ML20052D685

Comments on Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Seismic Ground Motion Hazard at Facilities.Signed Form 148 for 1 Day Consulting Fee Encl

ML20052D685
Person / Time
Site:	Zion  File:ZionSolutions icon.png
Issue date:	01/25/1982
From:	Pomeroy P RONDOUT ASSOCIATES, INC.
To:	Griesmeyer J Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards
References
ACRS-CT-1410, NUDOCS 8205070103
Download: ML20052D685 (4)

Text

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Im =c*n e P.o. aus 2M, mies Raty, b Y d 1Ns4 January 25, 1982 RECEtygn.

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Seer 'J. Ortesamyer:

le asserdance with so.r Ictter of Deceaewr 21. 1961 I lose vestm ed Glo aggespriate sections of the Zion PRA et ey smerks uhtch I kneerded to Prof. Skret.

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Ceaments en the Probabilistic Assessment of the $eimis Erw.e i

NDtion Nazard at the F1em Nucl0er Power Plant, Lake County.1111e'-

I have dealt almost esclusively with Section 7.9.1 entitled '$ctsak &n Ihtten Ihaard at Zion lluclear Peser Plant site' since 1) that portion rf th r1 port Alls within se area of empertise and 2) the conclusions of trat partle-tem prehund effects en the later probabilistic analyses.

Sectior 7. 6.1 m :

prepared by the telden, Celerado effice of Dears & Moore presumably wer the direction of Dr. Ashin ficGuire with Prof. Otto tuttit ser<ing as a seismetocc ~

esasuttant.

i In gameral. the methodolog spelied in the analysis in Sectior. 7.5.1 con-bras to the present state of the art end, in sy estiastion, the cargiusiorn, are est P;w-iate 4r this type of approach. Ihmever, there are so many assump-tiens in the snelyses that I questien the usefulness of the report as en inen to the ettentific decisten asking process. The'tapittattens of the assanctiom are set discussed nor are ispiltettees of possitie altsenettve assweettons.

Sc ie of the assusyttens how toen deelt erith te other ACR5 eeliberations while othe tese met.

I will try to IIst the assumptione sad tedicate areas that reevice further elettention.

I have underiteed the assemptions taken from the test.

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het blst geregreper-teste assempttens of the seismic hazard aseet.

1.

h.af.Enhatia~t fleure eartheqppt are delleested kr setamicit.y and testants avletan. Stie tMs statenest to elemet en est of feita ammes to seisseleg8cel esmuntty. esse ts essestdy evidence met prewtems sa s-esetty stone does est ettoeste heure sattue ese end. utile tectonic evi-ease et eastemt hattles is mundset, les setettements to presset day seis-aktty en ter them stuer.

If GMs cesseetten aere met ases, nest e o the t*

ptisettens ter pseattitatic estests elsk teeWt 2.

Ma nahatin framanar of eartammaan meettaeus is estnames,tc esae; j

age en senseammend $p a anansand gemasangla0 matrthstten. Ehet is the evi-mee met a treasseep ageusettel to appropetete? What are the teplicattees of a ses-teenested engemenetet dietettutten?

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eit me estammesasc memes of asitti and h nape imW h me asiaans sai est emeest fur L 1115 asis au the ansfel stela pena. mar ang amt tenertamL tt somme to ene ht te set h m may are mes tapertant 99 me mesmyttens.teku happen to be ursag 6

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w -wmams ' rsem h="$5h a'

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o 7.

Three alternative twootAenes vers emanim. for satsart

.wm a the victattr of the sita and these '_n^Jwses am assioned a suQtd' aruhabl111,r of 0.L 0.5. ep4 0.3.

Ihat i f these s ejen. w pece46 t i t ti e ; e -

e ce pletely tacorrect? Ihst is the effect en the we ly,n ? tee er f tM us Elemenste Arch Zone and the Wiconsta Arct>#1chiget hsir. Zone? Certa hly >;

Bettif and IIerenna who sely httmed a #srthern 1111 mis roae and tie Cantu.

