ML20209D181

Northwest Us Subduction Zone Seismic Risk Assessment

ML20209D181
Person / Time
Site:	Satsop
Issue date:	10/01/1984
From:	INTERIOR, DEPT. OF, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
To:	NRC
Shared Package
ML19272A695	List: ML20209D177 ML20209D181 ML20209D186 ML20209D192
References
CON-WNP-1351 NUDOCS 8407240604
Download: ML20209D181 (20)

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Nort.5es'ftr.S. Subduction Zene 4 .

Sais:: tic Risk Assass ant -

Fre;:esal ts U.S.G.S. researds cr grz=.for the U.'S.9.?..C.

Freject Chief: Themas H. Hetten U.S.G.S., Sais=ciogy Branch Calif. Inst. Tech.

Pasadena, CA 91125 FT5 759-0257 Cccmarcial 213-355-6222 FuncGg j:erted: 01 Octcher 1982 t: 01 Oct:i:er 1924 g e ,

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1) Stats. ment of Preblem i

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Despite the fact that there is g:cd evidence of present day c:n-vergencs of the Juan de Fuca and North America.n platas, thers has been remart ably little historic seismic activity alcng the shallcw part of .  ;

the Juan de Fuca subducticti i:ne. Althcugh it is icpessible to rule

' cut the possibility ef aseisiiric creep, we find that the Juan de Fuca '

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subduction zone shares many features with other subducticn :enes which both have been 1cekW and- have experiencad great earthquakes (Heat:n .

and Xanameri,190; icc.;1uded as an appendix). ,We propese to study the possibTe scurca charactaristics and ensuing str:ng ground =cticns and Tsunami ha:ards for hypothetical great shaI1cw subducticn ::ne earthquakes off the c:ast,cf Washingten and Orugen.

Tne first phase =f the study will define the gecme y and dimen-siens of potential rupture area'r.-- We wili also acta =pt to chahetarize the naturs cf rupture hetaregeneity which can 'he expectad. In the '

sec:nd phase, we will estimata the natue of ground metiens which may result by c:mparing the northwestarn U.S. with other subducticn :enes fcr which strong metien rec:rds are available. In the third phase, we will synthesi:e ground :nctions fer hypothetical great earthcuakes by stcaing the respensas of individual seg=ents of the pr pesad rupture sur'sca. The responses of individual seg=ents will be approxi=ated both by actual recordings of mcderata-si:ed earthquakes and also by numerical calculation of the theoretical response of layered c ustal s: ucture 4 (:cint, dislocations. ~

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2) Ime=rtanca of the Pr:blem ts Freeram Goals u .

This resear:h is directly motivated by the licensing precadure for the Washington Public Pcwer Supply System System Nuclear Freject No. 3 located at satsop, Washingt:n. The possibility cf large shallow subduc- .

tien zona earthquakes was excluded in the design phase of this facility. -

However, new study of the nature of the Juan de Fuca subduction ::ne indicatas that such events may be possible. E3timates of ground shaking fr:m large subduction zones earthquakes are of central importance in the licensing review of this plant. Furthemers, due to the nature of this probles, this research is relevant ts earthquake ha:ard estimatien thr: ugh-cut the entira western parts of 'dashingt:n and Ortgen.

This includes the cur tr.tly operating Trojan nuclear plant in Oregen.

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Work on this project f'a]1s naturally into three catsscries.

In this phase of the work we will

CharactaH:ation of the seures  ;:

- c:nstruct models of the feasible ructura parametars of shallcw thrust F We will include para- I earthquakas on the Juan de Fuca subduction : ne.

metars such as fault length, fault dip, fault width, average stress Constraints on these parameters will drop, and rupture hetaregeneity.

That is we will be investigated by studying other subduction :cnes. J asstme that rupture characta-jstics of Juan de FucaJsubductica :ene events will be similar to ruptura characteHstics seen for other subduc-  !

Physical charactaristics tien :enes with similar physical charactaHstics.

which will be cc= pared are; ari~df subducted lithesphers, r:tc cf con .

vergenca, fault dip, tcpegraphy of the subducted plata, gec=etry of the accretionary wedce, nature of marine tarracas, and tamporal and spatial There are gecd reascns to suspect that these pattert; of seismicity.

physical charactaristics art clcssly related to the rupture parametars of shdlew subduction earthquakas (sas accoganing paper by lienten and Kanascri). If subduction :cnes with similar physical charactaristics can be found, then the nature of rupture hataregeneity for events en tiese :enes will be charadri:nd by stWing the taleseismic body wave radiation from these events.

