403 ESi 0 0 I 1391 L_ c I 1036 0 SW SE l2724l 40 125 1 612l 205 SSW o SSE o I 401 0 1 52a l 1 13 804 1 *',*,'s... i a , ;. i v."** 7
, l 20s i VEHICLES TOTALS RING MILES ' I Tc ALWILES C AT E VEMIC KS (
's 02 290 02 290 25 1 3349 o5 3639 5 10 8776 3 10 12415 10-EPZ 1J69 O 797 lJ6U4 l
*The vehicle count includes the use of buses to transport children's camp occupants.
Figure 2-7. Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 1,2 2-36 Rev. 0
1 i
- 1. Estimate current total employment.
Based upon 1980 Census data, employment in each of the towns is: 1980 Town Employment l Plymouth 11,700 l Kingston 2,119 l Carver 675 l Duxbury 1,904 Marshfield 3,140 - I Growth in employment between 1986 and 1988 was estimated by computing an annual rate of growth based upon Massachusetts Department of Labor statistics. Table 2-10 presents the 1988 estimated employment for each town. i
- 2. Estimate the number of employees who live within the EPZ and commute to work in the EPZ.
Table 2-11 presents estimates of the number of workers ) who live in each town. The growth rates applied were. - I computed for the growth of permanent population. The telephone survey may be used'as a check on the number of workers in each town. .As can be seen, in Table 2-12, the results obtained through the telephone survey are in close agreement with the results based upon the Census analysis. . l The balance of this discussion will focus on Plymouth, , Kingston, Carver and Duxbury (with a total 1988 estimated i number of workers of 27,955; see Table 2-11) . At the conclusion of the analysis, results will be applied to Marshfield. The reason for this approach is the need to use the telephone survey results. Survey results were not available for Marshfield. Table 2-13 presents an origin-destination matrix for home to work trips within the Pilgrim EPZ. Table 2-13 is based upon the telephone survey. Data from this table is used to develop the number of jobs in the EPZ filled by EPZ residents: , Plymouth (215/754) x (27,955) = 7,971 Kingston (41/754) x (27,955) = 1,520 - l Carver (7/754) x (27,955) = 260 ; Duxbury (48/754) x (27,955) = 1,780 l 2-37 Rev. O
. 1 Tablo 2-10. 1988 Ectimated Employment within tho Pilgrim EPZ 1980 Mass. Dept. of Labor Annual 1988 i Base 1980 1985 Growth Est. l Employ- , Employ- Employ- Rate (2) Employ-Town ment (1) ment ment 111 ment (3)
Plymouth 11,700 10,458 13,939 5.9 '18,522 Kingston 2,119 1,770 2,507 7.2 3,698 Carver (4) - 675 370 744 15.0 2,065 i (1,198) ! l Duxbury 1,904 1,453 2,026 6.9 3,240 ) Marshfield(5) 3,140 2,937 3,889 5.8 4,922 (394) ] l Notes: (1) Source: 1980 Census. The data obtained from the l State of Massachusetts shows lower employment than I the census data because State date does not include some categories of employment e.g. workers with no state disability insurance or workmans compensation., (2) Compound annual growth rate based upon Mass. Dept. of j Labor data.- i ('3) The 1988 estimate is based upon the'1980 Census data
~
to which the annual growth rate is applied for 8 years. (4) 58 percent of Carver lies within the EPZ. 1988 EPZ j employment estimate is shown in parentheses. - (5) 8 percent of Marshfield lies within the EPZ. 1988 EPZ employment estimate is shown in parentheses. 1 i l l l 2-38 Rev. O
Tablo 2-11. 1988 Estimated Numbar of Workers within the Pilgrim EPZ Annual 1980 Growth Rate (2) 1988 Town Estimate (1) Lu Estimate (3) Plymouth 14,472 ,1. 6 16,432 Kingston 3,213 0.2 3,265 Carver (4) 1,508 5.2 2,262 Duxbury 4,999 2.3 5,'996 Marshfield (5) 763 1.1 833 Notes: (1) Source: 1980 Census, number of persons, 16 years and older who work. (2) Compound annual general population growth rate (see Table 2-1). . (3) The 1988 estimate is based upon the 1980 data and the '~ annual growth rate applied for 8 years. , (4) 58 percent of Carver lies within the EPZ. -The . figures shown include this factor. (5) 8 percent of Marshfid1d lies within the EPZ. The figures shown include this factor. s 2-39 Rev. 0
Tablo 2-12. Comparison of 1988 Workbr Estimatsa Bnecd upon Census Data and Telephone Survey O Survey 1988 Survey ? Survey 1988 1988 Sample Est. Scale No. of Survey' Census Town q . P_os Egs. Factor Workers Eat. M. Plymouth 1,163 40,640 34.94 453 15,828 16,432 Kingston' 244 .7,506 30.76 107 3,291 3,265 Carver 121 6,083 50.27 52 2,614 2,262 buxbury 396 14,199 35.86 142 5,092 5,996
)
l s l 1 l . l 2-40 Rev. 0
Table 2-13. Employee Origin-Destination Trip Table Total I Trip Total Trip Destinations Total Non-Oricins Tries Plymouth Kinoston Carver Duxbury EPZ EPZ Plymouth 453 172 15 . 3 7 197 256 i Kingston 107 19 15 1 7 42 65 Carver 52 8 4 3 3 18 34 Duxbury 142 16 7 0 31 54 88 Total 754 215 41 7 48 311 443 i Source: Telephone Survey 1 l
\
1 l 2-41 Rev. 0
-_.-------______________-___-_-_____.__w
- 3. Estimate the number of people who walk to work, or work at home.
The 1980 Census data yields information on the number of non-commuters in each town. This figure can be updated to provide a 1988 estimate by applying annual employee growth estimates (see Table 2-10). Consequently, No. of Jobs Filled Town by Non-Commuters Plymouth 1,257 Kingston 255 - Carver 179 Duxbury 451
- 4. Determine the number of employees who arrive in each town who live beyond the EPZ boundary. l Table 2-14 presents the development of these figures for the four towns addressed in the telephone survey. The ,
ratio: i l Jobs held by non-EPZ commuters: No. of jobs within EPZ is used to estimate the figure for Marshfield: No. of jobs in Marshfield 394 (Table 2-10) Ratio 12985/26658 = 0.487 (Table 2-14) ' of jobs held by non-EPZ residents
- No. of Marshfield jobs held by non-EPZ residents (.487 x 394) .192 Employee vehicle occupancy 1.18 (1980 Census)
No. of Marshfield vehicles 163 Table 2-15 presents a summary of the numbers of employees who encer the EPZ daily. Figures 2-8 and 2-9 present the data of employee population from outside the EPZ and their estimates of evacuating vehicles in the format of
" roses".
Other Vehicles There will be vehicles traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of the accident. It is reasonable to expect that, at the time evacuation gets under way, these through travelers will also be evacuating since they are already in_their cars. Many vehicles traveling through the EPZ do so on Route 3. Table 2-16 presents estimates of peak hour volumes I on Route 3 based upon MDPW traffic, counts. These volumes are applied until access control becomes effective in diverting traffic 2-42 Rev. O j l l . i l
q Table 2-14. Estimatsd NumbGr Employees Who Enter the EPZ to' Work and the l Associated Number of Vehicles ] l No. Jobs i of Jobs Jobs " Held Employees I Jobs Held Held by per - l' within by EPZ by Non- Non-EPZ Vehicle Employee Town E21 Res, Commuters Eggt 111 Vehicles Plymouth 18,522 7,971 1,257 9,294 1.17 7,944 Kingston 3,698 1,520 255 1,923 1.16~ 1,658 Carver 1,198 260 179 759 1.17 649 l Duxbury 3,240 1,780 451 1,009 1.15 877 l
\
l Total 26,658 11,531 2,142 12,985 Note: (1) Source: U.S..' Census w ' 2-43 Rev. 0
1 1 3l ' In Im Table 2-15. Estimated Number Employees Who Enter the EPZ and the Number of Their Vehicles That Will Evacuate No. of No. of DED Emoloyees Vehicles Plymouth 9,294 7,944 Kingston 1,923 1,658 Carver 759 649 Duxbury 1,oog 877 Marshfield 192 163 Totals 13,177 11,291 s
)
2-44 Rey, o
Table 2-15. Estimated Number Employees Who Enter the EPZ and the Number of Their Vehicles That Will Evacuate No. of No. of q T_owa Employees Vehicles Plymouth 9,294 7,944 Kingston 1,923 1,658 Carver 759 649 Duxbury 1,009 877 Marshfield 192 163 1
. Totals 13,177 11,291 s
b 2-44 Rev. 0
Table 2-16. Route 3 Traffic Estimates I Average Directional Daily Traffic Peak Hour Peak Hour Volume Season (ADT) (1) Factor (vehicles / hour) Peak . 40,461 0.10 2,023 off-Peak 23,768 0.15 l'783 (Midweek) Notes: 1. Source: MDPW, 1986 Counts. Peak season uses the highest monthly ADT, July. Off-peak ADT utilizes the average ADT for the p,eriods 1/1/86 - 5/15/86 and 9/15/86 - 12/31/86. 1 N I 2-45 pey, o l l
1 0I . [ 192] o N [ Ol l HNW NNE O [ 1009 l 326 192 0 0 [ 0l NW - NE 10 w Las sa3 U 131 0 WNW [3411 1 0 0 ENE 5 2316 . 0 0 0 t a1 1 964 0 0o l 0 0 254 0 W 688 1951 ~ 0 J 0 0 0 1 [28931 0 E 0 1 01 246 0 0 0 382 0 353 1014 o l WSW 0 218 887 I
,116421 -
0 .ESE
*[ o l 442 O O O SW I 442l 447 SE 0 L 383 l 620 SSW o O SSE I 6651 0 [887l s
5. l 1317 7 l aT*' un masesse"
, ic l 11531 POPULAil0M TOTALS '
RIMO.hMLES pod $figg TOTAL WILES CyjjyjQ r oa 1063 02 1063 2s 4619 _ os 5682 S .10 6402 0 10 12084 lO-EPZ' 1093 6-EFZ 13177 4 Figure 2-8. Employees within the EPZ who live outside the EPZ 2-46 Rev. O
-i I ~ oI N
l 163 1 OI NNW i. 0 0 I
)
/ q~ \ 0 HNE
[ 877 l 281 0 NW HE 10 MiLas 596 0 113 0 i WNW ENE [ 2930l 1993 0 0 0 - 824 g 0 g2 0 216 0 W 586 1670 l 0 0 E I24721 0 ~ I I 5 209 0 0 327 868 0 30 0 WSW ' 186 758 ESE [ 1404l O oj
- [
0 0 0 l 1 SW SE I l 378 l 382 - 0 l 755 l I 530 l SSW 0 0 SSE I 568,l 0 g [ 758l
' 3*
l _ ll291l [*'g'e' to 'M$1 e I 986 l VEHICLES TOTALS 8N C AT E RING MILES y,"g;C ES TCTAL MILES ( 02 909 l o2 909 s 2s 3949 os 4858 S to 5496 o to 10354 10-EPZ 9J/ O e?7 11291 i Figure 2-9. Employee vehicles which join in the evacuation 2-47 Rev. 0
i from Routo 3 at tha EPZ boundariGo. It is estimated that'the total number of through vehicles within the EPZ at the time evacuation is recommended is between 2500 and 3000 vehicles. I t 9 e 9 9 5 9 3 2-48 Rev. O END - - ~ _ _ ___
- 3. ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITY The ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is I a major factor in determining how rapidly an evacuation can be completed. It is, therefore, necessary to know the capacities of the available roadways. .
i In general, the capacity of a facility is defined as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a lane of roadway during a 'given time period under. prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions. (From the 1985 Highway capacity Manual.)
- In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to )
generally reflect varying traffic operational characteristics. l These designations have been termed " Levels of Service" (LOS). ] For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating I conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition. LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity. Because of the effect of weather on the capacity of a roadway, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent estimated road conditions during inclement weather. Based ~on limited empirical data, weather conditions such .as heavy rain reduce the. values. of capacity for highways by approximate 1y 20 - percent. For snowy weather conditions during thei winter months, we have estimated capacity. reductions of a' approximately 25 percent relative to normal weather conditions. 'We also reduce free flow speeds for inclement weather conditions: 20 percent for rain, 25 percent for snow. In the congested traffic environment which is often characteristic of an evacuation scenario, travel time on a roadway section is, to a large extent, determined by the capacity l of that section. For that reason, estimates of roadway capacity must be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the major factors which influence capacity, is presented in this section. The major factors which control capacity include: o on the gproach to intersections Saturation queue discharge headways Turning movements Competing traffic streams Control policy, if any Traffic composition Approach geometrics and channelization 3-1 Rev. 0
o Along sections of roadway Roadway geometrics Traffic composition 1 o General considerations Weather conditions Pavement conditions
, Lighting Cacacity Estimations on Aceroaches to Intersections ,
i' At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under heavy traffic volume conditions. This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, however, control at critical intersections, will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that purpose, whose directions may supercede traffic control devices. The per-lane capacity of an approach to an intersection can be expressed in the following form: 3600 (G-L) 3600
' Q' cap,m " h C hm Pm (1) m - -m.
where Qcap,m = capacity of traffic on an approach, which execute movement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph) hm = Mean qusue discharge headway of vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m; I seconds per vehicle
, Gm = The mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles on an approach, which are executing movement, m, for each control cycle; seconds L =
77te mean " lost time" for each control cycle; seconds C = The mean duration of each control cycle; seconds Pm = The proportion of time allocated for vehicles executing movement, m, from an approach. This value is specified as part of the control treatment. 3-2 Rev. 0 e
m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the intersection: through, left-turn, right-turn, diagonal. The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway h mi
. depends in a complex way upon many factors: roadway geometrics, turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic str'eams, the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of
" saturation queue discharge headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles which are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams. This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior, but is relatively straightforward to -
determine empirically in the field. Formally, we can write, j hm"fm (hsat, F,1 Fr 2 -) where hsat = Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; ; seconds per vehicle 1 F,1 F2= The various known factors influencing hm fm (*) = Complex function relating h a to the known (or. estimated) values of heat,.F 1, F2 , The estimation of ha for specif'ied values of'hsat, F,1 F2i
... is undertaken by a mathematical model* which- has been ,
programmed into the Traffic Assignment and Traffic Simulation ! software of the IDYNEV System. The resulting values for h a always satisfy the condition: hm ?_ hsat That is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always more than, or equal to, the saturation discharge headway. for through vehicles. It is seen that, given the ability to determine h m from hsat, the determination of capacity of the approaches to intersections depends upon obtaining estimates of hsat, such estimates were obtained empirically at representative intersections tVoughout the EPZ. In all cases, the values of
*Lieberman, E., " Determining Lateral Deployment.of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,
" Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980.
3-3 Rev. 0
hsat used in developing the cvecuation plan represent conservative estimates ** based on this empirical data. Specifically, observed values for hsat ranged from 2.1 to 2.4 sec/veh; higher (more conservative) figures were adopted based on , l capacities which were estimated using the procedures of the 1985 j Highway capacity Manual. These estimates are described later. i i To summarize the foregoing discussion: l
- i o The saturation queue discharge headways, hsat, for l through vehicles can be quantified by empirical observation
^
o The turn-movement-specific headways, h, are then l m calculated, taking into account the effects of turn I movement percentages, link geometry and other factors I l o With the control treatment prescribed as part of the evacuation plan, the value of Pm may be defined . o The per-lane capacity for each turn movement is then formed from equation (1) . Cacacity Estimation Alone Sections of Michway The capacity of highway sections -- as distinct from approaches to intersections -. is a- . function of roadway l- geometrics,,' traffic composition ,(e.g. percent heavy trucks and , I buses in the traffic stream) and, of course, motorist behavior. There is a fundamental relationship which relates service volume ] (i.e. the number of vehicles which can pass a point in a given time period) to traffic density. F,1gure 3-1 describes this relationship. 1 As indicated there, the service volume increases as density ) increases, until the service volume attains its maximum value, j Vg, which is the capacity of the highway section. Note that as density increases beyond this " critical" value, the rate at which traffic capacity. can be serviced (i.e. the service volume) declines below i Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic l performance during congested conditions (i.e. when density l l l
\
l
- Interestingly,' studies have shown that hsat decreases (i.e. l capacity increases) during periods of congestion, relative to r that during off-peak traffic conditions. This behavior reflect.s ;
the fact that motorists are more attentive and are highly l motivated to reduce their travel time, during congested j conditions. Our estimates do not include this beneficial l effect. l l i 3-4 Rev. 0 1 - _ -------- - - - - - - - - A
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et sf n s c u a a e e . er cl F r e ub c. r nett d a . I i r s t 1 g 3 n s e o e l m t a r gt ni n y u t g il o i w i i o s t s c F l cce a f i al p
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_ c e r i n iu v u e rl h e o/ sVh e v oe? O ( Yun - Ii1j!I(ll! i 1lj l
cxcesds the " critical" valus) , it is nscessary to estimate the service volume, Vy, under congested conditions. This.value, V7, which is less than capacity, V, E should be used for estimating evacuation times, and whenever congested conditions prevail. The value of Vy can be expressed as: I Vy = R
- VE where R = Reduction factor which is less than unity.
Based on empirical data collected on freeways, we have employed a value of R = 0.85. It is important to mention that some investigators, on analyzing data collected on freeways, conclude that little or no reduction in capacity occurs even at Level of Service, F. While there is conflicting evidence on this subject, we will again adopt the conservative approach and use a lower value of capacity, Vy, during LOS F conditions. The estimated value of capacity, VE , is based primarily upon the type of facility (e.g. controlled access highway such as State Route 3, uncontrolled access highway such as Route 3A) and on roadway geometrics. Clearly, a winding narrow road has significantly lower service volume than does Route 3. Sections of roadway with poor geometrics are characterized by: o Lower, free-flow speeds than on highways with good geometrics. , o Longer headways separating moving vehicles. The first factor increases travel time when conditions are undersaturated. The latter factor produces lower service volumes, thereby reducing capacity. The procedure used here was to estimate "section" capacity, V, E based on our observations travelling over each section of the I evacuation network and by reference to the Highway capacity Manual. We then determined for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its capacity would be limited by the "section-specific a service volume, VE or by the intersection-specific capacity. For each link, we selected the lower value of capacity. Note that the reduction of capacity, from VE to Vy, is automatically implemented by the IDYNEV simulation model. General Considerations Inclement Neather conditions (rain, fog, snow) and poor or wat pavement conditions reduce capacity by virtue of: o Lower free-flow speeds reflecting greater caution on the part of motorists. 1 3-6 Rev. 0
o Longer vehicle headways reflecting lower traction and/or more cautious driver behavior. The decrease in service volume due to these factors can be estimated based on either direct observation or by referencing other studies in the literature. Aeolication to Pilcrim EPZ As part of the development of the Pilgrim EPZ traffic network, an estimate of roadway capacity is required. The source material for the capacity estimates presented herein is contained in: 1985 Highway capacity Manual (HCM), Special Report 209 j Transportation Research Board National Research Council Washington, D.C. 1985 I The highway system in the Pilgrim EPZ consists primarily of j three categories of roads: j o Two-lane roads: local, State o Multiplane Expressways ,
)
o Freeway ramps , Each of these classifications will be discussed.
- Two-Lane Roads .
Ref: HCM Chapter 8 As a further aid to the estimate of roadway capacity, we ) have adopted tha following three general types of rural roads:
- 1. " Low" design roads - 10 ft. lanes, 1 ft. shoulders (e.g.
Rocky Hill Road)
- 2. " Medium" design roads - 11 ft. lanes, 2 ft. shoulders (e.g. Route 139) 3.""High" (esign roads -
12 ft. lanes, 4 ft. shoulders (e.g. Route 58) The relationship describing traffic operations on general terrain segments is as follows: SFi = 2,800 x (v/c)i,x fdX fw X fMV 3-7 Rev. 0
whara:
=
SFi total service flow rate in both directions for prevailing roadway and traffic conditions, for level of service i, in vph (v/c)1 = ratio of flow rate to ideal capacity for level of service i, obtained from HCM Table 8-1 fd = adjustment factor for directional distribution of traffic, obtained from HCM Table 8-4 fy = adjustment factor for narrow lanes and restricted - shoulder width, obtained from HCM Table 8-5 fMV = adjustment factor for the presence of heavy vehicles in the traffic stream, which can be computed as outlined in the HCM We have applied these procedures of the 1985 HCM to obtain estimates of the "section" capacities of two-lane roads within the EPZ. An outline of these procedures is presented below. Note that capacity is defined as the service flow at the upper bound of Level of Service, LOS E. Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations
. associated with avacuation scenarios:
- o The two-lane .r'o ads within the 2PZ are classified as l " rolling terrain".
l L o Percent no passing zones is approximately.60. l l o Directionality of traffic moving over two-lane roads l l during evacuation will approximate a " split" of 90 : percent moving outbound; 10 percent moving inbound, averaged over the duration of the evacuation. (For a mid-day mid-week scenario, this split way increase to 80/20 reflecting commuter traffic returning home. Highway capacity for outbound traffic, for this split, is essentially the same as for the postulated 90/10 directional split). o Traffic s mix is: 14 trucks, 1% buses, 4% recreational vehicles during the summer. l On this basis, the value of v/c of LOS E is 0.91 taken from l Table 8-1 of the HCM. The directional split factor, fd is 0.75 2 from Table 8-4 of the HCM. These factors apply to all threo, rural road types. 1 3-8 Rev. 0
. i I
i 1 The road width factors, fw, are obtained from Table 8-5 of
- the HCM: ;
o " Low" design roads - 0.78 (by interpolation)' o " Medium" design roads - 0.88-o' "High" design roads - 0.97 The vehicle mix factor is based both on the percentages of heavy vehicles and on the Passenger Car Equivalent (PCE) value of each vehicle type. Since PCE is related to vehicle performance, . the PCE is lower on higher speed roads. For example, due to sluggish acceleration, a truck moving in local street ' traf fic exhibits a higher PCE than the same truck does when it is on a freeway.- on this basis, the following values were obtained: fMV = 0.87 for roads of high, medium and low designs; The following table represents the two-way and one-way (directional) capacity estimates for the three road types identified: ,
, ,2-way 1-way , Equivalent , ~ V V Headway Road. Type (V/C) fd fw * ,fMV (vp ) (vp ) (sec)
Low design 0.91 0.75 0.78 0.87 , 1297 1167 3.1 Medium design 0.91 0.75 0.88 0.87 1463 1317 2.7 High design 0.91 0.75 0.97 0.87 1613 1452 2.5 Notes: 1. The one-way capacities of roads for evacuating vehicles are calculated by multiplying the two-way values obtained from the HCM procedures, by the directional I split, 0.9. l
- 2. These directional (i.e. one-way) estimates will be '
multiplied by the factor, R = 0.85, when the traffic is q moving under congested conditions. i Freeway Canacity
\
There is one freeway in the Pilgrim EPZ; State Route 3. A general relationship is used to compute the one-way freeway service flow at different Levels of Service: SFi = cj x (v/c)4 x N x fw xfMV X f p 3-9 Rev. 0
Where: SFi = service flow rate for -LOS i under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions for N lanes in one direction, in vph , (v/c)1 = maximum volume-to-capacity ratio for Los i c3
= capacity under ideal conditions for freeway element of design speed j; 2,000 pcphpl for 60 mph
. and 70 mph freeway elements, 1,900 pcphpl for 50-mph- freeway elements; the value of c3 is synonymous with the maximum service flow rate for -
LOS E N = number of lanes in one direction of the freeway fy = factor to adjust for the effects of restricted lane widths and/or lateral clearances
= factor to adjust for the effect of heavy vehicles fMV (trucks, buses and recreational vehicles) in the traffic stream fp = factor to adjust for the effect of driNr population Based on the. field survey, Route 3 exhibits: i o Essentially level terrain o Two lanes o A traffic mix approximating: 1% trucks, 1% buses, 4%
recreational vehicles during the summer The (v/c) ratio at capacity flow is 1.0 from Table 3-1 of j the HCM. The lane width factor, fw, taken from HCM Table 3-2 = l 1, for a facility with 12 ft. lanes, 6 ft. shoulder, and a 4 lane J facility.. The vehicle mix factor, fHV, is computed in a manner similar to that for the rural road segments. The value obtained is fMV " 0.96. g The final factor, f , is designed to adjust the service flow to account for differinh driver characteristics. The suggested values > [HCM, Table 3-10) range from 0.75 to 1. 0 for . weekday or commuter traffic. It is expected that during an evacuation, the-most experienced person in the group will drive. Further, it is assumed that virtually all drivers are familiar with this major , 3-10 Rev. 0
6 road in the Pilgrim EPZ. Therefore, a factor f p = 0.90 was < selected. On the basis.of these factors, a freeway capacity VE = 1728 vph1 was selected.* This estimate translates into a mean vehicle headway of 2.1 seconds. Freeway Ramos . Capacity of freeway ramps was assumed to be 1333 vphl. This is a conservative estimate (see HCM, Table 5-5], and corresponds to a queue discharge headway of 2.7 seconds per vehicle. Note that the simulation model will limit this service volume on the . ramp to lower values when traffic volumes on Route 3 are heavy. f.92 The issue of ocean fog must be addressed. Discussions with public officials in communities along the coast indicate that ocean fog is an unusual occurrence during the summer months. All agree that such fog, when it does appear, occurs primarily in the early morning and generally dissipates by 9 A.M., and no later than 10 A.M., in any event. Fog can also occur in the evening after the sun has set. ,
' It ,is generally acknowledged that beach area population is significantly below capacity in early morning and late evening.