Stable regten. Ilse tes the aree of.he Nutt11-Memana rone conry with 6 t

l ef D e Wilcen ta Arch Iene' I f there is a di f fe renc e. how does ti.r t e f fec t tu l

emelyses? ere the boundaries of the Wissensin Arch Zone ams the Wscw.te Art' maktena ansia Eene real and. if se, uh?

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M 5 -m11e meant sefsanamaic ammes eiert te eefined whte,one

" ' ^ ^cate 1areer for --- 11er) seismic "ord at the site, It is felt (!) tM:

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con he " ^*1fied en a - 1eeical basis...

hone of these actes.

9erludlag te enes used to the snelysts, can he justtfied ce a gector,'cai bas e my esclude some and tetleer others?

C.

Sher 6. Seismecity Doreneters.

Gew is seisste activits rete deterwined? It seule be lapossibie for a ses.sgoctellst to ftpes it est from the discussten 1a this sectiec.

1.

S'twre) endifkattens are ande to the activity retas seeorted b M11 and hesmia. Other them to.1 en eage 6 utich is a us19e correctica, aWP le ts. I en page 6 usere the estivig rates for this esport een calcw 18h8 Ser sg14 tesesse eartheastes of smaller amenitude rarely seese strwctv-d egge. Met enes that tese to en ele activity rates? that is tse effect of assetatets to est vtty reessfle og 3 es pege 3. uses11p a is me cumwistles sh of egats poseer M or aquel to a gluem ag.

Is there a purpose in esfloteg e es the emment sensor of eartaemetes of het enee enemitmer og ene.

if es ahet is it? Set is me eftset en tins ses% of ertetten la t selves?

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meer 7. perspaph '- 7 '

' ^ amm mesttak qL ens ass 1med enim

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A M110's addstim 11).M Bet is Se artepass that there is a t[

ene er my et tasse ames7 I toen me espasses that Dr. aattit has nacencee Det to eastd to efeBS. Met is to efGeet se 993 analpees if teore is ao ab est &endde afhander q ^ ^^1tts alsV ^^- uns ~ --- to semisas; w-euer te venge S.4 to 6.2. Met fs the ofenct a the endly ses of 90s Getrtut9 pet By 90s tag amt enester destrttutten?

E % S. 3084p404 H AM.12dEmmentles was emer Det M imeans asa aartinskJarnstaans da No gam 1kes senesens e esser room af.Annastemum autherthsemprest aseveteseem tot et in est tams samt Ba h mentmidst.Desendsudaemtagend5 h- - -

miselt h

• erd w =, The siselifrica a:sumetton we5 judyd (I) _to tMe aporcen j

l g C7 whom?

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hge 9. Estiestian of Ground Motion.

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- ^211's y estientas a sustained level of acceleration corresponcin:,

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- t --" te "w r-31eration time history. What is the valid-fly of Ge 'teery' of 'sesteined' 'evel of acceleration? Why was the ve)me 1.37 1

used at all espitados?

I h ;page 18. a facter of 0.9 is introduced as e correction for a rendcx.:

Whd esamleratim. IBet is the dedvetten of that factor?

h page 12. a hrther modification is made to ' account for the Iypotheses

• t Set effective peek acceleretten any be limited and limits are chosen as follows:

h archability e.5p aos 90s 0.8s 90 205 tomt is thq effect if the typothesis is completely wrong and on infintte g has en associated prehebility of IAN?

h pege 13. perepresh 3. cartein esealderations estilned led the Domes 4 ten of "w TERA cur.e; and use re-gifts.taand aslaim as the Rett 11 estiastas. Butt 11.estientes or modified Mutt 11 est9astes? Bet begpens to tho' analysis if TERA curves are used?

De esseertes the essenets outlined here saggest that while the methodology is 'etete of the art'. there ese es easy assesytfons'end judgements (subjective l

er other) that are ande that"the, esefulness of this emelysis is open to question.

j W1y. te other parts of the lien FM ve1y hoevily en this laput data.

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east asse Wled, systeettic sessent of the emelysis, as well as its assump-tiens arid their effects steeld be certataed. The report is incomplete as it steeds sad its ungselifted seesptance is not marrauted eithoup its conclusions l

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