ML20196G171
| ML20196G171 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Seabrook  |
| Issue date: | 02/26/1988 |
| From: | Fierce A MASSACHUSETTS, COMMONWEALTH OF |
| To: | Harbour J, Linenberger G, Smith I Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20196G158 | List: |
| References | |
| OL, NUDOCS 8803070058 | |
| Download: ML20196G171 (17) | |
Text
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000KETED USNRC UNITED STATES OF' AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION.
18 WW -3 P2 :37 ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD OFFICE G? SECPOMY 00CKEimG A SEHvlCE Before Administrative Judges:
BRANCH Ivan W.
Smith, Chairman
-Gustave A.
Linenberger, Jr.
Dr. Jerry Harbour
)
In the Matter of
)
Docket Nos.
)
50-443/444-OL PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF
)
(Off-site EP)
)
(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2
)
February 26, 1988
)
OFFER OF PROOF P
(Massachusetts Attorney General James M. Shannon's Proposed _Surrebuttal Testimony to Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony Nos 3 and 4) s 7
The Massachusetts Attorney General, James M. Shannon, hereby submits as an offer of proof a summary of the proposed surrebuttal testimony of Dr. Gary Simon, Dr. Stephen Cole, and Dr. Albert Luloff, testimony which the Mass. Attorney General would have presented if the Board, on February 10, 1988, had not denied leave to do so.
I.
BACKGROUND The Mass. Attorney General's request for leave to file this surrebuttal testimony arose out of the following sequence of evidentiary events at the NHRERP hearings.
In September 1987, 8803070050 880226j 43 DR ADOCK 0
the Applicants, State of New Hampshire, and Intervenors filed their. direct testimony simultaneously.. Among the-pieces of direct testimony filed by.the Mass. AG at that time were:
1.-
the testimony and attachments of a panel comprised of Drs. Donald.Zeigler, James Johnson, and Stephen Cole; and 2.
-the testimony and attachments of Dr. Albert E.
Luloff.
The Zeigler/ Johnson / Cole testimony was based, to some extent, on the results of a telephone survey conducted by Social Data Analysts, Inc., under the direction of Dr. Cole.
The survey methodology and results'were described in detail in a survey report received in evidence on December 15, 1987, as Attachment 5 to the testimony.
Similarly, the testimony of Dr. Luloff was based, to some extent, on the results of a beach survey his firm, AEL Associates, had conducted, and the beach survey results and methodology were described in detail in a report received in evidence on December 17, 1987, as Attachment 4 to his' testimony.
On December 15-16, 1987, the Applicants cross examined the Zeigler/ Johnson / Cole panel, and on December 17, 1987, they cross examined Dr. Luloff.
Subsequently, the Board established January 22, 1988, as the deadline for filing rebuttal testimony regarding all previously admitted testimony in the NHRERP hearings.
On or
)
'A:
about that-date, the Applicants submitted rebuttal testimony 1I
'from Drs.' Bruce' Spencer and Dennis Mileti challenging the internal and external validity of both the Cole survey and the Luloff Survey, By implication, the credibility of the testimony of Drs. Cole and Luloff was also challenged.
On February 8, 1988, this rebuttal testimony was received in evidence, and Drs. Spencer and Cole were cross-examined on February 8 and 9,.1988.
Prior.to this cross-examination on February 8,'however, the Mass. Attorney General indicated to the Board its interest in filing surrebuttal testimony to address the charges made in the Spencer /Mileti rebuttal.
Tr. 9159.
On February 10, 1988, the Mass. Attorney General's request for leave to file this surrebuttal testimony was discussed again, Tr. 9633 et seq.;
and the Board denied the request, Tr. 9774.
The Board indicated, however, that the Mass. Attorney General could make an offer of proof regarding the substance of the rebuttal testimony that would have been filed.
Tr. 9775.
That offer of proof is set forth below.
