ML20149F240

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Rejected Intervenor Exhibit I-COMM-11,consisting of Sept 1987 Rept Entitled, Rept on Population Growth in New Hampshire Epz. Related Correspondence
ML20149F240
Person / Time
Site: Seabrook  NextEra Energy icon.png
Issue date: 12/17/1987
From: Luloff A
AEL ASSOCIATES
To:
References
OL-I-COMM-011, OL-I-COMM-11, NUDOCS 8802120105
Download: ML20149F240 (159)


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REPORT ON POPULATION GRONTH IN THE '

NEW HAMPSHIRE EPZ t

PERFORMED FOR THE DEPARTMENT OF THE ATTORNEY GENERAL COMMONWEALTH OF MASSACHUSETTS ,

By Dr. Albert E. Luloff AEL Associates September 1987 1

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1 Report on Population Growth in the New Hampshire EPZ The New Hampshire EPZ includes the towns of Brentwood, East Kingston, Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, Hampton Falls, Kensington, Kingston, New Castle, Newfields, Newton, North Hampton, Rye, Seabrook, South Hampton, and Stratham, and the city of Portsmouth. This region includes approximately eighteen miles of beach area, and is traversed by two major North / South arteries, I-95 and US 1, and several state highways including 1.\

(North / South), and 286, 51, 101C, 101D, and 101E (which run East / West).

Rockingham County, home of the New Hampshire EPZ communities, has been the fastest growing county in the state i

since 1950, and experienced a 171.7% increase during the period 1950-1980 (Exhibit 2.1). Much of this growth is attributable to i migration. Because the county has good highway access, the Boston metropolitan area is within easy reach of moct of the communities in the county. The region is also marked by its valued residential ambience as signified by the numerous rankings of the area as a prime location in which to live and work (including the recent listings of INC. Magazine, Money Magazine, and U.S. News and World Report). Advantageous location with I respect to metropolitan proximity, seasonal recreational activities, and opportunities to own homes and businesses have all created an atmosphere conducive to rapid growth. And, the  ;

fact that New Hampshire rema. ins a "no tax state", in the sense 3

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that neither a broad based sales or income tax exists, aids in the perception of making the state that much more attractive.

Rockingham County has experienced a greater than t.ati,onal I

and regional rate of growth since the decade of the 1950's. Its decennial growth rate for the period 1950-1980 was 39.3% compared to the national average of 14.4% and regional average of 9.9% for j the same period. Further,.for the most recent decade, 1970-1980 for which U.S. Census data exist, Rockingham County alone.

accounted for more than 10% of the total New England population j growth (51,400 of 501,000) (Exhibit 2.1).

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Because the pattern and dynamic of growth in this area began earlier than data for the most recent-(1980 -

1985) time period might indicate (as in Volume 6, NHRERP, Rev. 2, P. 2-9),

compounded annual rates of growth, using both readily available New Hampshire Office of State Planning (OSP) estimates of population and U.S. Census data for each community in the EPZ, were developed for the period 1970-1985. Such data includes a longer time series of information than that which is restricted i

to only the most recent period (1980-1985). Because a major i

interest of this part of our research effort was in developing a series of population projections for each of the seventeen communities for planning purposes, we'have developed a series of population forecasts using various pieces of the 1970-1985 data set. It is our belief that the first necessity for the conduct of meaningful population forecasts is benchmark data. Since such data are readily available for the EPZ communities, compounded 4

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O O rates of growth using three time periods were developed: (1) the ,

1980-1985 period, as in Volume 6, NHRERP, Rev., P. 2-9, which uses Census 1980 data and OSP data for 1985 to anchor current,and i future values; '(2) the 1970-1980 period, which uses U.S. Census estimates for the ancitaring of current and future values; and (3) ,

the period 1970-1985, which includes 1970 and 1980 data from the U.S. Census and 1985 data from OSP (with 1970 data anchoring current value and 1985 the future value). By providing information on these three models for each of the seventeen towns in the EPZ and for the total area as a whole, a more informed planning approach is fostered.

Exhibit 2.2 contains a chart which forecasts population for short and long term planning horizons. All forecasts were back l

checked using the 1985 estimates to see if these numbers were in accord with OSP estimates for each town by year. With the J

exception of New Castle, Newfields, and Portsmouth, whose i

population estimates fluctuated widely between 1970 and 1985, the  !

forecasting procedure provided a good fit. An adjustment was  !

made to the size of Portsmouth's population based on three (1) a conversation with the Planning Office of the city factors:

i 1 of Portsmouth (May, 1987); (2) a smoothing effort to provide stability for the forecasting procedure; and (3) the fact that the city had experienced a strong recovery and spate of ,

development activity since the late 1960's and early 1970's.

Using OSP's estimate (26,675) represents an acceptance of a growth in population of 421 since the 1980 Census (which was 5

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taken April, 1979), or a .32% average annual rate of growth. The adjustment to 29,000 resulted in an averago annual rate of growth of 2.0%. We believe that the 2% annualized rate represents a more consistent' figure with the recent experience of the city, and better reflects OSP's own estimates for Portsmouth's population for the years 1981-1984. The rates of growth for the other EPZ area communities remain unaffected by this change, athough the area population totals obviously reflect the impact of which namber is used for the city of Portsmouth. OSP itself attributes a 2.94% average annual rate for Rockingham County for the period 1985-2010 in its recent report on projections for the state (Exhibit 2.9).

Forecasts based on data for only the most recent period ignore the long term experience of the seacoast area communities.

The selection of the most recent time span (1980-1985) for generating average annual rates of growth results in a set of liberal forecasts of population for the area as a whole.

However, upon examination of data for the seventeen EPZ area towns, twelve are found to experience the most conservative, i.e., the lowest, rate of growth when using the 1980-1985 time frame. In contradistinction, the use of the 1970-1980 time frame for estimating annual rates of growth produced the most conservative estimates in only five cases. On the other hand, forecasts using the 1970-1985 period tended, for each of the EPZ communities, to produce a more centrist (that is neither the most liberal nor most conservative) perspective on growth (Exhibit 6

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s 2.2). The difference among these three rates reflects, in large part, the growth of Portsmouth which in 1985 accounted for almost one-third of the entire EPZ area population, and which' had realized a gain'of more than 2,700 people during this time' span. .

In light of these differences, it would appear that the application of a gross trend, premised on the experience of one city in the seventeen town area, would produce unreasonably low forecasts of growth for the smaller communities. In part, this reinforces the general rule of using as much continuous information as available in forecasting small area populations (unless a disjoint or structural shift in population trends occurs).

Small differences between the three time periods to the year 2000 result in significant differences over the expected forty-

, year life span of the Seabrook Nuclear Power Plant. And, the significance of these differences is to be found in the forecasts of each of the communities in the EPZ since they vary widely in population size (from a low of 651 to a high of 29,000 in 1985).

j Marginal increments in average annual rates of growth can cause '

i large numerical increases in population in several of the communities. By fixing only on the 1980-1985 time span, as was done in Vol. 6, NHRERP, Rev. 2, average annual rates tend to i decrease. Since for the majority of these communities steady

, growth has occurred over the long term, more net additions of

! individuals to acheive a constant rate of growth is needed when I using a shorter time frame. Because of the larger initial

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O O population base, it is more difficult to achieve and/or maintain a high average annual rate of growth. ,

Ancilliary information exists to support the contention'that these seacoast ' area communities have enjoyed a relatively long term period of sustained demographic and economic growth.

Exhibit 2.3 presents land-use information for each of the seventeen towns in the EPZ. This information is drawn from New  :

Hampshire Agricultural Experiment Station Research Report #112 "Land Use Change: Rockingham County, New Hampshire, 1953-1982" authored by Befort, Luloff, and Morrone, published in January, 1987. In general, the experience of Rockingham County during the

  • period of study was one of rapid growth in developed land, largely as a result of residential and commercial expansion.

Developed land in the county nearly quadrupled between 1953 and 1982, going from slightly less than 10% of the total area i

inventoried to more than 35%. Development was largely at the expense of forested lands: slightly more than half of 1982 developed acres came from the 1953 forest class, while total forested lands dwindled by 25% over the three decades. Nearly twice as much forest land was developed in the eight years from L

l 1974 to 1982 as in the 21 year time period 1953 to 1974. The amount of land classified as developed experienced an average annual rate of increase of 6.88% between 1974 and 1982, with most j of this land coning from the land use cover categories idle (land '

recently cut from forest or land formerly in agriculture but left i

) fallow so that the natural process of reforestation occurs),

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O O forest, and agriculture.

The rates of change to developed land varied across the caunty as well as among communities in the EPZ. In 1974, allnost l

3 21% of Rockingham County was developed; by 1982 nearly 36% was developed. Among the seventeen EPZ communities the comparable figures were 29% developed in 1974 and 47% developed in 1982.

Thus, the seacoast region was slightly more developed in 1974 and significantly more developed by 1982 than the county as a whole..

Indeed, seven communities in the EPZ were more than 50% developed in 1982, with Rye at 59%, Hampton at 60% and Portsmouth at a 74%

developed rate (i.e., developed land as a percentage of total town land area).

As might be expected, given the aggregate land use changes  ;

and continued and increased popularity of many of these seventeen towns, the local housing stock has also grown prodigiously. In total, Rockingham County experienced an 86% increase in housing units between 1970 and 1985, with an 85% increase in single family housing, an 81% increase in multi-family housing, and a i 103% increase in mobile housing units. Between 1970 and 1985, the total number of housing units in the seventeen EPZ communities increased from 22.300 to 35,000, an increase in i

excess of 50%. This growth can be decomposed into increments in single family, multi-family, and mobile units. Single family units increased from 14,600 to 23,500; multi-family units from 6,600 to 8,800 units; and mobile homes from 1,000 to 2,700.

This increase was not limited to just the early part of the 9

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1970-1985 period. According to figures compiled by the State of  ;

i New Hampshire office of state Planning, over 19,000 building l I permits were issued in 1985 statewide, an increase of over 11',,000 i

)I permits from 19'83. Many of these permits were issued for construction in the seacoast area which has remained a popular  !

residential choice for inmigrants to !!ew Hampshire. Exhibit 2.4 l presents information on housing stock changes for the period f 1970-1985, annual building permits for the period 1980-1986, and

'l 1 registered condominiums for the period 1981-1986. Housing stock l j and building permit information was drawn from the Office of  ;

i 1 State Planning, while counts of condominiums was drawn from the o

j New Hampshire Attorney General's Office. With the notable }

exceptions of Hampton Falls, New Castle, Newfields, and South i i

r Hampton (each issuing less than 100 tutal building permits during l the 1980-1986 time period, and none of which had any condominiums i j- registered with the Attorney General's Office for 1981-1986), [

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each EPZ community experienced a relativcly rapid alteration to I

} and increase in its housing stock.

Examination of readily available information (Exhibit 2.5)  ;

i i i on rates of employmcnt and industrialization, particularly for  !

J manufacturing firms, among the seventeen EPZ communities also  !

4 indicates the rapidity of sustained growth in this area. Using l

'1 i data drawn from the New Hampshire Department of Employment  !

Security a portrait of a vibrant and healthy economy is obtained.  :

{ A comparison of numbers of units and employees in manufacturing

' and nonmanufacturing jobs, by town and area, for 1976 with both i

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O O the first and third quarters of 1986 (the third quarter generally I includes the large seasonal influence on employment in the area)  :

reveals substantial changes. More than 1,000 manufacturing units, a change' of over 60%, and more than 20,000 employees, a change of over 100%, was realized in the aggregates of the seventeen town area. Use of first quarter totals to estimate average annual rates of growth for manufacturing employment and industries results in aggregate rates of 6.53 percent and 4.54-percent respectively, while third quarter totals result in 7.33 i

percent and 5.66 percent rates respectively.

Using Department of Employment Security data for Labor Market Areas, and restricting our analysis to the first and third quarters of 1980 and 1984 for that portion of the Portsmouth labor market area with common boundaries (in 1985 this labor market area was redefined), insight into the nature of the employment structure of the region is generated. Employment in manufacturing declined, in both quarters (largely as a result of f the loss of jobs in non-durable goods) at more than a -4% rate, while employment in nonmanufacturing firms increased at an average annual rate of 6.72% for the first quarter comparison and I

4.42% for the third quarter comparison. For this set of comparisons, total industries, driven by the advancement of the nonmanufacturing sector, increased at a 4.71% rate (first quarter) and a 4.83% rate (second quarter) while total employment increased by 4% (first quarter) and 2.54% (seccnd quarter), such increases underscore the fact that this area of New Hampshire's f

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economy is, indeed, one of the most vigorous in the nation.

The report "Electric Load Forecast Through the Year 2005" by the Energy Management Department of the Public Service Company of New Hampshire (Aay, 1986) provides supportive information on the rapidity of growth in the area (See Exhibit 2.8). The report states that "Signs of weakening with regard to New Hampshire's above average performance are nowhere in sight" (page 2-1).

According to the report, this performance, which the Energy Management Department labels "nothing short of robust", points to several factors which have fueled New Hampshire's economy, and j the report begins this list of factors with population growth.

1 Also receiving attention is the state's low unemployment rate,  !

and high personal income growth rate, both of which are an to contribute substantially to the state's booming economy. ,

It is important to note that Rockingham County, which  !

contains all seventeen EPZ communities, has greatly profited from I

this robust economy. Numerous firms have expanded, relocated, or  !

I i developed in this region, and the area continues to enjoy extremely low rates of unemployment.

i PSNH itself suggests that the state will experience a population growth rate "twice the rate of the (New England) region and nation in the next twenty years" (page 2-2). Since the national average rate of growth is about 1%, then the state 1 i

should experience about a 2% average annual rate, according to l PSNH. The state rate represents an aggregate increase across all ten counties of New Hampshire. However, two counties (Rockingham 1

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rh b) U and Hillsborough) accounted for almost 60% of the state's total population growth between 1970 and 1980, and almost 79% of the state's total growth in manufacturing employment and almost 70'% of the state's tot'al growth in manufacturing firms for the period 1970-1978. Rockingham County alone accounted for 37% of the state's population growth from 1970-1980 and 21.5% of its 3 manufacturing firm growth and 71.5% of the state's growth in manufacturing employment (Exhibit 2.1).

Concomitant with population increases PSNH also forecasts significantly high rates of average annual growth for total 2

nonagricultural employment (2.2% per year for the period 1985-1995 and 1.8% per year for the period 1985-2005) which reflects a i

decline in the numbers employed in nondurable goods manufacture and relatively rapid increases in the manufacture of durable goods, and high rates of increase in the nonmanufacturing sector [

(2.4% per year for the period 1985-1995 and 1.9% per year for the period 1985-2005).

On the basis of these numbers it is clear that Rockingham County's growth rate, both in terms of population and employment, I

will far exceed New Hampshire's average annual rate of 2% and that the experience of the county is helping to fuel the statewide economy. Using data for the period 1970-1985, 8 of the 17 EPZ communities experienced a growth rate of greater than 2%

per year, while only 4 experienced rates less than 1% per year, i The longer time frame helps to document both the magnitude and I

types of changes in the employment sector (both manufacturing and 13

O O nonmanufacturing) characteristic of the seacoast communities in the EPZ.

Additional information relevant to the kind of growth i

experienced by the New Hampshire EPZ communities is available from the records of the New Hampshire Department of Safety wherc  !

vehicle registration lists are maintained. For the period shown in Exhibit 2.6 each of the seventeen communities has experienced relatively rapid increments in the numbers of registered' vehicles.

Similarly, traffic counts (Exhibit 2.7) at several sites in i the area (routes 1, 1A, 51, 101, 95 state border of Massachusetts ,

and New Hampshire, and 95 toll booth in Hampton) and recorded by the Transportation Planning and Systems Management Office of the New Hampshire Department of Transportation revealed sizeable increases for the period 1980-1986 (using average vehicle counts per day for the winter months) . For example, counts at the 95 toll booth reveal an increase of 65% in average daily traf fic ,

(from 26,200 in 1980 to 43,300 in 1986); an 18% increase on 1A in Seabrook (from 8,500 in 1980 to 10,000 in 1986) ; a 42% increase on Route 1 in North Hampton (from 11,400 in 1980 to 16,300 in 1986); and a 49% increase on 101 in Stratham (from 13,000 in 1980 l to 19,300 in 1986) . Traffic at the state line on 95 experienced about a 15% increase (from 51,600 in 1982 to 59,100 in 1986),

while traffic at Route 51 in Exeter experienced a 71% increase (from 8,600 in 1980 to 14,700 in 1986). Such data, in part, reflects the continued increases in population of the seacoast 14 J

. O O area communities.

Thus, on the basis of demographic data drawa from the ;U.S.

Census and the 9ew Hampshire Office of State Plannino, and from i

counts of housing, condominiums, manufacturing firms and employees, vehicle registrations in New Hampshire, traf fic counts on major arteries in the seacoast EPZ, an energy demand forecast model and publication of PSNH, and land use changes, it is clear that this area of the state has maintained a relatively high rate of sustained growth.

'T All of the above lead inescapably to the conclusion that the 4

EPZ is a rapidly growing area which will have a larger population than at present. o.egardless of which time frame is used for population forecasting purposes (1980-1995, as in Vol. 6, NHRERP; 1970-1980; 1970-1985) the uncontradicted fact is that the  :

seventeen town EPZ area within Rockingham County, New Hampshire i is experiencing profound and rampant growth. It is thus evident that any Emergency Response Plan should take into account the  ;

impact of such rapid population growth.

i Using our preferred time frame for developing the annualized ,

rate of growth for each of the New Hampshire EPZ ccmmunities  !

(i.e., 1970-1985), the population forecasts contained in Exhibit 2.2 suggest that dramatic population changes will be experienced in the EPZ well bef ore Seabroot: Station would be deconissioned.

1 Consider that in 1986, the seventeen town area encompassed a i

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population of 91,986 - in only 24 years, i.e., by 2010, this l

population could be as high as 144,427, an increase of more than [

f 64 percent. A recently released report by the Of fice of State Planning (Exhibit 2.8) confirms these estimates of growth. .

Therefore, todays prudent planners would bc well advised to take  !

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into account in their drawing of the Emergency Evacuation Plan .

for Seabrook Nuclear Power Station the sizable growth of this .

area.

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O LIST OF EXIIIBITS O  !

r 2.1 Population Change 3 i 2.2 Population Forecasts 1-l 2.3 Land Use  !

