ML20206R278
| ML20206R278 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 05/11/1999 |
| From: | NRC ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE (ACNW) |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NACNUCLE-T-0130, NACNUCLE-T-130, NUDOCS 9905200060 | |
| Download: ML20206R278 (83) | |
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Title:
MEETING: 109TH ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE (ACNW)
TRO8 (ACNW)
RETURN ORIGINAL TO BJWHITE O Work Order No.: ASB-300-776 M/S T-2E26 415-7130 THANKS!
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PDR LOCATION: Rockville,MD DATE: Tuesday, May 11,1999 PAGES: I - 55 ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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t DISCLAIMER UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION'S a ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR. WASTE
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-, MAY 11, 1999
':p The contents of this transcript of the proceeding of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste, taken on May 11, 1999, as reported herein, is a record of the discussions recorded at the' meeting held on the above date.
This transcript had not been reviewed, corrected and edited and it may contain inaccuracies.
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1- UNITED STATES OF AMERICA C 2 NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 3 ***
4' ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE 5 ***
6 MEETING: 109th ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON 7 NUCLEAR WASTE (ACNW) 8
= 9 10 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 11 Two White Flint North 12 Room T-2B3 13 11545 Rockville Pike
'14 Rockville, Maryland
( '15-( .16 Tuesday, May 11, 1999 17-18 The committee met, pursuant to notice, at 3:50 19 p.m.
20 21- MEMBERS PRESENT:
22 B. JOHN GARRICK, Chairman, ACNW l l
23 GEORGE HORNBERGER, Member, ACNW 24 CHARLES FAIRHURST, Member, ACNW l'
25 RAY WYMER, Member, ACNW (p;
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2 1 STAFF PRESENT:
2 ANDREW C. CAMPBELL, ACNW l 3 LYNN DEERING, ACNW 4 HOWARD J. LARSON, ACNW 5 RICHARD K. MAJOR, ACNW 6 JOHN SORENSEN, ACNW Fellow 7
8 PARTICIPANTS: l 9 CHRISTIANA H. LUI, NMSS .
10 KEITH MCCONNELL, NMSS 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 .
22 23 -
l l 24
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1 PROCEEDINGS f 2 [3:50 p.m.)
'- 3 CHAIRMAN GARRICK: The meeting will now come to 4 order.
5 This is the first day of the 109th meeting of the 6 - Advisory Committee on Nuclear Waste. My name is John 7 :
Garrick, Chairman of the ACNW.
8 :
Other members of the Committee include George
. 9 Hornberger, Ray Wymer, and Charles Fairhurst.
10 The entire meeting is open to the public.
11 During today's meeting the committee has already 12 met with the ACRS-ACNW Working Group on Risk-Informed 13 Regulation, where we discussed a framework for risk-informed 14 regulation in NRC's Office of Nuclear Materials, Safety and
(~'\15 Safeguards, and we have also.had some prior discussion on b 16 committee activities and future agenda items.
17 What.we want to do now is listen to a description 18 by the Staff of the strategy for converting the issue 19 resolution status reports-for the proposed high level 20 repository at Yucca Mountain into a review plan for the 21 repository license application.
22 Howard Larson is the Designated Federal Official 23 for today's session.
24 We are conducting the meeting in accordance with 25 the pro"isions of the Federal Advisory Committee Act.
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4 1 We have received no written statements or requests to make 2 oral statements from members of the public regarding today's 3 session.
4 Should anyone wish to address the Committee, 5 please make your wishes known to one of the Committee Staff.
6 As usual, it is requested that each speaker use one of the 7 microphones, identify themselves and speak with clarity and 8 volume.
9 Before proceeding with the first agenda item, . 1 10 there's a few items of current interest that we want to 11 mention. A couple of Staff issues -- Michelle Kelton and 12 Ethel Barnard of the ACNW-ACRS Office received an I
13 Achievement Award for their contribution to the Y2K
]
14 application renovation efforts at a March 12, 1999 awards 15 ceremony. We want to thank them for their efforts, and the 16 others in the agency.
l 17 We are told now that our computers are ready and 18 that we may not have to unplug them after all.
19 Mary Thomas's six-month rotational assignment has 20 recently ended, and she has returned to the Office of 21 Nuclear Regulatory Research. Mary was a major player in our .
22 recent working group session on the effects of low-level 23 ionizing radiation. -
l 24 The Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board issued 25 its report on the viability assessment. " Moving Beyond the ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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5 1 Yucca Mountcin Viability Assessm:nt" was the title of the The Board notes that, quote, "So far '*. has not f} 2 report.
' 3L identified any features o ocesses that wou 4 automatically disqualify tne site but that DOE should give 5 serious attention to alternatives to the VA reference design 6 including changing from a high temperature design to a 7 ventilated low temperature design below the boiling point of 8 water."
. 9 The Board also notes that DOE's plans to determine 10- the suitability of the proposed repository by 2001 is, 11 quote, "very ambitious and much work remains te se done."
12 The House Commerce Committee approved the Nuclear 13 Waste bill, H.R. 45, that will provide for interim storage 14 of spent commercial power reactor fuel at Yucca Mountain,
\ Nevada. The bill passed on a 39 to 6 vote and now moves to l5
[O ' l the House floor.
17 In an April 16 order, a Federal Judge sided with 18 the utility low-level waste generators and site developer, 19 U.S. Ecology, in their lawsuit claiming political bias 20 caused Nebraska regulators to deny a license for a disposal 21 facility last year. The Judge noted in the order that, 22 . quote,c"There is good reason to think that a license denial 23 was politically preordained." The utility, U.S. Ecology, l 24 and the Central Interstate Low Level Waste Commission sued l
l 25 the state and its regulators last year, blaming politics for .
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6 1 delays in the licensing process. The licensing denial will 2 be repealed, and in that connection --
3 DR. HORNBERGER: Appealed.
4 DR. GARRICK: I'm sorry, appealed -- appealed, 5 yes. Thank you.
6 In connection with that, Nebraska's legislature 7 has approved L.B. 530, a bill to remove the state from the 8 Central Interstate Low Level Radioactive Waste Compact. On 9 May 6th the bill passed the ' third and final round of debate .
10 by a vote of 33 to 11 with 5 Senators excused and not 11 voting, and it now proceeds to the Governor. The Governor 12 is expected to sign it into law, and if enacted, the 13 legislation will take effect on August 29th. As provided in 14 the legislation, the Governor may then write to the 15 Governors of the compacts under member states to notify them 16 of Nebraska's withdrawal.
17 Of course, under the terms of the compact 18 agreement withdrawals generally do not take effect until 19 five years from the date of such notification.
20 One other item of interest, maybe two others.
21 County Commissioners in the Las Vegas area have made it very ' )
l 22 clear that they plan to fight the transportation routes '
23 chosen for moving radioactive waste through the Las Vegas -
24 area from DOE's Fernald site in Ohio. This is of interest 25 given the discussions we had earlier in the day on ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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l 1 transportation. -
[} 21 One other perhaps note of interest is that New
3- Mexico Attorney-General, Patricia Smith, late last month l
4 pulled'out of litigation challenging the Environmental 5 Protection Agency certification of the Waste Isolation Pilot 6 Plant's long-term disposal standards. The standards are 7 aimed at protecting public health and safety for 10,000 8 years. Madrid's motion to withdraw from the case was
= 9 granted Wednesday by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 10 District of Columbia, which also decided to terminate oral 11 arguments between the State of New Mexico and EPA that were 12 scheduled for Thursday. I think this is -- I guess this is l l
13 dated May 10th, so I guess they are talking about this week.
14 I think that is all the items of interest that we l
l 15 want to cover.
U 16 Now we are going to turn to the. Staff for a 17 . discussion of Yucca Mountain review plan and 1 guess Keith 18 McConnell is going to kick it off and then introduce 19 Christiana.
20 DR. McCONNELL: Thank you, Dr. Garrick, members of 21 the committee.
22 We are here today for the first of several 23 interactions we intend to have with the committee as we 24 develop the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. Today's briefing is 25 basically at the. concept level, defining how we intend to l
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1 approach the development of the Yucca Mountain Review Plan.
