ML20049J012
| ML20049J012 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Waterford  |
| Issue date: | 02/28/1982 |
| From: | LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CO. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20049J006 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8203110170 | |
| Download: ML20049J012 (89) | |
Text
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i waterfonl _
l steam electric station unit no. 3_ ,
Joc.ce: 'No. 50-382 9
- 9 EVACLATION TIME ESTIMATE l
l 3}T
_OlANA DOW:R
& C': COYLDANY
- Revision ..
horuary. _982 pur'aQ 88As8aK08888882 F PDR
i l WATERFORD STEAM ELECTRIC STATION
[ Docket No. 50-382]
EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE LOUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CWPA!W
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REVISED FEBRUARY, 1982
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e t f4 ABSTRACT OVERVIEW This report is an estimate of the time required to evacuate various areas within a 10 mile plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) surrounding Louisiana Power & Light Company's (LP&L) Waterford 3 Nuclear Steam Electric Station. LP&L has developed these estimates to provide the necessary demographic, transportation and evacuation time estimate information required by LP&L and state and local officials to decide the appropriateness of evacuation as a protective action in the event of an emergency at the nuclear generating station. The time estimate, therefore, is a tool for local officials to use to judge the advisability of an evacuation under actual conditions. In order to maintain its use fulness as a decision tool, it will be re' . sed and updated as significant changes occur in the population, the highway network and public notifi stion capabilities.
The time estimates are included for the evacuation of the resident, transient and special institution (i.e., schools, hospitals, etc) populations. Estimates are also provided for the time needed for notification of the population and confirmation that the people have been evacuated.
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BACKGROUND An evacuation time estimate for the 10 mile area around Waterford 3 was originally submitted by LP&L in June 1980 in response to an NRC request in December 1979. Since the June 1980 submittal, several developments have occurred. First, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Federal Emergency Management Agency (FD1A) issued the final guidance on the format requirements for evacuation time estimates. Secondly, an outdoor public warning system will be installed. Finally, the parish emergency plans, including detailed plans for evacuation, were completed. Because of these recent developments, LP&L decided to revise
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the Evacuation Time Estimate Report.
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o s This report incorporates the changes needed due to the three major developments since the original submittal. It also reflects NRC's advice concerning portions of the methodology used in analyzing the adverse weather scenario. Further, the revised estimate was developed in consultation with the Parish Civil Defense Directors in order to incorporate the methods and policies which would actually be utilized should an evacuation take place.
METi!0D0 LOGY Calculating an evacuation time estimate is, in large part, a traffic engineering problem, ie, accommodating everyone 's vehicles on the roadway system. To carry out this task, LP&L utilized a computer simulation model. The computer model estimated the times required to evacuate four 900 sector areas within 2, 5 and 10 miles of the site. The model is a dynamic, time responsive system which =an account for the movement and delay of vehicles on a minute by minute basis. The use of a computer simulation model offers two main advantages. First, it approximates, as realistically as possible, actual vehicle movement, allowing for the identification of roadways and intersections where traf fic control would be needed or where routing should be modified to maintain vehicle movement. Secondly, it is relatively easy to update and revise through the use of new assumptions, such as changes to the population levels and the routing of evacuees.
The input to the model consisted of actual demographic and transportation in forma tion. Demographic information utilized estimates of the 1982 population in the 10 mile EPZ, information from the 1970 census for the area and information collected in field studies. The demographic information was used to determine the number of vehicles which would be leaving the 10 mile area.
The roadway network data consisted of identifying the major routes which could be utilized for evacuation, as well as roadway widths (number of lanes), the capacity of the roadways (number of vehicles / hour), the type of roadway (two lane rural, multi-lane, expressway) and the average design
e 6 speed for each route. In addition, information was collected on the intersections along each route, the traffic controls at each intersection, and the identification of any other areas which would potentially experience traffic delays or congestion.
The demographic and roadway network information were combined and placed into the computer model, along with certain assumptions, to develop the evacuation tire estimates for 12 specified sectors within the 10 mile emergency planning zone, The transient, rerident and institutional populations were assigned to various evacuation routes, and times were calculated for their evacuation from each area under both clear and adverse weather conditions.