I 2, 4 Housing Stock, Building Permita and Condominiums 4 I

>l L l' 2.5 Employment and Manufacturing -

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2.6 Vohiale Registration 4

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] 2.7 Traffic Counts -

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f 2.8 PSNH Electric Load Forecast 4

2.9 OSP Population Projections  ;

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Number and Percent Change in Population of the New England Regfon, by State - 1910-1980 State 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980

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Ner Bern Hex Enclead Maine 742 768 797 847 914 969 994 1,125 New Hampshire 431 443 465 492 533 607 738 921 Vermont 356 352 360 359 378 390 445 511 Subtotal 1,529 1,563 1,622 1,698 1,825 1,966 2,177 2,557 Seuthern 311 Eactand Massachusetts 3,366 3,852 4,250 4,317 4,691 5,149 5,689 5,737 Rhode Island 543 604 687 713 792 859 950 947 Connecticut 1,115 1,381 1,607 1,709 2,007 2,535 3,032 3,108 Subtetal 5,024 5,837 6,544 6,739 7,490 8,543 9,671 9,792 E2x Eac!*ac 6,553 7,400 8,166 8,437 9,315 10,509 11,847 12,348 Cecade Changes 1910- 1920- 1930- 1940- 1950- 1960- 1970- 1910-1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1980 Ner*ser, i

Sex Emelaad Maine 3.5 3.8 6.2 7.9 6.1 2.6 13.2 51.1 New Hampshire 9.2 5.0 5.6 8.5 13.8 21.5 24.8 113.7 Vermont 2.0 -0.1

-1.0 5.2 14.1 14.1 14.8 43.5 Subtotal 2.2 3.8 4.7 7.5 7.7 10.7 17.5 67.2 Seu+*ern Egx Enctand Massachusetts 14.4 10.3 1.6 8.7 9.8 l Rhode Island 10.5 0.8 70.4 i 11.3 13.7 3.8 11.0 8.5 10.6 -0.3 74.4 Connecticut 23 .9 16.4 6.4 17.4 26.3 10.5 2.5 178.7 Subtotal 16.2 12.1 3.0 11.1 14.1 13.2 1.3 94.9 I E2X E9cland 12.9 10.4 3.3 10.4 12.8 12.7 4.2 88.4

Number and Perceitage Olstribution of Pcpulation in New Hampshire, .by County 1950,1960,1970, and 1980 1950 '1960 1970 1980 County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number. Percent Belknap 26,632 5.0 28,912 4.8 32,367 4.4 42,884 4.7 Carroll 15,868 3.0 15,829 2.6 18,548 2.5 27,931- 3.0 Cheshire 38,811 7.3 43,342 7.1 52,364 7.1 62,116 6.7 Ccos 35,932 6.7 37,140 61 34,291 4.6 35,147_ 3.8 Graften 47,923 9.0 48,857 8.0 54,914 7.4 65,806 7.1 Hillsborough 156,987 29.4 178,161 29.4 233,941 30.4 276,608 30.1 Merrimack 63,022 11.8 67,785 11.2 80,925 11.0 98,302 10.7 Rcckingham 70,059 13.1 99,029 16.3- 138,951 18.8 190,345 20.8 Strafford 51,567 9.7 59,799 9.9 70,431 9.6 85,408 9.3 Sullivan 26,441 5.0 28,067 4.6 30,949 4.2 36,063' 3.9

.i' Total 533,242 100.0 606,921 100.0 747,681 100.0 920,610 100.0 Number of Pecole and Percentage Change of New Fam;; shire Counties in Decades er -

Accumulative Tctal, 1950-1980 Number of People Accumulative (%) Change 1950- 1960- 1970- 1950- 1950 1960-i 1950 1960 1970 1980 1960 1970 1980 1970 1980 1980 Accumulative County Number Percent Percent Change 8elknap 26,632 28,912 32,367 42,884 8.6 12.0 32.5 21.5 61.0 48 Carroli 15,868 15,829 18,548 27,931 -0.1 17.2 50.6 16.9 76.0 76:

Cheshire 38,811 43,342 82,364 62,116 11.7 20.8 18.6 34.9 60.0 43 Coos 35,932 37,140 34,291 35,147 3.4 -7.7 2.5 -4.6 -2.2 -0 Grafton 47,923 48,857 54,914 65,8C6 1.9 12.4 19.8 14.6 37.3 34 HllIsbcrcugh 156,987 178,161 223,941 276,608 13.5 25.7 23.5 42.6 76.2 58 Merrimack 63,022 67,785 80,925 98,302 7.6 19.4 21.5 28.4 56.0 4*

Reckingham 70,059 99,029 138,951 190,345 41.4 40.3 37.0 98.3 171.7 9:

Strafford 51,567 59,799 70,431 85,408 16.0 17.8 21.3 36.6 65.6 4:

SuliIvan 26,441 28,067 30,949 36,063 6.1 10.3 16.5 17.0 36.4 2!

Total 533,242 606,921 737,681 920,610 20.6 21.5 51.7 3a.3 72.6 5

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s Percent of Total Manufacturing Firms.

Employment, and Change in New Hampshire l by County,1970 to 1978 Mrms F!rms Firm Emp. Emp. Emp.

County 1978 Change 1978 Change 1970 1970 Belknap 59 78 +19 4,778 4,435 -343 5.6% 5.6% 5.9% 4.7% 3.8% -2.6%

Carroll 30 46 +16 931 1,725 +794 2.8% 3.3% 5.0% .9% 1.5% 6.0%

Cheshire 115 135 +20 8,662 8,141 -521 10.8 % 9.8% 6.2% 8.5% 7.0% -4.0%

Coos 32 44 +12 4,043 5,699 +1,656 3.0% 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 4.9% .

12.6%

Grafton 74 75 +1 5,656 6,009 +353 7.0% 5.4% .3% 5.5% 5.2% 2.7%

Hillsborough 342 491 +149 43,718 46,582 +2,364 32.2% 35.5 % 46.4 % 42.7% 40.3 % 21.7%

Merrimack 121 144 +23 9,386 9,783 +397 11.4% 10.4 % 7.2% 9.2% 8.5% 10% l Rockingham 145 21'4 +69 7,349 16,791 +9,442 l

13.7 % 15.5 % 21.5 % 7.2% 14.5% 71.5 % l Strafford 86- 93 +7 13,913 11340 -1,573 i 8.1% 6.7% 2.2% 13.6% 10.7% -11.9%  !

Sullivan 57 62 +5 3.095 4,124 +129-5.4% 4.3% 1.6% 3.9% 3.8% 1.0%

Total 1,061 1,382 321 102,431 115,629 13,198 l - .. _ __ .. _ _ _ . __ _ _ - . . - - - . . - - -

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O O New Hampshire Absolute Manufacturing Firm and Employment Change, by County,1970 and 19788 Firm Firm Firm Emp. Emp. Emp,

% *7 1MO 1978 Change 1970 1978 Change Ballmmp 59 78 +19 4,778 4,435 -343 >

+32.2% -7.2%

CarroII 30 46 +16 931 1,725 +794 53.3% +85.3%

Cheshire 115 135 +20 8,662 8,141 -521

+17.4% -6.0%

Coos 32 44 +12 4,043 5,899 +1,856

+37.5% +4LO%

Grafton 74 75 +1 5,856 6,C09 +353

+1.4% +6.2% 1 Hillsborough 342 491 +149 43.718 4582 +2,364

+43.6% +4.6% i Merrimack 121 144 +23 9,386 9,783 +397

+19.0% +4.2%  !

Rockingham 145 214 +69 7,349 16,791 +9,442 l

+47.0% +128.5%

Strafford 86 93 +7 13,913 12,340 -1,573

+8.1% -13.0%

Sullivan 57 62 +5 3,995 4,124 +129%

+8.8% +3.2%

State 1,061 1,382 321 102,431 115,629 13,198

+30.3% +12.9%

' Data obtained from New Ham pshire Office ofIndustrial Develop-ment toport, Made in New Hampshire: A Directory of Manufac-turers and Manufactured Products, 1970 71 and 1978 79.

I l

O O Rockingham County Manufacturing Firm and Employment Change by Industry Type,19'70 and 1978 Firma Ftras h Emp. Emp. ** '

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  • D tsto '2r7s 1e70 wts N .% N  %

Mining, 2 0 -2 100.0 2'75 0 -276 -100.0 Quarrying, Construction Food and 5 9 4 80.0 413 759 348 83.8 Kindred Textile, 8 8 0 0.0 583 642 59 10.1

, Clothing Lumber, Wood, 28 21 25.0 582 565 -17 -2.9 Incl. Furniture Paper and 4 3 25.0 102 125 23 *5 Allied Products Printing, 14 22 8 57.1 148 297 149 100.0 Publishing and Allied Products Chemical. 13 23 10 78.9 249 1.658 1.409 565.8 Plastics.

Petroleum Relat.ed Leather and 17 17 0 0.0 2.712 2.366 -346 -12.8 Rubixrr Meta 1, Clay, 25 42 17 68.0 1,172 3.508 2.336 199.3 Stone, Glass, Concrete Machinery (non- 12 33 21 175.0 340 4,779 4,439 1,305.5 electrical)

Elect 2ical, 14 26 12 85.7 732 1,963 1,231 168.1 Electronic & i Instruments ]

Miscellaneous 3 10 l 233.3 40 129 89 722.5 Total 145 214 69 47.6 7,34 9 16.791 9,442 123.5 l

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List of Exhibits 2.2.1 Table of Real Population Data 1970 .1985 '

2.2.2 Table of Growth Rates 2.2.3 Table of Population Forecasts 1986 - 1990 2.2.4 Table of Population Forecasts 1990 - 2010 2.2.5 Plot of Actual Population for Total Area 1970 - 1985 2.2.6 Plot of Population Forecasts for Total Area 1985 - 2010 2.2.7 Plot of Population Forecasts for Total Area 1985 - 2030 2.2.8 Plot of Actual Population for Brentwood 1970 - 1985 2.2.9 Plot of Population Forecasts for Brentwood 1985 - 2010 2.2.10 Plot of Population Forecasts for Brentwood 1985 - 2030 2.2.11 Plot of Actual Population for East Kingston 1970 - 1985 2.2.12 Plot of Population Forecasts for East Kingston 1985 - 2010 2.2.13 Plot of Population Forecasts for East Kingston 1985 -2030 2.2.14 Plot of Actual Population for Exeter 1970 - 1985 2.2.15 Plot of Population Forecasts for Exeter 1985 - 2010 2.2.16 Plot of Population Forecasts for Exeter 1985 - 2030 2.2.17 Plot of Actual Population for Greenland 1970 - 1985 2.2.18 Plot of Population Forecasts for Greenland 1985 - 2010 2.2.19 Plot of Population Forecasts for Greenland 1985 - 2030 2.2.20 Plot of Actual Population for Hampton 1970 - 1985 2.2.21 Plet of Population Forecasts for Hampton 1985 - 2010 2.2.22 Plot of Population Forecasts for Hampton 1985 - 2030 2.2.23 Plot of Actual Population for Hampton Falls 1970 - 1985 2.2.24 Plot of Population Forecasts for Hampton Falls 1985 - 2010 2.2.25 Flot of Population Forecasts for Hampton Falls 1985 - 2030 2.2.26 Plot of Actual Population for Kensington 1970 - 1985 2.2.27 Plot of Population Forecasts for Kensington 1985 - 2010 2.2.28 Plot of Population Forecasts for Kensington 1985 - 2030 2.2.29 Plot of Actual Population for Kingston 1970 - 1985 1 2.2.30 Plot of Population Forecasts for Kingston 1985 - 2010 2.2.31 Plot of Population Forecasts for Kingston 1985 - 2030 2.2.32 Plot of Actual Population for New Castle 1970 - 1985 2.2.33 Plot of Population Forecasts for New Castle 1985 - 2010 2.2.34 Plot of Population Forecasts for New Castle 1985 - 2030 2.2.35 Plot of Actual Population for Newfields 1970 - 1r35 2.2.36 Plot of Population Forecasts for Newfields 1985 - 2010 2.2.37 Plot of Population Forecasts for Newfields 1985 - 2030 2.2.38 Plot of Actual Population for Newton 1970 - 1985 1 2.2.39 Plot of Population Forecasts for Newton 1985 - 2010 2.2.40 Plot of Population Forecasts for Newton 1985 - 2030 2.2.41 lot of Actual Population for North Hampton 1970 - 1985 2.2.42 Plot of Population Forecasts for North Hampton 1985 - 2010 2.2.43 Plot of Population Forecasts for North Hampton 1985 - 2030 2.2.44 Plot of Actual Population for Portsmouth 1970 - 1985 2.2.46 Plot of Population Forecasts for Portsmouth 1985 - 2010 2.2.47 Plot of Population Forecasts for Portsmouth 1985 - 2030 2.2.48 Plot of Actual Population for Rye 1970 - 1985 2.2.49 Plot of Population Forecasts for Rye 1985 - 2010 2.2.50 Plot of Population Forecasts for Rye 1985 - 2030 2.2.51 Plot of Actual Population ,for Seabrook 1970 - 1985

O O 2.2.52 Plot of Population Forecasts for Seabrook 1985 - 2010 2.2.53 Plot of Population Forecasts for Seabrook 1985 - 2030 2.2.54 Plot of Actual Population for South Hampton 1970 - 1985 2.2.55 Plot of Population Forecasts for South Hampton 1985 - 2010 2.2.56 Plot of Population Forecasts for South Hampton 1985 - 2030 2.2.57 Plot of Actual Population for Stratham 1970 - 1985 2.2.58 Plot of Population Forecasts for Stratham 1985 - 2010 2.2.59 Plot of Population Forecasts for Stratham 1985 - 2030 l

i

kwal Data Towns 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Crentwood 1468 1494 1538 1595 1630 1610 1610 1822 1778 2023 2004 2014 2093 2115 2164 2183 East,Kangston 838 870 917 954 976 9 58 965 1046 1140 1164 1135  !!45 1257  !!74 1179 1269 Cacter 8892 9357 9726 9959 9900 10173 10485 10429 10751 10674 11024 11159 11260 11545 11699 12040 Creen14nd 1784 1850 1925 2066 1980 2025 2055 2000 2059 2102 2129 2178 2235 2225 2229 2232 Corpton 8014 8411 8727 9272 9264 9256 9580 9717 10158 10263 10493 10759 10875 11032 11271 1150h Herpton_ Falls 1154 1339 1574 1410 1452 1389 1400 141 'a 1395 1365 1372 1554 1330 1412 1465 1485 Kensan9 ton 1044 108h 1156 1200 1200 1165 1155 1251 1291 1331 1322 1355 1401 1216 14n) 1376 Kangston 1882 3108 3357 3602 3818 3794 1790 3801 3939 3978 4111 4284 4451 4601 4797 4890 Now, Castle 475 929 901 885 907 881 870 954 957 961 936 990 870 920 913 479 Nawfaelds $41 849 854 860 811 802 845 813 807 803 817 817 846 827 888 848 towton 1920 2106 2269 2325 2500 2652 2765 2895 2965 3057 3068 3096 3221 3405 3490 3600 Corth_Hampton 3259 3314 3405 5500 3500 3502 3420 3504 1478 3592 3425 3468 3490 3466 3571 3670 Portsmouth 25717 24013 2333c 22965 22651 22742 22115 28517 29230 28849 26254 26565 27099 28578 28651 29u00 tye 405) 4127 4219 4122 4355 4301 4205 4460 4460 4593 4508 4472 4764 5036 4876 4859 Seabrook 3051 3188 3322 3436 3690 5128 5350 5479 6468 5858 5917 5945 6217 6300 6398 6672 South ,Hamptos. 553 h04 622 648 611 652 660 694 608 696 660 673 679 639 655 651 e

strathan 1512 1605 1725 1796 1850 1898 1950 2022 2221 2193 2507 2639 2721 2846 2977 3113 Area , Total 680a; 6s330 69147 70795 71115 72908 73220 80821 81707 83702 81682 82913 64809 87417 88686 90273 O

1 N

O Compounded Interest Rates O

Town 70-80 70-85 80-85 Brentvood 0.03161 0.02681 0.01726 East Kingston 0.03080 0.02805 0.02257 Exeter 0.02172 0.02041 0.01779.

Greenland 0.01784 0.01505 0.00949 * '

Hampton 0.02736 0.02443 0.01860 .

-Hampton Falls- 0.00903 0.01134 0.01595 KensingIon 0.02389 0.01858 0.00804-Kingston 0.03616 0.03588 0.03531 New Castle -0.00407 -0.00689 -0.01249

, Nevlields -0.00313 0.00039 0.00748 Newton 0.04799 0.04280 0.03250 North Hampton -0.00498 0.00795 0.01391 Portsmouth 0.00207 0.00804- 0.02009 Rye 0.00995 0.01167 0.01511 Seabrook 0.06841 0.05350 0.02431 South Hampton 0.01693 0.01033 -0.00274 StratRam 0.05187 0.04932 0.04425 l Area _ Total 0.01836 0.01898 0.02020 .

1

Projected Data 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 Crentwood 2252. 2242. 2221. 2323. 2302. 2259. 2397. 2363. 2298. 2472. 2427. 2338. 2551. 2492. 2378.

East _Kingston 1308. 1305. 1298. 1348. 1341. 1327. 1390. 1379. 1357. 1433. 1417. 1388. 1477. 1457. 1419.

Exeter 12302. 12286. 12254. 12569 12537. 12472. 12842. 12792. 12694. 13121. 13054. 12920. 13406. 13320. 13150 Greenland 2272. 2266. 2253, 2312. 2300. 2275. 2354, 2334. 2296. 2396. 2369 2318. 2438. 2405, 2340.

Campton 11821. 11787. 11720. 12144. 12075. 11938. 12476. 12370. 12160. 12818. 12672. 12386. 13168. 12982. 12617.

Campton_ralls 1498. 1502. 1509. 1512. 1519. 1533. 1526. 1536. 1557. 1539. 1553. 1582. 1553. 1571. 1601.

Kensangton 1409. 1402. 1387. 1443. 1428. 1398. 1477. 1454. 1409. 1512. 1481, 1421. 1548. 1509. 1412.

sangston 5067. 5065. 5063. 5250. 5247. 5241. 5440. 5435. 5427. 5637. 5630. 5618. 5840 5832. 5817.

New_ Castle 875. 873. 8b8. 8 72. 867 857. 868. 861. 84b. 465. 855. 336. 861. 849. 825.

Newfteld 845. 848. 854. 843. 849. 801. 840. 849 867. 837. 849. 874. 835. 850. 880.

Newton 3773. 3754. 3717. 3954. 1915. 3838. 4144. 4082. 3963. 4342. 4257. 4091. 4551. 4439. 4224.

No s t :n_Ha mp t on 3688. 3699. 3721. 3707. 3729. 3773. 3725. 3758. 3825. 3744. 3788. 3879. 3762. 3818. 3933.

Fortsmouth 29060. 29233. 29583. 29120. 29468. 30177. 29180. 29705. 30784. 29241. 29944. 31402. 29301. 30185. 32033.

Rye 4907. 4916. 4932. 4956. 4973. 5007. 5006. 5031. 5083. 5055. 5090. 5159. 5106. 5149. 5237.

Seabrook 7128. 7029. 6834. 7616. 7405. 7000. 8137. 7801. 7170. 8694. 8219 7345. 9288. 8658. 7523.

South Hampt.sn 662. h58. 649. 673. 665. 647. 685, h71. 646. 696. 678. 644. 708. 685. 642.

Strathan 3274. 3267. 3251. 3444. 3428. 3395. 3623. 3591 3545. 3811. 3)J4. 3702. 4008. 3900. 3865.

Area, Total 91931. 91986 92097. 93619. 93731. 93957. 95338. 95510. 95855. 97088. 9 "J 3 2 2 . 97792. 98871. 99169. 99768.

Pao 3ected Data 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 10-85 80-85 70-40 70-85 50-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 70-80 70-85 80-85 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 ccentwood 2551 2492. 2378. 2980. 2844. 2590. 3482. 3246. 2822. 4068. 3705. 3074. 4753. 4229. 3348.

East ,Kangston 1477. 1457. 1419 1719. 1673. 1586. 2000. 1922. 1774. 2328. 2207. 1983. 2709. 2534. 2217.

Exeter 13406. 13320. 13150. 14927. 14736. 14362. 16620. 16302. 15685. 18506. 18036. 17131. 20605. 19953. 18710.

Greenland 2438. 2405. 2340. 26n4. 2592. 2453. 2910. 2793. 2572. 3179 3009. 2696. 3473. 3242. 2827.

Hampton 13168. 12982. 12617. 15071. 14647. 13835. 17248. 16526. 15170. 19740. 18646. 16635. 22592. 21037. 18241.

Hampton_ Falls 1553. 1571. 1607. 1625. 1662. 1740. 1699 1759. 1883. 177S. 1861. 2038. 1859. 1968. 2206 Ke..sangton 1548. 1509. 1432. 1742. 1654. 1491. 1961. 1814. 1552. 2206. 1988. 1615. 2483. 2180. 1681.

kangston $840. 5832. 5817. 6975. 6956. 6919. 8'31. 8297. 8230. 9950. 9896. 9789. 11883. 18ul. 11644.

Now, Cast!= 861. 849. 825. 844. 820. 775. 827. 792. 728. 810 766. 684. 794. 740. 642.

Newfaelds 815. 850. 880. 822. 851. 914, 809. 853. 948. 796. 855. 984. 784. 856. 1022.

Newton 4551. 4439. 4224. 5752. 5474. 4957. 7272. 6750. 5816. 9192. 8323. 6825. 11620. 10264. 8008.

North _Hamptun 3762. 3818. 3931 3157. 1972. 4214. 3954. 4133. 4515. 4053. 4300, 4838. 4155, 4473. 5184.

Portsmouth 29301. 30185. 32033. 29606. 11418. 35384. 29913. 32702. 39085. 30224. 34038. 43173. 30538. 35429. 47688.

cy. 5106. 5149. 5237 5365. 5457. 5645. 5637. 5782. 6085. 5923. 6128. 6558. 6224. 6494. 7069.

Seabrook 9288. 8658. 7523. 12931. 11236. 8483. 18002. 14581. 9566. 25061. 18922. 10786. 34889. 24555. 12163.