F.arthquaka recurrenca ratas will be esti=ated using esti=atas of the f plata convergenca rata t:ssther with esti= stas of recture dimensiens.

We will use several precadures F.stimation of streno creund metiens

[ The first precadure is described by ts estimata streng ground motion.

Heaten et al. (1983). ' In this precadun a suita of str:ng motien rec rds i

is c:nst:'ucted by collecting and scaling records taken at sitas with simi-Rec:rds are scaled with "r'espect ts sita distanca, lar tec'.cnic c=nditions. Newever, it is desirabl e to ecliect earthquake size, and sita c:nditions.

Once a scaled suita records which require as little scaling as po'ssible.

cf records has been c:nstructad, we can calculata the statistical mean, M

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1 medicn, standard deviation, etc. Of varicus str:ng motion parametars.'"

An example of this pr:cedure is given in Table 1. In this exa=ple, records fr:m strike-slip earthquakes have been scaled to a distance of 50 k:n and earthquake magnitude of 65.* Recor'ds were chosen so that little scaling was necessary. The suita' of scaled response spectra is shewn in Figure 1. The average spectrum, average plus one standard devi,a*'en spectrum, spectr.:n of the largest single rec:rd, and the spectr.:n which envelops all others are '

shown in Figure 2. Although the scatter may seem large, it is an ac:urata representation of the range of moticns that have been observed at 50 km fr:m magnitude Si stM ke-slip earthquakes. 1 This same pr:cedure will be applied to c:nstruct suites of str:ng 4 tica reemeds fr:m subducticn zenes. These rec:rds are principally fr:m Japan.

In Figure 3 we shew a c:=parison of ;eak ac:elerstien plotted as a ,

functicn of distanca,and magnitude, for gr und =ctions rec:rded in Japan and 1 the western U. S. We see that magnitude and distance scaling relatienships 1 seem to.be similar in Japan and the western, U.S. We aisc see that there is sufficient data to simulate subducticn :ene earthquakes with =agnitudes un to ateut 71, provided that the distanca is greater than 50 km. Hewevar fer larger earthquakes and smaller scur:e distances, the precedure desc-ibed abcVe is not appropriata. ~

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Althcugh no rec rds are available for earthquakes of M . 8, we can =ake '

synthetic gr und metiens by sumning ree:rds fr:m ir. aller earthquakes. This type of sunnation has been used with reascnable sue:ess by Hart: ell (1978) and Xanameri (ilg79) en large stMke-slip earcquakes. The technique has ~

aisc been used by Heat:n and also Xanaccri to simuTate gr:und motions f:r \

, subducticn :ene earcquakes for use by Exzen Pr: duction '4esearch Co. '

The basic assumptien in the synthesis pr:cedure is that the motions f =::

a large earthquake are a linear sum of the motions fran smaller earth.cuakes. .

Encugh smaller enrthquakes' are suced so that the sum cf the saismic moments \

cf the s= aller events equals the mcment cf the large event. Timing delays due to rupture and tnval time denlys are included in the sumaticn pr:cass.

The details of the timing assu=ptions in this sumatien pr: cess can, h wever, affect the nature of the final product. In cr' der to disc:ver accrocriate timing assu=:tiens, we will alse c:nstruct synthetic taleseismic bcdy waves

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foi great earthquakes by suming bcdy waves fr:m smaller events. We 'will

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require that our medals which produce str:ng ections also pr: vide an adNuate characterization of observed teleseismic body waves.

We will also investigate the feasibility of using the theoretical re-

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spcases of point dis,1ccatien- squrces as Green's functions for three-dimen-sicnal finite fault simulatiens of very large earthquakes. This technique -

, may be useful if observed recsrds are not available at desired scur:n-station geometries.

Such Green's functions wculd be calculated assuming a hori::ntally-layered earth structure.

The Green's functions would then be integrated over the fault surface in. crder to produce mc 4cns due to a finita rupture surfaca.

These techniques have been used with c:nsiderable su::ess t:

medal rec =rds fr:m moderata-si:ed earthquakes (Heat:n,1952; Hart:all and Heimberger,193?i Ha.- :all and Hest:n,1983).

