ML20148J083

Applicants Rebuttal Testimony 5 (Rebuttal to Testimony of a Ceder & Ae Luloff Re Panic.)* Witness:Ds Mileti.Curriculum Vitae of Bd Spencer & Certificate of Svc Encl

ML20148J083
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Site:	Seabrook
Issue date:	01/22/1988
From:	PUBLIC SERVICE CO. OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
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ML20148H865	List: ML20148H859 ML20148J040 ML20148J057 ML20148J083
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OL, NUDOCS 8801270359
Download: ML20148J083 (13)

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Dated: January 22, 1988 UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION before the ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD

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In the Matter of )

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PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY ) Docket Nos. 50-443-OL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE, ET AL. ) 50-444-OL

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(Seabrook Station, Units 1 ) (Offsite Emergency and 2) ) Planning Issues)

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APPLICANTS' REBUTTAL TESTIMONY NO. 5 (Rebuttal to the Testimony of Dr. Avishai Ceder and Dr. Albert E. Luloff Regarding Panic)

Witness: Dennis S. Mileti It is a widespread myth that panic occurs in mass emergencies. Members of the public do not panic in emergencies of the type considered in this hearing; that is, emergencies that involve community or neighborhood. However, it is true that most people believe that panic occurs in all sorts of emergency. This myth is perpetuated by, for example, Hollywood movies that have "panic" in their scripts.

Hollywood and most people, however, are simply wrong. Panic in mass emergencies is a characteristic of science fiction and not scientific fact.

Those scholars who were pioneers in the research of

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emergencies and disasters began their work expecting to discover public panic; they were surprised at not finding panic in the disasters which they investigated. These researchers, for example, include Robert Kutak, "The Sociology of Crisis; Lewisville Flood of 1937," Social Forces 17: 66-72, 1938; Enrico Quarantelli, "The Nature and Conditions of Panic", American Journal of Socioloav 60: 26-27, 1954; Charles Fritz and Eli Marks, "The NORC Studies of Human Behavior and Disaster," Journal of Social Issues X(3):

26-41, 1954; William Form and Sigmund Nosow, Community in Disaster. New York: Harper, 1958 and Samuel Prince, who in 1920 completed his doctoral dissertation, "Catastrophe and Social Change, Based Upon a Sociological Study of the Halifax Disaster", at Columbia University on a human-made disaster.

Subsequent investigations of more contemporary emergencies and disasters have provided additional evidence on panic. Enrico Quarantelli has performed an elaborate analysis of panic. His now classic work on the topic was published as "The Nature and Conditions of Panic", American Journal of Socioloav 60: 267-275, 1954 and "The Behavior of Panic Participants" Socioloov and Human Research 41: 187-194, 1957. In 1964 he wrote a chapter titled "The Behavior of Panic Participants," pages 69-81 in D. P. Schultz (Ed.),

Panic Behavior, New York: Random House, in which he offers several conclusions about panic. The panic participant: (1)

"acts in a nonsocial manner in his flight behavior" (page 2

78), (2) "perceives a specific threat to physical survival" (page 73), (3) "is future-threat rather than post-danger orientated" (page 74), (4) "is nonrational in his flight l behavior" (page 76), (5) is relatively aware of his activities" (page 75), and (6) is acutely self-conscious and fearful" (page 75). In addition, in 1975, Dent s Mileti, Thomas Drabek and J. Eugene Haas wrote a monograph titled Human Systems in Extreme Environment. Boulder, Colorado:

Institute of Behavioral Science. That text (page 58) attempted to define the conditions or determinants of panic in emergencies, concluding that three conditions were critical for panic to occur: (1) a person perceives that a specific threat to his "physical survival" is imminent and, as a result of this situational perception, that person becomes fearful of his physical survival; (2) there are.

escape routes that, if traversed, are perceived as being able to offer "safety"; and (3) those escape routes are seen to be blocked or closing off such that they cannot be traversed.

The determinants of panic need not result in panic.

History provides examples of when these conditions have existed, but panic did not occur; for example, these conditions have prevailed on sinking ships, yet stories by survivors indicate panic did not occur. However, these i

determinants must exist for panic to arise. These determinants would not exist in an evacuation from the areas around a nuclear power plant such as Seabrook, because people 3

L_____. _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ . . _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ _ . . . _ _ _ _ . _ _ _ . _ _. ____._.__._______ ___________________ _ ____._____ _

4 would be leaving an open geographic area (rather than, for l example a closed building) and their escape would not be blocked. The protypical case in which the determinants (sufficient but not necessary) of panic occur is, for example, a major fire in a crowded theater or nightclub.

