ML20209D181
| ML20209D181 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Satsop |
| Issue date: | 10/01/1984 |
| From: | INTERIOR, DEPT. OF, GEOLOGICAL SURVEY |
| To: | NRC |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19272A695 | List: |
| References | |
| CON-WNP-1351 NUDOCS 8407240604 | |
| Download: ML20209D181 (20) | |
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Nort.5es'ftr.S. Subduction Zene 4
Sais:: tic Risk Assass ant Fre;:esal ts U.S.G.S. researds cr grz=.for the U.'S.9.?..C.
Freject Chief: Themas H. Hetten U.S.G.S., Sais=ciogy Branch Calif. Inst. Tech.
Pasadena, CA 91125 FT5 759-0257 Cccmarcial 213-355-6222 FuncGg j:erted:
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407240604 840716 ADOCH 05000500
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Stats. ment of Preblem i
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Despite the fact that there is g:cd evidence of present day c:n-vergencs of the Juan de Fuca and North America.n platas, thers has been remart ably little historic seismic activity alcng the shallcw part of the Juan de Fuca subducticti i:ne. Althcugh it is icpessible to rule cut the possibility ef aseisiiric creep, we find that the Juan de Fuca
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subduction zone shares many features with other subducticn :enes which both have been 1cekW and-have experiencad great earthquakes (Heat:n and Xanameri,190; icc.;1uded as an appendix).,We propese to study the possibTe scurca charactaristics and ensuing str:ng ground =cticns and Tsunami ha:ards for hypothetical great shaI1cw subducticn ::ne earthquakes off the c:ast,cf Washingten and Orugen.
Tne first phase =f the study will define the gecme y and dimen-siens of potential rupture area'r.-- We wili also acta =pt to chahetarize the naturs cf rupture hetaregeneity which can 'he expectad.
In the sec:nd phase, we will estimata the natue of ground metiens which may result by c:mparing the northwestarn U.S. with other subducticn :enes fcr which strong metien rec:rds are available.
In the third phase, we will synthesi:e ground :nctions fer hypothetical great earthcuakes by stcaing the respensas of individual seg=ents of the pr pesad rupture sur'sca.
The responses of individual seg=ents will be approxi=ated both by actual recordings of mcderata-si:ed earthquakes and also by numerical calculation of the theoretical response of layered c ustal s: ucture 4 (:cint, dislocations.
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Ime=rtanca of the Pr:blem ts Freeram Goals u.
This resear:h is directly motivated by the licensing precadure for the Washington Public Pcwer Supply System System Nuclear Freject No. 3 located at satsop, Washingt:n. The possibility cf large shallow subduc-tien zona earthquakes was excluded in the design phase of this facility.
However, new study of the nature of the Juan de Fuca subduction ::ne indicatas that such events may be possible.
E3timates of ground shaking fr:m large subduction zones earthquakes are of central importance in the licensing review of this plant.
Furthemers, due to the nature of this probles, this research is relevant ts earthquake ha:ard estimatien thr: ugh-cut the entira western parts of 'dashingt:n and Ortgen.
This includes the cur tr.tly operating Trojan nuclear plant in Oregen.
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'l Work on this project f'a]1s naturally into three catsscries.
1.
In this phase of the work we will CharactaH:ation of the seures c:nstruct models of the feasible ructura parametars of shallcw thrust F
We will include para-earthquakas on the Juan de Fuca subduction : ne.
I metars such as fault length, fault dip, fault width, average stress Constraints on these parameters will drop, and rupture hetaregeneity.
That is we will be investigated by studying other subduction :cnes.
J asst e that rupture characta-jstics of Juan de FucaJsubductica :ene m
events will be similar to ruptura characteHstics seen for other subduc-tien :enes with similar physical charactaHstics.
Physical charactaristics which will be cc= pared are; ari~df subducted lithesphers, r:tc cf con.
vergenca, fault dip, tcpegraphy of the subducted plata, gec=etry of the accretionary wedce, nature of marine tarracas, and tamporal and spatial There are gecd reascns to suspect that these pattert; of seismicity.
physical charactaristics art clcssly related to the rupture parametars of shdlew subduction earthquakas (sas accoganing paper by lienten and If subduction :cnes with similar physical charactaristics Kanascri).
can be found, then the nature of rupture hataregeneity for events en tiese :enes will be charadri:nd by stWing the taleseismic body wave radiation from these events.