STUDY RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The study estimated evacuation times within each of the prescribed sectors reaching out to 10 miles from Waterford 3. The times for the evacuation sectors varied frsa a minimum of one hour and forty-five minutes for NW 0-2 and SW 0-2 sector in clear weather conditions to a maximum seven hours and thirty minutes for the NW 0-5 and NW 0-10 mile sectors in adverse weather conditions. The estimated time to evacuate the entire 10 mile area was five hours and fifteen minutes in clear weather conditions and seven hours and thirty minutes in adverse weather conditions . Information for each of the 12 evacuation sectors is included in Table 1.
l This study is an important portion of the emergency planning for the area i
around Waterford 3. The decision to undertake evacuation either as the only protective response or in combination with other protective responses, is one which must be made in light of conditions as they are
- ocurring at the time of an emergency. An updated evacuation time estimate will oe a valuable tool in assisting parish officials in making that decision.
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IDUISIANA POWER & LIGHT CQtPANY WATERFORD STEAt ELECTRIC STATION UNIT No. 3 EVACUATION TDtE ESTDtATE TABLE OF CONTENTS l
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
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2.0 RESULTS OF EVACUATION TDtE ESTDtATES 4
3.0 ASSIMPTIONS AND METHOD 01DGY 4
3.1 BASIC ASSutPTIONS 9
3.2 TRAFFIC FLOW MODEL 3.3 ESTDs ATES OF NthBER OF VEHICLES 14 20 3.4 NOTIFICATION AND MOBILIZATION 24 3.5 TRAFFIC FIDW ASSDSPTIONS 31 3.6 CONFIRSATION TDtES 32 3.7 SPECIAL SITUATIONS 35 REFERENCES Example of Evacuation Time A-1 Appendix A Estimate Computation Example of Residential Vehicle Calculation B-1 Appendix B
LIST OF TABLES Table, Title
- 1. SIMt ARY OF EVACUATION TIMES BY EVACUATION SECTORS
- 2. TIME ESTIM ATES TO EVACUATE CmMUNITIES AND INDUSTRIAL AREAS WITHIN THE 10 MILE EPZ
- 3. TIME TO EVACUATE CIMULATIVE PERCENT OF VEHICLES FRm EACH EVACUATION SECTOR
- 4. ASSthED TDtE OF NOTIFICATION FOR CmMUNITIES WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3
- 5. ROADWAY NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS
- 6. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIPS - TWO LANE RURAL ROAD - N0ltt AL WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 7. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIPS - MULTI-LANE ROADWAY - N0lti AL WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 8. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIPS - EXPRESSWAY -
N0ltiAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 9. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION -
TWO LANE RURAL ROAD - ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 10. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION -
MULTI-LANE ROADWAY - ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 11. DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION -
EXPRESSWAY - ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS
- 12. LENGTH AND IDCATION OF M AJOR QUEUES (OVER 50 VEHICLES)
- 13. TOTAL NINBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATED FRm EACH EVACUATION SECTOR AND TRAFFIC GENERATOR
- 14. PERM ANENT RESIDENT POPULATION BY TRAFFIC GENERATORS
- 15. INDUSTRIAL PIANTS POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3
- 16. TRANSIENT POPULATION BY EVACUATION GENERATORS
- 17. SPECIAL INSTITUTION POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3
- 18. SPECIAL INSTITUTION POPULATION BY TRAFFIC GENERATORS
- 19. CONFISH ATION TIME ESTD1 ATES FOR CmMUNITIES WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3
LIST OF FIGURES Figure Title
- 1. SECTOR BOUNDARIES FOR EVACUATION TDIE ESTDtATES
- 2. TRAFFld GENERATORS FOR EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
- 3. EVACUATION ROADWAY NEWORK
- 4. TOTAL RESIDENT P0FULATION BY EVACUATION SECTOR
- 5. IDTAL PEAK TRANSIENT POPULATION BY EVACUATION SECTOR
- 6. TOTAL SPECIAL INSTITUTION POPULATION BY EVACUATION SECTOR A-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE, SCHEM ATIC OF SOUTH 0-2 SECTOR A-2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE, FLOW CHART OF MODEL SEQtENT A-3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE, FIDW CHART OF MODEL SEQt ENT A-4 EVACUATION TIME ESTDtATE, FILW CHART OF MODEL SEQtENT
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Louisians Power and Light's (LP&L) Waterford Steam Electric Station Unit No. 3 is located on the west (right descending) bank of the Mississippi River at River Mile 129.6 between Baton Rouge, Louisiana and New Orleans, Louisiana. The site is in the northwestern portion of St Charles Parish Louisiana, between the towns of Killona and Taft and approximately three miles southeast of the St John the Baptist Parish boundary.
