ML20058F328

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Summary of 820622 Meeting W/Westinghouse Owners Group in Bethesda,Md Re Reactor Vessel Integrity During Pressurized Thermal Shock
ML20058F328
Person / Time
Issue date: 06/30/1982
From: Litton F
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:
NRC
References
REF-GTECI-A-49, REF-GTECI-RV, TASK-A-49, TASK-OR NUDOCS 8207300413
Download: ML20058F328 (47)
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{{#Wiki_filter:1 5 i UNITED STATES O kk T Io {.j, NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION g y /. E WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 \\;'.W..[+/ o s June 30, 1982 T0: Distribation FROM: F. B. Litton Generic Issues Branch, DST

SUBJECT:

SUffiARY OF WOG/NRC MEETING ON REACTOR VESSEL INTEGRITY ON JUNE 22, 1982 CONCERNING PTS ISSUE A meeting was held in Bethesda, MD on June 22, 1982, with the Westinghouse Owners Group concerning reactor vessel integrity during pressurized thermal shock. The objective of the discussion was to review the probabilistic assessment versus operational history, fracture mechanics analysis, material properties,'and transient analysis. Westinghouse Owner's Group made counter proposals to the staff's final water temperature (T ) of 250"F at the surface of the reactor g vessel and a limit of 230"F (longitudinal weld) on RT of the material. The counter proposal consisted of Tyof29hfatthe surface of the reactor vessel and a limit of 310'F and 335 F on RT at longitudinal and circumferential welds, respectively. Th$Ddifference of approximately 40 F was attributed to differences in calculational procedures. The owners group assumed a semielleptical flaw, while the staff assumed a straight front shaped flaw. Also, the staff gave credit (toughness) to the vessel clad material; while the owner's group neglected the clad toughness in their calculation. The WOG suggested that RT serve as a " screening basis" for specific l plant evaluation of the PgTissue. Westinghouse identified four(4) cooldown transients in addition to those identified by the staff in the June 9, 1982, presentation. In the WOG probabilistic risk assessment (PRA), the NRC probabilistic fracture mechanics was coupled with the Westinghouse probabilistic transient evaluation l to yield safety goals consistent with but somewhat lower than those reported by the staff. It was pointed out by the staff that the I NRC probabilistic fracture mechanics should not be used in an absolute sense; they should be used for only sensitivity studies. The WOG analyses indicated that the PTS issue would be of no concern to oFerating plants for the transient considered for the next five years of plant operation. g, b l ,v i \\h l s .a r i 8207300413 820630 /K*y PDR TOPRP EMVWEST C PDR L

e t _2 The meeting served to continue the dialogue and obtain feedback in the areas of agreement and disagreement for resolution of the PTS issue. Attached are handouts of the meeting which identify specific points made by WOG. Also, an attendance list is attached for record purposes. 7b F. B. Litton Generic Issues Branch, DST

Enclosures:

As Stated cc w/ enclosures: See next page

i e ORB #4:DL MEETING SUfWARY DISTRIBUTION Licensee: o Copies also sent to those people on service (cc) list for s bj u ect plant (s). Docket File NRC PDR L PDR ORB #4 Rdg TNovak JStolz Project Manager Licensing Assistant-RIngram OELD Heltemes, AE0D IE SShowe (PWR) or CThayer (BWR). IE Meeting Sucinary File-0RB#4 RFraley, ACRS-10 Program Support Branch: ORAB, Rm. 542 BGrimes, DEP SSchwartz, DEP SRamos, EPDB i FPagano, EPLB Meeting Participants Fm. NRC: 02LauDen JStrosnider EThrom MVagins RKlecker MVirgilio SHanauer SNewberry RMattson JRosen thal TDunning i CJohnson EBrown Llois PRandall RRantala FSchroeder AThadani BSileron SIsrael HDenton