Thus, scenarios 1 and 2 are certainly more severe than'an early morning scenario which includes the preeance of fog. Fog also occurs inland and qualifies as inclement weather, regardless of its location. The 1985 Highway capacity Manual indic.ates "that 10 to 20 percent reductions (in capacity) are typical and higher percentages are quite possible". Our capacity reductions of 20 percent for rain and 25 percent for snow are responsive to these guidelines. Link caeacities Appendix N presents the link capacities, V, E for the evacuation network shown in Figure 1-2. All links are identified by name and location (community). i .
*V E is synonymous with STE; as used in the HCM.
3-11 Rev. O END d
e
- 4. ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME I Federal Government , Guidelines (see NUREG 0654, Appendix 4) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with activities undertaken by the public in preparation for evacuation. We define the. _s_g of these-distributions of elapsed times, to be defined later f as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.
Backcround In general, an accident at a nuclear power station attains one or. more " classes" of Emergency Action Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details):
- l. Unusual Event 1
- 2. Alert i
- 3. Site Area Emergency
. 4. General Emergency .
At each level, the Federal Guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local j offsite authorities. If we limit this discussion to the i evacuation decision action, then the first off-site public i notification and response can occur at the time of the Site Area 1 Emergency.
- As a Plannina Basis,' we w.ill adopt a conservative posture, in accord with Federal Regulations, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip, Generation Time. We will assume:
o The accident escalates almost immediately to a Site Area Emergency following activation of the local Emergency Operation Centers (EOC) . o That further escalation to a General Emergency occurs 15 minutes later. o That the order to evacuate is transmitted to the public 10 minutes after the General Emergency is declared. . We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events can occur at '.h e Pilgrim Station within the indicated. time frame. Rather, these ' assumptions are only necessary in order to: o Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Gen'eration distribution in the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654. 4-1 Rev. O j
o Identify temporal points of reference for the purpose of uniquely defining " Clear Time" and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). It is more likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency at Pilgrim. For example, suppose
.two hours elapse from the declaration of a General Emergency to the Order to Evacuate. In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation during this two-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower l
when the Order to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of th'e General Emergency.
- Thus , the time needed to evacuate the EPZ, after the Order to Evacuate may be significantly less than the estimates presented in this report.
On the other hand, there is a low probability that an "immediate" General Emergency can arise, with the Order to Evacuate given almost simultaneously. In this case, the evacuation time estimates (ETE) will be somewhat longer than the figures presented herein. The planning basis adopted here approximates the " worst case" conditions, ant'. is within 25 minutes of the most extreme condition. The notification process consists of two events: o Transmitting information (e.g. using sirens, tone alerts, EBS broadcasts, loudspeakers). o Receivina and correctly intereretina the information that is transmitted. The resident population within the EPZ exceeds 70,000 persons who are deployed over an area of approximately 150 square miles, and engaged in a wide variety of activit.ies. During the summer, more than 30,000 additional persons could be within the EPZ. It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information. The' amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, persons who will be directly involvqd with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time that the emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other members in the household upon receiving notification of an emergency. As indicated in AppeMix 4 of NUREG 0654, the estimated elapsed times for the receips of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting ths different notification times for 4-2 Rev. 0
I different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time I distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between - different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that more accurate assessments may be i obtained.
]
I For exampls, persons located inland within the EPZ will be ' notified by siren and radio. Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -- families will be united in the evenings and at night, but dispersed during the day. In this i respect, weekends will differ from weekdays. Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips, consists of a sequence of events and activities. Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity. Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in " series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the I completion of.all preceding events) or may be in par.allel (two or more activities may.take place over the same period.of time), Activities conducted in series are fun'ctionally decendent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one-another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number Event Description ' 1 No-accident condition 2 Awareness of accident situation 3 Depart place of work 4 Arrive home 5 Leave to evacuate the area Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: EventSecuehce Activity 1 --> 2 Public receives notification information 2 --> 3 Prepare to leave work l 2,3 --> 4 Travel home ' 2,4 --> 5 Prepare to leave for evacuation trip These relationships may be depicted graphically as shown in Figure 4-1. 4-3 Rev. 0 l l
I 1 2 3 4 5
- :: :e :e :e Inland and Residents 1 2 5 Beach area vacationers e :e re (a) Accident occurs during mid-week, at mid-day; summer season 1 2 5
- :e ze Inland and Residents 1 2 5 e :e re Beach area vacationers l (b) Accident occurs during week-end, at mid-day; summer season 1 2 3 4 5 e :- :e :e ,,,; -
. (c) Accident 6ccurs during mid-week, at mid-dhy; non-summer "
season 1 2 5
- :: :e (d) Accident occurs in the evening, non-summer season 1 2 3, 5 e :e :e ,
(e) Employees within EPZ who live outside of the EPZ l l _ Time
~ Increasing
\
e Event
- Activity Figure 4-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation (see text for definition) 4-4 Rev. 0
( 1
Noto that svant 5, "Loavo to ovacusto tho area" is conditional either on event 2 .qr event 4. That is, activities 2
--> 5 can be undertaken in parallel with activities 2 --> 3, , 3
--> 4 and 4 --> 5, as shown in Figure 4-1 (a) and (c).
Specifically, it is possible that one adult member of a household can prepara to leave home (i.e. secure the home, pack clothing, etc.), while others are travelling home from work. In this instance, the household members would be able to evacuate sooner than if such preparation had to be deferred until all household members had returned home. However, we will adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence. It is seen from Figure 4-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next. Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities leading to that event. Specifically, in order to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must somehow obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Precedina Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by " summing" the time distributions of all prior, contributing activities. (This " summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since we are-operating on distributions -- not numbers). , Time Distribution of the Notification Process: . Activity 1~ --> 2) We know of no survey which has accumulated empirical information describing the rate at which notification information is received. Nevertheless, there is sufficient data to obtain a reasonable estimate of a notification time frame, based largely on the information obtained from the telephone survey. (See Appendices F and G). The following information is relevant: Average Household (HH) Size: 3.21 Avg. Number of Commuters per HH: 754/59P = 1.26 Percentage of Residents who will be within the EPZ if accident, occurs at mid-week, mid-day: 0.41 (1.26) + (3.21-1.26) x 100 = 76.8 3.21 since 41 percent of all commuters work within the EPZ, according to the survey results. 4-5 Rev. O
Tho populat' ion within the EPZ includes 76.8 parcant of all residents, as computed above, and 100 percent of all tourists and employees, by definition. . It is reasonable to expect that 90 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 15 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The commuters outside the EPZ will be notified somewhat later, say uniformly between 10.and 40 minutes, while the entire beach area population will be notified within 15 minutes. The primary means of notifying beaters off shore is through EBS and Coast Guard broadcasts. However, mariners who do not have radios, or whose radios are not tuned to EBS or emergency frequencies will take longer to notify. It is assumed that 50 percent of boaters are notified by 40 minutes, with the balance notified by 1 hour after the Site Area Emergency has been declared. The resulting distributions for this notification activity are given below: Distribution No. 1. Notification Time Activity 1 --> 2 Persons off the Beach: Distribution lA Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Notified- . 5- 15 10 46 15 79 20 85 25 90 30 ' 95 35 ' 98 40 100 Persons on the Beach: Distribution 1B Elapsed Cum. Pct.. Time (min.) Notified 5 20 10 60 15 100 Persons on Boats! Distribution 1C Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Notified 5 5 10 - 10 , 15 15 20 20 4-6 Rev. 0 l 4
Elep2cd Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Notified 25 25
, 30 30-35 40 40 50 45 60 50 , 75 ,
55 90 l 60 100 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification. Most employees would take action to leave work quickly. Commuters who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Pearsonnel responsible for equipment would require additional time to secure the facility. The distribution of Activity 2 --> 3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below as Distribution 2. Distribution No. 2. Time to Prepara to Leave Work: Activity 2 --> 3 Elapsed Cum.' Pct. *
. Time (min.) Leavine Work 5 56 10 72 15 81 20 84 25 85 30 92 35 93 40 94 45 95 50 96 55 96 60 98 65 98
,, 70 98 75 98 80 98 85 99 90 99 95 99 100 99 '
105 99 110 100 4-7 Rev. 0
NOTE: The curvey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't know" response Distribution No. 3. Time to Travel Home: Activity 3 --> 4 This data is provided directly by 'the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below: Elapsed Cum. Pct. Time (min.) Returnine Home 5 ' 12 10 26 15 37 20 47 25 52 30 60 - l 35 64 40 68 45 77 50 80 l 55 81 60 89 65 91 70 92 l 75 94 . 80 96 ,
,85 97 ~
90 98 95 98 100 98 105 99 110 99 115 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't know" response Distribution No. 4. Time to Prenare to Leave Home: Activity 2.4 --> 5 This data is provided directly by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 2-1 and listed below: 1 Distribution 4A: Residents & Tourists off the Beach Elaesed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Ready to Evacuate
> 5 9 10 19 15 30 20 43 4-8 Rev. 0 l
j Elaesed Time (min) Cum. Fct. Ready to Evacuate 25 53 < 30 60 35 63 40 . 66 45 68 50 73 ; 55 76 60 80 ' 65 83 70 85 75 88 80 89 85 89 90 90 95 90 l 100 90 1 l 105 90 l 110 91 ) 115 92 120 92 125 93 130 94 l 135 96 140 96 145' '96 l 150 96 155 96 160 96 165 96 170 96 175 96 180 97 185 97 190 . 98 195 99 200 99 205 99 210 100 NOTE: The original data was obtained in 15-minute increments. The above figures were calculated by interpolation and normalised as before. Distribution 4B: Tourists on the Beach i Distribution 4B describes the estimated preparation time to leave the beach area. While we have no empirical data to support this distribution, we do know the physical domain of the beach area and the activities involved. 4-9 Rev. 0 I
. people on the beach or out walking would merely gather,their belongings and walk to their respectivo cars. Others who are lodged in overnight .ecommodations and in tourist facilities would return to pack tr.oir belongings and leave. Business people and permanent residents must secure their properites and then l . pack, before leaving.
on a weekend, almost half of all visitors are day-trippers. These people should be able to access their respective cars within 30 minutes of the receipt of the notification information and be ready to depart. About 80 percent of the remaining visitors (i.e. 40 percent of the total) should be able to access their respective cars within 1. 5 hours. The remaining people are those who must take longer, say, up to two hours. The resulting distribution follows: ElaDsed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Ready to Evacuate 5 12 10 23 15 35 20 46 25 57 30 68 35 70 40 72 45 74 50 76 55 79 60 81 65 84 70 86 75 89 80 91 85 94 90 97 95 97 100 98 105 98 110 99 A15 99 120 100 Distribution 4C: Boaters Return to Launch Sites Distribution 4C daccribing the estimated time required for boaters to motor, or sail, back to the marina, yacht club, or launching ramp from where their trip originated after notification. The data for this distribution was obtained from 4-10 Rev. 0
1 interviews with beaters rsturning to public launch ramps in Plymouth and Duxbury. Elaesed Time (min) Cum. Pet. Arrivina at Dock 1 5 0 10 7 15 17 20 51 25 54 30 76 35 73 j 40 80 < 45 93 { 50 93 l 55 93 60 100 Distribution 4D: Boaters Precare to Evacuate . Distribution 4D describes the time required to load a boat trailer once the boat is at the launch ramp. The data for this distribution was ob'tained from interviews with bear.ers. Elaesed Time (min) Cum. Pct. Boats Loaded 5 39
, 10 , . 81 '
15 ' 97 20 97 25 97 i 30 . 97 > l 35 97 40 97 45 97 50 100 l 1 Calculation of Trin Generation Time Distribution Associated with each event is a time distribution reflecting the range of time for the population to complete'the preceding activity, and the time distribution of the preceding event. When an event, k+1, depends upon a prior event, k, then the time distribution of this event, k+1, can be calculated if: o The time distribution of event, k, is known, dnd o The time distribution of the activity k->k+1, is known.or can be estimated. , 4-11 Rev. 0 l l I l ____-______-a
We now present the analytical treatment to compute the distribution of event, k+1, given the distribution of the prior event and of the connecting activity. - Alcorithm No. 1 (Decendent Events) l computationally, all distributions are represented as histograms composed of elements (i.e. each element represents a percentage of the population). The following definitions apply: Let Ti(k) = Time at which the ith element of the histogram has completed event, k; i=1,2...,I , tj = Time required for jth element of the histogram to 3 perform the activity, k->k+1; j =1,2, . . . ,J
]
Pi(k) = Percent of population represented by the ith element of the histogram for event, k. That is, Pi(k) percent of the population has completed the event, k, at time, Ti(k), over the interval, 6T=T i(k)-T _1(k) . i Pj = Percent of population which requires tj minutes to complete activity, k ->k+1. . Tm(k+1) = Time at which ath element.of the histogram has , complete 6 event, k+1; m=1,2,...,1+j-1,...I+J-1 Pm (k+1) = Percent of population ^ represented by the mth element of the histogram for event, k+1. That is, Pm(k+1) percent of the population has completed the event, k+1, at time, Tm(k+1), over the time interval, oT=Tm(k+1) - T m-1(k+1) Then, Pm(k+1) = E i,j -> Pi(k)pj /100 i+j-1=m Tm(k+1) = Ti(k)+tj where i+j-1=m I+J-1 Note: I g Pm(k+1) =1 m=1 4-12 Rev. O
Examole: Dependent Events--Application of Algorithm No. 1 Time Distribution Time Distribution of of event, k activity, k->k+1 i Pi(k) Ti(k) j Pj tj { l 30 10 1 50 20
'2 50 20 2 30 30 3 10 30 3 20 40 4 10 40 Let m = 1. Then i = j = 1
= (30) (50)/100 = 15 ;Ti(k+1) = 10+20=30 P1(k+1)
Let m = 2. Then i=1, j=2 ; i=2, j=1 P2(k+1) = [(30)(30) + (50) (50) ]/100=34 T2(k+1) = 10 + 3 0 = 4 0 Let m =,3. Then i = 1, j =3 ; i = 2, j=2 ; i=3, j =1 P3 (k+1) = -( (30) (20) + (50) (30) + (10) (50) ]/,100 =. 2 6 T3(k+1) = 10 + 40 =.50 l Let m = 4. Then i = 2, ja 3 ; i=3, j=2 ; i = 4, j =1 P4 (k+1) = 18 , T4 (k+1) = 60 1 Let m = 5. Then i = 3, j =3 ; i = 4, j=2 P5(k+1) = 5, T 5(k+1) = 70 Let m = 6. Then i = 4, j =3 ;Pi(k+1) = 2, Ti(k+1) = 80 l 1 l Comeuted Time Distribution of Event k+1 m Pm(k+1) Tm(k+1) 1 . 15 30 2 34 40 3 26 50 4 18 60 4-13 Rev. 0
~
- 3 Pm(k+1) Tm(k+1) 5 .5 70 6 2 80 Definitionally, the distribution for Event No 2 is
- identical to Distribution lA (or 1B), since Event No. 1 (the normal condition) is a continuum. To obtain the needed distributions we apply algorithm No. 1 repeatedly, as indicated below:
1 in order to which is ' Acolv Alcorithm No. 1 to Obtain'Dist. for named Distribution Distributions lA and 2 Event No. 3 A Distributions A and 3 Event No. 4 B Distributions B and 4A Event No. 5 C Distributions lA and 4A Event No. 5 D Distributions 1B and 4B Event No. 5 E Distributions 1C and 4C and 4D Event No. 5 EB . l Table 4.-1 lists the calculated distributions, which are . explained below: , 9
~
Distribution Explanation { A Time distribution of commuters leaving work. Also applies to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside the EPZ. B Time distribution of commuters arriving home. C Time distribution of residents in households with commuters, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip. D Time distribution of residents and tourists with no commuters in the household, leaving home to : begin the evacuation trip. j E Time distribution of beach area tourists leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip. ! EB Time distribution of boaters leaving the area to begin the evacuation trip. 4 4-14 Rev. 0 e
I i Tabic 4-1. Computed Trip GOnoration Cumulative Distributions (Percent) from Start of Notification Elaused Time Wr: Mint A H g a E gB 0:05 ,0 0 0 0 0 0 0:10 8 0 0 1 2 0 0:15 28 1 0 6 11 0 0:20 53 5 0 13 25 0 0:25 65 11 1 23 36 1 i 0:30 73 19 2 33 44 2 0:35 79 27 4 43 55 4 0:40 - 85 34 6 51 64 7 . 0:45 90 41 10 57 70 11 0:50 92 48 14 61 72 14 l' 0:55 93 54 19 65 74 19 1:00 95 60 '23 69 76 25 1:05 96 65 28 73 78 32 1:10 97 70 32 77 81 40 1:15 97 75 37 80 83 49 ) 1:20 98 79 42 83 86 59 1 1:25 - 98 83 46 85 88 69 1:30 98 85 51 87 91 76 1:35 98 88 55 88 93 82 1:40 99 90 60 89 96 87 1:45 99 92 63 90 97 91 1:50 99 93 . 67 90 98 . 94 l 1:55 99 94 70 .90 98 96
- 2:00, '99 95 73 91 99 97 -
2:05 100 96 76 91 99 99 , 2:10 97 78 92 100 99 2:15 97 80 92 99 2:20 98 82 93 99 2:25 98 83 95 99 2:30 99 85 95 100 2:35 99 86 96 2:40 100 87 96 2:45 89 96 2:50 90 96 2:55 91 96 3:00 91 96 1 3:05 92 96 3:10 93 97 3:15 , 93 97 3:20 94 98 l 3:25 94 98 3:30 95 99 3:35 95 99 3:40 96 100 3:45 96 3:50 96 3:55 97 4-15 Rev. 0
Tablo 4-1. Computcd Trip Gcnoration Cumulative Distributions (Percent) from Start of Notification (conc.) Elaesed Time (Hr: Mini _ A- 3 G D E EB { 4:00 97 4:05 98 4.:10 99 4:15 , 100 l l o i
's I
i 4-16 Rev. 0 l l
Tho Trip Gancration timo dictributione for non-baachgoing population groups within the EPZ has its origin point at the time i notification of the public begins at the Declaration of a General Emergency. Ten minutes later, at the time of the Evacuation l Recommendation, about 8 percent of employees within the area are ' ready to begin the evacuation trip; less than 1 percent of residents are ready to evacuate. The scenario is different for peop'e l at the beach, current planning calls for beach areas to be closed beginning at en Alert, er 25 minutes prior to the Evacuation Recommendation. Consequently, when the Recommendation to Evacuate is issued, about 36 percent of'the people at the beach are ready to comply, or have already begun leaving the beaches. Figure 4-2 presents these distributions (A, D and E) on the same time scale, showing their relative temporal displacement. Trio Generation Distributions for Week-end Scenarios The IDYNEV model is designed to accept varying rates of trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These centroids are partitioned into several sets -- those for beach area traffic, for residents and employees. These histograms, which represent Distributions A, D and E, proper.ly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Tables 4-2 and 4-2a. Note that the point of reference (i.e. "zero time") of .these histograms is the time at which the Recommendation to Evacuate is given. ' These tabulations present the trips generated angl the rates of trip-making within each indicated time period, both expressed as a percentage of the total number of trips to be generated at each centroid. The rate of trip making is found by: I Rata = Tries cenerated in Time Period (cercent) ' Duration of Time Period (hours) Trio Generation Distribution for Permanent Residents, for Weekday Scenarios The mid-day scenario produces a Trip Generation dist'ibution r which is a linear combination of Distributions C and D. Distribution C applies to those households with at least one commuter, while, Distribution D applies to those households with no commuters. This linear combination results in Distribution F, reflecting the fact that about 22 percent of the households within the EPZ have no commuters, according to the telephone survey (see Appendix G). Distribution F is listed in Tables 4-3 and in Table 4-4 in a format suitable for input to IDYNEV. 4-17 Rev. 0
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i l Tablo 4-2. Trip Gansration Timo Histograms for the Week-end Scenarios l l i l Time Period Percent of Total Trips and Rates which are Relative to Generated During the Indicated Time Periods Time of Reccamendation Beach Areas Residents Employees To Evacuate (from Dist. E) (from Dist. D) (from Dist. A) (Hrs.: Min.) Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate ) 1
-0:25 t'o 0:00 36 86 0 0 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 28 112 6 24 28 112 )
0:15 to 0:30 10 40 27 108 45 180 i 0:30 to 0:45 7 28 24 96 17 68 ! 0:45 to 1:00 7 28 12 48 5 20 1 1:00 to 1:30 10 20 18 36 3 . 6 1:30 to 2:00 2 4 4 8 1 2 l 2:00 to 2:30 0 0 5 10 1 2 2:30 to 3:00 0 0 1 2 0 0 3:00 to 3:30 0 0 3 6 0 0 3:30 onward 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 n , j Units: Trips, percent of total trips which are generated at the origin centroids during indicated Time Period ' Rate, percent of total trips per hour during indicated Time Period <
^
l 1 I 3 4-19 Rev. 0 I
Tabic 4-2a. Trip G:noration Timo Histograma for the Beating Population (Distribution EB) Percent of Total Trips and Rates Time Period Relative to which are Generated During the Time of Recommendation to Indicated Time Periods Evacuate (Hrs: Min) , , Trios Rate
-0:25 to 0:00 O O 0:00 to 0:15 0 0 0:15 to 0:30 2 8 0:30 to 0:45 9 36 0:45 to 1:00 14 56 1:00 to 1:30 51 102 1:30 to 2:00- 21 42 2:06 to 2:30 3 6 2:30 to 3:00 0 0 l
Units: Trips, percent of, total trips which are generated at the origin' centroids during indicated Time Period Rate, percent of' total trips per hour during
. indicated Time Period i
s 4-20 Rev. 0 1
1 Table 4-3. Computed Trip Generation Time Distribution i for the Mid-week, Mid-day scenario ' (Distribution F) ) Elapsed Time Cum. Pct. of Elapsed Time Cum. Pct of (Hrs: Mint Tries Generated (Hrs: Mini Tries Generated 0:05 0 2:05 79 0:10 0 2:10 81 0:15 1 2:15 83 - G:20 3 2:20 84 0:25 6 2:25 86 0:30 9 2:30 87 0:35 13 2:35 88 0:40 16 2:40 89 0:45 20 2:45 91 0:50 24 2:50 91 0:55 29 2:55 92 1:00 33 3:00 92 1:05 38 3:05 93 1:10 42 3:10 94 1:15 46 3:15 94 - 1:20 51 3:20 95 1:25 55 , 3:25 ,
, 95 ,
1:30 ~ 59 3:30 - 96 1 1:35 62 3:35 - 96-1:40 66 3:40 96 l 1:45 69 3:45 97 1:50 72 3:50 97 1:55 74 3i55 98 2:00 77 4:00 98 4:05 99 . 4:10 100 j i I 1 l i 1 l 4-21 Rev. 0
Table 4-4. Trip Generation Time Histograms for the Week-day Scenarios (Dist. F) Percent of Total Trips and Rates Time Period Relative to which are Generated During the Time of Recetmmendation to Indicated Time Periods Evacuate (Hrs.: Mini Tries Rate
-0:25 to 0:00 0 0 0:00 to 0:15 1 4 0:15 to 0:30 8 32 0:30 to 0:45 11 44 0:45 to 1:00 13 52 '
1:00 to 1:30 26 52 1:30 to 2:00 18 , 36 , 2:00 to 2:30 10 20 2:30 to 3:00 5 10 3:00 to 3:30 4 8 3:30 to 4:00 , 2 4 4:00 to 4:10 2 12 4:10 onward 0 , Units: Trips, percent o'f total trips at centroid Rate, percent of total trips, per hour i i
.l 9
4-22 Rev. 0
1 I
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ga2w clearance Time Distribution I Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance. Discussions with local officials indicate that snow plowing equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that their efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours. . Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -- albeit at a lower capacity -- under the vast majority of snow conditions. Nevertheless, for , the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it is necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to make them passable. These clearance activities take time, and this time lag must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions. Thus, we must postulato a separate distribution for the driveway snow clearance activity and then introduce this distribution into the procedure used to calculate the trip generation time distribution. The time needed to clear a driveway depends on the depth.of snow, the available equipment and the number of able-bodied personnel to perform the task. Since this area is accustomed to heavy recurring snowfalls (see Table 1-1), it is reasonable to expect that virtually al1 households have made provision for snow clearance by either owning some form of equipment or by c'ontracting for such service to be performed by others. The snow clearance distribution shown in Table 4-5 was obtained from the telephone survey. i It is recognized that the snow clearing activity can take I place in parallel with other activities, e.g. preparing for evacuation. Nevertheless, we will adopt the conservative point of view that this activity follows the preparation activity, rather than proceeding in parallel with it. This posture will lengthen the temporal extent of the trip generation process. , The2 event " Driveways cleared of snow" will be identified as l Event No. 5 and the event " Leave to Evacuate" is Event No. 6 for 1 scenarios involving snow conditions.