1/
Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 3 (Rebuttal to the Testimony of Zeigler, Johnson and Cole regarding the SDA Telephone Survey conducted for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts), admitted on February 8, 1988 (ff. Tr. 9154);
and Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 4 (Rebuttal to the Corrected Testimony of Dr. Albert E. Luloff Regarding the Beach Blanket Survey Conducted for the Commonwealth of Massachusets admitted on February 8, 1988 (ff. Tr. 9155).
4 4. -..
II.
Summary of the Proposed Surrebuttal Testimony A.
Witnesses This testimony would have been presented by a panel consisting of Dr. Gary Simon, Dr. Stephen Cole, and Dr. Albert E.
Luloff.
Dr. Simon is an associate professor in the Department of Statistica and Operations Research of the Graduate School of Business Administration, New York University.
He has received a B.S.
degree in mathematics from Carnegie Mellon University and a Ph.D in statistics in 1971 from Stanford University.
He has taught and worked in the field of statistics since 1971.
He was an associate editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association from 1979-1983-and he has published numerous articles in this field.
Drs. Cole and Luloff have testified previously in this proceeding, and their resumes have been submitted as attachments to their previous testimony.
B.
Topics addressed t
1.
Drs. Mileti and Spencer assert that behavioral intention surveys are of no value in predicting behavior during actual emergencies.
The Simon / Cole /Luloff panel would disagree, noting inter alla that the resu1*.s of behavioral intentions surveys correspond closely with the actual behavior l
of people during the emergency at Three Mile Island.
Because 4-
t e
emergency planners do not need to know' exactly what percentage of the population would engage in a particular emergency response (e.g., voluntary evacuation or car abandonment) but instead need'to know generally what the population will tend to I
'do, behavioral intentions surveys can be extremely helpful to emergency planners if'the surveys are professionally done and P
steps are taken to minimize potentially significant biases.
Both the Cole survey and the Luloff survey were done professionally in a manner which is consistent with the standards of the professional survey research industry, and steps were taken as to each survey which sought to minimize potential significant biases.
2.
Drs. Spencer and Mileti seem to argue that in comparison to the "high" quality data generated by such surveys as those conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau, the Cole and Luloff surveys produced worthless "low" quality data because their results were potentially biased by systematic error.
The Simon / Cole /Luloff panel would present some evidence showing that even surveys such as those conducted by the census Bureau have much systematic error, yet governments at all levels use these surveys for making all sorts of important policy j
decisions.
The point is that while all surveys can be
-criticized, the degree and nature of the systematic error and its potential impact on the results needs to be considered in light of the decisionmaker's needs for information before using f
7,
~
or rejecting' survey data. If important. policy or planning
. decisions need to be made, and the alternative sources of
~
information'are judged to be less reliable than the survey data at hand, the~ survey data may be the "best" data available.
For example, in these proceedings the question has been raised:
Will people abandon their cars in significant numbers if they are stuck in traffic and make little'or no progress after an hour, two hours, etc.?
This is a legitimate critical question, and the planners must respond to'it.
So far, those who have put together the NHRERP have answered this question with a simple "no,"
for they are assuming that virtua111y all evacuees will stay with their cars, no matter how long it takes to drive out.
This assumption has been incorporated implicitly into the ETE study contained in Volume 6 of the NHRERP.
The Board must now decide if this assumption was reasonable.
Because no previous vehicular evacuation ever had the kind of long-lasting traffic jams expected to occur if an evacuation of the Seabrook beach areas occurs on a busy summer weekend, no conjecture or speculation based on what happened during previous evacuations is particularly reliable.
The data from the Luloff beach survey, with whatever arguable flaws it.may have (which are minor), is by far the "best" data available on this point.
While decisionmakers may want to doubt that ___-_
.L..
-exactly X% will abandon their cars, they would be imprudent to reject the Luloff survey because of the claimed potential systematic bias identified _by Drs. Spencer and Mileti.