Near the Waterford site are several large industrial facilities, including Waterford 1 and 2 (0.4 miles west-northwest of the site),
Littly Gypsy Steam Electric Station (0.8 miles north-northwest of the site and across the river from Waterford 3), Beker Industries, a fertilizer manufacturer (0.6 miles east-southeast), and Hooker Chemical Company (0.8 miles east-southeast).
Transportation facilities near the Waterford site include the Mississippi River (0.2 miles north-northeast of the site), Louisiana Highway 18 (0.1 miles north-northeast), Louisiana Highway 3127 (1.1 miles to the south-southwest of the site), Louisiana Highway 628 (0.7 miles nor th-nor theas t , across the river) and the Missouri-Pacific Railroad (0.5 miles south-southwest).
Major urban centers in the region of the site include New Orleans (approximately 25 miles east of the site) and Baton Rouge (approximately 50 miles west-northwest). Communities in St Charles Parish near the site include Killona (0.9 miles west-northwest), Montz (1.0 miles north),
Norco (1.9 miles east), and Bahnville (3.7 miles east-southeast).
Laplace (4.7 miles north) is located in St John the Baptist Parish.
The purpose of this report is to provide estimates of the time required to evacuate various areas within 10 miles of Louisiana Power & Light's Waterford Steam Electric Station Unit No. 3. The evacuation time estimates have been prepared by LP&L in conformance with the guidelines in Appendix 4 of NUREG-0654, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Pv-rer Plants.\l) In addition, the estimates were developed in
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consultation with of ficials of St John the Baptist and St Charles Parishes (2) in order to incorporate the methods and policies which they would use if an evacuation were ever required.
The report includes the fc11owing:
a description of the assumptions, (such as the time of day the evacuation would take place, the number of emergency personnel available, etc.), which were used in the development of the model; an estimate of the population (resident, transient and special institutions) which would have to be evacuated; a description of the methodology utilized to estimate the number of vehicles (automobiles, buses, etc.) used during an evacuation; a descriptien of the traffic model used to develop the evacuation time estimate; a description of the time required to notify the public of the need to evacuate; and,
- an estimate of the time required to confirm that the population has been evacuated from the plume exposure emergency planning zones (EPZ).
Section 2.0 of this report presents the information on evacuation time estimates. Section 3.0 contains a discussion of the methodology, assumptions, notification and confirmation time estimates, and special situations.
2.0 RESULTS OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIM ATES The division of the area within 10 miles of Waterford 3 into the sectors specified by NUREG-0654(1) was based on geographic and demographic
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I f actors which would be influential to selection of evacuation routes.
These sectors are identified in Figure 1, and described in Section 3.1.
Table 1 is a summary of the evacuation time estimates for each of the sector (EPZ) configurations presented in Figure 1. The time estimates for the 0-10 mile configuration also include the evacuation of the appropriate 0-2 mile and 0-5 mile sectors. It was assumed that whenever a 900 sector in the 0-5 or the 0-10 mile area was evacuated, the entire two mile area on that side of the river would also be evacuated.
The sectors with the longest evacuation time are the NW 0-10 and NW 0-5 sectors, which take seven hours and thirty minutes to evacuate in adverse weather. The shortest evacuation time is one hour and forty-five minutes, which occurs in the NW 0-2 and SW 0-2 sectors in clear weather.
