ML20058J855
| ML20058J855 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Perry  |
| Issue date: | 08/09/1982 |
| From: | Hiatt S OHIO CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8208120145 | |
| Download: ML20058J855 (23) | |
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' UNITED STATES OF Af* ERICA 6"
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION g.g Before the Atomic Safety and Licensing Bo d
/
In the Matter of
)
0FF 6 SER
)
00CKI kca CLEVELAND ELECTRIC ILLUMINATING
)
Docket Nos. 50-4 0 COMPANY, Et A1.
)
50-441
)
(Operating License)
(Perry Nuclear Power Plant,
)
i Units 1 and 2)
)
)
OHIO CITIZENS FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY MOTION FOR LEAVE TO FILE ITS CONTENTION 20 Ohio Citizens for Responsible Energy ("0CRE") hereby moves the Licensing Board to grant OCRE leave to supplement further its Petition to Intervene by filing its Contention 20, entitled " Inadequate Consideration of Economic Consequences of Accidents," in the above-captioned proceeding.
OCRE contends that the Draft Environmental Statement for Perry, NUREG-0884, is deficient because it has failed to in-clude an assessment of the economic and societal disruption which would occur as a result of an accident at PNPP.
That these consequences would be severe is shown by a recently-issued report, " Estimating the Potential Impacts of a Nuclear Reactor Accident," NUREG/CR-2591, prepared by the Department of Commerce O ^O CD ES for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
This report evaluates the industrial impact of an accide6t at a number of reactors, including Perry.
The portion of the report specifically devoted um gg to Ferry is attached herewith, om
$$8 Briefly summarized, the study postulated an SST1 accident zo at Perry with the wind blowing toward the southwest.
(SSTl stands for Siting Source Term 1, an accident category further defined in NUREG-0771 and is essentially a Class 9 accident.)
\\
' 1 The consequences of this scenario include the loss of 288,000 jobs, the loss of all industries, including agriculture, out to 21 miles for over a year, the loss of agricultural production for one year out to 271 miles, and loss in dairy output for two months out to 298 miles.
These losses could seriously weaken the larger American economy, as many of the industries affected by an accident at Perry are substantial components of the total U.S. production output.
The DES in Section 5.9.4.1.4.4 gives only a cursory description of economic impacts of accidents.
These impacts consist of estimated costs of offsite mitigating actions.
Surely this abbreviated summary in the DES does not meet the standard of the " detailed statement" required by the National Environmental Policy Act (42 USC 4332 (2) (C)), especially-in light of the more thorough evaluation in N REG /CR-2591.
NEPA requires the NRC to consider these consequences in the cost-l benefit balance for Perry.
Late Filing Requirements Under 10 CFR 2.714 OCRE has met the requirements for late filing of contentions enume rate d in.10 CFR 2. 714(a ) ( 1).
This contention is based on NUhEG/CR-2591, published in April of this year and just recently 3
obtained by OCRE.
Thus there exists good cause for the late filing of Contention 20.
No other means are availtble by which OCRE can protect its interests, nor are any other parties pursuing this issue.
Commenting,on the DES is not seen by OCRE as an l
effective means by which to address significant matters.
,~.
_3_
That OCHEi s participation will aid in the development of a sound record has been affirmed by the Licensing Board (Memo-i randum and Order of July 12, 1982, LBP-82-53, at 5).
While the admission of this contention might delay this proceeding, any such delay would not adversely affect any party.
Applicants, l
the only party to whom delay might be a serious concern, are apparently in no hurry (LBP-82-53 at 5).
These factors thus t
favor the admission of Contention 20 into this proceeding.
1 Respectfully submitted,
%W I
Susan L. Hiatt OCRE Representative 8275 Munson Rd.
Mentor, OH 44060 (216) 255-3158 l
l I
i i
NUREG/ CR-2591 b;( 22 i
Es '. mat.Inc
- le D O":en : a m asc :s o-a
\\ ;c ear Reac:or Acc'c"e~:
Methodology and Case Studies Prepared by J. V. Cartwright, R. M. Beemiller, E. A. Trott, Jr., J. M. Younger j
U.S. Department of Commerce Prepared for i
U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission b
l
.. r
Chapter 7 PERRY NUCLEAR REACTOR The industrial impact model used to estimate the private-sector effects of a hypothetical accident at the Perry nuclear reactor indicates that the total employment losses in all industries directly affected by the accident could be 288,000 (5.3 percent of the total employment in the economic area surrounding thePerryreactorsite).
In addition to large direct effects in local service-type industries, major impacts could occur in both durable goods and nondurable goods manufacturing.
Moreover, impacts associated with a decrease in tourist activity could total an additional 27,000 annual jobs, primarily in eating and drinking places, and in hotels and other lodging places.
Finally, the model indicates that more than 20,000 annual jobs in the contract construction, nonelectrical machinery, and motor vehicles are vulnerable to the decreased availability of electrical machinery inputs.