F.arthquaka recurrenca ratas will be esti=ated using esti=atas of the plata convergenca rata t:ssther with esti= stas of recture dimensiens.
f We will use several precadures F.stimation of streno creund metiens
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The first precadure is described by ts estimata streng ground motion.
Heaten et al. (1983). ' In this precadun a suita of str:ng motien rec rds is c:nst:'ucted by collecting and scaling records taken at sitas with simi-Rec:rds are scaled with "r'espect ts sita distanca, i
lar tec'.cnic c=nditions.
Newever, it is desirabl e to ecliect earthquake size, and sita c:nditions.
Once a scaled suita records which require as little scaling as po'ssible.
cf records has been c:nstructad, we can calculata the statistical mean, M
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y medicn, standard deviation, etc. Of varicus str:ng motion parametars.'"
An example of this pr:cedure is given in Table 1.
In this exa=ple, records fr:m strike-slip earthquakes have been scaled to a distance of 50 k:n and earthquake magnitude of 65.* Recor'ds were chosen so that little scaling was necessary. The suita' of scaled response spectra is shewn in Figure 1.
The average spectrum, average plus one standard devi,a*'en spectrum, spectr.:n of the largest single rec:rd, and the spectr.:n which envelops all others are shown in Figure 2.
Although the scatter may seem large, it is an ac:urata representation of the range of moticns that have been observed at 50 km fr:m 1
magnitude Si stM ke-slip earthquakes.
This same pr:cedure will be applied to c:nstruct suites of str:ng tica reemeds fr:m subducticn zenes.
These rec:rds are principally fr:m 4
Japan.
In Figure 3 we shew a c:=parison of ;eak ac:elerstien plotted as a functicn of distanca,and magnitude, for gr und =ctions rec:rded in Japan and 1
the western U. S.
1 We see that magnitude and distance scaling relatienships seem to.be similar in Japan and the western, U.S.
We aisc see that there is sufficient data to simulate subducticn :ene earthquakes with =agnitudes un to ateut 71, provided that the distanca is greater than 50 km.
Hewevar fer larger earthquakes and smaller scur:e distances, the precedure desc-ibed abcVe is not appropriata.
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Althcugh no rec rds are available for earthquakes of M. 8, we can =ake synthetic gr und metiens by sumning ree:rds fr:m ir. aller earthquakes.
This type of sunnation has been used with reascnable sue:ess by Hart: ell (1978) and Xanameri (ilg79) en large stMke-slip earcquakes.
The technique has
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aisc been used by Heat:n and also Xanaccri to simuTate gr:und motions f:r
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subducticn :ene earcquakes for use by Exzen Pr: duction '4esearch Co.
The basic assumptien in the synthesis pr:cedure is that the motions f =::
a large earthquake are a linear sum of the motions fran smaller earth.cuakes.
Encugh smaller enrthquakes' are suced so that the sum cf the saismic moments
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cf the s= aller events equals the mcment cf the large event.
Timing delays due to rupture and tnval time denlys are included in the sumaticn pr:cass.
The details of the timing assu=ptions in this sumatien pr: cess can, h wever, affect the nature of the final product.
In cr' der to disc:ver accrocriate timing assu=:tiens, we will alse c:nstruct synthetic taleseismic bcdy waves
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foi great earthquakes by suming bcdy waves fr:m smaller events.
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We will require that our medals which produce str:ng ections also pr: vide an adNuate characterization of observed teleseismic body waves.
We will also investigate the feasibility of using the theoretical re-spcases of point dis,1ccatien-squrces as Green's functions for three-dimen-
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sicnal finite fault simulatiens of very large earthquakes.
This technique may be useful if observed recsrds are not available at desired scur:n-station geometries.
Such Green's functions wculd be calculated assuming a hori::ntally-layered earth structure.
The Green's functions would then be integrated over the fault surface in. crder to produce mc 4cns due to a finita rupture surfaca.
These techniques have been used with c:nsiderable su::ess t: medal rec =rds fr:m moderata-si:ed earthquakes (Heat:n,1952; Hart:all and Heimberger,193?i Ha.- :all and Hest:n,1983).