Evaluatien cf Tsunami ha:a[ In order t: ebtain a' r: ugh esti= ate cf the ha:ard due to local Tsunamis which may be generated by a great shallcw subductica ::ne event, we will search fer subducticn :enes with ecean bott:m pr: files and scur e gecmetries similar ts that fcund in the Juan de Fuca subduction :ene. Local Tsunamis generated' by hist:ric aarthquakes in these other regicas will be catalegued. These Tsunamis will then be scaled t=

ac::unt fer differences in seismic =ci::ent ts c:me up with estimatas of the

ctanthI heights of T'sunamis that mignt be expected alcng the c

ast of Washingt:n, Gregen, and British Columbia.

t) Strateev and ti=etable Although the felicwing work plan may evcive as we pr:ceed i,na this pr ject, we pr= pose the felicwing tasks and ac::=;anying thetable.

Task I Charactari:stien of scur:e sec=etry. In this task, we c:= pile physical characteristics of the Juan de Fuca subducticn :ene.

Much of this backgr:und work has been dene in the Final Safety Analysis Report of the WpFS3 Nuclear.projert Hu=ter 3 (Oct:bar 1983) 6 -

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_ Task II Ccmparisen with other subduction :enes.

This will be primaH1y a literature search c mbined with intarviews of + o

• kncwledgeisle c Tleagues.

Cataleguing of physical features-shculd allcw us t:

select these :enes with similar charac-teristics (Oct:bar-Nevember

. -% 1983). -

Task III .-

Estimate source diiniensions itnd gecmetry of shallew Juan de Fuca subduction :ene event. Models of source seemetry and 1

si:e will be c:nstructad (Nevember 1953).

Iask IV - . - ,-

Characteri:e rupture hetartgeneity.

This task ventures int:

an area net yet ,,, studied.

We intend t: cellect talesais-mic time functiens fer large subducticn ::ne events and t:

charactarire the ecughness of the time func:icns (Oecamber 1983 - SpMng 1954). ~~~

Task V _

C:nstruct suitas of scaled strcng gr:und =ctions. Catalegues of streng metica rec:rds will* be saarched :

find rec =rds "

which may be similar to these expected fr:m a Juan de Fuca subduction :ene event. (January - March,1984).

Task'VI Construct synthetic streng motien rec:rds by su:::::ing rec rds fr:m s:naller events.

Medals will be checked for c:nsistancy with teleseismic rec =rdings of cther great subduction : ne events (Spring 1954).

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Task VII .

t Estimate local Tsunami ha:ard. A catalegue of local Tsunamis with scurce gecmetrics and cesan bett:m pr: files similar 'a the Juan de Fuca subduction :=ne will be c:nstructad. Tsunami heights will then be scaled using the resuits cf Task III ,

(Su.mer 1954). -

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5) Lecatien of crecesad work ..

This project will be con $ucted at the Pasadena, California, field office of the Office of Earthquakes, Volcances, and Engineering USGS.

This office f.s 1ccata'd,.cn s the campus of the Califcenia Institute

• of Technology. .

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Other c=mnitments or anticicated difficulties that will affect cree or c:moletion of the crofect _

Most c:mputer c des ts manipulate data and c:mpute synthetic ground metiens are written and working. hewever, these c: des must be u; dated.

Further ::cre, we expect ts transfer cur work fr:m the Caltech Prime 750 c:=;utar to a new USGS VAX 11 750 c:h:: uter in the Fall of 1952. Although we he;e that this transitten gces smcethly, there may be . unanticipated delays caused by this.

Digital .ec:rdings of grcund = tiens fr:m subduc-tien ::nes are presently available, but if a larger catalogue bec:mes neces'sary, then esllection of other regcrds may delay cur schedule.

3cth principal i'nvestigatics in this project are also 1/2 time c=ntitted to work in the Seismelegy Branch project entitled, Scuthern California C:cperative Seismic Network Prefect.

Tneir risaarch in this prcject c:very saveral areas, with the eain e.phasis in Pfl984 being re-search ints ;cssible new directicns for seismic networks. Since the Pasadena Field Office is a small office having many.res;cnsibilities, the ociurrence of local emergency situaticns, such as earthcuakes , may affect work schedules en research projects.

7) Pecducts 04/34 Preliminary report en nature of shaking fr:m Juan de Fucs subduction :=ne earthquakes tm the U.S.N.R.C.

