ML20054J034

Opines Re Calculations of site-specific Spectra & Seismic Risk for Seismic Category I Structures Outside Std Plant Portion of Facility.High Degree of Conservatism Built Into Assumed Seismic Risk Acceptable

ML20054J034
Person / Time
Site:	Wolf Creek
Issue date:	04/24/1982
From:	Maxwell J AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
To:	Ray J Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
References
ACRS-CT-1446, NUDOCS 8206270087
Download: ML20054J034 (4)

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AXWELL OEDLOGIST l WESTERN MILLS DRIVE sim, TEus vBrai gy April 24, 1982 Kr. J. J. Ray Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission H Street WashinEton, D. C. 20555

Subject:

Wolf Creek site visit and review, April 21, 1982 - Seismic and Geologic Considerations

Dear Mr. Ray:

As I understand it, the only open question con-cernin6 Eeology and seismology of the Wolf Creek plant and site concerns the calculation of site-specific spectra and seismic risk for seismic Category I struc-tures outside the standard plant portion of the facility.

In my opinion the high degree of conservatism built into the assumed seismic risk, together with the wide margin of uncertainty in relating spectra to seismic loading of structures suggests the current design for peak horizontal acceleration for SSE of 0.12, as carried out by the applicant, is adequate.

In support of the above opinion I cite the follow-ing points:

1.

The seismic risk at the plant site is extreme-ly low, a.

Presentation by Frank Wilson of the Kansas Geological Survey, who emphasized the absence of surface, subsurface or geophysical evidence for faulting near the plant site, and the absence of seismic activity in the 19 counties of southeastern Kansas, including Coffey County.

Dr. Wilson noted that the distribution of micro-earthquakes observed.on the state network close-ly approximates historical earthquakes, and that neither has been recorded from southeastern Kansas.

b.

Note also that the controlling earthquakes, the 1867 listed as intensity VIII, and the 1906, intensit quakes (y VII, together with 8 other felt earth-10 of 25 total in the sta ed in an east-west belt in northeastern Kansas, and that a concentration of microearthquakes DESIGNATED ORIGINAL C206270087 Certified By-Mj9

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Mr. J. J. Ray April 24, 1982 occurs in the same area.

This reinforces the opinion expressed in my letter of 11/26/79 to Mr. Harold Etherington that the controlling faults trend easterly rather than north-south, the trend of ancient bounding faults of the Nemaha uplift.

The current regional maximum compressive stress is oriented east-west (Zoback and Zoback, Jour. Geophys. Research, Nov. 1980, p. 6148), hence, reactivation of easterly trending normal faults would be pre-dicted.

There is no indication that such faults exist in the Coffey County region.

c. The above letter alco notes that the 1867 earthquake should probably be listed as in-tensity VII as in earlier catalogues, rather than elevated to intensity VII-VIII, as in NUREG/ CR-0294.

2.

Gross assumptions and highly imprecise calcula-tions of seismic spectra are involved, especially when based, as here, on intensities deduced from a limited

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number of newspaper reports.

Dr. Trifunac emphasized this point during the review in Elmira.

Respectfully submitted John C. Maxwell Consultant c.c. Dr. Kerr l

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J O H,N C. MAXWELL G CC LC GIST 53 2 2 wCETERN MILLS ORIVC AU STIN. TtxAS 7 8731 512*454 1939 November 26, 1979 Mr. Harold Etherington Advisory Committee on Reactor.Jafeguards Nuclear.degula tory Commission Mail Stop H 1016 Washin6 ton, D. C. 20555

Subject:

Additional comments on my letter of October 1, 1979 referring to the Wolf Creek Froject At the time of writing my let ter of October 1, 1979 I 6

did not have available to me NUREG/CR-0294, containing infor-mation on damage reports relating to the 1867 Manhattan, Kansas earthquake.

I have now had the chance to examine this material.