Evaluatien cf Tsunami ha:a[ In order t:
ebtain a' r: ugh esti= ate cf the ha:ard due to local Tsunamis which may be generated by a great shallcw subductica ::ne event, we will search fer subducticn :enes with ecean bott:m pr: files and scur e gecmetries similar ts that fcund in the Juan de Fuca subduction :ene.
Local Tsunamis generated' by hist:ric aarthquakes in these other regicas will be catalegued. These Tsunamis will then be scaled t=
ac::unt fer differences in seismic =ci::ent ts c:me up with estimatas of the
- ctanthI heights of T'sunamis that mignt be expected alcng the c
- ast of Washingt:n, Gregen, and British Columbia.
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Strateev and ti=etable Although the felicwing work plan may evcive as we pr:ceed i,na this pr ject, we pr= pose the felicwing tasks and ac::=;anying thetable.
Task I Charactari:stien of scur:e sec=etry.
In this task, we c:= pile physical characteristics of the Juan de Fuca subducticn :ene.
Much of this backgr:und work has been dene in the Final Safety Analysis Report of the WpFS3 Nuclear.projert Hu=ter 3 (Oct:bar 1983) 6 e o e
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_ Task II Ccmparisen with other subduction :enes.
This will be primaH1y a literature search c mbined with intarviews of + o kncwledgeisle c Tleagues.
Cataleguing of physical features-shculd allcw us t: select these :enes with similar charac-teristics (Oct:bar-Nevember 1983).
Task III Estimate source diiniensions itnd gecmetry of shallew Juan de Fuca subduction :ene event.
Models of source seemetry and 1
si:e will be c:nstructad (Nevember 1953).
Iask IV Characteri:e rupture hetartgeneity.
This task ventures int:
an area net yet,,,
studied.
We intend t: cellect talesais-mic time functiens fer large subducticn ::ne events and t:
charactarire the ecughness of the time func:icns (Oecamber 1983 - SpMng 1954). ~~~
Task V C:nstruct suitas of scaled strcng gr:und =ctions.
Catalegues of streng metica rec:rds will* be saarched :
find rec =rds which may be similar to these expected fr:m a Juan de Fuca subduction :ene event.
(January - March,1984).
Task'VI Construct synthetic streng motien rec:rds by su:::::ing rec rds fr:m s:naller events.
Medals will be checked for c:nsistancy with teleseismic rec =rdings of cther great subduction : ne events (Spring 1954).
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Task VII Estimate local Tsunami ha:ard.
A catalegue of local Tsunamis t
with scurce gecmetrics and cesan bett:m pr: files similar 'a the Juan de Fuca subduction :=ne will be c:nstructad.
Tsunami heights will then be scaled using the resuits cf Task III (Su.mer 1954).
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Lecatien of crecesad work This project will be con $ucted at the Pasadena, California, field office of the Office of Earthquakes, Volcances, and Engineering USGS.
This office f.s 1ccata'd,.cn the campus of the Califcenia Institute of Technology.
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Other c=mnitments or anticicated difficulties that will affect cree or c:moletion of the crofect Most c:mputer c des ts manipulate data and c:mpute synthetic ground metiens are written and working. hewever, these c: des must be u; dated.
Further ::cre, we expect ts transfer cur work fr:m the Caltech Prime 750 c:=;utar to a new USGS VAX 11 750 c:h:: uter in the Fall of 1952.
Although we he;e that this transitten gces smcethly, there may be. unanticipated delays caused by this.
Digital.ec:rdings of grcund = tiens fr:m subduc-tien ::nes are presently available, but if a larger catalogue bec:mes neces'sary, then esllection of other regcrds may delay cur schedule.
3cth principal i'nvestigatics in this project are also 1/2 time c=ntitted to work in the Seismelegy Branch project entitled, Scuthern California C:cperative Seismic Network Prefect.
Tneir risaarch in this prcject c:very saveral areas, with the eain e.phasis in Pfl984 being re-search ints ;cssible new directicns for seismic networks.
Since the Pasadena Field Office is a small office having many.res;cnsibilities, the ociurrence of local emergency situaticns, such as earthcuakes, may affect work schedules en research projects.