The estimated time to evacuate the entire 10 mile area was five hours and fif teen minutes in clear weather conditions and seven hours and thirty minutes in adverse weather conditions. The time required to evacuate is assumed to be the time from when the mobilization of the emergency personnel begins until the time when the last person has been evacuated from the sector.
Table 2 shows the times required for each community and industrial area to leave the 10 mile EPZ. Table 2 also indicates the type of population (i.e., resident, industrial, schools, commercial, etc) being evacuated from each area. The evacuation times shown on Table 2 show the period of time (af ter mobilization) required to evacuate each individual area from only the 10-mile EPZ. This Table does not show the times required to evacuate the 2 or 5 mile EPZ's.
Table 3 shows the progress of evacuation from each sector. It shows the time (in minutes) when 10 percent, 25 percent, 50 percent, 75 percent, 95 percent and 100 percent of the vehicles have left the sector in clear and adverse weather conditions. These times include the 30 minutes required for mobilization.
Table 12 shows important information relating to the movement of traffic during evacuation. It shows the locations of the largest queuee (ie, traf fic jams, or lines of vehicles) within the EPZ at various times during evacuation. The queues shown on Table 12 are those which would occur during an evacuation of the entire 10 miles area, or for any one of the four 10-mile sectors. The location of the queues given on Table 12 corresponds with those highway links shown on Figure 3. For example, to find out what is occurring on U.S. 61 west of La Place, refer to Figure 3, and note the symbols for the links there (Six 20 through Six 28).
Table 12 indicates that on these links, there are major queues occurring, particularly on link Six 24 north of Reserve. This queue contains a maximum of 650 vehicles , its maximum size occurs at 210 minutes (3-1/2 hours) af ter start of mobilization, and the average delay time for everyone entering that queue is 29 minutes.
The major queues form in the northwest sector along the River Road west of La Place, on U.S. 61 east of U.S. 51 in La Place, and in La Place itself. Other major queues occur in the northeast and southeast sectors on U.S. 61 east of Norco, on the River Road in Hahnville and Luling, on U.S. 90 in Mimosa Park, and in Hahnville and Luling.
3.C ASSIMPTIONS AND METHODOLOGY This section outlines the basic assumptions and methodology that were used in deriving the estimates presented in Tables 1 and 2. The information included in this section are the basic modeling assumptions
$5d a discussion of the model which was used to simulate traffic flows l
during an evacuation as well as the data that was developed to implement the models. A summary of the notification times for the population in the 10 mile EPZ, the traf fic flow assumptions, and a discussion of confirmation times, and other special situations are also included in l
this section.
3.1 BASIC ASSQiPTIONS f
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In order to develop the evacuation time estimates , it was necessary to l
make the following qualifying assumptions:
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- 1) The areas for which evacuation estimates are provided encompass the entire area within a circle of about 10 miles in radius, and have outer boundaries corresponding to the plume exposure emergency planning zones (EPZ). The approximate shapes of the areas are as follows:(l)
Distance- Area 2 miles four 900 sectors 5 miles four 900 sectors about 10 miles four 900 sectors about 10 miles entire EPZ The actual sector configurations used in this report are shown in Figure 1. These sector configurations were designed to conform to geographic (eg, Mississippi River) and demographie (eg, population distribution) factors in the vicinity of the Waterford Site.
- 2) It is assumed that adequate manpower will be available for notification and traffic control at critical intersections.
- 3) Evacuation will be assumed to take place during the daytime on a weekday. The daytime scenario is considered to be the most conservative, since the population will be somewhat higher and more dispersed (i.e., at work, in schools, etc) during the day.
Other problems, such as transportation availability, traffic volumes on the roads at the time of the evacuation, etc, are i considered to be more serious during the daytime.
- 4) The time required to evacuate a sector is assumed to be the time reqaired to move everyone only from the sector, not the time necessary for everyone to reach the final destination. Once the population leaves the sector, they will continue to the reception centers designated in the Parish Emergency Plans (3).
