ML20126H388

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Comments That Subcommittee on Extreme External Phenomena 810129-30 Meeting in Los Angeles,Ca Re Research Program Was Uninspiring.Bernreuter Probabilities May Prove Valuable
ML20126H388
Person / Time
Issue date: 02/04/1981
From: Thompson G
Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
To: Okrent D
Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
References
ACRS-CT-1307, NUDOCS 8104100094
Download: ML20126H388 (1)


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George A. Thon3pson.

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To:

Dr. David Okrent, ACRS From:

George'A. Thompson, Consultant to ACRS

Subject:

Report on the Subcommittee meeting on Extreme External Phenomena, Los Angeles 1-29 and 1-30, 1981 The main thrust of this meeting, a progress report on the Seismic Safety Margins Research Program, was un-inspiring.

I do not want to dwell on what others must also have observed.

Briefly, however, much o f the re-search is so method-oriented, so non-physical and so lacking in intermediate, testable goa~

that it =ay never be used.

Bernreuter's work is a notable exception.

His interaction with staff (Reiter) is likely to produce both short-and long-term benefits.

'71th further progress, it should be possible to use Bernreuter's probabilities to predict a summation of seis=ic moments per time interval for various regions and to compare this with geologically studied moment rates o f faults.

Such a comparison might provide a val-uable consistency check for bridging to the longer term.

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