S ou t h,H a mp t .> n 708. n85. 642. 770. 721. 633. 837. 760. 625. 911. 800. 616. 991. 842. 608.

Strathan 4008. 3960. 3865. 5162. 5038. 4800. h646. 6409. 5960. 8558. 8154. 7401. 11020. 10373. 9190.

Atem Tota! '88371. '8 91 b 9 . 99768. 108288.108942.110261. 118603.119678.121858. 129899.131471.134674. 142272.144427.148839.

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Source: Census /OSP

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  • Actual Data NHRERP 080387

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EXHIBIT 2.3 4

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tand Use 1953 1974 1982 Total Ag Dev for Ag Dev For Ag Dev For Brentwood 11240 2035 9 75 7760 1510 1510 7750 1070 4955 5065 East Kingston 6515 1020 550 4425 1060 780 4360 1195 1575 3590 Es:;ter 12345 1380 1970 8525 470 3690 7805 195 5965 5885 Greenland 8560 2540 670 3065 1245 2465 2720 1040 3370 2150 Hampton 8905 620 2445 3350 135 3680 2705 75 5350 1580 Hanpton Falls 8190 1975 615 3975 1385 1315 3855 1125 2705 2825 K ton 7940 2115 570 4315 1640 1350 4690 1140 2710 3825 Ki on 13065 765 1630 9375 310 3285 8070 85 6475 5175 New Castle 1325 0 255 275 0 435 95 0 445 85 Newfistds 5155 570 415 3745 380 700 3685 125 1670 3115 Newton 6825 490 1135 4910 330 1775 4485 285 3475 2875 North Hampton 8795 2005 1505 4940 685 3275 4420 355 4945 3315 Portsmouth 10920 1545 3580 4290 110 7190 2535 0 8080 1945 Rye 8685 650 2455 4225 45 4390 3155 65 5145 2480 seabrook 6155 460 1280 2580 115 2270 1870 30 3470 905 south nanpton 9955 349J 415 3455 2650 1575 3380 1670 3925 2955 strctham 5140 920 405 5025 625 9 70 5085 5 75 1420 3750 T1.ttts 139715 22580 20870 78735 12695 40655 70665 9030 65660 51520

  • )

as .

- _ _ _ - _ _-m_-

Land Use Change 1953-82 Change 1953-74 Change 1974-82 Change Town Ag Dev For Ag Dev For Ag Dev for Brentwood 47 -408 35 26 -55 0 29 -228 35 East Kingston -17 -186 19 -4 -42 1 -13 -102 18 Em;ter 86 -203 66 -87 31 8 59 -62 25 Creenland 59 -403 30 51 -268 11 16 -37 21 Hampton 88 -118 53 78 -51 19 44 -45 42 Hanpton Falls 43 -340 29 30 -114 3 19 -106 27 Kensington 46 -3 75 21 22 -137 3 30 -101 18 Ki on 89 -297 45 59 -102 14 73 -97 36 N stle 0 - 75 69 0 -71 65 0 -2 11 Newfistds 78 -302 17 35 -69 2 67 -139 15 Newton 42 -206 41 33 -56 9 14 -96 36 North Hanpton 82 -229 33 66 -118 11 48 -51 25 Portsmouth 100 -126 55 93 -101 41 100 -12 23 Rye 90 -110 41 93 -79 25 -44 -17 21 seabrook 93 -171 65 75 -77 28 74 -53 52 south Manpton 52 -846 14 24 -280 2 37 -149 13 strctham 38 -251 25 32 -140 -1 8 -46 26 Totcts 60 -215 35 44 -95 to 29 -62 27

(-

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~

O 'E TOWN FIPS CODE : 15015 BRENTWOOD 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE OTHR 'WATR *TOTL 1974 AGRI 1,380 15 110 5 0 0 1.510 DEVL 280 935 480 35 10 0 1,740 FORE 275 25 7,145 290 15 0 7.750 IDLE 95 0 10 60 0 0 165 OTHR 5 0 15 15 40 0 75 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 2,035 975 7,760 405 65 0 11,240 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15015 BRENTWOOD 1974 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE 0?HR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 825 20 215 10 0 0 1.070 DEVL Sao 1,635 2,610 130 ko 0 4,955 FORE 140 50 4,830 20 25 0 5,065 IDLE o 15 85 0 0 0 100 OTHR 3 20 10 1) 0 5 50 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 1,310 1,740 7,750 165 73 0 11.240 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15015 SRENTWOOO 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 775 10 260 0 25 0 1.070 DEVL 965 4,955 935 2.850 175 30 0 FORE 265 30 4,5L0 205 25 0 5,065 IDLE O O 100 0 0 0 100 OTHR 30 0 10 0 10 0 50 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 2,033 975 7,760 405 65 0 11.240

-. 1 C o _

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15045 EAST KINGSTON 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR .TOTL 1974 AGRI 780 10 0 175 95 0 1.060 DEVL 60 L90 135 95 0 0 780 FORE 95 40 L.060- 165 0 0 4.360 10LE 85 0 40 30 0 0 155 OTHR 0 10 15 0 0 115 140 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 TOTL 1.020 550 4.625 20 385 115 6.515 TOWN FIPS CODE : 150'5 EAST KINGSTON 197L AGRI O!VL FORE 13LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGal 835 45 220 90 5 0 1.195 DEVL 170 695 650 50 10 0 1.575 FORE 55 40 3.470 15 10 0 3 590 10LE O o 0 0 15 0 15 OTHR 0 0 0 5 115 0 120 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 TOTL 1.060 750 k.3eo 155 140 20 6.515 l

l TOWN FIPS CODE : 15065 EAST KINGSTON 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL AGRI 670 15 385 125 0 0 1.195 DEvt 220 490 715 0 150 0 1.575 FORE 130 40 3.310 110 0 0 3 590 i IDLE o 0 15 0 0 0 15 OTHR 0 5 0 0 115 0 120 WATR 0 0 0 0 i

0 20 20 1 l

TOTL 1.020 550 k.425 385 115 20 6.515

. , . ~ . . , - - - --

TOWN FIPS Co0E : 15055 ExETER 1953 AGRI oEVL FORE. IDLE OTHR WATR ToTL 1974

  • AGRI . 395 5 65 o 5 -o 470 DEVL 755 1,915 885 115 20 o 3.690 FORE 185 ko 7,500 65 15 o 7.805 loLE 45 to o o o o 55 oTHR o o 75 0 100 o 175 WATR o o o o o 150 150 ToTL 1.38o 1.970 8.525 185 135 ,150 12.345 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15o55 ExETER 197L AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE oTHR WATR ToTL 1982 ACR' 170 5 20 o o c 195 DEVL 295 3.660 1.885 L3 80 0 5.965 FORE to 3 25 5.8L5 o o 5.885 10LE o o 55 o o o 55 oTHR o o o o 95 o 95 WATR o o o o o 150 150 ToTL 470 3.690 7.305 55 175 150 t 12.345 TOWN FIPS C0o! : 15055 EXETER 1953 AGRI oEVL FORE loLE OTHR WATR ToTL 1982 AGR! lho 5 40 lo o o DEVL 195 1.155 1.915 2.6Lo 160 95 o FORE 5.965 85 So 5.735 15 o o (OLE o o 5.885 55 o o o 55 oTHR o o 55 o 40 o 95 VATR o o o o o 150 150 ToTL 1.380 1.970 8.525 185 135 150 12 345

- - -~

-.. ,w .- , - y

f* O p' C)# C TOWN FIPS CODE : 15065 GREENLANO 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE OTHR WATR , TOTL 1974 AGRI I,060 0 150 10 5 20 1.245 DEVL 1;095 655 545 70 50 50- 2.465 FORE 255 15 2.330 45 70 5 2.720 ICLE 115 0 30 0 0 0 OTHR ILS 15 0 10 5 65 5 100 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 1.885 1.885 TOTL 2.5LO 670 3.065 130 190 1.965 8,560 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15065 GREENLAND 1974 ACRI O!VL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 910 45 75 10 0 0 1.040 DEVL 325 2.385 525 75 60 0 3.370 FORE 10 15 2.085 30 10 0 2.150 10LE O 15 30 30 0 0 75 OTHR 0 5 0 5 30 0 40 VATR 0 0 0 0 0 1.885 1.885 TOTL 1.245 2.465 2.720 145 100 1.385 8,560 l

l TOWN FIPS C00E : 15065 GREENLAND

'1953 AGRI DEVL FORE ICLE OTHR WATR TOTL i 1982 '

AGRI 855 5 130 25 5 20 1.040 DEVL 1.425 655 1.065 70 105 50 3.370 FORE 190 10  !

1.845 35 60 10 2.150 10LE 65 0 10 0 0 0 75 OTHR 5 0 0 15 20 0 40 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 1.885 1.885 TOTL 2 540 670 3.065 130 190 1 965 8.560 1

. i

.I

C i U

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15073 HAMPTON 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1974 AGRI 110 o 5 20 o o DEVL 330 135 2.430 665 150 105 o 3.68o FORE 80 0 2.470 130 25 o 2.705 "

IDLE 85 0 15 70 0 0 170 OTHR 15 15 0 195 1.625 o 1.850 WATR 0 o o o o 365 365 TOTL 62o 2.445 3.350 370 1.755 365 8.905 TOWN FIPS C00! : 15073 HAMPTON 1974 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 53 10 0 10 0 0 DEVL 75 70 3.660 1.135 100 365 0 FORE 10 0 5.330 1 540 20 lo 0 1 580 IDLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 o OTHR 0 10 30 40 1.L75 0 1.555 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 365 365 TOTL 135 3.680 2.705 170 1.850 365 8.905 TOWN FIPS C00! : 15073 HAMPTON 1953 AGRI O!VL FORE 10LE OTHR 1982 WATR TOTL AGRI is 0 10 5 5 0 DEVL k70 75 2.435 1.850 285 290 0 1

FORE 35 0 5 330 1.460 60 25 0 IDLE O O O 1.580 O O 0 o OTHR 60 10 1

30 20 1.135 0 WATR 0 0 0 1 555 0 0 365 365 TOTL 620 2.445 3.350 370 1 755 365 8.905 l

O O TOWN FIPS' CODE : 15075 HAMPTON FALLS 1953 AGRI OEVL FORE IDLE OTHR WATR TOTL 1974

  • AGRI 1.165 20 125 80 0 15 1 385 OEVL 365 555 365 30 0 0 1.315 FORE 360 30 3.210 225: 0 30 3.855 IOLE 80 5 25 0 0 0 110 OTHR 25 5 250 25 990 0 1.295 WATR 0 0 0 0 4

15 215 230 TOTL 1.975 615 3.975 360 1.050 - 215 8.130 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15073 HAMPTON. FALLS 197L ACRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL i

1982 AGR1 985 k5 80 10 5 0 1.125 O!VL 350 1.235 935 60 125 0 2.705 FORE 50 20 2.720 20 0 10LE 15 2.825 O O 30 10 0 0 40 OTHR 0 15 .90 20 1.Iko 0 WATR 1.265 0 0 0 0 0 230 230 TOTL 1.385 1 315 3.855 110 1.295 230 8.190 i

TOWN F1PS CODE i 15073 HAMPTON ~ FALLS i 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 4

1982 _

AGRI 845 60 160 60 0 0 1.125 DEVL 805 525 1.205 125 L5 0 2.705 FORE 215 25 2.405 145 0 35 2.825 4 ICLE 15 0 25 0 0 0

' 40 OTHR 95 180 5 30 955 0 1,265

, WATR 0 0 0 0 15 215 230 i

TOTL 1.975 615 3 975 360

1.050 215 8.190 i

1

  • l

O O 15 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15085 KENSINGTON 1953 AGRI DEvL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR 'TOTL 1974 -

AGRI 1,310 85 200 45 0 0 1,640 DEVL 425 405 455 60 5 0 1,350 FORE 295 80 4,113 190 10 0 4,690 IDLE 80 0 15 0 0 0 95 OTHR S 0 30 100 30 0 165 VATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 2,115 570 4,315 395 45 0 7,940 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15035 KENSINGTON 197L AORI O!VL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 943 50 135 10 0 0 1,140 OEyt 655 1,190 780 10 0 2,7to 75 FORE 40 30 3,735 to 10 0 3,825 10LE o 80 15 0 0 0 95 OTHR 0 0 23 0 ]L3 0 370, WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 1,6*O 1.350 4,690 95 165 0 7,940 TO'aN F I P S C OD E : 15085 KENSINGTON i

1953 AGRI DEvt FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 __

AGRI 725 95 265 0 0 55 i, iso DEVL 1,110 420 1,060 115 5 0 2,710 FORE 230 55 3,420 100 20 0 3,825 l IDLE 50 0 40 5 0 0 95 OTHR 0 0 30 120 20 0 170 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 2,115 570 6,815 395 45 0 7,940 l

i e

i

O O "

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15090 KINGSTON-1953 AORI DEVL FORE 10 '. E OTHR WATR- TOTL 1974

, AGRI 175 o 120 15 0 0 310 DEvt 275 1 545 1,380 80 5 0 3.285 FORE 295 85 7 560 90 40 0 8.070 10LE 20 0 55 0 0 0 75 OTHR ~0 0 260 0 295 0 555 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 770 770 TOTL 765 1.630 9.375 185 3ko 770 13.065 i

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15090 KIN 0570N 197k AGRI DEVL FORE lOL! CTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AORf 70 10 5 0 0 0 85 DEVL 240 3.220 2.870 75 70 0 6.475 FORE O 15 5 145 0 15 0 5.175 IDLE o 5 50 0 0 0 55  ;

OTHR 0 35 0 0 L70 0 505 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 770 770

' ~

TOTL 310 3,235 8,070 75 555 13.065 TOWN FIPS 000E : 15090 KINOSTON 1953 AORI CEVL FOR! IDLE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982  ;

AORI 45 0 40 0 0 0 85 OEVL 635 1 363 k.120 Iko 35 0 6.475 FORE 85 80 k.925 45 40 0 5 175 3

10LE o 5 50 0 0 0 55 QTHA 0 0 240 0 265 0 505 I

WATA 0 0 0 0 0 770 770 i

3 70TL 765 1.630 9 375 185 340 770 .13 065

.)

i l

P

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TOWN FIPS CODE : 15100 NEW CASTLE-1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE OTHR WATR ,TOTL 1974 AGRI O O O O O O O DEVL 0 255 180 0 0 0 435 FORE O O 95 0 0 0 95 IDLE 0 0 0- 0 0 0 0 OTHR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 795 795 TO'l 0 255 275 0 0 795 1.325 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15100 NEW CASTLE 1974 AORI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR VATR TOTL 1982 AGRI o 0 0 0 0 0 0 DEVL 0 k35 10 0 'O C LLS FORE o 0 85 0 0 0 85 IDLE O O O O O 0 0 OTHR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 795 795 TOTL 0 435 95 0 0 795 1.325 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15100 NEW CASTLE 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 l '

AGRI O O O O O O O DEVL 0 255 190 0 0 0 hk5 FORE O 0 85 0 0 0 85 IDLE 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 OTHR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 795 795 TOTL 0 255 275 0 0 795 1.325 t

4

O O e TOWN FIPS. CODE : 15105 NEWFIELOS 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE OTHR .WATR '. TOTL 1974 AGRI 365_ 0 25 to 0 0 380 DEVL 105 600 115 65 15 0 700 FORE 35 10 3.485 130 25 0 3.685

' ICLE 85 5 10 ~30_ 0 0 130 OTHR 0- 0 'llo 5 45 0 160 ,

WATR 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 TOTL 370 415 3.745- 260 85 100 5.155 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15105 NEWFIELOS 1974 Acal DEVL FORE IDLE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 110 0 15 0 0 0 125 CEVL 255 695 610 90 20 0 1.670 FORE 15 0 3.060 40 0 0 3.115 ICLE O O O 0 0 0 0 '

OTHR 0 5 0 0 140 0 WATR 0 0 145 '

0 0 0 100 100 1 TOTL 360 706 3 685 160 130 100 5.155 l l

i TOWN FIPE C00E : 15105 NEWFiELOS 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 100 0 20 0 0 5 125 DEVL 410 koo 625 185 50 0 1.670 j FORE 60 15 2.990 45 0 5 3.115 10LE O 0 0 0 0 0 l 0

OTHR 0 )

0 110 5 30 0 145 i WATR 0 0 0 0 0 100 100 1 TOTL 570 415 3 745 240 100 85 5 155 1

b ')

TOWN FIPS 000E : 15120 NEWTON 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE oTHR WATR .ToTL 1974 _

AGRt 245 o 6o 25 o o 330 DEvt 130 1.090 485 70 o o 1.775

, FORE 90 45 4.250 100 o o 4.485 10LE 20 0 10 o o o 30 oTHR 5 0 90 o o o 95 WATR o o 15 o o 95 llo TOTL 490 1.135 4.910 195 o 95 6.825 TOWN FIPS C00E : 15120 NEVToN 1974 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE oTHR WATR ToTL ,

1982 AcRI 235 o so o o o 28c DEVL so 1.765 1.575 30 o 15 3.47.

FORE 5 10 2.855 o 5 o 2.877 IDLE o o 5 o o o 5 0 .'H R o o o o 90 0 90 WJTR o o o o o 95 95 TOTL 330 1.775 4.485 30 95 110 6.825 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15120 NEWTON

]

1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE oTHR WATR ToTL 1982 AGRI 200 o 6o 25 o o 285 DEVL 260 1.090 1.985 140 o o 3 475 F OP.E 30 45 2 770 30 o o 2.875 10LE o o 5 o o o 5 oTHR o o '90 o o o 90 VATR o o o o o 95 95 ToTL 490 1.135 4.910 195 o 95 6.825 t

4 l

O O -

C 70VN FIPS CODE 15125 NORTH HAMPTON 1953 AGRI O!VL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR -TOTL 1974 '

AGRI 400 10 70 0 5 0 685 DEVL 990 1.445 720 45 0 75 3.275 FORE 165 45 k.095 40 75 o 4.420 10LE 250 0 55 25 to 0 340 ,

OTHR 0 5 0 0 70 0 75 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 2.005 1.505 4.940 145 200 0 8.795 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15125 NORTH HAMPTON 1974 AGRI O!VL FORE IDLC OTHR WATR TOTL 1982

~

AGRI 210 40 55 50 0 0 355 DEVL 465 3,195 1.070 210 5 0 L.945 ,

FORE 10 25 3.275 5 o 0 IDLE 3 315 O 5 5 to o o 20 4

OTHR 0 10 15 65 70 0 160 <

WATR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TOTL 685 3.275 4.420 340 75 0 8.795 I

]

i

)

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15125 NORTH HAMPTON 1

1953 AGRI OEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR T0TL 1982 AGRI 240 0 75 10 30 0 355 l DEVL 1.685 1.435 1.645 75 105 0 4.945  !

FORE 20 55 3.185 55 0 0 10LE 20 3 315 l 0 0 0 0 0 20

, OTHR 40 15 35 5 65 o 160 l WATR 0 o o o o o o l TOTL 2.005 1 505 4.940 145 200 o- 8.795 i

e l

74 i O O TOWN FIPS Co0E : 151L3 PoRTSMouTH 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE oTHR WATR ToTL 1974 -

-AoRI . 95 o o 15 0 0 110 oEVL 1.185 3 575 1.955 415 60 o 7,190 FORE 60 5 2.31o 120 40 0 2.535 IDLE 180 o 15 40 o o 235

, oTHR 25 o to o 95 0 130 WATR o o o o o 720 J

720 ToTL 1.545 3.580 k.290 590 195 720 10.920 i

TOWN FIPS 000! : 151L5 PoRTSMouTH 197L AORI DEVL FORE 10LE oTHR WATR ToTL 1982 AGRI o o o o o o o i DEVL 110 7.1Lc 600 205 25 o 8.080 FORE o 35 1.905 IDLE o 5 o o 1.9's o 5 25 o o 30 oTHR 0 15 25 o WATR 105 o ik5 o o o o o 720 720 i ToTL 110 7.19o 2 535 235 130 720 10 920  !

TOWN FIPS CODE : 151L5 PoRTSMouTH 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IDLE oTHR WATR ToTL 1982 AGRI o o o o o o o OEVL 1.k6o 3 575 2.460 485 100 o 8.08o FORE 35 5 1.820 70 0 IDLE 15 1 945 30 o o o o o 30 oTHR 20 o 10 80 35 o 145

WATR o o o o o 720 720 ToTL I.545 3 580 4.290 590 195 720 10 920 l

e - -

O O .