2 It doesn't get into specific details, although there is an 3 example that Christiana has as backup.
4 As we get into the details of specific issues such 5 as defense-in-depth, how we intend to implement 6 defense-in-depth in the Yucca Mountain Review Plan, we will 7 be back to the committee as well as other details as we go 8 along in this process and part of Christiana's presentation 9 is a sc2 hile , at least a proposed schedule, for all of the .
10 elements of the work.
11 In~ fact, I think we are right now scheduled to 12 talk to you briefly about defense-in-depth at the June 13 meeting you intend to have in San Antonio.
14 So with that I will turn it over to Christiana 15 Liu, who is the lead for the development of the Yucca 16 Mountain Review Plan.
17- MS. LUI: Thanks, Keith. The title of my 18 presentation today is "The Framework for the Yucca Mountain 1
19 Review Plan." This is a work in progress and we thought l
20 that as we proceed along the development of the review plan, 21 we will come back to the committee to talk to you as we 22 develop more and more details. Today is the part one of the 23 series. -
24 I am Christiana Liu, and I work for Keith 25 McConnell in the High Level Waste and Performance Assessment ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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-' 3 Basically, there be pretty much three parts 4 to my presentation today. The first four bullets cover part 5 one, which I will give you a brief introduction to the 6 framework for the Yucca Mountain Review Plan before we jump 7 into the more detailed part of how we are intending on 8 integrating the material we have published in the IRSRs into a 9 the Yucca Mountain Review Plan.
10 And the last part of the presentation, I will 11 conclude with the advantages of the approach that we intend 12 to implement and, also, like Keith has mentionec a schedule 13 'for the proposed work.
14 There are basically four very high level principles before we jump into the framework. The staff is f~'}15
%j 16' principally respe sible to defend the conclusion of our 17 review of any potential license application for the Yt :a 18 Mountain site, and DOE, w is the licensee,.is responsible 19 :o make sure that an adequate case is made in the license 20 application.
21 We have recently published a proposed 22 performance-based, site-specific rule, Part 63. In the c.'"
23 .for public comments, basically, we thought that a 24 performance-based, site-specific rule should be accompanied 25 by a performance-based, si --specific review plan, and the gg ANN R: 2Y & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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10 1 focus of this review plan is for NRC staff evaluation of DOE 2 safety case, including how the site characterization and 3 experimental work has been conducted to support DOE's safety 4 case. You are going to see later on with more detail of 5 what we mean by performance-based and site-specific 6 approach, which is basically a top-down approach to include i 1
l 7 all the work that has been conducted. l 8 The strategy for licensing the Yucca Mountain site 9 has been published in SECY-97-300. That was the strategy .
10 paper prior to the staff's work on Part 63, and in that 11 particular SECY paper, the staff talks about how we intend 12 to develop the Yucca Mountain Review Plan and the work here 13 basically reflects that particular strategy.
14 And the last point is the review should really be 15 done in an integrated fashion, that integration should take 16 place as at the technical staff level. Again, this is 17 speaking to a top-down approach, recognizing that there will 18 be a natural tension between implementation of a 19 performance-based rule and the need to prepare and guide the 20 staff in performing the review and writing the final Safety 21 Evaluation Report.
22 The Yucca Mountain Review Plan should be 23 formulated based on the staff's current understanding of .
24 DOE's approach and all the iterative performance assessment 25 work that the staff has been doing in the past decade to ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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! 1 build up our own capability.
('~} 2 Given that, the. framework should be sufficiently 3 flexibility to accommodate changes in DOE's approach. In 4 all works in the performance-based approach, the licensee is 5 .given the flexibility in designing how they will address 6 their safety case and the staff should be prepared to be 7 flexible in accommodating whatever approach DOE has decided 8 to use :Ln their license application.
. 9 Nextl I will turn quickly to the features of the 10 review plan. As in all the other review plans, they are 11 five standard components, the areas of review that basically 12 describe the scope of the review, in other words, what is 13 being reviewed.
14 Acceptance criteria delineates the criteria that
[G' } 15 can be applied by the reviewer to determine the 16 acceptability of the compliance demonstration.
17 Review procedure discusses the appropriate review I 18 technique to determine whether the acceptance criteria have 19 been met.
i 20 Evaluation findings basically presents the general i 21 conclusions and finding based -- resulting form the staff's 22 review, and that will be the material that will we make into 23 the Safety Evaluation Report.
24 Finally, references, that will list any applicable 25 references that the staff has used in its review and the ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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12 1 review plan.
2 The next part is a very high level outline of what 3 the final Yucca Mountain Review Plan will most likely look 4 like, abstract, executive summary, introduction, and there 5 are basically three elements in the introduction that we 6 would like to cover.
7 Part I is basically the principles in formulating 8 this performance-based review plan that will give the 9 background that I have presented to you at the beginning of .
10 this talk.
11 And structure of progression of NRC high level 12 wasto program, basically, this will describe how we have 13 used the KTIs for pre-licensing consultation and issue 14 resolution and how we are transitioning from the KTI 15 approach into an integrated team approach for reviewing the 16 license application.
17 And the third part, we will attempt to provide a 18 clear relationship between how the Yucca Mountain Review --
19 the Yucca Mountain license application is going to be 20 reviewed and in what context the requirements under 21 paragraph 63.21, that is the content of license application, 22 are to be reviewed.
23 Chapter 1, review of general information, which is -
24 basically a requirement in the proposed Part 63, paragraph 25 63.21(b).
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13 1 What_I am going to spend more time in the 2 subseque"t.part of this presentation is really to talk to
\~ # 3' you' abo. Chapter.2, which is the Safety Analysis Report.
4- JAnd there are three components to that Safety Analysis
'5 Report Revir , the pre-closure part, the post-closure part 6 and the administrative and programmatic requirements.
7 The IRSR work'has.been done, mostly on the 8 post-closure'part which is basically Chapter II.B on this
. 9 outline. We may come back to this outline later on as we go 10 on'with this particular presentation.
11 The next three'pages basically.gives you more 12 .information of what Chapters II.A, II.B and II.C will look 13 like. Chapter'!I.A'and II.B are organized by performance 14 objectives and the associated technical criteria.
15 Under areas offreview for II.A, the compliance 16- demonstration to meet the pre-closure performance objective 17 and the requirements for an ISA and Subpart F, and the 18 review. chapters are basically formulated based on the 19 pre-closure performance objectives.
l 20 Basically, we have required DOE to use an
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21 integrated safety analysis to demonstrate the pre-closure 1
22 safety during operation and for design basis events i
23 categories 1 and 2. j 24 _Another performance. objective for pre-closure is ,
25 .retrievability plan and alternate storage.
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14 1 And the last objective for pre-closure performance 2 -- for pre-closure portion is the performance confirmation 3 program.
4 For each of the review chapters, we will clearly 5 identify what part of the license application is to be 6 reviewed. For example, taking Chapter II.A.2, the 7 retrievability plan and alternate storage, the content of 8 Yucca Mountain license application to be reviewed will be in 9 paragraph 63.21(c) (19) , it is the retrieval and alternate .
10 storage plans.
11 And evaluation findings basically is to conclude, 12 after reviewing all the parts in the license application as l 1
13 they have been specified here, whether DOE has met the 14 pre-closure performance objectives and the technical 1 1
15 requirements associated with it. If they have, then the 16 staff's -- the conclusion that will go into the Safety )
I 17 Evaluation Report is that DOE has successfully demonstrated 18 they have met the pre-closure performance objective.
19 Because of the parallelism that has been building 20 to the proposed Part 63, the pre-closure and post-closure 21 have similar approaches. On the next page, page 6, II.B, .
22 repository safety after permanent closure, again, the areas 23 of review here is the compliance demonstration. To me, the -
j 24 post-closure performance objectives which are delineated in l 25 paragraph 63.113 and the technical requirements for doing a ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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1 performance assessment, the technical requirements for 1 h f'"' 2 critical group and, again, performance confirmation program.
