ML20064K752

Package Consisting of St Lucie & Turkey Point 1992 Preliminary Llnl Hazard Estimates for Peak Acceleration

ML20064K752
Person / Time
Site:	Saint Lucie, Turkey Point
Issue date:	06/08/1993
From:	LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY
To:
Shared Package
ML20064K748	List: ML20064K752
References
FOIA-93-284 NUDOCS 9403230267
Download: ML20064K752 (28)

Text

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Ul ST. LUCIE - 1992 PRELIMINARY LLNL HAZARD ESTIMATES FOR PEAK ACCELERATION f accel best est arithmetic geometric (aal s) mean mean 0.5000E+02 0.7909E-04 0.1470E-03 0.1643E-04 0.7500E+02 0.4349E-04 0.8565E-04 0.8569E-05 0.1500E+03 0.1367E-04 0.3037E-04 0.2539E-05 0.2500E+03 0.4828E-05 0.1263E-04 0.8010E-06 0.3000E+03 0.3147E-05 0.8974E-05 0.5022E-06 t 0.4000E403 0.1493E-05 0.5047E-05 0.2237E-06 0.5000E+03 0.7864E-06 0.3125E-05 0.1106E-06 0.6500E+03 0.3445E-06 0.1711E-05 0.4303E-07 ,

0.8000E+03 0.1695E-06 0.1030E-05 0.1899E-07 '

O.1000E+04 0.7455E-07 0.5790E-06 0.7133E-08 acceleration percentiles 15th 50th 85th '

0.5000E+02 0.2720E-05 0.5210E-04 0.2750E-03 O.7500E+02 0.1250E-05 0.2800E-04 0.1580E-03 0.1500E+03 0.2760E-06 0.7900E-05 0.5640E-04 0.2500E+03 0.6770E-07 0.2360E-05 0.2240E-04 0.3000E+03 0.3780E-07 0.1460E-05 0.1580E-04 0.4000E+03 0.1040E-07 0.6030E-06 0.8310E-05 0.5000E+03 0.3350E-08 0.2920E-06 0.4950E-05 0.6500E+03 0.7440E-09 0.ll50E-06 0.2440E-05 0.8000E+03 0.1930E-09 0.5020E-07 0.1370E-05 1 0.1000E+04 0.4050E-10 0.1780E-07 0.6620E-06  !

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ST LUCIE - 1992 PRELIMINARY LLNL SPECTRAL HAZARD ESTIMATES 1992 SEISMICITY INPUTS 1992 COMPOSITE GROUND MOTION ACROSS EXPERTS .

VARIA8LE IS SPECTRAL VELOCITY -

velocity best estimate arithmetic geometric (cm/seci mean mean frequency 0.1000E401 HZ 0.1000E+01 0.8217E-03 0.1424E-02 0.6187E-03 '

O.5000E+01 0.3596E-04 0.1802E-03 0.2607E-04 0.1500E+02 0.3336E-05 0.3923E-04 0.1243E-05 0.2500E+02 0.1048E-05 0.1868E-04 0.2273E-06 '

O.4000E+02 0.3340E-06 0.9126E-05 0.4111E-07 0.5000E+02 0.1874E-06 0.6400E-05 0.1829E-07 0.6000E+02 0.ll44E-06 0.4751E-05 0.8885E-08 0.7000E+02 0.7402E-07 0.3672E-05 0.4930E-08 .

0.8000E+02 0.4999E-07 0.2924E-05 0.3043E-08 0.2000E+03 0.1979E-08 0.5497E-06 0.8880E-10 frequency 0.2500E+01 0.1000E+01 0.4931E-03 0.2105E-02 0.4460E-03 0.6000E+01 0.2373E-04 0.2300E-03 0.1648E-04 0.1100E+02 0.7045E-05 0.9163E-04 0.3994E-05 .