v v e WESTINGHOUSE OWNERS GROUP ATTENDANCE 6/22/82 NAME ORGANIZATION J. M. Donis FP&L H. N. Paduano FP&L P. C. Riccardella NUTECH (Consultant to FP&L) V. T. Cailson FP&L J. F. Copeland NUTECH (Consultant to FP&L) J. D. McAdoo W NTD G. N. Lauben NRC/RSB Len Connor DOC-Search Associates L. Connor NRC Calendar J. F. Stolz NRC/DL J. J. Begila Bechtel R. A. Kaminsky FP&L tiike Ahearn Northeast Utilities Bill Szymczak Yankee Atomic Jack Strosnider NRC/RES/MTEB M. Vagins NRC/RES/MTEB M. Virgilio NRC/GIB Bruce King Westinghouse Scott Newberry NRC/RRAB Joe Sheppard CP&L D. Woods CP&L J. Rosenthal NRC/DSI/ICSB Tom Dunning NRC/DSI/ICSB Carl Johnson NRC Earl Brown NRC/AE0D L. Lois -NRC/CPB W. G. Flournoy Southern Cal. Edison Co. P. N. Randall NRC/MTEB R. A. Rantala NRC/MTEB D. R. Powell NUS F. Schroeder NRC/ DST A. Thadani NRC/ DST E. Igne ACRS

Y e = . NAME a ORGANIZATION W. Bamford Westinghouse B. W. Sileron NRC/DSI/RSB S. Israel NRC/ DST D. R. Sharp Westinghouse G. G. Elia Westinghouse H. R. Denton D/NRR F. B. Litton MTEB/NRR D. M. Speyer Con.: Edison of NY J. A. Rumancik Westinghouse R. Woods NRC/GIB E. Throm NRC/DSI/RSB R. Klecker NRC/DE/MTEB S. Hanauer NRC/ DST R. Mattson NRC/DSI T. Novak NRC/AD/DL W. Andrews Southern Co. Services j K. R. Bankey W_ National Technology M. A. Weaver Westinghouse e + --n.-- n., ~

I' s a Agenda p/NRC MEETING ON R'FJCIOR VESSEL IIITEGRITY Jtine 22,1982 9:00 inn - Int ruluct. ion 9:!D am - tbnpiricon of 19 ohibilist ic Tr.nutient Iwlu.it. ion to (p i.it ing fli::Isuy 9:30 am - Effect of Cbolant 7bnperature Transient on ICS Pmssure 9:45 am - Combination of Transient Probability and crack Initiation Probability ,. masse. 10:15 am - Fracture Mechanics Effects on Screening Value of RTg e Vessel 7hickness e bban -versus-Conservacive RPg e Arrest -versus-Initiation 10:45 am - (bnclusions 11:00 am - Discussion f O Please note: '1he above listed tines are Westinghouse grentation t.inen. We request an equal anount of tine for discussion. Westinghouse also requests a statement from the Staff as to their mnclusion. 1 3 1 I

SUMMARY

WOG PROBABILISTIC TRANSIENT EVALUATION (PTE) IS CONSISTENT WITH OPERATING HISTORY LAWS OF PHYSICS APPLY CONSTRAINTS ON P(t) VS. a T(t) RELATIONSHIPS ~ M0G PTE AND NRC PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE EXTENSION EVALUATION (PFE) ARE COMPLIMENTARY COUPLING E0G PTE AND NRC PFE INDICATES THAT MEAN RTf4DT'S OF 260 To 290*F YIELD PROBABILITIES OF FLAW EXTENSION OF 10-7 To 30-6 INCLUDING ~ PRESSURE EFFECTS. ~ PROBABILITIES CORRESPOND TO CONSERVATIVE RTraDT's OF: 320 - 350 LONGITUDINAL (AXI Al) FLAWS 345 - 375 CIRCUMFERENTIAL FLAWS " TAIL" EFFECTS INCLUDED BY USE OF DETAILED TRANSIENT AMD PROBABILITY ANALYSIS SIGNIFICANT CONSERVATISM EXISTS IN THESE RESULTS BECAUSE OF USE OF INITIATION AS CRITERIA

7 9 CONCLUSIONS / RECOMMENDATIONS RTNDT SERVES AS A " SCREENING BASIS" FOR PTS PRIORITIZATION OF PLANTS ~ TIMELINESSOFPLANTSPECIFICEVALUATI0ilS G0AL TO MAINTAIN PROBABILITY OF FAILURE CONSISTENT WITH SAFETY G0ALS FOR i PLANTS RTNDT VALUES OF 5/28 REPORT ARE f APPROPRIATE SCREENING VALUES, I.E. ON A l ~~~ CONSERVATIVE BASIS: GREATER THAN 335*F CIRCUMFERENTIAL FLAWS GREATER THAN 310*F LONGITUDINAL FLAWS CONSISTENT WITH 11 REPORTS CONSERVATIVE WITH RESPECT TO NRC PFE AND SAFETY G0ALS PROCEDURE / TRAINING EFFORTS ALREADY UNDERWAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MARGIN CONTINUE TO MONITOR OPERATING EXPERIENCE 1