Because ithat potential errorLis-minor, and no better data exists, the prudent course is to assume that some significant percentage of those stuck in traffic during an evacuation from Seabrook will abandon their cars..
4.
The criticism that the Cole survey did not seek a random sample of heads of. households is unfounded because it does not understand the aim of the survey.
The survey aimed at getting information on a random sample of households, the unit the Zeigler/ Johnson / Cole panel believed to be most relevant for assessing the responses of the permanent population during a radiological emergency.
The survey sought informants to describe what the randomly selected households would do.
5.
Dr. Spencer has criticized the Luloff beach survey because it was not a pure randon sample.
Dr. Luloff would testify that he never said it was.
Instead, it was intended to be a systematic random sample, a recognized methodology used when pure random sampling procedures are difficult or costly i
and the informational needs do not require the statistical accuracy a pure random sample can provide.
For example, when foresters wish to assess the commercial prospects of a given 7-
i
~.
stand of mixed. timber, they' survey the area using what they-I call the timber cruise methodology, which assesses the trees I
i
~
using an ob'jective systematically' selected sample rather than a pure random sample of the trees in the forest.
Such an objective systematic methodology provides reasonably accurate information at a fraction of the cost and effort of a purely random sampling technique.- To conduct a pure random sample of the people on the New Hampshire beaches over the course of a full summer would be exceedingly difficult if not impossible to-do,.given that the population is constantly in flux.
If it is possible to conduct such a survey, the costs involved would be prohibitive and would not be justified by the current-informational needs of decisionmakers, including this Board, to know generally'about people on the beaches, their modes of and J
access to transportation, and their likely responses to orders l
to evacuate or shelter during an emergency at Seabrook.
For L
example, what the Board and safety planners need to know now, in assessing the Volume 6 ETE study, is not what exact percentage of the evacuees will obey traffic guides, but whether one should assume that all drivers will do so, the assumption made in the ETE study.
One does not need a i
i
$100,0002 survey using a purely random sample to answer a question such as this.
The methodology applied in the Luloff l
beach survey is a reasonable approach.
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-,r m -., m nm -, - -, -.,,.,.
.-n.
6.
The c.iticism about the computation of the sampling error for the Cole and Luloff surveys seems to be based on a misunderstanding of what was actua11y'done.
The panel would show'that computing the sampling errors in a more sophisticated statistical way will yield approximately the same result as the techniques utilized by Des. Cole and Luloff.
7.
The criticisms of internal validity based upon the wording of questions or their location in the surveys are simply the subjective opinions of Dr. Mileti, hardly an unbiased reviewer.
In fact, there was no intent whatsoever to use biased questions, or to place them-in a particular sequence L
to generate a particule.r result.
Indeed, they were standard questions utilized previously in surveys of this type.
Further, the panel would reference other surveys, including some conducted by utility companies, to demonstrate that results similar to those produced by the Cole survey have been found in a wide variety of surveys.
Therefore, it is unlikely that any inadvertent bias which is claimed to have been inherent in the wording of the instrument had significant impact on the results.
Respectfully submitted, By:
h Allan R.
Fierch Assistant Attorney General Nuclear Safety Unit Department of the Attorney General One Ashurton place Boston, MA 02108 (617) 727-2220 i
Dated:
February 26, 1988 1
e 00CKETED UNITED STATES OF~ AMERICA USNRC NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION g
,,3 jg 0FFICE 0T SIUIUfW 00CKEltN!i a SERVICT.
)
BRANC'i
~
In the Matter of
)
-)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW.
)
Docket No.(s) 50-443/444-OL HAMPSHIRE, ET AL.-
)
- (Seabrook Station, Units 1~and.2)
)'
)
)
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I, Carol S.
Sneider, hereby certify that on February 24, 1988, I made service of the within documents:
(1)
Attorney General James M.
Shannon's Off-Site EP i
Interrogatories and Request for the Production of Documents to the State of New Hampshire (Set 3); and (2)
Attorney General James M.