TOWN FIPS CODE : 15155 RYE 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1974 AGRI 10 5 30 0 0 0 45 OEVL 560 2,380 1,090 245 115 0 k.390 FORE LS 35 3.010 45 20 0 3,155 IDLE 15 0 10 5 0- 0 30 OTHR 20 35 85 10 475 0 625 1

WATR 0 0 0 0 0 kk0 440 TOTL 650 2,455 4,225 305 610 440 8,685 TCWN FIPS C00! : 15155 RYE 197L AORI DEVL FORE ICLE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI 30 23 10 0 0 0 65 DEVL 15 L.330 655 0 5,lL5 15 130 FORE O 20 2,455 5 0 0 2.k80 10LE O O 15 10 0 0 25 OTHR 0 15 20 0 0 L95 530 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 hko kko 70TL 45 k.390 3.155 30 625 e40 3,685 I

i

. l TOWN FIPS 200! : 15155 RYE 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AGRI O 5 55 0 0 5 65 O!VL 620 2,380 1,720 265 180 0 5.165 FORE 25 2.395 25 30 5 0 2 k80

IOLE 5 0 15 0 0 5 25 OTHR 0 l 45 40 20 425 0 530 l WATR 0 0 0 0 0 440 440 l TOTL 650 2,655 4,225 305 60 440 8.685 1

i

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TOWN FIPS CODE : 15170 SEABROOK 1953 AGRI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR , TOTL-AORI 65 0 45 5 0 0 115 OEvt ~270 1.220 715 30 35 0 2.270 FORE 65 20 1,760 10 15 'O 1.870 10LE 55 0 15 0 0 0

' 70 OTHR S 40 40 0 1.260 5 1.350 WATR 0 0 5 0 0 L75 480 TOTL 460 1.280 2 580 65 1.310 480 6.155 TOWN FIPS CODE : 15170 SEABROOK 197L AORI O!VL FORE ICLE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AORI 30 0 0 0 0 0 30 O!VL 85 2.255 965 20 0 1k5 3.470 FORE O 5 390 0 10 0 905 IOLE o 5 0 50 0 0 55 OTHR 0 0 5 15 1.195 0 1.215 WATR 0 0 0 0 0 L80 4&O TOTL 115 2.270 1.370 70 1.350 450 6.155 TOWN FI'S CODE : 15170 $!AGR00K 1953 AORI DEVL FORE 10L! OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 ,

AORI 20 0 10 0 0 0 30 O!VL 330 1.220 1.655 LO 160 3 3.k70 FORE 5 20 870 0 10 0 905 IOLE 40 0 15 0 0 0 55 OTHR 5 40 25 1.140 0 5 1.215 WATR 0 0 3 0 o L73 430 TOTL b60 1.080 2.580 L5 1 310 680 l 6.155 I

O O c TOWN FIPS CODE : 15175 south HAMPToN t

1953 AGRI DEVL FORE IOLE oTHR WATR ToTL 1974 -

AGRI . 47o 20 120 .15 o o 625

. OEvL 270 350 285 55 lo o 970- ,

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WATR o o o o o 10 lo ToTL 920 405 3 455 205 145 to 5 140 TOWN FIPS 000! : 15175 SOUTH HAMPTON ,

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TOWN FIPS C00E : 15180 STRATHAM 197k AORI DEVL FORE 10LE OTHR WATR TOTL 1982 AORI 1.k30 25 160 50 5 0 1.670 >

OEVL 1.080 1.535 1.250 LO 20 0 '

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Exeter 270 3329 433 5452 452 6587 Greenland 21 213 50 643 Hampton 67 767 223 2083 342 3407 472 5411 <

Hamoton Falls 19 88 59 352 65 439 Kensington 7 32 12 77 14 104 Kingston 47 276 99 740 113 837 New Castle 8 180 11 34 13 74 Newfields 8 399 15 978 19 1311 Newton 17 51 26 105 31 143 North Hampton 79 499 158 1610 178 1739 Portsmouth 669 8797 994 15590 Rye 1057 16799  ;

60 433 92 565 102 Seaerook 878 ,

116 3078 191 8382 *208 South Hampton 5726 ,

8 96 7 257 8 462 Stratham 38 365 93 1816 106 2149 Totals 1618 20082 2636 40256 2966 43726 SOURCE: New Hampshire Department of Employment Security I

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l W Marmsf ac tear irm newt PJorv Maru.sf actier Ing Dat a 1980 19R1 19R2 19R3 inwn Mtj FE NMt f NMF Mtf MF NMtf NMF Mtf ME NMU NME MU ME NMU NME Brentwnort 3 24 4 SF 16 72 O O 20 68 0 O 17 94 O O fet Kerigston 13 35 O O 10 32 O O 17 37 0 0 22 58 O O Empter 26 1743 30G 3G24 2R 1940 335 3R76 24 1792 357 3939 23 1184 3GO 3924 cr ean t arwt 2R 3OR O O 29 523 0 0 32 595 O O 3G 582 O O Itampton 19 S49 24R 2507 21 SR9 257 2592 1R G42 2GR 2712 331 3375 O O flasrp ton F a t i s 37 202 O O 34 227 O O 34 223 O O 44 254 O O Kenstrinton 7 4i O O 7 40 0 0 9 45 O O 8 G7 O O Minoston 8 R3 49 ?G9 9 43 4R 2R3 8 48 52 355 7 3G 70 490 Jew Castle 11 201 O O t1 39 O O h 28 O O G 21 O O S4*wf telets 11 748 0 0 9 759 0 0 10 G33 0 0 9 694 O O Nawton 17 85 O O 19 R1 O O 1R 7G O O 23 92 O O N,pr t h t eamp t on RR 615 0 0 9R GG9 O O 103 729 O O t14 833 0 0 Por t smen s t h 33 3220 730 9540 93 2RG4 779 IOtR4 44 2GR5 7R9 SOG7G 4G 2448 82R 11168 Cyp G7 470 0 0 75 503 0 0 84 SIG O O 98 548 0 O seabrook 19 1822 103 5832 22 1576 109 G746 23 1401 124 9502 23 1407 132 10253 Soutfiflampton G 170 0 0 R 960 0 0 7 187 0 O ti 179 O O s t r a t ham 55 580 0 O GO G29 O O G3 G28 O O 72 787 O O Totals 44R SORRR 1440 21129 499 9941 152R 239Hf 522 9753 1590 271R4 883 17684 1390 25835 VFV: MU = Marwsf ac t ur e ng Uni t s NMtj = Non-Marnsf ac tor t rwp Un l t s MF = Marusfacturing Employees NME = Non-Manufacturing Employees PJ0 t T 1 eros (O) frwitcate that marwsf ac t ur i ng/non-marust ac tisr t s .g eta t a was riot repor tert separa tely becaisse the rusmbers were ret large ennugh to break riown .

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.g 5-Average AnruJet Wates Portsmouth Labor Merhet Ares 1980 et 1980 c5 1984 of 1984 03 Units Employees Units Employees Units Employees Units E gloyees mfg 134 9511 138 9051 141 7548 144 7366 DG 78 5460 76 5668 75 4044 76 4056 NOG $6 4051 62 3363 66 3504 68 3310 NmfG 1761 24340 1975 26887 2244 33689 2531 33377 TOT IND 1895 33851 2113 35938 2385 41187 2675 40743 O LOC 47 3489 48 3508 48 3414 48 3304 of 1980-84 03 1980-84 Units Employees Units Employees mfg 1.02 -4.52 0.85 -4.04 DG -0.78 -5.83 0.00 -6.47 NDG 3.34 2.86 1.86 -0.32 NmfG 4.97 6.72 5.09 4.42 TOT IND 4.71 4.00 4.83 2.54 toc 0.42 -0.43 0.00 -1.19 i

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'Ff O O Cmployment and Wages by Labor Market Area in New Hampshire (First and Third Quarters Only)

Ist Quarter 3rd Quarter Year Portsmouth Labor Market Units Avg. Emp. Units Avg. Emp.

I 1980 Manufacturing 134 $511 138 9051 Durable Goods 78 5460 76 5688 Non-Durable Goede 56 is051 62 3363  :

Non-Manufacturing 1761 24340. 1975 26887 Total Industries 1895 33851 2113 35938 Local Government 47 3489 48 3508 Labor Market Area: Brentwood. East Kingston, Exeter. Greenland. Hampton. '

Hampton Falls. Kensington. New Castle. North Httmpton.

Portsmouth. Rye Seabrook South Hampton. Stratham (NOTE: 'Only towns in the 10 mile EPZ are listed here.)

1 1981 Manufacturing 136 8634 147 7985 l Durable Goods 76 5160 78 4771 t Non-Ourable Goods 60 3k74 69 3214 Non-Manufacturing 1853 24837 2090 31345 Total incustries 1989 33471 2237 39330 Local Government 47 3447 48 3289 Labor Market Area: Same as 1980.

1982 Manufacturing 145 7860 152 7906 Duraole Goods 80 4538- 82 4605 Non-Durable Goods 65 3322 70 3301 Non-Manufacturing 1921 29112 2189 34088 s Total industries 2066 36971 2341 41994 Local Government 47 3373 48 3224  :

Labor Market Area: Same as 1980.

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Year Portsmouth Labor Market Units Avg. Emp. Units Avg. Emp.

L 1983 Manufacturing 137 7215 141 6'992 Ourable Goods 70 3842 72 3858 Non-Durable Goods 67 3373 69 3134 .

Non-Manufacturing 2086 30653 2367 36791 Total industries 2223 37868 2508 43783 1

'.ocal Government 49 3414 48 3418  ;

i Labor Market Arti Same as 1980. ,

1984 Manufacturing 141 7548 144 7366 Ourable Goods 75 4044 76 4056 Non-Durable Goods 66 3504 68 3310 Non-Manufacturing 2244 33639 2531 33377

  • Total industries 2385 41187 2675 40743 Local Gover nment 48 3414 48 3304 4 .

l Labor Market Area: Same as 1980.

I a

1985 Manufacturing 237 17622 Durable Goods 124 10160 THIRO QUARTER Non-Durable Goods 113 7462 NOT Non-Manufacturing 3583 40047 AVAILABLE Total Industries 3820 57669 Local Government 66 6396 Labor Market Area: Includes only Exeter, Greenland, Hampton, New Castle, Newfields North Hampton, Portsmouth, Rye, Stratham.

l (Now Dover-Portsmouth-Roches ter MSA)

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. t Comparison of Employment and Wages by Labor Market Area in New Hampshire I (1980 - Q1 to 1984 - Q1)

Change 1990 - 198k Portsmouth Labor Market Units Avg. Emp.

J Manufacturing 7 -1963 [

a Durable = Goods -3 -1416 i Non-Durable Goods 10 -547 t Non-Manufacturing 483 9299  ;

Total industries 490 7336 '

, Local Government 1 -75 i i

I 3

Average Annual Rates of Change 1980 - 1984 l Portsmouth Labor Market Units Avg. Emp.

' Manufacturing 1.28% -5 95%  !

Durable Goods -0 99% -7.79%

Non-Ourable Goods 4.66% -3 69%

Non-Manufacturing 6.25% 8.43%

Total Industries 5 92% 5 03%

Local Government 0 53% -5 45%

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Town Month / Year Passenger Handscapped Legastatute Veteran FFOW Natsonal Guard Subtotal Total Crentwood , 05/1981 1321 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1322 1699 03/1982 1168 N/A N/A I N/A N/A 1169 1485 10/1983 1207 6 0 1 0 0 1214 3707 01/1984 1328 8 0 1 0 0 1337 1728 01/1985 1433 5 0 1 0 0 1439 1902 01/1986 1588 2 0 1 0 0 1591 2091 01/1987 1716 3 0 1 0 0 1720 2224 East Kingston 05/1981 866 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 867 1074 03/1982 717 N/A N/A 1 P/A N/A 618 912 10/1983 713 4 0 0 0 0 717 934 01/1984 795 5 0 0 0 2 802 1901 01/1985 769 6 0 1 0 0 776 991 01/1986 Set 5 0 2 0 1 889 1100 01/1987 1020 9 0 2 0 2 loll 1278

,%.z/ eter 05/1981 6553 N/A N/A N/A 4 N/A 6557 8128 10/1983 7060 29 5 6 0 3 7103 8517 01/1984 7527 38 5 8 1 to 7589 8716 01/1985 8066 54 G S 1 10 8139 1688 01/1986 8667 67 0 7 2 7 8750 19197 01/1987 8745 81 0 8 3 9 8846 19259 Greenland 05/1981 1565 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1566 1941 03/1982 1538 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1539 1955 10/1983 1592 5 1 1 0 2 1601 2042 01/1984 1668 5 1 1 1 3 1679 2064 01/1985 1797 9 0 1 1 3 1811 2268 01/1986 2061 9 0 3 0 4 2077 2587 01/1987 2219 to 0 3 0 3 2235 2730 crepten 05/1981 7631 N/A N/A 5 N/A N/A 7636 9465 03/1982 8546 N/A N/A 6 N/A N/A 8552 10864 10/1983 8115 25 5 7 0 2 8154 9527 01/1984 8634 33 5 6 0 7 8685 9780 g 01/1985 7800 49 6 7 0 6 7942 9181 t

01/1986 8626 55 0 8 1 4 8694 9989 01/1987 10013 69 0 8 1 6 10097 11388 Ctepton Fall. 05/1981 1209 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1210 1499 01/1982 1855 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1156 1469 10/1983 1985 2 1 0 0 0 1988 1385 01/1984 1122 2 1 0 0 2  !!27 1417 01/1985 1013 4 0 0 0 1 telt 1347 G1/1986 1121 7 0 0 0 2 1138 1456 01/1987 1299 8 0 0 0 2 1349 1655 Cossangtsn 05/1981 1087 N/A N/A 1 N/A n/A ROSS 1348 03/1982 1290 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1291 1639 10/1983 939 3 0 0 J 0 942 1313 01/1984 1006 3 0 0 0 0 1009 1342 01/1985 1981 3 0 0 0 0 1084 1498 01/1986 1215 3 0 0 0 0 1656 2868 01/1987 1265 3 0 0 0 0 1268 1687

O Towt> Moath/ Year Passee 9er 81and s c a p pe d Le91 stature Vetersa FPOW Cational Gesa r d Sa[b t e t a l Total Esn9ston 05/1981 3261 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 3263 4044

. 03/1982 3290 N/A N/A 2 U/A N/A 3292 4183 10/1983 3110 19 3 2 1 0 3135 4030 01/1984 3194 19 3 2 2 1 3221 3981 01/1985 3834 30 0 1 1 4 3870 5467 01/1986 4028 31 0 1 1 3 4064 5297 01/1987 4077 31 0 1 2 4 4115 5306 Cow Castle 05/1951 586 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 586 727 03/1982 627 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 627 198 10/1983 591 1 0 0 0 1 593 671 01/1984 620 2 0 0 0 1 623 700 ,

01/1985 642 2 0 0 0 0 644 130 01/1986 655 7 0 0 2 0 664 754 01/1987 699 6 0 0 2 1 708 794 (%'

(D

\ Q fields 05/1981 03/1982 645 631 N/A N/A N/A N/A 0

0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 445 631 800 842 10/1983 522 1 0 0 0 0 513 660 01/1984 542 1 0 0 0 0 543 670 01/1985 619 2 0 0 0 0 621 804 01/1986 637 4 0 0 0 0 641 835 01/1987 455 7 0 0 0 0 662 853 Cowton 05/1981 2129 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 2130 2640 03/1982 2477 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2479 3150 10/1983 2103 7 0 3 0 3 2116 2594 01/1984 2248 11 0 3 0 4 2266 2710 01/1985 2429 18 0 4 0 2 2453 3435 01/1986 2638 25 0 2 1 2 2668 3684 ,

01/1987 2657 29 0 2 1 2 2691 3629 Certh M a s!. - 05/1981 2453 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2455 3043 03/1982 2772 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2774 3524 10/1981 2585 5 0 2 0 2 2594 3220 01/1984 2890 5 0 2 0 5 2902 1559 0&/1985 4060 18 0 2 0 10 4090 4961 O.- q1/1986 01/1987 4390 3460 29 16 0

0 2

2 0

0 9

4 4430 3482 5344 4399 Portsmouth 05/1981 13390 N/A N/A 9 N/A N/A 13399 16608 03/1992 13873 N/A N/A 10 N/A N/A 13883 17637 10/1983 13225 72 12 16 1 12 13338 15792 01/1984 13833 102 12 17 3 39 14006 15953 01/1985 15068 125 4 24 2 31 15250 17643 01/1986 16100 146 0 24 2 32 16304 18614 01/1987 16863 162 0 19 3 29 17076 19236

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Cye 05/1981 3017 .N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 3019 3742 03/1982 3701 N/A N/A 3 N/A N/A 3784 4087 10/1983 3472 14 1 1 0 2 3490 4104 i 01/1984 3677 16 1 1 0 5 3700 4231 01/1985 3808 20 0 1 0 6 3835 4474 01/1986 1960 20 0 2 0 6 3988 4638 01/1987 4278 21 0 2 0 8 4309 4928 Combreek 05/1981 4339 N/A N/A 3 N/A N/A 4342 5341 03/1982 5202 N/A N/A i N/A N/A 5206 6613 10/1983 4761 41 1 12 1 6 4816 5809 01/1984 4936 51 1 12 2 1 5003 5821 01/1985 6071 90 0 14 3 0 6118 7819 01/1986 6160 122 0 12 3 1 6298 4157 01/1987 5810 130 0 12 3 1 5956 7422 Jeuth'Nampton 05/1981 676 N/A N/A 0 N/A N/A 676 839 03/1982 748 N/A N/A 1 "E/ A N/A 749 958 10/1983 532 1 1 0 0 0 534 442 01/1984 588 2 1 0 0 0 59E 895 01/1985 596 2 0 0 0 0 598 944 01/1986 694 2 0 0 0 0 696 1082 01/1987 732 2 0 0 0 0 734 1812 Stratham 05/1981 1939 N/A N/A 1 N/A N/A 1940 2405 03/1982 2007 N/A N/A 2 N/A N/A 2089 2654 10/1983 2007 8 1 3 0 1 2020 2569 01/1984 2137 10 1 4 0 3 2155 2648 01/1985 2428 9 0 3 0 5 2445 3000 01/1986 2710 11 0 3 0 4 2728 3320 01/1987 3087 13 0 2 1 5 3108 3726 A

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Automatic Traffic Recorder Counts 1970 1970 1975 1975 1980 1980 1986 1986 AVG TOTAL AVG TOTAL AVG TOTAL A VG TOTAL DAY vtMICLES DAY VE NICL E S DAY VE NICL E S DAY VE NICL E S E

E IhGSTON El J (51) 5149 1879000 6237 2276000 8581 3140000 14689 5361000 GREENLAND MAMPION (tott) 23747 8668000 27265 9952000 26238 9603000 43317 15811000 MAMPTON FALLS LINSINGTON CINGSTON NE3 CASTLE NEWi! ELDS NEWTON NORTJ MAMPTON (US1) 9163 3344500 10175 3714000 11458 4194000 16350 5968000 PORTSMOUTM RYE SEABROOK 7158 2612554 7169 2616767 8501 3111410 10018 3656819 50ff! MAMPTON STRATNAM (101) 8463 3089000 11074 4042000 12968 4746000 19295 7043000 i 53680 19593054 61920 22600767 67746 24794410 103669 37839819 Sourca: Department of Trarsportation, fransportation Planning and Systemr Management, NN.

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v ELECTRIC LCAD TCPICAST THROUGH n2 YEAR 2005 For

, P'JBLIC SERVICE CO.*JNTi CT ?!I'd HA."JSH!?I 1986 EDITIC1 9

Prepared bf:

Ener?/ .".anagement Cepart: ent

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The report of the Electric Lead Forecast presents a forecast for Public Service C: pany of New Hangshire's electric sales and peak load demands for the next twenty year period 1985-2005. The forecast is an input to the planning and decisien making process related to establishing energy management programs and generatien, trant. mission and icng-ran e fuel requirements, as well as financial planning and ana[ysis.