\~ ' 3 And the review' chapters are performance assessment 4 and performance confirmation. Because we fully expect DOE i
5 to use performance assessment to demonstrate that they have l
6 met the post-closure performance objectives, namely, the i
l 7 mean peak dose will not be greater than 25 millirem per 8 year, and also the multiple barrier requirement, and the i . 9 license application that will be reviewed to determine if 10 DOE has successfully demonstrated post-closure performance 11 in the performance assessment are identified under Chapter 12 II.B.1.
13 We will review site description, the material that 14 has been used in construction, especially for underground
/h15 tunnel, the EBS design, of course, performance assessment Y
u.' 16 itself, the stylized human intrusion analysis, use of expert !
i 17_ elicitations, and there are probably also other parts that I l
l 18 have not listed here. But as we work on the development of !
1 j 19 this review plan, all the different parts and detail will be 20 fleshed out.
21 Again, the evaluation findings is to determine if 22 DOE has successfully demonstrated they have met the
- 23 post-closure objectives outlined in paragraph 63.113 and met 1
24 the technical requirements in 63.114 and 63.115, and also l
l 25 the performance confirmation requirement.
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r' 16 1 Administrative and prc~rammatic requirements.
l 2 Right now, these are -- these contain Subpart D, that is the 3 records, reports, tests and inspections; Subpart G, quality 4 4 assurance; and Subpart H, training and certification of a
5 personnel. For each of those subparts, there will be a 6 review chapter associated with it and the evaluation 7 findings is to determine if DOE has demonstrated they have 8 met the requirements under these subparts. i 9 C;.a thing that I would like to mention is existing ,
10 guidance, such as Regulatory Guides, NUREGs and the other
- 11. Standard Review Plans will be used or modified to the extent 12 applicable.
13 In terms of when we develop the Yucca Mountain 14 Review Plan. In other words if there is no need to reinvent 15 the wheel, we will not do that, especially for the I 16 administrative and programmatic requirements and also some 17 of the preclosure portions.
18 Page 8 and page 9 casically gives you a 19 preliminary idea of what part of the license r olication is 20 going to be reviewed where. Since each of the chapters will 21 contain the acceptance criteria and review methods, these 22 will clearly be for guidance to the Staff and indirectly 23 provide information for the DOE on what we expect to see, .
24 how we are going to determine what is acceptable or what is 25 not acceptable.
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17 1: This; particular -linkage may change as we finali::e
-2: Part 63 and we further develop the Yucca Mountain Review 3 Plan.
4 One thing I would-like to mention, that as'we are
~5 going:through this more or less systematic process we found
~
6: that some of the entries currently under 63.21 will probably 7- :be modified. For exemple, the use of expert elicitation l 8 The'Part:63 right now only requires DOE to supply its use in
. 19 the post-closure portion and we know that DOE is'using or is 10 planning on-using expert elicitation for some of their 11 design work for the preclosure part, such as probabilistic 12: seismic hazard analysis, so we will modify G .21 to require j 1
13- ~ DOE to supply information for expert elicitation use for
-14' both'the' pre and post closure part'.
OJ.5 There may,be some redundancy in 63.21 and we'will 16 most likely consolidate some of the requirements without 17~ changing the essence of what is currently under 63.21. ,Some 18 of.the' requirements under 63.21 are.really technical
'19- Jrequirements rather than content-related requirements, so 20 those technical requirements will be moved to the
-21 appropriate technical requirement portion under subpart (e) 22- leaving 63.21 strictly content.
-23 , Finally, the sequence may be rearranged to reflect 24' a more logical structure in the final rule.
-25 This basical k oncludes Part 1 of the
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18 1 presentation on the framework of the Yucca Mountain Review 2 Plan. Now I would like to provide you more information on 3 how we are approaching it in terms of integrating the IRSRs 4 into the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. You may want to keep 5 in mind that for the post-closure part, the outline is on 6 page 6.
7 DR. GARRICK: Maybe the committee would like to 8 ask some questions before you make the transition.
9 MS. LUI: Okay. .
10 DR. GAL .!K: One of the things that I was trying 11 to track here was in the framework for the, in the framework 12 for the Review Plan was how you are going to use some of 13 your tools and what those tools are and this table kind of 14 gets in it, but it seems to have apples and oranges, as you 15 kind of explained.
16 It has methods of analysis and it has physical 17 features. l 18 MS. LUI: Right.
1 19 DR. GARRICK: For example, the site is a physical l
20 feature and the performance assessment and integrated safety 21 anal'ysis are methods of analysis. I guess site description ,
i 22 could be considered. I was just having a little trouble 23 trying to figure out what you were attempting to do here. -
24 MS. LUI: Okay. I believe we are on Slide Number 25 8, is that correct?
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'l DR. GARRICK: Yes.
/~' . 2 . MS. LUI: Okay. 'The left-hand side of the first.
\- # ~3 . column lis really the very abbreviated description of what is 4 currently in'paragraphL63.21, the content of license L54 application.
6 Again what is currently under 63.21 is more or 7' 'less a: flat. structure, so yes,.you are correct, Dr. Garrick.
~
8 For performance assessment in order to really evaluate a
- = 9 complete performance assessment there are a lot of other
.10 ' pieces that will need to be used to support.that performance 11- assessment but they are currently' laid'out in the linear
-12' structure-rather-than in a hierarchy structure.
13 .One of the possible things:that might happen when 14' we'go towards finalizing Part 63 is to organize the content 15- :of application in a more logical fashion that would 16 ; correspond to,'more or less correspond to-our review 17 process.
18 DR. GARRICK: Okay. The other thing I was looking 19 for as how your TPA, now the NRC's TPA really enters into 20 .the framework, into the review process. You do talk about 21- performance assessment with respect to permanent closure but 222 againtI was'trying to figure out how the tools you have are 23- going;to be employed in the review process.
24 MS. LUI: t Okay. You will hear more on that during
- 25 Part.2 of this presentation.
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1 DR. GARRICK: Oh, okay.
2 MS. LUI: But one of the immediate results that we I
3 have used in terms of applying TPA code is to help us focus 4 on what we need to focus in terms of reviewing the 5 performance assessment. !
6 Basically I think I mentioned this when I talked i 7 about the principles is that the Staff's IPE effort has been 8 used in terms of formulating this particular 9 performance-based approach but if you are looking for a .
10 specific use of TPA code we'll talk about it a little bit 11 later.
12 DR. GARRICK: Okay, well, yes. I think sooner or 13 later we want to learn a little more about the Independent 14 Safety Analysis process too. I don't know whether we are 15 going to get into that here or not but that has come up in 16 other issues that we have discussed today and we have got 17 input coming on that, so we can assume we will learn more 18 about that later.
19 DR. McCONNELL: Yes. The preclosure -- this is 20 Keigh McConnell -- the preclosure safety case review plan is 21 lagging behind the postclosure because we have over the past 22 couple years focused on the postclosure capability within 23 the Staff and also that is the focus of the KTIs, but we are -
24 now developing our concept towards developing an ISA and 25 what would be in a review plan that we would expect for DOE, ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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21 1 what we would use to gauge an acceptable ISA that DOE would
/'~ 2 submit, so I guess what I am trying to ay is we're a little
\' bit earlier in the pr ess with that p-_t of the Review Plan 4 than we are with the postclosure.
5 DR. GARRICK: Right.
.6 DR. McCONNELL: > this briefing is just going to 7 focus on the postclosure.
.8 DR. GARRICK: Okay. Any other comments?
. 9 [No response.]
10 MS. LUI: Okay. Now I'll move on to the second 11 part.
12 To focus on how we are integrating all the IRSRs 13 into the Review Plan. Again, just to reiterate the 14 strategy, SECY-97-300 describes staff strategy i.. developing
['~NA5 the. propose Part 63 and Yucca Mountain-review plan.
b 16 YO will find on your next page, that's page 11, 17 the flowdown diagram that we have included with the strategy 18 paper. And integration of all the IRSRs for the postclost 19 work is really taking place at the third tier of this 20 flowdown diagram.
21 Up until this point the total system performance.
i 22 assessment f.ntegration IRSR uses this particular framework 23 that.you sen on page 11 here to basically set up the IRSR 24 material, and all the KTIs have done the crosswalk to the l 1
25 lowest tier of this particular flowdown diagram to identify ;
l l
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22 1 and indicate how the subissues are contributing to the total 2 system performance assessment.