10/34 Final repcrt 10/54 Scientific ;a;er en 'the nature of seis=ic ha:ards ass:ciated 1 j

with the Juan de Fuca subductic,n ::ne. '

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$i Nafer facilities and ecuiceent needed The =4jer requirement of this pr:Je:: is c::nputer time. de preseb.:ly purchase c mputer time fr m Ca.1 tech cn a Frice 750 ': mouter. Mc*aever, it appears that a new USGS Vax 11-7,50 c:=: uter will tecme available for cur use in Fall 1983. Thus cur pr:Jected c:mputer c:sts c:ver ex:enses for ~

the Caltech c:mputer which we feel will he necessary during the pr: cess .-

cf c nverting c:mputers. ,

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Ex ected interactien with other erefects and worke-s There will be strong interatice. with Hir:c Xanae:ri at Cal:ach who maintains str:ng interest in the nature of subduction ::ne earthcuakes.

He it. ;rt:ently wcrking on's-imilar studies under a resear:n grant fr:m E:xen Pr:ducti:n Resea,rch C: meany. We also ex:ect interacticn fr:m Ocug Coats of Exxon Pr:ducticn Research C:=:any and C.S. Cr use ,cf Earth Technelegy Cor;cratien. Calteca graudata students, in : articular, Anne Mori, will be enc:uraged t: participate in the research. Due :s the far-ranging i=slicatiens of tnis research, we ex:ect := interac .

frecuently abcut the nature of cur craliminary c:nclusions with research-ers at USGI-Menlo Park, Univ. Of Wasningt:n, USG3-Denver, and the U.S.

N.R.C.

10) Qualificati ns of crinci:al investicat:rs The princi;:al investigators in this project, Weat:n and Mar.: ell, have c:nsiderahle ex erience .in the field of s/n:hesi:ing to n St.Ong ,

meticr.s and teleseismic gr unc meti:ns fr :n c~ lex realistic earthcuake sources. They bo .h also have experience in the :r:blem of su==ing rec rds of smaller eartacuakes t: simulate large enes. Both have ex-perience in the c:nnercial c:nsulting field and Heat:n has c:nsiderable experience in the field of estimating gh:und ==tiens at subduction

enes. A full su:nnary of the qualificaticns of the p~rincipal investiga-

rs is c:ntained in the resu=es included wi:.,'i this pr:pesal .

M.Y. Effer. .unding Reeuest ed

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. References J .

4 Hart: ell,S.H.(1978).

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Gecchvs. Res. Letters, 1-4.Earthqua'ka aftershecks as Green's F

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Hartcall, S.H. and 0.7. Helmberger (1982) .

the Imperial Valley earthquak:e~cf 1979 Streng-motion modeling of ,

571-596. '

',Eull.' Seism. Soc.Am.,3, '

Hartzell, S.H. and T.H. Heaten (1983).

Inversica of streng-ground motion and talassismic waveform data for ura the fault rupt history of the 1979 Imperial Valley, California Soc. Am., in press.

earthquake

, Bull. Seism.

Hesten, T.H. (1982).

Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., H ,The 1971 San 20.37-2052.

Fernando A double event?, earthcua Waten, T.H. , F. Tajima, and A.L Mori (1982)

Estimating grcund metions using recorded accaleregrams, n ma .Escript. .

Heaten, T.H. and H. Xanaccri (1983). -

Jennings, P.C. and H. Xanameri (1983).subdu .

tudes fcund frem strong-motien racerdsEffect of distanca en local magni 1645-1570. , Bull . Sei sm. Sec. A m. ,7_3,,

Kanameri . H. (1979). -

period ground motions from great earthquakes, Bull 69, 1645-1670. . Seism. Soc. Am.,

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Ficure Cactiens Figurs 1. Respcase spectra (3h damped) for heri: ental compenents

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of 15 records frsh stMke-slip earthquakes which are scaled to a dista'nca of 50 km and a magnitude of St.

Records descMption and scaling parameters are given in Table 1. Figure is fr m Heaten et al. (1983).

Figure 2. a) average spectrum, b) average plus one standard de-viation specturm, c) specturs 6f the largest single Necrd, d)'spe.c_trm which envelcpes all c hers; based en spectra shewn in Figurs 1- {taian f cm-Hea:cn at al.-

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Figure 3. Caparison of peak ground accaleraticns recordad in the western U.S. and Jacan. Distance is approximataly the cicsest heri:catal distanca to the rupture. Dashed

- line is the modified local magnitude distanca attanua-tion law of Jennings and Xanameri (1953). Figure is frcs Heaten et ,al. (1983).

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2 3/11/33 long seach 8 6.21 2.28 L.A. Suleway Iers. e.it 12.59 .8F 23. 28.