)
The follow'ing additional operations are needed to compute i the trip generation distributions for the inclement weather, snow scenarios: J 4-23 Rev. 0
Table 4-5: Distribution of Snos clearance Time:- Distribution 5 Elapsed Time Cum. Percent of (min.) Driveways Cleared 5 8 10' 17 15 28 20 37 25 45 30 50 35 53 40 56 45 59 50 63 55 66 60 70 65 73 70 76 75 79 . 80 81 85 83 90 84 95 "' 85
, 100 86 105 86 110 87 115 88 120 88 125 89 130 90 135 91 140 91 145 91 150 92 155 92 160 92 165 92 170 92 175 93 180 94
, 185 95 190 97 195 100 Note: The survey data was normalized to distribute the " Don't Know" response ,
4-24 Rev. 0
in ordar to which is Acolv Alcorithm No. 1 to obtain Dist. for named Distribution) Distributions A and 5 Event No. 6 G Distributions F and 5 Event No. 6 H Distributions D and 5 Event No. 6 I l The results of these calculations are shown in Table 4-6 in a format consistant with the others. Note: . o Distribution G applies to employees i o Distribution H applies to residents during mid-day o Distribution I applies to residents during the evening / weekend and for transients. Appendix M presents the loading rates at each origin centroid shown in Figure 1-2. Note that these are the estimated rates at which vehicles leave their respective points of origin l (i.e. home, beach area, motel, place of business) to begin the evacuation trip. The rates at which these vehicles enter the evacuation network, as shown on Figure 1-2, via their respective Access Links, depend on traffic conditions, and may be lower than the rates shown in Appendix M. The IDYNEV simulation submodel computes these " access" loading rates internally, in . order to realistically represent the evacuation environment. N 1 1 1
- 4-25 Rev. 0 l
Tabic 4-6. Trip GGnoration Timo Histogramo for the Inclement Weather, Snow, Scenarios (Distributions G, H, I) Time Period Relative Percent of Trips' and Rates which are to Time of Generated During the Indicated Recommendation Time Periods to Evacuate (Hrs.: Min.) - Dist. G Dist. H Dist. I Trips Rate Trips Rate Trips Rate 0:00 to 0:15 1 4 0 0 0 0 0:15 to 0:30 8 32 0 0 4 16 0:30 to 0:45 11 44 3 12 . 11 44 0:45 to 1:00 13 52 5 20 13 52 1:00 to 1:30 26 52 16 32 23 46 1:30 to 2:00 18 36 19 38 17 34 2:00 to 2:30 10 20 17 34 10 20 2:30 to 3:00 5 10 13 26 6 12 3:00 to 3:30 4 8 8 16 5 10 3:30 to 4:00 4 8 7 14 6 12 4:00 to 4:10 0 0 2 12 1 6 4:10 to 4:30 0 0 4 12 2 6 4:30 to 5:00 0 0 3. 6 , 1 2 5;00 to 5:30 0 0 3- .6 . 1 2 5:30 onward 0 .0 0 0 0 O
~
Units: Trips, percent of total trips at centroid Rate, percent of total trips per hour s 4-26 Rev. O END -- i-
- 5. ESTIMATED TRAFFIC DEMAND FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation case may be defined in terms of the region to be evacuated and the scenario under consideration. The definition of region and scenario is as follows:
Region - A grouping of emergency response planning areas (Subareas) within the EPZ. Depending on such f actors as wind direction, and accident severity, a protective action decision may iden,tify the need to evacuate one or more such subareas. Each region takes the approximate form of a circular area, or ' of a " keyhole" configuration consisting of a quadrant appended to a central circular area. Scenario - A combination of time of day, season and weather conditions. Scenarios define the sizes of, and trip generation distributions for, the various population groups. In addition, the specified weather conditions influence the estimates used for highway capacity. A total of 12 Subareas were defined which encompass all of the potential groupings to be considered. Subarea boundaries are described in Table 5-1 and shown in Figure 5-1. Regional groupings are presented in Table 5-2. A total' of 10 scenarios were evaluated for all regions, yielding 240 case studies. Table 5-3 presents a description of all scenarios. I Each accident scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. Table 5-4 summarizes the percentage of each population group assumed to evacuate with each scenario. The following figure numbers present population "reses" for each scenario. Ficure N mbers Permanent scenario ' Resident Transients Emelovees Eg,g. Y,3h. 222. Y_th. ESR. V_th. I l 1,2 2-4, 2-5 2-6, 2-7 5-2, 5-3 3,4 2-4, 2-5 5-4, 5-5 2-8, 2-9 5,6,7 2-4, 2-5 5-6, 5-7 2-8, 2-9 8,9,10 2-4, 2-5 5-10, 5-11 5-8, 5-9 5-1 Rev. 0 l
q 1 D3Ecription of Pilgrim Em0rgancy Tablo 5-1.
- l Response Planning Areas 1 Subarea 1
'. Clifford Road north to coast and south to Howland Pond's southern shore; from Howland Pond southeast to Strand Avenue / Route 3 intersection; and east on Strand Avenue to coast. Subarea 2 South along Russell Mills Road to Jordan Road, south to Long Pond Road and south to Long Pond Road and Ship Pond Road 1 intersection. East on Ship Pond Road to the coast; north along the coast to Strand Avenue. Strand Avenue west to Strand I Avenue / Route 3A intersection and northwg to the southern shore of Howland Pond.
~
Subarea 3 South Park Avenue west to North Park Avenue, west to Route 44 . West to Route 3. South on Route 3 to eastern shores of Deep Water Pond' and Billington Sea, south along Watercourse Road to eastern shores of Little South Pond, Great South Pond, Boot Pond and Gunners Exchange Pond. Southeastern shore of Gunners Exchange Pond southeast to intersection of Long Pond and Alden Roads. North on Long Pond Road to Jordan Road, northeast on Jordan Road to Russell Mills Road. East on Russell Mills Road to Clifford Road. North on Clifford Road to the coast. ) Clifford Road north to the coast, north to northern point of Plymouth Beach, south on western shore of Plymouth Beach, north along coast to South Park Avenue, i Subarea 4 Powder Point Bridge south on Duxbury Beach to Gurnet Point; west along Saquish Neck to Saquish Head; and Clarks Island. 5-2 Rev. 0
l Tablo 5-1. 03ccription of Pilgrim Emorgoney Response Planning Areas (cont.) l Subarea 5 From intersection of Long Pond and Alden Roads southwest to Upper College Pond Road. Southwest along Upper College Pond Road to Plymouth / Carver Town Line. Southwest on Plymouth / Carver Tcwn Line, east on Plymouth /Wareham Town Line ~ and east along ) Plymouth /Barnstable County Line. From Plymouth /Barnstable County Line, north along coast to Ship Pond Road, west on Ship Pond Road to Long Pond Road; north on Long Pond Road to intersection at Alden Road.
)
Subarea 6 - From intersection of Routes 3 and 44, w131 on Route 44 to Plymouth / Carver Town Line. South along Plymouth / Carver Town Line to Upper College Pond Road. Northeast along Upper College Pond Road to Alden Road, east along Alden Road to intersection at Long Pond Road. West to southeastern shore of Gunners Exchange Pond. North along' eastern shores of Gunners Exchange Pond, Boot Pond,
. Great South' Pond, and Littl~e South Pond. North along Watercourse Road to eastern shores of Billington Sea and Deep Water Pond to ,
Route 3. No'rth on Route 3 to intersection at Route 44. ! I l Subarea 7 I
)
Plymouth /Kingston Town Line from the coast southwest to I Plymouth / Carver Town Line and south to Route 44; east along Route 44 to North Park Avenue, gaat to South Park Avenue, east to the Coast. Subarea 8 Kingston Town LiJtee (antire Town of Kingston) . l l s 5-3 Rev. 0 1
Table 5-1. Description of Pilgrim Emergency Response Planning Areas (conc.) Subarea 9 Duxbury/Marshfield; Duxbury/Pembroke, and Duxbury/Kingston Town Lines; east then northeast along Duxbury coast to Powder Point
, Bridge; from western edge of bridge g3_q1 to Duxbury Beach, north
) to Duxbury/Marshfield Town Line. Subarea 10 _ Marshfield/Duxbury Town Line at coast, wgma and northwest to j Route 139. Route. 139 3A31 to coast, south along coast to Marshfield/Duxbury Town Line. Subarea 11 Plympton/ Carver Town Line at Kingston Town Line, wg31 to Route 58; south on. Route 58 to Carver /Wareham town Line, _ southeast to
' Carver / Plymouth Town Line; north to Carver "
/.Plympton Town Line .at Kingston. .
Subarea 12 That portion of Cape Cod Bay and Atlantic Ocean extending 10 miles out from the Pilgrim Station. t l l 5-4 Rev. 0
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- a Figure 5-1: Pilgrim station Emergency Response planning Areas 5-5 Rev. 0
+
Table 5-2. Regional Evacuation Groupings Evacuation Reciang Wind Direction Recion From Extent Keyhole Subareas 1 Any To EPZ Boundary - 1 - 12 2 SSW-SSE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,4,9,10,12 3 SSE-ESE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 4 ESE-ENE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 5 ENE-NNE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,11,12 6 NNE-NNW To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,5,12 7 Any. To 5 Miles - 1,2,3,4,12 8 SSW-SSE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,4,12 9 SSE-ESE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,3,4,12 10 ESE-ENE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,3,12 11 ENE-NNE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,2,3,12 12 NNE-NNW To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,2,12 13 SSW-SSE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,9,10,12 14 SSE-ESE* To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 15 ESE-ENE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,9,1,0, 11,12 , 16 ENE-NNE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,11, ) 12 17 NNE-NNW To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,12 18 Any To 2 Miles - 1,12 Regions 19 through 24 correspond to specific subarea groups required for Protective Action Recommendations. 19 NE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 i 20 'ENE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,6,7,8,11,12 21 E To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,6,7,8,11,12 22 ESE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 23 NE w To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,6,11,12 24 ENE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12 5-0 Rev. 0
Tablo 5-3. Descriptions of Evacuation Sconarios Scenario 1 - Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather 1 All of the permanent residents are present. Tourist and beach populations are at capacity. Employees are assumed to be present i at 70 percent of midweek levels in the coastal region and at 40 I percent of midweek levels throughout the rest of the EPZ. Clear weather. . Scenariq_lA - Summer, Weekend, Evening, GQod Weather All of the permanent residents are present. Tourist and beach populations are at capacity. Employees are assumed to be present l at 70 percent of midweek levels in the coastal region and at 40 percent of midweek levels throughout the rest of the EPZ. Clear weather. Typical northbound traffic is present on Route 3 at the start of evacuation. Scenario 2 - Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain . Same population as for Scenario 1. Rain occurs which reduces i highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. Scenario 2A - Summer, Weekend, Evening, Rain
^
{ l Same population as for Scenario 1A. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. i Scenario 3 - Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourists and beach area transients are at 75 percent of peak values. All employees are at work, as are comkuters from within the EPZ who work outside the EPZ. Good weather. Scenario 4 - Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain Same population as for Scenario 3. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. 5-7 Rev. 0 e
Table 5-3. Daccriptions of Evacuation Scenarios (conc.) Scenario 5 - Off-season, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourist population is
. at 25 percent of peak. There are no beach area transients or boaters. Employment is at ,100 percent. Clear weather.
Scenario 6 - Off-season, Midweek, Midday, Rain Same population as for Scenario 5. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. Scenario 7 - Off-season, Midweck, Midday, Snow Same population as for Scenario 5. Snow reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 25 percent. Driveways must be cleared of snow prior to the start of the evacuation trip. ~ S'cenario'8 - Off-season, Midweek, Evening,' Good Weather' or Off-season, Weekend, All day, Good Weather All permanent residents are present. Tourist population is at 25 percent of peak. There are no beach area transients or beaters. Employment is at 25 percent of the midweek peak. Clear weather. Scenario 9 - Off-season, Midweek, Evening,' Rain or off-season, Weekend, All day, Rain Same population as for Scenario 8. Rain occurs which reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 20 percent. Scenario 10 - Off-season, Midweek, Evening, Snow or off-season, Weekend, All day, Snow Same population as for Scenario 8. Snow reduces highway capacity and free-flow speeds by 25 percent. Driveways must be cleared of snow' prior to the start of the evacuation trip. 5-8 Rev. 0 h -- _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ____m_ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _
Tablo 5-4. Porc0nt of Population Groups for Various Scenarios Population Groups
. Transient Employees Scenario Permanent Tourists Beaches Coastal Inland Summer ,
Weekend, Midday 100 100 100 70 40 Scenarios 1,2 Midweek, Midday 100 75 75 100 100 Scenarios 3,4 Off-season . Midweek, Midday 100 25 0 100 100 scenarios 5,6,7 Midweek, Evening Weekend, All day 100 25 0 25 25 Scenarios 8,9.,10 n s s l I 5-9 Rev. O
1 It must be emphacizcd that this formnt is for procontation purposes, only. In conducting the analyses to estinate evacuation times, it was necessary to define the spatial distribution of traffic demand at a higher level of resolution by specifying gver 150 centroids. Zach centroid represents an area 1 (or " Zone") within a community and a population group. The locations of these centroids are shown in Figure 1-2. l l 1 I 1 l I 4 C w 5-10 Rev. 0
o t :1 i 1241 o H ; oj 0 NNW NNE O { 607\ 129 134 0 { 0l NW NE 10 mtas 478 0 52 0 WNW { 2403] o o ENE 5 1670 0 0 t oi 0 681 0 0 2 0
% 0 0 102 W 268 '
0 - O J , 0 1365 o 0 [ 17351 0 E l O! 171 0 30 o
. f 153 404 0 247 0 g
WSW 152 621 ESE l 728] O - [ 0l 178 0 o 0 SW ' l 1781 SE 179 0 L618 l-434 SSW 1 3311 o o.SSE , 0 g L 621] l I 81621 0 'te' 0 '" l 8071 POPULAil0N TOTALS N EUI Popu flCN
- i 02 744 TOTAL WILE S Qu ll0 02 744 I 2.g 3237 S .10 0.s 3981 __
3745 0 10 7726 IO-EPZ. 4J6 G-EFZ 8162 Figure 5-2. Employee Population, Scenarios 1,2 5-11 Rev. O
N 1 1141 0 I Ol HHW 0 HNE O 113 I OI NW HE 10 witEs 420 0 45 - 0 WHW 0 0 0
. ENE l 20611 1433 -
0 0 I OI 583 0 0 0 0 2 86 ,0 0 0
/
W 227 1168 0 0 0 0 E I I 146 tl l 0 0 LO [ 7 146 0 gg o 130 ~ ~ 0 345 0 WSW l 6211 y 131 g 531 ESE-l 0l 0 0 0 SW SE l 152l 152 0 l[_528l 371 SSW SSE o o I ml o g I 5311 l_ 6994 l o*'i,' go"g$i7' L 690 l
\!EHICLES I0TALS l N
- litMG MILES y g"g'IC E S l' ICIAL "I3 hkCL o2 636 o2 636 25 2770 05 3406 _
w 5 -10 3214 ' 0 10 6620 10-EPZ 374 0-r>7 i 6994 l Figure 5-3. Employee Evacuating Vehicles, Scenarios 1,2 5-12 - Rev. O
L_ 0 I licossl O H I oI NNW ONNE O [2007l 9042 0 NW ONE 409 . 10 un.as 1598 ' O WNW [151.0 1 925 3\0 5 ENE 0 0 I a1 0 0 585 O 0 00 0} O O W 900 O 3198 {0 0 0 0 [4664l 0 E 0 l 9 I 66 o 0 I 0 0 0 O 244 0 533 0 WSW - 0 896 - - 1 244 1 0 , - O ESE g, 3l 4160 0 SN 0 638 225 SE [ 6166] 2006 1515 Il084 I SSW 0 SSE [ 638 l Ill21 I 50 [ 29004 l o " e [ 1515 l POPULATION TOTALS RINo gMILES I POPub 10M TOTAL utLES kyy,'y o2 551 02 SSL 25 6225 os 6776 S to 19247 lO-EPZ 0 10 26023 2981 U-EFZ 49004 i o . Figure 5-4. Transient Population Scenarios 3,4 5-13 Rev. 0
I : 1 [ 4166 l 0N I O] NNW 0 HNE i
-0 0
[693} 3712 ' I I NW NE 20 10 witts
, 670 0
WNW 454 0 o ENE- [ 633l 401 5 0 t : l 0 0 1 232 0 0 / 0 .o W 152 1203 l 0 0 0 0 ' E I16801 0 0 l c [ . 245 0 0 0o o ,
~
~
104 ~~0 242 0 0 . i WSW 0 302 ESE U I 104 1 0 10 I I J266 , 0 O SW SE I I2043l 777 30 94 [46C l 154 o SSW 0 SSE . I 30 I
$o 1396 l o0 3 se i ,; i ,' ,y=r,' **i - i 1s4 i VEHICLES TOTALS RING MILES VEHs"CEsl ICIAL "8LII $LCLN 02 218 ' 1 02 218
\ 2*5 2513 05 2731 5 10 6583 0 10 9314 IO-EPZ 1042 0 ep? 10356 Figure 5-5. Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 3,4 ;
5-14 Rev. 0 l
. 1 L - T
[ L1231 ON [ 0 i NNW NNE U I se3 l , 826 0 o L_ 0 I NW l 136 NE 10 wites 447 0 WNW ' 0 [242 l 242 297 0 ENE 5 0 0 0 t c 1 U
)
0 0 0 g o W 301 1067 ' O J O 0 t 15571 O O 0 E 0 199 l 0 ! 0 7 O OOO I O l 82 0 178 WSW 0 0 0 258 I 82 1 o U [3l [ 0l 1387 . 0 SW . O [ 2056] ,69 213 SE 75 { 135l 505 SSW 0 0 SSE l 213 1
$o L 3331 l 68791 0 te'8* '"
10 M e I 505 1 POPULATION TOTALS RIMO. MILES A PON$ftON TOTAL WILES ' O1 7 kQ[TI 02 7 2*S S .10 1900 _ C*S 1907 407R 0 10 IO-EPZ 994 5885
- 6-EFL 6879 '
Figure 5-6. Transient Population Scenarios 5,6,7 5-15 Rev. 0
I 511 1 0 N l 0 l NHW 0 NNE - 0 o [ 196 ] 375 0 I 0 NW HE 7 10 uiLEs 139 0 o WNW 136 U 0 ENE I 109 l 109 5 o t e i 0 l 0 0 2 0 o g 0/0 g 0 0 l 0 W 52 428 0 0 j 0 ( I ss21 0 l 82 0 00\0
\ 0 o I
)
35 , 0 81 0 O WSW 0 85 ' ESE I 3s F 0 , [- o i 423 0 0 SW SE 1 es2 l 259 to
,t i 34 ;
51 SSW O SSE I 10 l 3o i 116l [_2356 ] Totei o ,, ,osn .nt
.. v Nc!.. { 51 1 VEHICLES TOTALS Rl,MG MILES VEHIC ES ll TOTAL MILES C$'CL
' O. 2 3 O'2 3 25 730 05 733 5 10 1275 0 10 2008 lO-EPZ 348 O - F P 7. 2356 Figure 5-7. Transient Population Vehicles Scenarios 5,6,7 5-16 Rev. 0
l oi I aa 1 0 N g ol NifW NNE
~ O l 2s21 al 48 0 0 [ 0l gw HE ,
10 uus . 171 ' 33 0 WNW 0 0 ENE I as:0 5
$,9 o g a t 01 241 0 0 63 j 0 W 172 0 a
[ 7231 488 0 \ 0 l 0 0 [ l ,,l 0 62 040 0 95 , 253 , 0 88 0 WSW 54 222 ESE. I 4101 o r.