3 From this point on to avoid duplication and keep a 4 consistent set of acceptance criteria and review methods, 5 starting from FY2000, all the acceptance criteria and review 6 methods will be in the Yucca Mountain Review Plan, and 7 integration if we intend to use this lowest tier as the 8 integration tool to help us systematically integrate all the 9 information from the various key technical issues and the ,
10 plan.
11 The status of issue resolution will continue to be 12 documented in the IRSR.
13 DR. McCONNELL: If I could, Christiana, this is 14 where we are implementing the TPA effort into the Yucca 15 Mountain review plan. It says this lower tier on this 16 diagram, which you should be pretty familiar with, is where 17 we used the information from our reviews of DOE documents as 18 well as our own IPA efforts to identify those elements of 19 the performance assessment that are most important. So 20 here's how we're integrating the TPA effort into this 21 process. And you'll see more of it as Christiana goes on.
22 MS. LUI: Well, actually, Keith, you have jumped 23 ahead -- -
24 DR. McCONNELL: Sorry.
25 MS. LUI: To Slide Number 12.
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23 1 DR. McCONNELL: Okay.
,/~ 2 MS. LUI: Okay. The bottom tier here, we have
(
a retermed them as integrated subissues. It seems everybody's 4 a lot more comfortable in terms of talking about subissues.
5~ You may also know the. lowest tier as key elements of 6 subsystem abstractions or KESAs. But in the review plan we 7 will not name them KESAs, rather, we would like to call them 8 integrated subissues, because here it is really integrating
. 9 all the efforts that have been taking place by.the staff up 10 until this point.
11 And what these integrated subissues are, they are 12 really developed from a top-down approach,.and developed l 13 based on as Keith has indicated review of DOE's.TSPAs, 14 knowledge of current design options and site
{' 15 characteristics, and the staff's IPA work, which basically 16 relies upon TPA a lot.
'17 AnL they are integrated processes, features, and 18 events that could impact system performance. This 19 particular framework provides KTI an integration tool to 20 describe their contribution in the context of total system 21 performance assessment, and also helps us to facilitate 22 integration at the technical staff level.
- 23 For example, many KTIs require interaction with 24 other KTIs in evaluating repository performance such as for 25 waste package corrosion, which is basically the very first 1
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24 1 box on the lowest tier on page 11 of the flowdown diagram.
2 The current KTI division is not -- the waste 3 package corrosion issue cannot just be addressed by any one 4 single KTI. It's a concertec effort between thermal effects 5 on flow, the near field environment, the container lifetime 6 and source term, and of course we use the TPA code under the 7 TSPA KTI to help us evaluate the waste package corrosion 8 issue.
9 The next page, after giving you some background .
10 information now I would like to give you some more detail in 11 terms of the performance assessment review, which is 12 basically Chapter 2 (b) (1) under the outline for the Yucca 13 Mountain Review Plan.
14 In this particular chapter we have basically four 15 subgroups. This is some description and demonstration of 16 multiple barriers, scenario analysis, model abstraction, and I 17 demonstration of the overall performance objectives.
18 We fully expect that DOE will do analysis to show -
19 how they are taking credit for the various features, events 20 and processes or a combination of them to satisfy the 21 multiple barriers requirement, therefore upfront we would ,
22 like them to summarize what they have done, what they are 23 taking credit for in terms of demonstrating the multiple -
24 barriers requirement. That will also help the Staff to 25 focus on our review in terms of what DOE is relying upon. i 1
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1 The next step is scenario analysis. Basically
,f'~s 2 here we'will expect DOE to clearly identify what they have
-\N/ /
3 taken into consideration in their post-t asure safety case j
.4 and what they have excluded and what are the technical bases 5 for inclusion or exclusion. In other words, this part will i 1
6 set up the boundary condition for the performance 7 assessment.
8 After that part is done, then we look at the model
. 9 abstraction, what has really gone into the calculations and 1 10 here is 14 integrated subissues that we have shown on the 11 lowest tier of the flow-down diagram. We basically help the i 1
12 Staff in focusing our effort and focusing and integrating 13 the information that we have published in the IRSRs.
14 Lastly, after reviewing all the previous three parts, we will make a determination to see if DOE has truly
[V"'}1615 demonstrated they have met the overall performance 17' objectives in terms of dose requirement and the multiple 18 barriers requirement.
19 Here'is also the place where we will be developing 20 acceptance criteria review methods in terms of the 21 transparency and traceability of DOE's analysis.
22 I know this is a very, very busy slide but I just
- 23 wanted to keep everything together rather than have you flip 24 back and forth.
25 DR. GARRICK: I understand. I like to do that ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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26 1 once in awhile myself. I am just trying to interpret it in 2 terms of, say, the multiple barriers and where you really 3 address those.
1 4 MS. LUI: The multiple barriers would be the very l l
5 first group. There are three technical requirements l 6 associated with multiple barriers. The part is to identify,
)
7 is to require DOE to identify what barriers they are taking 8 credit for and the second part is to provide the technical 9 basis, and then -- sorry, I forgot what's the third part. .
10 Tim?
11 MR. McCARTIN: The middle one is the capability 12 and the last one is the basis for the capability. l 13 MS. LUI: So basically the technical requirements 14 are laid out in the proposed Part 63. What we will do in 15 the Review Plan is to develop acceptance criteria and review 16 procedures and most likely we will also provide guidance in 17 terms of what DOE can do to demonstrate multiple barriers. l 18 DR. GARRICK: Okay.
19 MS. LUI: Okay? The next three*pages basically 1
20 highlights what I have talked briefly about five or 10 21' minutes ago is the crosswalk that all the KTIs have done to 22 relate their subissues to the integrated subissues. These 23 are the existing relevant KTI subissues. .
24 As we go through this process ourselves, we may 25 find that there will be knowledge and expertise needed to ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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F 27 1 -bridge the gap in the integrated subissues that currently do
(} 2 not have a KTI subissue associated with it. This will help i
'- '/ 3 us to focus our efforts by using a top-down approach.
4- You probably have seen this particular crosswalk 5 in one form or the other when you received the IRSRs from 6 us, because all the KTIs have basically done this particular 7 crosswalk and here it is just a summary of all the 8 information that had been published previously.
l
- 9 The next two pages, page 17 and 18, as I have 1
10 mentione'd previously because we are trying to implement this 11 performance-based approach we need to provide the licensees 12 the flexibility in terms of how the licensees intend to 13 address their safety case.
14 In the viability assessment, in TSPA VA DOE
[ '\15 basically has identified 19 principal factors that are of U 16 greatest importance to post-closure performance. I just 17 want to demonstrate that the integrated subissue approach 18 will allow us to review DOE's safety case that's built on 19 these 19 principal factors.
20 g Even though there is not necessarily one-to-one 21 correspondence, we do have ever) single principal factor 22 covered in the proposed approach for the Yucca Mountain 23 Review Plan.
24 DR. McCONNELL: Can I just add that we intend to 25 work with the Department of Energy over the next couple of ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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28 1 months in trying to come closer together perhaps on matching 2 their elements with our integrated subissues. In fact, we 3 have talked to them briefly and they seem to be willing to 4 do that, so there may be more coalescence as we move on.
5 DR. GARRICK: But for now they have all been 6 accou red for. l 7 MS. LUI: Yes. I would like to point out that the l 8 19 principle factors do not address disruptive events, but ,
l 9 in DOE safety strategy, they do have attributes that talk to ,
10 disruptive events and we do have integrated subissues that l
11 will review the disruptive events process such as mechanical 12 disruption or waste packages and igneous activity integrated 1
13 sub-issues. So even though you don't see the disruptive 14 events here, they will be included.
15 And, finally, the third part, advantages of the 16 approach. Review of both the pre-closure and post-closure 17 safety cases are performance-based because from the very 18 beginning we are set out to determine if DOE has met the 19 performance objectives or not, and we use the top-down 20 > 'proach to evaluate the license application. It will 21 ancompass all the related activities such as site 22 characterization, experimental work and all the way up to 23 performance assessment. .