SU!^'.GY hhile Public Service C pany of New Harpshire's sales of electricity have in:: eased by 6.1 percent in 1984 and by 4.7 percent in 1935, PSNH estimates that conservatien will held d:wn future energy g::wth rates. This fore:ast calls fer sales to increase at an annual rate of 2.7 per:ent eve:

the next twenty yea:s.

The major f::e:ss: results are sh:wn en Table 1-1.

Ele:::icity sales a:e p::]e::ed to in:: ease f:: 6.4 billien kilewstt-heurs last yes: to 11 billten kilevattheurs in the yes: 2005. Additi:nally, PSNH's w:nter peak, the highest total a :unt of pcwer demanded by cust: ers ever a single h:ur, is expected to in:: esse annually by 1.8 pe: cent eve:

the next twenty years frc: 1,355 megavst s to 1,925 cegavst:s.

r' Net Prime Cutput vill increase at the same rate as electricity sales. Lead Management programs a:e expected t:

effectively limit peak lead growth in the fere:ast period. A  ;

result of these lead =anagement pregrams will be :: increase annual 1:ad fa:::: ft: its current level cf under sixty i' percent to jus eve: seventy percent by the yes: 2005.

P:cjections for New Hangshire's e:On =y (cf which PS!E l serves ever 70 percent at the retail level) include pepulation grevth of 1.3 percent per yea:, nearly twice as high as the U.S. average of 0.7 percent. Nenmanufseturing and manufa:turing employment are expe: ed to rise 1.9 percent and 1.5 percent respe::ively per year. Total empleyment is projected to g::w at 1.8 percent per year, abcut ene half cf one pe::ent higher than the U.S. rate. Pers nal in: cme (which can be taken as a measure of e :ncmic grevth c:= parable to Gress Naticnal Product) will increase by alm:st 3% annually f:ca 1985 to 2005.

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SE'TICN 2 A CCe'.PARISCN CP NEW HAMPSHIFI, hTA CGJ.*C MC UtE C'!It"C S XES ,

Su-r.a ry i It is well known that New Hag shire's econcef, and.thus electric sales grcwth, have been nothing short of rebust when mirrored against natienal and even regional performance. The '

.o many variables which can be pointed to - populatien growth, t low une rleyment rates, pers nal ine me growth, to name a few

-allpoInttoahealthyecenerfthatisentrenchedinthe benefits of the receverj. Signs of weakening with regard to New Hag shire's above average performance are nowhere in 3 sight. t

,, The historical average change in these fa:ters can be seen in Table 2-1 and Graph 2-1. C.::ing the peri 4 ISf4-1904 the increase in pcpulatien was 49.4% in New Hampshire, 13.51 in New England and 25.31 in the United States. E pley ent ,

i.

levels in the P.anufacturing sect:: represent even ::re drar.stic differences between New Hampshi:e and the ether areas. While New England and the United States had an

,, increases of 6.1% and 11.9% respectively in e.snufacturing egleyment frc: 1964-1954, New Harpshire had an cutstanding

._ g t..h rate of 43.7%. ,

i ..

i There are several factors stich cent:ibute t: New ,

-J Hanfshire's perf:::ance as a grevth leader. As reported in The Sixth M.nual Study cf General P.anufa: uring C11 .stes tj 2

Alexander Grant & C rpany, New Ha pshire ranks best in the j nati:n in State and Lc:al Tax burden as well as ra hours lest due to W0rk St ppages. New Harpshire also ranks test in New

l England in te
:s of P.611: Welf are Expenditures per Capita.

, Une.pleyrent C pensati:n paid and edu:stica cf the v::k l fer:e. The cet::inatien Of a pt ductive and reliable larc:

J for:e with a favorable tax structure is extremely attractive

.+

to industrf.

A study by U.S. News and World Pepcrt en N:ve-ter 11,1985 ranks P.anchester, N.H. as the third best city in the

, Natien for business. The report cited P.anchester's lcw unempicyment rate, increases in constructicn activity and e=ployment as indicators of its attractiveness to business.

] Proximity to the high-tech industrial belt along F. cute 128 has allcwd new businesses to blessem and established firms l to thrive in P.anchester.

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'l life, and a sort of magnetism effect results in theMd to this, icver

.i skilled werkers into Ncv Hangshire.relecatien of rany high technol This is the for=a.a in thethat

., produces the lovest unerployment rate of any state ,

U.S. for 1945, and the fastest pcpulatien grewth in New England.

s' Again referring to Table 2-1 and Graph 2-2, the

expectatien is for New Harpshire to continue to cutperform New England and the United States. Populatien in New m Harpshire should increase at twice the rate of the reglen and the natien in the next twnty years. E pleyrent gre-th

- should also be strenger and the une.pleyrent rate lese: than regienally and natienally in the forecast period.

i,

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sales for Phlic Service cf New Harpshire, New England and the United States. N: ratte: h:v the c:rparisen is rade, it is evident that PSNH is cutperictming both the United States ,

and New England in electricity sales gresth. Tc: the twenty year interval 1964-1964, i

9::w.h rate of 6.0\ PS a experienced an ave: age art.ual

and the United States had a 4.8% g
:vth rate.while New England had a 4.;

With the knesledge cf the histori:al trends in  !

j electricitysalesshvninTable2-2stichissuppcrtedbyi the e::n:mte data in Table 2-1, it is possible t put Pd. : ,

See/ ice's f:recasted g::vth rate int perspe:tive by ,

Cu:ing the early years, the 1956 Edition'sc:rparing it to the varicusI

1935-1995 retail 2.8) esticated f
:9:e-th rate fere:ast ef 2.45 is icver than the ::e th 9:7-h rates cf 2.M f::the United States by it:Graw-$111 end the E. gland esticated by Oata Res:u::es Inc. for the sa ethe United States PSNH's ten year gt:vth rate is abcut egaal to the g::speriod.,n esticated by the N:rth Merican Electric Feliability Coun:i1 f r the United States and the 9::v;h estirated by NE?CC'. f::

the period 1986-1996 f:: New England. Given FSNH's past track re:Ord of highet historical sales gresth relative :

the U.S. and New England, and the expectatiens of higher etenemic growth in New Ha pshire, the first ten years of the

] 1986 Editien forecast appear c:nse:/ative sten c:rpared to '

these forecasts for the U.S. and New England. ',

The icnger term gre .h rates, en the other hand, are at the higher end of the range of esticates predicted by the other sources. As can te seen, fc: the years 1985-2000 the  !

i 1985 Editi n fere asts an average arr.ual gre-th rate of 3.M

cc pared to forecasts for the United States by DR
ef 2.5\

and 2.M by M:Graw-Hill; and fe:ecasts f :

]

New England by CR:

cf 2.9% and 2.1\ by NEPcc* fe: the period 1985-2001. t

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/' .f The 1986 Editien's icver revth rate frem 1985-1995 and ,

hi her grevth rate frem 1985-2 00 have been significantly 1 in luenced by the effects of electricity *s price en de.tr.d.

1 The lower grevth during the early years of the 1986 Editien '

Forecast reflect PShH's higher real price forecast, stiile the t later yearr with higher growths reflect PShH's IcVer and rcre  ;

stable real price projections.  ;

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a PUBLIC S D'/ ICE CC.TAhY CT hT4 FAUSHIFE i

' ECCNCetIC COMPARISCN BE"WEcl

hT4 HAMPSHIKE, hTW D C JND Abt THI UNITED 5"'ATES '

t AVDAGE PDCC*I' CHANGE IN KEY IhtICATCP.S .

1964-1984 j 1955-2005 Actual j T::e,ast' r N.H. N.E. U.S. l N.H. N.E. U.S.

~

j P:pulatien Change 49.4% 13.6\ 25.3% 1 30.6\ 16.7\ 15.5\  :

Househ ld Change 73.8% 39.7\ 43.1% l 36.9\ 39.1% 25.2\  ;

I a 6 tal E: pleyment Change 102.5% 52.4\ 62.7% l 43.5\ 29.C\ 25.4%

Mah facturing l 43.7% 6.1% 11.9\ l 35.5% 12.6% 4.2\ l

.. No.- .anufacturing 151.8\ 79.05 84.0\ ( 46.3% 34.45 34.4) L J l  !

Pe'es:nal Ine:me Change 161.5% 90.5\ 103.1\ l 76.1% 65.0\ 64.1%  ;

1 i Une:Floyment Rate 4.3\ 4.9% 7.5% 1 4.0% 6.0% 7.11

. (Knd of peried) 1 5:urce of fere:ast data for New Ha.pshi:c is the 1956 Edition of the Lead T::ecast c

Seur:e of f: recast data f r New England is the 1986 j

Editien of the NEPICL Lead r recast  !

"' 50urce cf f recast data f:r the Un'ted 3:stes is ata Rescurces, Inc. U. S. Long *erm Feview, Ta'l 1935 >

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1986 NEW H Edition Load Foreca st  !