Economic Profile Population and earnings, 1969-78 On July 1, 1978, the population of the study areaM was 13.9 million, up 2.4 percent since July 1, 1969 (tables 7..I and 7.2).
Concurrently, the population of the United States increased three-and-one-half times faster.
In l
l 1969, the study area's per capita income was $4,250, 103 percent 'of the U.S.
per capita income.E In 1978, it was $5,220, almost the same as nationally.
- 1. The study area consists primarily of the State of Ohio, plus four adjacent BEA economic areas located in Indiana:
075, South Bend; 077, Kokomo-Marion; 078, Anderson-Muncie; and 079, Indianapolis.
Ohio accounts for nearly four-fifths of the total population of the study area.
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- 2. All per capita income and earnings are expressed in 1972 dollars.
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Tcbla 7.1..-Population, Parsonal Income, f arnings, and fepinyment, 1969, 1978, tnd Projected 1985-2000 Perry Study Area l
1969 1978 1985*
1990*
2000*
Population, July 1 (thousands) 13.572 13,892 14,350 14,732 15,204 (allitons of 1972 dollars)
Total personal income (place of residence) 57,693 72,520 93,308 109,021 139.120 f arnings (place of work) 48,658 58,013 75,272 88,043 112,799 Tara 854 808 1,014 1,108 1,340 Nonfars 47,804 57,205 74,258 86,935 111.459 Private 42,240 50,228
'65,756 77.173 99,176 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and other 105 131 164 188 230 Mining-254 498 852 1.C45 1,326 Construction 3,240 3,035 3,933 4,578 5,859 Manufacturing 20,167 23.129 29,286 33,764 42,221 Nondurable goods 5,106 5.586 6.852 7,825 9,622 Durable goods 15,061 17,542 22,433 25.939
.32,599 Transportation, comunication, and utt11 ties 3,094 4.042 5,289 6,271 8,247 Wholesale trade 2,51$
3,361 4.344 4,998 6,277 Retail trade 4.971 5,530 7,047 8.119 10,165 Finance, insurance, and real co estate 2,035 2,513 3,502 4,220 5,658 N
Services 5,859 7,989 11,340 13,989 19,193
- Government 5,564 6,977 8,502 9,762 12,283 Federal civilian 1,386 1,492 1,776 1,986 2.417 Federal allitary 323 246 286 321 392 State and local 3,855 5,238 6,440 7.454 9,474 (t.housands of jobs)
Total emplopent (place of work) 5.786 6,355 7,089 7,396 7,671 Fars 118 120 112 109 106 Nonfara 5.669 6,235 6.977 7,288 7,565 Private 4,840 5.299 5,987 6,279 6,545 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and other 17 22 24 25 25 Mining 23 33 46 49 48 Construction 294 297 340 351 364 Manufacturing 1,943 1,845 1,987 2,031 2,043 Nondurable goods 531 509 537 546 548 Durable goods 1,412 1,337 1.450 1,485 1,496 Transportation, comunication, and utilities 298 304 331 343 357 Wholesale trade 240 300 338 350 362 Retail trade 883 1,045 1,191 1.254 1,308 Finance, insurance, and real estate 227 279 341 366 393 Services 915 1,173 1,390 1,508 1.645 Government 828 935 990 1,009 1,020 Federal civillan 133 116 118 118 117 Federal allitary 91 66 65 65 65 State and local 604 753 806 826 837
- Projected years are from OefRS Scenario 11, F0l[: Details may not add to totals because of rounding.
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I 1969 2000 Tatie 7.2.-Population. Personal Income. farnings, and Esplejuent. Percent Chaeges. Selected Years.
Perry Study Area 1969 78 19f8-85* '
1985 2000*
Percent Relative Percent Relative Percent Relative change to U.S.
change to U.S.
change to U.S.
Population,.luly 1 2.36 28.37 3.30 50.30 5.95 50.25 Totalpersonalincome(place of residence) 25.70
.70 28.66
.93 49.10
.87 farnings(placeofwork) 19.23
.65 29.75
.95 49.85
.88 Fars
.$.42
. 43 25.48 2.92.
32.12 1.32 konfars 19.67
.66 29.81
.93 50.10
.87 Private 18.92
.64 30.91
.93 50.55
.87 Agricultural services, forestry, fisheries, and other 24.64 45 24.81
.78 40.22
.75 Minin9 95.92
.95 71.20 1.46 55.67 -
1.15 Construction 6.32
. 28 29.60 -
.91 48.96
.85 i
Manufacturtag 14.69
.81 26.62
.90 44.17
.84 Nondueable goods 9.41
.70 22.66
.94 40.42
.85 Durable gr.cos 16.47
.80 27.88
.85 45.31
.33 Transportation, comunication, and uttittles 30.65 76 30.84 g
.94 55.94
.94 Wholesale trade 33.67
.81 29.24
.94 44.50
.89 i
Seta11 trade 11.25
.54 27.42
.93 44.25
.84 Finance, insurance, and real estate 23.46
.60 39.36 1.00 61.56
.95 Services 36.34
.82 41.94
.99 69.26
.93 Government 25.40
.87 21.87 1.00 44.46
.93 Federal civillan 7.65
.35 15.99
.88 36.13
.83 Federal military-23.63 1.61 ~ ~
16.17 1.00 36.87 1.00 State and loc 41-35.89
.84 22.95 1.01 47.10
.93 Total employment (place of work) 9.83
.53 11.55
.84 8.21
.59 Fars 2.03
.26
' 6.44
.77 5.67
.54 honfare 9.99 _
.52 11.90
.83, 8.43
.58 l
Private 9.49 49 12.97
.86 9.33
.62 Agricultural services, forestry.
