ML20132B684
| ML20132B684 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Humboldt Bay |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1985 |
| From: | PACIFIC GAS & ELECTRIC CO. |
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| References | |
| NUDOCS 8507250021 | |
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{{#Wiki_filter:, k MEMORANDUM REPORT j a FLOOD HYDROLOGY m _2 FOR THE =- DECOMMISSIONING l OF ) . HUMBOLDT BAY POWER PLANT UNIT NO.3 - i Civil Engineering Department Pacific Gas and Electric Company , San Francisco, California I June 1988 - SBR 7 iM SS8h3 P l i
MEMORANDUM REPORT FLOOD HYDROLOGY HUMBOLDT BAY POWER PLANT UNIT NO. 3 CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA JUNE 1985
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TABLE OF CONTENTS i SECTION DESCRIPTION PAGE , m 1 INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 Purpose and Scope
1 1.2 Authorization 1 1.3 Methods of Investigation 1 i 1.4 Location of Powerplant 2 2 DESCRIPTIVE HYDROLOGY 4 2.1 Watershed Characteristics 4 , 2.2 Climate 5 i 2.3 Flood Characteristics 7 - 2.4 Upstream Regulation 7
'M 3 HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS 10 }
3.1 Rainfall-Runoff Study 10 - l 3.2 Precipitation 10 3.3 Precipitation Losses 11 3.4 Unit Hydrograph 11 4 PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD (PMF) 13 ! 4.1 General 13 ; 4.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation 13 _ 4.3 Unit Hydrograph 17 [ 4.4 Loss Rates 19 $ 5
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TAE<LE OF CONTENTS (continued) SECT 1ON DESCRIPTION PAGE ._ 4.5 Flood Hydrograph Computation 22 4.6 Flood Elevations 22 5 WIND AND WAVE ACTION 25 i 5,1 General 25 5.2 PMP Wind 25 5.3 Windstorm 26 5.4 Tornado 26 5.5 Tropical Storms 27 5.6 Effective Fetch 27 5.7 Wave Analysis 2 17 6 PLANTSITE DRAINAGE 29 6.1 General 29
- 6.2 Peak Flows 29 6.3 Plant Yard Flooding 29 7 TSUNAMI 31 7.1 General 31 .
7.2 Wiegel Report 31 l 7.3 F'robable Highest Tsunami 32 I 7.4 100 - and 500 -Year Tsunami 35 REFERENCES 37
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LIST OF TABLES i NUMBER DESCRIPTION PAGE 1 Normal Annual Precipitation 6 i and Temperatures 1 L 2 Annual Maximum Peak 8 Discharges 3 Annual Highest Tide Level 9
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4 Total Orographic - Restricted 16 Convergence PMP 5 Depth Duration Table 17 Thunderstorm PMP Estimate 6 Unit Hydrograph Characteristics 21 7 Probable Maximum Flood Peaks 24 i 8 Estimates of Wave Runup 28 9 Plantsite Drainage 30 PMF Peak Flows and Runoff Volume R
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1 I a i P k M LIST OF FIGURES N A 4
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5 i 1 Watershed Map Humbaldt Bay h g 2 Mean Annual Precipitation a 3 Flood Hydrograph Reconstitution j December 21-23, 1955 Jacoby Creek near Freshwater J
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7 4 Orographic PMP Inden 3 - 5 Convergence PMP Index m
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6 October PMF Hydrograph 3 Humboldt Bay at Powerplant i
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- O December PMF Hydrograph _d Humboldt Bay at Powerplant ] _
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9 Jan.-Feb. PMF Hydrograph 9 Humboldt Bay at Powerplant [ 22 S 10 March PMF Hydrograph Humboldt Bay at Powerplant 7 - T
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11 April PMF Hydrograph j ' Humboldt Bay at Powerplant l -b t
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l 12 Effective Fetch Map = Humboldt Bay at Powerplant ~9
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LIST OF FIGURES (continued) NUMBER SUBJECT 13 Floodplain Map October PMF 14 Floodplain Map Thunderstorm PMP 15 Largest Tsunami Arriving Oftshore of Eureka 16 100- and 500 year Tsunamt Elevations Latitude 40 30' to 41* 00' f l
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MEMORANDUM REPORT FLOOD HYDROLOGY HUMBOLDT BAY POWERPLANT 1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Purpose and Scope
- This memorandum report was prepared to assemble the various hydrologic data and information necessary for evaluation of the structural and functional adequacy of any structure on the plant site containing radioactive material (i . e.
spent fuel pool, storage pits, tanks, etc). It presents basic hydrologic data concerning the powerplant located near the shores of Humboldt Bay: describes (a) the deri vation of the probable maximum flood, (b) the determination of the flood levels, and (c) maximum wind and wave data, (d) plantsite drainage, and (e) various tsunami 1 - levels at the bay near the plantsite.
