ML20080K166

Forwards Presentation Matl Used at 830923 Meeting Re SER (NUREG-0853) Outstanding Issue 1 on Transportation Accidents,Inadvertently Omitted from

ML20080K166
Person / Time
Site:	Clinton
Issue date:	02/08/1984
From:	Geier J, Geiser J ILLINOIS POWER CO.
To:	Schwencer A Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
RTR-NUREG-0853, RTR-NUREG-853 L30-84(02-08)-L, L30-84(2-8)-L, U-0694, U-694, NUDOCS 8402150317
Download: ML20080K166 (1)

Text

{{#Wiki_filter:U-0694 0210.6-L f. i L30-84(02-08)-L 3 ILLINDIS POWER 00MPANY ]e ) ctiston Powen s ATioN. P.O. sox e7s. cLiNTos totir.c:s e February 8, 1984 Docket No. 50-461 Director of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Attention: Mr. A. Schwencer, Chief Licensing Branch No. 2 Division of Licensing U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555 Subj ect: Clinton Power Station Unit 1 SER Outstanding Issue #1 (NUREG-0853) Transportation Accidents _ o

Dear Mr. Schwencer:

Illinois Power Company letter U-0693 dated January 31, 1984 was intended to provide the presentation material used at the September 23, 1983 meeting on the subject issue. We understand this issue will be resolved in Supplement No. 3 to the Clinton Safety Evaluation Report. Due to an administrative error the attachment was not included in the mailing c,f the aforementioned letter. This letter provides the material which was inadvertently omitted together with a copy of IP letter U-0693. Illinois Power Company regrets the administrative error and hopes that it does not seriously inconvenience the handling of the issue closure. Sincerely yours, f].n191~.. u a 'n. (S. D. Geier Manager Nuclear Station Engineering GEW/ lam Attachment cc: G. A. Harrison, NRC Clinton Licensing Project Manager NRC Resident Office Illinois Department of Nuclear Safety O!o PDR q l

U- 0693 0210.6-L-lLLINDIS POWER COMPANY } L30-84 (01-31)L 500 SOUTH 27TH STHEET. DECATUR. ILUNolS 62525 January 31, 1984 Docket No. 50-461 Director of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Attention: Mr. A. Schwencer, Chief Licensing Branch No. 2 Division of Licensing U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555 Subj ect: - Clinton Power Station Unit 1 SER Outstanding Issue # 1 (NUREG-0853) Transportation Accidents

Dear Mr. Schwencer:

A meeting was held at the NRC offices in Bethesda, Maryland on September 23, 1983 to discuss the subject issue. The NRC meeting summary is given in Mr. G. Harrison's memorandum of December 20, 1983 wherein he requested formal documenting of the Illinois Power Company (IP) findings and analysis on the transportation accident issue. Attached to close this issue are the IP presentation materials used at the September 23 meeting. We understand this issu2 will be resolved in Supplement No. 3 to the Clinton Safety Evaluation Report. Sincerely yours, (J. D. Geier Manager Nuclear Station Engineering Y WM attachment cc: G. A. ' Harrison, NRC Clinton Licensing Proj ect Manager NRC Resident Office Illinois Department of Nuclear Safety -j (711. ~ A

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}D e 4 C CLINTON POWER STATION TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENTS SER OUTSTANDING ISSUE #1 PRESENTATION OUTLINE f 1. GENERAL INTRODUCTION D. HOLTZSCHER -SER ISSUE BACKGROUND -SITE / PLANT LAYOUT 2. T0xic HAZARDS ANALYSIS R. RIPPY' -DATA COLLECTION -SCREENING OF CHEMICALS -HAZCHEM P. SCHOLL I ( -T0x!C LIMITS -PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT T. RILEY -ANALYSIS CONSERVATISMS -C0cCLL'S IONS 3. EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS J. D0YLE -DATA COLLECTION -BASIC ASSUMPTIONS -PROBABILITY CALCULATION -ANALYSIS CONSERVATISMS T. RILEY -CONCLUSI0HS ~ L 14. CONCLUDING COMMENTS / REGULATORY D. HOLTZSCHER COMPLIANCE e 9 9

e%6 TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENTS C SER OUTSTANDING ISSUE #1 BACKGROUND CPS SER (NUREG-0853) SECTION 2.2.1 - TRANSPORTATION ROUTES: 8 "THE NEAREST RAILROAD IS A LINE OF THE ILLINOIS CENTRAL GULF RAILROAD WHICH RUNS PARALLEL TO STATE ROUTE 54 AND TRAVERSES THE SITE APPROXIMATELY 0.75 MI (1,21 KM) NORTH OF THE STATION. THE ILLINOIS CENTRAL GULF RAILROAD ALSO HAS A'LINE APPROXIMATELY 3,5 MI (5.6 KM) SOUTH OF THE STATION. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH RAIL TRANSPORTATION OF T0XIC AND EXPLOSIVE MATERIALS ARE STILL BEING EVALUATED. BASED ON 1976 AND 1980 TRANSPORTATION DATA OBTAINED FROM ILLINOIS CENTRAL GULF RAILROAD, THE APPLICANT HAS IDENTIFIED SEVERAL MATERIALS REQUIRING FURTHER ANALYSIS. THESE WILL BE ADDRESSED IN A FUTURE SER SUPPLEMENT." 8 ILLINOIS POWER COMPANY RESPONSES LETTCR MAY 28, 1982: -RUPTURE PROBABILITY FOR ICGR UNREALISTIC. -DELAYED IGNITION OF VAPOR CLOUD REQUIRED CLARIFICATIO!!. LETTER MARCH 4, 1983: -USED I4ATIONAL SMIPPING DATA FOR RUPTURE PROBAP.ILITY -L3ED IP SURVEY DATA FOR SHIPPING FREQUENCY -EXPANDED DESCRIPTION OF DELAYED IGNITION EVALUATION LETTER AUGUST 26, 1983: ADDITI0tlAL INFORfiATION OH ( ~ T0XICITY LIMITS. LETTER SEPTEMBER 16, 1983: DISCUSSION ON CONSERVATISMS. L t n s

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~ s. a CONTROL ROOM HVAC DESIGN e UNIT 1 CONTROL ROOM VOLUME - 294,000 FT3 REDUNDANT AIR INTAKES OPPOSITE SIDES OF PLANT - 375' APART e ISOLATION CAPABILITY AUTO ISOLATION SMOKE CHLORINE MANUAL ISOLATION SELF-DETECTION ( e MODES OF OPERATION NORMAL - 4000 CFM MAKEUP HIGH RADIATION CONDITION - 3000 CFM MAKEUP - MAKEUP FILTER - RECIRCULATION FILTER ISOLATED - NO MAKEUP - RECIRCULATION FILTER e 100% REDUNDANT EQUIPMENT TRAINS 8 (NTERNAL RECIRCULATION FILTERS -ACTIVATED CHARCOAL 2700 LBS PER BED -57,000 CFM CAPACITY k-e BOTTLED AIR SUPPLY 6 HOURS SUPPLY FOR EMERGENCY STAFF (5 PEOPLE) REMOTE FILL STATicil.3UTSIDE

.s SLIDE 1 ( DATA COLLECTION METHOD 8 IPC PERFORMED COMPREHENSIVE SURVEY -FROM ICG SHIPPING RECORDS -SURVEY PERIOD: DECEMBER 1, 1981 TO NOVEMBER 30, 1982 8 IDENTIFICATION OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS -DEFINITION OF " HAZARDOUS MATERIALS" -IDENTIFICATION REQUIRED BY 49CFR " TRANSPORTATION" SERIES STANDARD TRANSPORTATION COMMODITY CODE (STCC) NUMBER RESOLTS ( e 123 TYPES OF HAZARDOUS MATERIALS 8 SUMMARIZED IN TABLE 1 0F flARCH 4, 1983 REPORT l t L l - ~ ~ ~,.