I fisheries, and other 29.19
.52 9.09
.62 5.18
.35 Mining 39.06
.95
- 39.62 1.87 6.12 3.92 Construction
.92
.04 14.34
.87 7.09
.63 Manufacturing 5.03
-2.84 7.68
.73 2.84
.29 hondurable 9eods 4.15
-11.53 5.56
.83 2.03
.27 Curable gocos 5.36 1.65 8.48
.65 3.14
.28 l
Transoortation, comunication, and utttttles 2.16
.19 8.67
.86 7.79
.77 Wholesale trade 25.13
.77 12.69
.80 7.04
.58 Retail trade 18.38
.66 13.99
.66 9.82
.58 Finance, insurance and real estate 23.19
.68 21.99
.92 15.27
.75 Services 28.24
.85 18.42
.90 18.38
.78 j-Government 12.92
.93 5.83
.84 3.02
.39 Federal civtitan
-12.55 20.24 1.39
.39
. 59
.15 Federal military 28.23
.99
.39 1.03
.00 1.00 State and local 24.78
.76 7.06
.78 3.79
.29
- Projected years are from OBERS Scenario 11.
NOTE: Percent changes and relatives are calculated from rounded data.
From 1969 to 1978, total earnings increased only 19.2 percent in the area, compared with 29.4 percent nationally.,During the 9-year period, area earnings for all industries grew at less than national' rates, with the exception of Federal military earnings, which increased 61 percent more than the Nation.
In 1978, area earnings totaled 558.0 billion, or 6.6 percent of the U.S. total earnings.
Among the area's various industries in 1969, durable goods manufacturing registeredthelargestlocationquotient(LQ)--1.70--reflecting.theexportbase in durable goods products (table 7.3).M In 1969, durable goods manufacturing accounted for 31.0 percent of the study area's total earnings.
The LQ for nondurable goods manufacturing, which accounted for 10.5 percent of total earnings, was 1.00.
The only other industry with an above-average share (relative to the Nation) was contruction, with an LQ of 1.05 and accounting for 6.7 percent of total area earnings.
Retail trade, which accounted for 10.2 percent -of total earnings, registered an LQ of.96, and services, at 12.0 percent of total earnings, registered an LQ of.80.
Total government earnings accounted for 11.4 percent of total earnings, and State and local government earnings, for 7.9 percent; LQ's were.69 and.80, respectively.
In
- 1978, the same situation generally prevailed, with two major
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exceptions.
Durables goods manufacturing earnings increased their LQ to 1.78, while maintaining a percent Share of.otal earnings close to what it had been in 1969. Construction earnings, however, registered a decline to 5.2 percent with an LQ of.86; from 1969 to 1978, construction earnings increased by 6.3 percent, only one-fourth the national rate.
- 3. An earnings (or employment) LQ is the percent of total area earnings (or employment) originating in an industry divided by the percent of national earnings (or employment) originating in the same industry.
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Table 7.3.--Earnings and Imploy ent. Percent Olstributions, and location Quotients. 1969. 1978, and Projected 1985-2000 Perry Study Area 1969 1978 1985*
1990*
2000*
Percent Percent Percent Percent Percent distribution LQ distribution LQ distribution LQ distribution tQ distribution LQ s.
EarrMogs (place of work) 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 Fare 1.76
.61 1.39
.55 1.35
.65 1.26
.67 1.19
.72 Nonfere 98.24 1.01 98.61 1.01 98.65 1.01 98.74 1.01 98.81 1.00 frivate.
