ML20212D822
| ML20212D822 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 08/20/1986 |
| From: | Ibrahim A NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY & SAFEGUARDS (NMSS) |
| To: | Neuder S NRC |
| References | |
| REF-WM-1 NUDOCS 8701050050 | |
| Download: ML20212D822 (2) | |
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_y[f JTrapp AUG 2 01986 Albrahim & r/f PDR MEMORANDUM FOR: Stan Neuder FROM: Abou-Bark Ibrahim
SUBJECT:
EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION PP0GRffi IN THE USA The Urited State Geologic Surycy (USGS) is the main organization in the U.S.
dealing with earthquake prediction. A large sum of the USGS budget is allocated to earthquake prediction.
In 1977 the International Earthquake Hazard Act was established erd earthquake prediction fornally started.
There are a long tern and a short term prediction programs at the USGS. Sorte of these programs are:
One of the research activities is to search the earthquake seisnic records and identify events which had occurred in a particular area. The rate of earthquake recurrence in this area can provide information about the earthquake cycle. This cycle indicates the approximate time span over which an earthquake nay recccur in the future.
Trenching across faults looking for previous movement. Identifying the different displecerents across the fault and estimating the ages of these movements can provide a mean for predicting the next earthouake to occur in the vicinity of the fault.
By experimenting in the lab, theories can be develcred recarding rock fractures and rock bchavior under different rate of stresses. From such experinents, earthquake mechanism will be understcrd and prediction can be made.
One of the main study for earthquake prediction is being conducted new in Parkfield, California. The USGS is predictino an earthquake of magnitude 6-6.5 in 1988 in this crea. This is based on historic records which indicate 22 years earthquake cycle. The last large earthquake in Parkfield was in 1966. The Parkfield crea is now being studied thoroughly and all infornation need for earthourke prediction is being collected.
Induced seismicity is a mean of predicting earthquake. For example by injection of waste or withdrawal of fluids carthquakes can be generated and prediction can be forecasted.
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AI/86/08/19 There is a cooperative program between Japan, China and the USA. Every two years there is a formal meeting betveen the Japanese scientists and US scientists to discuss the status of precress on earthquake prediction and state-of-the-art of new methedology applicable to earthquake prediction. Also there is an exchange visitor program for a week to a renth between the US and Japan.
Between Chira and the US there is a protocol working relationship. The US and China are cooperating on 13 separate projects dealing with earthquake prediction. The major focus of the earthquake prediction program is focused on the northern cnd southern part of China. Recently the USGS installed a digital instrument for detecting earthquakes in China.
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