\\ ~. SLIDE 2 SCREENING OF CHEMICALS 8 SHIPPING FREQUENCY 9 VAPOR PRESSURE e SIMPLE ASPHYXIANTS e Low TOXICITY e FURTHER ANALYSIS ( 1 .j j

SLIDE 3 ( l SHIPPING FREQUENCY 8 REG. GUIDE 1.78 CRITERION e 19 CHEMICALS SHIPPED 30 OR MORE TIMES PER YEAR e SUMMARIZED IN TABLE 2 0F REPORT (SLIDE 4) ' VAPOR PRESSURE e REG. GUIDE 1.78 CRITERION e CHEMICALS ELIMINATED - VAPOR PRESSURE LESS THAN 10 TORR i -SULFURIC ACID ( -MON 0ETHAN0LAMINE -CORROSIVE LIQUID N.0.S. -SooIUM NITRATE (SOLID) W L u u 4 j a

6L,lPP 4 [cF W RW.PcR.T PATEP 3/+)93) TABLE 2 i HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SHIPMENTS WITH A FREQUENCY ( OF 30 OR MORE CARS PER YEAR OVER THE ILLINOIS CENTRAL GULF-GILMAN LINE, 12/1/81 TO 11/30/82 STCC No. Descrintion of Commodity Carloads Tons 4904210 Anhydrous Ammonia 37 3,119 4905706 Butane 443 31,146 4905707 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (butene 345 24,459 gas, liquefied) 4905747 Isobutane 793 57,001, 4905752 Liquefied Petroleum Gas 885 61,816 4905781 Propane 164 11,559 4905782 Propylene 801 57,132 4906620 Propylene oxide 77 5,164 4907270 Vinyl Acetate 137 10.769 ( 4909110 Alcohol, N.O.S. (ethyl alcohol, 60 4,817 anhydrous, denatured in part with petroleum products and/or chemicals not to exceed five percent) 4909141 Denatured Alcohol 56 3,874 4913144 Formaldehyde (or) formalin solution 38 3,227 (in containers over 100 gallons) 4915259 __ Petroleum Naphtha 47 3,468 4918746 Sodium Nitrate 34 1,980 4930040 Sulfuric Acid 156 13,831 4935665 Moncethanolamine 44 3,391-4936110 Bromine 34 1,340 4936540 Corrosive Liquid, N.O.S. 34 2,621 j 4940320 Carbon Tetrachloride 185 15,560 l (_ s

SLIDE 5 C SIMPLE ASPHYXIANTS 8 REG. GUIDE 1.78 CRITERION -SIMPLE ASPHYXIANTS MAY BE ELIMINATED FROM CONSIDERATION UNLESS "A SIGNIFICANT FRACTION OF THE CONTROL ROOM AIR COULD BE DISPLACED AS A RESULT OF THEIR RELEASE". e SAX CRITERION -UP TO A THIRD OF THE AIR IN A ROOM CAN BE DISPLAYED BY A SIMPLE ASPHYXIANT BEFORE A HUMAN BEING WILL EXPERIENCE ADVERSE EFFECTS. e ASPHYXIANTS ELIMINATED -BUTANE -PROPYLENE -BUTENE l I i t l \\- e .. n. +

SLIDE 6 l ( low T0XICITY e SAX'S T0XICITY SCALE -T0XICITY EVALUATED ON BASIS OF NUMERICAL SCALE: 1= SLIGHT T0XICITY, 2= MODERATE T0XICITY, 3: SEVERE T0XICITY -CHEMICALS WITH ACUTE SYSTEMIC T0XICITY RATING OF 1 DUE TO INHALATION OR AS AN IRRITANT WERE NOT CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY T0XIC TO WARRANT FURTHER INVESTIGATION. -CHEMICALS WITH A T0X,ICITY RATING OF 1 ARE SLIGHTLY T0XIC. THEY CAUSE SLIGHT CHANGES WHICH ARE READILY REVERSIBLE AND DISAPPEAR AT THE END OF EXPOSURE. -THEY WILL NOT PREVENT A CONTROL ROOM OPERATOR FROM SAFELY OPERATING THE PLANT. -IS0 BUTANE AND PROPANE MET THIS QUALIFICATION. ( l

^ SLIDE 7 ( e SAX'S CONCENTRATIONS FOR LONG EXPOSURES -SAX DOES NOT GIVE A T0XICITY RATING FOR LIQUID PETROLEUM GAS (LPG). DESCRIBED BY SAX AS "T0XICITY: UNKNOWN. MAY ACT AS A SIMPLE ASPHYXIANT." -SAX LISTED A THRESHOLD LIMIT VALVE (TLV) FOR LPG. -TLV: MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION OF A CHEMICAL TO WHICH A HUMAN CAN BE SAFELY EXPOSED FOR SEVERAL HOURS DAILY OVER LONG PERIODS OF TIME. -T0XIC LIMIT FOR ACUTE EXPOSURE (AS IN A T0XIC SPILL) WOULD BE MUCH HIGHER THAN TLV. -TLV FOR LPG = 1000 PPM (

• EQUAL TO TLV 0F PROPANE
• IMPLIES HIGH LEVEL OF HUMAN TOLERANCE LPG WAS CONSIDERED SUFFICIENTLY T0XIC TO WARRANT FURTHER INVESTIGATION.

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~ SLIDE 8 ( FURTHER ANALYSIS e 9 CHEMICALS REMAINING FOR FURTHER ANALYSIS -PROPYLENE OXIDE -VINYL ACETATE -CAR. BON TETRACHLORIDE -PETROLEUM NAPHTHA -FORMALDEHYDE -DENATURED ALCOHOL -ALCOHOL N.O.S. l -ANHYDROUS AMMONIA ( -BROMINE l l F i m ._m-

0 { CHEMICALS AiiALYZED BY HAZCHEM PROPYLENE OXIDE VINYL ACETATE CARBON IETRACHLORIDE BR0t1INE i ANHYDROUS AMMONIA EETROLEUMNAPHTHA PENTANE HEXANE HEPTANE ( ~ FORMALDEHYDE 37% AQUEOUS SOLUTION 50% AQUEOUS SOLUTION DENATURED ALCOHOL / ALCOHOL, NOS ETHYL ALCOHOL BASE ' SEVERAL DENATURANTS L l l I il

(. ~ THE HAZCHEM PROGRAM = s CALCULATES CHEF 41 CAL CollCENTRATION FRot4 A DISTANT SOURCE BASED ON R. G. l'.78 DIFFUSION ANALYSIS VALIDATED BY SARGENT & LUNDY Two VERSIONS: GAS l! QUID e O .e e j = l \\ l L y .i, p