Shannon's Off-Site EP Interrogatories and Request for the Production of Documents to the f
Applicants (Set 3), by mailing copies tnereof, postage prepaid, by first class mail, by Federal Express to those individuals as indicated by *, or by hand to those individuals as indicated by **:
Ivan Smith, Chairman Gustave A. Linenberger, Jr.
Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Atomic Safety & Licensing Board i
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission Commission East West Towers Building i
East West Towers Building 4350 East West Highway 4
i 4350 East West Highway Bethesda, MD 20814 Bethesda, MD 20814 Dr. Jerry Harbour Sherwin E.
Turk, Esq.
l Atomic Safety & Licensing Board U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission l
U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Office of General Counsel Commission 15th Floor - One White Flint North East West Towers Building 11555 Rockville Pike I
4350 East West Highway Rockville, MD 20852 Bethesda, MD 20814 l
H. Joseph'Flynn, Esq.
- Stephen E.
Merrill Assistant General-Counsel Attorney General Office of.GeneralLCounsel George Dana Bisbee Federal Emergency Management Assistant Attorney General Office of the Attorney General
. Agency 500 C Street,- S.W.
25 Capitol Street Washington, DC 20472.
Concord, NH- 03301 DocketingLand Service Paul A'.
Fritzsche, Esq.
U.S.-Nuclear Regulatory
~ Office of the Public Advocate:
-Commission State House Station 112 Washington, DC..
20555 Augusta, ME 04333 Roberta C.
Pevear Diana P. Randall State Representative 70 Collins Street Town of Hampton Falls Seabrook, NH_ 03874 Drinkwater Road Hampton Falls, NH 03844 Atomic Safety & Licensing Robert A. Backus, Esq.
Appeal Board Panel Backus, Meyer & Solomon U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory 116 Lowell Street Commission P.O.
Box 516 Washington, DC 20555 Manchester, NH 03106 Atomic Safety & Licensing Jane Doughty Board Panel Seacoast Anti-Pollution League U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory 5 Market Street Commission Portsmouth, NH 03801 Washington, DC 20555 Paul McEachern, Esq.
J.
P.
Nadeau Matthew T.
Brock, Esq.
Board of Selectmen Shaines & McEachern 10 Central Road 25 Maplewood Avenue Rye, NH 03870 P.O.
Box 360 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Sandra Gavutis, Chairperson Calvin A. Canney Board of Selectmen City Manager RFD 1, Box 1154 City Hall Rte. 107 126 Daniel Street E. Kingston, NH 03827 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Angelo Machiros, Chairman U.S.
Senate Board of Selectmen Washington, DC 20510 25 High Road (Attn: Tom Burack)
Newbury, MA 10950 Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Edward G. Molin 1 Eagle Square, Suite 507 Mayor concord, NH 03301 City Hall i
(Attn: Herb Boynton)
Newburyport, MA 01950 t
Donald E. Chick William Lord' Town Manager Board of Selectmen Town of Exeter Town Hall
- 101 Front Street Friend Street Exeter, NH 03833 Amesbur'y, MA 01913 Brentwood Board of Selectmen.
Gary W. Holmes, Esq.
RFD Dalton Road Holmes & Ellis
.Brentwood, NH 03833-47 Winnacunnet Road Hampton, NH 03841 Philip Ahrens, Esq.
Diane Curran, Esq.
Assistant Attorney General' Harmon & Weiss Department of the Attorney Suite 430 General 2001 S Street, N.W.
State House Station 46 Washington, DC 20009
. Augusta, ME 04333 j
- Thomas G.
Dignan, Esq.
Richard A.
Hampe, Esq.
R.K. Gad III, Esq.
Hampe & McNicholas Ropes & Gray 35 Pleasant Street 225 Franklin Street Concord, NH 03301 Boston, MA 02110 Beverly Hollingworth Edward A.
