ML20235F122
| ML20235F122 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Shoreham File:Long Island Lighting Company icon.png |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1987 |
| From: | GREATER HARRISBURG BOARD OF REALTORS, INC. |
| To: | |
| References | |
| OL-3-I-SC-004, OL-3-I-SC-4, NUDOCS 8709280424 | |
| Download: ML20235F122 (18) | |
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THREE MILE ISIAND tiUCLEAR ACCIDENT I
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COMMUNITY IMPACT STUDY ON REAL ESTATE
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Prepared by:
DON PAUL SHEARER, GRI. REALTOR Real Estate Appraiser / Consultant i
3806 Market Street Camp Hill, PA 17011 for:
TMI Impact Study Committee Creater Harrisburg Board of REAL70RS March 27, 1980 l
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COMMUNITY IMPACT STUDY' ON REAL ESTATE OF THE THREE MILE ISLAND NUCLEAR ACCIDENT (March 28, 1979)
PREPARED BY:
1 DON PAUL SHEARER, CRI, REALTOR l
Real Estate Appraiser / Consultant Chairman, Community, Legislative, & Political Affairs Committee AND 1
THE REALTORS TMI IMPACT STUDY COMMITTEE OF.THE GREATER HARRISBURG BOARD OF REALTORS Don Paul Shearer, Chairman William T. Bitner John R. Detweiler Donald C. Kauffman Ruth Myers K. Jesse Reitenbach Charles F. Schubert, Sr.
Delton C. Bushey, Board President March 27, 1980 o
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PURPOSE AND FUNCTION OF THIS REPORT The purpose of this Community Impact Study is to conduct an investi-gation and study of the effect(s), if any, that the nuclear accident at the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant on the Susquehanna River between the Borough of Middletown in Dauphin County, Pennsylvania and the Borough of Goldsboro in York County, Pennsylvania, on March 28, 1979, had on the general real estate market within the 20-mile radius of the nuclear plant and specifically within the 5-mile radius; the 10-mile radius; the 15-mile radius; und the 20-mile radius as a whole.
Particular emphasis is given to the effect(s),
if any, cf.a t the
^
nuclear accident and its aftermath had upon general real estate values; the general marketing time of properties for sale and sold; and the volume 1
of both total units of real property sold and total dollars of sales volumes during 1979 as compared to 1978 for the same areas.
The function of this Report is for use by the Greater Harrisburg Board of REALTORS and the general community in their common interests in knowing of what effect(s), if any, the nuclear accident and its aftermath had upon the general real estate market in the area within the 20-mile radius of Three Mile Island comprising part of Cumberland, Dauphin, Lancaster, and York Counties.
4 - _ _
D.
9 SCOPE OF ANALYSIS AND INVESTIGATION FOR THIS REPORT
.O This Report has'been completed under the direction.and work of the Community, Legislative, and Political Af fairs Committee of the Greater Harrisburg Board of REALTORS and the Committee Chairman, Don Paul Shearer.
The Community Impact Study has been completed in particular response to a study completed and published by the Department of Community Affairs and issued by said Department through the Governor's Commission on Three Mile Island under the direction of Pennsylvania Lieutenant Covernor William Scranton II and a subsequent news release which concluded that "real estate values were adversely affected by the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island and its aftermath."
D The Department of Community Affairs used, as data for its Impact Study, statistics from Realty Transfer Taxes in counties surrounding Three Mile Island and from " sales" compiled and handled by members of Central Penn Multi-List Inc., a private real estate multiple listing service, serving the Southcentral Pennsylvania area and particularly the 20-mile radius of Three Mile Island which comprises the Greater Harrisburg marketing area.
The scope of the study herein has included the Realty Transfer Taxes of Cumberland, Dauphin Lancaster, and York Counties for 1978 and 1979; records of Central Penn Multi-List Inc.; a survey of area real estate agencies within the 20-mile radius as to their respective volume of units sold, and total dollars sold, and general marketing time for listings and sales for 1978 and 1979.
I The final conclusions,.as determined in this Report, are based largely Scope of Analysis and Investigation for this Report Page 2 (continued) on the records of Central Penn Multi-List Inc. because these statistics best represent the total volume'of general real estate business in the Impact' Area.