y 170.0 % ---..--~~~~-44 P SHIRE NEW ENC 1,.A ND AN D THE Unit E0 ST/ T E S


~~~~~~---------------------~~~------~~---

140.0% -

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. 1986 Edition Load Forecast  ;

NEW HAMPSHIRE NEW ENGl.AND AND THE UNITED 'iTATEt 8 0.o x --- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --' - ~~~

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'a ne first step in develeping the 1986 Editien Lead g rotecast is to derive a forecast of grevth in the local ec:ncry. Since it is sill kncvn that there is a direct

,' relatienship between ecen::.ie grevth and gree.h in .

~

electricity salec, the e neaic forecast is ene of the priearf building blecks in develeping a reliable estirate of future electricity sales. F.egienal e n:nic grevth is in a

part dependent vpen expected natienal ecenesic greath and f also dependent upcn the the uniqueness of the local ecener/

relative to the national etenemy.

C'J.Fr:7 ccc TICt:5

.. The !ew Harp 3 hire e::n:ny is A e of the nest vig:::us

. in the natien. The table telev she.cs !:ew F.a.pshire's ranking 4 a :ng the 50 States based en percent change during the 1931-1934 time period.

s .

CA*""3"RY FR3 Gersth in !::nagricultural jobs 5th in the !;atien Gre th in ranufs:turing ::bs 5th

- Gre th in Service Industry jchs 5th Gr:vth in Wh:lesale and Fetail Trade j:ts 3rd

, Grew.h in !:n anufacturing jets 4th j Pate cf LT.enpley..en; leves; in the t;a;i:n Grewth in Resident P:pulatien 15th Gr wth in Personal In:: e 3rd Gre .h in Per Capita :n: re 4th ne data f:: 1935, st.i:h is te::ning available as Of

,_, this writing, reveals the c:ntinued strength cf the ;;ev Ha.pshire e::n =/. ?;ev Ha pshire again has ene cf the le est

- une:F l :y ent rates in the 1:stien, alrest ene half cf the the U.S. une:pleyrent rate. P pulation gre th rerains high, with the State raintaining it's prier grevth ranking. E pl y ent

~

and in: re gt:vth also to be c:ntinue areng the highest in the 1:stien.

~

Pe:ent declines in interest rates and energy prices

_ appear to be giving another boost to the lecal as sill as .

national e::ncelec. It is clear he-tver that tiew Ha.pshire

- has c:nsistently perferred tetter than the U.S. average. It is assu ed in the fers: cast tnat !;ew Ha.pshire will centinue to perf r.n bettet than *.he !!ati0n in the fort:ast perio!

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.'n..i.E....N.ATICt!AL FtRECA_ST 7e The cutit;ok fer greeth in the United States ecencef originates with the senemic censulting firm of Data .

Rescurces, Incorporated. The racro-ecenemic scenario used in this forecist is the Trend esticate published in the CRI U.S.  !

Leng-Tern '.teview for 'the rall of 1985. The forecast centains the follcwing highlights: .

3

)

  • The ec0neny's thderlying gre d rate will be dgnificantly slcver than in the past. Grewth in roaMir should average 2.54 in the next gaarter- <

e century cor. pared with 3.4% between 1958 and 1984. l Inflation can be expected to increase significantly frem its recent pa:e, but shculd not return to the

] average rate of the late 1970's. The CPI averages a.7nual increases of 5.6% in the next 25 years.

l The prcblem of the federal budget is leng-lived. The deficit rerains well abcve 1.0% of Gi? thecugh:ut the projection period. In real teres, it never dips

., s belew $165 billien.

" Energy prices eventually begin to rise faster than cverall inflatien, but crises of the ragnitude of

. CPIC I and CPEC II are not envisaged.

~iMr r.?rkets irgrove slewly. The average u*amel%:mt rate fer the projection period (7.1%)

Er exceeh that for the last 25 years, rainly reflecting thy c:ntinuing effects cf Srces that have already sign:hemtly~ raised unerpleyment relative to its historical reciid,

]

  • Real interest rates rerau, 7igh as deregulatica of the financial system centinues ta raise the cost of funds to institutiens.

l

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DRI's Trend projecticn assumes: that the national e:

experiences no =ajor mishaps betwetn new and 2010. The Oncr/

- projection is best interpreted as the mean of all the t possible paths that the ecener/ could fellow in the future.

' CRI raintains that the "s.ecth-growth" charleteristics of the trend projection rake it the best bara from which to evaluate the effects of different asst. ptiens en the everall cutic0%.

DRI's forecast is also useful in providine the Corp m y

~

with a censistent set of assu=ptions :.bcut the naticnal l  !

ec0nc=f. For instance, while the Load Forecast uses the f

ecenetic cutleck frem cRI, Company fuel praes a re forecast j 1

3-2 l

li s _

using the DRI Energy Service and financial interest rates are calculated using DRI financial services. In this way, all ,

Company assumptions regarding cutside facters which effect I planning are censistent, creating a mere reliable set of '

planning assu=ptiens.

'IHE NEW HA.SSHIRE ECCUOMY

'Ihe State's attitude tcward business and residents has contributed greatly to New Ha:pshire's above average grevch.

In New England, New Ha.pshire is ranked first by the 1984 Alexander Grant Study in terms of business clirate.

Consequently, ecencaic expansion in the past has surpassed regicnal performance, resulting in a strenger econcmic base for the State. And, althcugh the cuticek nationally is also bright, for New Hampshire the cutleck is even more positive.

The factors that rake locating in New Hampshire attractive to

-business, such as icw tax rates, a favorable political clirate for business, etc., will centinue to distinguish New Ha:pshire as an area cenducive to business expansien. The' e=plcyment gains resulting frem business expansions will be concentrated in high technology industries, which are distinguished by their high growth, recessien-resistant nature.

State empicyment is prcjected using a model which relates natienal empley=ent with labor characteristics of the New Hampshire ecenc=f. Regicnal eccnemic forces, such as tax structure, vage rates and energy costs to industry will shape the lccal business climate and the characteristics of labor as a factne of prcductien. Therefore, these variabbn as well as the natienal ecenemic cuticek are important and their effect en the New Ha.pshire ecenc=f is modeled to deteredne the level of State explcyment.

I Table 3-1 shews the ecjer results of the New Ha pshire ecenemic forecast. State pcpulatien is projected by natural increase (births minus deaths) and migrant cc.penents.

In-migratien is m: deled as a functicn of explcyment grev h, as the pcpulatien grcws to fulfill the demand for labor.

Incere growth is ecdeled as a function of National inccme grcwth.

The New Hampshire ecenc=y will centinue to cutperform the national ecenc=f, but will reflect the national cutlock in that growth in the next twenty years will be at a slewer rate than in the last years. Manufacturing empicyment gecwth will be concentrated in Nenelectrical Machinery, Prirary and Fabricated Metals and Other Ncndurables.

Hewver, ccst of the growth in jchs will ccee frem the Ncnranufacturing sector.

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if Pcpulation growth will average about 1.1% per year cc= pared with the historical rate of over 2% per year. cver

'a one half of the growth in pcpulatien will centinue te ecce j frem in-migration into the State, but the rate will be slower than in the past due to the decrease ir. employment growth. .

Real perscnal ince=e crewth will average at abcut 3.0%

per year, cne percentage point less than the historical growth in real personal incese. This rate of increase is again censistent with the expectation that New Hampshire will do better then the nation, but at less than the histerical New Ha=pshire experience.

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TABLE 3-1 PUBLIC SERVICE CCMPANY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE .

1986 EDITICN ECCNOMIC FCPICAST FCR NEW HAMPSHIPI Average Annual Grevt.n Rates 1985 1995 2005 85-95 85-05 EMPI4YMDir (000's)

T W.AL NCGAGRICUI/It' PAL 486.4 607.1 698.5 2.2% 1.8%

J WAL MANUTACIt'PIS 124.4 150.2 168.5 1.9% 1.5%

"'otal Durable Manufactures 84.9 109.1 128.4 2.5% 2.1%

, Lu::ber & Wood Products 5.2 5.5 5.6 0.6% 0.4%

Furaiture & Fixtures 1.4 1.5 1.7 0.7% 1.1%

Stene, Clay & Glass Products 3.0 3.8 3.9 2.4% 1.3\

T Pricary & Fabricated Metals 12.1 16.3 19.8 3.0% 2.5%

d Ncnelectrical Machinery 25.6 38.4 50.1 4.1% 3.4%

Electrical Machinery 26.8 29.9 30.0 1.1% 0.6%

., other Durables 10.9 13.7 17.2 2.4% 2.4%

Tctal Nendurable Manufactures 39.5 41.1 40.1 0.4% 0.1%

] reed & Kindred Products 3.0 2.6 2.3 -1.4% -1.4%

Textile & Apparel 6.4 5.3 3.8 -1.9% -2.6%

Paper & Allied 5.7 5.5 5.6 -0.4% -0.1)

J Printing & Publishing 7.2 7.9 8.6 0.S\ 0.9%

Leather & Leather Prcducts 5.6 5.3 2.2 -0.5% -4.7\

Cther Ncndurables 11.6 14.5 17.6 2.3% 2.1%

70 AL NCW.ANUTAC'It' RING 362.0 456.9 530.0 2.4% 1.95 censtructicn & Mining 33.C 44.1 51.1 2.9% 2.2%

- Finance, Ins. & Real Estate 26.2 37.9 44.3 3.8% 2.7\

] Services 99.0 122.9 141.5 2.2% 1.8%

k?.clesale & Retail Trade 125.0 156.5 184.4 2.3% 2.0\

~

Transportatien & Pub Ut1 15.6 16.6 15.7 0.6% .0%

Tetal Gcvernment 63.2 78.9 93.0 2.2% 2.0%

rederal 12.2 13.9 15.4 1.31 1.2%

State 51.0 65.0 77.7 2.5% 2.1%

PCPL'IATICN (000's)

Total Pcpulatien 998.0 1176.4 1302.9 1.7\ 1.3%

Natural Change 77.7 48.1 Net Migrants j

100.7 78.4 Total Households 377.1 474.3 545.1 2.3% 1.9%

_ PIAL PERS0taL ISOCME (Bill 725) $5,963 58,277 $10,531 3.3% 2.9%

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w-9 9 NEW HAMPSHIRE .

POPULATION PROJECTIONS-TOTAL POPULATION for CITIES and TOWNS 1980-2010 ,

1 MAY 1987 i l

NH40SP l

NEW HAMPSHIRE OFFICE OF STATE PLANNING l

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. O V

1. INTRODUCTION The population projections for the state, its counties, towns and cities i presented in this and other reports _ are the result of a demographic / economic i model, called DEMOS. Originally developed in 1980 to provide projections for I the southeast New Hampshire water supply study, DEMOS has been extended to project growth trends for 234 municipalities, the ten counties and the stalte. 1 Conceptually, DEMOS is' designed as a disaggregated projection system which attempts to model growth patterns of, and interrelationships among, distinct components of New Hampshire's population and economy. For example, group quarters population, military dependents, college students and other "special" population groups are projected separately. Two types of migration are recognized: employment-related and retirement-related migration. The model is, therefore, sensitive to variations in growth patterns of these different segments of the population. Appendix 1 explains the methodology employed in DEMOS to generate these projections. Complex Systems Research Center at the University of New Hampshire carried out the computer processing to produce these projections.

The projections contained in this report represent the third time DEMOS has been used to project New Hampshire's population. The first set of projections were released in April, 1981, and the second in October, 1985. Both the current set of projections and the October, 1985 figures utilize the full array of 1980 census of population and housing characteristics whereas the 1981 projections did not. The principal difference between these two sets of projections is the method used to project e=ployment. The earlier forecasts of county employment were calculated on the basis of relationships to national employment projections.

The following table illustrates the differences between the October, 1985 projections and those contained in this document. Overall, the new projections reflect the strong growth trends experienced in the state since the early part of the decade. In 1990, the new projections are 2.5 percent above the October, 1985 forecasts; for 2000, the difference is 12.5 percent and for 2010, it is 22.7 percent.

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Tcble 1.1 Comparison of October,1985 and May,1987 Population Projections Total Population (Oct. 1985) Total Population (May, 1987) 1990 2000 2010 1990 2000 2010 Balknap 50,550 57,300 63,930 52,403 64,895 78,005 Carroll 35,990 43,240 51,370 34,408 44,548 57,865 Chtshire 71,770 81,200 89,190 72,667 88,704 106,408 Coos 37,580 41,000 43,870 35,845 38,214 41,375 Grafton 74,490 83,440 92,460 76,877 92,678 111,284 Hillsborough 333,C10 373,410 407,800 347,015 431,053 520,132 Msrrimack 116,040 131,350 146,380 121,425 153.651 188,277 Rockingham 253,970 302,980 352,020 263,149 351,421 442,753 Strafford 103,830 117,730 128,780 101,855 123,170 144,153 Sullivan 42,480 48,220 53,460 41,517 51,566 63,226 N.H. 1,119,710 1,279,870 1,429,260 1,147,161 1,439,900 1,753,478 1

Table 1.2 Percent Change (Ten Year Average) Total Population - New Hampshire Comparing October, 1985 and May, 1987 Projections 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00 2000-10 U.S. Census 21. 5". 24.8" Projections (Oct., 1985) 21.6* 14.3% 11.7%

Projections (May, 1987) 24.6" 25.5" 21.8" i

Assumptions  !

These projections are based on a number of assumptions. Among these are the general premises that no major var, civil strife or natural catastrophe vill occur during the projection period; also that there vill be adequate supplies of energy at a cost that vill allow the economy to function without major disruption. The fertility rates and survival rates are based on actual county births and deaths during the 1970 to 1980 period and are assumed to converge 1 with projected national rates by the year 2025. In the case of fertility 3

i rates, the Census Bureau's middle projection series for white females was used as a guide to future increase in population through births. Those fertility rates are casumed to remain fairly steady, increasing slightly from 1.78 births per woman in 1980 to 1.88 in 2000 and 1.90 in 2010. For mortality, resident death statistics for each county were used to establish individual county trands and these trends were made to conver3e to national projected-survival rates, again using the middle series for total population. Life expectancy for males is assumed to rise from 70.7 in 1981 to 73.3 in 2005, and for females from 78.3 years in 1981 to 81.3 in 2005.

With respect to migration, the model links employment-related migration to projected county employment, which is translated into target labor force, on a residence base. If the labor force projected in the absence of migration during a five year period is less than the target labor force, then in-m13 ration takes place to make up the difference.

hwline Population Projections The projections presented here are of resident population and do not include seasonal or transient persons. The projections should be viewed as baseline figures. That is, the attempt has been to prepare a set of future projections which reflect past and emerging trends; which are reasonable in the aggregate as well as at the local level; and which can be used by others as a point of departure for evaluating their own projections.

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Isi 05/20/87 TOTAL FOPULATION FOR NH MUNICIPALITIES 19:30 - 2010 POP OSP POP POP POP POP POP-

  • PCP TOWN 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 -

2010 BELKNAP COUNTY 42'884 46 143 52.404 58 992 64 896 71 091 76 005 ALTON 2.440 2.635 3.026 3 450 3.842 4 274 4.788 SARNSTEAD 2 292 2 773 3.721 4 863 5.964 7 171. 3 551 BELMONT 4.026 4.836 5:392 6 304 7 079 7 850 S.359 i CENTER HAREOR 808 931 994 1 126 1.245 1 373 1.522

GILFORD 4 841 5 183 6.236 6.948 7.433 7 822 4 151 GILMANTON  !.941 2 458 2 889 3 607 4 275 4.995 5 809 LACONIA 15 575 15.761 16 650 17t407 1?.140 10i*I9 19.!21 MEREDITH 4.e46 4 615 5 795 6 607 7 345 e.140 3 054 NEW HAMPTON 1 249 1 407 1.471 1 630 1 778 1 742 2.133

$ANB0RNTON 1 679 1 655 2 167 2.509 2.314 3 137 3.500 TILTON 3 387 3 689 4.063 4 541 4.981 5.458 6 012 l

l CARROLL COUNTY 27.929 29 541 34.408 39 676 44 54? 50.*51 57 8e!

AL3ANY 383 444 544 662 760 s57 BAFTLETT 929 1 566 1 381 1 723 1 350 1 933- 2 110 2 312 BROCXFIELO 385 409 531 655 773 913 1 107 CHATHAM 139 209 189 189

  • 190 190 171 CONWAY 7 158 7.762 8.836 10 188 11 430 12 359 EATON 14 323 25e 279 283 304 325 349 383 E.:FINGHAM 590 e68 713 803 899 1 003 FREEDOM  :.1 5 720 755 935 1 119 1 295 1 536 1 509 HARTS LOCATION 27 14 27 27 23 23 30 JACK 3ON 642 649 783 MAOISON 900 1.010 1 141 1 326 1 051 1 188 1 410 1.723 2.02o 2.398 2.333 MOULTONB0 ROUGH 2.206 2 438 3 106 3 823 4.460 5 146 6 011 OS3IPEE 2.465 2.592 3.002 3 441 3 853 SANOWICH 4 326 4.231 905 993 987 1 054 1 117 1 191 1 299 TAMWORTH 1.672 1 551 1.969 2 214 TUF70N80R0 2.445 2.721 3 114 1.500 1 527 1.974 2 346 2 675 3 041 3 513 WAKE:IELO 2 237 2 361 2 759 3 190 3 595 4 072 WOL.:EBOR0 3 968 J.745 4 321 4.e37 5 183 5 684 6 295 7 141 CHESHIRE COUNTY $2 116 65.400 72.667 80 562 38 701 S7 124 10ei404 ALSTEAD 1 461 1 519 1 777 2 013 2.251 2 494 2 755 CHESTE* FIELD 2 561 2 637 3.222 3 652 4 035 4 373 4.eis 2UBLIN 1.!03 1 476 1 596 1 826 2 070 2.!24 2 537 l
IT2 WILLIAM 1 705 1.943 2 210 2 528 2.356 3 126 3 571 GILSUM e52 866 724

-ARRISVILLE 781 s42 70?  ?!

860 1 088 1 040 1 139 1 354 1 537 1 750 HIN?OALE 3 631 3 638 4.331 4.943 5 524 c.117 e.7:2 JAF: REY 4 349 4 210 4.970 5 476 l e CO3 3 569 7 221 '

KEENE 21 449 22.441 24 147 2e.313 23.e37 31 22? 34 113 MAFL30R0 UGH 1 846 1 799 1 973 2 074 2 182 2 2?C 2.435 MARLOW 542 556 636 711 7s? 373 370 NELSON 442 510 549 630 RICHMONO 518 714 920 !ca 674 654 764 882 1 009 1 15 RINOGE 3.375 3.938 4 255 4 662 4.864 5 17o ROXBURY Si!aJ 190 201 225 250 275 321 32?

ST000AFD 482 498 747 971 1 215 i

3ULLIVAN .'. 4 7 5 1 753 585 695 7e4 901 1 040 1 181 1 331 SURFY 656 636 814 927 1 037 1 142 1 249 SWANZEY 5.183 5 564 6 271 7 075 7 877 8 683 9 539 TROY 2 131 2.127 2.486 2 765 3 058 3 374 3 736 WALPOLE 3 183 3 045 3 495 3 736 3.990 4 264 4 560 WESTMORELAND 1 452 1,544 1 714 1 927 2 162 2 412 2 693 WINCHESTER 3.J65 3 790 4 008 4.438 4 894  !.386 5 952 5

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TOTAL POPULATION FOR NH MUNICIPALITIES 1980~- 2010

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POP 0$P POP POP POP POP POP PO?

70WN 1980 1995 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 C00s COUNTY 35 014 34.597 !5 321 37 247 38 169 39.407 41 234.

BERLIN 13 084 12.649 12.7o0 13 2?6 CARROLL 13 449 13 320 14 534 647 722 741 320 988 c7 CLARKSVILLE 262 259 e 1 0e8 272 280 287 295 !34 COLEER00K 2.459 2.431 2 615 2.742 2 847 2.oe9 3 119 C0LUMBIA 673 680 724 767 0 ALTON 802 s43 193 672 735 738 743 747 DUMMER 390 370 422 449 752 '5?

ERROL 313 257 315 471 409 5!0 00RHAM 317 319 321  !!3 3 322 3 191 3 552 3 741 3.893 4 010 4 305 JEFFEFSON 803 767 83!

LANCASTER 856 67e 297 923 3 401 3 577 3 556 3.e77 3.777 3 899 4 012 MILAN 1 013 1 124 lile! 1 217 1.294 13s4' 14%

NORTHUMBERLAND 2 520 2.387 2.515 2 521 2 522 2.520.

P!TTSSUF.0 780 313 811 836 2 53-RAN00LPH 857 331 ;14 274 325 343 396 437 SHELBURNE 31'3 314 481 52; STARK 363 401 432 463 51T 470 489 525 552 583 STEWARTSTOWN 943 slo es 919 973 1 009 1 035 1 051 STRATFORD 999 913 930 1.Ci?

WHI7EFIELO 930 930 9?O !O 1 681 1.642 1 689 1.707 1 713- 1 732 1 747 GRAFTON COUNTY 65.206 68.747 76 946 34.441 92 222 100.952 111 !4e ALEXANDRIA 706 778 923 A3HLANO 1 064 1 223 1 387 1 600 1 307 1.92? 2 023 2 156 2 302 2 451 l

BATH 761 942 030 2.e42 BENTON 930 930 9!2 C!C 333 330 342 361 335 408 SETHLEHEM 1.734 1.721 2 317 435 BRIDGEWATER 2 698 3 120 3 545 4 0s4 606 687 932 1 125 1 313 1 488 BRISTOL 2 198 2.414 2 545 1 372 CAMPTON 0 765 3 009 3 259  ?.!!4 CANAAN li694 1 376 2 037 2 254 2.495 2 744 3 0:9 2 45e 2.436 3 020  !.J23 3.!72 4 327 4 3;s 00RCHESTER 244 294 348 EASTON 417 SC2 50 70' 124 141 127 120 134 ELLSWCRTH 53 137 14 41 69 79 9 '. 104 ENFIELO 3 175 3 309 121 FRANCONIA 4 092 4.713 5 40e 5 224  :.52; 743 731 343 ?ll 938 105 GRAFT 0N 739 805 1 1:4 GR0 TON 373 958 1 05J 1 153 1 2 ) .)

255 295 234 302 c HANOVER 9 11e 9 304 10 347 322 !42 I:i HAVERHILL 11.415 12.e30 13 701 14 iii 3.445 3 657 3 870 3 397 3 932 3.9e5 HEBRON 349 417 522 4 015 HOLDERNESS 1.586 639 7'3 *12 1 0i9 1 642 2 122 2.496 2 383 '3.303 LANDAFF 26e 275 292 299 3 7:5 LEBANON 322 345 391 11 134 11 412 13.071 14 277 15.601 te.943 LINCOLN 1.313 1.le3 1.305 12.t:7 LIS20N 1 338 1 379 1 420 1 49e 1 517 1 499 1.601 1 691 1 807 1.723 LITTLETON 5 553 5.669 5 10e 6 447 2 1:2 <

LYMAN 231 243 c.820 7 139 7.s37 '