0.1600E+02 0.3098E-05 0.4952E-04 0.1461E-05 0.2100E+02 0.1649E-05 0.3090E-04 0.6520E-06 +

0.2600E+02 0.9845E-06 0.2102E-04 0.3288E-06 ,

0.3100E+02 0.6344E-06 0.1517E-04 0.1805E-06 0.3600E+02 0.4315E-06 0.1141E-04 0.1054E-06 0.4100E+02 0.3057E-06 0.8869E-05 0.6555E-07  ;

0.2000E+03 0.1320E-08 0.2426E-06 0.7297E-10 frequency 0.5000E401 t 0.5000E+00 0.6273E-03 0.1205E-02 0.4858E-03 ,

0.5500E+01 0.1321E-04 0.8194E-04 0.7915E-05 0.1050E+02 0.3151E-05 0.3189E-04 0.1441E-05 0.1550E+02 0.1195E-05 0.1687E-04 0.4050E-06  ;

0.2050E+02 0.5681E-06 0.1030E-04 0.1458E-06 '

O.2550E+02 0.3081E-06 0.6842E-05 0.6045E-07 0.3050E+02 0.1818E-06 0.4815E-05 0.2801E-07 0.3550E+02 0.ll38E-06 0.3533E-05 0.1420E-07 0.4050E+02 0.7433E-07 0.2676E-05 0.8186E-08 0.2000E+03 0.3957E-10 0.4526E-07 0.5601E-ll ,

frequency 0.1000E+02 0.5000E+00 0.2358E-03 0.4711E-03 0.1649E-03 0.2500E+01 0.2109E-04 0.5352E-04 0.ll31E-04 0.4500E+01 0.6713E-05 0.1966E-04 0.2926E-05 0.6500E+01 0. 2914 E-05 0.9752E-05 0.1037E-05 0.8500E401 0.1495E-05 0.5618E-05 0.4317E-06 0.1050E+02 0.8546E-06 0.3548E-05 0.1997E-06 0.1250E+02 0.5273E-06 0.2386E-05 0.9959E-07 3 0.1450E+02 0.3440E-06 0.1680E-05 0.5508E-07 1 0.1650E+02 0.2341E-06 0.1226E-05 0.3089E-07'  !

0.1850E+03 0.1418E-ll 0.3765E-09 0.1274E-11 frequency 0.2500E402 0.2000E+00 0.2819E-03 0.5335E-03 0.1921E-03 i

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w 0.2200E+01 0.8123E-05 0.2088E-04 0.2495E-05 0.4200E+01 0.1372E-05 0.5880E-05 0.1621E-06 0.6200E+01 0.4006E-06 0.2390E-05 0.1773E-07 0.8200E+01 0.1519E-06 0.ll78E-05 0.2540E-08 0.1020E+02 0.6481E-07 0.6572E-06 0.5696E-09 0.1220E+02 0.2912E-07 0.4004E-06 0.1711E-09 0.1420E+02 0.1328E-07 0.2604E-06 0.5863E-10 0.1620E+02 0.6059E-08 0.1779E-06 0.2435E-10 0.1820E+03 0.1000E-19 0.7589E-12 0.1000E-11 UNIFORM HAZARD VELOCITY SPECTRA frequency best estimate arithmetic geometric mean mean return period 0.5000E+03 YR 0.1000E+01 0.6571E+00 0.7841E+00 0.6342E400 0.2500E+01 0.4557E+00 0.1042E+01 0.4694E+00 0.5000E+01 0.2591E+00 0.3307E+00 0.2411E+00 0.1000E+02 0.1334E+00 0.1846E+00 0.1281E+00 0.2500E+02 0.6525E-01 0.8239E-01 0.7356E-01 return period 0.1000E+04 0.1000E+01 0.9250E+00 0.1317E+01 0.8608E+00 0.2500E+01 0.6766E+00 0.1826E+01 0.6713E+00 0.5000E+01 0.3892E+00 0.5903E+00 0.3501E+00 0.1000E+02 0.2061E+00 0.3002E+00 0.1883E+00 0.2500E+02 0.9868E-01 0.1331E+00 0.1010E+00 return period 0.2000E404 0.1000E+01 0.1291E+01 0.2259E+01 0.lll4E+01 0.2500E+01 0.1005E+01 0.3200E+01 0.9600E+00 0.5000E+01 0.5756E+00 0.1096E+01 0.5083E+00 0.1000E+02 0.3184E+00 0.4881E+00 0.2768E+00 0.2500E+02 0.1492E+00 0.2098E+00 0.1387E+00 return period 0.5000E+04 0.1000E+01 0.2068E+01 0.4611E+01 0.1775E+01 0.2500E+01 0.1704E+01 0.6578E+01 0.1546E401 0.5000E+01 0.1017E+01 0.2481E+01 0.8384E400 0.1000E+02 0.5580E+00 0.9425E+00 0.4606E+00 0.2500E+02 0.2522E+00 0.4133E+00 0.2110E400 return period 0.1000E405 0.1000E+01 0.2954E+0'. 0.7644E+01 0.2525E+01 0.2500E+01 0.2566E+01 0.1038E+02 0.2253E+01-0.5000E+01 0.1564EvC1 0.4605E+01 0.1255E+01 0.1000E+02 0.8858E+00 0.1574E+01 0.6752E+00 0.2500E+02 0.4030E+00 0.6903E+00 0.2868E+00