It should be pointed out that there are particular problems with the use of realty transfer tax records as a criteria for determining the general overall condition of this real estate market for the following reasons:
1.
Realty Transfer Taxes are paid only upon conveyance of a deed for any specific parcel of land in Pennsylvania I
and therefore do not reflect any sales of land through p'rivate financing via Installment Land Sales Contracts or for sales of real property on leased land.
There are significant parts of the Borough of Middletown.
which are within the 5-mile radius, that have leased ~.,
land sales of residential properties which, when sold,'
are not subject to realty transfer taxes.
2.
During the last two quarters of 1979, many properties within the 20-mile radius were sold subject to the Seller (s) financing the sale.
There was a higher level of these sales than normal due to the severe shortage of mortgage money and high interest rates during this time period.
Thus, since these sales are not subject to tranr>fer taxes, these sales would not be reflected by the transfer tax and deed records of any particular county.
Only upon conveyance of a deed will these properties be reflected by the realty transfer tax records.
These sales, if handled by area real estate agencies who belong to Central Penn Multi-List Inc., would be included in the Central Penn Multi-l l
List records as reported herein.
A large majority of the residential real estate agencies within the 20-mile radius of TMI belong to Central Penn Multi-List Inc.
However, the Central Penn Multi-List records do not include private i
sales of real property by Owners themselves or by sales involving real estate agencies who do not belong to Central Penn Multi-List Inc.
dcope or Analysis and Investigation for this Report Page 3 i
(continued) 1 l
Thus, the Central Penn Multi-List records, although being the best representative of total real property sales, still represent less than all of the sales that obviously occurred during both 1978 and 1979 as reported herein.
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Another scope of analysis for this Study and Report included a E
I general survey of area REALTORS with particular emphasis upon those real estate agencies who have their principal offices in Middletown, Dauphin a
County and Newberry Township, York County and who claim to do 80% or more of their business within the 5-mile radius of Three Mile Island.
Included
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in this Report are comparisons for the agencies within the 5-mile radius for 1978 and 1979 of volume of sales for units sold and total volume of n
dollars as well as marketing time for properties sold and average listing price and sales price for both 1978 and 1979.
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- HARKET ANALYSIS OF SOLD / SETTLED PROPERTIES (1978 & 1979)
(Entire United States)
T All Figures Seasonally Adjusted YEAR TOTAL UNITS DOLLAR AMOUNT AVERAGE SOLD (Quarter)
SOLD SOLD PRICE SOLD 1st Quarter,1978 11,150,000 million
$563.3 million
$50,900.00 2nd Quarter,1978 11,510,000 million
$629.4 million
$54,500.00 3rd Quarter,1978 11,680,000 million
$679.4 million
$57,233.00 4th Quarter,1978 11,990,000 million
$711.3 million
$57,600.00 TOTALS FOR 1978:
46,330,000 million
$2,583.4 billion
$55,500.00 q..
1st Quarter,-1979 11,120,000 million
$671.2 million
$60,366.00 2nd Quarter,1979 11,190,000 million
$719.0 million
$64,266.00 3rd Quarter,1979 11,440,000 million
$759.2 million
$66,366.00 4th Quarter,1979 10,670,000 million
$693.6 million
$65,000.00 TOTALS FOR 1979 '
44,420,000 million
$2,543.0 billion
$64,200.00 COMPARISON BETWEEN 1978 and 1979 SETTLED PROPERTY SALES 1978 1979 TOTAL NUMBER SOLD:
46,330 million 44,420 million 3
TOTAL DOLLARS AMOUNT:
$2,583.4 billion
$2,543.0 billion 1978 1979 AVERAGE SOLD PRICE:
$55,500.00
$64,200.00 1
SOURCE:
Economics & Research Division, National Association of REALTORS, Chicago, Illinois i
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RESIDENTIAL SALES BY QUARTERS:
COMPARISON 1978 to 1979
_SECOND QUARTER THIRD QUARTER 1978 1979 Change 1978 1979 Change Number Sold I
0-5 Mile Radius:
64 53
-17.2 41 48 17.1 t
j Total 20 Mile Radius: 1,020 1,075 5.4 1,165 1,140
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Sold Price Average i
0-5 Mile Radius:
38,460 38,735 0.7 34,012 40,686 19.6 i
Total 20 Mile Radius: 42,751 46,903 9.7 i
44,114 49,573 12.4 l
Days on Market Average 0-5 Mile Radius:
71.0 93.4 31.5 65.6 59.6
-9 Total 20 Mile Radius: 81.6 82.7
+1.3 73.5 73.5 0
Source: Central Penn Mult-List, Inc.