, [oj 110 -
0 0 SW l 110I SE n2 0 t 221I SSW 155 0 0 SSE t 1661 0 I 222l l 32941 0 te' 10 Mi " l 289l POPULATION TOTALS RING.MitBS 02 popy"$ft0M TCTAL WILES MQf((y 267 o2 267 27 1155 c.s 1422 s .10 1600 o .10 lO-EPZ 3022 272 U-EFZ 3294 Figure 5-8. Employees, Scenarios 8,9,10 5-17 Rev. O
i ,1 - [ 41l o N
.I ol NNW_ 0 0 HNE O
" U
[ n9] 70 0 l 0I NW NE 10 uitas 149 0 28 0 WNW ENE o o [ n2 l . 5 i 0l 498 0 0 0 206 0 2 0 0 54 0 9 37 9 l W 147 418 0 0 o o [ l 6191 0 0
\0 1 1 0 [
52 0 40 o , 82 -
-0 76 0 WSW 46 190 ESE
[ 351l 0 , [ ol 94 O O ' O SW SE l 94 l 95 0 [ igg l 133 SSW SSE o o I 1411 o 3 1 190l
- s .,m . v o.i..
[- 2 8 2 3 l oi 7.' to ma.. I 247l VEHICLES TOTALS RiMG MILES C LAT E VEMIC E5 ll TCTAL MILES e( o.2 227 ti o2 227 2.s 988 os 1215
' s io 1374 o to 2589 -
lO-EPZ 234 0-E97 2823 i Figure 5-9. Employee Evacuating Vehicles, scenarios 8,9,10 I 5-18 Rev. 0
l 0l { 112 0 0 [ 0l NNW NNE O O O [_ 5831 gw 826 0 0 0l NE 136 10 Wltes 447 o
. i WNW l 2421 297 0 ENE 5
g 242 0 0 o t a1 , o U 0 o O 0 2 0 15 o p 0 0 . W O 301 1067 0 1 { I 15571 0 0 E 0 0 l 0! 0 0 0 0 __ I . 2500 82 0 178 WSW 0 0 258 t25821 0 ESE poj 1387 2231 0 o E'I 1 l_ 3618 l SE 213 75 1 505
- SSW 0 0 SSE l 2131 o g [ 333) i w 9411 ; ', ,' a ' ,= **" - i 505 i F0F'JLAT10N TOTALS MING. WILES 8E PCPU(A ICM TCTAL l WILES {'g*fg[g O. 2 u 7 02 7 25 1800 05 1807 5 10 4078 o .to 5885 10-EPZl 5056 4-IPz luv41 .
Figure 5 -10. Transient Population Scenarios 8, 9, 10 5-19 Rev. 0
10 I I sli1 0 N Io I HNW 0 NNE O O [ LM] 375 ' C NW HE 7 . 10 uitas 189 0 3 WNW 133 0 0 ENE I J9 l 109 0 [ -g j 0 0 0 l 0 00 0 2 o 1 0 0 0 0 W 52 428 O O O O E I562 1 0 0 Loj o 0 o0 0 , 35 81 0 0
.WSW 0 es ESE .
I 103sl 'O 1000 l c I 423 0 0 SW SE l 1307 l 884 to 31 [ ga j - 51 o_ SSW o - SSE I 10 l $0 l 116l u 981 i;',,',5",r,' - - i s1 i VEHICLES TOTALS
' E RING MILES VEHIC ES TCTAL WILES CgLAT(
+ o- 2 3 I o2 3 2*5 730 05 733 s to 1275 o 10 2008 10-EPZ 1973 0 ep? 3981 Figure 5-llTransient Population Vehicles scenarios 8,9,10 Rev. O l I
5-20 j END j
- 6. TRAFFIC CONTROL AND MANAGEMENT TACTICS i This section presents the current set of traffic control and management tactics which are designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources to implement these tactics include:
o Personnel with the capabilities of successfully performing
, the planned control functions of traffic guides.
1 o Equipment to assist these personnel in the performance of j their tasks: 1
- Traffic Barriers
- Traffic Cones !
- Signs o A plan which defines all- necessary details and is documented in a format which is easy to understand.
The functions to be performed in the field are:
~
- 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements which serve to l expedite travel out of the EPZ along routes which the analysis has found to be most effective. .
- 2. Discourace traffic movements which permit evacuating
, vehicles to travel- in a direction which takes them ! significantly closer to the power station, or which interferes with the productive flow of other evacuees. We employ the terms " facilitate" and " discourage" rather than l
" enforce" and " prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in '
performing the traffic control function. There are always ; legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than ' that indicated. For example: o He/she may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members preliminary to evacuating. o An evacuating driver may be taking a detour from the evacuation route in order to pick up a relative, o o The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity. The implementation of a plan Rust provide room for the application of sound judgment. The traffic cones and ba.rriers are deployed as indicated in the sketches of Appendix I, so that there remains room for vehicles to maneuver through these guides. That is, cones and barriers will not physically obstruct passage. In 6-1 Rev. 0
addition, priority will bo given to troncit vohicles (busos, vans, ambulances) and to other emergency vehicles (police, fire, tow trucks). . This set of control tactics is the outcome of the following process:
- 1. A field survey of these critical locations.
The sketches of Appendix I are based on the data collected during field surveys and upon large-scale maps. We have found these maps to be less than accurate in some respects.
- 2. Consultation with police department personnel of the towns who will be implementing them.
Clearly, any control tactics should be reviewed by
, trained personnel who are experienced in controlling <
traffic and who are familiar with the likely traffic patterns. Also these personnel know which intersections are probable bottlenecks under heavy traffic demand conditions for normal traffic patterns.
- 3. Prioritization of these TCP. Application of traffic control at some TCP will have a more pronounced influence on expeditirig traffic movements, than applying control at other TCP. Thusi during the mobilization of personnel to respond to the emergency situation, those TCP which are assigned a higher priority, will be manned earlier than the others.
This setting of priorities should be undertaken with the concurrence of town police. These priorities should be ! compatible with the availability of local manpower resources. In each sketch which appears in Appendix I, the control policy at each TCP is presented in a manner which is self-explanatory. Locations are labelled as: l l o Traffic Control Points (P-T-01) where traffic control is applied to assist evacuees. At the conclusion of the, evacuation, traffic control points are abandoned. o Traffic / Access control Points (P-AT-17) where the traffic control function is applied to assist evacuees until the completion of the evacuation. Following the evacuation, the location is needed to restrict access to an area. The access control at a given location might have several configurations depending on the Regions evacuated. 6-2 Rev. 0
o Access Control Points (P-A-53) where access to a given area is to be restricted. The access control at a given location might have several configurations depending on the Region evacuated. I Appendix L contains maps identifying the location of all ' traffic and access control points. Tables summarizing the resource-and manning requirement,s are also included in Appendix L. 1 l
)
l l s 6-3 Rev. O END l l
i
- 7. TPMFIC ROUTING PLANS
~
I Evacuation routes are composed'of two distinct components: l l o Routing from. a community being evacuated to the boundary of the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) , o Routing of evacuees from the EPZ boundary to Host communities and reception centers. Evacuees should be routed within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk. This requirement is met by routing traffic so as to move away from the location of Pilgrim , Station to the extent practicable and by delineating evacuation . 1 routes which expedite the movement of evacuating vehicles. l The routing of evacuees from the EPZ boundary to the host communities must also be responsive to several considerations:. o Minimizing the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary to the reception centers. o Relating the anticipated volume of traffic destined to each reception center, to the capacity of the reception center facilities. o Assigning the residents of'those towns which.are membhrs of a regional educational system, to the same reception' center, to the extent possible. This would expedite the reunion of school children with other members of the 1 household, should the evacuation take place during a ; school day. Consequently, there is a linkage between the routing plans and the choice of host communities. In light of this linkage, a review of the allocation of host communities to communities within the EPZ was performed. The current assignment of host communities to communities within the EPZ is shown below: Recention Center Subareas Wellesley (Proposed)
- 4,9,10 Bridgewater 8,11 Taunton 1,2,3,5,6,7
*The Reception Center in Weilesley has been proposed by the State of Massachusetts which is currently evaluating its feasibility.
7-1 Rev. C
The routing plans for each of these towns are presentdd in Appendix J. Appendix K presents maps -r one for each town -- delineating the evacuation routes from each community within the EpZ.
. Traffic ccstrol and routing plans evolved from preliminary designs which tore reviewed by local law enforcement personnel.
Contacts were maint'ained with town police and Massachusetts State Police officials. These contacts included the submission to the police of materials for review; telephone interviews, and, personal visits. Exhibit 7-1 presents the cover letter sent with the review materials. Table 7-1 presents the list of traffi'c management plan recipients. l l i I l l l l l l
\
J 7-2 Rev. 0 l _-- _-_ _ _ b
Exhibi 7-1 Letter to Police Chiefs y., KLD ASSOCIATES INCORPORATED 300 Broadway Huntington Station. NY t1746 (516) 549 9803 April 7, 1987 ) Dear Chief Boston Edison has a contract with the firm of KLD Associates, Inc. to perform a study which will update the existing Emergency Evacuation Plan for Pilgrim Station. KLD Associates, Inc. is a leading consultant in this field with many years of experience in developing such plans. h It is their practice to solicit the assistance and advice of
-all public agencias who are in a. position to c.ontribnte to,the-development of this plan. Specifically, KLD personnel would appreciate your input in'the following areas:
- 1. Locations of Traffic Control Posts (TCP)
Based on studies to date, KLD Associates, Inc. has identified certain locations where traffic control by police personnel could expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. There may be other locations where traffic control is also helpful, based on your knowledge of the highway system.
- 2. Evacuation Routes KLD has identified the major evacuation routes. While a thorough survey of the highway system was undertaken by KLD personnel, your knowledge of the highway and street systensis invaluable in evaluating these routes.
- 3. Personnel Resources All emergency plans must address the issue of resource constraints:
- How can personnel assignments be designed so as to maximize the protection of the public?
7-3 Rev. 0
Exhibit 7-1 Letter to Police Chiefs (Conc.)
- How long will it take to mobilize these resources following the declaration of an emergency?
- What equipment is needed...how best deployed?
- 4. General Review We tre seeking the best plan possible. Any and all suggestions from you will form the basis for further discussion and will serve to improve the plan in the best interests of the public.
~
KLD personnel hope to meet with you the week of April 13th. They will call you (or may have already done so) to set up an appointment to discuss these issues, at your convenience. I
. would greatly appreciate your participation and support. i Yours truly,
~
Edward Lieb'erman, P.E. Vice-President EL:kod I l P 7-4 Rev. 0
. 1 Table 7-1 Recipients of Traffic Manacement Plans Chief William P. Sullivan Marshfield Police Dept. )
1639 Ocean Street Marshfield, MA 02050 l 1\ Capt. William Murphy, Jr. . . f Plymouth Police Dept.. I Russell Street Plymouth, MA 02360 Chief Thomas Orr Carver Police Dept. Main Street, P.O. Box 9 Carver, MA 02330 Chief Enrico C. Cappucci Duxbury Police Dept. 443 West Street Duxbury, MA 02332 l, il Chief Kenneth Cram l Kingston Police Dept. 244 Main Street Kingston, MA 02364 Lt. Ed Begin' Massachusetts State Police Troop D Headquarters W. Grove Street Middleborough, PJL 02346 1
/
l 7-5 Rev. 0
. END )
E_ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ __ J
O
- 8. ACCESS CONTROL WITHIN, AND AT THE PERIPHERY OF, THE EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) AND DIVERSION ROUTES The purpose of peripheral access control is to restrict entry to the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and to expedite the traffic movement of evacuating vehicles. Entry should be permitted for the following groups:
o Commuters returning to the EPZ, to gcLther members of their household for the purpose of evacuation. o Transit vehicles (buses, vans, ambulances) dispatched to the EPZ to participate in any evacuation. o All vehicles transporting emergency response personnel. All other travelers seeking to gain, entry to the EPZ should be denied access and provided with local diversion routes. These local diversion rcutes will nnable those denied entry to reverse their paths and snek other routes outside the EPZ. Figure 8-l* indicates the major diversion route and the cordon line around the EPZ. The intersections of this cordon with highways demark the locations of Access Control Posts ( ACP)', 3 Appendix I presents sketches detailing the traffic management at each identified location. Appendix L presents maps which locate each point and tables which summarize the resource requirements and detail which access cont'rol points are manned for each evacuation Region. The diversion route was developed to satisfy the following objectives:
- 1. The route should be sufficiently removed from the EPZ so as to minimize (to the extent possible) the extent that diverted traffic will mingle with, and thereby impede, the evacuating vehicles travelling toward their respective host relocation centers. Any such mingling, and consequent impedance should take place well outside the EPZ.
- 2. To the extent possible, the diversion route should consist of high-capacity highways.
A comparisol$ of the diversion route in Figure 8-1, with the evacuation routes shown in Appendix K and described in Appendix J, will indicate that the first objective is satisfied. Specifically, the diversion routes chosen (i.e. I-93/ Route 128, I-95, I495/ Route 25, US Route 6) offers travelers a pa,th around the Pilgrim EPZ along major, limited-access routes. 8-1 Rev. 0
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V Discussions with the Massachusetts State Police have' indicated 4 the importance of maintaining traffic flow through the I-93, Route 3, Route 128 interchange. Consequently, it is proposed to inform southbound vehicles of the closure of Route 3 southbound at Route 1 123 in Norwell and suggest the use of the diversion route. Drivers l will be informed of these conditions through the use of temporary road signs, erected along southbound I-93 prior to the Route 3 interchange. Traffic proceeding s'outh on . Route 3 will also be informed via road signs of the closure of Route 3 in Norwell. In the event of an accident at Pilgrim Station, traffic from
. Cape Cod will be diverted from the Sagamore Bridge to the Bourne ,
Bridge. Thus, use of the Sagamore Rotary and westbound Route 6 north of the canal will be reserved for evacuating vehicles. At the option of state officials, traffic exiting Cape Cod *across the Bourne Bridge will be routed onto Route 25 at the Bourne Rotary. Evacuating traffic will enter Route 25 farther west, in Wareham. After the completion of evacuation from within the EPZ, the Sagamore Bridge would be reopened to traffic'from Cape Cod, at the discretion of state officials. The second objective has been satisfied by the choice of routes. All diversion routes are multilane highways. Routes I-93, I-95, I-495 and 25 are limited access highways. The northern end of the diversion route connects with I-93 at the Route 3' interchange, south of' Boston,'nhile the southern end ' of the diversion route connects ~with Routes 6,and 28, the primary
-access roads,to Cape Cod. ~
The cordon line and the ACP locations were developed to satisfy the following objectives:
- 1. Control all open roads crossing each Region boundary.
- 2. Select ACP locations
- as close to the EPZ boundary as possible so as to i minimize the number of people who could originate a trip l
*into the EPZ from points between the ACP and the EPZ I boundary.
- so as to minimize the number of personnel needed to secure *the EPZ boundary.
- which will enable those vehicles denied entry to the EPZ, to safely change direction with a minimum of delay and turbulence.
l 8-3 Rev. 0
- 3. Prioritize all ACP
- Priority 1 is assigned to all primary " Numbered" routes which service substantive volumes of traffic.
- Priority 2 is assigned to all other numbered routes.
- Priority 3 is assigned to all local " collector" roads.
- Priority 4 is assigned to all local roads which service low volumes of traffic.
Based' on a careful study of available, large-scale county i maps, the selected ACP locations satisfy objectives 1 and 2. The need for prioritization arises because well-defined criteria are I needed to identify: o The sequence in which the ACP will be manned. o Those ACP where a barrier, with a sign, will suffice for purposes of control, thus obviating the need for police personnel. Depending on circumstances, all Priority 4 ACP may be selected for unmanned (i.e. barrier + sign, only) control and, possibly, Priority 3 ACP as well. o Perform a field survey
- o- Sketch all ACP, -
o Distribute to police for review - The assignment of ACP by region depends on the geographical properties of each region. A total of 24 sets of Access Control Points were developed; one set for each Region. Appendix L presents this information. Note that all TCP within the EPZ should be activated even when the Recommendation to Evacuate affects a portion of the EPZ. Those TCP which are located outside the Region which is evacuated will be needed to expedite the movement of l evacuees outside that Region who elect to evacuate spontaneously. l At the completion of the evacuation process only the appropriate ACP will continue to be manned. Identification and Installation of Control Devices All Access Control Posts (ACP) are designed to restrict access into the Emergenty Planning Zone (EPZ) or into the Region ordered S to evacuate, to those vehicles whose occupants will provide some form of emergency-related service. The remaining traffic will be denied entry and will be provided an alternative route which ' directs them away from the EPZ. ' Whenever traffic operations at a location are restricted, it I is sound practice to inform drivers in a timely and unambiguous manner, and to assert guidance control. Both needs are fulfilled, 8-4 Rev. 0 l l l
in.part, by instaIling suitable traffic control devices. These devices include: o Regulatory Signs
.o Barricades e o Cone s,'
o Trail Blazer Signs o Illumination It is essential that these control devices, installed singly or in combination, satisfy the specifications of the Manual' on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD). The need for uniform standards is best explained by reference to the MUTCD; see Exhibit - 8-1. In the following discussion, we refer to relevant sections of the MUTCD as they apply to the Pilgrim Evacuation Plan. Exhibit 8-2 consists of excerpts from Section G, Part II, of l the MUTCD which is entitled, " Signing for Civil Defense". These provisions of Exhibit 8-2 apply directly to the Pilgrim Evacuation Plan. At ACP which are located at interchanges with Interstate Highways, and at some other Priority 1 locations, it will be necessary to install barricades on roads providing access to the EPt.- These b~rricades a should ae: portable (either " wing" type, which folds, or with. detachable footings) so that they'may easily be transported to the ACP locations and installed.. For Priority 4 ACP, and possibly for (some] Priority 3 ACP, barricade installations which physically block the lanes will replace the cones indicated on the sketches of Appendix I, when the ACP is unmanned. Exhibit 8-3 presents excerpts from the MUTCD specifications for barricades. Note that signs may be attached to barricades: for example, the AREA CLOSED sign
- shown on Exhibit 8-2 should be mounted on all such barricades. Barricade Type III is recommended by the MUTCD for road closure. We recommend that lighting devices flashing and steady yellow lights --
be attached to all barricadesi and clamped onto every third cono used at every ACP and TCP. Arrow Panels and advance warning signs are recommended for use on approaches to all ACP and TCP located on Expressways so as to inform drivers that traffic will be channelized onto an exit ramp. See Section E, Part 6 of the MUTCD for details on lighting devices and Section B, Part 6 of the MUTCD for channelization treatments on expressways. Exhibit 8-4 consists of excerpts from section C, Part 6 of the MUTCD, which describe the design and application of cones as channelizing devices. We prefer the use of cones, rather than drums, because: -
- l 8-5 Rev. 0
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-- - sme s ps usem sne ew on wne veugn enc Application Traffic cone, and tubular marker.* of vanoun configurabons are avail.
able. These 3 hall be a mimmum of 13 mehen m height with a broadened base ami may he made of various materiak to withstand irnpact without damage to them.selves or to vehicle. Larger size conos should be used on freewayn and other roadways where speeds are relatively high or wherever more conspicuous guidance is needed. Orange .< hall be the pre <lominant color. on cones. They should be kept clean and bright for maximum target value. For nighttime use they shall be redectonzed or equipped with lighting devices for maximdm visibility. Redectorized material shall have a smooth, scaled outer surface which will display the same approximate color day and night. inchNnds placed a maximum of 2" from the top with a maximum . between thegnds. Redectorization of cones shall be provided by a minimum 6", band placed a maximum of 3" from the top. 6C-4 Cone Application included under this heading are a group of devices whose primary function is the channelization of tn.ffic. They may be conical in shape, but there are also tubular shaped devices available capable of perfonn. ing the same function.They may be set on the surface of the roadway , or rigidly attached for continued use. Traffic cones may be easily stacked on a truck and one workman can carry and distribute several cones with ease. This mobility and dexibil. ity twhich cannot be equalled by Type I barricades) increases the useful.,
- ness of these devices. '. . .
When cones are used, precautions are'necessary to assstre they will - not be blowti over or displaced. This may be particularly critical adja. cent to lanes of moving traffle where there may be a wind created by
~
passing vehicle . Some cones are constructed with bases that may be Giled with ballast. With others it may be necessary to double the cones or use heavier weighted cones, special weighted bases, or weights such as sand bar :ings that can be dropped over the cones and onto the base to provide increased stability.These added weights should not be suffi. cient to present a hazard if the devices are inadvertently struck. In general, traffle cones have a greater target value than do the i tubular shaped devices. However, the target value of either device may be enhanced during the day time by tiu insertion of an orange flag in the top ami at night, by reflectorization or the use of lighting devices. o 1 G g Rev. 0
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e o They are more portable o They will be needed only for a relatively short period of time (hours) while drums are generally used at a site over a period of days or weeks i o They are less costly and consume less storage space
. o They take up less room on the highway, allowing the vehicles more room to maneuver.
1
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*It is also permissable to indicate the cause for a restricted i
movement. For example, the sign AREA CLOSED - RADIATION may be - I used if it is believed that improved compliance will result. One or more arrows indicating the direction of the diversion routes I are also advisable. 8-10 Rev. O END __..____.___-____-_.m. _ . _ _ _ _ - . _ _ _a
l l 4
- 9. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR GENERAL POPULATION This section presents the current results of the computer analyses using the IDYNEV System. These results cover:
]
o 12 evacuation scenarios as described in Table 9-1. o 24 regions within the Pilgrim Station EPZ, as defined in ] Table 9-2. Each region consists of one or =0re Emergency Response Planning Areas (Subareas). These Subareas were shown on Figure 5-1; the communities comprising each Subarea are listed in Table 9-3. These ETE for each Region-Scenario combination, are presented in Tables 9-4 through 9-9.