1.2 Authorization
The hydrologic analysis and subsequent preparation of this report was initiated upon the request from Mr. J. C. Carroll of the Nuclear Plant Operations dated March 1, 1985. The request addressed to Mr. R. V. Bettinger, was for Mr. C. B. ' Cecilio of the Civil Engineering Department to assist in responding to several questions asked by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ~ ' (NRC). These questions deal with hydrologic issues pertaining to the decommissioning of Unit 3 at the Humboldt Bay Power Plant. This report responds to one of the NRC questions. 1.3 Methods of Investination: Estimation of hypothetical ^
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i floods such as the probable maximum flood (PMF) requires the determination of the hydrologic response (losses, base flow, routing and runoff model) of the watershed to intense raint'all, verification based on histdrical storm and runoff data (flood hydrograph ,
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analysis), the most severe precipitati on reasonabl y possibl e (PMP), 4 minimum losses, base flow, channel and reservoir routing. The
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hydrologic r'esponse characteristics of the basin to precipitation, 2 - such as the unit hydrograph, is determined and verified from 3 historical floods using the computer simulation program HEC-1 % developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1). The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is derived in accordance with the - criteria from U.S. National Weather Servi ce ( f ormerl y U. S. Weather - Bureau) Hydrometeorological Report Nos. 36 and 49 (2,3). 5 , A Wind generated waves and runup are calculated using a computer 5 program developed by Noble Software Incorporated called WRUP(4). This program develops the wave runup using the procedure from the R U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Shore Protection Manual (5). n - Evaluation of tsunami levels was based on three sources of 3 m documents, references 15-17. [ t a d 5 1.4 Loca_ tion of Powerplant: The Humboldt Bay Power Plant is h located in Humboldt County, California, approximatel y 4 miles southwest of the city of Eureka. The site consists of approximately 143 acres located on the mainland shore of Humboldt Bay, 1.5 miles I
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opposite the Bay entrance (See Figure 1). The plant is located on the Buhne Point, 3 miles south and >
.I 2 1/2 miles west of Eureka between the Northwestern Pacific 5
Railroad tracks and the north shoreline of Buhne Point. i;
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2 DESCRIPTIVE HYDROLOGY 2.1 watershed Characterictics: Four major creeks drain into Humboldt Bay, these are Salmon Creek, Elk River, Freshwater Creek and Jacoby Creek. Several smaller tributaries also drain into the bay. Figure 1 shows the drainages of these creeks. Salmon Creek drains a total area of 28.30 square miles. It rises in 'the central part of T.3N., R.1E., Humboldt base and meridian. It flows north uf west 9 miles, then somewhat west of north about 4 miles to the western part of T.4N., R.1W., where it enters the south end of Humboldt Bay. The lower course of the creek is marshy. Elk River drains an area of 51.3 square miles. It rises in the l central part of T.3N., R.1E; flows northwestward and discharges l into Humboldt Bay near the town of Elk River. The river has a length of 12 miles with North and South Forks as principal tributaries. Freshwater Creek drains an area of 61.73 square miles. It rises in the north-central part of T.4N., R.2E; flows in general somewhat south of west 5 miles, then northwestward into Humboldt , Bay. The creek has a length of 13 miles. Jacoby Creek drains an area of 16.40 square miles. It rises in the northern part of T.4N., R.2E; flows northwestward to the 1 northern part of T.5N., R.lE., where it enters Humboldt Bay. The 1 creek has a length of about 8 miles. i a Other small tributaries in the watershed that drain into the bay are called sloughs. 3 1
2.2 Climate
The climate of the basin, characteristic of most - e of California, is divided into a wet and a dry season. Most of the j rainfall occurs from storms during the wet season which extends from b November through March. During this period 75% of the average '
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annual precipitation falls on the basin. The dry season extends _ from May through September and only 10% of the average annual 1_ precipitation is contributed during this period. The rest of the g annual precipitation is contributed during the transitional months ! of October and April. _ R The mean annual precipitation in the plant site is 36 inches. In the basin contributing runoff to the bay, the mean annual
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I precipitation is shown in Figure 2. The normal and monthly ---
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precipitation data at Eureka WSO as published by the National 6 Climatic Center (6) are shown in Table 1. l 5 m l
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Temperatures in the plant site, according to the Environmental - 4= Report (7), has a minimal diurnal and seasonal range. It averaces
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( 52 degrees (F) annually, 46 degrees (F) in winter and 56 degrees (F) -]