1 NOTE:
This data was included as Table 27 in the Three Mile Island Soc Impact Study prepared by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, dated December, 1979.
1 1
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4 RESIDENTIAL SALES BY MONTH i
MAY JUNE JULY Z
1978 1979 Change 1978 1979 Change 1978 1979
_ Change 0-5 Mile Radius Sales 42 28
-33 63 41
-35 49 12
-75 Average Value 32,599 34,154-4.8 35,526 34,694
-2.3 34,532 35,587 3.1 5-10 Mile Radius Sales 123 136 10.5 185 161
-13 141 86
-39 Average Value 37,927 44,640 17.7 44,988 47,438 5.4 42,291 46,985 11.1 10-15 Mile Radius Sales 558 512
-8.2 679 614
-9.5 709 540
-23.8 Average Value 36,571 40,139 9.8 35,343 41,828 18.3 39,396 40,099 1.8 15-20 Mile Radius 3 Sales 249 210
-15.7 276 239
-16.7 235 185
-21.3 Average Value 34,450 44,857 30.2 36,482 41,328 13.3 34,957 40,645 16.3 Source:
State Tax Equalization Board; Assessor's Office.
NOTE:
This data was included as Table 25 in the Three Mile Island Socio-Economic Impact Study prepared by the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, dated December, 1979.
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SUMMARY
OF BUSINESS FOR REAL ESTATE AGENCIES (Within 5-Mile Radius)
A summary of the business for real estate agencies, doing their primary business within the 5-mile radius, indicates an overall increase in total volume of sales and total volume of dollars for properties sold and settled from 1978 to 1979.
Due to the natural high degree of confidentiality of these individual records, the individual offices are not included here.
However, a combined total of specific figures from 2 of these 3 principal offices shows an increase during the first quarter in both units sold / settled and total dollar volume; second quarter total tinits sold were down by 15% but total dollar volume was up by 5%; third quarter total units were down by 18.6% and total dollar volume was down by 9.7%; fourth quarter total units was up 18.6% and total dollar volume was up by 29.9%.
The average marketing time for properties sold / settled were, as follows:
1st quarter Down 2nd quarter Up 3rd quarter Down 4th quarter Down The average marketing time for 1978 and 1979 for these offices were, 1
as follows:
1978 72 days 1979 78 days
O
'1 RESPONSE TO DEPARTMENT OF COMMUNITY AFFAIRS REPORT (Commonwealth of Pennsylvania) q In the' opinion of the Committee herein, there are vastly inconclusive,
. inept, and poorly chosen conclusions reached in the Socio-Economic Impact Study.regarding the impact of TMI and its aftermath upon the real estate market surrounding TMI.
First, it is quite obvious that DCA did not fully comprehend and understand the statistics provided by Central Penn Multi-List Inc. in that
" units sold" reported through Central Penn Multi-List Inc. actually means l
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" units settled" and the reporting of residential sales for May,' June and July for both 1978 and 1979 through the realty transfer taxes do not include private installment sales or leasehold land sales.
I Furthermore, many of the conclusions reached by DCA are totally 1
inconsistent with the statistical data reported in the same report.
After full analysis, consideration, and verification of.all data l
contained in the DCA report and those contained herein, it is the opinion of the Committee herein that DCA, the Governor's Commission on Three Mile Island, and the Lieutenant Governor's Office should update and revise their conclusions to insure that the true picture of what immediate impact TMI had upon real estate sales, values, and marketing time is presented to the public.