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- 5) The time required to evacuate is defined as the time from when the mobilization of the emergency personnel begins until the time when the last person has been evacuated from the sector, with the exception of personnel supervising or directing the evacuation and those work crews required to remain for the safe shutdown of nearby industries.
- 6) It is assumed that there will be a 100% evacuation of each sector except for personnel supervising or directing the evacuation and those crews required to remain for the safe shutdown of nearby industries.
- 7) It is assumed that once the notification for evacuation has been given, no one will be permitted to enter the area being evacuated to return to their homes.
- 8) It is assumed that the existing highway configuration and lane direction will remain the same during an emergency evacuation; that is, no effort will be made to use inbound lanes for outbound traffic. Studies have shown that rerouting traffic during an evacuation has a tendency to confuse the drivers and slow down the evacuation.(4)
- 9) It is assumed that an outdoor siren system will be used to notify the public of the need to evacuate. LP&L has made plans to install such a system which meets the requirements of NUREG-0654(1) within the 10 mile EPZ. The system will have I the capability of notifying the general public within the EPZ to listen for further instructions within 15 minutes of the system's activation.
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- 10) Adverse weather conditions are considered to be a heavy, l
continuous rainstorm, which would result in reductions of vehicle speeds and the capacity of intersections of 15% to 25%.
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- 11) Based on discussions with a local Civil Defense Director (5),
it was assumed that at least 50% of the resident population who do not have access to a car during the day would be able to receive rides from their neighbors and friends.
- 12) It is assumed that there are three categories of population within 10 miles of Waterford 3. These are as follows:
a) Resident population consisting of people who are at their homes during the daytime in the 10 mile EPZ.
b) Transient population consisting of industrial and commercial employment within 10 miles of Waterford 3.
c) Special institutions consisting of the populations in schools, a hospital, nursing homas and jails within the 10 mile EPZ.
- 13) It is assumed that travel to the EPZ exit points occurs as specified by the Civil Defense Directors of St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes.(2) Routes are detailed in Section 3.5 of this report.
In addition to the above assumptions, it was determined from discussions with the Parish Civil Defense Directors (2) that they would evacuate their respective parishes in the following sequence. First the schools, hospitals and nursing homes would be notified to evacuate before the industries or the resident population. The industries in the area would then be told to evacuate, before the resident population is notified.
Once the roadways are sufficiently clear of industrial workers, the resident population would be notified via the outdoor warning system to evacuate.
The parish officials also indicated that they would mobilize their emergency personnel and school buses and have them in position at the traffic and access control points and the schools, respectively, prior to i
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notifying anyone of the need to evacuate. It is assumed that it would take approximately 30 minutes for the parishes to mobilize their emergency personnel and equipment.
'In all likelihood emergency personnel and equipment will be mobilized well in advance of when an evacuation is required; however, the mobilization of emergency personnel and equipment was considered to be a part of the evacuation time estimates. The time it takes to evacuate an area, therefore, is assumed to be the elapsed time starting when mobilization beg ts and ending when the last evacuee leaves the area in question.
The following is a sununary of the sequence of events that was assumed in developing the evacuation time estimates:
o Time = 0 (Start of Mobilization)
- School buses in St John the Baptist and St Charles Parishes will be brought to the schools located nearest to the site.
- Police and emergency personnel will proceed to the designated traffic and access control points.
- Mobilization procedure is assumed to take approximately 30 l
minutes.
l o Time = 30 Minutes (Start of Notification) l l
l - Mobilization of emergency personnel and school buses is completed and a decision has been made to evacuate.
- Traffic is prevented from encering the EPZ.
- Schools and special institutions (nursing homes and I
hospitals) are notified to evacuate.
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- School buses from the support parishes, St James and Jefferson, are notified to mobilize and go to those schools where children still require transportation, and where residents without cars would be picked up.
- Existing traffic (i.e., traffic which is already on the roadway network) begins to leave the area.
o Time = 45 Minutes (Evacuation Begins)
- Schools buses and people in special institutions begin to enter the roadway network.