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in the summer. Table 1 shows average temperatures at the EureI:a WSO q i gage as reported by tht? National Climatic Center. - 4 4 l
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5 _5 TABLE 1 -- NORMAL ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES 3 AT - EUREKA WSO (No. 04-2910) LATITUDE 40* 48'N LONGITUDE 124 10'W ELEVATION 43 FEET (NGVD) ;; i MONTH $ PRECIPITATION (In) TEMPERATURE (oF) Es h JAN 7.42 47.3 FEB 5.15 48,4 - MAR 4.83 49,3 APR 2.95 - 49.7 MAY 2.11 52.5 : JUN O.66 55.2 . JUL 0,14 56.3 : AUG O.27 57.O , SEP O.65 56.6 OCT 3.23 ; 54.4 I NOV 5.77 51.7 DEC 5.58 48.6 In ANNUAL M 39.76 52,7 -
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q i 2.3 Flood Characteristics: The known large floods in the study area have all occurred during the winter months. These floods occur as 7 a combination of rainfloods and high tides. The rainfloods have sharp high peaks and are usually of short w duration and comparatively small volume. a Because of the relatively ; low elevation of the area, snowfall and snowmelt are not - g considerations for flooding in the area. -. n Table 2 shows annual instantaneous peak flows measured at two j stream gages in the basin for rainfloods. 3 Tidal flooding occurs at the northern part of the plant site where the area is mostly marsh lands. No tidal flooding has ever l been observed at the Humboldt Bay Power Plant site itself. Table 3 - shows highest tide observed annually in Humboldt Bay as adjusted to
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l the plant site vicinity. l l 2.4 Upstream Reculation: There are no known reservoirs within the watershed under study or above the powerplant site. E s 3 f N i Ni
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E A _= TABLE 2 _ ANNUAL MAXIMUM PEAK DISCHARGES = M 11-4797 ELK RIVER i 11-4800 J ACOBY C. REEK NEAR FALK NEAR FRESHWATER WATER 2 YEAR DATE DISCHARGES (cfs) DATE DISCHARGES (cfs) 5 1955 12/30/54 1,670 1956 12/21/55 1,490 1957 12/11/56 516 A 1958 2/12/58 2,790 11/13/57 729 - 1959 2/14/59 3,220 2/14/59 749 __; 1960 2/8/60 2,090 2/8/60 644 # 1961 2/11/61 2,160 2/11/61 276 7 1962 1/19/62 2,120 1/19/61 389 1963 4/12/63 2,220 12/2/62 446 $ 1964 1/20/64 2,950 1/6/64 563 4 1965 12/22/65 3,430 12/22/64* 1.530 1966 1/4/66 3,270 -= 1967 12/5//66 3,110 2 1968 Record Discontinued 1/15/68 380 1969 1/13/69 626 1970 1/23/70 897 55 1971
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11/24/70 936 1972 3/2/72 2,510 - 1973 - 1974 1/16/74 1,170 l
-N oStation converted to a crest-stage partial-record station.
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TABLE 3 b ANNUAL HIGHEST TIDE LEVEL YEAR DATE HIGHEST TIDE TIDE STATION ADJUSTED TIDE (M.L.L.W) ELEV. AT POWERPLANT VICINITY 1920 12/25 8.1 SOUTH JETTY 8.2 1932 12/26611/28 8.2 " 8.3 1933 12/17 8.1 " 8.2 1934 12/8 7.8 "
- 7. 9 1935 12/9 7.8 "
7.9 1936 12/27 7.9 " 8.0 1937 12/17 8.2 " 8.3 1939 12/10 7.6 " 7.7 1940 12/27 7.6 " 7.7 1941 12/17 8.0 " 8.1 1942 12/8 " 7.9 8.0 1943 12/27 7.7 " 7.8 1944 11/29 7.8 " 7.9 1945 12/18 8.1 " 8.2 1946 12/9 8.1 " 8.2 1947 12/27 8.1 " 8.2 1948 12/28,12/17 7.5 " 7.6 11/29 1949 " 12/18 7.9 8.0 1950 12/9 8.1 8.2 1977 12/11 8.87* NORTH SPIT l 1978 12/28 8.33* " 1979 " 12/30 8.86 1980 " l 12/21 8.81 1981 11/27 12.46 " 1982 11/30 9.69 " 1983 1/26 " 9.96 n
- Record not complete for the year, but values used here are for December when highest tides usually occur.
NOTE: According to the correction table of the " Official Tide Table for Humboldt Bay and Vicinity", tides at Fields Landing are 0.3 ft. higher than South Jetty Landing. Since the powerplant site is located about 1/3 of the distance between South Jetty Landing and Fields Landing, 0.1 ft. is used for correcting tides recorded at South Jetty Landing for the plantsite. No correction is assumed needed for tides recorded at North Spit. _9_
b 3 HYDROLOGIC ANALYSIS 2 3.1 Rainfall-Runoff Studv: Two USGS streamflow gaging _ stations were evaluated for historical flood hydrographs. These are the Elk River near Falk gage (11-4797) and the Jacoby Creek near - freshwater gage (11-4800). A hydrograph for the December 21-23, j 1964 flood was the only one that could be obtained for the Elk River - gage. At the Jacoby Creek gage, the hydrograph for the December 21-23, 1955 was the only one available. ' 7-The two flood hydrographs were reconstituted with the aid of ; the computer program HEC-1 for unit hydrograph derivation. Of the ; two hydrographs only the December 1955 flood came out with the best - reconstitution. Therefore, it was concluded that the unit g hydrograph obtained from this flood should be used for the study area. Figure 3 shows the reconstituted flood hydrograph at the gage Jacoby Creek near Freshwater (11-4800). l
3.2 Precipitation
Basin precipitation for the 1955 storm
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a were determined by relating the point rainfall values at Kneeland 10 . m SSE (NWS No. 4587) weather station to the basin near precipitation. == 7 This procedure assumes that the ratio of precipitation increments at the two sites equals the ratio of the mean annual precipitation at
, those sites. .
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The hourly time sequence of storms were based on the pattern of - the same recording precipitation.