9 UNIFORM HAZARD VELOCITY SPECTRA frequency percentiles 15 50 85 return period 0.5000E+03 yr 1.00 0.469E+00 0.664E+00 0.136E+01 2.50 0.274E+00 0.507E+00 0.124E+01 5.00 0.149E+00 0.241E+00 0.571E+00 10.00 0.782E-01 0.142E+00 0.305E+00 25.00 0.540E-01 0.715E-01 0.135E+00 return period 0.1000E+04 1.00 0.586E+00 0.908E+00 0.223E+01 2.50 0.361E+00 0.729E+00 0.212E+01 5.00 0.200E+00 0.357E+00 0.104E+01 10.00 0.107E+00 0.209E+00 0.486E+00 25.00 0.689E-01 0.102E+00 0.206E+00 return period 0.2000E404 1.00 0.731E+00 0.120E+01 0.366E+01 2.50 0.475E+00 0.103E+01 0.363E+01 5.00 0.267E+00 0.516E+00 0.189E+01 10.00 0.146E+00 0.309E+00 0.776E+00 25.00 0.878E-01 0.145E+00 0.337E+00 return period 0.5000E+04 1.00 0.979E+00 0.193E+01 0.679E+01 2.50 0.684E+00 0.172E+01 0.709E+01 '

5.00 0.391E+00 0.894E+00 0.416E+01 10.00 0.221E+00 0.509E+00 0.148E+01 25.00 0.121E+00 0.222E+00 0.643E+00 return period 0.1000E+05 1.00 0.117E+01 0.276E401 0.106E+02 2.50 0.900E+00 0.255E+01 0.110E+02 5.00 0.514E+00 0.136E+01 0.684E+01 .

10.00 0.303E+00 0.770E+00 0.242E+01 25.00 0.155E+00 0.335E+00 0.105E+01  ;

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for best estimate of hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.33 3.03 0.246E-05 '

1.00 1.00 0.432E-05 l 1.57 0.60 0.627E-05 2.50 0.40 0.102E-04 i 3,30 0.30 0.ll3E-04 i 5.00 0.20 0.169E-04 12.50 0.08 0.424E-04 25.00 0.04 0.505E-04 for 15.0 percentile hazard I freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.33 3.03 0.771E-08 '

1.00 1.00 0.460E-07 l.67 0.60 0.110E-06 2.50 0.40 0.280E-06 3.30 0.30 0.353E-06 5.00 0.20 0.630E-06 12.50 0.08 0.267E-05 25.00 0.04 0.269E-05 for 50.0 percentile hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.33 3,03 0.849E-06 1.00 1.00 0.227E-05 1.67 0.60 0.400E-05 2.50 0.40 0.781E-05 3.30 0.30 0.888E-05 5.00 0.20 0.125E-04 12.50 0 08 0.296E-04 25.00 0.04 0.337E-04 for 85.0 percentile hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.33 3.03 0.487E-04 1.00 1.00 0.695E-04 1.67 0.60 0.911E-04 2.50 0.40 0.134E-03 3.30 0.30 0.139E-03 5.00 0.20 0.173E-03 12.50 0.08 0.181E-03 25.00 0.04 0.201E-03 for arithmetic mean estimates of hazard >

freq(hz) period (s) prob, of exceedance 0.33 3.03 0.232E-04 1.00 1.00 0.463E-04 1.67 0.60 0.719E-04 2.50 0.40 0.121E-03 3.30 0-.30 0.106E-03 5.00 0.20 0.973E-04 12.50 0.08 0.987E-04 25.00 0.04 0.lllE-03  :