1 I h i t i PRA (DNSIERATIGE i ~ i GMPKE IN PRA S~lVDY OF ACRML OCORM03. 1 i - 00NSISTENCY OF ACRIAL F[QlENCIES OF GMLIENERS WITH [SULTS OF STUIN.' N h 1 1 e f i I ew I f l t i - i P i a k l 5 1 i ) 4 4 ,Tw+-, - * - -w.w,w w-w,,. -wm,w,,-,m.. -,,,-,.,,,,w-., ,,vw,-.w,.c.,.,,w re,n<--we,.w-,..-,-,,.._w,,y--y.,-_,,-w.w,.,--,-.,~-,,-.v---w,--.

PIANT (1/m) (* F) (* F) (PSIG) NSSS DESCRIPTION DATE BETA T-final DUFAT'O's t-init. PRESSURE (DFSTS + W Robinson 2 ~ Pre-op Small SLB 04/28/72 0.097 320 l hour 530 2050 W Robinson 2 j P-Reading Stuck SG Valve 11/05/72 0.043 389 2 hours 550 1700 Off Sca'le W Robinson 2 P-Reading RCP Seal SB LOCA 05/01/78 0.172 310 30 minutes 450 1000 Off Scale W Ginna Backflow of Cold ~ SGTR/ Stuck PORV 01/25/82 0.127 265 45 minutes 550 1400 SI on Cold Leg RfD W North Anna 1 Spurious SI Act. 05/23/80 @.167 525 s15 minutes 543 ,2360 Coldest T Measured W North Anna 1 IT-Stuck Dump EIV's Closed Valve 09/25/79 s0.111 472 %15 minutes 542 s2350 After Ni minutes W Prairie Island.1 SGTR 10/02/79 S0.027 s350 1 hour 528 S1000 ~ W Point Beach 1 ~ SGTR 02/26/75 4430 % 2 hours 550? N1000 Data Incompletc e l I e

.lNI.IIAll!!G. BU1T DC0!l1C[f3. IMRI EftHMCY...(dhYlRD. 3.41 J. LDSS 5F mlN TEEDlATER (IDRi). 6'.'00 X 10-1 2. CLOSUE OF ONE mlN STEAM ISOLATION VALVE (MSIV) ~~ 3.21X10-1

3. LOSS OF PRimRY FLO.i(LOPF) 4.'77 X 10-2

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4. COE POER INCEASE (P0/IIN) 4.00
5. ' TURBINE 1 RIP (TD

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6. SPUR 10llS SalElY INJECTION ACTIVATION (SSI) 1.59 X J0-1 4.11
7. ICACl0R 1 RIP (RD
8. TURBIE TRIP DE TO L6S OF 0FFSITE PO'ER (IT/tIDP) 1.01 X 10-3 3.92 X 10-2
9. STEA'i EERATOR TUE RUPTU[ (SGTR) 9.07 X 10-3
30. Smu_ IDCA, <1.5 IN DIRETER (LOCA-1) 4 6.11 X 10
11. SMU. LOCA, >l 5 IN DINEIER (lDCA-2)

S 3.88 X JO 12. LAIKE IKA, >6 IN DIMETER (LDCA-3) 2.50 X ]0-1

13. EXQ-SSIVE mlN RED 4AlER (EX R4) 3.88 X 10-4
14. SlE#LINE RUPillE INSIE CONTAIN&NT (STM BRK IN)
15. STE#LINE RUPTUE OUISIE CONTAINTNT (STM BRK OIK) 3'.87 X 10-2

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G2C CTIE TRANSIENT FREQUENCY FOR U.S. h'dSTINGOUSE PLANTS Frequency No. of per Rx yr Events -2 6 X 10 10 -- -2 5.4 X 10 9,, Frequency of going belcw -2 4.8 X 10 8 " 290'F is 1/150 Rx yr = 6 X 1: 4.2 X 10 7,, (TOTAL FROM 5/26 REPORT IS 4X10d) -2 -2 3.6 X 10 6 -- -2 3.0 X 10 5 - - -2 2.4 X 10 4,, -2 1.8 X 10 3,, -2 1.2 X 10 2 -- ~3 6 X 10 1 -_ 0 250 3:: 350 400 450 500 550 T. final (*F), MEASURED-00LD LEG TEMPERAiURE i