It appears that the authors have thoroughly research-ed the available newspaper sources and have produced a reason-able isoseismal map for this earthquake (figure 3, paEe 17 in the NUREG/CR-0294).

On the basis of this study the loca-tien of the 1867 epicenter was shifted about 20 miles south-(-

eastward to the vicinity of the subcrop of the north-south trending Humboldt fault, bordering the buried Nemeha uplif t

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on the east. side.

It was further surgested that the intensity of the earthqueke was in the range of VII-VIII rather than VII as previously listed.

The isoseisnal lines shown in figure 3 are reasonably well established for the eastern half of the figure, but the shape and extent of the woutern half is unknown.

Note also the highly eloncated intensity VII zone, which could extend west-ward or south.Jestward for an unknown distence.

Fron reading the accompanying damage reports, it seems to me that the choice of a location for the epicenter within this 150-mile lont, zone of intensity VII is quite arbitrary.

For example, at the western end of the sone, location 20, it was noted that:

" train on Facific Railroad violent.ly rocked by shock, locomo-tive was stopped and train men abandoned cab for fear the boiler was about to blow up," and to the east, at location 13, Ieavenworth, Kansas, " man shaken off load of hay; two contiguous buildings lifted up, separated two inches, settled back; nearly everything toppled over in private homes; several chimneys overthrown."

At the site chosen for the epicenter near Wamego (number 30 on fi ure 3) the damage to buildings appeared to 6

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t Fr. Harold Etherington November 26, 1979 g

be comparable to that observed throughout this long zone.

The apparent reason for locating the epicenter here, other than its nearness to the trace of the Humboldt fault, was an observa-tien that "on the farm of John Cotton.... during the earth-guake the earth opened and water was thrown out of the opening in considenable cuantities.

At another place not far distant from the above, the earth opened and fire and smoke issued out.

So one of our papers states".

To this phenoT.enon the writers assign a questioned intennity VIII.

If this were a bonafide major occurrence of sand boils in unconsolidated sediments, then an assignment of intensity VIII would probably be justified.

However, in view of the very similar degree of damage throughout the isoseismal VII zone, and the lack of evidence of greater dan. age in the Wacego area it would seem to me more probable that the observed phenomena were related to escape of marsh gas and accompanying water.

I see no compelling reason for raising the intensity in this area to VIII.

If the 1867 earthquake resulted from movement on the Humboldt fault, it would indeed be logical to assume similar motion could occur along the general extension of that fault southward, atout 75 kilometers west of the Wolf Creek site.

f Figure 3 of NUREG/CR-0666 shows that this fault is discontinu-ous and the continuity and displacement diminishes in a souther-ly direction.

Furthermore, the locations of the three earth-quakes for which isoceismels were prepared (1d67,1875, and

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1936) lie on an east-west trend approximating the VII iso-I seismal zone'of the 3e67 earthquake.

The center trace of the isoseismal zone and eqicenters of the 1867, 1875 and 1906 earthquakes are plotted on figure 4 NUREG/CR-0666 (photostat 3

attached).

The possibility that the lE67 and 1906 earthquakes are related to the basic intrusive rocks of the Keweenawan mafic igneous belt, as initially 1ostulated by the applicent

,in quite apparent.

To me it seems more likely, however, that these and other earthquakes shown on figure 2, NUREG/CR-0294 occurred along an easterly trending fault or zone of faults approximately paralleling the VII iscseismal zone of the 1867 earthquake.

Multiple shocks accompanying that earthquake, plus one aftershock some 25 hours2.893519e-4 days <br />0.00694 hours <br />4.133598e-5 weeks <br />9.5125e-6 months <br /> later, also seem to have been distributed along this zone.

A map summarizing all known earthquakes for eastern North America, intensity I through XII for the period 1534-1971 has been published by Lynn Sykes (Reviews of Geophysics and Space Physics, November, 1976, page 648).