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.' l-t TURKEY POINT - 1992 PRELIMINARY LLNL HAZARD ESTIMATES FOR PEAK ACCELERATION acceleration best est arithmetic geometric (cals) mean mean 0.5000E+02 0.7908E-04 0.1227E-03 0.1845E-04  ;

0.7500E+02 0.4431E-04. 0.7052E-04 0.9842E-05 >

0.1500E+03 0.1415E-04 0.2361E-04 0.2860E-05 0.2500E+03. 0.4963E-05 0.8904E-05 0.9740E-06 0.3000E+03 0.3213E-05 0.6013E-05 0.6128E-06 0.4000E+03 0.1501E-05 0.3074E-05 0.2584E-06.

015000E+03 0.7774E-06 0.1750E-05 0.1242E-06 0.6500E+03 0.3321E-06 0.8616E-06 0.4626E-07 0.8000E+03 0.1596E-06 0.4751E-06 0.1941E-07 0.1000E+04 0.6828E-07 0.2425E-06 0.6768E-08 acceleration percentiles 15th 50th 85th 0.5000E+02 0.3120E-05 0.5140E-04 0.2530E-03 0.7500E+02 0.1680E-05 0.2770E-04 0.1430E-03 0.1500E+03 0.4660E-06 0.7780E-05 0.4600E-04 0.2E00E+03 0.ll80E-06 0.2340E-05 0.1690E-04 0.3000E+03 0.6450E-07 0.1420E-05 0.ll50E-04 0.4000E+03 0.2410E-07 0.5850E-06 0.5670E-05 '

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TURKEY POINT - 1992 PRELIMINARY LLNL SPECTRAL HAZARD ESTIMATES 1992 SEISMICITY INPUTS 1992 COMPOSITE GROUND MOTION ACROSS EXPERTS YARIABLE IS SPECTRAL VELOCITY velocity best estimate arithmetic geometric (cm/sec) mean mean frequency 0.1000E+01 HZ 0.1000E+01 0.1648E-03 0.3957E-03 0.1462E-03 0.5000E+01 0.8434E-05 0.5425E-04 0.3995E-05' O.1500E+02 0.8325E-06 0.1209E-04 0.1289E-06 0.2500E+02 0.2397E-06 0.5402E-05 0.1952E-07 0.4000E+02 0.6661E-07 0.2366E-05 0.2923E-08 0.5000E+02 0.3416E-07 0.1549E-05 0.1191E-08 0.6000E+02 0.1910E-07 0.1079E-05 0.5496E-09 0.7000E+02 0.1136E-07 0.7853E-06 0.2754E-09 0.8000E+02 0.7083E-08 0.5916E-06 0,1618E-09 0.2000E+03 0.1365E-09 0.6767E-07 0.8581E-ll frequency 0.2500E+01 0.1000E+01 0.2270E-03 0.7140E-03 0.1680E-03 ,

0.1146E-04 0.7669E-04 0.5994E-05 0.6000E+01 O.1100E+02 0.3157E-05 0.2862E-04 0.1274E-05 0.1600E+02 0.1313E-05 0.1454E-04 0.4180E-06 0.2100E+02 0.6673E-06 0.8622E-05 0 1707E-66 0.2600E+02 0.3818E-06 0.5618E-05 0.,993E-07 0.3100E+02 0.2364E-06 0.3902E-05 0.4165E-07 0.3600E+02 0.1547E-06 0.2837E-05 0.2299E-07 0.4100E+02 0.1056E-06 0.2136E-05 0.1339E-07 0.2000E+03 0.2155E-09 0.3590E-07 0.1355E-10 '

frequency 0.5000E+01

, 0.5000E+00 0.4544E-03 0.6725E-03 0.3015E-03 0.5500E+01 0.1070E-04 0.4282E-04 0.5559E-05 t 0.1050E+02 0.2434E-05 0.1514E-04 0.3653E-06 i 0.1550E+02 0.8846E-06 0.7460E-05 0.2607E-06 ,

