ML20125E405
| ML20125E405 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Cooper |
| Issue date: | 01/31/1980 |
| From: | Pilant J NEBRASKA PUBLIC POWER DISTRICT |
| To: | Grimes B NRC - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TASK FORCE |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8002120577 | |
| Download: ML20125E405 (15) | |
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e. LQA8000046 l GENERAL OFFICE Nebraska Public Power Distn. t P. O. Box 499, COLUMSUS, NE5.u t RASKA 64601 c rece~o~e<an u4 =.==.: =. =: _ =.. =.. = .= = _ =. . _. =.. January 31, 1900 Mr. Brian K. Grimes, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission i Washington, DC 20555
Subject:
Estimates for Evacuation Times Cooper Nuclear Station NRC Docket No. 50-298, DPR-46
Reference:
- 1) Letter to All Power Reactor Licensees from B. K. Grimes, dated November 29, 1979
Dear Mr. Grimes:
In response to your request in Reference 1, enclosed are the results of a study performed to estimate the times required to implement an evacuation within the 10 mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) surrounding Cooper Nuclear Station. i The Nebraska State Civil Defense Agency, Missouri Disaster Planning & Operations Office, as well as local officials were contacted for. input into this study. The enclosed data reflect Nebraska State, Missouri State and NPPD estimates only. Iocal officials indicated that meaning-ful evacuation data cannot be developed in the short time frame allowed by the NRC. All parties contacted, as well as NPPD, maintain that generalized assumptions used'at this time to generate evacuation times would result in estimates with inherently large errors which would prove detrimental if actually used by the NRC for planning purposes. If you have any questions regarding the enclosed study, please contact me. Very truly yours, M4 k b Ja i. Pilant . Director of Licensing and Quality Assurance k., V JDW/cak ah-l ~' t Enclosure i t 8 0 02120 5~ 7 7
p '. y 3Ty --{ ~ = E q f }., ' t. 3 i y .ni EPZ EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES COOPER NUCLEAR STATION O' K q ? ' 1. Raquest. L [ Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in item 1 for a genera 1' evacuation of the population (not including special facilities).. A best estimate is required and an adverse weather estimate is required for movemenc of the population.
Response
i Cooper Nuclear Station is located on the West bank of the Missouri River 2.5 miles Northeast of the town of Nemaha and 3 miles South of the town of Brownville. The Nebraska 10 mile EPZ area,is predominantly rural with the exception of the towns of Peru (1,219), Brownv111e (154), Nemaha (184), s q Shubert (225) and Barada (56). A major state recreational area, Indian .1 Caves State Park is situated 8 miles Southeast of the Nuclear Station on the Missouri River. The demographic < situation on the Missouri side of i the river'is similar with no large population centers. The largest town-ship is 2,276 persons. Five areas on the Nebraska side and five areas on the Missouri side of the Missouri River have been defined. (See Attached Maps) Neb raska Population figures are based on 1970 Census Data updated to 1979 by 1 changes estimated in University of Nebraska studies. Nebraska vehicle estimates are based on a factor of average 3.04 persons in households t . with vehicles as established in the 1970 census. Persons without vehicle figures are also derived from the updated 1970 census. Area 1 (180' sector out to two miles) TOTAL Population (esistated) 26 5 families Estimated Vehicles 8 8 Area 2 (Area 1 plus Northern quadrant out to 5 miles) TOTAL Population (estimated) 243 308 Estimated Vehicles 80 100 Estimated Persons bichout Transportation 5 10 without autos Area 3 (Area 1 plus Southern quadrant out to 5 miles) TOTAL Population (estimated) 363 167 Estimated Vehicles 120 55 Estimated Persons Without Transportation 12-25 without autos Area 4. (Area 1 plus Northern quadrant out to t 10 miles) TOTAL POPULATION (estimated) 1940 3045 Estimated Vehicles 632 1015 Estimated Persons Without Transportation 83 455 without autos (Area.5- (Area 1 plus Southern quadrant out to 10 miles) TCTIAL Population (estimated) 1122 455 l Estimated Vehicles 366 150 Estimated Persons Without Transportation 84 10 without autos / 4 4 =. - . o.h
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- Due_to the short time frame allowed for this study, the following Demographic factors have not been considered:
- Where people work vs. where they live (added reaction time). I - School Population Distribution (recurning children to homes or picking them up). - Population Distribution - Day vs. Night. - l 1 Estimates for travel time on the Nebraska side of t'he river are based on a i l standard Relocation planning factor of highway capabilities to handle 1,000 Traf fic movement is estimated at an average cars / hour per lane of traffic. i A major North-South Highway, U.S. Highway 73/75 lies just ) of 20 miles / hour. outside of the EPZ co the West. State Highway 67 is a hard surface road l which enters the area from the South and connects Nemaha, Brownv111e and l U.S. Peru before rejoining U.S. Highway 73/75 to the West of Peru. l Highway 136 crosses the Kissouri River at Brownv111e and proceeds l l West through Auburn just outside the EPZ. This Highway provides the i Except for only exit from the area across the Missouri River to Iowa. the Missouri River serves as an effective this one crossing point, Time estimates are from natural barrier to movement to the East. Departure from Residence to clear all vehicles from the risk area and Single lane traffic flow [ do not consider reception area traffic flew.Due to the short time frame allowed l only is considered on clear roads. l for this study, acceptable adverse weather estimates could not be 1 generated. t Nebraska Travel Time Oniv 4 7 minutes Area 1 (furthest Travel - 2 miles) 29 minutes Area 2 (furthest Travel - 8 miles) 29 minutes Area 3 (furthest Travel - 7 miles) 1 hour 6 4 minutes Area 4 (furthest Travel -13 miles) 52 minutes Area 5 (furthest Travel -10 miles) Additional factors that were not considered in chia study are: - Traf fic flow on Gravel Roads within each sector and limitations. - Possible choke point problems. - Time needed to establish' One-Way Traffic if desired. - Providing for ingress of Emergency Vehicles. - Time to establish Traffic Control and Barricades as needed. Reaction time is defined as that time required af ter a citizen has been Reaction time could ' notified until he is ready to start travel. significantly impact the' overall evacuation time estimate and was not The following' reaction time considerations factored into this study. p _ were not considered: a) General Public - Time to ge't children home from schools or arrange pick-up. - Time to return home from work t; s