)
o Table 9-4 presents the ETE for the area within a circle I with a radius of two miles centered at Pilgrim Station. o Table 9-5 presents the ETE for the area within a circle with a radius of five miles centered at Pilgrim Station. o Table 9-6 presents the ETE for the area within a circle with a radius of ten miles centered at Pilgrim Station. . l o Table . 9-7 presents the ETE for the entire Emergency { Planning Zone (EPZ). of Pilgrim Station. . ! l o Table 9-8 presents the ETE for th's regions recommended to evacuate. For example, if it is determined that everyone within 5 miles of the Station should evacuate, then all com:hunities within Region 7 (Subareas 1, 2, 3, 4, 12) will be recommended to evacuate. The ETE of interest, then, are those which apply to evacuees who begin their trips from within 5 miles of the Station. Additional travel time from the regional boundary to the EPZ boundary is somewhat of I academic interest since the evacuees are then outside the l specified area of potential risk. Thus Table 9-8 presents l the ETE which are of primary importance within the context of emergency planning. o Table 9-9 presents the ETE for Scenarios lA and 2A. The values of ETE are obtained by interpolating from IDYNEV output, which .re generated at 30-minute intervals, then rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. Thus, the numerical precision of these values is within 110 minutes. Recently, software was developed to perform this interpolation, providing somewhat more accurate estimates. Again we emphasize that all ETE are referenged to the Evacuation Recommendation. 9-1 Rev. 0
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Table 9-2. Regional Evacuation Groupings, Evacuation Reaions Wind Direction Reaion Erom Extent Keyhole Subareas
. 1 Any To EPZ Boundary -
1 - 12 2 SSW-SSE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,4,9,10,12 3 SSE-ESE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 4 ESE-ENE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 5 ENE-NNE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,5,6,7,8,11,12 6 NNE-NNW To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,5,12 7 Any To 5 Miles - 1,2,3,4,12 8 SSW-SSE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,4,12 9 SSE-ESE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,3,4,12 10 ESE-ENE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,3,12 11 ENE-NNE To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,2,3,12 12 NNE-NNW To 5 Miles 2-mile 1,2,12 13 SSW-SSE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,9,10,12 14 SSE-ESE To EPZ Boundary' 5-mile 1,2,3,4,7,8,9,10,12 15 ESE-ENE To EPZ. Boundary ~5-mile 1, 2 , 3 , 4 , 6., 7 , 8 , 9 ,10 ,
. 11,12 .
.16 ENE-NNE To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,6;7,8,11, 12 17 NNE-NNW To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,12 l 18 Any To 2 Miles - 1,12 Regions 19 through 24 correspond to specific subarea groups required for Protective Action Recommendations.
19 NE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,5,6,11,12 20 ENE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,2,3,6,7,8,11,12 21 E To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,6,7,8,11,12 22 ESE To EPZ Boundary 2-mile 1,3,4,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 23 NE N To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,5,6,11,12 24 ENE. To EPZ Boundary 5-mile 1,2,3,4,6,7,8,11,12 4 9-3 Rev. 0 L___m.______.___ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Table 9-3. Description of the Emergency Response Planning Subareas of the Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station (PNPS) Subarea Description Towns 1 Includes the area within two miles of Plymouth the PNPS. 2 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subarea 1 to approximately the 5 miles south of the PNPS. . 3 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subareas 1 and 2 to approximately the 5 miles
. west of the PNPS.
1 4 Includes that portion on Duxbury Beach, Plymouth , i Saquish Neck and Clarke Island which lies Duxbury south of the Powder Point Bridge. ! 5 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundary of Subarea 2 south to the EPZ boundary. l 6 Includes the area within a portion of an Plymouth annular ring extending from the boundaries of ? Subareas 3 and 5 west to the Plymouth-Carver town line and north to Route 44. 7 Includes that portion of the Town of Plymouth Plymouth south of the Plymouth-Kingston town line, i north of Route 44 and extending from the coastline west to the Plymouth-Carver town line. 8 Includes the area comprising the Town of Kingston Kingston. 9 Includes the area comprising the Town of Duxbury Duxbury. , l 10 includes s that portion of the Town of Marshfield Marshfield which is south of Route 139. 11 Includes the area comprising the Town of Carver Carver East of Route 58 12 Includes the area of Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury, Massachusetts and Cape Cod Bays east.to approximately 10 miles from the PNPS. I 9-4 Rev. 0 l l l
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l Table 9-9. Evacuation Time Estimates for Scenarios lA.and 2A: Summer, Weekend, Evening Elapsed Time (Hrs.: Min.) from the Recommendation - to Evacuate needed to clear the indicated areas: ! Scenario 2 Miles 5 Miles 10 Miles Entire EPZ W
~
1A 3:35 4:40 4:45 . SiO5 )' Clear Weather , 2A 3:55 6:15 6:20 6:20 Rain l l l l Note: Weekend, evening traffic flow along Route 3 is at peak hour volumes with 80 percent of the peak hour flow moving northbound. , i 1 1 1 1
\
I 9-15 Rev. O
The issue of voluntary evacuation must be addressed when the evacuation recommendation is issued to regions which comprise an area less than the entire EPZ. Voluntary evacuees are defined as those people who live within the EPZ in subareas for which an evacuation recommendation has not been issued who, nevertheless, choose to evacuate spontaneously. People who have been asked to evacuate may be delayed in leaving the area at risk due to the presence of voluntary evacuees on evacuation routes. The ETE for Pilgrim Station addressed the issue of voluntary evacuees in. the manner shown in Figure 9-1. Within the annular , ring defined by the furthest extent of the evacuation l recommendation, 50 percent of those people in subareas not advised to evacuate wil do so. In the annular ring beginning at the furthest extent of the evacuation recommendations, 25 percent of the people will evacuate spontaneously. Discussion of ETE
.A total of 242 cases have been analyzed --
each case represents a possible evacuation protective action: o If an accident escalates beyond the Alert stage, and it is determined that evacuation is advisable, the protective action will specify the region'to be evacuated. There are a total of 18 regions. Associated with each region are one
. or more Subarea (See ' Table 9-2) ; the communities within each. Subarea'are listed.in Table 9-3. .
o The protective action could occur within the context of any one of 12 evacuation scenarios; these are defined in Table 9-1. These data are presented in a concise tabular format in Tables 9-4 through 9-9. Each entry in these tables is the value of ETE for the indicated circumstance a (i.e. Scenario), protective action (i.e. Region recommended to evacuate), and radius of the circular area centered at Pilgrim Station. For example, it is estimated that the entire population within 5 miles of Pilgrim Station can evacuate that circular area (of 5-mile radius centered at the Station] within 4 hours and 20 minutes, under Scenario 1 conditions, when the entire populace within the EPZ (Region 1) 'is recommended to evacuate (see Table 9-5). The use of these tables is best illustrated through the medium of illustrative examples. 9-16 Rev. 0 '- i _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . . _ _ . . _ . _ . . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ - _ _ _ _
- ll 10 Mile 5 Mile i i 2 Mile gjjjjjjjjjj j i
Legend F Area to be Evacuated I 50 of Popula on Voluntary Evacuation up to 25% of Population Figure 9-1. Voluntary Evacuation Rates
Examole 1 Consider an accident situation on a summer weekend day (Scenario 1). Based on meteorological and on-site data, a release is projected while wind direction is from the west.2 The protective action is to evacuate Region 18 (see Table 9-2). In arriving at this decision, the ETE for evacuating the two-mile area, for Region 18 and Scenario 1, is referenced in Table
. 9-4 and is found to be 3:35._ (Table 9-8 yields the same value).
This ETE is referenced to the issuance of the recommendation to evacuate which, in turn, is assumed to follow the initiation of , notification by 10 minutes. For this ' case, Table 9-6 yields an ETE of 3:45 for evacuating the populace from within Region 18, to points further than 10 miles from Pilgrim Station. Thus, it takes about 10 minutes to travel the distance of about 8 miles. Since only the area within 2 miles of Pilgrim Station has been judged to be subject to potential exposure to radiation under the conditions of this example (i.e. only Region 18 is evacuated) the additional time to clear the 10-mile area is somewhat of academic interest. That is, travelers who are outside the 2-mile areas are not subject to potential exposure to radiation. Note that the population clearing the 10-mile area *is assumed to include 25 ~
, percent of' the population in the area outside Region 18, but inside the EPZ. This 25 percent represents -those who are assumed to spontaneously evacuate contrary to EBS messages.
Examele 2 Consider an accident situation on a dry, mid-week day in late , Autumn (Scenario 5) in early afternoon. A release is projected which will travel southward. The protective action is to evacuate Region 6 (see Table 9-2). In arriving at this decision, the ETE for evacuating Region 6 in Scenario 5 is referenced in Table 9-7 (or Table 9-8) and is found to be 4:35. The ETE for areas closer to the Station are (from Tables 9-4 through 9-7): Distance (miles) from Pilarim Station EIE 2 4:25 5 4:25 10 4:30 "EPZ Boundary 4:35 . It would appear that it takes zero time to travel from 2 miles to 5 miles, a distance of 3 miles. This apparent anomoly reflects I the interpolation procedures used to obtain these ETE, and the 9-18 Rev. 0
subsequent rounding to the nearest 5 minutes. As a result, our tabulation of ETE does not distinguish small differences of a few minutes needed to travel the distance of several miles. Understand that towards. the conclusion of the evacuation, the speed of vehicles remaining in the EPZ are not constrained by the presence of other vehicles. Evacuees who begin their trips late in the process may be able to complete their evacuation at free flow speed. Hence, less than five minutes would be required to travel
, the 3 miles cited.
Sensitivity Tests As discussed earlier, a Plannina Basis was adopted for calculating the ETE. It is important to explore the effects, on ETE, of variations about this basis. This discussion presents the results of such analyses. Slower Rates of Accident Escalation As the period of time between the General Emergency declaration (siren activation) and the Recommendation to Evacuate increases, more people are afforded the opportunity to be ready to evacuate when the recommendation is issued. Consequently, it is expected that the ETE (measured -from the Recommendation tc Evacuate) will lessen as the elapsed time between the General Emergency declaration and the Evacuation Recommendation' increases. A series of sensitivity tests was performed to quantify these effects. Specifically, the trip generat' ion distributions were modified as follows: o Twenty-five percent of the population who are ready to evacuate prior to the Recommendation to Evacuate would evacuate prior to the issuance of the Evacuation Recommendation. o The remaining 75 percent will prepara for evacuation, as determined for the Planning Basis, but will await the Recommendation to Evacuate before commencing the evacuation trip. A total of three rates of accident escalation, in addition to that of the Planning Basis, were studied for the case represented by scenario 1 (summer weekend) and Region 1 (entire EPZ recommended to evacuate). Associated with these escalation rates are varying elapsed times between the Declaration of a General Emergency and the Recommendation to Evacuate, as follows: o Ten minutes (see Chapter 4 for a discussion of the. Planning Basis) o One Hour and Ten Minutes o Two Hours and Ten Minutes 9-19 Rev. 0
o Three Hours and Ten Minutes The following table presents the results generated by the IDYNEV model. Elapsed Time from the Declaration of ETE for Evacuation from Within the a General Emergency Indicated Areas around the Pilgrim to the Evacuation Station, Referanced from the j Recommendation _, Evacuation Recommendation 2 miles 5 miles 10 miles EPZ 0:10 (Planning Basis) 3:35 4:20 4:35 4:40 1:10 2:35 3:40 3:45 3:45 2:10 1:40 3:15 3:20 3:25 3:10 1:40 3:10 3:15 3:15 As indicated, the longer the elapsed time between the General Emergency Level and the Evacuation Recommendation, the lower the associated ETE. This sensitivity is pronounced: there is roughly one minute of reduction in ETE for every minute of increase in the elapsed time, over the first two hours. The rate of' decrease in ETE falls off after the elapsed time between the General Emergency announcement and the Evacuation Recommendation exceeds about two hours. , , , As the elapsed time increases to about 3:10, the ETE settles down to approximately 3:15. By this time all evacuees are ready to depart and 25 percent of them have already evacuated.
~
Effects of Traffic Accidents Since traffic accidents
- are " rare events", an analysis of their impact on a specific event -- emergency evacuation -- is prone to subjective judgment. The domain of postulated events is unbounded; that is, one can always postulate the occurrence of any combination and type of events witn the argument that the postulate is "possible".
Even an analysis based on aggregate empirical statistics is subject to criticism on the basis that the process of evacuation during a radiol emergency is "different" than ordinary traffic operatio,ogical ns. On one hand, it can be argued that the l heightened state of motorist anxiety during evacuation could i promote unsafe driving. activities. On E other hand, it could be
*For this purpose, we extend the concept of " accident" to include any event which can block, either completely or partially, a lane of traffic, for some interval of time.
9-20 Rev. O
argued that the low travel speeds characteristic of the expected congested conditions precludes the prospect of serious accidents and that a state of motorist anxiety translates into increased attentiveness. While the available data does not support the thesis that traffic operations during an evacuation- differs materially from that during normal congested conditions, it is not our intent to address these behavioral issues here. Rather, we will apply a
" reasonable" approach to estimating the number of accidents that could occur during an evacuation, and then utilize the simulation l tool to calculate their impact on evacuation time. I Referencing the 1987 Edition of " Accident Facts" published by the National Safety Council yields the following statistics Number of Vehicle-Miles 1,861 Billion 4
Number of Accidents: Property Damage 16,500,000 Injury 1,250,000 Fatal 42,300 Total 17,792,300 Consequently,.an overall accident rate may be estimated: one accident per'105,000 vehicle-miles. , Evacuation of the entire population of the EPZ during a summer, weekend, midday scenario (Region 1, Scenario 1) will generate approximately 515,000 vehicle miles within the EPZ. By multiplying this figure by the above rates, the expected number of accidents during evacuation may be estimated: Expected number of accidents = 5 The procedure used t'o determine the impact of the five expected accidents was as follows:
- 1. Randomly assign these accidents to different roadway sections on the evacuation network, subject to the condition that these roadway sections are heavily travelled.
- 2. The time of initiation of these incidents was fixed at about one hour after the beaches begin clearing. It was further asserted that three of the blockages prevailed for
- two hours and two of the blockages prevailed for one hour. 9-21 Rev. 0
- 3. If the' roadway section consisted of one lane of travel, then capacity for that lane would be reduced by 50 percent, based on the premise that evacuation vehicles would bypass the blockage by travelling on the shoulder or encroaching into the opposing-lane. If the roadway section. consisted of two or more lanes, then it was assumed that one lane was removed from service during the blockage period.
This procedure was replicated a total of five times. Each. replication utilized a different set of links for the placement of blockages. Results of these studies indicated that the presence of thess' incidents might increase the ETE by between 5 and 20 ' minutes. careful examination of the computer output revealed that the roadway blockage did, in fact, impede traffic. These impedances, however,,were in some cases less than the impedances produced downstream of the accidents, by the heavy congestion (i.e., excess of demand relative to available capacity) . Consequently, while the presence _of road blockage affected the spatial location of delay within evacuation network, as well as the details of the temporal distribution of delay at those locations influenced by these transient accidants, the overall effect, relative to the base condition of no accidents, was not significant. . As discussed at the beginning of this section, it is always, possible to postulate roadway blockages " strategically" ,so. as to - guarantee an impact on evacuation travel. Such an approach might be useful, in our view, as part of an evacuation exercise', to test the response of personnel to such an unscheduled event. Our study, however, had the objective of assessing exeected events and their impact; such an objective mandates the application of random events,.as described above. On the basis of this study, it i::an be concluded that a limited I number of transient blockages randomly dispersed in time and space, will probably have little, if any, impact on evacuation travel time. Effects of Varvina Snowfall Intensity Levelg Weather is one of the many major factors which influence hf,ghway capacitys Each type of influencing weather condition is , addressed separately w'ithin the ETE. Highway capacity reductions l of 20 and 25 percent for rain and snow respectively were utilized ! in the ETE. These figures are responsive to the guidelines established by the 1985 Highway C&pacity Manual. ] A contention has been voi'ced that the winter snow scenarios presented in the ETE does not represent " severe winter storms" conditions. .Using data presented in the National Cooperative l Rev. 0 9-22 ) _.___.m
l Highway Research Program Report 127, it is possible to estimate the meteorological conditions which would
- cause a 25 percent reduction in highway capacity. Figure 9-2 presents the relationships between snowfall intenity, asymptotic free flow speed factor and highway capacity factor. The underlying assumption used to develop this graph is that the indicated rate of snowfall extends over at least five hours and that no snowplowing occurs during the snowfall. As indicated, a 25 percent reduction in capacity corresponds to a snowfall of one inch per hour over a period of at least five hours. ,
Two sensitivity tests were conducted with the off-season, midweek, midday, snow scenario for the evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region 1, Scenario 7). . Using Figure 9-2, a " light" snowfall condition was defined (0.5 inches per hour over five hours) which implies a capacity factor of 81 percent and a " heavy" snowfall condition was defined (two inches per hour over five hours) yielding a capacity factor of 69 percent. The results of these tests are shown below: Snowfall Capacity Evacuation Time .. Intensity Factor Estimate for the Entire EPZ 0.5 81% 5:55 1.0 75% 5:55 (Planning Basis) 2.0 69% 6:25 Doubling of the snowfall intensity relative to the Planning Basis causes an increase in traffic congestion due to reduced roadway capacity which causes a 30 minute increase in ETE. It is important to note that one can postulate a snowfall intensity and other environmental conditions which make evacuation difficult. However, under those conditions it is likely that sheltering, not evacuation is the preferred protective action. Effects of Varvina Canacity Factors Traffic engineers have known for some time that under congested traffia flow conditions, the vehicular service volume may be less than capacity. Empirical studies on freeways have indicated that the service volume under congested conditions ranges from 75 to 100 percent of the freeway capacity operating in , undersaturated conditions. We have adopted a value of' 85 percent as part of the Planning Basis. (Note: in NUREG/CR-4873, a study was conducted at a single site which yielded the conclusion that no reduction in capacity was experienced there.) 9-23 Rev. 0 e
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A songitivity study wcs conductzd to acceco the sensitivity I of the ETE to a range of capacity factors. The study was conducted l utilizing Region 1, Scenario 1 data. The results are shown below: { Capacity ETE for the Factor Entire EPZ I 95% 4:35 85% , 4:40 75% 5:10 Effects of Late Mannino of Traffic and Access Control Poin11 A sensitivity study was performed to determine the effects of delays in manning traffic and access control points upon the ETE. The s,tudy utilized Region 1, Scenario 1 as a basis. Current planning assumptions call for the implementation of access control and diversion along Route 3 in Norwell and Sagamore
, starting at the Site Area Emergency Classification. Traffic control measures are implemented when the Evacuation Recommendation is issued. The following scenarios were studied:
Base. Case - Route 3 access control is initiated at the Site
* ' Area Emergen~cy ' Classification. EPZ Traffiq Control is initiated at the issuance of the Evacuation Recommendation.
- Case 1 - Route 3 access control is initiated as scheduled.
EPZ Traffic Control is initiated 35 minutes after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued.. Case 2 - Route 3 access control is delayed by 1 hour and it is initiated 35 minutes after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued. EPZ Traffic Control is initiated 35 minutes after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued.. The following ETEs were noted: Base Case case 1 Case 2 4:40 4:45 5:20
+
The absence of traffic control within the EPZ for the first 35 minutes of evacuation causes little effect on the overall ETE. A more pronounced effect is evident if traffic is not diverted from Route 3 in a timely manner. Note that EPZ Traffic Control is not assumed to increase traffic capacity; the absence of traffic control will result in less efficient routing by evacuees. 9-25 Rev. O
E22ects of Commuter Traffic A number of concerns have been raised about the treatment of commuter traffic in the development of the ETE. The effects of commuter trafffe may be felt in two areas: estimates of highway capacity, and the development of trip generation times. I Estimates of highway capacity on two-lane, two-way roads depends, to an extent, upon the directional' split of traffic'on the i road. As a planning basis, thin ETE assumes that, over the course of the evacuation, about 90 percent of traffic will be moving in the outbound direction. During the first 1.5 hours of the evacuation, when 85 percent of homebound commuters have arrived home, the directional split may be different than this value, thus affecting the capacity of evacuation routes. It has further been noted that commuters returning home to prepare for evacuation may experience traffic congestion which lengthens their work-to-home travel time. Should such congestion occur, then the evacuation trip generation process would lengthen for families with commuters. It is, therefore, prudent to investigate these effects. The case chosen to study the effects of commuter traffic was Region 1, Scenario 3 (Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather) , a scenario which combines full employment with a large number of transients
- in its population mix. The.following assumptions were made:
- 1. Due t o ' c o n g e s t i o n ,' h o m e - t o - w o r k travel time for the portion of the commuter trip which is within the ~ EPZ would double. Travel times for the portion of the ,
commuter trip which takes place outside the EPZ doss not I change. Once the public has been notified of an ! emergency, persons can be expected to defer discretionary trips to areas within the EPZ. Thus returning commuters l may find these roads less heavily traveled and their travel times (for this portion of the trip) unaffected. This assumption was used to modify the distribution of Time to Travel Home (Distribution 3) in Section 3. The
' procedures in Section 3 were applied to generate a revised Distribution F describing the trip generation characteristics of permanent resident households including commuters who experience delay. The revised Distribution F increased the trip generation time for this population group by 15 minutes', from 4:10 to 4:25.
- 2. The directional split of traffic on two-lane, two-way
, roads will vary with time. At the start of evacurtion, a significant volume of inbound traffic representing returning commuters can be expected. Based on the distribution . of Section 4, it is estimated that the
' directional splits of traffic (i.e. the ratio of outbound 9-26 Rev. 0
i evacuating vehicles, to inbound commuters) over time, are as follows: Percent of Outbound Roadway Capacity, Directional Split Duration Relative to Planning Outbound / Inbound (Minutes) Basis (90/10 solit) i 45/55 30 65 55/45 30 79 68/32 30 91 83/17 30 98 98/2 Thereafter 104 These capacity reductions were applied to the following major commuting routes: Route 139, Route 14, Route 44, Route 3A North, Route 3A South, Route 58, Route 53, Route 27, Route 106, Route 80, 1 and Tremont Road in Carver, where traffic control is not specified. Where traffic control is specified, capacity is determined by the j allocation of service time to competing traffic flows. The effects of directional split at these locations is explicitly considered in the allocation of service times. The results of this sensitivity analysis indicate that, under the indicated conditions, the ETE is unchange.d when the effects of commuters on roadway capacity are considered explicitly. The relative insensitivity of the Planning Basis ETE is I consistent with traffic theory. The increase in trip generation time from 4 :10 to 4:25 is significantly less than the Planning Basis ETE of 5:05. Hence, the ETE is more dependent on the ~ capacity constraint of the roadway system than on trip generation time. See NUREG/CR-4874 for a fuller description. The reduction in capacity during the initial 1.5 hours of evacuation is partially offset by the effects of the lengthened trip generation time. Since commuters are delayed in returning home, there~is a delay in the start of the evacuation trip for families with commuters. During the 1.5 hours when capacity is affected by the different directional split, 9 percent fewer evacuation trips are begun by l families with commuters. Thus, to some extent, the reductions in i capacity during this period is offset by reduced vehicular demand. The not effect, as shown is nill. This sensitivity test demonstrates that a more refined treatment of commuter flow is not warranted; the effect on ETE falls well within the computational uncertainties associated with any planning analysis of this type. Patterns of Traffic Concestion durina Evacuation (Recion 1.
- Scenario 1) .