~ (. HAZCHEM I;IPUTS - DISTANCE FROM RELEASE TO PLANT AMOUNT OF CHEMICAL SPILLED - CHEMICAL PROPERTIES - WEATHER CONDITION 3 - CONTROL ROOM VENTILATION CHARACTERISTICS ( HAZCHEM OUTPUTS CHEMICAL CONCENTRATION AT CONTROL ROOM INTAKE - CHEMICAL CONCENTRATION INSIDE CONTROL ROOM e l L 4 l

(, HAZCHEM PROGRAM APPLIED ASSUMPTIONS . RELEASE OF, MAXIMUM RECORDED TANK CAR WEIGHT - INSTANTANEOUS REL. EASE OF TOTAL CAR CONTENTS I - RELEASE AT POINT ON RAILROAD NEAREST PLANT - GROUND RELEASE OF CHEMICAL - CONTROL ROOM INTAKE DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF RELEASE - PUFF CENTER (MOST CONCENTRATED POINT) AT CONTROL ROOM { INTAKE - PASQUILL STABILITY CLASS F (VERY STABLE) PER R.'G. 1.78 - FOR GASES, INSTANTANEOUS RELEASE.PER PUFF MODEL OF R. G. 1.78 , - FOR LICUIDS, CONTINUOUS EVAPORATION BASED ON . CHEMICAL PROPERTIES AND GUIDELINES OF R. G. I'78 4 e l l i I \\ D

C. DETERiilNATION OF CHEiilCAL HAZARDS IF HAZCHEli CONCENTRATION I,ESS THAN ACUTE EXPOSURE T0XICITY LIMIT, THEN THE CHEMICAL IS NOT HAZARDOUS. NOTE: T0XICITY LIMITS WERE CONSERVATIVELY' COMPARED WITH CALCULATED CONCENTRATIONS AT THE CONTROL ROOM INTAKE (WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN INSIDE THE CONTROLROOMY. e 6 e e W b D

C DEFINITIONS OF T0XICITY LIMIT TERMS ACUTEEXPOSURET0XICITYLIMIT-CHEMICALCONCEhTRATI0tl "RESULTING IN HUMAN DISCOMFORT OR INCAPACITATION AFTER A FEW HOURS OF EXPOSURE. THRESHOLD LIMIT VALUE (TLV) - CHEMICAL CONCENTRATION TO WHICH WORKERS MAY BE EXPOSED DAILY WITHOUT ADVERSE EFFECTS. TIME WEIGHTED AVERAGE (TWA) - CHEMICAL CONCENTRATION ACCEPTABLE FOR LENGTHLY EXPOSURES, CALCULATED BY AVERAG-ING CONCENTRATION OVER TIME. G .j 8 k l l

( METHODOLOGY FOR DETERMINIi!G T0XICITY LIMITS - BECAUSE OPERATOR EXPOSURE TO A RELEASED CHEMICAL WOULD BE OF SHORT DURATION (A FEW HOURS), ACUTE

• EXPOSURE T0XICITY LIMITS ARE APPLICA3LE.

- ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMITS ARE NOT OFTEN AVAILABLE IN t TCXICITY LITERATURE. -WHEREACUTEEXPOSURELIMITSWEREUNA*fAILA3LE,EITHEP. { THE TWA OR 2xTLV WERE USED AS CON 5ERVATIVE APPROXIMATIONS. g i l s

I (. ACUTE EXPOSURE T0XICITY LIMITS ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMITS PER R.'G. 1.78 OP, T0XICOLOGY REFERENCES FOR THE FOLLOWING: 4 CUTE XPOSURE . CHEMICAL ...IMIT PPM) PROPYLENE OXIDE 1500 CARBON IETRACHLORIDE 1500 FORMALDEHYDE 10 ETHYL. ALCOHOL (DENATUREDALCOHoD 5000 CHLOROFORM (DENATURAtlT) 2000 ( EHHYL ETHER (DENATURANT) 800 9 e e t l -m y

C-l TIME WEIGHTED AVERAGE (TWA) ( THE TIME WEIGHTED AVERAGE CONCENTRATION WAS USED AS AN ESTIMATE OF THE ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMIT FOR THE FOLLOWING: CHEMICAL TWA (PPM) l HEXANE (PETROLEUM NAPHTHA) 500 I e +. G i i i s ( e ) 4 t j i e

o. THRESH 0LD LIMIT VALUE (TLV) TWO TIMES THE. THRESHOLD LIMIT VALUE (2xTLV) WAS USED TO ESTIMATE ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMITS FOR THE FOLLOWING: I CHEMICAL 2xTLV (PPM) PENT NE (PETROLEun NAPHTHA) 1200 HEPTANE (PETROLEUM NAPHTHA) 800 METHYL ALCOHOL (DENATURANT) 400 BENZENE (DENATURANT) 50 EUTYL ALCOHOL (DENATURANT) 200 ( METHYL ISOBUTYL KETONE (DENATURANT) 200 TOLUENE (DENATURANT) 400-S S e b e O 4 P ( e

( ~ CONSERVATISi1 IN THE USE OF TWA AND 2XTLV 4 USE OF TWA IS CONSERVATIVE SINCE IT IS FOR LENGTHY EXPOSURES. USE OF 2xTLV IS ALSO CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE: - CHEMICAL CONCENTRATIONS TOLERABLE ON A DAILY BASIS SHOULD 'BE TOLERABLE IN AT LEAST DOUBLE CONCENTRATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS. - CHEMICALS WITH KNOWN ACUTE LIMITS AND KNOWN TLV SHOW A RATIO BETWEEN ACUTE LIMITS AND TLV GREATER THAN ' 2:1. FOR EXAMPLE: ( % CUTE RATIO-ACyTg CHEMICAL .IMIT'(PPM) ILV"(PPM) LIMIT: iLv A - PROPYLENE 0xIDE 1500 100 15:1 CARBON IETRACHLORIDE 1500 10 150:1 CHLOROFORM 2000 50 210:1 - THE USE OF 2xTLV 13 CONSISTENT WITH T0XICITY LIMITS LISTED IN IABLE C-l'0F REGULATORY G.UIDE 1.78. f s l -m.- -~ e-

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4 i { s_ _.. Table 3 l l HAECllEM CALCULATIONS OF TOXIC CllEMICAL CONCENTitATIONS AT CLINTON STATION CONCENTRATION AT, HAXIMUM ALLOWABLE AMOUNT OF