24 By using the top-down approach, the iterative 25 cycle of performance assessment, data collection is clearly ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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29 1 and closely maintained. And in this particular framework we
('~} 2 can cle' 'y indicate why DOE's supporting data is acceptable
\\- '/ 3 or defi.._nt in the context of how that piece of information 4 has been used to support DOE's safety case.
5 And as we go through this particular process, as 6 we go through the integration of all the acceptance criteria 7 and review methods currently in the IRSRs, we will attempt 8 to minimize any duplication and also modify or eliminate,
. 9 possibly -- I would like to emphasize the word possibly, 10 overly prescriptive acceptance criter. currently out in the 11 IRSRs. And the requirements under the content of license 12 application, which is paragraph 63.2* and the requirement 13 for addition information, RAIs, are clearly justified in 14 this particular context.
/'~'\15 And we certainly -- and we hope by using, by L 16 implementing this particular framework, it w4.ll lead to a 17 streamlined, transparent and integrated review plan.
18 And on the last page are the seven activities that 19 we have identified related to the development of Yucca 20 Mountain Review Plan that will be of interest to the 21 committee. We are planning on a technical exchange in the 22 last week of May to talk about the Yucca Mountain Review 23 Plan with DOE and our attempt is to get understanding from 24 them, and also to work on possibly having a consistent 25 approach between the review plan, between the license ANN,RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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30 1 application and also leading to a consistent Safety 2 Evaluation Report at the end.
3 Currently, the staff is working on Revision 2 of 4 the IRSRs and they are -- all of them will be schedule to go 5 out of the NRC by September 30th, 1999. And the materials 6 in the IRSRs will be appropriately integrated into the Yucca 7 Mountain Review Plan, or be referenced by the review plan.
8 The acceptance criteria and the review methods will 9 certainly be integrated into the review plan. However, some .
10 of the technical basis section will probably be left in the 11 IRSR and will be referenced by the Yucca Mountain Review 12 Plan.
13 Activities 3, 4 and 5 are inter-related. We are 14 currently scheduled to provide to the Commission the final 15 Part 63 package and also an annotated outline of the Yucca 16 Mountain Review Plan by November 30th, 1999, however, there j 17 is a possible postponement to February 2000 which are 18 currently being talked about.
19 But in any case, once we have submitted to the 20 Commission the final rule package and after the Commission l 21 has approved that, we intend to have public meetings with .
22 the state and county and also interactions with DOE to 23 present and clarify the final Part 63 and also the -
24 accompanying Yucca Mountain Review Plan.
25 The Rev. O of Yucca Mountain Review Plan is ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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31 1 currently scheduled to go out on March 31st, 2000, but be
, s 2 aware that, as Keith has mentioned, the pre-closure part is (N 'l 3 not as mature as the post-closure part at this point. So in 4 the Rev. 0 Yucca Mountain Review Plan, it will contain some 5 "to be determined," or "to be developed" sections. But as 6 we proceed along the line, those sections will be filled in.
7 And we will publish future revisions of the Yucca 8 Mountain Review Plan before the key DOE milestones such as
. 9 site recommendation and license application. And during l 10 this entire process, we will come back to the committee to 11 brief you on our progress and seek advice as appropriate.
12 This basically concludes the formal part of my 13 presentation.
14 DR. McCONNELL: Okay. What Christiana does have
['~'j ls at the back is some backup slides to kind of go through one 16 of the integrated subissues and defines how we are starting 17 to bring in the acceptance criteria from the various KTIs 18 into the integrated subissues, and I'm not sure if you want 19 to go through that in this forum or not or just have it for 20 your reference.
21 DR. GARRICK: Well, I think for now we'll use it 22 as reference.
23 One of the things that the Committee has been 24 anxious to resolve, and this begins to address that, is the 25 interrelationship of the KTIs and the TPA, and the ability i I
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32 1 for us to be convinced of what's really driving what. And I 2 suppose that we're going to have to, you know, see some 3 detail in order to understand that.
4 But the one concern we have had is that the KTIs 5 would assume a sort of a sacredness of level with respect to 6 being.an issue, and whether or not the iterations of the TPA 7 would indeed be able to map to the KTIs in a way that would l 8 importance rank them, for example, and keep their importance 9 in'some sort of order in relation to a risk perspective, "
l 10 which kind of brings me to some overarching observation. 1
)
13 You do put a lot of effort in this presentation with respect 12 to it being performance-based. Not much is said about it 13 being risk-informed except indirectly as it relates to the !
14 performance assessment.
15 And I guess I'm just raising the question, is the 16 risk perspective really in the review plan?
17 MS. LUI: I believe it is, because we have put a 18 lot of focus in terms of what's the expected evolution of 19 the repository.
20 DR. GARRICK: Um-hum.
2'1 MS. LUI: Basically staff's position is this is 22 what we anticipate to happen sooner or later. So in that 23 perspective the probability is close to 1, except for the .
24 disruptive events which we do have screening criteria set up 25 in Part 63 to talk about the probability part. .
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I 33
(=
l 1 DR. GARRICK: Um-hum.
2- DR. McCONNELL: I'd just' add that implicitly -- I
~
3 think what'Christiana's point out is implicitly it is in 4 what you've seen today, and it's explicitly -- implicitly in 5 the sense that in the integr~ted subissues basically the 6 approach we've been taking in evaluating DOE submittals like 7 the VA was to look a -he i- ' grated subissues, look at 8 their contribution to the r in the sense of the PA, in
+ 9 the PA calcu tion, and use that as a guide for where we 10 would concentrate our revice. So in our own sensitivity 11 studies where we look at the risk sensitivity of the various 12 integrated subissues, we've used that to focus it so 13 implicitly it's i_. :his diagram and in the review plan.
14 We are I think now embarking -- and the KTIs are
-)15A embarking on a path where they are using risk-informed to l 16 look at their'orn subissues within a KTI, and that . hen will 17 flow up. This is one case where things will flow up into 18 the PA where we will concentrate our effort when we look at 19 our cwn code and also when we look at perhaps the 20 . identification of other integrated subissues. So I guess 21 the messs e I'm trying to say is it's implicitly in here, 22 and as we go along this process we'll probably do more to
- - 23 explicitly bring it into the review plan. And I think 24 you'll see that.
L 25 DR. GARRICK: Well, maybe the other Committee 1
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34 1 Members can see it more clearly than I. I'm still 2 struggling with trying to understand how the risk 3 perspective really is a management tool for the review 4 process. You talk a lot about a top-down approach. My idea 5 of a top-down approach would be a series of scenarios that 6 would characterize the risk of the repository and then a 7 ranking of those scr.narios in terms of their contribution to 8 the overall risk, and then the fallout from that of these 9 items in these lower boxes in terms of their contribution to .
10 first the scenario, the risk of that particular scenario, 11 and, second, the risk of the aggregation of scenarios.
12 I'm still looking for something that gives me a 13 comfortable feeling that there's a real genuineness here in 14 the implementation of a risk approach to determining the 15 performance, the safety performance of the repository. And 16 I hear and see a lot of things that look like you're trying 17 to do that.
18 DR. GARRICK: But as I say, it is not sufficiently 19 transparent to me yet to really be convinced that that kind 20 of thought process prevails, and I yield to the other 21 members to comment.
22 DR. HORNBERGER: Well, I am just curious whether 23 or not except for disruptive events we have a scenario -
24 driven approach.
25 DR. McCONNELL: Well, I think we do, but maybe Tim ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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r 35 l
I can --
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'MR. McCARTIN: Well, I don't know if this will
\-- 3 scratch the itch or not, but let me try.
4 I think what Keith and Christiana have both said, 5 I mean the KESAs or those subissues are the areas that we 6 believe, based'on our analyses of the site with TPA as well 7 as all the KTIs, the information they have had, that need to 8 be addressed, the risk part of it gets tricky because DOE is
- 9 the one that is going to demonstrate performance and they 10 have a variety of ways to deal with those subject areas.