Figures 9-3 a) through 9-3 e) illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion which arise for the case when the entire EPZ is 9-27 Rev. 0
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recommended to svacuato (Rcgion 1) on a summer weekend day at the time when the beach area population is at capacity (Scenario 1). Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service F. These terms are defined in the 1985 Highway Capacity Manual, as follows: l o Level-of-service F is used to define forced or breakdown flow. This condition exists wherever the amount of traffic approaching a point exceeds the amount which can traverse the point. Queues form behind such locations.- operations within the queue are characterized by stop-and-go waves, ~ and they are extremely unstable. Vehicles may progress at reasonable speeds for several hundred feet or more, then be required to stop in a cyclic fashion. Level-of-Service F is used to describe the operating conditions within the queue, as well as the point of the breakdown. It should be noted, however, that in many cases operating conditions of vehicles or pedestrians distharged from the queue may be quite good. Nevertheless, it is the point at which arrival flow exceeds discharge flow which causes the queue to form, and level-of-service F is an appropriate designation for such points. , This definition is general and conceptual in nature, and l applies primarily to.. uninterrupted flow.
. Levels of service for interrupted flow facilities vary widely in terms of both the user's perception of service quality and the operational variables used to describe them.
All highway " links" which experience Level of Service F are I delineated in the Figures by a thick dark line; all others are lightly indicated. l Beaches were ordered closed at the Alert Level, or 25 minutes earlier than the issuance of the Evacuation Recommendation. By 0:35 after the Evacuation Recommendation congestion is present on roads departing most beaches, tourist sites and parks. Peak traffic congestion is present between one and two hours i after the Evacuation Recommendation is issued. 1 By 2:35 levels of congestion at some locations have begun to dissipate, most notably in Carver and Plymouth. Northbound Route 3 shows congestion north of Route 44. Congestion on roads leading from the Whitehorse Beach area have eased, although Route 3A is still heavily utilized. By 3:35 most of the congestion in western Plymouth, Kingston and Duxbury has cleared. There remains some local congestion in downtown Plymouth. However, by 4:05 this locul congestion has effectively cleared. By 4:05 most of the remaining congestion is 9-33 Rev. 0
^
at the periphery of the EPZ, with some congestion along northbound Route 3. By 4:40 the area has been cleared. Patterns of Traffic Concestion durina Evacuation (Recion 1, scenario 5) , Figures 9-4a) through 9-4d) present the patterns of traffic congestion which arise for the case when the entira EPZ is issued an Evacuation Recommendation (Region 1) during the off-season, midweek, midday period (Scenario 5) . As before, highway " links" exhibiting Level of Service F are delineated by a thick, dark line. The characteristics of Scenario 5 are: peak employment in the EPZ, and 25 percent of peak tourists with no beach area transients. As a consequence, congestion which is apparent at beach areas (Marshfield, Duxbury, Manomat Area) in Scenario 1 (see Figures 9-3a,b) is not present in Scenario 5. i Patterns of congestion associated with the general population I and employees are apparent in Scenario 5. By 2 hours after the Evacuation Recommendation congestion has peaked in Plymouth and Carver. Route 3 is congested northbound through Duxbury. Note that tourists and beach goers are able to respond to an' Evacuation Recommendation faster than the general population (see Section 4}. Therefore, the onset of congestion occurs earlier in Scenario 1 I than in Scenario 5. , , Congestion effectively clears within the EPZ by about 4:00 . and the area is cleared #of evacuees by 4:35. It is possible to identify the extent to which congestion affects evacuation time by comparing Scenarios 1 and 5: i Elapsed Time to Evacuation Start of Last Time Vehicle Trin Estimate i Region 1, Scenario 1 3:30 4:40 Region 1, Scenario 5 4:10 4:35 ) Note that more than a full hour elapses between the time the last vehicle in Scenario 1 begins its trip and the time the last vehicle leaves the EPZ. Ef no congestion were present, this vehicle would require about 20 minutes (12 miles at 40 mph) to traverse the EPZ. The last vehicle in Scenario 5 requires just 25 minutes to complete its trip. Consequently, the extent and intensity of-congestion present in Scenario 1 causes the ETE to increase by some 50 minutes. In Scenario 5, the start of the last evacuation trip occurs after most of traffic congestion has dissipated. 9-34 Rev. 0 e
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Evacuation Rates Traffic flow is_a continuous process, as implied by Figures 9-3 and 9-4. Another format for displaying the dynamics of the evacuation procedure is depicted in Figures 9-Sa through 9-5j. These plots indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for each Scenario associated with the evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region 1). As indicated in these Figures, there is typically a long
" tail" to these distributions. Vehicles evacuate an area slowly at the beginning, as people respond to the ' recommendation to evacuate at different rates, then builds rapidly (slopes of curves -
increase). When the system becomes congested, traffic flows at (near] capacity rates until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. . Towards the end of the process, one or l two evacuation routes service the remaining demand. l l This decline in aggregate flow rate, with time, is characterized by these curves gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, al.1 curves would remain steep until the end . -- thus minimizing evacuation time. In the real world, this ideal is generally unattainable. ' Proper planning, however, can make an important. difference,in-the utilization of exist'ing. highway' capacity and in reducing evacuation time to a, practical minimum.' - - Summary of Evacuation Time Analysis A summary of evacuation timet is presented in Tables 9-10, in the format recommended in Appendix 4 of NUREG 0654. The analyses of Confirmation Time and of the ETE for Special Population segments are presented in Sections 11 and 12, respectively. The estimates of Permanent Resident and Vehicle Population are those of Table 2-1. These town estimates were aggregated to form Subarea estimates and then Region estimates. The transient population includes all transients -- tourists, beach area day-trippers and employees who live outside the EPZ. These estimates were presented in Section 2. s Evacuay. ion capacity from each area was ascertained by . aggregating the highway capacities of all outward-bound roads which I pierce the area's outer boundary. The capacities given represent clear weather conditions. These capacities are reduced by 20 percent for rain and 25 percent for snow. It,is assumed that all roads are passable and that the recommended traffic control tactics are in effect (see Appendix I). 9-39 Rev. 0
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It is important to stress that'theso estimatos of ayL.lable capacity may overstate the actual aqcessible cap; ty. Specifically, network topological features may restrict access to all outbound roads. For example, capacity restriction of entry ramps may limit the effective use of parts of Route 3. The estimated notification, preparation and response (i.e. trip-generation) times which are listed correspond to the 100th percentile of the indicated population. That is, these are the times associated with the comoletion of the indicated process. The process itself (i.e. notification, preparation to evacuate, and i departing on the evacuation trip) is best represented as a continuous distribution (see Figure 4-2) which graphically depicts - the continuous nature of the process. The Evacuation Time Estimated (ETE) are those presented in Table 9-8. In Tables 9-10, the population figures (first 4 columns) are those associated with the indicated Recions (see Table 9-2); the capacities and ETE figures are for the indicat e d distances: 2,5,10 miles from the Pilgrim Station. A i s 9-50 Rev. 0 4 _-_-----.___-_________--_-___---.--_-__-_-_.__-_w
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> m e am O C00000 000000u000Q Zu OV
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=>
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=> m vc e
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e e m O e N me p 4 = in m P .=
- O e ee e' vt h= -
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*= 0 as e e.e.N ee.= e 0 .e m # n N m t's enm 4 >=
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. ww .* *= en e P= m x J> >
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E g 44 me dO 5 ha E AJ W w at . eetoeee
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4 == 24.
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- 10. EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE) FOR TRANSIT OPERATIONS This secti6n details the analyses applied to obtain evacuation time estimates for persons who evacuate on transit vehicles. The procedure is:
o Estimate demand for transit service o Estimate time to perform all transit functions o Estimate route travel time o Develop ETE Demand for transit service reflects the needs of different "specisl population" groups:
- 1. Residents and transients with no vehicles available
- 2. Special facilities: schools., health-support, child-care, other
- 3. Private citizens (i.e. those not in health-support facilities) who have special medical needs and cannot drive themselves.
Each of these groups will be considered in turn. Residents and Transients With No Vehicles Available The demand estimates'1'or these three groups were developed-using a number of techniques. Surveys of schools and special facilities yielded demand data for item 2. A "Special Needs Survey *" to determine the number of people who need rides was - conducted by Boston Edison in 1967 to develop estimates of items 1 and 3. The "Special Needs Survey" yielded the following data: Pecole Who Need Rides To'm Transit-deoendents Plymouth 123 Kingston 30 Carver 17 Duxbury 16 Marshfield _la, 224
*The "Special Needs Survey" was used as one source of information concerning the transportation needs of the general population. ,
It was Dot g used to estimate the needs of special (e.g. handicapped or home-bound) populations. - 10-1 Rev. 0
l Tha _telaphona_ survsy conducted in Autumn of 1986 (see Appendices F and G) acquired a data base which can be- used to estimate the population group of item 1. This group is divided-into two subgroups: . o Those persons who belong to households which do not have i a vehicle available. (This information corresponds to l the transit-dependents identified in the special needs l survey.) o Those persons who belong to households which normally.do have at least one vehicle available, but would not have a ! vehicle available at the time the evacuation is - l recommended. l The persons belonging to the latter subgroup are in I households where the vehicle (s) have been driven away from home 1 l for commuting purposes. These vehicles would not be available for evacuation if the driver (s) of the vehicle (s) refuse to return home to gather the household members. Other factors include the possibilities that the vehicle is non-functioning or that the commuter is willing, but unable, to return home. Tables 10-1 through 10-4, obtained from the telephone survey results, provide the empirical basis for quantifying those two l subgroups. These data were then multiplied by the sample factor (i.e. ratio of total. households within the EPZ, to the number of r randomly selected households sampled) to obtain the data for each community within the EPZ. Table 10-5 presents the summary of this data. There are several factors which influence the accuracy of these estimates of persons with no vehicle available in Tablo 10-5: l 1. These estimates include school children. On school days, separate transportation is provided for the children in school and the actual need for transit is thereby less than the given estimates.
- 2. These estimates do not take into account the effects of ride-sharing with family, friends and neighbors who do i have vehicles available. To the extent that l
ride-shgring is undertaken, the actual need for transit is less than the given estimates.
- 3. These estimates do take into account the prospect that vehicles may not be available due to malfunction.
10-2 Rev. 0 e 4
Tablo 10-1. Numbar of Cars por Household by Household Sizo Plymouth Persons per Number of Cars Der Household Household 0 1 2 3 4 Total 1 6 31 4 1 0 42 2 1 43 62 3 2 111 3 0 11 39 17 3 70 4 0 5 29 8 1 43 ) 5 1 9 38 9 S 62 6 0 3 18 1 3 25 7 0 1 5 0 4 10 j j 8 0 1 0 1 1 3 9 0 0 1 0 0 1 10 O .. 0 0 0 'l _1 Total . 8 104 196 40 20 368 households ' Mean Persons per Household 1.6 2.4 3.6 3.72 5.3 3.31 l l s 10-3 Rev. 0
Tablo 10-2. Number of Cars par Household by Household Size l Kinaston Persons per Number of Cars Der Household Household 0 1 2 3 4 Total I 1 1 6 0' O O 7 2 0 7- 14 2 1 24 3 0 2 6 1 0 9 4 0 1- 9 5 0 15 5 0 3 3 '5 2 13 6 0 0 4 1 0 5 7 0 0 0 0 1 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 l'O ,0 0 [ 0
'O .b ,
_q - Total 1 19 36 14 '4 74 households Mean Persons per Household 1.0 2.4 3.4 4.1 4.8 3.3
\
10-4 Rev. 0
Table 10-3. Number of. Cars par Household by. Household size Carver Persons per i Number of Cars eer Household Household 0 1 2 3 4 Total 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 8 5 0 0 13
~
3 0 1 4 3- 0 8 4 0 0 8 1 0 9 5 0 0 4 2 1 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 0 .0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 'O O J Total d 9 21 6 1 3"i households Mean Persons per Household - 2.1 3.5 3.8 5.0 3.27 1 l
\
10-5 Rev. O L_--__-_-_------_ - - - - - - - ---- - _- --
Table 10-4. Number of Caro por Household by' Household size Duxbury - Persons per Number of Cars cer Household Household 0 1 2 3 4 Total 1 0 13 4 0 0 17 2 0 3 19 3 3 28 3 0 3 15 6 1 25 4 0 4 15 2 2 23 5 0 0 9 5 1 15 6 0 0 4 3 0 7 7 0 0 1 0 1 .2 8 0 0 1 0 1 2 9 0 - 0 0 1 0 1 l'O ~0 0 0 0 0 _Q, Total 0 23 68 20 9 120 households i Mean Persons , per Household - 1.9 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.30 l t 10-6 Rev. 0
Table 10-5. Estimates of Ambulatory Persons Rnquiring Transit Who Do Not Reside in Special Facilities Person.s in Households with Non- One, Non
. Sample No Vehs. Returnees Functioning Total Communi:V Factor Available (1) Vehicle (2) Persons l
Plymouth 35.01 455 692 91 1238
' ~
Kingston 32.42 32 134 16 - 182 Carver 49.26 0 101 10 111 Duxbury 35.43 0 238 17 255 Earshfield (3) 38 31 6 75 1861 Notes: (1) No information concerning the number of people who . would need transportation in the event a commuter could not return home in a timely fashion was available.- However, based upon results of a KLD
, survey performed within the Seabrook EPZ, a factor of 1.7 percent of population was used. It should l be noted that this factor was developed on the l basis of a question dealing with presumed behavior l during an emergency.
(2) Based on telephone surveys with fleet operators, it is estimated that a car is non-functioning approximately 4 days per year, on average. Thi's is equivalent to 1.1 percent of the time. Thus, the number of vehicles that are non-functioning, that belong to households with only one car normally available is computed as Proportion of Households with One Car X Total Number of Households X 0.011. For example, for Plymouth, (104/368) (40665/3.31) (0.011) = 38 X 2.4 = 91; where, avg. household size is s 3.31 persons and there are 2.4 persons per household with one vehicle. (3) KLD Telephone Survey values were not available for Marshfield. Population estimates presented are taken from Boston Edison's Special Needs Survey. 10-7 Rev. O
- 4. Sinco the number of surveyed persons in each town who require transit is small relative to the total sample, we are c'ontending with a problem of small sanple size when the data is considered at the community level.
That is, the confidence interval associated with these estimates is apt to be large. There is thus a statistical uncertainty associated with these estimates (as there is with g_qr estimates obtained using , statistical procedures) which should be prudently considered. It is possible to quantify these factors in a conservative manner, thus insuring that adequate transit resources will be available:
- 1. A reduction in estimated demand due to school children being evacuated by bus is justified only if the accident occurs during a school day. Since school is in session '
180 days in a year, for about 7 hours, the probability of an accident occurring when school is in session is approximately 180 x 7 365 x 24 = 0.144 or 14.4 percent. Consequently, since children will not be in school over 85 percent of the time, it is prudent to, assume that all . school ' children of transit-dependent families will be at home and will require transit. -
- 2. Ride-sharing does have a pronounced impact on estimating the need for transit. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga*, Ontario and who did not use their own cars, shared rides with neighbors and friends. Other documents also report that approximately 70 percent of transit-dependent persons would evacuate via ride-sharing.
We will adopt a lower figure of 50 percent to calculate the number of transit-dependent persons who will ride-share. The remaining 50 percent will need transit vehicles in order to evacuate. s
*"The Mississauga Evacuation - Final Report to the Ontario Ministry of the Solicitor General", Institute for Environmental Studies, Un'iversity of Toronto, June 1981.
10-8 Rev. 0
- 3. It in poaciblo to calculate the confidence interval for a stated level of confidence, a, by applying the binomial distribution. Specifically, the following expression applies:
p d = {(r+c) ((r+c)2 - (n+c) 2r /n]1/2) / (n+c) 2 where . p= Proportion of sampled number of households that have j no vehicles available j I d= Extent of confidence interval at level, a, in i percent j n= Sample size, households r= np, sample response indicating the number of persons, in the sample, who require transportation assistance
~
c= 1/2 Z2 a/2, obtained from tables. Ref: Crow, E.L., Davis, F.A. and Maxfield, , M . W. , Statistics Manual, Dover Publications, . Inc. , New York, 1960. , l
. 1 We will select a = 80 percent. From tables, the corresponding value of c is 0.822. This means:
There is an 80 percent probability that the true l proportion, p, of the underlying population from which the sample was drawn, lies between p-d/2 and p+d/2. This is equivalent to stating that there is a 90 percent ; probability that the true value of p does not exceed p+d/2. Table 10-6 lists the results. Column 1 is the sample size, n, in each community. The sample responses, r, the number of persons who do not have a vehicle available, are listed in column
- 2. The proportion, p, the quotient of column 2 by 1, appears in column 3. Column 4 contains the calculated values of (p+d/2).
The next colung 5, contains the number of persons within each community who require transportation assistance; these estimates have only a 10 percent probability of actually being exceeded. The calculation to obtain these estimates are outlined below: A. For communities where p>0, this estimate of persons needing assistance is calculated as: 10-9 Rev. 0 m
Table 10-6. Calculatsd Number of Parsons Rcquiring Transit (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) No. of Residents 4 With No: Car Requiring l Community. D r=ng g 7+d/2 Available Transit Plymouth 368 13 .035 .050 1768 884 Kingston 74 1 .014 .036 468 234 Cauv=& 37 0 .000 Note 1 209 104 , Duxbury 120 0 .000 Note 1 482 241 Marshfield - - - Note 2 107 54 l TOTALS 599 R .0233 .033 3034 1517 Note: (1) For Carver and Duxbury, the aggregate value .of j (p+d/2) was used. We multiplied (p+d/2) by the i number of households, then by [an assumed) 1.6 persons per household without vehicles, then added the last column of Table 10-5. For Carver: 0.033(6083/3.27)1.6 + 111 = 209. For Duxbury: 0.033(14199/3.3)l.6 + 255 = 482. (2) For Marshfield, we multiplied uhe number in the last column of Table 10-5, by the ratio 0.033/0.0233. t 10-10 Rev. 0
ET (p+d/2) P where E T is in the last column of Table 10-5. B. For Marshfield where Telephone Survey results were not available, then estimate of persons needing assistance is calculated as: E (o+d/2) p agg where E r is.obtained from the Special Needs Survey and presented in Table 10-5 and [...),,,is the aggregate values of column 4/ column 3 in Table 10-6. Column 6 contains the estimates of people requiring transportation assistance and who do ngt share a ride with friends or neighbors. These persons must be provided with transit. Bus Transit Concent of Ooerations Transit operations in support of an evacuation of the area surrounding Pilgrim Station are designed to be a mix of two approaches. First, a number of fixed, bus pickup points' will be identified. These point's, located in the more densely populated areas of the EPZ, will be locations within walking distance where people may find the required transit resources'. Secondly, for areas of the EPZ which are not as dansely populated, buses will traverse fixed routes, stopping on demand to pick up passengers. In support of these operations a number of bus staging areas / transfer points will be established at the periphery of the EP:: . At these locations buses will be designated one of two categories: o Pickuo Point Buses - After receiving instructions, maps, and dosimetry at bus staging areas, these buses will proceed to the assigned fixed bus pickup point. There, they wait for passengers to board, and, on schedule, or when full, proceed directly to Reception Centers. o Route Bulses - After receiving instructions, maps, and dosimetry at bus staging areas, these buses will traverse assigned routes in accordance with a predefined schedule. Individual bus routes will be traversed several times. At the conclusion of the traverse, buses will depart for Reception Centers. , 10-11 Rev. 0 4
Appendix 0 contains additional details of the Transit Operations plan including proposed bus staging area locations, bus pickup points, and route maps and descriptions. Table 10-7 presents the transit requirements for all communities, based on the estimates of Table 10-6, and on the number of bus staging areas. The number of persons serviced by each bus route and pickup point within a community may be estimated by dividing the total number of transit-dependent persons by the number of routes and pickup points. This estimate, however, assumes that people are uniformly distributed over a community, by area -- an assumption which will overestimate the actual demand for some areas and underestimate the actual demand for others. Since the overriding need is to provide transit service for all who need it, it is necessary to assign a factor of safety to the estimated demand for transit to account for a non-uniform spatial (i.e. area-specific) distribution of population. Thus, gli area-specific estimates of transit demand will be increased by 20 percent. (This is equivalent to increasing the total estimated demand by 20 percent.) The number of bus trips needed per route is based on the conservative premise that the average bus occupancy at the completion of each trip will not exceed 30 persons., This figura compares with an actual seated capacity of 40 adults or 60 children. For example, if the passengers are two-thirds adults and one-third children, then the bus capacity is 02/3) 40 + (1/3)
, 60 = 47 persons. On this basis, ,we hava assumed that bus trips,-
at most, will be' running at an average load fsctor of (30/47) x 100 = 64 percent. Thus, even if the actual demand for service at a bus staging area exceeds the estimates in column 3 of Table 10-7 by 57 percent, that demand can still be accommodated by the available seating capacity. Any additional demand can be accommodated by standing passengers or by allocating additional buses. As can be seen in Table 10-7, a total of 70 buses is required to provide sufficient capacity to transport transit-dependent people within an acceptable time frame. Estimates of evacuation times for . this population group are predicated on a number of factors:
- 1. Where will these buses originate?
- 2. How long will it take to mobilize bus drivers?
- 3. How long will it take to travel to staging areas?
- 4. How long will it take to traverse bus routes?
10-12 Rev. 0
Table 10-7. Estimated Transit Requirements (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) No. Bus People of Bus Pass. Trips Total Buses Requiring Routes Per Per Bus Required Community, Transit (Note 11 Route Route Trios (Note 2) Plymouth 884- 8 133 5 40 41 1 Kingston 234 2 140 5 10 10 . Carver 104 2 62 2 4 4 Duxbury 241 4 72 3 12 12 Marshfield 54 1 65 3 3 3 1517 69 70 Column Explanation Column Explanation 1 From column 6 of. Table 10-6' 4 Col. 3/30 2 See Appendix 0 . 5 Col. 2 x. Col. 4
, 3 1.2 x Col. 1/ Col. 2 6' 1.2 x Col. 1/36, but > no. of routes Notes: (1) The number of bus routes for Plymouth includes the use of 3 bus pickup points; the number for Duxbury, 1 bus pickup point. A portion of Plymouth (Subarea
- 6) is primarily served by one of the Carver routes and partially served by ancther. A portion of Northern Plymouth (Subarea 7) is also served by one Kingston bus route.
(2) The number of buses required for Plymouth, Kingston, Duxbury and Marshfield were increased due to bus schMuling considerations. 10-13 Rev. 0
The information needed to address these issues may be obtained from a " bus provider" survey
- conducted in' January 1987 and letters of agreement with bus operators.