86.81 1.04 86.81 1.04 87.35 1.03 87.65 1.03 87.92 1.03 Agricultural services. forestry, fisheries 'and other
.22
.63
.23
.56
.22
.52
.21
.51
.20
.49 Mining
.52
.52
.86
.55 1.13
.64 1.19
.67 1.18
.71 s
Construction 6.66 1.05 5.23
.86 5.23
.85 5.20
.85 5.19
.84 Manufacturing 41.45 1.44 3f.87 1.52 38.91 1.50 38.35 1.50 37.43 1.49 Nondurable goods 10.49 1.00 9.63 1.04 9.10 1.04 8.89 1.04 8.53 1.04 Durable goods 30.95 I.70 30.24 1.78 29.80 1.74 29.46 1.72 28.90 1.70
. Transportation, comunication, and uttittles 6.36
.90 6.97
.91 7.03
.91 7.12
.91 7.31
.93 Wholesale trade 5.17
.86 5.79
.88 5.77
.88 5.68
.88 5.57
.89 Retail trade 10.22
.96 9.53
.95 9.36
.95 9.22
.95 9.01
.94 Finance, insurance, and real estate 4.18
.78 4.33
.75 4.65
.76 4.79
.76 5.02
.78
(
Services 12.04
.80 13.77
.82 15.06
.83 15.89
.83 17.02
.84 Government 11.43
.69 12.03
.73 11.30
.74 11.09
.75 10.89
.76 Federal civil!an 2.85
.67 2.57
.64 2.36
.64
.2.26
.63 2.14
.63 Federal ailitary
.66
.29 42
.28
.38
.29
.36
.29
.35
.30 State and local 7.92-
.80 9.03
.82 8.56
.84 8.47
.84 8.40
.85 Total employment (place of work) 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 100.00 1.00 Fars 2.03
.58 1.89
.69 1.58
.72 1.47
.74 1.38
.80 Nonfara 97.97 1.02 98.11 1.01 98.42 1.01 98.53 1.01 98.62 1.00 Private 83.65 1.03 83.39 1.02 84.46 1.02 84.89 1.02 85.33 1.02 Agricultural services forestry.
.34
.52
.34
.52
.33
.50 fisheries, and other
.30
.61
.35
.54 Mining 41
.55
.51
.57
.64
.67
.66
.71
.63
.74 Construction 5.09 1.01 4.67
.88 4.79
.88 4.75
.88 4.74
.89 Manufacturing 33.58 1.40 29.04 1.41 28.03 1.40 27.46 1.39 26.64 1.38 t
Nondurable goods 9.17
.93 8.00
.97 7.57
.97 7.38
.97 7.14
.97
+
Ourable goods 24.41 1.72 21.03 1.70 20.45 1.66 20.08 1.64 19.50 1.62 1ransportation, comunication.
and utilities 5.15 95 4.79
.94 4.67
.95 4.64
.95 4.65
.97 Wholesale trade 4.14
.89 4.72
.9) 4.77
.90 4.74
.90 4.72
.91 Retail trade 15.26 1.03 16.45 1.03 16.81 1.03 16.96 1.02 17.06 1.02 Finance, insurance, and real estate 3.92
.87 4.40
.86 4.81
.86 4.94
.86 5.12
.86 5ervices 15.81
.87 18.47
.91 19.60
.91 20.39
.91 21.44
.91 Gov'ernment 14.32
.77
- 14.72
.82 13.96
.83 13.64
.83 13.29
.83 federal civilian 2.30
.68 1.83
.64 1.67
.64 1.60
.64 1.53
.65 Federal military 1.58
.41 1.03 44
.92
.45
.88 46
.85 47 State and local 10.43
.92 11.85
.93 11.38
.93 11.16
.93 10.91
.93
' Projected years are frun 00ERS Scenario II.
NOTf: Percent distrit'utions calculated from rounded data.
I
Projected population and earnings, 1978-2000 The population of the area is pr0jected to increase to 14.4 million by 1985, and to 15.2 million by 2000. This represents a population increase of 3.3 percent from 1978 to 1985 and an additional increase of 6.0 percent from 1985 to 2000; during both periods the area's rates of population increases will be only one-half of the corresponding national increases.
In 1985, the study area's per capita income is projected to be $6,502,1 59,150, 2 percent more than nationally, and in 2000, it is projected to be percent more than nationally.
Total earnings in the study area are projected to increase 30.0 percent from 1978 to 1985, and an additional 49.9 percent from 1985 to 2000; these increases will be 93 percent. and 87 percent of th'e corresponding national increases for the respective periods.
Area earnings are projected to reach
$75.3 billion in 1985 and $112.8 billion in 2000.
Earnings in durables goods manufacturing are projected to yield declining LQ's of 1.74 in 1985 and 1.70 in 2000, with earnings of nondurable goods These industries are yielding relatively constant LQ's of 1.04 in both years.
the only ones projected to have LQ's of over.95 in both ye'ars.
Earnings in durable goods manufacturing-are projected t,o account for a greater share of total area earnings than any other industry--29.8 percent in 1985 and 28.9 in 2000.
Services is projected to increase its share of total earnings from 13.8 percent in 1978 to 15.1 percent in 1985 and 17.0 percent in 2'000, while at the same time maintaining an LQ'in a range of.82 to.84.
Most other industries are projected to largely maintain their current levels of both percent of total earnings and LQ.
e n
Employment, 1969-78 Total employment in the area increased 9,.8 percent from 1969 to 1978, little more than one-half the national rate.
In 1978, area employment totaled 6.4 million.
In 1978, the area's largest employer was the durable goods manufacturing industry (1.3 million, or 21.0 percent of the total), followed by services (18.5 percent), retail trade (16.5 percent), and State and local government (11.9 percent).