11 There could be some of those subject areas -- we I 12 are going to do a bounding analysis here or use a bounding E13 parameter because it doesn't have much impact on the 14 repository performance but that is their demonstration and 15 we have to -- they have that flexibility in looking at the 16 risk, with the rigor that they will' attach and the depth of 17 detail and that part, other than they have to address those 18- issues, how they address them I think is getting to your i 19 risk part, and it is their demonstration, and our review 20 will have to be flexible enough to, well, if it is a 21 bounding analysis there is one way we will look at the 22 information versus detailed information, et cetera, and l
'
- 23 hopefully we will try to capture that in the acceptance 24 crit.eria.
25 DR. McCONNELL: But we do try to use a risk basis ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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36 1 for judging where we place the emphasis in our reviews and 2 that is based on our own sensitivity studies, 3 notwithstanding the fact that DOE does have the 4 responsibility for making the safety case.
5- DR. HORNBERGER: No, I mean I think that is --
6 that much is clear to me and I think that you are doing 7 exactly what you said.
8 I was referring to, I was trying to get my hands 9 around what John suggested in a risk approach, which was a .
10 down-down approach where you started by defining a whole 11 suite of scenarios that would lead to a failure, if you 12 like, and I am not sure that we have that.
13 I think that as Christiana said, this is going to 14 happen and we have sort of one scenario and the scenario is 15 that it is going to happen, that we are going to get this 16 solution and migration and transport and everything else.
17 Well, correct me if I am wrong.
18 MR. McCARTIN: Well, DOE will have the job of 19 pulling together all that. We will review that for 20 completeness but I don't know --
21 DR. HORNBERGER: I'll rephrase it. From what you 22 have seen DOE do so far, do you anticipate having a 23 scenario-driven approach to review? -
24 MR. McCARTIN: Yes.
25 Okay, and give me some examples of the suites of ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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E 37 1 scenarios that you anticipato, excluding disruptive events.
2 I understand that one.
['"N 3 @@ MR. McCART'IN: Exclud..g disruptive events? Oh ,
4- you mean a base case that is primarily -- has more than one 5 scenario? Well, to date, I would say the base case that is 6 .being analyzed has the uncertainty being involved be it 7 seepage, be it the amount of fracture flow, is somewhat 8 encompassed in the uncertainty of that base case. Now I 1
.. 9 guess if you want to call that one scenario, I suspect !
i 10 that --
1 1
11 DR. HORNBERGER: I'm just trying to understand. I l
12 don't mean to argue with you.
13 MR. McCARTIN: Right, right. ,
14 DR. HORNBERGER: I am just trying to see if I
[' ) 15 understood John's question and your response in terms of it U 16 and I understand what you are saying.
17 MS. LUI: I think the closest that we have come to 18 in terms of separating out scenarios probably would be in 19 the area of alternative modelling approach, because there 20 are various -- well, various approaches in looking at for 21 example how a waste package could fail.
22 In our Review Plan we will talk about, we will 23 require DOE to-look at all the credible alternative 24 approaches but I don't believe we will ever get to a point 25 of assigning probabilities to those models. The best we can ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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38 1 do is to look at the technical basis that has been provided 2 with those alternative approaches and look at which 3 particular approach DOE has decided to use in supporting 4 their safety case and the Staff's evaluation will be looking 5 at how defensible that would be when we do our safety 6 evaluation.
7 I think that's probably what Dr. Hornberger was 8 driving at.
9 DOE at one time was going to give us everything ,
10 together. In other words, they were not going to separate 11 out if they have two or three different model approaches.
12 They were just going to combine everything and give us the 13 final results altogether and we have stressed to them over 14 and over that we want to see the results being presented 15 separately and also the technical basis that had been used 16 to support them, so we will see that in the Review Plan, 17 DR. McCONNELL: Where do stand on answering your 18 question, Dr. Garrick?
19 DR. GARRICK: Well, all of it is somewhat helpful.
20 I am sure it is a question I am going to continue to 21 struggle with for awhile and we will discuss it in future ,
22 cessions.
23 I think that one of the problems is that I have a -
24 certain notion of what constitutes a risk approach and I am 25 having to back away from that considerably to appreciate ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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39
'l fully what you are doing here, and it is going to take a l
'~' 2 little time-to be convi ccd that the mapping that you have
3 done is indeed done from the point of view of the right 4 logic engine being in control, and the logic engine that I 5 am most interested in is the one that is driven by what is 6 most important with respect to the performance parameter.
7 In this case it will be a dose standard of some 8 sort, so I think that what you have attempted to do here in 9 decomposing the KTIs into subissues and matching them up 10 with both your own and DOE's descriptions is an important 11 step.
12 And it's part of the overall puzzle. Whether or 1
13 not it's enough to really let the important contributors 14 drive the process, I don't know, I'm going to have to
~
. convince myself of that.
v
}15 16 DR. McCONNELL: Okay. And in succeeding briefings 1 1
17 we'll try to emphasize that.
18 DR, GARRICK: Charles? l 19 DR. FAIRHURST. Yes, it's quite a lot to swallow 20 at one time. Let me ask a separate question almost. I'm 21 particularly interested in what factors control and what !
22 certainties there are, seepage into the drift. Nothing j 23 going beyond, but if I wanted to know, for example, 24 infiltration rates, your model for fracture flow, matrix i 25 flow, et cetera, thermal-mechanical effects around the ;
i l
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1 excavation. It would help an awful lot in understanding the 2 approach to the engineered barriers if one could first 3 understand that subset of the problem. j 4 Would you have through this, if I were to ask you, 5 would you have an independent way of presenting, you know, a i
6 response to that question without waiti: for DOE to give l 7 you sort of its read on it and then what you'.e going to do i l
8 is to say it looks reasonable to us?
9 I mean, how independent is your assessment going . j 10 to be? I've got a lot of other questions besides, but I 11 don't know whether I've indicated clearly. It would help me 12 it NRC rather than just DOE could give some input to that 13 earlier on rather than later.
14 MS. LUI: Okay. I think I've mentioned that. We i 15 all recognize that there's a natural tension in between 16 who's leading whom in a way in the performance-based -- I 17 mean risk-informed approach. Our job is really not to do 18 licensees' work for them. Rather, our job right now is to 19 basically develop staff's capability in reviewing what DOE 20 might come in. So in our TPA code, that's sort of our l
21 attempt to utilize what we know, and staff's relatively ,
22 independent thinking in what's required to be in the 23 assessment so that you'll be defensible to help us down that -
24 path.
25- DR. McCONNELL: So I think the bottom line is we ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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41 1 have the capability, but it's right now in the existing TPA _
,/~'s 2 code to look at that particular factor.
\
3 DR. FAIRHURST: That's right.
4 DR. McCONNELL: But we're waiti:.2 for DOE to 5 demonstrate.what they intend to do, and then we'll review 6 that using this capability that we have. If that isn't too 7 jargonistic or bureaucratic.
8 MS. LUI: And all the interactions that take place
]
- 9 between the staff and DOE is our attempt to learn as quickly 10 as possible what's DOE nking and what's DOE's approach, 11 and develop our own toolbox in order to be ready.
12 DR. FAIRHURST: Yes.
13 MS. JI: For that job.
14 DR. McCONNELL: To give you another example, I 15 think we have the capability, and Tim probably could correct 16 me if I'm wrong, to mimic things li drip shields and other 17 factors that might be important in water contacting waste or i
18 the waste package or things like ti._:. So we have the l 1
19 capability, and if. DOE tends to go that way, then we will j 20 probably move our program in that direction, so we'll be in l 21 a position to review it. But we're not going to be probably 22 out ahead of DOE on these particular issues.
23 DR. FAIRHURST: No , I agree, not out ahead, but at 24 least giv: 9g some insights into weights or various -- I !
25 don't want to call them risks or what, but just where the l
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l 42 1 potential is. For example, to reduce uncertainties through 2 engineered barriers or through similar -- just to get an 3 idea of what level, for example, of infiltration would be 4 such that from that point on wouldn't likely violate, you 5 know, the regulation or standard.
6 DR. McCONNELL: I think we have that capability.
7 Maybe we need to demonstrate what we have.
8 i DR. FAIRHURST: I would like to see something 9 indicating what that is, for that specific part of it, .
10 because I think that from that point on if, for example, you 11 can show that you can avoid a critical rate of inflow, then 12 things beyond that become a little less -- I'm not saying 13 that they're not important, but that becomes a particular 14 cutoff.
