ML20137Q700

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Abstract of Eastern Us Seismic Hazard Research
ML20137Q700
Person / Time
Issue date: 01/30/1986
From: Beratan L, Murphy A
NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES)
To:
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ML20137Q693 List:
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FOIA-85-784 NUDOCS 8602060378
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/ "l Eastern United States Seismic Hazard Research A.J. Murphy & L.L. Beratan .

Earth Sciences Branch Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Abstract The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) supports a very productive research program that addresses the issue of seismic hazards to nuclear power plants (NPP's). Estimation of these hazards is a very significant factor in siting of NPP's and in evaluating the safety of existing plants. There is considerable uncertainty in estimating the seismic hazard particularly in the Eastern United States. The objectives of the NRC seismotectonic research program are to quantify and reduce the uncertainty in seismic hazard assessment anc to develop methods of dealing with uncertainties.

Three of the principal contributors to the uncertainty in quantifying the seistu hazard at a site are: 1) the characteristics of the seismic source and zone, 2) the propagation of seismic energy between the source and the si'.?,

3) the si, response, including soil response. The relative levels of contribution of these three to uncertainty are region dependent. (F -

programmatic ease, the Eastern United States have been divided "*.o four regions: Nortr#ast, Southeast, New Madrid / Anna, Ohio, and Nemaha Ridge.)

Currently, there is a reasonable level of confidence in a working hypothesis for the source of seismicity in the New Madrid area and a moderate understanding _of tne regional prr egation characteristics. There are a number of hypotheses for the source of Southeastern seismicity including the Charleston, South Carolina, area. No generally accepted hypotheses are available for the Nort*aast or the Nemaha Ridge. There is a low level of kncwledge about the propagation and site response characteristics in the East eu pt as noted for the New Madrid region.

The progra s concerning the quantification and reduction of uncertainty in seismic hazard u 7essmert due to these three contributors are grouped into the regional program 7nd-the topical program. The regional program consists of the operating of seismograchic networks and geophysical / geologic investigations of The key areas, i.e., thc :.allection and interpretation of a basic data set.

topical program consists of studies related to generic issues rather than source zone problems, such as the frequency dependence of the propagation.

A brief description of these two programs will compose the first third of this presentation.

The program related to dealing with the uncertainty generally involves

- prcbabilistic analysis of existing data sets. The principal projects in the program has been the " Seismic Hazard Characterization of the Eastern United States" conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The seismic hazard curves calculated were based upon expert opinion generated in the areas of seismicity and source zones and of seismic strong ground motion. Prelimi-nary results f rom this study will be prt ented and discussed.

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