7)
Pecducts 04/34 Preliminary report en nature of shaking fr:m Juan de Fucs subduction :=ne earthquakes tm the U.S.N.R.C.
10/34 Final repcrt 10/54 Scientific ;a;er en 'the nature of seis=ic ha:ards ass:ciated 1
with the Juan de Fuca subductic,n ::ne.
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$i Nafer facilities and ecuiceent needed The =4jer requirement of this pr:Je:: is c::nputer time.
de preseb.:ly purchase c mputer time fr m Ca.1 tech cn a Frice 750 ': mouter.
Mc*aever, it appears that a new USGS Vax 11-7,50 c:=: uter will tecme available for cur use in Fall 1983.
Thus cur pr:Jected c:mputer c:sts c:ver ex:enses for ~
the Caltech c:mputer which we feel will he necessary during the pr: cess cf c nverting c:mputers.
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Ex ected interactien with other erefects and worke-s There will be strong interatice. with Hir:c Xanae:ri at Cal:ach who maintains str:ng interest in the nature of subduction ::ne earthcuakes.
He it. ;rt:ently wcrking on's-imilar studies under a resear:n grant fr:m E:xen Pr:ducti:n Resea,rch C: meany.
We also ex:ect interacticn fr:m Ocug Coats of Exxon Pr:ducticn Research C:=:any and C.S. Cr use,cf Earth Technelegy Cor;cratien.
Calteca graudata students, in : articular, Anne Mori, will be enc:uraged t: participate in the research.
Due :s the far-ranging i=slicatiens of tnis research, we ex:ect := interac.
frecuently abcut the nature of cur craliminary c:nclusions with research-ers at USGI-Menlo Park, Univ. Of Wasningt:n, USG3-Denver, and the U.S.
N.R.C.
10)
Qualificati ns of crinci:al investicat:rs The princi;:al investigators in this project, Weat:n and Mar.: ell, have c:nsiderahle ex erience.in the field of s/n:hesi:ing to n St.Ong meticr.s and teleseismic gr unc meti:ns fr :n c~ lex realistic earthcuake They bo.h also have experience in the :r:blem of su==ing sources.
rec rds of smaller eartacuakes t: simulate large enes.
Both have ex-perience in the c:nnercial c:nsulting field and Heat:n has c:nsiderable experience in the field of estimating gh:und==tiens at subduction A full su:nnary of the qualificaticns of the p~rincipal investiga-
- enes.
- rs is c:ntained in the resu=es included wi:.,'i this pr:pesal M.Y. Effer.
.unding Reeuest ed
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. References J
Hart: ell,S.H.(1978).
4 Gecchvs. Res. Letters,5_, 1-4.Earthqua'ka aftershecks as Green's F
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Hartcall, S.H. and 0.7. Helmberger (1982) the Imperial Valley earthquak:e~cf 1979Streng-motion modeling of
',Eull.' Seism. Soc.Am.,3, 571-596.
Hartzell, S.H. and T.H. Heaten (1983).
Inversica of streng-ground motion and talassismic waveform data for the fault rupt of the 1979 Imperial Valley, California earthquake ura history Soc. Am., in press.
, Bull. Seism.
Hesten, T.H. (1982).
Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., H,The 1971 San Fernando earthcua 20.37-2052.
A double event?,
Waten, T.H., F. Tajima, and A.L Mori (1982) using recorded accaleregrams, ma.Escript..
Estimating grcund metions n
Heaten, T.H. and H. Xanaccri (1983).
Jennings, P.C. and H. Xanameri (1983).subdu tudes fcund frem strong-motien racerdsEffect of distanca en local magni
, Bull. Sei sm. Sec. A m.,7_3,,
1645-1570.
Kanameri. H. (1979).
period ground motions from great earthquakes, Bul 69, 1645-1670.
. Seism. Soc. Am.,
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n Ficure Cactiens Figurs 1.
Respcase spectra (3h damped) for heri: ental compenents of 15 records frsh stMke-slip earthquakes which are
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scaled to a dista'nca of 50 km and a magnitude of St.
Records descMption and scaling parameters are given in Table 1.
Figure is fr m Heaten et al. (1983).