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E ^ r 3.3 Precipitation Losses: ' Studies relating basin-average a rainfall amounts for short intervals in a storm to observed runoff a indicate a distinctly nonlinear relationship between basin-mean n . i rainfall intensity and basin-mean rainfall intensity and basin-mean j - infiltration rate. This is due to the heterogeneity of soils, ; J vegetation, and precipitation throughout the drainage basin. To 1 model this relationship, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (1) uses [ the following relationship, with a constraint that loss does not d exceed precipitation for each time interval. E 5 L = KP __ where: L= loss rate in inches per hour. y m K= coefficient decreasing with increased ground ,
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wetness, z P= rainfall rate in inches per hour. 3
-a E= exponent between zero and 1.0, depending on the =
9 variation of factors within the basin. 5 5 The above relationship was used in deriving the loss rate a e m function for the gaged basins during the historical floods that were _
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3.4 Unit Hydrocraph: = A unit hydrograph for the basin Jacoby f-Creek near Freshwater, was obtained from the rainfall-runoff study j of the 1955 storm. "j
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A Clark's time of concentration (Tc) of 2.14 hours and a storage coefficient (R) of 4.64 hours were obtained f rom the optimization.
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2 - i = 4 PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD (PMF) __ i
4.1 General
The term probable maximum flood (PMF) as used in a
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the official documents of the Corps of Engineers identifies estimates of hypothetical flood characteristics (peak discharge, t_ volume and hydrograph shape) that are considered to be the most severe " reasonably possible" at a particular location, based on a e relatively comprehensive hydrometeorological analyses of critical runoff producing precipitation (and snowmelt, if pertinent) and - hydrologic factors favorable for maximum flood runoff (10). This . type of flood is generally used as a spillway design flood for reservoirs impounding large quantities of water and is constructed 3 above a populated community and when failure from overtopping cannot be tolerated. It has also been used as a design basis flood for nuclear generating plants. The criteria for the determination of _ 2 the probable maximum flood is discussed in detail in the American ll National Standard, " Determining Design Basis Flooding at Power
'i Reactor Sites" (11). 3 S
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-3 The PMF determination for the basin was prepared by estimating _
i the areal distribution of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) -- over the drainage basins shown in Figure 1. Excess runoff from the "5 critically arranged precipitation was modeled by the unit hydrograph [ to produce the PMF inflow into the bay. 4 4.2 Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP): The probable maximum preci pi taten is the theoretically greatest depth of
1 m a k precipitation for a given duration that i s physicall y possible over - a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a - certain time of the year. (This definition is a 1982 revision and _ results from mutual agreement among the National Weather Service, 3 m the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Bureau of Reclamation)
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(12). No recurrence interval is assigned to the PMP. For California, PMP estimates are of two types. One is the general j a winter storm and the other is the convective type or local type 2 thunderstorm.
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4.2.1 General Tvoe PMP: Basin mean PMP estimates for long # duration cool-season storms for each sub-basin are calculated in l accordance with the procedures in the U.S. Weather Bureau
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! Hydrometeorological Report No. 36 (2). The critical storm has a l l i 72-hour duration with the daily 6-hour and hourly precipitation 2 E 1
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l i amounts specified in the procedure. The PMP estimates consist of A l I two meteorologic processes called orographic and convergence ' precipitation. i They are calculated separately and then added together. The frontal type cool-season PMP is calculated *or the - 2 months of October, November, December, January-February, March and April. The combined orographic and restricted convergence type storm produced the highest precipitation for all the sub-basins. & - a' Figures 4 and 5 show the orographic and convergence inden linec ,. used for the calculations superimposed on the basins. Table 4 I shows the total combined orographic and restricted convergence PMP is J for the fifteen sub-basins in the study area. O T
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To produce a reasonably critical flood hydrograph from the probable maximum precipitation, it is necessary to specify the time sequence of the precipitation. HMR 36 presents several methods of arranging the 6-hour increments in a critical pattern. However, based on several hi stori cal storm pattern in the t ea, the adopted time distribution in similar to the scquence shown in Figure 7-3(c) . of HMR 36. The maximum one hour precipitation occurs in the 40th hour and the maximum 6-hour precipitation from the 37th to the 42nd hour. 1 l
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R_ TABLE 4 4 TOTAL OROGRAPHIC-RESTRICTED CONVERGENCE PMP G (DEPTHS IN INCHES) j i
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--iii SUB-BASIN !