• a CONTROL EDOH COIICENTRATION CHEt11 CAL

. INTAKE CALCULATED FOR ACUTE REFERENCE /CO N j CllEMICAL EVALUATED BY HAICllE!! EXPOSURES i 3 3 Propylene. 121 tons 0.843 x 10-4 lb/ft 0.225 x 10-3 lb/ft Reference 5 .0xide (562 ppm) (1500 ppm) f Vinyt Acetate 101 tons 0.171 x 10 lb/ft3 No acute exposure Reference 6 (reports (77 ppm) limits were found it to be a "relativel non-toxic material.")y i Carbon 130 tons 0.442 x 10 lb/ft3 0.609 x 10-3 lb/ft Reference 3 3 Tetrachloride (109 ppm) (1500 ppm) 3 3 0.1707 x 10~3 lb/'ft 0.221 x 10-3 lb/ft Referer.ca 7 Pentane 97 tone (Petroleum (927 ops) ~ (1200 ' = 2 x TLV** ppm) l Naphtha) Ilexane 97 tons .0.5097 x 10"' lb/ft3 1.10 x 10~0 lb/ft Reference 7 3 (Petroleum (232 ppm) (500 ppm) f-Naphtha) = TWA** Reference 7 l Heptane 97 tons 0.2371 x 10~4 lb/ft 2.00 x 10~' lb/ft3 3 (800 (Petroleum (95 ppm) - 2 x TLV** ppm) Naphtha) i 3 3 I 37% Formalde-98 to.se 0.4496 x 10-7 lb/ft 7.49 x 10-7 lb/ft References 2, hyde (0.6 ppm) (10 ppm) ~ (Formalin) 3 3 50Z Formalde 98 tona 0.5941 x 10'7 lb/ft 7.49 x 10-7 Ib/ft - References 2,. hyde (0.8 ppa) (10 ppm) 3 3 Ethyl Alcohol 100 tons 0.497 x 10-5 lb/ft 0.587 x 10~3 lb/ft References 2 (42 ppm) (5000 ppm) E Haximum Shipping Weight from survey.

• • If an acute exposure limit could not be found, a value of 2 x TLV (Threshold Limit Valve for an

[. 6-hour. daily exposure). or the TifA (Time Weir.hted Averar.o for Ic.inthy exposure) was used. These

l 1 .~ ...m TABLE 4 MAZCHEM CALCUI.ATIO::S OF T0XIC CHEMICAL 'CONCENTRATIO :S AT CLINT0!! STATIO:: . ~. .e CONCENTRATION AT HAXIMUM ALLC'!A3LE AMOUNT OF CONTROL ROOM CONCE::TRAT!C:: T* CHE!!ICAL INTAKE CALCULATED FOR ACLTE CHEMICAL - EVALUATED ~ BY HAZCHI:I EXPOSURIS Methyl. Alt: chol (as 100 tons 0.2234 x 10*' lb/ft3 2 x TLV* a worst case (296 ppa) 0.3015 x 10"4=lb/ft3 for denatured (400 pp ) alcohol) DENATURED ALCO.HOL: Concentrations at the control roem intake for the following donaturants were estimated by scalin'.d::.-... . c:- concentration for a 100-ton methyl alcohol spd' to the maximum acount of each donaturant found in 100 tens of denatured ethyl alcohol. MAXIMUM % CONCINTRATIC*: AT MAXU li! BY WEIGHT IN CONTROL ROON ALLOWA~tLE ETHYL ALCOHOL INTAKE FOR AN CONCE::TRATO :* FOUND IN EQUIVALENT A:: CUNT FOR ACLTE DENATURANT LITERATURE OF METMANOL EXPOSL*RE S ~ j Benzene, 5.27% 13 ppa .2 x TLV* = 00 pp: Butyl Alcohol 2.79% 7 ppm 2 x TLV* - 200 pp= Chloroform 8.5% 12 ppa 2000 ppm. Ethyl Ether 8.15% 25 ppa " 400 ppm Formald hy 4.37% 8 ppa 10 ppa Reptane 5% 16 ppm 2 x TLV* = 1000 pps Methyl Isobutyl 5% 14 ppm 2 x.TLV* = 200 pp= Eetone Toluene 5.07% 13 ppm 2 x TL * = 400 pps '~ = If an actue exposure limit could not be found, a value of 2 x TLT (Threshold Limit Value for an S-hour, daily exposure) was used. This value is very conservative. NOTE: All denaturant maximum allos, table concentrations were taken frc: Reference 3, except for. fernaldehyde, which was taken from ::eferen:e 2. L ,.-.,---w --...-nn.~

C CLINTON P0wER STATION T0xIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS PROBABILITY RISx ASSESSMENT e FOLLOWING "HAZCHEM" DIFFUSION ANALYSIS, TWO CHEMICALS REMAINED FOR FURTHER EVALUATION: ANHYDROUS AMMONIA BROMINE e NUREG-0800 (STANDARD REVIEW PLAN) SECTION 2.2.3 PROVIDES CRITERIA FOR DESIGN BASIS EVENTS: "THE PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE OF THE INITIATING EVENTS LEADING TO POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES IN EXCESS OF 10 CFR ([ PART 100 EXPOSURE GUIDELINES SHOULD BE ESTIMATED USING ASSUMPTIONS THAT ARE AS REPRESENTATIVE OF THE SPECIFIC SITE AS IS PRACTICABLE. IN ADDITION, BECAUSE OF THE LOW PROBABILITIES OF THE EVENTS UNDER CONSIDERATION, DATA ARE OFTEN NOT AVAILABLE TO PERMIT ACCURATE CALCULATION OF PROBABILITIES. ACCORDINGLY, THE EXPECTED RATE OF OCCURRENCE OF POTENTIAL EXPOSURES IN EXCESS OF THE 10'CFR PART 100 GUIDELINES OF APPROXIMATELY 10-6 PER YEAR IS ACCEPTABLE IF, WHEN COMBINED WITH REASONABLE QUALITATIVE ARGUMENTS, THE REALISTIC PROBABILITY CAN BE SHOWN TO BE LOWER." L. l

CPS RISK ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS UTILIZES TWO CONSERVATIVE AND CROSS-CHECKING METHODS: METHOD #1 - PROBABILITY OF RELEASE PER CAR MILE AND SHIPPING FREQUENCY IN CARS PER YEAR. 8 PA = PR(C). FCC).[ E L(D). PW(D)] D=1 WHERE 3 PA=PROBABILITYOFANACCIDENT[ ES } L y PR(C) = PROBABILITY OF RELEASE [R L ] CR L F(C)=FREQUENCYOFSHIPMENT( } L(D)=LENGTHOFTRACKSEGMENT[MILESl PW(D) = WIND PROBABILITY [DIMENSIONLESS) "D" IS WIND DIRECTION "C" IS CARS i L.-

a METHOD #2 - PROBABILITY OF RELEASE PER TON MILE AND SHIPPING FREQUENCY IN TONS PER YEAR. 8 PA = PR(T). F(T). [E L(D). Pw(D)] D=1 TERMS AS DEFINED BEFORE ExCEPT "I" IS TONS. e QUANTIFICATION OF TERMS ACCIDENT RELEASE FREQUENCIES ANHYDROUS AMMONIA (NON-FLAMMABLE GAS) PR(C) = 0.019 x 10-6 [RELEAjES} PR(T) = 0.27 x 10-9 [R {A ES - BROMINE (CORROSIVE) PR(C) = 0.090 x 10-6 [ RELEASES ; PR(T) = 1.10 x 10-9 [yE EA [S}

• SHIPPING FREQUENCIES ANHYDROUS AMMONIA F(C)=37[ CAR l}

F(T) = 3119 [$"l) l.