Only durable goods manufacturing and retail trade registered 1978 employment LQ's of over 1.00--1.70 and 1.03, respectively. Services registered an LQ of.91 and State and local government, an LQ of.93.
The Federal military
~
registered the smallest LQ--only.44.
In the 1969-78 period, employment in durable goods manufacturing increased 5.4 percent, almost one-and-two-thirds the national rate of increase. The only other industry in which employment increased at a greater rate than that experienced nationally during the 9-year period was nondurable goods manuf acturing, up 4.2 percent, or one-and-one-half times : the national rate.
~
Services, retail trade, and ~ State. and local government, although increasing
. r egional employment by 28.2, 18.4, and 24.8 percent, respectively, from 1969 to 1978, lagged corresponding nationwide rates of increase by 15 to 34 percent.
Projected employment, 1978-2000 Total employment.in the area is projected to increase 11.6 percent from 1978 to 1985 (to 7.1 million) and an additional 8.2 percent from 1985 to 2000 (to 7.7 million).
From 1978 to 1985, the area's employment rate of increase will be 84 percent of the national rate of increase, and from 1985 to 2000, it will be only 59 percent of the national rate. Of the largest employment groups, services employment is projected to undergo the greatest
- change, 4
=,
-5 increasing its share of total employment to 19.6 pe, cent in 1985 and 21.4 r
percent in 2000. At the same time, however, services employment LQ is projected to remain at the 1978 figure of.91.
Fmploymer.: in durable goods manufacturing is projected to decrease its share of total employment only slightly, to 19.5 percent in 2000, with a reduced LQ of 1.62.
Retail trade will-increase its share of total employment slightly to '17.1 percent and decrease its LQ fractionally to 1.02.
State and local gov'ernment employment will decrease its share of the total (to 10.9 percent 11,2000) and largely maintain employment l
LQ's in the projected years.
Impacts:
SST1 Towards SW The industrial impact model'was run for a reactor accident sce'nario (SST1)
~
for a southwest (SW) wind vector. Table 7.4 shows both the counties affected by the accident and the differing types of effects in these counties.
For this hypothetical accident, table 7.5 shows the large directly affected;[ agricultural and manufacturing industries; output data are estimated by RIMS II.
(Nonagricultural output in the decontaminat'i~on counties is lost fo/ 3 months, so
~
that if the decontamination counties accounted for 4 percent of U.S.
output in in the-table.) Total a particular industry, this. would appear as 1 percent employment and selected industry-specific employment in each c'ounty of the interdicted and decontamination areas are shown in table 7.6; actual levels (rather than one-quarter shares of annual totals for the decontamination area) are for 1978.
Tables 7.5 and 7.6 indicate that major industrial effects would occur in machinery, fabricated metal products (except transportation Table 7.6 indicates that equipment), and primary metal industries (SIC 33-36).
only a small part of the total direct industrial effets would take place in the e
Table 7.4.--Production loss, by County, Perry Nuclear BeaClor, 55il.5W (22.5' arc)
Type of production loss Counties Length of production loss f atent of tourist avoldance Physical contamination:
Physically af fected:
All industries Interdicted (25 miles)
More than 3 year, all 100% for more than 3 year take, OH (host county)
Industries inC1vding Ceauga OH agricultural production Ashtabula, OH All industries.
Decentamination (94 miles)
Three months loss in 100% for 3 months, then encept agriculture Medina, OH nonagricultural output; 751 for 9 months Ashland, CH one year loss in all crop Cuyahoga, OH output, escept no loss in Wayne OH greenhouse, nursery, and forestry output; three months loss in dairy output; and sia months loss in Ilvestock and poultry output No loss l' nonagrl:ultural 451 for 1 year; encept
. Agriculture, encept Crop-interdicted (271 miles) n dairy milk All of the above, and outpat; one year loss in in the snterdicted and Crawford, OH Marion OH agricultural eutput, esteet contaminated areas as Richland, OH Delaware, OH no loss in greenhouse, noted above Morrow, OH t icking. OH nursery, and forestry Knon, OH-Union OH output; no loss in livestock and poultry output; and two months loss in dairy output Dairy milk only Milk-interdicted (298 alles)
No loss of output in any 451 for 1 year; except All of the above, and industrial sector, encept in the interdicted and Champaign, OH Ripley, IN two months loss in dairy contaminated areas as Miami, OH
Dearborn,
,IN output noted above Clark, OH Sultzerland, IN Montgomery, OH Frank lin, IN Preble. OH Ohio, IN Butler, OH Calatin, KV Franklin, OH Aen, KT Clermont, CH Robertson, KT Brown, OH Fleming, KT Adams, OH Mason, KV Mighland, OH Bracken, KT Clinton, OH Pendleton, KY Warren, OH Grant, KY Green. OH Boone, KY Fayette, OH Keaton, KT Ross, OH Campbell, KT Plckaway, OH Madison, OH Hamilton, OH Indirect economic ef fects:
Physically unaf fected:
Bf A Tconomic Areas
- First year only, based 101 for 1 year Ohio, plus 75 and 77-79, on RIM 5 II less at>ove counties
(
- for component counties, see ET A Iconomic Areas (Revised 1977), Bf A, U.S. Department of Comerce, Washington, D.C.