15 Let me ask another couple questions. At some 16 point -- right now in a probably very constructive way 17 you're having a dialogue with DOE about how they're moving 18 forward and so on, but at what point, and I also see that 19 there's a mention of 2001, I thought it was 2002 that you're 20 going to get the license --
21 MS. LUI: Okay. Are you talking about the last .
22 entry on the schedule?
23 DR. FAIRHURST: I'm talking about safety -- I'm -
24 talking about license application as you'd get it in 2002, 25 right?
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43 1 MS. LUI: Right. Right.
I heard it
/5(2 DR. FAIRHURST: You didn't put 2001.
1 3 - earlier as . a- --
4 MS. LUI: Okay,.2000 -- okay, September 30, 2001, J 5 that's when we' plan to publish Rev. 2 of the Yucca Mountain u
-6 Review Plan. That's about five.or six months ahead of the 1
7 expected license application.
8 DR. FAIRHURST: Okay. So it's the review plan
. 9 that you're going to concentrate on.
10 MS. LUI: Right.
11 DR. FAIRHURST: Okay.
l l
12 MS. LUI: Right.
13 DR.-FAIRHURST: And at what point before that do 14 you feel that you have to sort of cut off dialogue with them i
/~'h15 so that -- at some point they have to move independently 16 from you, present something that you are going to then
~
17- independently review; right? i l !
l 18 DR. McCONNELL: Yes, I think that -- I think our l \
l 19 position is we're doing that now, that they have to do their i i
- 20. work to demonstrate safety. We're doing our work to build !
21 our. capability to have the independent review there. But 22 this can't proceed without some interaction.
23 DR. FAIRHURST: Right. That's what I'm getting l
24 at.
25 DR. McCONNELL: And that's where we are. And I ;
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44 l 1 don't think at least, I could be corrected, I don't think we 2 anticipate cutting off the prelicensing consultations at any 3 point right now.
4 DR. FAIRHURST: Okay.
5 DR. GARRICK: Ray.
6 DR. WYMER: I've been waiting to see some of the 7 criteria that you use to evaluate the license application 8 sharply enough drawn that anybody who looks at them can 9 decide exactly what they have to do in order to satisfy the .
10 criteria. I presume they'll come sort of in a general sense 11 from the KTIs and the related types of things.
12 MS. LUI: Okay. I'm not sure if you are familiar 13 with the work that has already been done by KTIs such as 14 effects on flow and container life and source term.
15 DR. WYMER: In a general sense.
16 MS. LUI: The attempt is to integrate the 17 acceptance criteria and review methods currently in those 18 IRSRs as the first step towards what's going to be in the 19 review plan. In fact, if you spent a little bit of time 20 looking at the example, as the backup slides to this 21 particular package, you will probably get a flavor of the 22 path that the staff is taking.
23 DR. WYMER: Yes. It seems to me those criteria -
24 are fundamentally important.
25 MS. LUI: Right. Those acceptance criteria are ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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1 l
45 1 basically formulated to address the technical requirements ;
,f ] 2 in the. rule. You will find'a. lot more detail in the review
\- 3 methods or review procedulus that are associated with each 1
4 of the-acceptance criteria.
i <
5 DR. FAIRHURST: With the intrusive events, we'd l 6 .. rely be talking'about vulcanism and things of this kind, l 7 but how are you going to deal with -- I heard expert group, 8 but with human intrusion?
. 9 MS. LUI: Human intrusion is a stylized lLO analysis --
11 DR. FAIRHURST: Of a single hole,.right?
12 MS. LUI: Right, a single bore hole, right. And 13 in the --'I have a place in mind. I mean, that's me
(
l 14 speaking, for where it is going o appear. In fact, you can '
(h15 probably see that cn1 page -- I forgot which page -- it's l b 16 page 13 o B-1.
17 It did not show, it did not say h .aan intrusion i
18 but 63.113(d).is a post-closure per:armance objective. l 19 DR. FAIRHURST: 63.113 (d) ?
20 MS. LUI: (d) as in " David" is performance 21 objet a for evaluation of human rusion.
22 DR. FAIRHURST: And does that stylizing involve 23 penetrating a waste package or something like that?
l 24 MS. LUI: Yes.
25 DR. FAl .1ST: Okay.
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! 46 l
1 MS. LUI: So it is incorporated but again this is 2 a work in progress so we don't have the detail for you at 3 this point but as we develop more detail we will come back 4 and talk to you about it.
5 DR. FAIRHURST: But presumably it would involve 6 bringing cuttings to the surface that are radioactive? It 7 didn't involve any flow?
8 DR. McCONNELL: Tim?
9 MR. McCARTIN: Well, to an extent but the critical .
10 group is still the same as what is done for post-closure and i
11 we would not expect any drill cuttings at the surface to ]
l 12 have any significant impact at 20 kilometers away. I 13 DR. FAIRHURST: Right, okay. 3 14 MR. McCARTIN: There isn't -- the stylized 15 calculation uses the biosphere critical group assumptions as i 16 is done in the PA, so there isn't another -- there isn't an 17 attempt to look at for example the well drilling crew.
i 18 There is not a dose to the well drilling crew. I 19 DR. FAIRHURST: Maybe I am naive, but what impact 20 could human intrusion have --?
21 MR. McCARTIN: Well, as the NAS recommended, the 22 desire of this calculation was to see the resiliency of the 23 repository for the critical group and not necessarily trying -
24 to look at, say, what would happen to the well drilling 25 crew, whatever, so it is looking to see would a single ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
Court Reporters 1025 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 1014 Washington, D.C. 20036 (202) 842-0034
l 47 1 penetration of the repository so degrade the performance
/'~'g 2 that the critical group would be adversely affected and --
(~/ ' 3 . FAIRHURST: I see, okay.
4 MR. McCARTIN: My understanding that part of that 5 was a reaction to the experience at WIPP, where a well 6 penetration was the only significant source of getting 7 consequences and that is pretty much where the !
8 recommendation came,from, but it was looking at the overall 9 repository performance in the context of the overall l 10 performance assessment.
11 DR. FAIRHURST: As I recall, in the TYMS report, 12 there was a suggestion that one consider a second well if 13 the effects were not additive.
14 In other words if some mechanism for release were ,
1
[ 15 generated which would not be there by the one, which is I
16 again coming back from WIPP.
17 MR. McCARTIN: Yes.
18 DR, FAIRHURST: E-1, E-2 thing where two wells 19 causes --
20 MR. McCARTIN: Right.
21 DR. FAIRHURST: But it seems like it is a very 22- different kettle of fish.
23 DR. GARRICK: When you talk about a stylized 24 scenario, how far can you take it? Drilling a hole into a 25 canister is one thing, drilling a hole into a canister and
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f' 48 1 bringing cuttings up to the surface is another thing and 2 drilling a hole and bringing cuttings up to the surface and 3 having a rain-out and a stream is a third thing and so on 4 and so forth.
5 MR. McCARTIN: Right. Well, the way we have 6 proposed it in Part 63, and we will be interested to see 7 what kinds of comments we will get, which we have not gotten 8 any to date, but on the stylized calculation but we are 1 l
9 assuming a somewhat typical drilling event where the . )
i 10 cuttings would go up to the surface.
11 We would not suggest that the cuttings, say, go 12 down to the water table, but we would expect a penetration 13 through the waste canister all the way to the water table so 14 you now have a relatively fast path of potential ingress of 15 some water from the surface to the waste package and to the 16 water table, and you would be examining that particular 17 event.
18 DR. GARRICK: So in principle you could have a 19 couple of pathways.
20 You could have a pathway -- I am thinking of to 21 the critical group -- you could have a surface pathway and .
22 you could have a groundwater pathway.
23 DR. HORNBERGER: A surface puchway airborne? -
24 DR. GARRICK: Well, either airborne or liquid.
25 DR. FAIRHURST: Where, on the surface?
l 4
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49 1 DR. GARRICK: Well, what happens when it rains?
g'~Ng 2 DR. HORNBERGER: In the Amargosa Valley there is
-- 3 no strei.m.