NO. OCT. NOV. DEC. JAN.-FEB. MAR. APR. - 3
-m 1 21.07 21.64 22.03 22.35 21.67 20.49 #
l 2 17.70 18.20 18.43 18.71 18.20 17.37 3 16.11 16.57 16.72 16.96 16.51 15.83 - 4 22.85 23.46 23.94 24.34 23.48 22.20 " 5 24.89 25,51 26.09 26.49 25.56 24.Oe - 6 7 19.01 25.64 19.54 29.82 7;.92 29.13 19.51 18.57 4 26.31 27.38 27.04 24.77 dd 8 22.01 22.60 22.99 23.40 22.64 21.40 '
. ii 9 19.05 19.58 19.86 20.17 19.55 18.61 -
10 26.53 27.18 27.81 28.29 27.31 25.68 4 11 24.03 24.67 25.18 25.59 24.69 23.31 ) 12 20.81 21.38 21.71 22.02 21.37 20.28 M 13 21.75 22.30 22.71 23.08 22.30 21.1;? d 14 19.93 20.48 20.77 21.06 20.49 19.44 5 15 16.73 17.21 17.38 17.64 17.15 16.42 E
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4.2.2 Local PMP: Intense local thunderstorms can proouce short duration rains for small basins. Such storms, while producing the most intense point rainfalls of record, characteristically show a rapid decrease in rainfall with increase in area. The National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Report No. 49 (3) presents criteria to estimate thunderstorm PMP in terms of a one-hour, one-square mile i sohyetal map. Reductions for areal variation are given for areas up to a maximum of 500 square miles. For storms less than one hour, areal reductions are only given for areas up to 200 square miles. The point values of the thunderstorm FMP at the plant site is p-esented as a depth-duration table in Table 5. The storm has a maximum duration of six hours. For this study, no flood hydrograph determination was necessary. The point value of the peak rainfall was utilized to determine peak instantaneous flows within the plantsite. TABLE 5 DEPTH-DURATION TABLE THUNDERSTORM PMP ESTIMATE DURATION (HRS.) 1/4 1/2 1 2 3 4 5 6 DEPTH (IN.) 2.15 3.50 5.00 6.30 7.05 7.50 7.90 8.25 4.3 Unit Hydrograph: The unit hydrograph for each sub-basin was obtained by synthetically relating the unit hydrograph obtained by optimination at the Jacoby Creek gage. A relationship with the basin characteristics, L, Lca, and S was developed to obtain the Clark's time of concentration, Tc, and storage coefficient, R for e L each of the nub-basin. After several trials an empirical relationship was calibrated with the unit hydrograph obtained at the Elk River gage from the 1964 flood. lhe final equations found applicable to determine the unit hydrograph for the sub-basins are: 1/2 Tc = 3.160 (LLca/S1'2) (1) L/3 R = 5.293 (LLea/S2'r) (2) Where: Tc = Clark's time of concentration. R = Clark's storage coefficient. L = Length of the longest watercourse f rom the point of interest to the watershed divide in miles. Lca = Length of the watercourse from the point of interest to the intersection of the perpendicular from the centroid of the basin to the stream alignment in miles. S = Overall slope of the longest watercourse in feet per mile. Table 6 shows the sub-basin characteristics with their corresponding Clark's unit hydrograph parameters. "A" unit 1 hydrographs for sub-basins 3, 14, and 15 were considered to be a single-ordinate unit hydrograph for each sub-basin. This method was utilized because the sub-basins are large bodies of water where
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r runoff is considered 100% and instantaneous. 4.4 Loss Rates: Loss rates f or each of the sub-basin were based on the loss rates exhibited at the Jacoby Creek during the December 1955 flood. It was assumed that the saturated condition during the historical rainflood would represent the general-type PMF loss rates. The following loss rate parameters were used: 1 STRKR = 0.02 DLTKR = 1.73 RTIOL = 10.13 ERAIN = 0.43 l The above parameters are defined as follows: STRKR = The starting value of loss coefficient on exponential recession curve for rain losses. I DLTKR = The amount of initial accumulated rain loss during which the loss rate coefficient is increased. This _
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parameter is considered to be a function primarily of antecedent soil moisture deficiency and is usually ) dependent. RTIOL = The ratio of rain loss coefficient on exponential loss curve to that corresponding to 10 inches more
of accumulated loss. ERAIN c The e::ponent of precipitation for rain function that reflects the influence of precipitat4cn rate on basin
-average loss characteristics.
l i 4.5 Flood Hydrocraoh Computation: The PMF inflow hydrographs to the power plant site were derived with the aid of the computer 1 program HEC-1, using the estimated storms, unit hydrograph and loss rates as input. In routing the flood that would affect the plantsite, the basin modeling and combining options in HEC-1 were used. The flood flows from sub-basins 1, 2, and 3 were routed and combined at an arbitrary point SB shown ir Figure 1. The flood flows from sub-basins 4, 5, 6, and 9 were routed and combined at a point called MB. The flood finws from sub-basins 7, 8, 12, 10, 11, 13, and 14 were routed and combined at a point called NB. The combined flow at NB was routed with and through sub-basin 15 to a point near the plant. Then all four hydrographs were combined at the plantsite. Sub-basin 15 was considered to be a large channel. Storage and discharge relationships were developed for this sub-basin in order to utilize the storage routing technique called " Modified Puls." l Table 7 shows a summary of peak inflows and 5-day volumes of 1 probable maximum flood at the plant site. l Figures 6 through 11 show the hydrograph of the different cool-season PMF. I 4.6 Flood Elevations: Water surface profiles were run thrcugh sub-basin 15 to determine the elevations under various conditions of
the PMF. To provide a very conservative analysis, the flood profiles were run through the bay under the mean high high water (MHHW) level of 6.7 ft. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers computer program, HEC-2 (13) was used to develop the profiles. Table 7 shows the water surface elevation at the bay near the plantsite during the various probable maximum floods. It can be seen that the increase in water levels are insignificant. f l
TABLE 7 PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD PEAKS AND LEVELS HUMBOLDT BAY PLANT UNIT 3 PMP PMP INFLOW 5-DAY VOLUME BAY W.S. ELEV1 FREEBOARD: EVENT (cfs) (ac-ft.) (f t. ) (ft.) DCT. 108,070 256,150 6.79 5.21 NOV. 103,920 262,350 6.79 5.21 DEC. 99,460 267,060 6.78 S.22 JAN.-FEB. 97,670 270,940 6.77 5.23 MAR. 97,490 263,180 6.77 5.23 APR. 96,030 248,280 6.77 5.23 NOTES: 1. Elevation is based on National Ocean Survey Datum of Mean Lower Low Water level of zero at North Spit tidal gage and transposed to the plant site. Antecedent bav level was assumed equal to 6.7 feet above mean lower low water.