LYME 297 293 301 309 323 1.239 1 590 1 590 1 730 1 789 2,200 N0NROE 619 643 711 2 477 OPANGE 768 932 397 912 IC7 211 275 327 387 ORF0R0 923 1.016 450  !!2 FIERMONT 1 073 1 172 1 275 1 331 1 517 i

l 507 533 526 538 551 PLYMOUTH 5.G94 5 113 Se5 532  !

RUMNEY 5 831 6.543 7 346 3 132 9 0:3 '

1 212 1.366 1 408 1.531 1 667 1 807 3UGAR HILL 397 513 476 1 984 THORNTON 502 520 531 534 952 1 003 1 329 1 575 1 352  :

WARREN 650 660 655 2 135 2 456 WATERVILLE VALLEY 660 665 e71 a30 180 139 238 I?O 333 i

W 527 3*4 485

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.W s O.R T. H 554 571

, . 56.2 539, :06 320

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U V 05/20/87 TOTAL POPULATION FOR NH MUNICIPALITIES 1980 - 2010 POP OSP 90P POP POP POP P0P POP TOWN 1960 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 ,

2010 HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY 276.608 3J4.426 347 017 392 504 431 054 473.297 500,130 AMHERST 8.243 S.590 8 832 9.997 10.902 10 037 14 14 ANTR:M 2 208 2.423 2.850 3.284 3.693 4.te3 4 635 BEOFORD 9.481 10 688 12.590 14.568 15.5c0 te.243 17.523 BENNINGTON 390 1 002 1 063 1 185 1 293 1 417 1 567 ER00KLINE li?66 1 943 2.408 2 974 3.235 3.79J 4 347 OEERING 1 041 1 092 1.e48 2 214 2 678 4 3 2?O 3.??6

. FRANCES 70UN 030 955 1 139 1.353 1.533 1 744 1 972 00FFSTOWN 11 315 13 025 14.971 17 283 17 3: 4 21 437 23 636 GREENFIELO 072 1 322 1 291 1 486 1 647 1,810 1 773 GREENVILLE 1 998 2 03S 2.399 2 687 2 943  ! 242 3 5'S HANC0CK 1 193 1 186 1 418 1 673 1.8e8 2.034 2 4:5 HIL'SEOROUGH

. 3 437 3 9?6 4 170 4 683 5.14 5.t76 5 305 HOLLIS 4 679 5 497 8 154 10i'87 12.596 14 161 15.704 HUDSON 14.02: 16 480 19.987 23.193 25 424 27 !30 29 055 LITCHFIELO 4 150 4.739 5.101 5 838 6 547 7 J50 3.e3?

LYNDE30 ROUGH 1.070 1.086 1.304 1 552 1 734 1.934 2.237 MANCHESTER 90.936 96 0 8 102 587 106 86e 111 770 117.454 120 50s.

MA30N 792 9e? 1 238 1 532 1 77: 2.01: 2 24e MERRIMACK 15.406 18.451 19.932 23.571 27 193 31.765 33 3 2 MILFORO 3 635 9 745 11.539 13 485 15:171 17 049 19 122 MONT VERN0N 1 444 1 611 2 181 2 589 2 376 3 121 3 34 NASHUA 67 865 74.784 89 228 103 743 11e.251 ;30 251 145.eC4 NEW BOSTON 1 9:3 2.192 2.734 3.276 3.7!2 4 202 4 737 NEU IPSWICH 2.433 3.024 3.350 3.951 4.447 4.970 5 519 PELHAM 8.090 8 478 9 564 10 414 10 659 10.739 11 397 PETERBOROUGH 4 895 4.976 5 766 6 753 7.567 8 449 9.550 SHARON 134 212 273 325 364 400 433 TEMPLE 602 816 999 1 208 1.383 1 571 1 770 WEARE 3:232 4.006 5.047 6 393 7.606 3.98 10.515 i WILTON 2.667 2.772 3.136 3 4e0 3.748 4.08! 4.476 WINOSCR 72 92 1:8 151 130 212 247 MERRIMACK COUNTY 98 302 105 731 121 424 137 2e5 153.e50 170 073 13i.27:

ALLENS70WN 4.398 4.773 6 370 7.790 9.068 10.742 12.?d:

AND0VER 1 537 1.771 1 889 2.113 2.I62 2.s35  : :7 505CAWEN 3.435 3 6el 4.372 5 002 5 66 ti!:S 7 07- I 30W 4 015 4 331 6 013 7 147 3 07; i . -i : ~ 2.44* l 5RACFORD 1 115 1 169 1.415 1.e45 1.904 0 100 ".545 CANTERBURY 1 410 1 648 1 943 2.!!6 2.759  !. CC  ?.71 CHICHE3TER 1 492 1 746 2.0C5 2 372 2 755 3 144 3 57?

CONCORO 30.400 31.890 32 851 34.473 3e.257 33,157 4C.302 OANEURf 680 726 752 804 362 9:5 1.CCY I OUNBARTON 1 174 1 307 1 5e8 1 35c  :.174 .507 2 . ? ; e. l ED30M 2 743 3 103 4.e39 5 969 7.277 3.4sJ 2. 00 FRANKLIN 7.901 7.890 8 499 6.927 7 37 7.193 10 4ci HENNIAER 3 246 3 311 4.185 4.795 5.452 s.127 e,iil HILL 736 744 902 1 031 1 177 1.3JO 1 547 H00KSETT 7 303 3.161 9.793 11 363 12 8e8 14 244 15.e:3 HOPKINTCN 3.861 4 360 5.035 5 857 c.706 7 5s0 8 507 LOUDON 2 454 3 185 3 489 4 202 4.922 5 61e e.344 NEWBURY 961 1 170 1 479 1 900 2 383 2 719 3 5s5 NEW LONDON 2.935 2 820 3 805 4 349 4.90! 5 441 6.c0e NORTHFIE.0 3.051 3 341 3.920 4 555 5 236 5 753 e.714 EMBROKE 4 861 5.390 5 896 6 654 7.476 3 357 8.4 3 PITT3FIELO 2 389 3 378 3 255 3 524 3 818 4 137 457 SALISBURY 731 816 1 006 1 170 1.346 1 531 1 747 3UTTON 1,001 1 026 1 3e8 1 578 1.512 2iO69 2 344 WARNER 1 963 1 938 2.438 2.793 3 185 3 610 4 12e WEB 3TER 1 095 1 241 1 639 2 026 2 423 2 808 3 213 WILMOT 725 835 896 1 031 1 180 1 347 1 55e 7

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05/20/87 TOTAL POPULATION A0R NH MUNICIPALITIES 1980 - 2010 POP OSP POP POP POP POP . FOP '

FGP TOWN 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 PCCKIN0 HAM COUNTY 190 345 214 510 263 147 309 381 351 419 397 365 442 753 ATKINSON 4 397 4.923 5 600 6.561 7 652 9.179 11 125 AUBURN 2.883 3 614 4 510 5.323 c 029 6 743 7 333 e BRENTWOOD 2.004 2 133 2.857 3 474 4 082 4 761 5.454 CANDIA g>999 3 648 4.459 5.452 6 333 7.408 3 39' CHESTER 4.006 2 220 2.868 3.450 4 002 4 613 5.213 OANVILLE 1 318 1 933 2.094 2 633 3 145 3 710 4.250 CEERFIELD 1 979 2 200  ! 141 3.985 4.320 5.779 6 745 DERRY 18.875 22.830 31 010 33.993 46 093 53 343 50 '04

' EAST KINGSTON 1 135 1.269 1 530 1 364 2 121 2.!?S 2 65f EPPING 3 460 4.107 4.704 5 609 6 533 7.665- 3 901 EXETER 11 024 12 040 14.577 17 078 19.571 22 541 25 7 ?

FREMONT 1 333 1 675 1 818 2 1:0 2 502 2 909 3.340

- 0FEENLAND 2.129 2 232 2 934 3.437 3 894 4 355 4.734 HAMPSTEAD 3 785 5.030 6.092 7 217 7.995 8 584 3.935

- HAMPTON 10.493 11 506 14.466 16 596 13 252 19.7:3 20.??0 HAMPTON FALLS 1 372 1 485 1 835 2.133 2 407 2,705 3.C01 kENSINGTON 1 322 1.376 1 855 2 203 2 525 2.!?7 3 214 KINGSTON 4 111 4 390 e.443 7 S32 9.106 10 308 11.I:3 LONDONDERRY 13 593 15.554 17.301 20 233 23 041 26.S25 !1 5J

- NEW CASTLE 936 879 1 027 1 170 1 310 1 471 1.o40

. NEWFIELOS 317 S48 1 036 1 135 1 330 1 500 1.:74 NEWINGTON 716 749 861 9o5 1 069 1 19? 1.!:'

NEWMARKET 4 290 5 583 6 371 7 167 7 983 9 0C0 10.*37 NEWTON 3 068 3 600 4.723 5 329 6 948 7.943 i.262 '

NORTH HAMPTON 3 425 3 670 4 533 5 141 Sie:9 6 393 6 473 NORTHWOOD 2.175 2.542 3 155 3.653 4 547 5 !6e 6.21o NOTTINGHAM 1 952 2.373 2.534 2.e93 2 8e7 3.036 3.!!i PLAISTOW 5 609 6 141 7 623 8 709 9.775 1C.739 11 564 l POR?SMOUTH 26,254 Osr+;51 30 632 34 610 38 531 43.258 43 3is '

RAYMOND 5 453 6,788 10.103 12 731 15 177 17 16o 18 355

- AfE 4.508 4 659 5.929 ei793 7 523 3.293 S.932 iALEM. 24 124 24.952 09.C74 !1.763 33 455 24 722 35 557 l SANDOWN 2.C57 2 801 2 551 2.o39 3.370 3.o e4 4 704 l SEABROOK 5 917 6 672 9 336 11 907 14 214 le.580 13.:41 i SOUTH HAMPTON 6e0 e51 869 1 011 1 149 1 311 1 477 i

'STRATHAM 2.507 3 113 4 122 5 133 5.972  :.827 7 52  !

WINCHAM 5 664 6 894 7.939 9 165- 10 51 12 374 14 7 9 i STRAFFORD COUNTY 35.408 91 297 101 860 113 19e 123 173 133.707 143 7::

BARRINGTON 4.404 5.710 6.062 6 455 6.$07 7.225 7.o17 COVER 22 377 23 517 25 838 23 348 30 5!4 32.352 35 443 i DURHAM 10.e52 11.980 12 562 13.457 '1J.536 15 487 13 21:

AARMINGTON 4 630 4 672 5 110 5.7C4 6.le3  :.o78 7 ;13 '

LEE 2 111 2.533 3 048  !.534 3 35e 4 121 4 31i MACBURY 987 1 045 1 296 1 496 1>:Si 1 3;S 1 220 MIDDLETON 734 726 924 1 121 1.270 1 410 1 140 MILTON 2 438 2 536 3 037 3 437 3 776 4 148 4 523 NEW DUFHAM 1 183 1.293 1 742 2 259 2 739 3 257 3 773 ROCHESTER 21 560 22 352 25 221 29 273 30.360 33.67: !e.J:9 ROLLINSFORO 2 319 2.483 2 7e8 3 067 3 319  !.593 3 3e?

SOMER$ WORTH 10:350 10 534 11 7e2 13.063 14 176 15.400 16 654 STRAFFORD 1.c63 2 01o 2 430 2 9e7 3 429 3.430 4.42 8

'I $ 1 t-05/20/87 TOTAL POPULATION FOR NH MUNICIPALITIES 1980 - 2010 POP OSP POP POP POP FOP PCP FOP TOUN 1980 1985 1900 1995 2000 2005 2010 SULLIVAN COUNTY 36.063 37 608 11 599 46 697 51 649 56 935 63 30s ACWORTH 590 625 651 709 765 826 903 CHARLE3 TOWN 4.417 4.605 5.517 6 604 7 610 8.621 9 757 CLAREMONT 14.557 14.414 15 142 16.022 16.2e3 17.767 14 178 CORNISH 1 390 1 458 1 637 - 1 868 2 092 2 333 2 525 CROYDON 457 477 531 e01 668 742 333.

GOSHEN 549 607 662 7o9 374 986 1 122 GRANTHAM 704 1 001 1.220 1.515 1 828 2 185 2.s4C LANGDON 437 396 497 554 -609 639 742 LENPSTER 637 e50 846 1 043 1.241 1 454 1 710 NEUPORT 6.229 6 478 6 833 7 391 7.931 3.513 9 227 PLAINFIELD 1 749 1 892 2 151 2 530 2 900 3 297  ?.779 SPRINGFIELO 532 696 787 903 1.019 1 14? 1 310 SUNAPEE 2 312 2 463 3 025 3 714 4 397 5.133 e.02.

UNITY 1 092 1 36e 1 564 1 811 2.057 2.317 2.e20 UASHINGTON 411 480 53e c63 795 945  :.133 ,

NEW HAMPSHIRE 920 475 998 000 1 147 293 1 299.9c1 1 439.481 1 59C.147 1 75! C27 l

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05/20/87 HOUSEHOLOS FOR NH MUNICIPALITIE3 1980 --2010 HHSLOS HHSLOS HHSLOS- -HHSLOS HHSLO?- HHSLOS HHSLOS TOWN 1980 1985 1s90 1995 2000- 'Z005 2010 BELKNAP COUNTY '15 557 17.401 20 339 23 401 26. 90 29 e45- -32 9 ALTON 935 1 054 1 248 -1 459 1 365 1'i 398 2

2 .~ !

BARNSTEA0 732 988 1.367 1 832 2 302 2 336  !.4 SELMONI 1 429 1 791 2 060 2 470 2 340 3 227  !.a CENTER HAREOR 292 351 337 449 508 574-  :

GILFORO 1 745 1 951 2.421 2 765 3 031 3 262 34 GILMANTON e93 917 1 112 lb423 1.723 .Ge9 24 LACONIA 5 626- 5 895 6.380 e.779 7 167 7 606 :30 MEREDITH 1.739 1 801 2.333 2 725 3 101 .3 522~  !.4*

NEW HAMPTON 453 532 -573 .651 727 114 SANBCRNTON 589 680 819 973 1 117 1 276 14 T!LTON 1.274 1 444 1 639. 1 875 2 102 0 357 2.:

CARROLL COUNTY- 11 084 12 062 14 558 17 191. 19.796 22.390  ::.:

ALBANY 155 185 235 294 I4s 401 -

BARTLETT . 673 611- 790 870 951 1 047 1..

4 ER00KFIELO 139 153 205 250 314 311 C CHATHAM 71 81 76 78 90 33 CCNWAY 2 69? 3 231 3.813 4 506 5 1?? 5 9?- ~.!

EATON 107 120 126 139 153 163 .

3 EFFINGHAM 231 266- 294 342  !?C' 447 5 FREEDOM 300 325 417 511 607 726  :

HARTS LOCATION 12 6 13 . 13 14 15 2ACKSON 272 234 355 418 482 559 -

MADISON 405 472 531 728 800 1 068 1.!

MOULTONB0 ROUGH 863 982 1 298' 1 638- li?61 2 324 2.-

OSSIPEE 912 983 1 175 1 374 1 572 1,8:0 Oct SAN 0WICH 381 431 445 487 529 520  :

TAMWORTH 648 619 815 939 1.0e5 1 217 14 TUFTONBORO 602 631 846 1 031 1.208 1 400 1.:

WAKEFIELO 856 930 1 126 1 334 1 543 1 795- 2.1 WOLFE30R0 1 5e4 1 752 1 948 2 230 2 512 2 351 3.:

CHE3 HIRE COUNTY 21.83e 23 733 27 112 30 602 34 0:2 ?7 500 41 5 ALSTEA0 502 545 652 750 847 946 10 HEITERFIELO 916 973 1 217  : 402 ' . 564 1 710 15 CUELIN 422 491 559 657 734 !56 FITZWILLIAM 6ed 743 363 1 00 1.'43

.  !.2c1 ..a

'0:LSUM 200 301 253 23: 30'  !!4  !

HARRI5VILLE 302 397 392 453 5:3 507  :

MINSDALE 1 326 1 369 1 e38 1.937 2 1'33 2 4??  :-

JAFF2EY 1 630 1 35e 2 007 2.~ 2 4 3 2 42: 2 74: ?C A:ENE 7.303 3 24; 7.;;! ;C.123 .1 135  ;;.24 ;2..*

M-FLEOROUGH e53 661 743 79? 34 ii5 MARLOW 139 200 234 26e 213  ?!2  ?

NELSGN '66 195 219 254 290 300  ?

RICHMOND 139 253 25 290 I;3 4:2  ;

RIN00E 948 1 170 1 318 1i479 1.i33 1 653 1,'

RUX8URY 65 71 81 92 10 :1? -

ST000ARD 203 216 330 433 554 o7; i SULLIVAN 115 226 255 305 35e 403 -

SsRRY 014 214 280 324 !ae 407 .

$WANZEY 1 337 2.033 2 346 2 690 3 003 3 363  ?.-

TROY 736 757 906 1 023 1 143 1 272 1.;

WALPOLE 1 134 1 166 1 370 1 487 1 603  ;.72$ 1.-

WESTMORELAND 415 461 529 610 e92 73; i WINCHESTER 1.::: 1 384 1 499 1 637 1 373 2 035 2.'

11

3 V V 05'23/37 HOUSEHOLOS FOR NH MUNICIPALITIE3 1980 - 2310 HHSLOS FHSLOS HHSLOS HHOLo$ HHtLO$ MH5LO? Hm3LOi -'

TOWN 1930 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20;;

C003 COUNTY 12 912 13 213 14 162 -15 10e 15 8:3 16 65; 17.e-BEFLIN 5.041- 5 041 5 275 5 614 T.601 6 075 c.4 CARROLL 247 236 304 346 384 427. 4

. CLARKSVILLE $4 86 94 100 105- 1:0 .

C]LEBR00K 92S 953 1 064 1 14s  !.219 1 297 1. '

COLUMBIA 211 221 244 266 234 305  :

CALT0N 243 276 264 273 2??- 289  :

OUMMER 123 125 147 161 173 137  :

ERR 0L 115 96 125 130 133 137 '

00RHAM 1:236 1 25? 1 460 1 579 1 635' 1 800  ;.

JEF:ER$0N 290 277 312 329 3J4 359 3 LANCASTER 1 215 134 1 3o2 1 443 1 515 1 529  :.:

MILAN 358 427 4;S 476 513 Ses  :

NORTHUMBERLAND 897 383 9e5 794 1 017 1 04:  :: ,

DITTSEURG 285 310 319 338 355 37 3' RAN00LPH 109 134 147 175 148 222  :

SHELEURNE 112 115 133 157- 173 191 2 3TARK 166 130 197 217 234 , 254  :

STEWARTSTOWN 236 231 304 317 323 336 3 STRATFORD 323 310 346 356 366 374 3 WHITEFIELO 6:0 625 665 687 704 721 GRAFTON COUNTY 22 900 25 771 29.930 33 863  !?.C53 42 491 ' ' -

ALEXANDRIA 248 201 354 419 492 572 i' ASHLAND 673 766 824 902 965 1.074 1. i BATH 265 312 354 364 372 382  ?'

BENTON 63 75 32 90 97 105 ..

EETHLEHEM 669 633 951 1 139- 1.346 1 5e7 1. ;i BRIDGEWATER 236 285 396 491 563 680 7

3RI57CL 7C9 935 1 014 1 132 1 260 1.34i . E-CAMPTON 647 '63 850 965 1.C03 1 23:  :..

CANAAN 84o 394 1 140 1 320 1.*!?  : 759  : . :. '

ECRCHESTER 88 -114 137 170 202- 251  ?

=ASTON 55 66 62 65 o9 72 ELL 3 WORTH 26 21 3e 43 51 '9 E'FIELO j 1 102 1 024 1 552 1 243 2.;50 2 490 2.i esANCONIA 302 319 331 424 472 *:0

~

GRAFTON 25m 203 331 373 420 471 0% TON 74 116 114 125 133 143 5I FANOVER 2 203 2 665 3 033 3.*e5 .4.Ce2 4 555 5.  :'

HAVEEHILL 1.250 1 417 1 543 1.592 1 637 1 64:1  :.7: '

HEBRON 129 lod 212 265 37 !i: .:

HOLDEENEC: *81 e41 350 1 003 1 217 1 4:5 ..-

LANDAFF 100 110 116 106 130 153 LEEANON 4.4*9 4 369 5 7:9 o.426 7 13; 7 f:0 i.;:

LINCOLN 512 435 556 535 61 65;  :

LISBON 546 575 629 63 746 S;* 4:

LITTLETON 2 143 2 329 2 57S 2 794 3 023 3.:-3  :.5:

LYMAN 99 91 111 113 122 1;g , .

LYME 500 657 674 775 136 1.C05  ;.1 MONRCE 227 251 235 313  !!C 336 4 03ANGE 69 79 106 129 153 13: '.

ORFORO 344 400 437 48:3 543 60:  :

PIERMCNT 19 215 213 229 240 25  : I PLYMOUTH 1 417 1 578 1 937 2i268 2.e2C 3.004  !.4-RUMNEY 427 512 543 606 675 750 i SU0AR HILL 152 209 200 217 229 240 THORNTON 337 379 513 3;5 752 3g3 1, 1

WARREN 249 270 275 234 293 30!  !

WATERVILLE VALLEY WENTWORTH 79 193 219 65 114 138 168 204  :

222 235 246 Zo1  ;-

W0003 0CV. 408 421 472 501 531 5e: 5 l

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V(%. U 05/20/$7 HOUSEHOLOS FOR NH MUNICIPALITIE3 1980 - 2010 HHSLOS HHSLOS HHSLOS HHSLOS HHSLOS HHSLOS- HH?LOi TOLN 1980 1995 1990 1995 IOCO 2005 2010 HILL 5 BOROUGH COUNTY 95.767 109 570 130 600 152 650 '172 077 -193 567 217.!!

AMHERST 2 445 2 658 2 861 3 356 3.766 ~4.'275 51-.

AN7 RIM 683 780 969 1 166  :.3J6 1.552 1 7c BEDFORO .788 3 349 4.063 4.876 5 349 '5 719 5 3:

BENNINGTON 322 335 420 485 544 61d 6:

BROCKLINE 561 644 835 1 068  :.25 . 1 441 . 1~

DEERING 369 406 645 902 1 13 1.353 17:

FRANCESTOWN 305 367 457 562 655 7so i 00FFSTOWN 3 206 3 963 4.807 5 784 c.c 4 7.523 14 GREEN:IELO 326 463 476- So9 647 723 i-GREENVILLE 686 734 904 1 049 1 12  :.!!7 1,5 HANC0CK 453 470 569 719 12e 143 ....

HILLSBOROUGH 1 290 1 560 1.709 1 950 2 247 -2 546 .

HOLLIS 1 467 1 301 2.796 3 434 4 60's Si 3;E 3. ; . .

HU0 SON 4 219 5 176 6 577 7.912 3.023 9 360 10. ' , ,

LITCHFIELO 1 282 1 523 1 722 2.042 2 357 0 755  ! . .T LYNDEBOROUGH 346 366 461 567 653 74' i.

MANCHESTER 34.314 37.712 40 106 45 373 43 671 52 3?4 54  ?~

MASON 267 339 455 584 645 4:3 4:

MERRIMACK 4 381 5.476 6 192 7.563 9 010 10 873 17.?~

MILFORD 3 146 3 684 4 570 5 540 6 412 7 396' .i:

MONT VERNON 454 528 750 923 1 055 1 17'  ::

NA3HUA 24.475 29.143 35 179 42 41e 43.215 5x.234 :4..i NEW EOSTON 612 726 ?49 1 179 1 321 1 604 1-NEW IPSWICH 77; 1.000 1 159 1 417 1 642 1 3S4 ..-

FELHAM 2 335 2.553 3 015 3 401 3 55! 3.707 4.  :

PETER 90 ROUGH 1 840 1 951 2 370 2.892 3 317 3 30 45 SHARON 69 83 112 138 159 179 1~,

7EMPLE 238 293 375 470 554 e46 7 WEARE 1 104 1 429 1 885 2.475 3 031  ! 676 4.4:

WILTON S94 968 1 147 1.311 1 460 1 632 1. !:

WINO 30R 7 36 48 64 79 75 1:

MERRIMACK COUNTr 34 5:3 !9.046 46.260 53 323 61.736  :?.:04 'i. :'

2 43: 3 06*  !.753

~

ALLENSTOWN 1 531 1 758 4.4:0 f.

ANOGVER 556 654 723 435 753 1 08:  :.;:

E0$CAWEN 1 04: 1 161 1 444 1 707 1 9i! 2. i?  ::

30W 1 243 1 419 2 0!9 2 500 2,71' 3 255 I.5' 3RA3F0F0 417 463 570 e95 $22 :75 ' . '. i f CA1TEFEURY 4e5 575 703 372 1 353 1:Si  :.4t' CHICHESTER SC3 6:3 741 905 1 :30  :. :!  !..e; CONCORD 11 434 12.534 13 31? 14 333 15.!!5  ::.4S:  ;~ ~.'

DANBURY 243 '275 I94 325 153 37! J')

OLNEARTON 396 Js6 579 703 351  :.C0e ..'.

EPSOM 757 1 148 1.790 2 339 I.000  !.511 4 1.'

AANKLIN 2 956 3 003 3 351  !.e27  !.:15 4.  :' 40 HENNIKER 93: 1 037 1 377 1 637 1 1' : 2 215 5' HILL 252 270 330 399 4:3 547  :-

n00KSETT 2 403 0.529 3.!30 4 236 4.931 55:4 .;;

H0PKINTON 1 323 1 587 1 8?7 2 277 2 672  !.09s 3 5:

LOUO0N 799 1 093 1 246 1 551 1.Sei 2. it 25 NEWBURY 365 470 615 815 1 351 1.! 0 1.: ,

NEW LONDON 1 008 1 025 1 449 1 717  :.439 2 259 25' NORTHFIELO 1 028 1 191 1 44o 1.735 2.049 2 32! 27 FENBROKE 1 717 2 014 2 2?1 2 657 3 063  !.515 4C PITT3FIELO 1 008 1 246 1 243 1 389 1 546 1 717 15 SALISEURf 260 2S8 367 441 51 307 7 3UTTON 410 407 563 670 790 0:5 1.C WARNER 697 72s 948 1 121 1 31? 1 503 WEBSTER 3e6 43S 601 7e5 944 1 120 1.I WILMOT 073 333 371 439 5;7 604 7 I

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n fm e NY 05/20/87 HOUSEHOLOS FOR NH MUNICIPALITIEi 1930 - 2010 HHSLOS HHSLO$ HHSLOS HHSLOS HH3LO$ . HHSLO3 HH?LDI T0WN 1980 I?S5 1990 1995 2000 2005 2210 ROCKINGHAM COUNTY 66 471 77.6:9 99.269 100 628 141 501 165 236 118 5-ATKINSON 1 394 1 61! 1 917 2 321 0.797 3 458 4. r

  • UBURN 929 1.208 1 569 1 915 0 241 2 572'  :.?:

EFENTWOOD 547 61J 337 1 038 1 242 1 451 1. ' .

CANDIA 949 1 201 1.529 1 932 2 335 2 405  ?.:~

CHESTER 6:5 716 964 1 196 1 429 1 700 1.

CANVILLE 429 653 736 957 1 131 1 441 1.-

CEERFIELO 636 733 1 091 1 430 1 736 2.~13 2.-

DERRY 6 685 3 385 11 369 15 420 13 307  : .502  !! :

EAST KINGSTCN 366 424 550 670 738 921 10 ERPING 1 158 1 404 1.e97 2 046 2 5CS 3 03?  !.:

EXETER 4 215 4.7so 6 004 7.252. 8 567 10 133 11.

FDEMONT 453 589 665 Sie 975 1 171 1.!

OREENLAND 711 770 1 057 1 230 1 495 1 722 1+2 HAMPSTEAD 1 287 1 773- 2 237 2.737  !.130 3.47e  !.-

HAMPTON 4 118 4 675 6 125 T.251 326 9 13S 10.:

HAMPTON FALLS 466 523 672 808 942 l '. 3 9 s 1.:

FENSINGTON 437 472 663 314 363 1 135 1. !

AIh0iTON 1 426 1 759 2.413  !.051 3 642 4 262 4. i '

LON00NCEFRY 4.403 5 223 6 230 7 337  ?.614 10.!66 12,'*

NEW CASTLE 333 334 409 486 565 $60 NEWFIELOS 276 298 37? 447 513 60J -

NEWINGTON 252 272 324 371 400 430

  • NEWMARKET 1.757 2.372 2 316 3 272 3. s4 4 383 5.w NEW7ON 1,015 1 035 1 637 2 152 2 61 3 132  ?.:.

NORTH HAMPTON 1 217 1 351 1 737 2 035 2 301 2.572 2.i NORTHWOOD 786 952 1.231 1 554 1 395 2.!!2 2."

NOTTINGHAM 649 819 910 1 001 1 100 1 223 1.:

PLAI370W 1 7c7 2.040 2 63? 3 145 3.s11 4 101 45:

PORTSMOVTH 9.493 10 054 12.067 14 102 16 251 13 910 21 1 RAYM0NO 1 90! 2 456 3.309 5 033 6 109 7 141 7.:

RYE 1.737 1 940 2.4s5 2 413 3 338 3 7*9 4. '

iALEM S 167 8.756 10 623 11 939 13. *J 41 13 931 14.7' SAN 00WN 715 1 009 957 1 130 1.350 1 642 20.

3EmER00K 2 413 2 801 4 111 5 41$ e.63! 3 062 7.!

SCOTH HAMPTON 213 22: 310 372 437 515 5 iTRATHAM 31' 1 044 1 441 1 854 2.236 0 63'  ::

LINCHAM 1 63! 2 121 2 551 3.00s 3 53; 4.!!! 52 STRAFFORD COUNTY 03 356 22 697 33 015 43.J06 43.~0! 5!.573 5:...

BARRINGTON 1 502 2 052 2.251 2 45J 2 64? 2 371 07 00VER 3 307 9 03 10 500 11 305 12.c93 14.!70 15.;

DURHAM 2.072 2 665 3 137 3 516 3 736 4 04 42

ARMINGTON 1 579 1 680 1 920 2 129  :.323 2.so3 2. ;

LEE 751 949 1 175 1 4C0 1 5s4 1.?i 1 MACBURY 34C 37C JSs 574 352 73:  :

MICOLETON 247 257 339 420 467 554 i MIL TCN 305 886 1 096 1 270 1 4:5 1 607 1' NEW OURHAM J23 486 673 905 1 113 1 3e 1.:

RCCHESTER 7.703 3 434 9.S43 11 304 12 622 14 110 15.s ROLLINSFORD 776 873 1 009 1 144 1. 37 1 40! 15

$0MER 3'JOR TH 3 790 4 0e6 4 6&9 5 334 5 921 3 520 '7, STRAFFORO 555 714 388 1 110 1 313 1 542 1.*

14

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%d 05/20/97 FOUSEHOLOS FOR HH MUNICIPALITIE3 19$0 - 2010 MHSLOS HHSLOS- HHSLOS- HHSLO$ HHtLOi HH3LC$

HP!L2S TOWN .1960 1935 1990 1995 ;000 2005 2012 SULLIVAN COUNTY 13 274 14 177 16 218 18 6?4 21 172 23 393 2".1 ACWORTH 217 237 256 286 317 351 CHARLESTOWN 1 577 1 690 2 098 2 584 3.053 3.546 '4 1 CLAREMONT 5.639 5.736 6 242 6 79,5 2 7. !2'3 7.911 95 00RNISH 436 524 609 71 322 939 12 CR0YOON 171 183 211 246 280 319  !

00$ HEN 197 223 253 302 351 406 4 GRANTHAM 263 385 486 621 7e9 942 1..

LAN000N 148 138 179 205 2!1 2t] 2 LEMPsTER 191 199 269 344 421 SC8 -

NEWP0RT 2.251 2.403 2.s24 2 918 3 207 3 527  !.:

FLAINFIELO 597 662 781 945 1 111 1 2'5 1 5-SPRINGFIEL3 199 263 314 371 429 4*e 5' 3UNAPEE 991 964 1 228 1 550 1.S$2 2 252 2.e UNITY 290 365 436 522 e10 7C3  :

WA3HINGTON 167 200 231 294 3e2- 441 5

'~;

NEW HAMP3HIFE 323.310 365 3C0 436 533 509 3:5 573 674 e55 287 I

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APPENDII 1 PROJEC1* ION MEITODOLOGY From a starting point of July 1, 1980, projections of future demographic and economic conditions in New Hampshire have been made at five-year intervals' through the year 2010' Demographic variables include such items as population, births, deaths, migration, households, labor force, and so on, while economic projections include employment, earnings and personal income.

The demographic projections are presented by sax and five-year age group (0-4 years of age, 5-9, 10-14, ..., 80-84, and 85 years of age or older), while the economic projections are presented by major industry groups (essentially one-digit SIC sectors).