0.2050E+02 0.4047E-06 0.4300E-05 0.8970E-07 0.2550E+02 0.2118E-06 0.2724E-05 0.3534E-07 '

0.3050E+02 0.~'10E-06 0.1841E-05 0.1581E-07 O.3550E+02 0. '4 E-07 0.1305E-05 0.7526E-08 ,

0.4050E+02 0.*o64E-07 0.9593E-06 0.3914E-08 0.2000E+03 0.1663E-10 0.ll33E-07 0.3495E-ll ,

frequency 0.1000E+02 O.5000E+00 0.2795E-03 0.4045E-03 0.1708E-03 0.2500E+01 0.3000E-04 0.5070E-04 0.1440E-04 ,

0.4500E+01 0.1027E-04 0.1874E-04 0.4268E-05 l 0.6500E+01 0.4648E-05 0.9243E-05 0.1681E-05 0.8500E+01 0.2440E-05 0.5287E-05 0.7647E-06 0.1050E+02 0.1412E-05 0.3321E-05 0.3823E-06 0.1250E+02 0.8777E-06 0.2228E-05 0.2047E-06  !

0.1450E+02 0.5754E-06 0.1570E-05 0.ll55E-06 0.1650E+02 0.3933E-06 0.1149E-05 0.6802E-07 0.1850E+03 0.4841E-Il 0.5764E-09 0.2039E-ll i frequency 0.2500E+02 0.2000E+00 0.3086E-03 0.4286E-03 0.1827E-03 o

~

0.1064E-04 0.1508E-04 0.3428E-05 0.2200E+01 O.4200E+01 0.1870E-05 0.3319E-05 0.2710E-06 0.6200E+01 0.5197E-06 0.1143E-05 0.2470E-07 0.8200E+01 0.1927E-06 0.5235E-06 0.3286E-08 0.1020E+02 0.8176E-07 0.2830E-06 0.5475E-09 L 0.1220E+02 0.3748E-07 0.1694E-06 0.1259E-09 0.1420E+02 0.1792E-07 0.1086E-06 0.3849E-10 0.1620E+02 0.8727E-08 0.7304E-07 0.1490E-10  :

0.1820E+03 0.1000E-19 0.1316E-13 0.1000E-11 UNIFORM HAZARD VELOCITY SPECTRA frequency best estimate arithmetic geometric mean mean return period 0.5000E+03 YR 0.1000E+01 0.2837E+00 0.2883E+00 0.3839E+00 0.2500E+01 0.2951E+00 0.4676E+00 0.2963E+00 0.5000E+01 0.2124E+00 0.2096E+00 0.1842E+00 0.1000E+02 0.1350E+00 0.1597E+00 0.ll51E+00 .

0.2500E+02 0.6565E-01 0.7664E-01 0.6537E-01 return period 0.1000E+04 0.1000E+01 0.4051E+00 0.4945E+00 0.5028E+00 0.2500E+01 0.4379E+00 0.7906E+00 0.4194E+00 0.5000E+01 0.3212E+00 0.3701E+00 0.2692E+00  ;

0.1000E+02 0.2157E+00 0.2644E+00 0.1752E+00 0.2500E+02 0.1012E+00 0.1201E400 0.9232E-01 ,

return period 0.2000E+04 0.1000E+01 0.5786E+00 0.8485E+00 0.6584E+00 O.2500E+01 0.6498E+00 0.1331E+01 0.5935E+00 >

0.5000E+01 0.4857E+00 0.6472E+00 0.3934E+00 0.1000E+02 0.3447E+00 0.4377E+00 0.2668E+00 0.2500E+02 0.1559E+00 0.1883E+00 0.1304E+00 return period 0.5000E+04 0.1000E+01 0.9268E+00 0.1738E+01 0.9403E+00 0.2500E+01 0.1079E+01 0.2779E+01 0.9393E+00 .