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1 1
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SUMMARY
OF ANALYSIS AND FINAL CONCLUSIONS The national statistics for real estate sales as reported herein by the National Association of REALTORS indicate that total units sold /
settled were down for all four quarters of 1979 over the same periods in 1978.
Also, the total dollar volume of properties sold / settled increased in all quarters except the 4th quarter in 1979 from 1978 and the average sales price of all properties sold / settled increased during each quarter of 1979 when compared by each respective quarter in 1978.
o The average price for all properties sold./ settled in 1978 nationally is reported to be $55,500 as compared to $64,200 for 1979.
3 The total numbers of units sold / settled from the Central Penn Multi-1 List Inc. statistics indicate an increase of 6.2% in 1979 over 1978 and an increase of 16.1% in the total volume of dollars for properties sold /
settled for 1979 over 1978.
The general marketing time for properties sold /
settled increased from 79 days on the market in 1978 to 84 days on the market in 1979.
During the third quarter of 1979, total units sold / settled decreased 2.1% while the total volume of dollars for properties sold / settled still increased by 10%. All real estate agencies in the TMI Impact Area indicated an almost dormant activity in real estate during the 3 to 4 weeks immediately after the accident.
Thus, even with an approximate 30-day period of limited activity in listings and sales, the total number of units sold / settled in the third quarter decreased only 2.1% and then decreased only 1.2% for the 4th quarter of 1979 when there was vireually "little or no mortgage money 5
available and at record high interest rates when and where available.
The average listed price for properties sold / settled in 1978, as reported through Central Penn Multi-List inc., was $44,991 as compared,to an average sold / settled price of $42;948 or 95.5% ratio of sales price to listing price.
The 1979 average listed price for properties sold /
settled was $48,954 as compared to an average sold settled price of $46,563 or a ratio of sales price to listing price of 95.1%.
The average sold / settled price in 1979, as reported by Central Penn Multi-List members was 8.4% above the 1978 average sold / settled price as compared to a 15.7% increase nationally.
As reported herein and by DCA in its report, third quarter sold /
settled in the 0-5 mile radius increased from 41 units in 1978 to 48 units e
in 1979 or a 17.1% increase while the average sales price increased by 19.6% with a decrease in marketing time of 9 days average.
The total 20-mile radius sold / settled number decreased by 2.1%
from 1978 to 1979 while the average sales / settled price increased 12.4%.
In conclusion, af ter a full and thorough analysis of all available and pertinent market data, it is quite clear that the March 28, 1979 nuclear accident had no immediate impact during any part of 1979 or the year as a whole as to real estate sales, values, or general marketing time because, despite the mortgage crunch, high interest rates, the gasoline shortage and increased prices in gasoline, the real estate market in the 20-mile radius of TMI held up better than did the national market as a whole.
There was no substantial increase on properties "on the market" during any part of 1979 after the TMI accident including the 0-5 mile radius.
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BROKER OFFICE ROSTER 0010 CHARLIS AIK.1R & $0k. WC..
. 238-0441 BRANCH Om G......
. 687 1300 BRANCH Omm.....
.. 462 4018 c506 3. Fore R.
17 tid senosan Strew 4401 Lagensen Rd.
Hammews. Ps.17110 M*Ch8n8C8t 8AANCH 0m"#g. Ps.17D56 Hamstwg. Pa.17112 3RANCM on a
. 737 0531 2....
.. 58241M SMACM 0mm.....
.. 7834N7 3200 Trridts Rd 8"11 W M8" 34r'st 1500 Casa Catt Dews c,np pp, Pa.17p11 hee bloemessi. Pt 170es Came Ms, Pt 17011 3RANCM 0 m 2.....
..$ 4 5400 00bo C W D(TWULIR. INC. REALTop*
,. 701 1910 0043 MORTON HIR$H. WC..
. 2321M5 1223 E. Occznets Am 3310 Marts St.
2301 hertn Front Street Mersher. Ps 17033 Cens Hm. Ps 1701g Hwrunwrg. Pt.17110 002$ GENT AL&aA0 RIAL ESTAft
. 781 4 770 SRANCH DmG
. 836 9874 Ws3 HOWL HOOK! 4 Lf30 RIALTORS*.