i I

SUMMARY

- ACTUAL OCCURRENCES ARE COVERED IN THE PRA STUDY. - PRA STUDY IS CONSISTENT WITH ACTUAL F,REQUENCIES OF OCCURRENCES. - STilDY CONSISTENT, ALTl10 Ugli SOMEWHAT LOWER, TilAN NRC FREQUENCIES. = l

s CONSERVATISMS IN SCREEt1ING EVALUATIONS - SCREBilf1G IS PASED Oil CRACK IfilTIATI0il - CRACK ARREST IS THE KAT1If1GFUL CRITERI01 FOR S!FETY EVALUAT10fl - WAPJ1 PRESTRESSIff; ADDS FURTllER C0ilSERVATISM - CRACK ARREST -CONCEPT - DATA PASE - CRITERIA - FRACTURF T0llGiliESS USED, BOTil IfilTIAT10l'l NJD ARREST IS PASED 01 ll[ Col)L QMS, Wil101 ARE VI RY C0fElWAIIVf M1W411 'l0 OTHER LOWER BOUffD APPR0 AGES i 1 t

c i ETERMIillSTIC FRACTUE ICHAlllCS EVAll!ATI0il CIllECTIVE: TO KTERMll4E PESSUE-TBPERATURE LIlilTS FOR BOTH CRACK ItilTIATI0fl NO AREST ASSlWTI0ilS: e STEP OW1GES IN TU1P. FR01550 F e Filli RCS FLOW e GE0KTRY, l'ATERIAL PROPERTIES NO FLUBlCE FOR REPESENTATIVE " LEAD" VESSELS a 5 EFPY FRG1 TODAY,' R.G.1,99 IRRADIATI0il DN%GE TPB0 CURVES & N LOW tilCKEL TRBO e CURVES WIDI APPLICABLE e EVALLATE CRACK IllITIATI0il VALUES 6 25% OF VESSEL Wall Til1001ESS e EVALlRTE CRACK ARREST WIT 111N 75% OF VESSEL Wall THIO 0ESS ETHOD: DETEITilfE CRITICAL PESSUE FOR EACH THERf%L TRANSIENT 1

PRESSURE-TEMPERATURE LIMITS FOR CRACK INITIATION AND ARREST Circeeforential Flame / / 24 m / h "C0tJSERVATIVE" CRACK lt11TIATIOt1 LitJE FOR 22"' SORT!tG - PFPESEffTATIVE " LEAD" VESSELS / a + 5 E7/ FROM PRESEffT / / / f / I 33to-- / I / I 18 *- CALCULATED "C0t4SERVATIVE' CRACK lRREST CURVE l / e / I " t ees-- s / y 12eo-- / E / teee-- I / / T4SERVATIVE" CRACK 's,' / ULATED '"? / IfilTIAT10t1 CURVE see-I / \\ / l I ] ,s' I ~4 l \\ l .t 164 ISO 200 229 240 269 230 300 0 29 44 64 30 100 120 140 TEflPUtATURE

4 E 'E V I E T V A R V U RC ES N N O O I C T A T I S D T E E I N KI R R l A U K C C D L A A R N CC A / N O I I T A I 0 f T / ~ I N / I K C E A R R UT i Cr A R R t. PE O M 4 s E F d. T t S a. T I. t M "E I L V / I T E A R V U R E E V T S R A N t R OC E C" T P S M D E E E R T T R AA L E U K R C C U L A A R S CC S E R P ~ P' s ty 't t ! :l

c GENERAL PRESSURE PROFILE AND PRESSURE TRANSIE a P3 P1 P R y E S Y S u R E P2 T TIME X T Y TemsIerr P1 (PSI / Mud (SEC,) P2 (PSI /MIt0 P3 A 2575 5000 500 15 200 Va!ED B 2575 5000 2000 15 200 VARIED C 2575 TOO TO 1000 200 VARIED D 2575 5000 2000 1000 200 VARIED E 2575 50 3t00 15 200 VARIED 500 15 200 VARIED \\ 15 F G 2575 5000 500 15 VMIED 2575 Y ~_ =nen. ;ggg-m.n.: gyy ,gc

e t RESULTS FROM EVALUATING PRESSURE TRANSIENT G FOR 8 > u 1. Represourftetton pote 40 paf/ min 8' W S0 pel/ min 3 75 pel/ min 100 pal / min ~ W 150 pol / min ,g. .7<- .6 s.S< - 4 .3., .2 .t., O. 100 ISO 200 250 J00 350 400 450 0 30 f Final (*F) x,. .wa.. ne,, x..