Table 10-8 indicates the geographic distribution of transportation resources. Within 30 miles of Pilgrim Station there are more than a sufficient number of buses to meet all emergency needs. The survey indicated that unscheduled driver mobilization times range from 10 minutes to 6 hours, with an average of 30 minutes. This value will be used for clear weather scenarios. We will conservatively assume that driver mobilization time will ' increase by 50 percent, to 45 minutes under adverse weather conditions. Inbound bus travel times may be estimated by assuming that buses ars irawn from sources located within 30 miles of Pilgrim Station. Inbound speeds will be conservatively estimated at 30 , miles per hour under clear weather conditions and 23 miles per hour (a 25 percent reduction in speed) during adverse weather conditions. These estimates assume that most travel is along two-lane two-way rural roads. Consequently, inbound bus travel times are estimated at 1 hour in clear weather, and 1 hour 2.0 mint:ns under adverse weather conditions. The average elapsed time after the start of mobilization, that buses will be ready to depart the bus staging. areas on the periphery'of the EPZ is presented in Table 10-9. . [ Calculation of Transit Route Travel Times
~
The calculation of transit route travel times depe?is intrinsically on how the buses are allocated to -the speciflad routes in each community. The allocation of buses to bus routes within a community will be based on the objective of minimizing evacuation time. This is equivalent to stating the following: Allocate buses to routes so that the total time needed to evacuate transit-dependent persons is approximately the same for all routes. s
*This survey was conducted by HMM Associates for Boston Edison. !
10-14 Rev. 0
Table 10-8. Geographic Distribution of Transportation Resources Identified by Letters of Agreements a Distance From Wheelchair Pilcrim' Station Buses Vans Vans Ambulances 0- 10 miles 170 - 1 - 10 - 20 miles 82 1 - - - 20 - 30 miles 887 126 78 11 30 - 40 miles 21 24 16 87 Totals 1160 151 95 98 1 1 l
)
1 1 i l l a 10-15 Rev. 0 e
Table 10-9. Time Estimates for Supplemental Bus Evacuation Activities j l Time Estimates (Hrs.: Mins.) Weather conditions 3ctivity , Clear Adverse Mobilize Drivers :30 :45 Inbound Travel Time :40 :55 Delays Associated with Access Control :15 :15 Distribution of Maps, ' Dosimetry to Drivers :30 :30 Time Most Buses Arrive 1:55 2:25 l Times are referenced from the Site Area Emergency level, which is assumed to precede the Recommendation to Evacuate by 25 minutes'. Note: Since the bus staging areas are on the periphery of the EPZ, buses which beg:.1 their trip within 30 miles of Pilgrim Station travel'up to 20 miles to the bus staging areas. I 10-16 Rev. O l I
l i The analysis formulation and proceduro are presented below: Let N = Total number of buses needed in a community based on an average occupancy of 36 persons. See column 6 of Table 10-7. n = Number of bus trips along each route, r, within the community; r = 1,2, . . . , R. See column 4 of Table 10-7. X, = Number of buses allocated to route, r. t, = Bus travel time, hours, on route, r. This value is determined from the IDYNEV simulation output. For , those segments of the bus route which are not on evacuation routes (e.g. local streets or counterblow streets), a mean speed of 10 mph is assumed which takes into account time spent stopping to load passengers. A more detailed discussion will be
- presented later.
T, ( X,) = Totak, elapsed time to service transit-dependent evacuees along route, r, using X, buses to complete
. an aggregate of n trips.
H, = Bus headways on route, r. Definitionally,
~
T, ( X,) = p,t; + (n - (p,-l) X, - 1) H, for (p,-1) X, < n 5 p,X, ; p, = 1, 2, ... NOTE: p, = Maximum number of trips made by a bus on Route, r. where p, = n/X,. If not an integer, then p, = Int [n/X,+1]- Clearly, X, i n. That is, it makes no sense to assign more buses to a route than the number of trips to be completed. Also, by definition, H, = t,/X, . when X, < n. When X, = n, we will adopt the following condition in order , to provide reasonable spacing of buses: H, = min [t,/n, 0.2) -, l 10-17 Rev. 0 ) 1 l
a The objective is to select the X, such that max (T,(X,) ] is minimized r . subject to the condition, Sum (X,] =N . . r Procedure i The procedure is trial-and-error which converges rapidly if the proper care is taken.
- 1. Select the_ longest route, r = rt. Assign X, = n for this route.
- 2. Calculate p,, H, and T, ( X, = n)
S e t N, = N - X, = N - n
- 3. Select the longest remaining route. Estimate X, for this Route, r, as follows:
X, = ( t ,/ t ,t] X ,t
- 4. Calculate p,, H, and T,(X,) .
- 5. Compare T, ( X,) with T, ( X, comparable, accept the solution.
).' If these figures are Else, adjust the estimate of X,, accordingly, and repeat steps 4 and 5. i When completed, set N,. = N,. - X,
- 6. If more routes remain to be analyzed, return to step 3. If l finished, examine N,.. ;
I f N, < 0, either request more buses for this community to keep the objective function low, or reduce the number , of buses allocated to those routes which exhibit low values of T,(X,) trelative to other routes and redo the procedure of steps 4, 5 and 6 until N,. = 0. If N,. > 0, which is a desirable condition, there is a
. choice: Add buses to those routes with the longest values of T, ( X,) , subject to X, < n, and/or store these excess buses at the local transportation center for use only to accept people from.the route buses and to transport them ,
out of the EPZ. 10-18 Rev. 0 l
. i l
l If N, = 0, procedure is complete. Example: Kingston,' N = 10, n=5 (from Table 10-7) r= 1 2 t, = 1.33 2.08 l Sten Procedure 1 Choose r = rv = 2; Assign X 2 =n=5 1 2 P2 = 5/5 = 1 H 2 = min [2.06/5, 0.2] = 0.2 T (5) = 1(2.08) + [5 - (1 - 1) 5 - 1) (0.2) = 2.88 2 N,, = 10 - 5 = 5 3 r=1 X 1 = (1.33/2.08)5 = 3.19, say 3 ]
. 1 4 p1 = int (5/3 + 1] = 2 Ht .= 1.33/2 = 0.44
- T (2) = 2(1.33) '+ [5 1 '(2 - 1)3 - 1](0.44) = 3.10 I Since T 1 (2) and Ta(5) are similar, accept this solution N,, = N, - X1 = 5-3=2 Results: r X, T, ( X,) l 1 3 2.49 3 buses (2 - 2 trips, 1 - 1 trips) 2 1 2.56 5 buses ( 5 - 1 trip) 8 2 buses used as a reserve Discussions with emergency planners have indicated that sufficient bus resources are available so that multiple bus runs on selected routes and the use of transfer buses are not required.
Consequently, the procedure described above was implemented by assuming X, = n for all rcutes. A summary of the results of the transit analysis described previously is presented in Table 10-10. Bus routes were subdivided > into three segments: , 10-19 Rev. 0 ____ m__________m_ _ _ _ _ _ - - -
l Table 10-10.- Rocults of Analysis to obtain Bus Route - Timso for Transit-Dspandsnt Persons Within the EPZ Total Travel. Buses Route
, Route Length (miles) Time per Time In- Service Out- Tr Route 'Tr(Xr)
Community Route bound Area bound (hours) Xr (hours) Plymouth P-1
- 14.7 5.3 10.0 2.07 5 2.87 P-2 7.0 8.7 6.7 2.07 5 2.87 -
P-3 14.0 8.7 7.0 1.60 5 2.40 P-4a 4.7 14.0 5.3 1.65 3 2.05 P-4b 2.3 15.3 5.3 1.72 3 2.12 Pickup Cordage PX 13.0 - 10.0 1.26 5 ;1.26 , Points Court St. 13.0 - 10.0 1.26 5 1.26 l
. Sheraton 13.0 -
10.0 1.26 5 1.26 i Plaza ( l Plymouth / C-2 - 26.6 - 2.96 _1 3.36* Carver 41 , l Carver .C-1 - 16.7 2.7 2.09 2 2.29 i C-3 ,- 18.5 - 2.31 1 '2.51 4 1
.k i
Kingston K-1 - 13.3 - 1.33 5 2.13 K-2 - 20.0 - 2.08 _1 2.88 10 Duxbury M-1 8.3 9.7 3.7 1.7,9 3 2.19 M-2 9.0 8.0 2.0 1.08 3 1.48 M-3 2.7 11.7 2.7 1.63 3 1.48 Pickup Powder Pt. 6,0 - 6.0 0.75 _1 0.75 Point Bridge 12 Mars'hfield M-4 4.0 10.0 4.0 1.91 1 2.31 3 i
*Three bus runs are required; runs 1 and 2 use two buses per run, run 3 utilizes one bus.
10-20 Rev. 0 e ____m .... _ _ - - - - - -
o Inbound - This ic the route msgmant between the bus staging /transfor point and the start of the transit service area. Travel speeds along this segment are dependent on the roadways used for this leg of the route. A speed of 50 mph was used for limited access highways (Route 3); 40 mph was used for other roads. o Service Area - This is the portion of the bus route where transit dependent per. sons are picked up on demand. It is possible for the entire bus route to lie ' within a service area. Speeds within the service area are assumed to be the minimum of speeds computed by IDYNEV for segments of the bus route along evacuation routes and 10 mph. Ten miles per hour was taken as the - average speed of a bus which stops periodically to pick up passengers. , o outbound ~ - Following .the traverse of the service area buses will return to the bus etaging area / transfer point. Speeds on the outbound leg are determined by IDYNEV, if the outbound leg is an evacuation route, or 40 mph on roads not used for evacuation. Buses assigned to fixed pickup points have the lowest bus route times. Consequently, these buses should be dispatched from the pickup points and proceed to Reception Centers when they are full, or nearly full. The last bus to leave the bus pickup point should be dispatched near the conclusion of the evacuation of the general publi'c (see Table 9-8). The transit -dependent ETE can be estimated by summing the bus preparatory activity times (Table 10-9) and the total route j times presented in Table 10-10. The results are shown below in ' Table 10-11. Schools and Scacial Facilities Each community Transportation Coordinator has the responsibility ' for assigning available transport to service the needs of transit-dependent persons, according to some system of prioritization. It is reasonable to expect that the first arriving buses will be sent to the schools. It is essential that the local Transportation Coordinator determine the number of buses needed at each school at the time , of their (i.e. the buses) arrival -- not the number based on school enrollment. The need for such distinction arises because actual attendance may differ from student enrollment. Further, it is likely that some parents will arrive at schools to pick up children thun reducing the demand for school buses.1 . 10-21 Rev. 0 9
..___..____._--.m- _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ _
l Tablo 10-11. Evacuation Timo EctimatGO for the I Transit-Dependent Population Within the Entire EPZ l Elapsed Time (hrs.: min.) Elapsed Time from Start of (hrs.: min.) l Mobilization at the from the ! Declaration of a Recommendation . 1 Conmunity Site Area Emercancy to Evacuate I Good Adverse Good Adverse Weather Weather Weather Weather Plymouth 5:15 5:45 4:50 5:20 Kingston 4:50 5:20 4:25 4:55 Carver 4:25 4:55 4:00 4:30 Duxbury 4:10 4:40. 3:45 4:15 Marshfield 4:15 4:45 3:50 4:20 l l l w i 10-22 Rev. 0 l l l
Figure 10-1 pransnts the identification and location of all schools within the Pilgrim EPZ. Table 10-12 presents enrollments and maximum transportation requirements for each school in the EPZ. Discussions 'with . school district personnel h a v e - i n d i c a t e,d that Plymouth and Duxbury Schools require 3 bus runs to execute their standard early dismissal plans. Kingston, Carver, and Marshfield have sufficient transportation resources to execute their early dismissal plans in a single bus run. In the event an evacuation is ordered, several factors would tend to reduce the need for multiple bus runs to evacuate students. First, the figures cited in Table 10-12 are l enrollment, not attendance figures. Second, the local Transportation Coordinator will be able to draw upon additional transportation resources to supplement the local bus fle.et servicing schools in the EPZ. Each activity for local buses is discussed below; the estimated times for the supplemental buses were given earlier. Activity: Mobilize Drivers Mobilization may be defined as the elapsed time from tihe moment. that .the transit agency is . notified of the need for vehicles' until the time the vehicles leave their respective points. of- origin. Mobili'zation of school bus drivers is scheduled to begin at the Site Area Emergency Level- which is assumed to follow the activation of Local EOCs. Discussions with local school district personnel yield the following estimates of average bus driver mobilization time: Plymouth 30 minutes Kingston 60 minutes Carver 45 minutes Duxbury 90 minutes Marshfield 60 minutes Activity: Proc ed to Schoqla In general, buses are stered at a central bus depot owned by the bus company, at drivers homes, or at town facilities. Distances between bus sterw3'c area's and schools are generally, under 5 miles. Trip times for local buses from'the storage areas to the schools are approximately 10 minutes. , 10-23 Rev. O l l
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, 10-24
Tablo 10-12. School Enrollmsnt and Maximum Transportation i Requirements ' Reg'd ) School Location Enrollment Staff Bubes (1) i Plymouth j l Plymouth So. Long Pond Rd. NA NA - j High School 35W 6 mi. ) 1 Plymouth-
- I Carver High Obery St. 1348 166 30 _
i School W 3.5 mi. Plymouth- Long Pond 1844 226 41 , Carver WSW 4 mi. ! Intermediate i Nathaniel Lincoln St. 921 96 20 Morton W 4 mi. l Cold Spring Alden St. 354 34 8 1 WNW 5 mi. 1 1 Pupil Personnel Development- ,130 Court St. 28 9 5 K & Pr,e School WNW 5 mi'. minib'su Hedge School Standish Ave. . 255 43 6 WNW 6 mi. St. Peter's Memorial Dr. Closed Kindergarten WNW 4.5 mi. l Mount Whiting St. Closed Pleasant W 4 mi. Oak Street Oak Street 83 5 2 W 5 mi. Manomet Point Rd. 432 - 54 10 Elememtary SE 2 mi. Federal hederalFurnace 622 59 14 Furnace Sch. .WSW 8 mi. , Indian Brook State Rd. 670 66 15
.., SSE 5 mi.
~
(1) Assume 45 students per but.. 10-25 Rev. 0
1
. Table 10-12. School Enrollment and Maximum Transportation Requirements (cont.)
L Reg'd ) School Location Enrollment Staff Buses j (1) S. Elementary Bourne Rd. 640 61 14 School SSW 8 mi. W. Elementary ' Plymouth Rd, 700 70 16 1 School Route 80 W 7.5 mi.
- Pinewood Federal 30 3 1 School Furnace Rd.
Montessori WSW 7 mi. Carver Carver H.S. S. Meadow Rd. 750 92 17 SSW 10 mi. Gov. John Main St. 1207 122 27 Carver WSW 11 mi. Benjamin'Ellis'Tremont Rd. 21 - ' 4 _ 1 School SSW 11 mi, Marshfield . Gov. Winslow Regis Rd. 569 47 13 Elementary NNW 10 mi. School J Kinaston Kingston Elem. Main St. 721 72 20 School WNW 8 mi. Silver Lake Rembroke St. 917 130 25 High School WNW 11 mi. Sacred Heart Route 80 1280 104 28 Schools W 8 mi. (1) Assume 45 students per bus. 10-26 Rev. 0
1 Table 10-12. School Enrollment and Maximum Transportation Requirements (conc.) Req'd . E.chool Location Enrollment Staff Buses i (1) l Duxburv Duxbury H.S. St. George 1016 146 23 l
)
St. NNW 9 mi.
]
Du): bury Int. St. George 657 96 15 - Intermediate St. NNW 9 mi. Chandler Chandler St. 581 49 16 Elementary NW 10 mi. Magic Dragon St. George St. 39 10 1 Childrens Ctr. NNW 9 mi. Duxbury H.S. Alden Upper Alden St. 250 21 6 Elementary NW 9 mi.
- School Alden Lower Alden St. 423 35 10-Elementary NW 9 mi. '
~
School . (1) Assume 45 students per bus. ; 1 s I 1 10-27 Rev. 0
Activity: Load / Unload Passencers , 'l
}
Studies have shown that pasengers can board a bus at I headways of' 2-4 seconds (Ref. 1985 Highway capacity Manual). A bus can be loaded with school children in about five minutes. Allow another five minutes for organizing and monitoring the children. Activity: Travel from School to EPZ Boundary
- School buses moving out of the EPZ will be evacuating during the same time frame as the general population. Therefore, the speeds of buses within'the EPZ are governed by traffic conditions on the routes taken. Table 10-13 presents a summary of average route speeds for the winter Midweek, Midday, Good Weather Scenario (Scenario 5). Values shown in the table were computed by using a weighted average of individual link speeds on paths from schools to the EPZ boundary. l l
l A summary of estimated times for these activities is presented in Table 10-14. As indicated there, supplemental buses will arrive at schools in Plymouth and Duxbury prior te the time { that local buses could return from the reception center for a ! second run. ) Note that the ETE for school buses are less than that for the general .public -- compare the figures in Table 10-14 with those in Table 9-8.
~
. j l
l S'cacial' Facilities 1 1 Figures 10-2, 10-3 and 10-4 present identification and location of special facilities in the Pilgrim EPZ. The time to load ambulatory passengers at special facilities is comprised of the time to travel from the local transportation center to the special facilities and than to load the passengers. Studies have shown that passengers can board a bus at headways of 2-4 seconds (see 1985 Highway capacity Manual). Thus, if we increase these headways to account for elderly passengers, and allow additional time to walk to the bus, then we estimate that a bus can be fully loaded in about 10 minutes (15 second mean headway fog 40 passengers). The time to travel to the facility from the staging area depends on the distance travelled and on whether the bus will be travelling with, or counterblow, the evacuating public. If we assume the former, and apply the mean speed of 8.6 mph obtained for Scenario 1, Region 1, as computed by the IDYNEV simulation,
- then for a distance of say, 6 miles within the community, the travel time will be about 40 minutes.
10-28 Rev. 0 l _ ._ --_--- _-___-____ _ _ -
Table 10-13. Average Route Speeds During Evacuation; Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario 5) Average speed (miles / hour) at indicated elapsed times from Recommendation to Evacuate. Path 1 hour 2 hours 3 hours 4 hours Route 44 West j from Plymouth Center 7.9 8.2 26.0 39.9 Route 3A South, Manomet 7.7 7.3 35.9 40.0
^
Bourne Road
. South 34.0 34.1 35.0 35.0 Route 106 Kingston 36.8 40.5 40.9 40.9 h Route 27 Kingston 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 Route 58 Nort'h Carver 45'.6 45.8 49.4 49.8
<> Route 3A North Duxbury 31.3 35.0 35.0 35.0 Route 93 Duxbury 46.6 46.6 46.6 46.6 9
i l l 10-29 Rev. 0
Table 10-14. School Evacuation Time Estimates for one Round Trip Supp. Cominunity Activity Buses Plymouth Kincston Carver Duxbury Marshfield Mobilize ': 30 :30 1: 00 :45 1:30 1:00 Drivers Proceed 1:15 :10' :10 :10 :10 :10 to Schools Driver :30 :15 :15 :15 :15 :15 Preparation __ . _ , , _ _. Elapsed 2:15 :55 1:25 1:10 1:55 1:25 Time to Arrive at School, (average) Board ;10 :10 :10 :10 :10 :10 Students Travel to 1:15* 1:15 1:15 :05 :10 :05 EPZ Bdry Elapsed 3:'40. 2:20 1:50 '1:25 - 2:15- 1:4'O Time from Site Area Level ETE 3:15 1:55 1:25 1:00 1:50 1:15 Notes: Use of supplementary buses for Plymouth and Duxbury are required to avoid multiple bus runs. It is assumed that the mobilization process begins at the 1 Site Area Emergency level which, according to the Planning Basis, occura 25 minutes prior to the Recommendation to Evacuate.
*From Ply:routh; 0:10 from ,Duxbury 10-30 Rev. 0 f
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t_______________._.___.._ _ . _ _ _ . __
Thus tho total tima to load passengers.at special facilities is approximately 50 minutes. The time to travel out of the EPZ depends on several factors: o The location where this trip orginates. o 'The traffic environment at the time this trip begins. The discussion above, in the~ context of the estimates given in Table 10-9, has identified that a reasonable estimate of the elapsed tinu from the Recommendation To Evacuate to the time that a bus servicing a special facility is loaded, is about 3 hours. Reference to Table 9-8 indicates that no evacuation will have been completed for any scenario in that time. Thus it is seen that the buses and vans used to evacuate special facilities will join, and be embedded within, the overall traffic streams evacuating the EPZ. It follows that the ETE for these transit vehicles will not exceed those estimates already developed for evacuees using private vehicles, regardless of the 4 evacuation scenario. l Emergency Medical Service (EMS) Vehicles The previous discussion focused on transit operations for ambulatory persons within the EPZ. It is.also necessa'.y to provide , transit services to non-ambulatory persons who- do not--or cannot--have access to private vehicles. These EMS vehicles are vans equipped for transporting non-ambulatory persons (e.g. those confined to wheel chairs), ambulettes and ambulances. Since they are generally available on an emergency basis, it is reasonable to expect that their mobilization times would be much less than for bus vehicles. In fact, drivers for EMS are always either "on-station" or can be reached via a telecom pager. It is therefore reasonable to expect that mobilization time for EMS vehicles can be completed within 20 minutes. On the other hand, many EMS vehicles would have tc travel much longer distances to the EPZ, than would buses. For example, EMS vehicles from the Boston area would travel .a total of about 40 miles to a community within the EPZ and thence to a facility to pick-up passengers. A mean inbound travel speed of 50 mph on limited access highways is assumed. Thus the total elapsed time, at worst, from notification to the loading of an, EMS vehicle at its destination within the EPZ, is estimated at: 10-34 Rev. 0
Mobilization Tim 3 0:20 Inbound Travol: 40/50 0:50 Delays at EPZ Boundary and Staging Areas 0:45 Travel from Staging Area to Facility 10 miles /25 mph 0:25 Loading Passengers: 0:10 2:30 The time to load up to two passengers into an EMS vehicle assumes that these passengers have been prepared for transportation during the 2 hours, or so, between the evacuation recommendation and the arrival of the vehicle. Outbound travel would be controlled by the spe6d of evacuating general traffic since all EMS vehicles will begin evacuation prior to the ETE for those in private vehicles. Using Table 10-13, a conservative outbound speed may be set at 8 miles per hour. Further, assuming an EMS vehicle travels 10 miles to the EPZ boundary, the outl4ned travel time .is approximately 1:15. Consequently the ETE, referenced from the Evacuation Recommendation, is 2:30 + 1:15 - 0:25 or 3:20. For slowly escalating accidents, EMS vehicles are ready to be
-dispatched from staging areas when the Evacuation Recommendation is issued. Consequently, the ETE is comprised of the time required to travel to the facility, load passengers, and leave the EPZ.
Under,these. conditions,'the ETE is: 0:25 + 0:10 ,+ 1:15 = 1.50. Conclusions i l The evacuation time estimates for transit-dependants, schools, special facilities and emergency medical services are all within the period of time during which the general public is evacuating. The results of these analyses are summarized in Tables 9-10 under the columns labelled Special Population Evacuation Time. l l w
*t 10-35 Rev. O END
- 11. SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a concomitant need for tow-truck equipment to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement.
Surveillance can take several forms.
- 1. Aerial patrol
- 2. Ground patrol
- 3. Fixed-point This plan calls for all forms of surveillance to be applied:
- 1. Arrangements should be made with the Civil Air Patrol to provide aerial surveillance, using fixed-wing aircraft.
Such surveillance is effective both day and night, weather permitting. The aircraft must have a communication link to the State EOC and the pilots must be trained to utilize dosimetry equipment and be informed so that he can avoid the plume, if any.