. 243m 3a05 Mstst Street 546 second St.
322 kne Manater Street Cano Hm. Ps t7011 Hghapers. Ps.17tD4 CMlem. Ps.17013 3a27 AM E RICAN Rt.ALTY GROUP, INC.............. 737 8335 BRAACM OmCE....
. 432 7290 0023 600 JONES Rf.AL ESTATE..
. 652402 Euas 201. 336N. Its St.. Camp HE. PL 17011 5403 Amestoon Rd 7000 Aansown 34 SRAACHOm W.
.2364440 Herstes. Pa.17112 Hamstw3. PL 17112 1941 A Martal St., Havuows. Pt.17103 BRANCH OmCE............
. 8874 587 0058 JOHN M. KRlfGER R[A(($TATI.
.. 793 1983 DRAA CH OmCf................... t.... 781 7044 Madsor Pett $homne Carner 321hemel Avenue Saco Trinde Rd. Cana Me. Ps.17011 Mechenaceurs. Ps.17055 Lameros. Ps.17043 BRANCH Om M....................
.. 781 4 300 Oc08 THOMAS J. D'ANGELO REAL ESTATI
. 774.T7t1 0087 C. A. LIO REAL E$TAft
. 75110E2 3a06 Maw St.. Cane Ms. Pt.17011 714 Ba8 4 Swast 1104 8*reweed Amus 9
BRANCH O m G......................... 533-3000 hee Cumberland. Pa.17070 Cens 4. Ps.17011 1135 E. Chocesses Ave.. Hershey. Ps.17033 0082 DERRY REALTY CO..
. 53S ?144 0033 JOSEPH WC GRAW
..... 737.M 18 s
STANCH Om 2
. 338-1811 106 W. Chocolas Avenue 3rd & Manst $treets R. 0 3. Leweberry, Ps 17310 Henhey Ps.17033 SRANCHOF Q...
Larnorns. Pa.17043 O 5401.kmasteem Ad.. He*m6wg, Pa 17112............ 452-4300 0000 DOUGHERTY & TWIGG. WC.
. 761 1800 0053 Owth4ROSS WC. PARTNERS
.. 442 4088 15t3 Code Catt Dr.
3835 Womit Street 53?8 BALDEASTON REAL ESTAft
. 737-3445 Camp Mt. Pa 17011 Hamnews. Pa.17100
( 2800 Martei Strast BRANCH OU Q
. 564 7370 0072 POTT $ RIAL ($ FATE,
.. 432 4414/196 2231 Camp He Pt 17011 4307 Deny St 315. Sammers Strast
$8 DAN SARNiw0ER 4 Atwiaits
, 733 1500 Hansburg. Ps.17111 08tstus. Pt 17019 3335 Matat Street
$4ANCH 0 m CE
. ($2 3731 SRA#CM om E...
..N14106 Camp MW. Ps.17011 3d20 *ssiut St.
2010 Martsi Street
!a70 wM. T. trrN(R & atwaTES. MC.
. 944 0404 Hams 6urg, Pa 17109 Camp MR.Pa 17011 156 0;o@ Orissa Street SRANCM DM Q....
. 706 & S2 0063 L. 5. Pulffl RIAL ESTATE
. 887 1108 Middhspen. Pa 17057 2 E. Mndme HW Rd.
67t$ber $ arm 0 Road ast L w. sa00isCM.
. s74sa5 Mechamesows. Ps.17055 Mecnencews. Pa.17055 R. D. #1. Ben 188 0068 J0f M [8Y REAL ESTATI
. 534-2505 0045 REALTY woRLD COSM6C REAL ESTATI, sec.
.h-hewtiort. Pa 17074 134 w mocouna Avenue 2231 N Froni Street 0$4 820WWST0mf REAL 15taff
. 533 6222 Hershey, Pa 17033 Hamshw3. Ps.17110 1106 Cocos A enue 00f.5 R. J HutD. WC....
. 452 5100 BRANOi OmG.
. 73747t1 Hershey. Ps 17033 4400 Lapesteen Rd.