o 1 i 4 J l p F f THE CRACK ARREST CONCEPT 1 i e ACCER ED BY AS E CODE e S1ATIC CRACK AIRST REC 0f10KD BY PVRC-ffC C0ffilDE e VERIFID IN TilfFAL SlK)CK TESTS AT MK Rile e BOTH THERf%L #0 EOMNICAL LOADINGS HAVE BEB1 USED b f i I i i i j l l 1 I i l l 4 i J i b i I i l

I i J 1 1 i l. J f MTA BASE FOR CRACK ARREST I l e SIZEABLE fGEER OF EATS NOW IN ffC DATA BASE E) "l (MORE TlW1 ORIGIfR KIR e ORNL THERMAL SHOCK TESTS PROVIDE ADDITI0fR DATA e ORNL ESULTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH SKCIEN TESTS i 4 I I L -i i l

4 1 j 2 4 k i i i i 4 1 _ m m 8 = o ~ / W i R / u <x -B_ g u. m / u 5 / of x i ti' .. * */..% *# * /[ + a f r*** j u e... /e k. ,i g. .. f.f.. I , u An=Y { -1 t 7 -t..... . c.,v u. + / + I' _ _ ___ __. / i i ~ i I -7 1 I I I i i i i i -14 -1B -6 -2 2 6 IB 14 REFERENCE TEMPERATURE I CPACK ARREST I%TA PASE 1 l i I

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O!END li!CREi!SE l'i CMC' 6R3ffil RESIST /GCE FUR IUTut FiltS. lionutex er, AL. SIP 677,1979 15 T i d 6 D Io 1 2b -o I h 10 5 [ a l d 5 o O / O.5 E 2 0 - I f f 0 05 10 NORMAUZED CRACK OEPTH old Fig.~4: Observed development of surface cracks in plates under uniform fatigue loading from various initial crack shapes. Aluminium and steel specimens, thickness d = 10 and 20 mm .s /ah o o 4 o 4J.; d fig. 5: Expec ted development of part-through cracks in plates with surface layers of higher t rack resistance

CRACK AREST CRITERIA e 75 ERCENT WALL LIMIT IS C0f61 STENT WIDI SECTI0il XI e STESS IffTEI611Y FACTOR CALCULATI0f6 ARE VALID TO AT LEAST 80% OF VESSEL WAU_ (ACTUAL ESULTS OBTAINED AT 900 e ECEfff TERmL StiOCK TEST SHOWED AREST AT 90% OF VESSEL Wall e EGlT GERfW110RK Sil0WS #1 If1CREASIIG TOUGifESS ZOIE AS CRACKS GET DEEP, DUE T0 LDER CDISTRAliff. Dils ACTS TO IflCREASE TOUGifESS FOR CRACK DEPTHS GREATER THAN 70% OF WALL MKIf6 PBETRATION fDRE DIFFICULT, e FOR BASE ItTAL DE FRACTUE TOUGHESS NEAR THE SURFACE IS SIGfil-FIC#lTLY IfPROVED OVER TE QUARTER THIOGESS PROPERTIES, ADDIf6 EVB1 FDE mRGIfl. [

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se e qsg.. m fr s PROBABILITY OF FLAW EXTEllSION DUE TO C 0 0 L D 0 )l N TRANSIENTS t PRESENTATI0il FOR NRC BY T il E ll E S T I ll G H O U S E OllNER'S GROUP AND '~ W E S T I ll G il 0 U S E

DUTLINE e GENERAL f1 E T H O D O L'0 G Y e GENERAL RESULTS e SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON EACH CATEGORY OF C00LDOWN TRANSIENT -EXCESSIVE FEEDWATER -STEAM GENERATOR TUBE R U P T U R E ( SGTR ) -l0CA - S l: C O N il A R Y ll i l' R I'. S S il R I / A i 10 N e CONCLUSIONS

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~ v GENERAL METHODOLOGY i k. l x ;. -> I e USED TRANSIENT SCENARIOS.< IDENTIFIED i-IN THE MAY 1982 SUBMiTTAT' i i !j ^ e FOR EACH

SCENARIO, MEAN PARAMETERS WERE DEFINED I

/ AND Tp SELECTED FOR EACH MEAN e i SCENARIO BASED UPON SENSITIVITY STUDIES AND EXISTING ANALYSIS i l e NRC PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE MECHANICS 1 CURVES ENTERED TO FIND P(FAILURE / TRANSIENT OCCURRENCE) 1 e, i 4 TP x CP j e PE = j I 1 i i .... _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ -.. _. _., ~.. -. _ _ _ _... - _.

