ML20099J458

Applicant Exhibit A-142,consisting of Undated Pages of Unidentified Rept Re Effect of Population Density on Evacuation Time.Summary of Evacuation Questionnaires Encl

ML20099J458
Person / Time
Site:	Limerick
Issue date:	05/22/1984
From:	AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
To:
References
OL-A-142, NUDOCS 8411290056
Download: ML20099J458 (14)

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the news media.

In potentially fast or fast-developing d S

• r incidents, the news media was generally augmented'b phone, public address, and door knocking (16,27).\\y tele. c Each pot'en- -.

tial impact area should be studied to determine an op'timum warning system. New innovations such as computer telephoning, planes with loudspeakers, etc., should be explored (22,3).

A correlation was made between population density and the time required to evacuate the affected area (figure 1) from information received on questionnaires. The data are l

for private vehicles which were the predominant mode for evacuation (more than '99 percent). Evacuations were selected which involved urban, suburban, or rural areas only, and not i

mixtures.

Population density ranged from approximately 15 persons per square mile to 20,000 persons per square mile, j

The evacuation time ranged from approximately two to eighteen hours.

Regression analysis up to a fourth degree i

polynomial provided the best curve fit and is indicated by the line through the data points (34). The line is described by the following equation:

log (Eurs) = 1.30571 - 0.21243 log (persons / square miles) with a standard deviation of 1.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> and a correlation coefficient of -0.71.

The data indicates that more time is required for evacu-ation as population density decreases. Several reasons may be postulated for this i

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The evacuation times reported in the questionnaire h

include the warning times as well as the time required to move 3

the population out of the affected area. Warning times may lengthen as the population density decreases because of l'

increasing distances between persons and more individual con-r tacts.may have to be made..

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More time is required to prepara farms for a " shut j.l down" than for residential dwellings.

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Road networks generally decrease as the population A

density decreases; therefore, more time may be required for evacuation because of limited choice and direction of roads.

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some evacuation investigated occurred in high density

• y, urban and suburban areas approaching the population density ec of New York City and I,os Angeles which have 26,000 and 6,000

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persons per square mile, respectively Q)".

Two such cities,

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Figure 1 Population Density vs. Evacuation Time a-poten-

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f Baton Rouge, Louisiana (150,000 persons) and Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania (75,000 persons) were almost totally evacuated in two and five hours, respectively. The metropolitan busi-ness district of downtown Portland, Oregon, with a population of 101,000 persons and a population density of 25,200 persons per square mile, was evacuated in less than one hour during a Civil Defense test exercise (35,).

Although no correlation could be-determined relating the total number of persons evacuated with evacuation time, two theoretical evacuation studies for large populations (more than 1,000,000 persons) show that such evacuations are possible within a reasonable time span. One study concluded that 4,300,000 persons could l

be evacuated from the Los Angeles Basin area in less than five hours (36). The other study, concerning the evacuation of approximatelty 2,200,000 children from the New York City metropolitan area, indicated that the evacuation could be accontplished in ene to three days without disturbing normal weekday metropolitan activities (37).

If the evacuation occurred on a Sunday, it could be accomplisEed during daylight hours, i

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~A statistical comparison was'made on the events used in figure 1 to determine if the use of a plan for an evacuation reduced the time required to evacuate che affected area.

Based i

on the information collected, no significant difference between the evacuations utilizing a plan and those in which no plan

..was used could be determined.

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An' approximation can be made of the time required to evacuate affected areas based on the load capacity of roads.

Several studies have been made on evacuation times related j

to road capacities (20,33,,36,38).

Estimates indicated that l

1,000 vehicles cculd'Te moved per lane per hour (36).

In l

observations during evacuations, 1,100 to 4,080 cais per lane 38).

The average of actual l

per hour were observed (20,35,7,600 l

observations was approximatEIy cars per lane per hour.

The average vehicle occupancy observed during a large evacu-ation was four persons (35).

Assuming 2,600 cars per lane per hour with an occupancy of four persons each, about 10,000 persons can be evacuated per lane per hour. Vehicle speeds i.

observed ranged from 25 to 45 mph (with an average of 35 mph) fr during the evacuation (2_0,,35,,3_8_).

In addition to the time fe calculated, based on flow rate and vehicle occupancy, more time must be allowed for the warning period and for the aver-a age time required to drive out of the impact area.

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1 C-Based upon Dr. Dynes' response to the specific question

~'f of behavior to radiation versus other threats, corroborated L,e by the research (40) that reveals the true behavior of people during a disaster as opposed to the panic conception, there i

is no reason to believe or assume that the risk of injury or i

death should be any higher due to an evacuation than the normal accident or injury rate.

. one fact is borne out by varicus data of past disasters:

the freedom to escape from threat of death or injury has a calming effect on the population." (37)

Motivation to evacuace In many cases, even when presented with a grave threat, people refuse to evacuate (1_6,M,M,M).

Many reasons have been l

l given both by persons who have not evacuated (17,23), and persons.,

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1 conducting the evacuation as to this reluctance to 1 eave.

To i

some degree, it is the individual's impressions and interpre-tation of the seriousness of the situation based on the official or unofficial information he/she receives.

An individual-evaluation is made and a positive or negative action elicited.

l It cannot be taken for granted that an official order to evacu-I ate will be followed, even if it is a mandatnry rather than a i

"moluntary order.

Results of this study indicate that approxi-j mately six percent of the total population refused to evacuate.

i Other reports indicate this figure can run higher than 50 I

percent (23).

_s There is no reason to believe that because the disaster NOE

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agent is radiation rather than some other agent, that is, in itself, will provide sufficient motivation to leave.

Rather,

" i the opposite viewpoint should be taken--people will be hesitant to leave.

Cognizance should be given in the planning stage to this problem and appropriate thought given to its remedy.

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Warning systems and communication systems between evacues-evacuator, evacuator-evacuator, and evacuator-news media-a

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" population play a significant role in the emergency and/or j

evacuation process ( M,M,M).

It is not only important that i

pretested, orkable systems be available, but that an under-

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standing of peoples' response and behavior to warning systems-be recognized and be advantageously used.

"j Emergency plans There have been many documents published on emergency and i

disaster planning (44-48), some of which are listed in the bibliography.

It was not the intent of this report to go into

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