Thomas 209 Winnacunnet-Road Federal Emergency Management Hampton, NH 03842 Agency 442 J.W.
McCormack (POCH)
Boston, MA 02109 William Armstrong Michael Santosuosso, Chairman Civil Defense Director Board of Selectmen Town of Exeter Jewell Street, RFD 2 10 Front Street South Hampton, NH 03827 Exeter, NH 03833 Robert-Carrigg, Chairman Anne E. Goodman, Chairperson Board of Selectmen Board of Selectmen Town Office 13-15 Newmarket Road Atlantic Avenue Durham, NH 03824 North Hampton, NH 03862 Allen Lampert Sheldon J. Wolfe, Chairperson Civil Defense Director Atomic Safety and Licensing Town of Brentwood Board Panel 20 Franklin Street U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory
~Exete::, NJ 03833 Commission Washington, DC 20555 Dr. Emmeth A.
Luebke Charles P. Graham, Esq.
5500 Friendship Boulevard McKay, Murphy & Graham Apartment 1923 Old Post Office Square Chevy Chase, MD 100 Main Street Amesbury, MA 01913
gri Judith H.-Mizner, Esql Silvergate,-.Gertner, Baker,
. Fine, Geod & Mizner 88-Broad 1 Street-
~
Boston,' MA: 02110
'l c
. (L s c '\\ ' '3
, A C, f' l Carol S. Sneider Assistant Attorney General' 11uclear Safety Unit Department-of the Attorney _ General
'One Ashburton Place Boston,.MA 02108-1698 (617)'727-2265:
Dated:
February 26,-1988
8 i
UNITED STATES'OF' AMERICA.
gShhf NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 18 MM -3 P2 :38 -
0FFICE 0f SEUtiARY 00CKEilNG A SEHVICf.
t
)
BRANCH In-the Matter of
)
)
PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF NEW
)
Docket No.(s) 50-443/444-OL~
)
(Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2)
)
)
)
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I,
Allan R.
Fierce, hereby certify that on February 26, 1988, I made service of the within (A) OFFER OF PROOF (Attorney. General James M.
Shannon's Proposed Surrebuttal Testimony to Applicants' Rebuttal l
Testimony Nos. 3 and 4); and (B}. corrected Certificate of Service to (1) Attorney General James M. Shannon's Off-Site EP Interrogatories
+
and Request for the Production of Documents to the State of New i
Hampshire (Set 3), and Attorney General James M. Shannon's Off-Site EP i
Interrogatories and Request for the Production of Documents to the Applicants (Set 3), by mailing copies thereof, postage prepaid, by j
1-first class mail, by Federal Express to those individuals as indicated
[
by *, or by hand to those individuals as indicated by **:
0
- Ivan Smith, Chairman
- Gustave A.
Linenberger, Jr.
Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Atomic Safety & Licensing Board U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission t
Commission East West Towers Building East West Towers Building 4350 East West Highway l
4350 East West Highway Bethesda, MD 20814 Bethesda, MD 20814
- Dr. Jerry. Harbour Sherwin E. Turk, Esq.
3 Atomic Safety & Licensing Board U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Office of General Counsel
[
Commission 15th Floor - One White Flint North East West Towers Building 11555 Rockville Pike f
4350 East West Highway Rockville, MD 20852 Bethesda, MD 20814 4
h
a H. Joseph Flynn, Esq.
Stephen E.
Merrill
' Assistant.Goneral Counsel Attorney General Office of General Counsel George Dana Bisbee Federal Emergency Management-Assistant Attorney General
-Agency Office-of the Attorney General-500 C Street, S.W.
25 Capitol Street Washington, DC 20472 Concord, NH 03301 Docketing.and Service Paul A. Fritzsche, Esq.
U.S.-Nuclear Regulatory Office of the Public Advocate Commission State House Station 112 Washington, DC.