( =. M: ~z.,-.<!.. .:....a....._.. 'T 5 oF.fP REPolitT PATED 3 85 i a: :<... > :c:.:. \\ ACCIDENT. FREQUENCIES PER MILLION CAR-MILES IE5kI "MMIM FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS COMMODITIES -t' 6.='.Qx.&:.y*'

' n ~

-:^ 7, t,',*... ~- ~ .' '.Cy we a. e. c.i_ .c.s.n.:yc:*6'f . DAMAGE THRESHOLD .q q r ' - -l - ' ,?.,'. ~ n ..: c., $0 > $100 > $5000 ~ '.'.T : ' . -.i : . Explosives. l' l. 3 0..,,.... ,,,.,,.,, 4........ 0. 210.,.a.3<' 'M 0.63 ,;, ?. _,., ...,.,...s r -'"":I: N,,, U. - 0. 019E. 'p,F Y g. a.7*' E'l.00 JI5YU.,, O 15 ! Non-Flamable Gas .,.*fhf.9.f!. > g.. -. !. * -e.. .m. .q..v t ', ,3;,,..r.,J~ M., [ ~' ~.. f. ;.... ',. c, .;Q8}d Flamable Gas O.94 i~~0.20 0.094 'JYV}.gi ' Flammable Liquid 1.20 3.::.' ~ 0.32 0.110 ut T.h. 5;7 Flammable Solid O.69 0.17 0.058 Oxidizer 1.60 0.66 0.069 Organic Peroxide 1.40 1.40 Toxic ( 1.10 0.43 0.079

_' L Radioactive 3.00 1.30 0.420

.fj Corros'ive 2.50 0.45 0.090** l All Hazardous Material 1.40 0.33 0.086 . ~ ~ ammonia is classified as a non-flammable gas

• • bromine is classified as a corrosive SOURCE: Materials Transportation Board Data 1971-77; Arthur D. Little, Inc., Estimates Excerpted from USDOT FRA/ORD-79/56 (Reference 11) l l

'n l l --3 A - l 1 l

',c . f..w;qq.. T. . t. .:,~;; -35: C ~.,. t. - ~... ....kW).?~

l.

"f'. j.y,, ~ , 7;;yylk ..i.<. .,: p,. ...; f. ',:*.,ps;. ' - "bf , i..%q/..p. [* v..'.-,j.iTABLE 6 (OF IF REPoET DATED [4/8)5 Wl ...,.,%,g & ' G.L*.j;f s 5 *. ' _. j y L'. d-l:g 1.- .j.... ' ?.;,%q[y,

_,9

..w :

-- b ACCIDENT FREQUENCIES PER BILLION TON-MILES

. ~ '. ~ FOR HAZARDOUS MATERIALS COMMODITIES .p .....a.. .:l.:)",145.6 .wf'y.k!'

• ?1

.d[. - ,+ :. ~., =. M, ,,. q.g.g...., ;._ 4. . ~.M e 't.m .. Damage Threshold

...;,'

:,.c...w:.c;.t.::..

{43;.if?d. Q.9;yy!,$:yf.,y,5lp%F. {;.'kl.f, Q.g,. $0 . - = YQ 3 100 ~ > $ 5 5b O '..+ ',I i .+ .. h...."..

1:.- Q:'

.. ~,.. 26.0 13.0 4.30 [ J . Explosives Non-Flam=able Gas 15.0 2.2 0. 2 7 *.'0. g, ,, 7 - %sw. Flnerable Gas 13.0 2.7 1.30 ~

>-n %,.

Flammable Liquid 17.0 4.7 1.60 .G#% ..g-Sw; kih Flammable Solid 11.0 2.9 0.95 C u-w: Oxidizer 21.0 8.8 0.91 if@ct. -ta. ;.o 6-Q Organic Peroxide 17.0 18.0 v., Toxic 18.0 7.3 1.30 .~. g. Radioactive 66.0 28.0 9.40 ... N.d Corrosive 31.0 5.6 1.10** 09: All' Hazardous Material 20.0 4.7 1.20

• ammonia is classified as a non-flammable gas
  • bromine is classified as a corrosive l

SOURCE: Materials Transportation Board Data 1971-77; Arthur D. Little Inc., Estimates Excerpted from USDOT FRA/ORD-79/56 (Reference 11) !h 1 -3B- .f

( BROMINE F(C) = 34 M 1 F(T, = 1340 [))] TRACK SEGMENT / WIND PROBABILITY FACTOR 8 E L(D)

• PW(D) = 0.5769

[ MILES D=1 - RESULTS OF CALCULATIONS RE E RELEASE PROBABILITY T0x!C CAR-MILE TON-MILE MATERIAL BASIS BASIS ANHYDROUS 4.06 x 10-7 4.86 x 10-7 ( AMMONIA BROMINE 1,77 X 10-6 8.50 x 10-7 TOTAL T0xIc 2.18 x 10-6 1.34 x 10-6 HAZARD > EE]a0NSTRATES THAT POTENTIAL RATES OF OCCURRENCE ARE APPROXIMATELY 10-6 OR LESS. L f. ie 4 e

n n: .t.@ ~

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i7.5)7Uf ~ r ( a . a.. (1 =.r f.x 0 Y, N' ' ' TABLE 7 (#F 19 RM09.T DATED +fS3 .-..>..,e .,.. t i..f.. ..,,,.C' 3,. g p,y,6../I L(D) x Pw(D) CALCULATION ~ 4 7,r 4.:-( u.- ...,7 Wind N Track Segment Length Direction Wind Probability

• L(D) x Pw(D)

Segment L(D) (miles)+ D Pw(D) (dimensionless) (miles) s r:. 1 c .h. w tw ......,.w .,LO.2541 7 . -.i-W 0.0770 l.L.Sp.a.in.W.93gcy..a;3.30..., f:id@'-W % . * ; s WNW 0.0792 -0.0713"< Mw.rv. s. "2 m,'t.0.90 m . 0.46 NW 0.0584 0.0268 i.h 3 ..e;g 4. 0.34' NNW 0.0438 0.0149 9 >:. ~g 5 0.35 N 0.0425 0.0149 6 0.45 NNW 0.0405 0.0182.... 7 0.80 NE 0.0528 0.0422 D ( .vf 8 3.10 ENE 0.0434 0.1345 G ~ Total 0.5769 e $ L(D) x Pw(D) = 0.5769 miles + Denotes length of track in wind direction section under consideration 7-(see figure 2)

• Pw(D) = Probability that a wind of any stabili.ty class and any velocity class is blowing toward the control room air intake (from Table 8). -

-4A-

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t i e CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS Tox!c HAZARDS ANALYSIS 1 SCREENING OF CHEMICALS HAZCHEM Tox!C LIMITS PROBABILITY RI$K ASSESSMENT ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT CONSERVATISMS .i 1 ) i .g 6 m v v-y r

t ( i CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS T0XIc HAZARDS ANALYSIS i e SCREENING OF CHEMICALS (COMPREHENSIVE) " HAZARDOUS MATERIALS" - SHIPPING CATEGORY WHICH INCLUDES T0XIC MATERIALS. ALL HAZARDOUS MATERIALS INITIALLY CONSIDERED T0XIC AND THEN EXAMINED INDIVI-DUALL[YTODETERMINEIFACTUALHEALTHHAZARDEXISTS (IN CONTROL ROOM). SHIPPING FREQUENCY - REGULATORY GUIDE 1.78 CRITERIA: HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SHIPPED BY RAIL 30 OR MORE TIMES r PER YEAR. O 1 h e ~. - -...,,,.,,. -w_, y