Figure 2.
a) average spectrum, b) average plus one standard de-viation specturm, c) specturs 6f the largest single Necrd, d)'spe.c_trm which envelcpes all c hers; based en spectra shewn in Figurs 1- {taian f cm-Hea:cn at al.-
1983).
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Figure 3.
Caparison of peak ground accaleraticns recordad in the western U.S. and Jacan.
Distance is approximataly the cicsest heri:catal distanca to the rupture.
Dashed
- line is the modified local magnitude distanca attanua-tion law of Jennings and Xanameri (1953).
Figure is frcs Heaten et,al. (1983).
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6.3 2.5 e.15 8.91 1.23 10.1 12.4 test Case ef 6.5 Se 8
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[hbf Resume: Themar H. Heaten
Title:
Gecphysicist - U. 5. Geolegical Survey Excertise:
Seismology [ Ear @ quake Engineering Past Excerience:
1979-1982 - Geophysicis* with U.S. Geological Survey at Caltach office.
Stn ng ground motion studies and earthquake prediction studies 1978-1979 - Senior seismologist with Dames and Mccre.
Estimation of earthquake ha: arts for major energy facili-ties.
Half-time visiting associate at the seis=clogical Laboratory at Caltach with emphasis en st eng ground motion medeling..
1977-1973 - Censultant to Dames & Mccre--Seismic ha:ard studies 1974-1978 - Censultant to Converse, Davis, Dixcn &
Associatss--Fault ha:ard ~tudies s
0 1974-Converse, Davis, Dixon & Asscciates--Engineer-ing geclogy with e=phasis en fault ha:ard studies PROFESSIONAL Seismological Society of Merican AFFILIATIONS Marican Geophysical Unicn ACADEMIC Chemistry and physics majer, Satas Cc11 age,1953-1970 SACXGROUND 3.5. in physics with special interests in mathematics and geology, Indiana University, 1972
~
Ph.D. in Gecphysics, mince in Apolied Mechanics, California Instituta of Technoicqy,1978 PUBLICATIONS Alewine, R.W., and T.H. Heaten, Tilts associa*ad with the Pt. Mugu earthquake, Prectedings, Conference on Tectenic Preblems of the San Andress Fault Svs am. Geoiccicai Sciences. XIII, Stanfors Un1 vers 1:y, 94-iO3,1973.
Heaten, T.H., Tidal tbggering of earthquakes, Gecchvs.
_J.R. astr. Soc., 43, 307-325, 1975".
Heaten, T.H. and D.V. Heimberger, Predictability cf streng ground motien in the Imperial Valley: Mcdeling the M4.9, Novecter 4,1975 3rawley earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc.
Am., SS, No. 1, 31-48, 1978.
~
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s m
4 Heatcii, T.H.cand 0.V. Helmt erger, A study of the str:n ground motion of the Eccrage Mcuntain, Califernia, earth 1977. quake, Bull. Seism. Sec. Am., 57, No. 2, 315-320
- x._
Heaton, T.H., Generali:ed ray models of str:ng gr und motion, Ph.D. Thesis, California Institute of Technclo 300 p., 1978.
Heaton, T.M. and D.V. Helmberger, Generalized ray me of the San Fernando Earthquake, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am 69 Ho. 5,1311-1341,1979.
4 Anderson, J.G. and T.H. Heat:n, Aftershock acceler: g Paper en Oct:bar 1979 Im:erial Valley Earth
, 19E0.
Heaten, T.H., J.G. Anderson, and P.T. Gen.an failure along the'New. River, in precaratien.
,.Greund windcw theory, Califernia Geolcev, January c
, pp12-16.
Amini, A., K. Mcslem Aftershock acceler:gr,ams fr:m the May 1950 Ma::=ct ear.hquake sequence, in preparation.
Heaten, T.H., The 1971-San Fernande earthquake; A d:
event?
355A, in Press,1982.
Heaton,.T. H., Tidal tHggeMng of earthquakes in Press, 1982.
, 3SSA, Heaten, T.H., F. Tajima, and A.W. M:M, Estimating gr:und motions using recorded ac:eTer: grams, BS5A, submitted.
Liu, H.L. and T.H. Hesten, Array analysis of the ground velocities and accaleratiens fr:m the 1971 San Fernando earthquaka, in preparation.
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