Two observations of particular interest for the Wolf Creek area are:

(1) that the 20 or so counties in the southeast corner of Kansas, and the adjacent areas in Missouri and Oklahoma, have been free of observed seismic activity, and (2) that the most obvious

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Mr. Harold Etherin6 ton November 26, 1979 seismic zones trend east-west to east-southeast, reflecting the Ouachita-Wichita structures and the Manhattan and other earthquake trends in Kansas and adjacent states.

There is no obvious seismic reflection of the north-south trending Nemaha l

structure.

It seems unlikely, therefore, that large earth-quakes of the Manhattan, Kansas type will occur southward along southerly extending faults corresponding to the Humboldt fault of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska.

For this reason and because J find the evidence for an intensity VIII assignment for the 1867 earthquake to be unconvincing, I believe the assigned SSE value of 0.12g is still reasonable for the Wolf Creek site.

In his letter of June 29, 1979 to the NRC Commissioners Mr. William H. Ward, attorney for MACEA brought up another point, also touched in my October 1, 1979 letter, namely that the regional structural setting of the Wolf Creek Project is similar to that of Tyrone, for which the SER recommended an SSE of 0.2g horizontal acceleration.

Both the Wolf Creek and Tyrone sites are in the Central Stable Region tectonic province.

Both are also in regions which are seismically quiet.

No historical earthquakes have been reported within 100 miles of the Tyrone site and only 10 earthquakes of intensity IV or

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greater have been reported within 200 miles of that site.

The SER (pabe 2-16) says, "in our review of the vibratory ground s

motion potential for the Tyrone site, we took the position that an intensity MM VII-VIII event could occur at the site based on the criteria defined in appendix A to 10 CFR part 100.

In our evaluation the resulting acceleration value due to this intensity would be 0.2g".

Using the same line of reasoning it is apparently true that an intensity of 0.2g would now be similarly applied to the '.'olf Creek site by the staff.

This appears to be a atter of accepted policv. not specifi.cally required by the tectonic setting of the Wolf Creek site.

Respectfully subn.itted:

I' John C. Maxwell Consultant

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g3cous r.his w it h gss r ostdatme the n : d recion of low. statty m Vermont I h..s new and hatorie data. sep.irati.m of North \\it. erica fr.", \\'rica are found e se i

l indicate that the ll.uton.0;t.swa sennw /a:.e n soaiposed et M hite \\1"xtam ni q"na series of Nea i ngl., :d. m the M two dntinct tones of high acinity one estend4ng from r?l.

teacpa 1 lid! of wethern Gaebee, aa.t ateeg ;l.e \\ cu i n.

.1 shore Manachusetts mio central New Ilampshire and.inoiber seamount sh.un ti s. ure in 1 he % hite Alqmtam m...

i estendmg natihwest from northern New York state to Kak. series estend, NNW across New flam; white and ranges er.

land I ale. Ontario. A s w ill be dneuwed 1. iter. howes cr. aliahe t rom about.'00 m 3 Ithe untial sige at ri!!mg of % nh i

rods postdating the openmg of the western Atlantie estend Amer.ca from Attical to.thout loti m 3 fl.J.m./ un./1.i aerou the p.ip in seisnue.netn 63 n Vermont and western New 1977l A small percentage of Ihe radiometrie ages arc lietoec*

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llampshire, 220 and 2M ng 't he Al.uncrepan thus a proar of a! ei<

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matie and ultramatie rods in southern Quenn. trend % \\u l

ro.mect /curnu Rn. b m A ri. I.ncl.m.1

,,,,m n. inh of New II.mipshire to.\\lomreal. t o hon. inst -

m J anurhcin yuchcc di.oremes are found m the western part of the \\larieregue Although maio tectonnm and magm.itnm are mmments prounce D,c!.i. l so~j i he '3r '**% ratio of 6 *o4 e -o.cn* m 5

il ought to hase ended m most of the eastern (*mted States m luu Anos ei al ll4*d) lor rod

• of the \\1oWeteet m I^ rc e