(: CONSFRVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS T0XIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS i e "HAZCHEM" DIFFUSION ANALYSIS INSTANTANEOUS SPILL OF TOTAL CONTENTS OF TANK CAR - R.G. 1.78 " MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION ACCIDENT". CONTROL ROOM INTAKE MODELED AS DIRECTLY DOWNWIND OF THE POINT OF CHEMICAL RELEASE WITH NO INTERVENING STRUCTURES. FINITE VOLUME " PUFF" RELEASE MODEL. ATMOSPHERIC DILUTION IN APPENDIX B 0F R.G. 1.78. NO CLOUD DIFFUSION IN THE VERTICAL CENTERS PUFF AT THE CONTROL ROOM AIR INTAKE. FOR ALL CHEMICALS CO:4SIDERED THE AMOUNT (TONS) EVALUATED WAS THE MAXIMUM SHIPPING WEIGHT FROM THE CLINTON SURVEY. NOT ALL CARS, OF EACH CHEMICAL SURVEYED, WEIGHED THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT. E.G. BROMINE MAX, SHIPPING WEIGHT = 65 TONS AVG SHIPPING llEIGHT = 39 TONS '1 4 e b.- i J

=_... (: CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS.0XIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS TOXICITY LIMITS i DETAILED LITERATURE SEARCH PERFORMED. ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMITS USED WHERE DATA WAS AVAILABLE. OTHERWISE, TWA OR.2-TLV USED. IN ANY CASE, THE [0XICITYLIMITWASTHENCOMPAREDTOTHEHAZCHEMCALCU-LATED CONCENTRATION TO EVALUATE CONTROL ROOM HABITABILITY. USE OF TWA (FOR LENGTHY EXPOSURES) IS OBVIOUSLY CONSERVATIVE WHEN APPLIED TO ACUTE EXPOSURES (SHORT-TERM). ( 2-TLV: CHEMICAL CONCENTRATION TOLERABLE ON A DAILY BASIS IS TOLERABLE AT 2-TLV FOR AN ACUTE EXPOSURE. COMPARISON WITH KNOWN T0XICITY LIMITS. COMPARISON WITH TAELE C-1 IN R.G. 1.78. 1 L.- -e

44i,

(^ A O, FOR THE FOLLOWING CHEMICALS, BOTH THE ACUTE EXPOSURE LIMITS AND THE TLV ARE KNOWN AND COMPARED: RATIO-ACUTE ACUTE EXPOSURE EXPOSURE CHEMICAL T0XICITY LIMIT TLV, LIMIT: TLV 9 PROPYLENE OXIDE 1500 PPM 100 PPM 15:1 CARBON TETRACHLORIDE 1500 PFM 10 PPM 150:1 CHLOROFORM 2000 PPM 50 PPM 40:1 THE FOLLOWING TOXICITY LIMIT VS. TLV COMPARISONS ARE MADE WITH R.G. 1.78, TABLE C-1: RATIO REGULATORY GUIDE REG. GUIDE CHEMICAL TOXICITY LIMIT, PPM TLV, PPM LIMIT: TLV 1 ACETALDEHYDE 200 200 1:1 ACETONE 2,000 1,000 2:1 ACRYLONITRILE 40 20 2:1 ANHYDROUS AMMONIA 100 50 2:1 ANILINE 10 5 2:1 BENZENE 50 25 2:1 BUTADIENE 1,000 1,000 1:1 BUTENES ASPHYX1 ANT CARBON DIOXIDE 10,000 5,000 2:1 CARBON MONOXIDE '1,000 50 20:1 CHLORINE 15 1 15:1 ETHYL CHLORIDE 10,000 1,000 10:1 ETHYL ETHER 800 400 2:1 ETHYLENE DICHLORIDE 100 50 2:1 ETHYLENE OXIDE 200 50 4:1 FLUORINE 2 0.1 20:1 FORMALDEHYDE 10 5 2:1 HELIUM ASPHYXIANT HYDROGEN "YANIDE 20 10 2:1 HYDROGEN SULFIDE 500 10 50:1 METHANOL 400 200 2:1 NITROGEN ASPHYXIANT (COMPRESSED OR LIQ.) SODIUM OXIDE 2 MG/M3 TLV NOT FOUND SULFUR DIOXIDE 5 5 1:1 SULFURIC ACID 2 MG/M3 1 HG/M3 2:1 . VINYL CHLORIDE 1,000 500 2:1 XULENE 400 100 41

C CONSERVATI'VE BASIS FOR CPS T0XIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS e PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT RELEASE PROBABILITIES' i -TAKEN FROM MATERIALS TRANSPORTATION BOARD DATA, FOR ] DAMAGE THRESHOLDS IN EXCESS OF $5,000. $> NOT ALL RELEASES CAUSING $5,000 DAMAGE ARE MAJOR ' RELEASES (I.E. R.G. 1.78 " MAXIMUM CONCENTRATION ACCIDENTS"). NO CREDIT WAS TAKEN FOR UNSTABLE WINDS. PW(D) INCLUDES PASQUILL STABILITY CATEGORIES A, B, a C. t L _g. m e-- t 7 tw =w r- -'M = 't1 v

~ ( l CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS T0xic HAZARDS ANALYSIS o PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT (CONTINUED) NO CREDIT WAS TAKEN FOR THE EFFECTS OF LAKE. i SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER LAKE SURFACE, DURING NIGHTTIME AND WINTER, THAN SURROUNDING GROUND. $> ADDITIONAL DIFFUSION IN THE VERTICAL OVER LAKE. TANK CAR MODIFICATIONS -RELEASE PROBABILITIES TAKEN FROM DATA BEFORE MODIFICATIONS WERE REQUIRED. -AMMONIA & BROMINE TANK CARS REQUIRED BY FEDERAL LAW (49CFR) TO BE RETROFIT WITH SAFETY FEATURES: 1. HEAD SHIELDS - PUNCTURE RESISTANCE SYSTEM; AAR SAYS 85% REDUCTION IN REL5ASES. FRA SAYS 50% REDUCTION IN RELEASES. AND/OR 2. SHELVES ON COUPLERS - COUPLER RESTRAINT SYSTEM; AAR SAYS 60% REDUCTION IN ACCIDENTS. L 9

( CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS T0XIC flAZARDS ANALYSIS 8 PROBABILITY RISK ASSESSMENT (CONTINUED) -IIATIONAL TRANSPORTATION SAFETY BOARD ACCIDENT STUDY: ANALYSIS OF PAXTON, TEXAS RAIL ACCIDENT. 21 0F 21 SHELF COUPLERS REMAINED COUPLED. IN ANOTHER ACCIDENT 5 CARS EQUIPPFD WITH HEAD SHEILDS AND SHELF COUPLERS REMAINED INTACT. $> ENGINEERING ASSESSMENT: FACTOR OF 2X REDUCTION IN l RELEASE PROBABILITIES PROBABILITY OF OPERATOR INCAPACITATION ( -NUREG/CR-2650 STUDY CONDUCTED BY SANDIA FOR NRC. >> FACTOR OF 10X REDUCTION IN OVERALL ACCIDENT PROBABILITY TO ACCOUNT FOR OPERATOR INCAPACITATION EVENTS N9T RESULTING IN EXCEEDING 10CFR100 RADIOACTIVITY RELEASE GUIDELINES. I l ) k. 11 v -,+w e +