19044 Martat St.
930 GNTU%Y 21 Grenaman & Assoc.
. 761 5494 Harraticrg. Pt t1112 Camp NE. Ps 17011 FC) Cartano Pika 0070 JACK CAUGMEN REALTome
. 761 4000 0055 REALTY woRLD CUWetRLAND COUWTY Mecherucabeg Ps.17055 3800 Marta St REALTY CD.. mC..
. J4S4111487 M71 BRANCMON G....
. 432 4 702 Camp He, Pa 17011 5724 Cartais Pike 103 Sc.e nestimors St BRANCM 04Q
. 81219c0 Mechwacators. Pa.17056 Duisburg. Pa 17010 4620 5ftchey St.
BRANCM 04 4..
. 243 3011 BRANCHOF'Q.....
. 457 2722 Harrsteg. Ps.17100 25 w. Men Stred 5301 Jones. we Road BRANCH OR G
. 697.a6t1 Carlses. Ps.17013 Harrisburg Ps.17112 2 Pmstres Dr.
0082 REALTY woRLD SPFJ HENSEL REALTDR.,. 753182$
$35 CEMTEY 21 Kari Canm Raamy.
. 70'3501 Mecmanacsburg La.17015 44074 Cartsis Pha 2145 Mutat Street SRANCH O m M....
. 2414040 Camp Ms. Pa. I1011 fwns M41. Ps.17011 1084 Har staurg Pike 0045 ROTHMAN 6 &CHUBERT RLAL ESTATE. BsC... 7631212 175 CE%fuAY 21 Momsanours
. 737 4444 Cats 6e. Ps t7c13 1M0 Mets Street 1705 Maast St.
DRANCH Om m...
. 53413Gt Camp NE. Pt.17011 Lanerne. Ps.17043 545 w. Choesse As.
SRANCH O m W...
.0672N0 384 MX?VRY 21 Ray J. Marnaz Assoc.. Inc,,.. 70s.c773 Hanhey. Ps.17033 3453 Wesen 1kreet 63 W. Mari Street 0000 JOHN GUS(, WC. R(ALTOR*..
. 731 4070 Harrubwg. Pa.17100 Mechenacaburg. Ps t7055 3000 Martal St.
0004 THOMPSON.WOOO REAL ESTATE. WC...... 781 4353 04 COLONLAL REALTY
. 246 7704706 2320 Camp Ms. Ps 17011 3813 Margat Strad 154 ti. Hanover Street BRANCH OmCE
. 763 1213 Camp Ms. Pt.17011 Caqa. Ps 1413 Cedar Clm Mafi 0069 VAU.fY G8EEN REAL ESTATE.
..... 835 1481 ss7 Cor t:C CDwk REAL ($TAft.
. 78) 5673 Camp Ms. Pa 17011 R C. #1 4??0 Carum Paa BRANCH OmCE
. 564 7300 f tters. Ps.17318 Camp Ms. Ps I1011 4079 Derry St.
0090 MARY L VAM00dtuRGH ASSOCIATIS......... 54!4747 67 JottPM CustRAN REAL (STATI
,.545.ce26 Hemsburg. Ps.17111 3718 wahmA atreet 4001rudy Road 0000 GRAN00N REAL (STAft. WC.
. 781 8770 Hamysert. Ps.17100 Harraburg. Pa 17100 3915 Cartsas Pts (095 M.C. WAJJA.ItEALTY
. 687 6487 O STUARD 0(RRICK REAL (STATE. WC.
. M14640 Camp Hm. Ps 17011 V Aue wwwA Stros 3030 ka w st.
DRANCH OmCE..
..es7.4s73 Mechnecsture. Pt 17 ass Camp Ha Pa 17011 88mCH OmCE....
601i Sanpson St.
0007 N#3 WD00 REAL ESTATE.....
...... 657 122
. 452 4800 Me:hamesburg. Ps 17065 4301 Lacust Lees 1500 AAernown SW BRANCH OH Q
.24640e0 Harrishws. Pt.17 00 Mamsburg. Pa 17112 4Irwe how SRANCH CHQ.
. 53412m Car 6sas. Ps.17013 320 W. mecome Amas Mw16 hey.Ps 17033 pILY. V.te2 C35ffMAL P98L
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