Table 7.5.--Large Direct Effects in Agriculture and Manufacturing Due to an SST1-SW, Perry Nuclear Reactor Percent range of SIC code U.S. output Industry name part of 01 1-5 Food grains part of 02 1-5 Dairy farm products 2394 1-5 C
Canvas products 2519 11-15 C
Household furniture, n.e.c. 2542 1-5 C
Metal partitions and fixtures 277 1 C Greeting card publishing 2789 1-5 C
Bookbinding and related work 2793 1-5 C
Photoengraving Paints and allied products 285 6-10 C Adhesives and sealants 2891 1-5 I/C 2893 1-5 C
Printing ink 2899 6-10 I/C Chemical preparations, n.e.c. 2952 11-15 I
Asphalt felts and coatings Fabricated rubber products, n.e.c. 306 6-10 I/C Miscellaneous plastics products 307 1-5 I
3255 1-5 C
Clay refractories Vitreous plumbing fixtures 3261 6-10 C Fine earthenware food utensils 3263 6-10 C g
3291 1-5 C
Abrasive products Nonmetallic mineral products, n.e.c. 3299 11-15 I
3312 1-5 C
Blast furnaces Electrometallurigal products 3313 1-5 I
Steel wire and related products 3315 1-5 I/C 3317 1-5 C
Steel pipe and tubes Iron and steel foundries 332 1-5 C
3398 6-10 I/C Metal heat treating 3399 6-10 C Primary metal products, n.e.c. 334 1-5 C
Secondary nonferrous metals l*
Nonferrous rolling and drawing, n.e.c. 3356 11-15 I/C
-3361 1-5 I/C Aluminum castings Brass, bronze, and copper castings 3362 1-5 C
Nonferrous castings, n.e.c. 3369 1-5 I
Metal barrels, drums, and pails 3412 1-5 1/C 3423 1-5 I
Hand and edge tools, n.e.c.
I Plumbing fixture fittings and trim 3432 1-5 C
Heating equipment, except electric 3433 1-5 C
Miscellaneous metal work 3449 6-10 C 345 6-10 I/C Screw machine products Iron and steel forgings 3462 1-5 I/C 3463 21-25 C l
Nonferrous forgings Q
{].... -.
~
Table 7.5.--Large Direct Effects in Agriculture and Manufacturing Dus to an SST1-SW, Perry Nuclear Reactor--Continu:d Percent range of Industry name SIC code U.S. output Automotive stampings
~
3465 11-15 C
1 Metal stampings, n.e.c. 3469 1-5 I/C Plating and polishings 3471 1-5 C
Pipe, valves, and pipe fittings.
3494, 3498 1-5 I/C Miscellaneous fabricated wire products 3495-6 1-5 I/C Fabr'icated metal products, n.e.c. 3499 1-5 I/C Construction machinery and equipment 3531 1-5 C
Mining machinery, except oil field 3532 1-5 C-Hoists, cranes, and monorails 3536 6-10 I
Industrial trucks and tractors 3537 16-20 I
Machine tools, metal cutting types 3541 6 C Machine tools, metal forming types 3542 6-10 C Special dies and machine tool accessories 3544-5 1-5 I/C Power-driven hand tools 3546 1-5 I/C Rolling mill machinery 3547 1-5 I
Metal working machinery, n.e.c. 3549 1-5 C
Wood working machinery 3553 1-5 I
Special industry machinery, n.e.c. 3559 6-10 I/C Industrial patterns 3565 1-5 I
Power transmission equipment 3566, 3568 1-5 I
General industrial machinery, n.e.c. 3569 1-5 I
Office machines, n.e.c. 3579 1-5 I
Carburetors, pistons, rings, v.alv.es.
3592 1-5 I
Machinery, except electrical, n.e.c. 3599 1-5 I
Industrial controls 3622 1-5 I/C Welding apparatus, electric 3623 31-35 C
Carbon and graphite products 3624 6-10 I
Electrical industrial apparatus, n.e.c. 3629 6-10 I/C Electric housewares and fans "3634 6-10 C Household vacuum cleaners 3635 11-15 C
Electric lamps 3641 6-10 C Lighting fixtures and equipment 3645-8 1-5 C
Electrical equipment, n.e.c. 3699 6-10 I
Motor vehicle parts and accessories 3714 6-10 I/C Aircraft and missle equipment, n.e.c. 3728, 3764 1-5 C
Mechanical measuring devices 3823-4, 3829 1-5 I
Musical instruments 393 1-5 I
Brooms and brushes 3991 11-15 1/C I indicates that effects occur primarily in the interdicted area.
C indicates that effects occur primarily in the decontamination area.
I/C indicates that large effects occur in both areas.