0.5000E+01 0.8451E+00 0.1437E+01 0.6398E+00 0.1000E+02 0.6365E+00 0.8630E+00 0.465]E+00 0.2500E+02 0.2723E+00 0.3453E+00 0.2057E+00 return period 0.1000E+05 ,

0.1000E+01 0.1311E+01 0.3047E+01 0.ll85E401 0.2500E+01 0.1635E+01 0.4848E+01 0.1322E+01 0.5000E+01 0.1317E+01 0.2628E+01 0.9700E+00 0.1000E+02 0.1049E+01 0.1477E+01 0.7085E+00 l 0.2500E+02 0.4461E+00 0.5674E+00 0.2877E+00 5

UNIFORM HAZARD VELOCITY SPECTRA frequency percentiles 15 50 85 return period 0.5000E+03 yr l.00 0.325E+00 0.381E+00 0.573E+00 2.50 0.188E+00 0.305E+00 0.620E+00 5.00 0.ll7E+00 0.216E+00 0.366E+00 10.00 0.643E-01 0.142E+00 0.259E+00 -

25.00 0.374E-01 0.763E-01 0.122E+00 ,

return period 0.1000E+04 1.00 0.394E+00 0.503E+00 0.925E400 2.50 0.246E+00 0.433E+00 0.101E+01 5 00 0.157E+00 0.314E+00 0.611E+00 10.00 0.912E-01 0.214E+00 0.429E+00 25.00 0.502E-01 0.108E+00 0.190E+00 return period 0.2000E404 1.00 0.478E+00 0.665E+00 0.149E+01 2.50 0.321E+00 0.613E+00 0.177E+01 5.00 0.212E+00 0.456E+00 0.108E401 10.00 0.129E+00 0.324E+00 0.711E+00 25.00 0.675E-01 0.154E+00 0.294E+00 return period 0.5000E404 1.00 0.616E400 0.961E+00 0.289E401 '

2.50 0.458E+00 0.973E+00 0.374E+01 ,

5.00 0.313E+00 0.746E+00 0.230E+01 10.00 0.205E+00 0.552E+00 0.146E+01 25.00 0.997E-01 0.236E+00 0.569E+00 return period 0.1000E405 1.00 0.747E+00 0.124E+01 0.478E+01 2.50 0.598E+00 0.138E+01 0.639E+01 '

5.00 0.421E+00 0.ll3E+01 0.407E+01 10.00 0.291E+00 0.859E+00 0.252E+01 +

25.00 0.134E+00 0.359E+00 0.939E+00 8

I l

probabilities of exceedance of design spectrum for best estimate of hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.30 3.33 0.109E-06 1.00 1.00 0.397E-06 i

2.00 0.50 0.127E-05 '

4.00 0.25 0.330E-05 7.00 0.14 0.985E-05 10.00 0.10 0.226E-04 14.00 0.07 0.328E-04  ;

33.00 0.03 0.363E-04  !

for 15.0 percentile hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.30 3.33 0.211E-11 1.00 1.00 0.271E-09 2.00 0.50 0.683E-08 4.00 0.25 0.578E-07 7.00 0.14 0.345E-06 10.00 0.10 0.ll3E-05 14.00 0.07 0.175E-05 33.00 0.03 0.173E-05 for 50.0 percentile hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance O.30 3.33 0.386E-08 1.00 1.00 0.587E-07 2.00 0.50 0.414E-06 4.00 r '5 0.158E-05 7.00 0.14 0.579E-05 l 10.00 0.10 0.136E-04 14.00 0.07 0.198E-04 ,

33.00 0.03 0.212E-04 i' for 85.0 percentile hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance 0.30 3.33 0.652E-05 i 1.00 1.00 0.978E-05 2.00 0.50 0.186E-04 I 4.00 0.25 0.305E-04 I 7.00 0.14 0.469E-04 )

10.00 0.10 0.769E-04 )

14.00 0.07 0.102E-03 '

33.00 0.03 0.102E-03 for arithmetic mean estimates of hazard freq(hz) period (s) prob. of exceedance l 0.30 3.33 0.452E-05 1.00 1.00 0.749E-05 2.00 0.50 0.148E-04 4.00 0.25 0.218E-04 I 7.00 0.14 0.268E-04 10.00 0.10 0.390E-04 14.00 0.07 0.508E-04 33.00 0.03 0.499E-04

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