~ 4 i (" ( i e CONCLUSIONS - T0xIC HAZARDS ANALYSIS DETAILED STUDY PERFORMED. R.G. 1.78 CRITERIA APPLIED. INDUSTRY DATA APPLIED. CONSERVATISMS APPLIED. RESULTS ACCEPTABLE AS COMPARED TO NUREG-0800. ADJUSTED PROBABILITIES AFTER APPLICATION ] 0F QUANTIFIED CONSERVATISMS (ACCIDENT REDUCTION) -TANK CAR MODIFICATIONS (2x) -0PERATOR INCAPACITATION (10x) ([ b> CAR-MILE BASIS = 1.09 x 10-7.PER YEAR l> TON-MILE BASIS = 6.7 X 10-8 PER YEAR REALISTIC PROBABILITIES EVEN LESS. i g

TABLE 1 FLAMMABLE COMPRESSED GAS SHIPMENTS OVER THE C ILLINOIS CENTRAL GULF-GILMAN LINE, 12/1/81 to 11/30/82 STCC No. Description of Commodity Carloads Tons 4905702 Butanc (butane, impure for further 9 675 refining) 4905703 Butadiene, inhibited (butadiene, 1 75 impure for further refining) 4905706 Butane 443 31,146 4905707 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (butene gas, 345 24,459 liquefied) 4905711 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (butylene, 13 875 impure for further refining) 4905741 Liquefied Petroleum Gas (NIC) 1 75 4905747 Isobutane 793 57,001 4905748 Isobutylene 1 75 4905750 Isobutane (Isobutane for Curther 8 523 refinery processing) 4905752 Liquefied Petroleum Gas 885 61,816 4905761 Methyl Chl.oride 3 141 { 4905781 Propane 164 11,559 4905782 Propylene 801 57,132 490'5785 Trifluoroc.hlo'roethylene 1 75 4905792 Vinyl Chloride 4 300 Total 3472 245,927 STCC: Standard Transportat. ion Commodity Code NIC: Not in Code - commodity was coded with a STCC number which could nct be identified from the STCC tariff. Commodity was assumed to be of the same f.ac'ily of nearest identifiable commodity by ST.CC, numb.er. l .25- ,n,-- c

l l C TANK CAR STATISTICS 11 9 ACCIDENTS 322,800,000 Calk-MILES PROBABILITY OF TANK CAR ACCIDENT 11 9 1,52 x 10-7 ACCIDEr:Ts/ CAR-MILE = 322,800,000 ( ] (s J' o e e ~

~, DET0!!ATION RATE { LOSS OF LADING DUE TO MECHANICAL DAMAGE: ACCIDENTS: 163 DETONATIONS: 3 YEARS: 13 LOSS OF LADING DUE To f!RE: ACCIDENTS: 49 DETONATIONS: 0 YEARS: 6 PRODABILITY OF DETONATION IF ACCIDENT OCCURS: 3/13 + 0/6 ( = 1.11 x 10-2 DETONATIONS / ACCIDENT 163/13 + 49/6 ( 's [ l

4 EXAMPLE CALCULATIO!! { SEGME!4T: NO. 8 IllflD: STABILITY CLASS D SPEED 1.5 - 3.0 N/SEC (AVE. 7.4 FPS) TIME INTERVAL: 410 SEC. To 610 SEC. AFTER ACCIDENT DISCHARGE RATE: 2667 LB/SEC. ( (

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SAD 408 REV. 0 12/20/82 C N I b D50' PIDI N T O P u %NICRUPTuite-t\\ ? I / SECMENT o LENCaTH =400' N PtM4T f o / Figure 2: Isolated Segment 8 of Railroad Line l L .2 7_ I '"-*aw +,

ce C PROBABILITY OF ACCIDErlT IN SEGMErlT 8 (1.52 x 10-7)(fl00/5280)(31172) = 11 x 10-5 k t J i = e 1 i 4 ( 'u \\ l a e i

r ) = ( ASSllt1ED DISCHARGE RATES OPENIllG DIAMETER, IN DISCHARGERATE,d/sse 23 1/2 2667 14 1/2 A88.9 7 1/2 266.7 4 3/4 ^ 102.6 e e s L l . l l l

1. 8 4

GAS C0tlCE!!TPATION l 2 2 a7) ; u (t-T)< x<ut (4.4) $ (x,y,z) =,,,y exp (- ~ 2 y a 0 x < u (t-T)' and x > ut = where the following symbols are used: gas concentration 3 = gas release rate (ft /sec) Q = wind velocity (ft/sec) C u = distance downwind (f t) x = horizontal distance normal to drift direction y = (f t) vertical distance normal to drif t direction (f t) z = b = dispersion coefficient in horizontal direction (ft) l dispersion coefficient in vertical direction (f t) o = t, time af ter initial rupture (sec) = T = time required for total content of car to be released (sec) (c

SAD 408

• t REV. 0 12/20/82 C

10* - /- I. i i 2 i., i'! t 4. i11 6 i t.. f,, 6 64.#4 i i i.4e.!6 i g 4 'ie i Ig t i ,6 l I e. 10' ). ~, l T 1 f _,,, / / ,,,[f 8 t t f_ l' 2s li '. I l ..l' i 1 e llJ g I I l:,- ,,, a - j. -.,.. e g j l i a I l0' ~ g e z'. 2.Caratuto unsraett _ ( ~ 8-m00tnaf(Lv useStacLE [-. -. / < / C-SuCMfLT ute$7atLE 1 0 - NeutnaL e I !; j g= [ e t - SvCaru stauLt I 7 r-moornat Lv staeLe

• j i*

i l l ./. lY s ,' '+- t r// i .~ f f _s 4 s 80, y / s to 2 5 10 2 2 10* 2' S IC t 8 O'Sfah0g FROM $0WnCE tml Figure 3: Horizontal Dispersion Coefficients 1 ( ( t e

~ SAD 408 REV. 0 12/20/82 C CALCULATION TIMES FCK FLAMMABLE VOLUME AND CENTRolo, SEC. ./ A TIME, MC. O V PROBASILITY OF PETONATION TIME INTERVALS, SEC. Figure 5: Time After Rupture for Calculation of Flammable Volume and Centroid Location Time Intervals for Probability of Detonation Calculation,1600 Second Duration i

SAD 408 .. _ ggy, o 12/20/85 l.4 % { Soo

• O *A y

e 200 ' h '~ ico / FLAMMAsur. r b Soul'G)No r i S4 0 6500 Moo S700 / 3dloo bSco SYMME.TRic AcouT 4 DOWHwlNo pisTANce, it. O w Soo e Figure 6: Ground Level Concentration at 520 seconds Meer Rupture e -31 ,o w

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l i ( TIlin TO DET0flATI0tl PROBABILITY OF DETONATION BETWEEN 1110 AND 610 SECONDS AFTER ACCIDENT EXP(-410/300) - EXP(-610/300) = 0,1241 11EAN TIME TO IGNITION = 300 SEC. e e i e ' ' ~ ' ' -w