y ; m q 7;g; W 47 ~f P g ;:... c 4:%m3 i W ~ g. ~ 4 -iTime to pack necessary belongings. - Public Transportation (for. those with no vehicle) J -- Response time' of buses: -f,etting drivers for buses. 1 - Travel to assembly areas.- 1 Loading.~ -- Time required to walk to assembly areas or to get t transported to assembly areas.- 1 There have been two occurrences in Nebrasks in recent years that were of significant size to provide insight into evaluation timing. i a). -Battle Creek, Nebraska - 27 November 1977 i i 700 persons were evacuated from Battle Creek during nighttime hours i because of a LP0 spill. The incident occurred at 2140 and some-i evacuation.in the near vicinity was started shortly after arrival 1 of Emergency equipment. The decision to evacuate the entire town ] was made.at 0230 on the 28th and of the remaining 500 residents approximately 75% were evacuated by 0420 with 100% evacuation com-placed sometime before 0750. c b) Brownson/ Sidney - 2 April 1978 A spill Incident' occurred at 0707 and evacuation of 500 residents of Brownson started shortly thereafter with completion around 0845. At 0845 ~ evacuation of about 1,000 residents of Sidney began with completion about 2. hours later. It should be understood that these two incidents were extremely localized and that residents did'not have to be moved very far to clear the affected 1 area but these incidents do serve as indicators that evacuations of limited numbers of people from small affected areas are achievable within a reason-able time frame. H 2. Requeis,c,, The' total time required to evacuate special' f acilities (e.g., hospitals) within each area must be specified (best ' estimate and adverse weather). 4 1 i:" ,a
Response
There are no licensed care facilities. located within the 10 mile. Nebraska 'f EPZ. The Missouri 10 mile EPZ contains one Rest Home with 80 beds. 'No '4 estimates were generated for this one small facility. Analysis in this area did not. consider persons in apartments or educational institutions.. 3. Request j l 'The time required for confirmation o'f evacuation should be indicated. -l Confirmation times may. consider special~ instructions to the public (e.g., tyingf : a hankerchief to a door or gate to indicate the occupant has lef t the~ premises).
Response
g i E /E Systems or methods for confirming the evacuation of residents have not ] E f, been developed for the CNS Area nor have they been considerad;in.this y j I /
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- study.'.Due to the shbre cime frame' allowed for this study the following fl39 specific' factors have not as yet been' considered:
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Develop possible systems - Hankerchief/ White" cloth on Mail Box. . Check off system at traffic control points. i { b. Time involved to complace confirmation - Resources available. ] - Travel time to visually sight all residences'. 4. Request t Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in place for areas out to about 10 miles,. estimates of the-time required to evacuate until such measures are in place for the plume exposure emer-i e gecy planning zone (EFZ) should siso be given. Notification times greater than 15 minutes should be included in the evacuacion times and 4 . footnoted to indicate the notification time. 1 Responsa j NPPD, along with several other utilities, are presently in the process l of Petitioning the NRC for Rulemaking on the copic of 15 minute notifi-cation of the public within the 10 mile EPZ. This requirement is con-sidered arbitrary with no supporting justification to indicate that* a such stringent measures are necessary or possible to achieve. For,this reason notification times greater than 15 minutes have not been included
- in this study.
7 5. Request Where special evacuation problems are identified (e.g., in high popu-lation density areas), specify alternative protective actions, such as sheltering, which would reduce exposures and the effectiveness of these measures.
Response
~ There. areLno s~pecial evacuation problems requiring alternative pro-l tactive actions identified within the 10 mile EPZ. The only special area requiring special comment is-the recreation area at Indian Caves State Park situated 8 miles Southeast of CNS on the Missouri River. ~ The Superintendent 'of Indian Caves State Park conducted an analysis of evacuation of that Park considering a Peak visitation day with approx- .imately 3,000 visitors. His estimate is that 85% (2,350) could be clear 1-: , of the Park in the' first hour. The'evacuacion of the ramaining 450 (15%) i ' could be complaced by 3 hours af ter notification. Travel time to outside 1 Lehe cotal affected area should be added to these figures (approximately 4
- 30 minutes.for 10 miles).
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h A short background document should be submitted giving the methods used - co make the estimates and the assumptions made including the routes and methods of transportation used. This document should also note the agreement or. areas of disagreement with principal local of ficials re-garding these estimates.
Response
.t. Methods utilized and assumptions made have been discussed above. The disagreements voiced by local officials, Nebraska State officials, I and NPPD with the large inherent error associated with these estimates is ~ discussed in the, letter transmitting this study. ) 4 d q .y c-i a b'
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