20555 Augusta, ME 04333 Roberta C. Pevear Diana P. Randall State Representative 70 Collins Street Town of Hampton Falls Seabrook, NH 03874 Drinkwater Road Hampton Falls, NH 03844 Atomic Safety & Licensing Robert A. Backus, Esq.
Appeal Board Panel Backus, Meyer & Solomon U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory 116 Lowell Street Commission P.O.
Box 516 Washington, DC 20555 Manchester, NH 03106 Atomic Safety & Licensing Jane Doughty Board Panel Seacoast Anti-Pollution League U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory 5 Market Street Commission Portsmouth, NH 03801 Washington, DC 20555 Paul McEachern, Esq.
J.
P.
Nadeau Matthew T.
Brock, Esq.
Board of Selectmen Shaines & McEachern 10 Central Road 25 Maplewood Avenue Rye, NH 03870 P.O.
Box 360 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Sandra Gavutis, Chairperson Calvin A. Canney Board of Selectmen City Manager RFD 1, Box 1154 City Hall Rte. 107 126 Daniel Street E.
Kingston, NH 03827 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Angelo Machiros, Chairman U.S.
Senate Board of Selectmen Washington, DC 20510 25 High Road (Attn: Tom Burack)
Newbury, MA 10950 Senator Gordon J.
Humphrey Edward G. Molin 1 Eagle Square, Suite 507 Mayor Concord, NH 03301 City Hall (Attn: Herb Boynton)
Newburyport, MA 01950
-l s Donald E. Chick' William' Lord
- Town Manager.
Board of Selectmen-
. Town of Exeter Town Hall-10 Front Street Friend. Street Exeter, NH. 03833 Amesbury, MA 01913 Brentwood Board of Selectmen
~ Gary W. Holmes, Esq.
RFD Dalton Road Holmes & Ellis.
Brentwood, NH 03833 47 Winnacunnet Road Hampton, NH 03841 Philip Ahrens, Esq.
Diane Curran, Esq.
Assistant Attorney General Harmon & Weiss Department of-the Attorney Suite 430 General 2001 S Street, N.W.
State House Station #6 Washington, DC 20009 Augusta, ME 04333 Thomas G. Dignan, Esq.
Richard A.
Hampe, Esc.
R.K. Gad III, Esq.
Hampe & McNicholas Ropes & Gray 35 Pleasant Street 225 Franklin Street Concord, NH 03301 Boston, MA 02110 Beverly Hollingworth Edward A. Thomas 209 Winnacunnet Road Federal Emergency Management Hampton, NH 03842 Agency 442 J.W. McCormack (POCH)
Boston, MA 02109 William Armstrong Michael Santosuosso, Chairman Civil Defense Director Board of Selectmen Town of Exeter Jewell Street, RFD 2 10 Front Street South Hampton, NH 03827 Exeter, NH 03833 Robert Carrigg, Chairman Anne E. Goodman, Chairperson Board of Selectmen Board of Selectmen Town Office 13-15 Newmarket Road Atlantic Avenue Durham, NH 03824 North Hampton, NH 03862 Allen Lampert Sheldon J. Wolfe, Chairperson Civil Defense Director Atomic Safety and Licensing Town of Brentwood Board Panel 20 Franklin Street U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Exeter, NJ 03833 Commission Washington, DC 20555 Dr. Emmeth A.
Luebke Charles P. Graham, Esq.
5500 Friendship Boulevard McKay, Murphy & Graham Apartment 1923 Old Post Office Square Chevy Chase, MD 100 Main Street Amesbury, MA 01913
[
Judith'H.-Mizner,'Esq.
Silvergate,.Gertner,' Baker, I
Fine, Good & Mizner 88 Broad Street Boston, MA 02110 L
M
.Allan R.
Fierce ~
Assistant Attorney General Nuclear Safety Unit Department of the Attorney Generala~,
One Ashburton Place Boston, MA.02108-1698 (617) 727-1090 Dated:
February 26, 1988-km
.d