Table 7,6,- tarte Direct Iffects sa heavf actertag fueleyment (1978)
One to en 55f t-5W. by Cow?ty, Perry bctear Aeactor heter of employees affected hooer of eueleyees af fected for three moacas for more taan one year sic inovstry maae taae, on Geavga, ON Asntahla, CH Cuy6hoga, On Medina, ON Ashland, ON bayne, CW code 239 Miscelleseous f aartcated teattle N
products 251 Mousenels foraltere
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1,167 -
8 1,064
!$4 Parttttens and fistures F
277 f,reettag card petilsatst C
e63 278 Slanabooas and tocattnetag 522 279 Prsattag trade services 2,257 f
285 Palats and allied proevets 187 289 Mtscellaneous chestCal predvCts III 8
I,69I Ilt 8
I 1,019 8
8 195 Pentag and roof tag asterials 62 306 f a6ricated rubber products, a.e.c, l.094 2,180 C
f 966 C
las 307 Miscellaneous plastics products
(
1,265 M
4,195 C
C G
325 Structural clay products C
I f
8 C
326 Pettery and eelsted products 329 Miscelleneses soametallic eineral C
1,369 217 I
proevets 129 331 Blast fornact and basic steel preexts C
8 J
B
(
I f
8,419 332 trea and steel foundries C
950 334 5econdary centerrevs metals
,C 2.786 8
335 manferrows rolltag ans erastag C
336 noaferrows foundetes 342 C
n f
C 339 Mtstellaneous primary metal 1,643 products 178
~_' ~
B F
341 metal cans and salpping contalaers I
342 Cettery, hand tools, and nordnare f
f 1,231 1,473 343 Plancing and heattag, encept electric 344 f a6cicated strvetural metal proevets I
8 5,210 357 8
345 Scree recatae proevets, belts, etc.
1,040 140 C
5,590 C
3,013 346 Metal ferglass and stampings 904 f
15,972 1,023 2.189 8
347 Metal services, a.e.c. 349 Piscellaneens f abricated metal proevcts 980 I
444 4,57)
(
f 686 353 Coastruction and related 6,205 135 322 sacatnery 4,265 354 metal.orslag machinery 1,493 236 516 13.097 71 3,887 355 Specsal industry eachtnery 283 C
4 605 3s4 General ladestrial eachtnery C
4.043 F
357 Of fice and comoottat eachtnes 359 Mtstellaneous eacntnery, escept
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electrical 1,252 58 5
6,642
- 160 f
367 362 flectrical ladustrial apparatus 334 C
E 7,0!!
C 8
2 C51 C
363 Mousenals appliances 364 Electrical lignting and utetag etelp eat 250 t
C 4,658 369 Miscellaneous electrical etutoment 4.286 8
8 and supeltes 8
1 G
984 371 Motor ventcles sad etelpment 891 f
21.138 5,757 372 Atrcraf t and parts 8
376 Guided etssles, spac* ventcles, e
e e
e g
I
,,, c,
2,942 382 Measvrtag and controlling devices G
f C
393 Nsical tastruments F
62 I,939 557 I
t 399 Miscellaneous manuf actures ta6 Total saavf acturing, C8P 27,395 6,202 13,506 234,512 8,426 7,958 13,905 Total private sector, CSP 61,282 14,690 27,727 689,748 23,483 13,983 27,636 Total manuf acturing, Ils 25,507 6,797
!),916 237,!!8 8,035 7,663 33, a65 j
Total private sector, slA 65,792 II 644 35,277 742,764 28,584 17,420 35,221 Total all sectors, slA 76,558 21,466 40,165 851,303 33,129 19,870 42,J17 l
l
(
' Industry not present in the covaty, sange of e=,loyment ef fect--B:20-99; C:100-249; (:250-499; f:500 999; G:1,000-2,499; M:2.500-4,999; J:10,000 24,999, U.S. Department of Correrce, lureav of the Census, Cov ty ensiness Patterns- (Cl8L 1978, Washin9 ton, O.C., ' 981.
8 a
Source:
~
[
1 I
0 92
inte'rdicted counties, and that a large percentageN of J.he direct impacts could be mitigated by a " clean up" undertaken in the decontamination part of the physically affected area.
Therefore, only a small percentage of the direct impacts should be expected to persist after the first three months following the accident.
Table 7.7 shows the effects of the accident 'on aggregated industry-specific employment, both in the physically affected area and in the physically unaffected area. Economic effects in the physically unaffected area could occur because of (1) decreased exports to (demand by) the physically affected area, (2) tourist avoidance, and (3) decreased imports from (supply by) the physically affected area.
(These effects are on an annual basis for 1978; therefore, job lost in the decontamination area is counted as one-quarter of a job.) Major direct effects could amount to 5.3 percent of the total employment in the Perry economic area and would occur in durable goeds manufacturing (which includes machinery), retail trade, and services.
Indirect effects are considerably smaller.
Tourist-related effects take place in services (where the direct effects on hotel and lodging places are the largest part) and retail trade (where the direct effects on eating and drinking establishments are the largest part).