These conditions do not prevail as potential characteristics in a vehicle evacuation. As a widely-cited study of evacuation prepared by Joseph Hans and Thomas Sells for the Environmental Protection Agency summed it up (see Joseph Hans and Thomas Sells. 1974. Evacuation Risk an Evaluation Washington, D.C.: Environmental Protection Agency, pages 43, 45, and 54): (1) many studies in the United States and in other countries of public reaction in emergencies have essentially dispelled the myth of panic, (2) the idea that people panic in emergencies and disasters is widespread; however, it is not borne out in reality; and (3) neither panic tior hysteria has been observed during evacuations.

An additional point about panic is worth making. Even people who over-perceive the risk or hazard present in an emergency, and who evacuate unnecessarily as a result, act in quite controlled and adaptive ways that are rationally consistent with their situational perceptions of risk. The notion that overreaction is not panic, hysteria, or aberrant behavior is borne out by studies of how people respond in actual emergencies. For example, Dennis Mileti, Donald Hartsough and Patti Madson wrote a report entitled The Three 4

a Mile Island Incident; A Study of Behavioral Indicators of Human Stress in 1982. In this work they examined the frequency of automobile accident rates before, during, and after the Three Mile Island accident. They concluded that there was not evidence to suggest that accidents increased during the evacuation despite the fact automobile travel in the area was likely up because of evacuation. If the 141,500 "overresponders" at TMI were panic-stricken, hysterical or the like, surely traffic accidents during evacuation would have shown some decisive increase. In fact, the rate of traffic accidents were for all practical purposes the same as if no emergency were occurring. Additionally, the research of Drs. Johnson and Zeigler on evacuation of The Three Mile Island Accident concludes that the evacuation was characterized by a calm and orderly movement of people rather than hysterical flight.

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L 00CKETED CURRICULUM VITAE USNRC BRUCE DAVID SPENCER llB JAN 26 N1:46 Citizenship: United States SociahjMd.hd,Qf4-1097 BRANCH

, Office Address: flome:

Department of Statistics 1323 Lake Street Northwestern University Evanston, IL 60201 2006 Sheridan Road' (312) 869-8328 Evanston, Illinois 60201 (312) 491-5810 and NORC University of Chicago 1155 East 60th Street Chicago, Illinois 60637' (312) 702-9851 EDUCATION Ph.D. Yale University,1979, Statistics M.S. Florida State University,1974, Statistics B .S. Cornell University,1973, Diometry PROFESSIONAL EXPERIENCE 1980 - present Assistant to Associate Professor of Statistics and Education, Northwestern University 1985 - present Director of Methodology Research Center, NORC, University of Chicago 1984 Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of Statistics and Center for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University 1982 - 1985 Sampling Statistician, NORC, University of Chicago 1978 - 1980 Senior Staff Officer and Study Director, Committee on National Statistics, National Academy of Sciences I

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PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITIES Consulting National Academy of Sciences U.S. Burtau of the Census U.S. General Accounting Office U.S. Department of Education Private businesses, law firms, and school districts Awards Palmer O. Johnson Memorial Award from the American Educati0nal Research Association in 1985 Associate Editor -

Journal of Educational Statistics Memberships in Professional Organizations American Educational Research Association American Statistical Association Institute of Mathematical Statistics Royal Statistical Society Population Association of America PUBLICATIONS Books Bl Benefit-Cost Analysis of Data Used to Allocate Funds. New York:

Springer-Verlag,1980 (based on my 1979 Yale doctoral dissertation, Benefit-Cost Analysis of Data Used to Allocate Funds: General Revenue Sharing).

B2 Estimating Population and income of Small Areas, Panel on Small-Area

! Estimates of Population and Income, Committee. on National Statistics, National Research Council, Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press,

'l; 1980.

i This book includes the Panel's report and nine papers with attributed authorship. As Study Director for the Panel, I was largely responsible l for drafting the report. I also wrote seven papers in the book, which

. are listed below (with page references).

i

! "Models for error in posteensal population estimates." (pp. 217-228) 6 I

"A note on the use of postcensal population estimates in employment and

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,! unemployment measures." (pp. 215-216)

Posteensal per capita income estimation methods of the Census Bureau:

Summary." (pp. 188-193) 1 I

l i

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-"Revenue sharing allocations and the effects of data errors."(pp. 205-214)

"Effects of biases in census estimates on evaluation of posteensal estimates." (pp. 232-236)

"Postcensal population estimation methods of the U.S. Bureau of the Census." (pp. 131-187)

"The role of judgement in posteensal estimation."(pp. 194-199) l Articles Al "Sufficiency, minimal sufficiency, and the lack thereof." The American Statistician 30(1): 34-35,1976 (with A. Sampson).