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12/30/34 L. Callierala 6.23 2.34 e.ll 38.8 3.30 il Centre 6.5 61 20.5 , 22.6 '

4 4 6.34 2.61 10/21/42 8errese Valley El Centre 6.5 e.Il 8.32 1.32 16.8 23.3 46 a 6.34 5 12/21/54 fureka 2.44 e.15 12.2 .ss 6.2 ferndale City llall 6.5 44 5.5 '

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7. 8 F.s p 8 4/9/65 porrege Hla. 6.ca 2.49 e. 45 a.98 Il Centre 6.6 1.23 28.2 24.s j 65 4 6.45 3 10/15/15 leperial Valley Corre Frista 2.65 e.85 8.98 ,I.23 6.4 28.2 24.8 .!

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Resume: Themar H. Heaten .

Title:

Gecphysicist - U. 5. Geolegical Survey Excertise: Seismology [ Ear @ quake Engineering Past Excerience:

1979-1982 - Geophysicis* with U.S. Geological Survey at Caltach office. Stn ng ground motion studies and earthquake prediction studies 1978-1979 - Senior seismologist with Dames and Mccre.

Estimation of earthquake ha: arts for major energy facili-ties.

, Half-time visiting associate at the seis=clogical Laboratory at Caltach with emphasis en st eng ground motion medeling..

ha:ard 1977-1973 studies - Censultant to Dames & Mccre--Seismic 1974-1978 - Censultant to Converse, Davis, Dixcn &

Associatss--Fault ha:ard ~tudies s 0

1974- Converse, Davis, Dixon & Asscciates--Engineer-ing geclogy with e=phasis en fault ha:ard studies PROFESSIONAL Seismological Society of Merican AFFILIATIONS Marican Geophysical Unicn ACADEMIC SACXGROUND Chemistry and physics majer, Satas Cc11 age,1953-1970 3.5. in physics with special interests in mathematics

. and geology, Indiana University, 1972

~

Ph.D. in Gecphysics, mince in Apolied Mechanics, California Instituta of Technoicqy,1978 PUBLICATIONS Alewine, R.W., and T.H. Heaten, Tilts associa*ad with the Pt. Mugu earthquake, Prectedings, Conference on Tectenic Preblems of the San Andress Fault Svs am. Geoiccicai Sciences. XIII, Stanfors Un1 vers 1:y, 94-iO3,1973.

Heaten, T.H., Tidal tbggering of earthquakes, Gecchvs.

_J.R. astr. Soc., 43, 307-325, 1975".

Heaten, T.H. and D.V. Heimberger, Predictability cf streng ground motien in the Imperial Valley: Mcdeling the M4.9, Novecter 4,1975 3rawley earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc.

Am., SS, No. 1, 31-48, 1978.

~

- , - - - - . - - - - - - . . , , - - - - - - , - , , , . - - - - - . - - - - - . . - - - , ---n

, g. . : /

s m >

4 Heatcii, T.H.cand 0.V. Helmt erger, A study of the str:n ground earth motion of the Eccrage Mcuntain, Califernia, -

1977. quake, Bull . Seism. Sec. Am. , 57, No. 2, 315-320

- x ._

• Heaton, T.H., Generali:ed ray models of str:ng gr und '

motion, 300 p., 1978. Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technclog ,

Heaton, T.M. and D.V. Helmberger, Generalized ray me 4

of Ho.

69 the 5,1311-1341,1979.

San Fernando Earthquake, Bull . Seism. Soc. Am ,-

Anderson, J.G. and T.H. Heat:n, Aftershock acceler: g Paper en Oct:bar 1979 Im:erial, 19E0. Valley Earthq Heaten, T.H. , J.G. Anderson, and P.T. Gen.an ,.Greund failure along the'New. River, in precaratien.

windcw theory, Califernia Geolcev, c

, pp12-16.

January Amini, A., K. Mcslem Aftershock ear.hquake sequence, in preparation.

acceler:gr,ams fr:m the May 1950 Ma::=ct Heaten, event? 355A, T.H., The 1971-in Press,1982. San Fernande earthquake; A d:u Heaton,.T. H.,

in Press, 1982. Tidal tHggeMng of earthquakes , 3SSA, Heaten, T.H., F. Tajima, and A.W. M:M , Estimating gr:und motions using recorded ac:eTer: grams, BS5A, submitted.

Liu, H.L. and T.H. Hesten, Array analysis of the ground velocities and accaleratiens fr:m the 1971 San Fernando earthquaka, in preparation.

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