As shown in table 7.8, several industries in the physically unaffected area are vulnerable to supply constraints.
(The employment effects are on an annual basis.) Since the constraints were estimated after first permitting output to increase up to maximum desired capacity in the physically unaffected area, employment losses would occur in these industries if they were unable to import,
- 4. For the interdicted and decontamination areas combined, the decontamination area represents 87 percent of BEA total employment.
9..-
lable 7.7.--Private-Sector Employment Losses (1978)
Due to an SST1-SW, Perry Nuclear Reactor (Thousands of annual jobs)
Direct, losses Indirect losses in the physically Total employment in the unaffected area due to Industry physically aff ected U.S.
Study area area Decreased Tourist Supply exports avoidance constraints
- Agriculture 3,4,17 142
,9 0
0 Mining 901 33 1
0 0
y Construction 5,387 297 15 0
0 Probably small Nondurables manufacturing 8,377
'509 27 0
2 Probably small Durables manufacturing 12,519
_.1,337
.72 0
0-Probably small Transportation, communication, and 0
0 utilities 5,159 304 14 Wholesale trade 5,248 300 21 0
1 Retail trade 16,198 1,045 58 0
11 Finance, insurance, and real estate 5,190 279 14 0
0 Services 20,630 1,173 57 0
13 Total 83,026
-5,419 288 0
27
- for more details on the potential size of individual constraints, see table 7.8.
,s 9
Table'7.8.--Selected Frivate-Sector EspMynent Supply Constraints and Vulnerabilities (1978) Due to an SSil-SW, Perry Nuclear Reactor (Thousands of annual jobs)
Co'nstraining industry in the physically af fected area Directly vulnerable industries in the physically unaffected area SIC code Industry name Number SIC code Industry name.
Number 12 01,02 Agriculture 10 20 Food and kindred products 35 Nonelectrical machinery 6
33 Primary metals 4
371 Motor vehicles 3
35 Electrical machinery 6
15-17 Contract construction 7
35 Nonelectrical machinery 13 371 Motor vehicles ~
3 L
e e
mmm
from elsewhere in the United States, required inputs no longer avaliable from the physically affected area.
Since increased imports from elsewhere in the United States could be forthcoming, rather than ascribing estimated employment losses to these industries, these industries are designated as " vulnerable" to the employment losses of the size shown in table 7.8.
Some of the vulnerable employment might be expected not to represent lost employment.
For example, to avoid the loss of 23,000 jobs in contract construction, nonelectrical machinery, and motor vehicles in the physically unaffected area, the output of 6,000 jobs in electrical machinery might be imported from outside the study area.
However, several linkages of constraining industry with. vulnerable industries are likely to result in lost employment. Contract construction could be expected to have difficulties in locating another source of electrical machinery (SIC 36), because the Perry economic area accounts for a significant amount of the U.S. output of electrical machinery, and it is doubtful if l
secondary sources could be found outside of the Perry area.
t Table 7.9showsemployment(annualbasis)losseswhenthetwocompensating effects have taken place.
If output increased up to maximum desired capacity in l
th'e physically unaffected area, but households had not yet resumed their normal consumption, then job losses in nondurable manufacturing would be more than halved.
However, losses in retail trade and services would decrease only slightly since these industries are affected primarily by household expenditures.
If household expenditures attained their former level, total job losses would decrease considerably.
Only agriculture and mining, which are assumed to be unable to expand capacity in the one-year impact interval adopted in this study, show the same job losses as in the initial case. However, it is important to recognize that the difference between the initial case and the
\\.
\\
Table 7.9.--Private-Sector Employment losses (1978)
Due to an SST1-SW, Perry Nuclear Reactor (Thousands of annual jobs)
Industry Direct losses I Partially compensated losses /
Fully compensated lossesd/
I 2
Agriculture 9
9 9
Mining 1
1 1
Construction 15 14 1
Nondurables manufacturing 27 15 12 Durables manufacturing 72 29 28 m
Transportation, communication, and utilities 14 10 3
I Wholesale trade 21 18 2
Retail trade 58 56 2
Finance, insurance, and real estate 14 10 1
Services 57 50 5
Total 288 212 64
- 1. Direct losses in the physically af fected area; see table 7.7.
- 2. Partially compensated losses would occur, if output increases up to the maximum desired capacity in the physically unaffected area, but households do not resume normal consumption.
- 3. Fully compensated losses would occur, if output increases up to maximum desired capacity in the physically unaffected area, and households resume normal consumption.
3 fully compensated case i's itself a measure of the size of the adjustment that must occur in the physically unaffected area. Considerable time may be required for the physically unaffected area to assimulate all but 64,000 of the initial 288,000 annual jobs directly affected.
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9 9.
l CDC
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on the service list below.
-u 4 ~
o Susan L.
Hiatt l
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' SERVICE LIST Peter B. Bloch, Chairman Daniel D. Wilt, Esq.
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