- 2. Freeboard is reckoned from the plant yard elevation of 12 feet MLLW.
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5 WIND AND WAVE ACTION
5.1 General
The estimated ma::imum surcharge level that might be attained during the probable maximum flood represents the ma::imum stillwater level that would be considered for freeboard requirement. However, because of wind movement, determination of wave heights and runup on the embankment along the shoreline are usually a concern in connectiori with evaluating f reeboard allowances. 5.2 PMP Wind: During the probable maximum flood condition, the U.S. Weather Bureau (2) presents estimates of wind velocities that would prevail during the probable maximum precipitation. Because the wind in the PMP procedure is generally used for optimum snowmelt calculation, the time distribution sequence is the same as that of the precipitation and temperature. In other words, the maximum wind velocity occurs on the 40th hour together with the maximum precipitation. Veloci ty-duration decay f unction was based l ! on Figure 5-25 of HMR 36 (2). 1 The criteria for estimating the PMP thunderstorm does not include a method f or determining the coincident wind velocities. l However, U.S. Weather Bureau study (16) states that "in the local thunderstorm situation, the prevailing surface wind is only approximately in the direction of the storm's movement. Before the thunderstorm reaches a particular locality the prevailing wind slackens almost to a calm, changes direction to flow toward the i storm, and freshens and the storm approaches. Just before the rain
starts, the wind shifts abruptly to blow in violent gusts outward from the rain area, reaching its maximum velocities during or just before the period of heavy rain, which occurs in the early portion of the storm. As the rain subsides, the wind also diminishes and resumes its prevailing direction." In view of the short duration of the thunderstorm and the minimal effect of the wind to generate extreme waves, no calculation for thunderstorm wave runup was made. The volume of the 6-hour thunderstorm would not raise the bay to any significant level as to be of concern to plant safety. 5.3 Wi ndstorm: The Department of Water Resources of the State of California published recorded windstorms in California (15). According to the report, the maximum fastest mile wind recorded at Eureka for 66 years of record has a speed of 56 miles per hour coming from the southwest. In the same report, a 100 year wind is estimated to have a speed of 62 miles per hour. l i 5.4 Tornado: The same report of the Department of Water l Resources (15) indicated that a tornado occurred at McKinleyville on March 28, 1958 at 1340 hours. McKinleyville is about 15 miles northeast of the plantsite at latitude 40 degrees 55 minutes, longitude 124 degrees 7 mintues. The length of the tornado was 1610 metres and a width of 183 metres and covered an area of 0.29 square t i kilometers.
5.5 Tropical Storms: Tropical Pacific storms off the west coast of Mexico are a potential source of high winds. However, extreme winds from tropical storms have not been recorded in the Eureka area. 5.6 Effective Fetch: Fetch is the continuous area of water over which the wind blows in an essentially constant direction (sometimes used synonymously wi th f etch length); it is also termed the generating area. Fetch length is the horizontal distance (in the direction of the wind) over which the wind blows. i The Environmental Report (7) indicates that the prevailing wind at the site is from the north. This direction happens to be the one with the longest fetch towards the plant. Figure 12 shows the effective fetches analyzed in the study. 5.7 Wave Analysis: Runup was determined with the aid of the micro-computer program WRUP developed by Noble Software, Inc. (4). l Set-up was calculated by the modified Zuider Zee formula. Table 8 shows a summary of the wave runup and setup analysis for the revetment with a 2:1 slope. Fetch A which is 2.63 miles was found to be the most critical. However, since it is 22.5 degrees from the perpendicular to the f l revetment, it was adjusted by the cosine of the angle. TABLE 8 ESTIMATES OF WAVE RUNUP PMF DESIGN WIND PERIOD RUNUP GETUP TOTAL RUNUP FREEBOARD
- MONTH (mph) (sec) (ft.) (ft.) ABOVE MLLW (ft.)
OVERLAND DVERWATER OCT. 27 33 2.5 1.6 0.3 8.7 7.3 NOV. 31 38 2.3 1.6 O.4 8.8 7.2 DEC. 36 45 2.5 1.9 0.5 9.2 6.8 JAN.-FEB. 40 49 2.6 2.0 0.6 9.4 6.6 MAR. 36 45 2.5 1.9 0.5 9.2 6.8 APR. 31 38 2.3 1.6 O.4 8.8 7. 2 WINDSTORM 56 69 2.9 2.7 1.2 10.7 5.3 100-YEAR 62 77 3.0 3.0 1.5 11.3 4.7 ARBITRARY 100 124 3.5 4.9 4.0 14.7 1.3
- Reckoned from the top of the revetment which is at Elev.16 above MLLW using PGLE survey data dated January 12, 1983.