L l
l 4 MR. McCARTIN: We are not anticipating any impact l
5 from th e surf ace cuttings but you' re right. I mean there is 6 a potertial. ,
l
- 7. DR. FAIRHURST: There is another big difference I
8 between WIPP and Yucca Mountain and that is what you put the
.. 9 waste :Ln.
I 10 We're having what? -- 10 to 20 centimeters 11 stainless steel and then C-22 alloy, so for a long period of 12 time the probability of a drill ever getting through that is 13 extremely small.
14 If you take standard drilling practice, the moment 5 anything hits a. metallic it wrecks, so --
16 DR. HORNBERGER: Titanium shields.
17 DR. FAIRHURST: There's titanium shield, the lot,
-18 you know?
19 DR. HORNBERGER: Steel, thick steel.
20 DR. FAIRHURST: These are 55 gallon drums at 21' WIPP --
22 DR. GARRICK: Yes, but the concentrations between 23 the two are widely different.
24 DR. FAIRHURST: I agree.
25 MR. McCARTIN: It certainly is conservative to
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l l
50 1 assume at an early time someone can drill through that 2 container. It would take a fairly --
3 DR. FAIRHURST: Aggressive?
4 MR. McCARTIN: -- cedicated well drill team.
5 [ Laughter.]
6 DR. HORNBERGER: A laser drill in the next 7 century.
8 DR. GARRICK: All right. Any other comments, 9 questions -- any questions from the Staff? ,
10 DR. CAMPBELL: Yes. One of the areas when the 11 committee reviewed the viability assessment we also looked 12 at the IRSRs in Rev. 1 to the IRSRs and you mentioned the 13 alternative models that are part of the review methods as {
l I
14 DOE considered alternative models.
15 When I read that in -- there is some version of it 1 16 in each of the IRSRs -- it appeared not to be the intent of )
17 the Staff to say that they had to use the most conservative 18 conceptual model, so in reviewing whether or not DOE has (
i 19 considered appropriately the alternative conceptual models 20 obviously you have in your mind some concept of probability 21 for the different conceptual models, and I was wondering how .
22 that is factored in and where it may come from.
23 MS. LUI: That probability or the nonexistence of -
24 that probability basically depends on our current 25 understanding, our current belief of what is most likely ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
Court Reporters 1025 Connecticut Avenue, NW, Suite 1014 Washington, D.C. 20036 (202) 842-0034
1 51 1 going to happen.
-~s 2 You can always assume the worst case scenario --
,N- -) 3 DR. GARRICK: You're already got it --
I 4 MS. LUI: -- like for example take, say, wind j 5 direction, wind rows. It is not likely that a wind row 6 always blows toward the critical group but there are aspects 7 in DOE's analysis that they can decide, okay, we are just-8 going use that or we are trying to defend what is going or
. 9 what'is not going to happen, let's just take what we believe )
10 at this point is going to be the most conservative approach, 21 -so it's going to be a knowledge dependence there.
12 DR. GARRICK: It isn't in here? I 13 DR. McCONNELL: Yes, I think DOE if they want to ;
14 can take a bounding approach to particular issues or factors :
/'~'15 including conceptual models and so we are not telling them N~-)16 they have to do that, but we are also not limiting their 17 flexibility in doing that in particular <reas where they may 18 not want to narrow the uncertainty. They may just want to l 19 bound the problem. I don't know whether we are addressing i
20 your question or not.
21 DR. HORNBERGER: I was just going to say it ties 22 in with that question, I can ask it in this context, that 23 -Andy did.
24 Of course there are similar questions that one can 25 ask about all the acceptance criteria, which are a lot of
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52 1 them are you are going to judge that DOE has presented 2 sufficient data to support the conceptual model or the model 3 for seepage into a drift, et cetera, et cetera, and it is 4 one of these things where it is I don't know how to define 5 it but I will know it when I see it, you know? I will know 6 it is sufficient when I see it, and the question is, as Andy 7 said, with different conceptual models somewhere cack there 8 you are either going -- you either have a notion that yes, 9 an equivalent continuum is reasonable for this place, and if , !
1 10 they have that as their primary model it is okay, or you 11 say, boy, an equivalent continuum model just won't do and if 12 DOE comes forward with that, that is not going to be i
)'
13 sutficient, so you have in your mind already -- you have to 14 have a subjective probability associated with all these 15 things.
16 I think this is probably okay as long as the q i
17 license application does in fact come through in 2002 18 because there will be corporate memory here and you people 19 have interacted. If for some reason the license application 20 doesn't come through until 2012, which we may laugh at now i
21 but it is not all that inconceivable given the history of l 22 the program shall I say --
23 There will be limited corporate memory and some of - l 24 these ideas may change. Maybe that's okay, too.
25 MS. LUI: Well, I hear what you're saying, Dr.
I l
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53 I
1 Hornberg r, but we all have-to understand that the 1
(N 2 ' performance assessment, why is it kind of not as transparent l
(x ') 3 to outsiders, because there are so much interdependency on 4 the various parts. DOE ma; elect to do a conservative 5 analysis for one part because they are being, quote unquote, 6 as realistic as possible to other parts, or they may change 7 their approach. So there will be billions of permutations 8 out there. It will be extremely difficult for us to write
- 9 down every single thing.
10 DR. McCONNELL: Yes. And I think we're trying to 11 use the issue-resolution status report too as a mechanism 12 for documenting some cf the thought process that's going 13: along. So hopefully if it does --
14 DR. HORNBERGER: Which is more important, because,
(*\ 15 as Christiana said -- I agree; I wasn't suggesting that you b 16 could write all this down. You can't. You're doing what 17 you can. But it's still this philosophical question you're 18 left with. And I think that that's right. If you write I
19 down the thought proces's, that's the best record you can j 20 have.
21 DR. CAMPBELL: Are you guys going to still brief 22 the Committee on sensitivity studies from TPA 3.2 in the 23 near future? Is that still on the books for San Antonio?
2 <4 DR. McCONNELL: I believe it is; yes. We intend 25 to do that. We have an interchange with DOE at the end of g' ANN RILEY & ASSOCIATES, LTD.
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54 1 the month, and then depending on I think the Committee's 2 agenda, I think we'll try to fit in as much as we can. But 3 I think we'll have to talk to you and find out what your 4 schedule's like.
5 DR. CAMPBELL: Because it might be very useful.
6 DR. WYMER: We have been after that for a long 7 time.
8 DR. McCONNELL: Okay.
9 DR. GARRICK: Any other questions or comments from .
10 Committee staff? Anybody from the aucience?
11 If not, we want to thank you. I don't think at I?. this point you're asking for a letter. Unless we in our 13 discussions of it find some issues that we feel very 14 concerned about and want to call to the Commission's 15 attention, we'll take this as information for now, and 16 expect to hear from you again.
17 Okay.
18 MS. LUI: Okay.
19 DR. GARRICK: Okay. Thank you very much.
20 MS. LUI: Thank you.
21 DR. GARRICK: Let's see what's on our agenda now. ,
22 DR. FAIRHURST: Thr. *s it.
23 DR. GARRICK:- It's up to Charles. Do you want to -
24 do your reports as we had planned tomorrow when you do the 25 rest?
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k
F t 55
-1 DR..FAIRHURST: Sure. Yes, because I'll have
' copies of the white paper too, but we can talk about that
(N 2 - .
\-- 3 later.
4 '- DR. GARRICK: In view of that, and unless there's 5 further comment, questions, we will adjourn.
'6 [Whereupon, at 5:2.0 p.m., the meeting was 7 concluded.)
~8
. 9 10 11 12 13 14' 15 16 l
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REPORTE!('S CERTIFICATE This is to certify that the attached proceedings before the United-States Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the matter of:
NAME OF PROCEEDING: MEETING: 109th ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON NUCLEAR WASTE (ACNW)
. CASE NUMBER:
PLACE OF PROCEEDING: Rockville, MD were held as herein appears, and that this is the original transcript thereof for the file of the United States Nuclear a Regulatory Commission taken by me and thereafter reduced to typewriting by me oi .inder the direction of the court reporting company, and that the transcript is a true and I
accurate record of the foregoing proceedings.
b %_
Mark Mahoney Official Reporter Ann Riley & Associates, Ltd.
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