4 I KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS AND UNITS ~ TP TRANSIENT PROBABILITY (REA'CTOR YEAR) c / EXPONENTIAL TIME CONSTANT ( M I N -1 ) FT FINAL TEMPERATURE ( F) ~b T=FT + ( T - F T-) E 3 CP CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF-FLAW EXTENSION GIVEN THAT TRANSIENT OCCURS (REACIOR Y F. A R ~1 ) PE PROBABILITY OF FLAW EXTENSION (REACTOR Y E A R-1 ) NEG NEGLIGIBLE PROBABILITY WHEN COMPARED TO OTHER CATEGORIES OF ~ T il E EVENT. Sill C SMALL STEAM BREAK INSIDE C O N T A l,N M E N T DH DECAY HEAT b

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SPECIFIC INFORMAT10f1 ON E'XCESSIVE FEEDWATER THIS CATEGORY OF C00LDOWN TRANSIENT IS JUDGED TO HAVE o 0 A fiEGLIGIBLE CONTRIBUTION TO OVERALL RISK TO THE VESSEL - PROBABILITY OF EXCESSIVE FEED TRANSIENTS WHICH REACil 260 ~10 290*F RANGE IS ABOUT 1x10'7. SAME PROHAllli.IlY FOR OTHER THREE TRANSIErif CATEGORIES IS 3 TO 5 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE HIGHER ( REFERENCE MAY 1982 SUBMITTAL ). CP'S SIf11LAR.THEREFORE, PE'S FOR EXCESSIVE FEEDWATER ARE NEGLIGIBLE. ) e 9

SPECIFIC INFORMATION ON SECONDARY DEPRESSURIZATION e DETERMINATION OF g AND TF

1. 0 W E S T T E M P E R A T il R E ATTAINED Tp

= DURING TRANSIENI g 2 = TIME TO TERMINATE h UNCONTROLLED AUXILIARY (FEEDWATER TO SG'S OR I ll F IIMF CONSTANl A S S 0 0 I A i l 1) WITH THE "INF" SCENARIO. WHICHEVER IS LARGER b e CP FIGURED USING NRC P = 10 0 0 PSI CURVES l

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SPECIFIC INFORf1ATION ON LOCA e DETERMINATI.ON OF g AND Tp BASED UPON SOLUTIONS OF SIMPLIFIED ENERGY AND MASS BALANCE DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS METHOD COMPARES FAVORABLY WITH-DETAILED ANALYSES 4 e L0CAS WITH EFFECTIVE DIAMETER GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES JUDGED TO HAVE A NEGLIGIBLE PROBAB.ILITY OF CAUSING' VESSEL FAILURE WHEN COMPARED TO LOCAS SMALLER THAN 1.5 INCHES. LARGELOCAS =? C O N S I D E R A B L Y L O W E R FREQUENCY (TP) 0FOCCURRENCETHAN W A S H - 14 0 0 V A L U E O F ~4x10~4

e L A RGE LOCAS => L O W PRESSU RES / ARREST 1 LARGE-LOCAS => W A R.'l PRESTRESSING GENE-RALLY APPLICA-BLE. .0PERATOR CAN'T INFLUENCE PRESSURE 91GNIFI-C A N T L Y ( T O P 0 T E l4 T I A L L Y NEGATE WARM PRESTRESSIl1G i e " ROLL-0FF" 0F 2 DECADES OF PROBABILITY PER DECADE DECREASE IN f ASSUMED IN ORDER TO DETERMINE CP FOR LOCA SCENARIOS i 1 ,,. ~,.. _.. _.. _,

CONCLUSIONS e THE GENERAL RESULT CURVE ALREADY SHOWN GIVES THE TOTAL PROBABILITY j i 0F VESSEL FLAW EXTENSION AS A FUNCTION .0 F-RTNDT. e COUPLING WOG PTE AND NRC PFE INDICATES THAT MEAN RTNDT'S OF 260 TO 290 F YIELD PROBABILITIES OF FLAW EXTENSION OF 10 T0 10-6 ~ (SECONDARY DEPRESSURIZ.ATION PRESSURE EFFECT INCLUDED). i