The projection model consists of six components: 1) demographic model; 2) economic model; 3) labor market model; 4) migration =odel; 5) household model; and 6) community allocation =odel. Counties serve as the basic level for which projections are prepared, using the first five components listed above.

Then, those totals are disaggregated to individual commualties utilizing the sixth submodel; and, finally, state totals are computed as the sums of the ,

county projections.

Baseline Conditions The first step in the projection process involves establishing baseline conditions, utilizing census data from April 1,1980. More recent information was used, where available, to ensure the reasonableness of trends from the baseline year and the resulting projection series.

Model Calibration The second step in the projecticn process considers the estimation of various model parameters, calibrating the models to reflect existing local conditions i and recent trends. With regard to demographic data, information covering the years 1970 through 1980 is considered in the calibration process. For the j economic models, time-series data frem 1969 through 1981 are employed.  !

Calibration of the community allocation codel involves longitudinal analysis i of the population growth of all communities in the state over the period 1930-

1980, 1

National Projections '

The county projection models are related to selected national projections. It is assu=ed that changes in certain county variables, over ti=e, are related to i

comparable changes in national trends. The following national projections which serve as exogenous variables to the county projection =odels are employed 1) annual fertility rates by age of mother, through 2010; 2) five-year survival rates by age and sex, through 2010; 3) labor force participation rates by age and sex, through 1990; 4) household headship rates by type of household and by age and sex cf householder, through 1995; and 5) employment and earnings by industry, through 2010. The projections of fertility rates, survival rates, and household headship rates have been drawn from the following publications:

16

13 O O k/ I U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Pooulation Reports, Series P-25, No. 922, "Projections of the Population of the United States: 1982 to 2050," October, 1982.

U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reoorts, Series P-25, No. 805, "Projections of the Number of Households and Families:

1979 to 1995," May, 1979.

The projections of labor force participation rates were obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Special Labor Force Report No. 197 Finally, the economic projections have been adapted from the following document:

Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1980 OBERS BEA Regional Proiections, Economic Activity in the United States, by State, Economic Area, SMSA and State Portions of the Areas.

Historical and Projected 1969-2030, July, 1981.

In a number of cases, interpolation of the available projections was required to obtain information for certain intermediate years, while extrapolation was also needed to extend some projections to the desired year. Additional computations and changes in format were also required.

Projection Model Description Following these preliminary steps, the model proceeds through sequential application of the six sub=odels for each county and each five-year projection period.

Each submodel draws upon input data which have been organized according to geographic detail: national data; state data; county data; and co=munity data. The subcodels also utilize relevant model parameters and national projections, which have been previously calculated. Each submodel then generates the final projections and intermediate results to be used by the other subcodels. The general information flow of the projection process is su=marized in Figure 1, illustrating each of the six subcodels, along with the corresponding inputs, outputs, and parameters.

Demographic Model The demograohic model generates projections of population and components of population change (births, deaths, and migration) by sex and five-year age group. No race detail is provided, as there are few non-white persons residing in the state. The model differentiates between the local, indigenous population and a nu=ber of special populations, such as persons in group quarters, off-base military personnel, and =ilitary dependents. The cohort-compone t =ethod is used to project local births, deaths, and surviving popu) .;n . County-specific fertility rates by age of mother and survival rates by age and sex are projected to follow future trends in the corresponding national rates. Special populations are determined on a separate framework, as functions of the local population and levels of military employment. Migration in two broad age categories is considered:

employment-related migration (0-64 years of age) and retirement migration (65 years of age or older). Retirement migration, which is assumed to be independent of job opportunities, is projected on the basis of historical trends in age- and sex-specific migration rates. Finally, the total population before employment-related migration is computed by summing the local population, special populations, and retirement migration.

17

Labor Market Model o o .-

In the labor market model, projected labor force participation rates by age and sex are applied to the premigration non-institutional population (from the demographic =odel) to yield projections of total labor force. The county-specific labor force participation rates are projected to follow trends in the corresponding national rates. Military employment by place-of-residence is subtracted from both the total labor force and total employment by place-of-residence, to yield civilian labor force and civilian employment, respectively. Comparing the premigration civilian labor force and civilian employment (from the economic model) yields a premigration unemployment rate, or the prospective unemployment rate which would result if no migratio.i took place. A target labor force is then set which drives the postmigration unemployment rate to a constant level of 5.0 percent, approximately the average unemployment rate for the study area over the period 1980-1985.

Subtracting the premigration civilian labor force from this target labor force then gives the desired change in labor force which must occur as a result of employ =ent-related migration.

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O O Figure 1 Ce:megraehic/Icenc=ic Prcjection Model Projecions of U. S. employment and estnings:

Projecions of coun / ferdlirt and survivalrater hinovic:seterns of U. L and counr/ employment

and astnings. l N"*9 # 8 cost m.graten =ccutacon E80"O dC Model . Model 4

Lacor

  • ores cciovemnt av stace<feescence

\

\4 Laboe Force Mode l :rciections of c:unty !aact !ce:s partici:stion rar historic pattems cf unematoyment i

D8n95 in 14CCr force teClov f'irrftd eleted l m.Sratien Y Migration Model histcric trencs of c:unty in and-out migtsticn I

DCfteyaCCn sCCulatjCM Househosd :rciect:an of::unty nescsn:c estes

-- Model l

i Ittal DCCuieten AN ".Cble*Clo SCCbtetCn Y

Communrty l Allocation histor*c tv:s in c:mmunity :cCuistion l

,mg grown retative to county;ccutation grown

- pre migration inter 3ction

- Post migr2 tion interaction exogenous incurs are iraticized 19

Migrrtion Modal O O - -

The actual level of employment-related migration, both in the aggregate and by age and sex, is determined in the migration model. Applying both the projected labor force participation rates described above and historical migration rates by age and sex to the surviving local population yields an unadjusted change in civilian labor force. This unadjusted change is comp'ared to the desired change and the migration rates are adjusted accordingly, retaining the original distribution of migrants by age and sex, so that the resulting level of migration indeed give.. the appropriate change in labor force. Total population is then computed by summing the premigration population and the employment-related migration. In addition, the components of personal income which depend on population (transfer payments and dividends, interest, and rent payments) are adjusted to reflect the total postmigration population, also computing revised projections of per capita income.

Household Model In the household model, the projected population in group quarters is subtracted from the total postmigration population to yield the population in households. County-specific household headship rates, that is, the probability that a person of a given age and sex would be the head of a household of a given type, are projected to follow trends in the corresponding national rates. Two types of households are considered: family households and non-family households. Applying the household headship rates to the household population by age and sex results in projections of the number of family households, the nu=ber of non-family households, and the total number of households, by age and sex of householder.

A household includes all the persons who occupy a house, an apartment or group of rooms, or a single room which constitutes a housing unit under the 1980 Census rules. A person living alone or a group of five or fewer persons sharing the same housing unit as partners is counted as a household. The number of households is, by definition, the same as the number of occupied housing units.

One person in each household is designated as the "householder." That person is the individual in whose name the house is owned or rented. '41 thin households, persons who are family members are distinguished from those who are not family members. A family is defined as a group of two or more persons residing together who are related by birth, marriage or adoption; all such persons are considered as members of one family even though they may include a "subfamily," that is, a married couple or a parent-child group related to, but not including, the householder and sharing the living quarters of the householder. A family household =ay include among its members the householder, and all household members who are related to the householder. A "secondary family" includes no members related to the householder. Members of secondary families may include such persons as lodgers or resident employees and their relatives living in a household.

Persons who are not family members (that is, are not livin3 with any relatives) include "unrelated individuals" and inmates of institutions. An unrelated individual who is a householder is classified as a "non-family householder," that is, a householder with no relatives in the household. An unrelated individual who is not a householder is a "secondary individual,"

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that is, a roomer, hotel guest, etc., with no relatives in the household.

Community Allocation Model Finally, in the com= unity allocation model, county-level projections derived in the first five submodels are disaggregated to the individual component' communities. Household population is allocated to the com= unities using a' two-step procedure. First, two models of historical population growth were constructed for each co = unity. Second, the two growth models are averaged as described below.

Population Growth Rate Over Time One model considers coeulation as a logistic function of time, yielding an "S"-shaped trajectory of population growth over time. The growth path begins with a fairly modest rate of increase; this growth rate increases slowly until a threshold density is reached, at which time the growth rate increases more rapidly. As the community begins to fill up, sn inflection point is reached and the growth rate slows, with the resulting population approaching a saturation level asymptotically.

Pooulation Growth Rate Over Density The second model considers the coculation growth rate as a function o' '

population densitv, with the integral of the growth rate again following a logistic curve. In this formulation, the path of population growth versus density appears as an inverted "U"-shaped curve. Again, at low densities, the growth rase is fairly low; as a critical = ass is reached, the growth increases rapidly, vith the rate of increase of the growth rate slowing, falling more rapidly as the ce= unity approaches the saturation population. While the first formulation assumes =enotonic population growth, the second is more l flexible, as population may actually decline after reaching a maximum level.

Note that the density measure is based on only currently developed or developable land, rather than total land area, excluding water areas,  ;

publicly-owned lands, and lands determined to be unsuitable for development (as defined by the New Hampshire Office of State Planning).

These models have been estimated for each of the 234 co= unities in the state,

, based on historical population growth from 1930 through 1980, with somewhat more weight being placed on growth in the last decade. Since individual equations have been developed for each community, a unique saturation population, or ceiling population, is associated with each co= unity, rather than aggregating groups of communities on some basis and obtaining saturation levels only for various classes of communities. Note also that these ceiling l levels are based on historical growth patterns, rather than simply en l theoretical grounds. l Time is used as the independent variable in one of the above models, as a j surrogate or proxy variable for a variety of other indicators, such as travel time to employment opportunities, tax rates, availability of municipal water and sewer services, and so on. The historical effects of these variables are implicitly considered in the estimation of the growth equations. Rather than l attempting to predict such variables in the future, the historical trends will I be extrapolated over the orojection period implicitiv. .

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L bv Of course, the actual population levels reached in the future will be affected by :ening restrictions, timed growth ordinances, and the availability of public services among other things. Thus, the initial projections may have to be adjusted, to satisfy any such constraints on development, reallocating population to other communities, where necessary.

Averaging the Two Growth Models Extending each of these two growth models into the future, for each five-year projection period, yields a projected growth rate for each interval. The initial unadjusted growth rate for each community is computed as the geometric mean of the growth rates implied by the two different =odels described above.

That is, the resulting growth rate is the square root of the product of the growth rates resulting from models using time and density. resoectivelv.

Applying this preliminary projected growth rate to the community household population in the previous period yields an unadjusted projected household population. Since the population of each community is initially projected independently of all other com= unities, there is no guarantee that the sum of the individual co= unity projections will equal the county household population developed earlier. Therefore, the second step of the allocation process involves adjusting these initial projections, so that the adjusted populations indeed sus to the county total. This adjustment is based on the distribution of the absolute value of population change over all co = unities within a county. Thus, if the initial projections imply community projections which sum to less than the county total, then the population of each of the com= unities is adjusted upwards, based on each community's share of the sum of the absolute values of the nu=erical change in population. Likewise, if the initial projections imply coc= unity projections which sum to greater than the county total, then the co= unity projections are adjusted downward. Noto, too, that the growth rate after these adjustments have been made must also fall within the pre-specified range determined above. Therefore, the adjustment step is an iterative process and involves some reallocation of the change in population to other communities. l l

l Population in group quarters at the community level is based simply on the distribution of the 1980 county population in 3roup quarters. Adding population in households and population in group quarters yields total co= unity population. Finally, the number of households by co= unity is determined from the total number of households at the county level and each I co= unity's relative population per household. I Once the coc= unity projections have been obtained, the projection model proceeds to the next five-year period, until all projection periods have been considered. The model then returns to the first projection period and considers the next county. This iterative process continues until projections I have been 3enerated for all counties and communities, for each five-year period from 1980 through 2010. '

22

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Housing Change ,

1970-85 Town Total Housang STM Housing MLT flousing MOB Housing

me 1970 1980 1985 Change 1970 1980 1985 Change 1970 1980 1985 Change 1970 1980 1985 Change

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\

\ restwee.$ 381 582 673 76.6 l 323 482 558 12.8 l 34 32 33 -2.9 l 24 68 82 241.7 l East Kingston 250 370 426 70.4 l 228 315 365 60.1 l 7 6 6 -14.3 l 15 49 55 266.7 l Emeter 3081 4401 4922 59.8 l 1700 2428 2729 60.5 l 1025 1170 1313 28.1 l 356 803 880 147.2 l Greenlan.3 528 733 842 59.5 l 455 640 707 55.4 l 71 90 132 85.9 l 2 3 3 50.0 l nampten 2716 4444 5258 93.6 l 2086 2814 3307 58.5 l 618 1533 1n29 196.0 l 12 97 122 916.7 l Gampton ra!!s 382 483 572 49.7 l 336 429 514 53.0 l 41 48 48 17.1 l 5 6 to 100.0 l Reemangton 334 450 532 59.3 l 283 407 482 10.3 l 19 17 17 -10.5 l 32. 26 33 1.1 l 1 Eangston 1120 1483 A770 58.0 l 967 1195 1446 49.5 l 107 169 189 76.6 l 46 119 135 193.5 l cow Castle 323 352 357 10.5 l 275 310 312 13.5 l 48 40 43 -10.4 l 0 2 2 193.5 l Cewte n 596 1947 1147 92.4 l 4s6 836 931 9t.6 3 68 169 173 154.4 l 42 42 43 2.4 l Wettb Hampton 1031 R252 1448 46.4 l 802 993 1087 35.5 l 105 130 133 162.3 l 124 129 228 83.9 l Fortsmanth 8275 9872 10634 28.5 l 4093 6610 6783 65.7 l 4087 3066 3650 -10.7 l 95 196 201 111.6 l mye 1455 1867 2024 39.1 l 1188 1544 1705 83.5  ! 206 263 263 27.7 l 61 56 56 -8.2.l Seabeook 995 2520 2861 187.5 l 707 1866 1223 ' 73.7  ! 118 814 824 26.7 l 170 440 80? 375.9 l South Hampton 169 221 247 46.2 l 156 205 23a 48.1 l 11 14 14 27.3 l 2 2 2 0.0 l Strathan 457 843 1055 130.9 l 373 722 902 111.8 l 43 91 123 186.0 l 41 30 30 -26.8 l Asea Total 22324 14200 35084 57.2 l 14658 21355 23548

~

40.6 l 6638 7693 8840 33.2 l 102s- 2172 2h9% 3).2 l 3

changham

( N ounty 44562' 69410 82772 85.8 30850 49383 57200 85.4 19701 14835 19456 8 't .1 3Cta. , 5192 6116 1833.1 3

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ANNUAL BUILD! @ PEPM11$

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 7014ts prentwood 0 9 11 17 29 25 24 115 fest Kingston T 6 12 8 12 T3 118 Emeter 120 37 35 111 141 197 144 785 Greenland 14 13 9 23 23 41 63 186 Naspton 151 65 111 160 153 345 949 190)

Nanpton Tetts 3 13 4 17 22 33 92 ington 6 8 5 18 13 33 to 134 on 27 42 54 48 71 72 60 3 74 astle 1 0 1 1 3 0 3 9 NM k tds 2 2 4 3 11 16 38 Newton 14 9 16 16 26 33 20 134 worth Nanpton 10 10 26 82 27 51 206 Portsecuth 56 44 18 44 276 360 482 1300 aye 14 35 15 43 29 35 23 194 s.cabrook 41 49 62 67 T4 89 77 459 South haspton 3 4 2 3 to 7 3 32 Ctrathans 40 35 52 60 0 65 156 408 Totcts 509 381 457 701 920 1480 2041 6489 Sourcer: Office of State Piannino, NN.

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-6 CONDOMiNILMS 1981 1982  ??el 1984 1985 1986 TOTAL BRE TWOOD EAST KINGSTCN EXETER 84 20 12 22 32 103 2 73 GREENLAND N 'rN 48 78 71 142 261 163 763 N iALLS KENSINGTON KINGSTON NEu C.*STLE NEWFIELDS NEUTON C3RT% MAMPTON 28 28 PORTSMOUTM 48 35 63 306 320 772 NVE 22 22 SEA 8R00K 42 42 50Uf2 NACTON STRJ.TMAM 6 6 12 117 200 341 TOTALS 132 174 124 239 744 828 2241 5  : Attorney Generai's O*fice, NN

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EXHIBIT 2.5 6

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