- 2. Grcund patrol can be undertaken by State police along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways which serve as major evacuation routes. Such patrols are not essential in the presence of air surveillance and multiple TCP, however, they should be undertaken if personnel resources permit. Figure- 11-1. depicts 6 patrol route's, identified as P.R-1 through PR-6. Each such closed path is delineated on Figure 11-1 by cross-hatching the enclosed area. ,
- 3. Fixed-point surveillance is provided by all traffic guides located at the Traffic Control Posts (TCP -- See Appendix I) and at the Access control Posts (ACP -- See Appendix L) .
These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. With this coverage, any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle should be quickly identified within a matter of minutes: o From the air, a blockage is identified by a marked discontinuity in traffic density. Upstream of the blockage, evacuating vehicles will exhibit a dense queuing pattern while the highway downstream vill exhibit a very low density. Such a discontinuity is easily
. detected at night, by observing the pattern of head-lights and tail-lights, and by day, directly.
11-1 Rev. 0
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o Tho patrol cars, manncd by cxperionccd police personnel, should be able to travel faster than the general public along those portions of their routes which ~are in the outbound direction. These patrol routes are designed so that the patrols travel counter-flow, relative to the evacuees, on these roads which .are most heavily congested. For example, Patrol Route 3 (PR-3) travels
. inbound along Route 44 and outbound (i.e. with the evacuating traffic) along the lesser congested Tremont Road.
Most patrol . routes are approximately 15-20 miles in length. This length, in combination with skillful ' driving by experienced police personnel, should permit one cycle over the route to be completed well within one hour. A blockage would be identified visually using the same criteria of density discontinuity described above, or directly.
- While such patrols are somewhat redundant if aerial surveillance is available, we recommend its implementation if resources permit. Certainly, as traffic volumes decrease with time, some personnel at lightly-loaded TCP could assume this role of patrolling the indicated routes.
o Personnel at the TCP and - ACP would recognize that a blockage (beyond visible range) has occurred, when a pronounced and extended decrease in evacuating traffic volume is observed along an evacuation route. While short-term fluctuations in demand are common, any sharp decrease in demand which prevails for more than three minutes should be viewed as a symptom of a - possible i blockage somewhere on an approach to the TCP location. It is also probable that a passing motcrist will inform ' the traffic guide that a blockage has taken place. The traffic guide would immediately report to the EOC that an apparent blockage is taking place. If more than one guide is stationed at the TCP, then one officer can l'e ave the post to investigate the cause. If a police car "is patrolling the route, then that car can be assigned to investigate. Tow vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement j is likely to arise due to mechanical failure or exhausting the fuel supply. In either case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring access for the following vehicles. 11'-3 Rev. 0 4
Most accidents involving vehicles travelling at low speeds
- will not result in a vehicle disablement; most of those that are disabled can be pushed onto the shoulder. Experience in past emergencies indicate that such activities (i.e. pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road) is often undertaken by other evacuees who are anxious to continue their trips.
While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. We therefore recommend that tow trucks be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that: 9 o They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes. o Tow trucks responding _ to a need would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic. Table 11-1 lists recommended locations for stationary tow trucks during an evacuation. All such equipment should be located stig the major roads (e.g. in a parking area) so as not to impede traffic movement. The function of such equipment is to clear the roads of any obstruction and to return to the.ir original locations to await any subsequent call for assistance. of course, if. another call for assistance is received by a tow truck while responding to an earlier call, it would proceed directly to 'the second. location after completing the removal of the iiisabled vehicle, or other obstruction, from the roadway. . The'se tow trucks should all have communication equipment linked, either directly or indirectly, with the EOC. They should also carry a supply of gasoline to assist any motorist who has exhausted his/her fuel supply. s > l l
*For example, the average vehicle speed for the case of Scenario 1 and Region 1, is about 9 miles per hour.
11-4 Rev. 0
Table 11-1. Recommended Tow Truck Locations Within the EPZ Plymouth Sagamore Rotary Park-N-Ride Kingston Silver Lake High School Carver Governor John Carver School Duxbury Martinson Jr. High School Marshfield Martinson Jr. High' School
~
Outside the EPZ . Lccal towing services will be used as required. 1
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11-5 Rev. O END _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - _ - - _ - - - A
- 12. CONFIRMATION TIME
- It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective, in the sense that the public is complying with the order to evacuate. Since it is not feasible to
- confirm the compliance of every household within the EPZ in a timely manner, a procedure which employs a stratified random sample is recommended.
The size of the sample is dependent on the expected nurter of households which do not comply with the order to evacuate. We believe it is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sampla size, that at least 80 percent of the popolation within the EPZ will comply with the order to evacuate. On this basis, an analysis was undertaken (see Exhibit 12-1) which yielded an estimated sample size of approximately 300. The confirmation process should start at about 3 hours after 1 the order to evacuate is announced or 1 1/2 hours prior to the l ETE value, whichever is later. For example, if the ETE, ' referenced to the order to evacuate, is 5:30, then the . confirmation process should begin 4 hours after the order. If l the ETE is 3:30, then the confirmation process should begin 3 j hours after the order to evacuate. At these times, for either case, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic. As indicated in Exhibit 12-1, almost 8 1/2 person. hours are l needed to complete the telephone survey. If 7 people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges, then the confirmation process will extend over a time frame of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed about,15 minutes before the. evacuated area is cleared (for those cases where the ETE exceeds 4:30) or up to 45 minutes after the area is cleared, for situations with shorter ETE. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if only a portion of the EPZ is ordered to evacuate. Should the number of telephone responses (i.e. people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process l is completad. Summary of ETE Confirmation times, as tabulated in Tables 9-10a through 9-10d are calculated on the basis that two persons are involved in the telephone survey if Region 9 is evacuated, four persons if Regions 5-8 are evacuated, and one person per ERPA for Regions- ) 1 1-4. 12-1 Rev. O u ------------
Exhibit 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation j Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, p, of households that have not evacuated l
Reference:
Burstein, H., Attribute Samoline, McGraw Hill, 1971 l Given: No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 25,000 l Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate !
= 0.20 l Allowable error margin, e: 0.05 Confidence level, : 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)
Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p = p + e = 0.25 ; q = 1 - p = 0.75 - n= = 308 e2 - nN Finite population correction: ny = = 304 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the order to evacuate, then the required sample size, ny = 215. Est. Person Hours to comolete 300 telechone calls Assume: Time to dial using touch-tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds Time for 8 rings (no answer): 48 seconds Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec. Interval between calls: 20 sec. Person Houns: 300(30+20+0.8(48)+0.2(60)]/3600 = 8.4 12-2 Rev. O END 9 w
3s n oa T:0RVA10N N _Y 6 ETE UOL l II e G APPENDIX A 3 O Glossary of Terms
.3 il l1
,w-l Rev. 0
1 l l
. Appendix A: Glossary of Terms i i
Term Definition e Cap'acity Maximum number of vehicles which have a reasonable expectation of passing a given section of road- '
)
way in one direction,during a 9iven time period under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions. These are estimates which are ex-pressed as vehicles per hour (vph) Centroid An origin or destination located in the interior of the network. l Content Number of vehicles occupying a section of roadway at a particular point in time. j l Destination A location in the net'ork, w either within the interior or on the i
. periphery, to which trips are attracted.
Entry Node A network. node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which serves only as an origin. That is,
]
vehicles are generated and move into the network to travel toward their respective destinations. ; 1
. Exit Node A network node, usually located on the periphery of a network, which serves only as a destination. That is, vehicles which arrive at an exit node are discharged from the network. -
e t
, a A-1 . Rev. 0 e
* . l s .
i Te rm Definition Green-Timc to Cycle Time The ratio of the duration of a green
, actio (c/C Ratio) interval to the cycle length. This j ratio denotes the proportion of time available to service a specified traffic movement on a specific approach to an intersection.
! Internal Node All nodes which are not Entry or l Exit nodes. Vehicles travel through l these nodes from one link to the next along their respective paths toward their respective destinations.
Level of Service An index (A, B, ..., E) which is a
; qualitative descriptor of the oper-ational performance of traffic on a sect' ion of roadway, usually ex-pressed in terms of speedLtravel j time or density. In practice, o
each L'evel of Service index is t
. often associated with a range of service volumes'. This relation de-j pends on the type of facility
, (freeway, rural road, urban street). )
) Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway.
A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.)
}8 and operational (turn movement per-4 centages, service rate, free-flow
] speed) characteristics.
; Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traf fic opera-j tions on a roadway network.
Node A network node generally reprere.- a specific intersection of nett.- links. A node has control charac-
, teristics, i.e. the allocation of service time to each approach link.
i i A-2 - Rev. 0 5
Term Definition Origin A location' in the network, either within the interior, or on the periphery, where trips are generate at a specified. rate expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). These l trips enter the roadway. system to -
)
L travel to their respective destina- i I tions. 1 ! l Network A graphical representation of the I geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes. prevailing roadway and Relate to the phynital features traffic conditions of the roadway, the nature (e.g. composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.) Service Rate , Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing con-ditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps). Service volume Maximum number of vehicles which' can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditic at a specified Level of Service. (The service volume at Level of Service, E, is equal to Capacity) Service Volume is usually exprec.13 as vehicles per hour (vph). Signal Cycle, The total elapsed time to dicplay Cycle Time or all signal indications, in sequencc cycle Length The cycle length is expressed in I seconds. l A-3 Rev. 0
i ~ 9
,j Term De_finition I
Sig'nal Interval A single combination of signal ~ indications. The interval duration 1 is expressed in seconds. In gon-eral, several intervals, in l
; sequence, comprise a phase. .( - ) Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and j - intervals) which services a parti-j cular combination of traffic move-ments on the approaches to the .
3 l intersection. The phase duration l t is etpressed in seconds. e Traffic Assignment A process of assigning traffic to j paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all 'eip objectives (i.e. the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified de-stination) and to optimize'some
. stated objective or combination of objectivez..- In general, the ob ,
' jective is, stated in terms of mini-mizing a generalized "cdst".
For' example, " cost" may be ex-pressed in terms of travel. time. Traffic Density The number of vehicles which occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point of time, expressed as vehicles per lane-mile (vpim or vpm) Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to repli-cate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These ::n-tistics arc called Measures - Effectiveness. e l A-4 , Re.v . 0
Term Definition Traffic Volume The number of vehicles which pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traf fic volume may be stratified by turn movement. Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto bus, rail and air travel modes. Trip Table A rectangular matrix or table, who or entries contain the number of- trip , Origin-Destination which are generated at each specif Matrix origin, during a specified time period, which are attracted to (an ; travel toward) one of the specific destinations. These values are ex pressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles. . Turning capaci.ty The capacity associated with that l l .
- component'of.the traffi.c' stream
. which executes a specified turn -
maneuver from an approach at an intersection. I
\
l A - Rev. 0
c l 4
, i
) I i , 1 l i !
, 1 i
1 I l
- I 1
l APPENDIX B Traffic Assignment Model 0
+
1
\
t l l l 1 l l 1 e
. Rev. 0 0
l t Appendix.B: Traffic Assignment Model e The traffic assignment program which is emp'.cyed in thic
! study is an elaboration of an existing model developed by Dr. 5. ; Nguyen.* This model is an equilibrium assignment model which l employs mathematical programming methodology to search for, and j attain, a global optimum solution.- The term," optimum" , implies that the solution is unique and that it minimizes a specified cc ; function.
t i This cost function, in our application, is expressed j directly in terms of aggregate travel time. That is , the model
- formulation relates travel time to the assigned volumes on each l network link according to the following formulation:
ly ,}b 1 1 I Ti=To,i 1+aC g !
! where Ti = Travel Time on link, i,sec " .i T 'g ='Specified free-flow-(zero delay)" travel time on h link,1,sec .
4 i 1 , j V g = Volume of traffic on a link,1, vph l L 1 , 'o C g = capacity of link,1, vph 1 a,b = Specified calibration parameters The cost function, then, is formulated in terms of travel
; time along each path from each origin to each respective destina-tion. Minimizing this path-specific travel time (i.e. the so-called User optimization), all vehicles are assured of being routed along the shortest (in travel time) possible path to the.
respective destinations. The computational algorithm assigns traffic over the ne* - in such a way as to minimize this aggregate cost. That is, t.. allocation of volumes, V, to the network links, i=1,2..., U is accomplished in such a way as to: .
*Nguyen, S. and James, L., " TRAFFIC - An Equilibrium Traf fic Assig,nment Program," Publication No. 17, Centro de Ecserche sur Ics Transports, March 1975.
B-1 Rev. 0 e
. _ . _ . _ - - . - _ _ _ ~ _ _ _ - _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ _ . _ - - _ - _ w
o satisfy all specified origin-destination denar.du, e Satisfy the minimum-cost (travel time) objective, l e Catisfy any s'pecified control treatment and turn re-strictions designed to:
- Expedite the evacuation process .
- Minimize radiation exposure of the vehicle occupants.
Most applications o' traf fic assignment employ constant, estimated, values of link capacity, Ci. It is well k nown , how-ever, that link capacity is a function of many factors including the (unknown) turn volumes on all links serviced by a common intersection. Consequently, the assumption of constant link capacity compromises the efficacy of the assignment results. 1 To resolve this problem, KLD has expanded the exis, ting TRAFFIC model to incorporate a model, named the TRAFLO CAPACITY model. This model computes accurate estimates of capacity, Ci, t are always consistent with the assigned volumes, Vi, on each link. This capacity model consists of three integrated componen' e A formulation which calculates the service rates for through and left-turning vehicles in a lane, given, among other d5ta, the proportion'of l' eft-turners in the lane, e Another formulation for through and right-turner service rates, j e A formulation which calculates the lateral deployment of traffic on an approach, yielding the proportion of through and turning vehicles in each lane. These three components are exercised in an iterative manner to produce accurate and self-consistent estimates of service rates for approaches of general configuration and for al types of control devices. Many tests have confirmed that this solution procedure is rapid, accurate and unconditionally con-vergent. In summary, the Traffic Assignment Model used in th c pro;- repecsonts the latest state-of-the-art and provides accurato est D-2 Rev. 0 l
1 ( mates of link volumes, stratified by turn movement at the down-stream mode (intersection). These turn volumes on cach link are subsequently input into the Traff'ic Simulation Program. I e l I f I l 8 r I e l li ! l 1 y j i l 1 i l B-3 ' Rev. 0 l l END
l I
' i
- i 1
I 1 1
; i 1
I i i 3
+
l l l . I i t l l 1 1 l APPENDIX C Traffic Simulation Model: I-DYNEV . i \ s J 4 9 e f 1 4 1 1 2 S I Rev. 0 l l .
Ahpend ix C: Tra f fic C irulction Model: I-DYMEV A model, named I-DYMCV, is an adaptation of the TRAF LO Level II simulation model, developed by KLD for the Federal l Highway Administration (FHWA), with extensions in scope to ac- ' commodate all types of facilities. This model produces an extensive set of output MOE as shown in Table C-1. ' 1 The traf fic stream is described in terms of a set of link- l specific statistical flow histograms. These histograms (Figure C-describe the platoon structure of the traffic stream on each net-work link. The simulation logic identifies five types of histo-grams: e The ENTRY histogram which describes the platoon flow at the upstream end of the subject link. This histo-gram is simply an aggregation of the appropriate OUTPUT l turn-movement-specific histograms of all feeder links.
)
e The INPUT histograms which describe the platoon flow l
. pattern arriving at the stop line. These are obtained i by first disaggregating the ENTRY histogram into turn- f movement-specific component ENTRY histograms. Each l such. component is modified t'o account for the platoon dispersion which results as traffic traverses the link.
The resulting INPUT histograms reflect the specified turn percentages for the subject link. e The SERVICE histogram which describe the service rates j for each turn movement. These service rhtes reflect j the type of control device servicing traffic on this j approach; if it is a signal, then this histogram re-
, flects the specified movement-specific signal phasing.
A separate model was developed to estimate service rates for each turn movement, given that the contrcl is GO. , o The QUEUE histograms which describe the time-varying ebb and growth of the queue formation at the stop line. These histograms are derived from the interaction of the respective IN histograms with the SERVICE histogramc. I e The OUT histograms which describe the pattern of traf-fic discharging from the subject link. Each of the IN histograms is transformed into an OUT histogram by the control applied to the subject link. Each of these OUT histograms is added into the (aggregato) ENTRY histogram of its receiving link. C-1 ,
. gey, o
1 il . ,j Table C-1: Measures of Effectiveness output by I-DYNCV I 1 i 1 Measurc Units f . t Vehicles-Miles and Vehicle-Trips Travel 4 l Moving time Vehicle-Minutes i s' Delay time Vehicle-Minutes i vehicle-Minutes
. Total travel time Efficiencys. moving time /
total travel time Percent Hean travel time per vehicle Seconds l Mean delay per vehicle Seconds Hean delay per vehicle-mile Seconds / Mile
. Mean speed ,
Miles /Nour Mean occupancy vehicles Mean saturation Percent Vehicle stops h reent These data are provided for each network link and are also aggregated over the entire network. l 1 C-2 Rev. O ! l I
l ( I s i t d f o e e e I \
.c I G -
. j '
2 . 0 10 20 30 4n Time o Sec.
> l J
l l l Figure C-1: Statistical representation of the traffic stream platoon structure. C-3 , gey, o 9
Note that this app, roach provides the I-lWNF,V mode l wita *n. ability to identify the characteristics of each turn-movement-specific component of the traffic stream. Each component is serviced at a different saturation flow rate as is the case in Furthermore, the I-DYNEV
,the real world. logic will be able to recognize when one component of the traffic flow is encoun- !
tering saturation conditions even if the others are not. l 1 ' Algorithms provide estimates of delay 'and stops reflecting i the interaction of the IN histograms with the SERVICE histograms. 4 The I-DYNEV logic also provides for preparly treating spillback
- l conditions reflecting queues extending from one link into its l upstream feeder links.
A valuable feature of I-DYNEV is its ability to internally generate functions which relate mean speed to density on each link, given user-specified estimates of free-flow speed and l saturation service rates for each link. Such relationships are essential in order to simulate traffic operations on freeways and rural roads, where the signal control does not exist or where its effect is not the dominant factor in impeding traf fic flow. All traffic simulation models are data-intensive. Table C-2. I outlines the- inpu't requirements of t'he I-DYNEV Model. ' In order to apply the I-DYNEV Model, the' physical traffic environment must be specified by the user. This input data l describes: l l e Topology of the roadway system o Geometries of each roadw'ay component e Channelization of traffic on each roadway component e Motorist behavior which, in aggregate, determines the operational performance of vehicles in the system o Specification of the traffic control devices and their operational characteristics e Traffic volumes entering and leaving the roadway syst2m o Traffic composition To provide an efficient framework for defining these ape-cifications, the physical environment is represented as a net-work. The unidirectional links of the network generally represen* roadway components: either urban streets or f reeway segments. The nodes of the network generally represent urban intersections of point's along the freeway where a geometric property changes (e.g. , a lane drop, change in grade or remp.) C-4 Rev. 0
Figure C-2 is an example of a network representation. The , freeway is defined by the sequence of links, (1,2), (2,3), ..., l' (5,0). Links (8000,1) and (7,8002) are Entry and Exit links, respectively. An arterial extends from node 7 to node 15 and f, is partially subsumed within a grid network. l The development of the I-DYNEV nodel followed directly after j
; oy::CV was concleted. The perceived need for I-DYNEV was based ;
. upon the requirement for a model having all the demonstrated i capabilities of DYNEV, but one which consumed less computer time j and storage. l
- The major distinction between DYNEV and I-DYNEV is that the 1atter model directly calculates the intecral of the histograms
} described earlier (see Figure C-1), instead of computing the amoli-2 tudes of each histogram slice, as does DYNEV. One other difference ) is that in I-DYNEV, vehicles which cannot travel along their assignec l 1 evacuation route due to excessive congestion will divert to another, ,} alternative evacuation route if the latter is not congested. In
< a11'other respects, the two models are either identical (e.g., the input and output software) or are very similar, with any differenci reflecting the major distinction described above. This major distinction results in software code which' consumes significantly less storage for I-DYNEV than for DYNEV, reflecting the elimination of large arrays containing the amplitude values of each histogram slice. The reduced computational burden is reficcted in almost a three-fold reduction in computing time. A thorough comparison was made between the results generated by the two models. It was found that all pairs of results, DYNEV and I-DYNEV, were virtually identical for a wide variety of network l configurations and traffic demand levels. Note that the two models require the identical input stream and produce identical output formats. On the basis of these results, I-DYNEV is used exclusively for the EESF system, to calculate evacuation time estimates. 4 C-5 Rev. o
l Tabic C-2: Input requirement:; for the 1-DYNCV.Model GEOMETRICS Links defined by upstream downstrea.-t node nu.mhers. Links lengths. l ' Number of lanes (up to 6) . Turn pockets.
. Grade. I Network topology defined in tems of target nodes for each receiving 1;
* ' TRAFFIC VOLUMES On all entry links and sink / source nodes stratified by vehicle type:
auto, car pool, bus, truck. Link-specific turn movements og o-o matrix (Trip Ta$le) .
\
TRAFFIC CONTROL SPECIFICATIONS I Traf51c signals: link-specific, turn movement specific. Control may be fixed-time or traffic-actuated. . Stop and Yield signs. Right-turn-on-red (RTOR) . Route diversion specifications. l Turn restrictions.
. Lane control (i.e., lane closure) .
DRIVER'S AIS OPERATIONS CHARACTERISTICS Driver's (vehicle-specific) response mechanisms: free-flow speed, aggressiveness, discharge headway. l Link-specific mesa speed for free-flowing (unimpeded) traffic. Vehicle-type operational characteristics: acceleration, deceleration. I Such factors as bus route designation, bus station location, dwell time, headway, etc. C-6 ' Rev. 0 4 e
Entry, Exit nodes O d' are numbered in the form, OXXX 4 d b e e f ,
^d I f la ~
,P #
f lo t,3 . . c' . 9
% 4 1
., N M -
c3
*4 %
i n
- e .=
A T's 4
,g ' a 6e r
~
pf Te
.# 1 Figure C-2: Representative analysis network.
C-7 , Rev. 0 END l
1 l l l APPENDIX D
- . Detailed' Description of l
. Study Procedure 1
l l l i I I b, e i t 4 Rev. 0 l - - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Appendix D: Detailed Description of Study Procedure This appendix describes the,activitics to be performed
> in order to produce accurate estimates of evacuation times on the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for a nuclear power plant. The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the-description which follows corresponds to the numbered ele-ment in this flow diagram.
Step,,,1 The first activity is to obtain data defining the spatial distribution of population within the EPZ. Specifically, obtain the population in each of 160 cells of a polar grid which is centered at the nuclear station, and consists of 22.5' sections and rings spaced one mile , apart. Transient population characteristics must also be I estimated on the same basis. Step 2 The next activity is to examine a large-scale map of the EPZ. This map enables one to identify the access roads from each residential development to the adjoining
. elements of the analysis roadway network. This information l is necestsary in order to assign generated trips to the correct links of the network. This map also enables one to represent the geometrics of complex intersections properly in terms of their network configuration.
Step 3 With this information absorbed, the next step is to conduct a physical survey of the roadway system within the EPZ. The purpose of this. survey is to determine the necessary measurements of roadway length and of the number}}