? l l
6 PLANTSITE DRAINAGE
6.1 General
Potential flooding of the plantsite from the probable maximum precipitation was investigated. Because of the small drainage area of the plant yard, only point values of the PMP were used. 6.2 Peak Flows: Table 9 shows a tabulation of the peak flows from the PMP of different months. Point values based on the time of concentration of 15 minutes calculated by the Kerby formula, were used with the " rational" formula, O = cia. O is the peak instantaneous flow; C is the runoff coefficient which was assumed equal to 1; i is the intensity of rainfall and A is the plantsite drainage area of 53.2 acres. 6.3 Plant Yard Floodina: No specific flood routing was done through the plant yard drainage. Instead it was assumed that the l total 72-hour PMP would fall directly into the total drainage. The l l volume of the 72-hour PMP was estimated to inundate the areas less than Elevation 9 feet (MLLW). Figure 13 shows the flood plain map from the October PMF. Figure 14 shows the flood plain map from the l thunderstorm PMF. k i
TABLE 9 PLANTSITE DRAINAGE PMF PEAK FLOWS AND RUNOFF VOLUME PMF 15-MINUTE 72-HOUR TOTAL RUNOFF PEAK MONTH RAINFALL PMP VOLUME DISCHARGE INTENSITY (in. /hr. ) (in.) (cu.ft.) (cfs) OCT. 6.9 17.70 3,417,000 367 NOV. 6.2 18.20 3,513,000 330 DEC. 5.5 18.42 3,556,000 293 JAN.-FEB. 5.2 18.69 3,608,000 277 MAR. 5.4 18.17 3,507,000 287 APR. 5.5 17.40 3,359,000 293 l THUNDERSTORM PMP
- 8.60 8.25 1,592,000 458 o 6-hr. duration only.
l l 6
7 TSUNAMI
7.1 General
The incidence of tsunami waves in Humboldt Bay at the powerplant site was evaluated using three sources of documents. These documents which are references 16, 17, and 18 are as f ollows: (a) Tsunamis at the Site of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company Power Plant at Buhne Point, Humboldt Bay, California by R.L. Wiegel, October 1965. (b) " Tsunami Atlas for the Coasts of the United States," NUREG/CR-1106, TC-486, November 1979. (c) " Type 16 Flood Insurance Study: Tsunami Predictions l for the West Coast of the Continental United States," Technical Report H-78-26, December 1978 1 7.2 Wieael Report: This report, presented information on the probabilities of tsunamis of various heights that could occur at Buhne Point in Humboldt Bay. Professor Wiegel indicated that a
" probable tsunami" at the site would have a 63% chance of occurrence l
relative to the life of the plant. From a statistical method using Poisson's distribution , the report made the following findings: (a) If the plant life ~is assumed equal to 50 years, the prohpble tsunami would have a wave height of 8
feet (trough to crest). It would have a runup of +7 feet above mean lower low water (MLLW). , Such a tsunami, which has a return interval of 47 years, would not exceed the plant yard elevation of +12 feet above MLLW and would have no effect on the Unit. (b) A probable tsunami with a return interval of 170 years and still has a 63 percent of occurrence, would have a wave height of 15 feet and a runup of +10.5 feet above MLLW. Such a runup would approach yard elevation but still below the revetments near the shores of the bay. (c) A tsunami with a wave height of 34 feet (runup elevation of +20 feet above MLLW) has a return interval of 5,000 years (63 percent risk). A tsunami of this magnitude would flood the plant site 8 feet above yard grade. 7.3 Probable Hiohest Tsunami: A study done for the Nuclear R:gul atory Commi n ._ on by Tetratech , Inc. (NUREG/CR-1106, TC-486) procented the results to determine the distribution of offshore wave h31ghts and time histories for coastal segments of the United due to dictantly generated tsunamis. The hypothetical tsunamis addressed in the report are considered generated by vertical displacement of th2 sea floor with very large earthquakes. (17)
The study does not consider the effects of locally generated major tsunamis since the local bathymetry and the small scale features of bottom displacement are very important in these cases. Instead the study shows wave histories at offshore stations in water of moderate depth (600 feet). In regions of simple bathymetry, this depth corresponds to the edge of the continental shelf. The wave history for the station off Eureka is shown in Figure 15. According to the Atlas, the upper bound of the wave displacement generated by the tsunami is about 5.2 feet from the still water level at the station offshore of Eureka. From the figure, the period of the maximum wave is taken as 3,100 seconds, or about 1.03 hours. As the tsunami propagates to the shore, its amplitude increases due to friction of the ocean bottom, wave refraction, and shoaling effects. Reference 18 is used to predict the wave displacement at the mouth of Humboldt Bay with the following assumptions: (a) The smallest depth at the entrance to Humboldt Bay is 12.4 feet (b) Energy is conserved between the station with water depth of 600 feet and the shore line for an unrefracted tsunami. As a result, Equation 49 of reference 18 is used to relate wave height and water depth between the two stations, as follows: H 2 = fd \1 "1 kdg, where: H = wave height measured from trough to crest d = water depth (c) Bay water is at mean sea level during the arrival of the probable highest tsunami. From Figure 15, the wave height of the probable highest tsunami is: H = 4.4 + 5.2
= 9.6 ft.
The wave height at the shore depth of 12.4 feet is: H 2 = I dl \i 1 (2) 41 2
= Hy [d1)i (d2j I
(9.6) l 600 ) I , ( 12.4 j t I
- = 25.32 feet l
Assuming a still water at mean sea level (3.39 feet) and wave displacements above and below stillwater are equal, (runup = drawdown) the crest of the tsunami is at:
Elev. = 1/2 (25.32) +3.39
= 16.1 ft. above MLLW.