( C0 tin!!!ED PROBABILITY PROBABILITY OF AN ACCIDENT IN SEGNENT 8 = PROBABILITY OF UNFAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION =.0079 PROBABILITY OF DETONATION GIVEN AN ACCIDENT = 0.0111 PROBABILITY OF DETONATION IN TIME INTERVAL = 0.1241 (il x 10-5)(0.0079)(0.0111)(0.1241) = 4.35 x 10-10 ( e 6 9 f <L i e

( TOTAL PROBABILITY Np 7 6 MT 16 g,' y)xL(N)xd(S,V,D,I,1 P = P xP(D/R) x F x T~ EF P (S,V,D)xP (T T r y d N=1 S= V=1 l=1 l "; " #'# ' ' " ' ' ' where: P = probability of rupture per tank' mile PTD/R) = probability of detonation (explosion) given a rupture F = frequency of shipment of tanks carrying FCG, in shipments per year probability that wind of stability C-P,(S,V,D) = class S, speed V, and direction D is blowing when detonation cccurs P ( I-l'T ) = probability that detonation oc::urs d y between times T and T, given 1 ~

• that a rupture das occur, fed length of railroad segment N, in miles L(N)

= number of railroad segments considered in WP = - analysis number of detonation time intervals NT = d (S,v,D,I,N) : 1 if overpressure exceeds the one psi =

• criterion for S,V,D,I,N 0.if overpressure does not exceed the one psi

.= ~ criterion l / \\-

• CONTRIBUTIO'! OF EACl! RAILROAD

( SEGMENT TO TOTAL PROBABILITY Duration: 1500 seconds Mean Duration Time: 300 iseconds I Segment Contribution Number (%)- 1 , 1.'0 2 2.9 3 3.9 ~ M 3.3 ~5 ]- 4.0 6 3.4 j .7 5.5 . g 6.4 ~. 9 .6.0 10 1.6 11 12 8.3 C 8.2 13 s 6.6 14.. 5.2 .~ 15 4.8 16 4.2 17 3.5 gg g,4 29 2.8 s 20-N 2.5 21 "

• 2.7 22 2.2

1. '2 23 24 0.7 25 0.4 26 0.3

\\ TOTAL 10 0. 0 - - 2. 3,x 10~7 per year ( 1 1 1

( MAXIMUM PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDIllG 1 PSI AT PLANT DUE TO tat!K CAR ACCIDEt!T 2.3 x 10-7 PER YEAR 1 0 b i L 4 e-n -n. w -.m

({ CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY USED IN COMPLIANCE WITH NUREG-0014. hl0ST DETONATIONS THAT HAVE OCCURRED, HAPPENED AT THE POINT OF GAS RELEASE. FORMATION OF VAPOR CLOUD WHICH DRIFTS.TOWARDS PLANT WITH SUBSEQUENT DETONATION CONSIDERED. JAMES " CODES AND STATISTICS" FOR AAR 81 IGNITIONS 58% 0-50 FT. 18% 50-100 FT. 24% 100-300 FT. NO CREDIT TAKEN FOR DESTABILIZING EFFECT OF LAKE CLINTON. ( p> ADDITIONAL DIFFUSION IN THE VERTICAL OVER LAKE, e ALL TANK CARS ASSUMED TO CARRY PROPANE WITH CONTENTS OF 160,000 IBS. OF FUEL (80 TONS). E.G. LPG CARS WEIGHED 70 TONS AVG. i e L ~v

s. ( CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS e ANALYSIS ASSUMED THAT AS LIQUEFIED GAS ESCAPED, 100% FLASH VAPORIZED. b> NUREG/CR-0075 SAYS ONLY 1/3 WOULD FLASH VAPORIZE IMMEDI ATELY, REMAINDER STAYING AS LIQUID DROPLETS. THIS REMAINDER WOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO EXPLOSIVE HAZARD. NO RISE OF THE PLUME DUE TO BUOYANCY ASSUMED. e EQUIVALENT WEIGHT OF TNT TAKEN AS 240% OF GAS CONTAINED IN CAR. R.G. 1,91 INDICATES 240% REPRESENTS AN UPPER BOUND FOR HYDROCARBONS. e TANK CAR MODIFICATIONS. NO CREDIT TAKEN FOR FEDERALLY MANDATED { SAFETY FEATURES:

1. COUPLER RESTRAINTS

2. TANK HEAD SHIELDS

3. THERMAL PROTECTION SYSTEMS

4. SAFETY RELIEF VALVES

$> 8.T LEAST FACTOR OF 2X REDUCTION IN ACCIDENTS. ( 4 4 n-- ,~ -,.pr m,..e,

C CONSERVATIVE BASIS FOR CPS EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS e EXCEEDING IPSI OVERPRESSURE WILL NOT NECESSARILY RESULT IN RADIOACTIVITY RELEASE, MUCH LESS IN EXCESS OF-10CFR100. e MAXIMUM SAFE OVERPRESSURE FOR CPS IS 1,65 PSI, WHICH IS 1/2 THE TORNADO WIND DESIGN (3.3 PSI). c 4 I i ( l 4 3-S 9 e, c , +,

6 e CONCLUSIONS - EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS DETAILED STUDY PERFORMED R.G. 1,91 CRITERIA APPLIED NUREG-0014 METHODOLOGY UTILIZED INDUSTRY RELEASE DATA APPLIED CONSERVATISMS APPLIED R'ESULTS ACCEPTABLE: > WORST CASE PROBABILITY = 2,3 x 10-7 PER YEAR (LESS THAN 10-6 R.G. 1.91 ACCEPTANCE-CRITERIA). ( 1 l I L i q_ r-- c ,ey---.. -,,,. + - .4.- 7-

l i ..} L-Y ( CONCLUSIONS / CPS REGULATORY COMPLIANCE e T0x!C HAZARDS ANALYSIS CAR-MILE BASIS TON-MILE BASIS ANHYDROUS 4.06 x 10-7 4.86 x 10-7 AMMONIA BROMINE 1.77 X 10-6 8.50 x 10-7 TOTAL T0x!C HAZARD 2.18 x 10-6 1.34 x 10-6 > PROBABILITIES ADJUSTED WITH APPLICATION OF QUANTIFIED ( CONSERVATISMS............... -TANK CAR MODS. (2X REDUCTION) -0PERATOR INCAPACITATION (10X REDUCTION) l I.E. CAR-MILE BASIS = 1.09 x 10-7 TON-MILE BASIS = 6.7 x 10-8 COMPLIES WITH STANDARD REVIEW PLAN (NUREG-0800) AND R. G. 1. 78, I. E. <10-6 L 1-resump i6 m = r- -+-,,-w,s -y 4- .-#+,. y ,r ,ee-

,.A ( CONCLUSIONS / CPS REGULATORY COMPLIANCE e EXPLOSIVE HAZARDS ANALYSIS > WORST-CASE PROBABILITY = 2.3 x 10-7 COMPLIES WITH R.G. 1.91 CRITERIA, I.E. < 10-6 e ISSUE OF TRANSPORTATION ACCIDENTS (SER OUTSTANDING ISSUE #1) ADEOUATELY ADDRESSED AND NO PLANT MODIFICATIONS REQUIRED. ( L, -}}