UtLLIS W buttulitb vnLut u rug 7 e DEFINITI0ff 2575 PRESSURE I 2 ET;, L RTIST1 I WT i i CK i i NITIATION 1-URVE l 1 I 1 I T I T T'IMIT LIMITy LIMIT 2 A TEMPERATURE 0 f0T.- Teigi7, 1 e THICKNESS EFFECT S SNE e LIFETIME (RTET) ffFECT FOR SAME VESSEL THICKNESS SURFACE RTf0T a a o A; M [RTgl-THICKNESS e CONCLUSIONS - BOTH EFFECTS ARE RELATED TO THERMAL STRESSES - l!FETIME (RTET) EFF5 CTS A MORE SO THAN VESSEL THICKNESS IS REASONABLE PARAMETER FOR SCREENING BASED UPON CRACK INITIATION, BUT VARIATIONS - RTET IN THE EXACT VALUE t%Y EXIST FOR A GIVEN VESSEL. - VARIATIONS NOT QUANTIFIABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO INSUFFICIENT DATA.

Enl VS, CONSERVATIVE RTf0T VALUES ARE USED IN PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE WCHN1ICS e W#l RTt0T CALCULATI0ils TO CONSIDER VARIATIONS IN: + COPER, flICEL [ +IfilTIALRTNDT + FLUENCE + NDUlff 0F IrYADIATI0il DN' AGE (oRTf0T) NO THE ASSOCIATED /ECOWB0ED e NRC APPROACH USED WAN RTIOT SCREEHING LIMITS SHOULD BE EASED UPON ENl RTIOT FOR A GIVEN

VESSEL, IN THE COUPLING OF THE }1 PROBABILISTIC TRANSIBfT EVALUATION W e

NRC PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE FECHN1ICS TREATENT, EAN RT nT VALUES OF N 260*F -> 290 F RESULT FROM SAFETY GOAL OF 10-7 *-10-6 U OF 270 F--+ 290 F IS CONSISTBfT WITH CONSERVATIVE RTNDT 0 e FEN 1 RTIST 0F ~330 Fd 350 F USING GLITHRIE ENVUPPER B0lia CURVES, 0 0 SCREENING VALUES OR COMPARE TO W AN RTNDT e COMPARE TEAN RTNDT SCREENING VALUES - TO CONSERVATIVE RTNDT CONSERVATIVE RTNDT H REC 0tTENDS USE OF CONSERVATIVE VALUES SINCE SUFFICIENT DATA IS CURRENTLY UNAVAILABLE FOR USE OF ffAN VALUES

, ; yz, DETER..WISTIC FPKi1E IEDWilCS EVAllMTIQi OEUECTIVE: TO DETER 11[E PRESSLE-1BPEPATURE LIlilTS I% SED L IlilTIATIQi FOR SORTIiE.,PPDBABILISTIC TRN61 BITS -ASSUPTIU6: }- ~ e STEP OWLES Ill TUP, FRG1550 F e FULL RCS FLD1 e GEGETRY, l%TERIAL PROPERTIES NO FLLBCE FOR REPESBffATIVE " LEAD" VESSELS a 5 EFP/ FfU1 TOI%Y e R.G.1,99 IPRADIATIQi In"Yf TRBO ORES & 1[ LIM f1108. TRB0 QRES hcl APPLICAELE e EVALLMTE CPACK IllITIATIQi VALIS s 25% T VESSO l!AllllilO0ESS lEll00: DEER 11tE CRITICAL PESSUE FOR EA01 TIET%L TP#61Bif g'

PRESSURE-TEMPERATURE LIMITS FOR SORTING PROBABILISTIC TRANSIENTS FOR REPRESENTATIVE " LEAD" VESSELS AT 5 EFPY FROM PRESENT, /- 2400-I / / ,/ ~/ l V I 2000 i / 8,/ I Region of Region of Potential /. No Crack Initiation 1600 - Challenge o " Conservative" i Ei Crack Initiation i / '/ bIl200 1.ine for Sorting L k l i ~ l / ,/ / 800 Calculated I / Crack l / Initiation I e' Curve i< /. V / l. / 400 / g / / Vl / 0 8 I i e ri i s 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Temperature

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