Once the probable highest tsunami passes through the mouth of the Bay, its amplitude would probably decrease due to the divergence effects as the wave propagates north and south. The 1983 survey along the crest of the revetment near the power plant indicates that the average crest elevation is 16 feet above MLLW. Therefore, even if the probable highest tsunami retains its magnitude traveling to the revetment, the amount of overtopping insignificant. I l 7.4 100-and 500-vear Tsunami: Reference 19 was prepared for l l the Federal Insurance Administration by the Corps of Engineers for use in flood insurance rate calculations. From this publication the following wave runups were estimated at the plant site: 100 -yr. tsunami = 10.6 ft. (MLLW). 500 -yr. tsunami = 20.7 ft. (MLLW). The above values include the effects of astronomical tides. They were obtained from Figure 16. t L
REFERENCES
- 1. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, " Flood Hydrograph Package, Computer Program 703-X6-L2010, HEC-1, The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California, September 1981.
- 2. U.S. Weather Bureau, " Interim Report, Probable Maximum Precipitation in California," Hydrometeorological Report No.
36, Washington, D.C., October 1961 with revisions dated October 1969.
- 3. National Weather Service, " Probable Maximum Precipitation i Estimates, Colorado River and Great Basin Drainage,"
Hydrometeorological Report No. 49, Silver Spring, Maryland, l September 1977.
- 4. Noble Software, Inc., " Wave Runup Software Program," WRUP, 22541-A Pacific Coast Highway, Suite 58, Malibu, California, 1984.
- 5. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, " Shore Protection Manual,"
l Coastal Engineering Research Center, Fort Bel voir, Virginia I ( 1984.
- 6. National Climatic Center, " Monthly Normals of Temperature, Precipitation, and Heating and Cooling Degree Days 1941-70."
Climatography of the United States No. 81, U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Environmental Data Service, Asheville, N.C., July 1973.
- 7. Ausmus, B.S., Hofman, L.A., and Trinosky, " Environmental Report for the Decommissioning of Humboldt Bay Power Plant Unit No.
3," Bechtel Natinnal, Inc., San Francisco, California, 1984.
- 8. Hoffman, W., and Rant:, S.E., " Floods of December 1955 -
January 1956 in the Far Western States," Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1650 - A and B, Washington, D.C., 1963.
- 9. Waananen, A.O., Harris, D.D. and Williams, R.C., " Floods of December 1964 and January 1965 in the Far Wester States,"
United States Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1866-A and B, Washington, D.C., 1971.
- 10. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, " Policies and Procedures Pertaining to Determination of Spillway Capacities and Freeboard Allowance for Dame," Engineer Circular, EC 1110-2-27, Change 1, Office of the Chief of Engineers, Washington, D.C.,
February 19, 1968. l
- 11. American Nuclear Society, " Determining Design Basis Flooding at Power Reactor Sites," ANSI /ANS 2.0, La Grange, Illinois, February 17, 1981.
- 12. National Research Council, " Safety of Dams: Flood and Earthquake Criteria," Committee on Safety Criteria for Dams, Water Science and Technology Board, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1985.
- 13. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers; " Water Surface Profiles,"
Computer Program 723-X6-L202A, HEC-2, The Hydrologic Engineering Center, Davis, California.
- 14. U.S. Weather Bureau, " Thunderstorm Rainf all ,"
Hydrometeorological Report No. 5. Washington, D.C., August 22, 1945, p.6.
- 15. Department of Water Resources, " Windstorm in California," The Resources Agency, State of California, December 1979.
- 16. Wiegel, R.L., " Tsunamis at the Site of the Pacific Gas and Electric Company Power Plant at Buhne Point, Humboldt Bay, California," October 8, 1965.
- 17. Brandsma, M., Divoky, D. and Hwang, L., " Tsunami Atlas for the l Coasts of the United States , NUREG/CR-1106, TC-486, Prepared i
by Tetra Tech, Inc. for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, November 1979. I i
- 18. Camfield,F.E., " Tsunami Engineering" Special Report No. 6, U.S.
Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Fort Belvoir, Virginia. February 1980.
- 19. Houston, J.R. and Garcia, A. W., " Type 16 Flood Insurance Study: Tsunami Predictions for the West Coast of the Continental United States," Technical Report H-78-26, U.S. Army ,
Engineer Waterways Experiment Station, Vickburg, Mississippi, December 1978. 9 _39_
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g , I, SASM WEAN ANNUAL PRECPfTATION at 55.00 INCHES l PRECPfTATION PATTERN STATIONm 4587, KNEELAND 10 SSE i ? . ( l$ NOTE: ! !! RECONSTITUTI0h 0F FLOOD PERFORMED WITH THE AfD OF j l 0 THE US ARMY CORP 50F ENGINEERS," FLOOD HYDROGRAPH P
- g* { PACKAGE." COMPUTER PROGRAM T23-X6-L2Olo, HEC-I,THE g ; HTDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER. Davis,CALIPORMA,
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- 1. PHOTO CONTOUR MAP 18 REPRODUCED FROM AERIAL SURVEY CONTRACT NUMSER 63-OlPC-1, SHEETS 3 AND e, DIVISION OF HIGHW AYS, STATE OF CALIFORNIA,1944.
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