A2 "Implications of equity and accuracy for undercount adjustment: A decision-theoretic approach." Pp. 204-216 in U.S. Bureau of the Census.,

Conference on Census Undercount: Proceedings of the 1980 Conference.

Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce,1980.

A3 "Issues of accuracy and equity in adjusting for census undercount."

Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, Washington, D.C.,1981.

A4 "On estimating population and income for local areas." Statistical Reporter, 81-8: 377-381,1981 (with E. Kitagawa).

A5 "The sense and nonsense of school effectiveness." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management f(1) 1981: 43-52,1981 (with D. Wiley).

A6 "Small-area analysis." Pp. 607-614 in J.A. Ross, editor, International Encyclopedia of Population. New York- The Free Press,1982 (with R.

Lapham).

A7 "A note on statistical defensibility." The American Statistician.

36(3): 208-209 (with comments 209-216), 1982.

A8 "Feasibility of benefit-cost analysis of data programs." Evaluation Review, 6(3): 649-672, 1982.

A9 "Concerning dubious estimates of the effects of census undercount adjustment of federal aid to cities." Urban Affairs Quarterly,18(1):

145-148, 1982.

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. A10 "Technical issues in allocation formula design." Public Administration Review, 42(6): 524-529, 1982.

All ' Feasibility of benefit-cost analysis of public data." Proceedings of the American Sta.'.stical Association. Social Statistics Section.

Washington, D.C.,1982.

l A12 "Distribution of federal benefits according to statistical formulas:

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y discussion of paper.' Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section. Washington, D.C.,1982.

A13 "On interpreting test secres as social indicators: statistical considerations." Journal of Educational Measurement 20(4): 317-334, 1983.

A14 "Test scores as social statistics: comparing distributions." Journal of Educational Statistics, 8(4): 249-270, 1983.

AIS "Toward conducting ' benefit-cost analyses of data programs." Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, pp. 46-51,1984.

A16

• Simplifying complex samples with the bootstrap." Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Survey Research Section pp. 46-51, 1984.

A17 "Uncertain population forecasting", Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80: 306-314, 1985 (with J. Alho).

A18 "Avoiding bias in estimates of the effect of data error on allocations of public funds, Evaluation Review, 9: 511-518, 1985.

Al9 ' Optimal data quality", Journal of the American Statistical Association.

80: 564-573, 1985.

A20 "Statistical aspects of equitable apportionment," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 80: 815-822.

A21

• Test score decline: what and how well does it measure? Proceedings of the American Statistical Association, Social Statistics Section, pp. 57-64, 1985.

A22 "Conceptual issues in measuring improvement in population estimates,"

pp. 393-407 in Second Annual Research Conference. Washington, D.C.:

U.S. Bureau of the Census,1986.

A23 'Toward conducting benefit-cost analyses of data programs." Pp. 38-59 in

. R. W. Pearson and R. F. Doruch (eds.) Survey Research Designs: Towards a Better Understanding of Their Costs and Benefits. New York:

- Springer-Verlag. g Technical Reports "Needed data quality for an ambiguous decision problem." Discus ica Paper

1. 40, Center for Economic Policy Research, Stanford University,1984 (with

L.E. Moses).

4 "Efficient methods for sampling out-of-school seventeen-year-olds in the National Assessment of Educational Progress." Discussion paper #86-3, i Methodology Research Center, NORC,1986.

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! 5 May 1987

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f 4 4 DOCKETED UWP.C 18 JM 26 N146 Dated: January 22, 1988 FFICE Ci MU HA f E[SkTb[OFAMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION before the ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD

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In the Matter of )

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PUBLIC SERVICE COMPANY OF ) Docket Nos. 50-443-OL NEW RAMPSHIRE, et al. ) 50-444-OL

) Off-site Emergency (Seabrook Station, Units 1 and 2) ) Pla'aning Issues

)

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CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I, George H. Lewald, one of the attorneys for the Applicants herein, hereby certify that on January 22, 1988, I made service of the following documents:

1. Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 2 (Rebuttal to the Corrected Testimony of Dr. Avishai Ceder and Dr. Albert E. Luloff on SAPL 31 and TOH III Regarding Drivers Following the Advice of Traffic Guides) ;

2. Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 3 (Rebuttal to the Testimony of Zeigler, Johnson and Cole Regarding the SDA Telephone Survey Conducted for the commonwealth of Massachusetts) ;

3. Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 4 (Rebuttal to the Corrected Testimony of Dr. Albert E. Luloff Regarding the Beach Blanket Survey conducted for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts);

4. Applicants' Rebuttal Testimony No. 5 (Rebuttal to the Testimony of Dr. Avishai Ceder and Dr.

Albert E. Lulof f Regarding Panic) ; and

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5. Curriculum Vitea of Bruce David Spencer by depositing copies thereof with Federal Express, prepaid, for delivery to (or, where indicated, by depositing in the United States mail, first class postage paid, addressed to):

Administrative Judge Ivan W. Smith Robert Carrig4, Chairman Chairman, Atomic Safety and Board of Selectmen Licensing Board Panel Town Office U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Atlantic Avenue Commission North Hampton, NH 03862 East West Towers Building 4350 East West Highway Bethesda, MD 20814 Judge Gustave A. Linenberger Diane Curran, Esquire Atomic Safety and Licensing Andrea C. Ferster, Esquire Board Panel Harmon & Weiss U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Suite 430 Commission 2001 S Street, N.W.

East West Towers Building Washington, DC 20009 4350 East West Highway Bethesda, MD 20814 Dr. Jerry Harbour Stephen E. Merrill Atomic Safety and Licensing Attorney General Board Panel George Dana Bisbee U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Assistant Attorney General Commission Office of the Attorney General East West Towers Building 25 Capitol Street 4350 East West Highway Concord, NH 03301-6397 Bethesda, MD 20814 Atomic Safety and Licensing Sherwin E. Turk, Esquire Board Panel Office of General Counsel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory U.S. Nuclear Regulatory East West Towers Building Commission 4350 East West Highway 15th Floor Bethesda, MD 20814 11555 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD 20852

• Atomic Safety and Licensing Robert A. Backus, Esquire Appeal Board Panel 116 Lowell Street U.S. Nuclear Regulatory P. O. Box 516 Commission Manchester, NH 03105 Washington, DC 20555 m W

6 Philip Ahrens, Esquire Mr. J. P. Nadeau Assistant Attorney General Selectmen's Office Department of the Attorney 10 Central Road General Rye, NH 03870 Augusta, ME 04333 Paul McEachern, Esquire Carol S. Sneider, Esquire Assistant Attorney General Matthew T. Brock, Esquire Department of the Attorney Shaines & McEachern 25 Maplewood Avenue General One Ashburton Place, 19th Fir.

P.O. Box 360 Portsmouth, NH 03801 Boston, MA 02108 Mr. Calvin A. Canney Mrs. Sandra Gavutis Chairman, Board of Selectmen City Manager-RFD 1 - Box 1154 City Hall Route 107 126 Daniel Street Kensington, NH 03827 Portsmouth, NH 03801

• Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Mr. Angie Machiros U.S. Senate Chairman of the Board of Washington, DC 20510 Selectmen Town of Newbury (Attn: Tom Burack) Newbury, MA 01950

• Senator Gordon J. Humphrey Mr. Peter J. Matthews One Eagle Square, Suite 507 Mayor Concord, NH 03301 City Hall Herb Boynton) Newburyport, MA 01950 (Attn:

Mr. Thomas F. Powers, III Mr. William S. Lord Town Manager Board of Selectmen Town of Exeter Town Hall - Friend Street Amesbury, MA 01913 10 Front Street Exeter, NH 03833 H. Joseph Flynn, Esquire Brentwood Board of Selectmen office of General Counsel RFD Dalton Road Federal Emergency Management Brentwood, NH 03833 Agency 500 C Street, S.W.

Washington, DC 20472 Gary W. Holmes, Esquire Richard A. Hampe, Esquire Holmes & Ells Hampe and McNicholas 47 Winnacunnet Road 35 Pleasant Street 03841 Concord, NH 03301 Hampton, NH

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i Judith H. Mirrer, Esquire Mr. Ed Thomas Silverglate, Gertner, Baker, FEMA, Region I

-442 John W. McCormack Post Fine, Good & Mizner Office and Court House 88 Broad Street Post Office Square Boston, MA 02110 Boston, MA 02109 Charles P. Graham, Esquire McKay, Murphy and Graham 100 Main Street Amesbury, MA 01913

.. cy N George H. Lewald

(*= Ordinary U.S. First Class Mail)

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