- Industries will begin to be notified to start their evacuation.
- Once the highways are fairly clear of industrial workers, the residents in the area will be notified to evacuate.
The exact timing of this depends on the traffic conditions at the time of the evacuation. The times of notification assumed for various communities within the EPZ for both normal and adverse weather conditions are shown in Table
- 4. In the southwest sector, the notification of residents is immediate.
3.2 TRAFFIC FLOW MODEL A traffic flow model using the General Purpose Sinulation System (GPSS)(6) program was developed to determine the time required to evacuare specified sectors within a 10 adle radius of the Waterford 3 facility, and also to identify roadways and intersections where traffic l
control would be needed or where routes would be modified to maintain vehicle movement. The primary advantages of using a computer model are the representation of vehicular traffic on a real time basis and the ability to quickly assess the effects of roadway improvements or evacuation strategies on the overall evacuation time by modifying simulation parameters.
The model consists of four elements:
- 1) generation of traffic flow (zone centroids);
- 2) access to major roadways (connector links);
- 3) travel on the roadway network (network links); and
- 4) traffic control (capacity restriction).
Each of these elements results in the addition of time (in minutes) beginning with the receipt of evacuation notification by each community or area (zone) until the last vehicle departs the given sector.
The model directs traf fic generated at each zone centroid over local streets, industry driveways and other access roadways to major highways, and then through applicable intersections to final exit points from the sector. The following sections provide further description of how the various components cf the model work. In addition, Appendix A presents a step-by-step explanation of how the model operates, using data from the South 0-2 mile sector as an example.
3.2.1 Traffic Generators Each community, industrial complex, school, or incorporated area is represented in the model as a traffic generator (see Section 3.3), which will release traf fic onto the roadway network between the time when notification is received and when the last people are mobilized. Figure 2 shows the location of the generators used to develop the time estimates. The type (i.e., residential, industrial, etc) and number of people being evacuated from each generator are given in Table 2 and Tables 14 through 18.
The distribution of departures approximates a normal distribution curve.
This distribution of departures reflects the varying amounts of time it takes different sectors of the community to prepare to evacuate and to enter the connector links (see Section 3.2.2). Typically, for dense population areas, such as Norco and La Place, or for industrial complexes, traffic evacuating from these areas begins at a rate of 10
cars per minute, increases to a rate of 100 cars per minute and decreases to a rate of 10 cars per minute over a period of 20 minutes. Departures from schools normally occur in the model over a shorter period of time.
Generation from schools assumes a typical bus headway (arrival and loading tirs variation) of two minutes. Buses are also used for residents who must rely on evacuation by means other than automobiles.
3.2.2 Connector Links Connector links are representative of local streets in a community, internal driveways within an industrial complex, and other roadways within a zone that provide access from the zone to the roadway network links (see Section 3.2.3). Travel time for these connectors was computed based on average, minimum and maximum distances from the developed portion of the tone to the network. As explained in Appendix A, this time is represented in the model as average time with a plus or minus deviation. For example, 5 + 2 would indicate that the connector travel time is in the range of 3 to 7 minutes.
3.2.3 Roadway Network Figure 3 shows the evacuation roadway network which was used for the evacuation time estimate. The roadway network includes the major roads and highways used to evacuate people from the EPZ. It does not include all the local streets and driveways, etc, which feed into the major roadway network. For descriptive purposes, each roadway was also subdivided into smaller segments or " links". Table 5 shows the roadway network characteristics, such as number of lanes, type of roadway and capacity for each link.
Travel times oc roadway network links for each type of road, such as two lane rural roads or four lane highways, were based on speed-volume relationships similar to those published in the Highway Capacity Manual I7) . These speed-volume relationships relate the travel time to the number of vehicles on the roadway. As the number of vehicles for a
given length of roadway increases, the travel speed decreases until, at approximately 200 vehicles per mile per lane, traffic is stopped for all practical purposes. For an evacuation situation where the travel is predominantly in one direction, a lower limit of average speed was assumed at four miles per hour, which approximates stop and go traffic.
For adverse weather conditions, a lower limit of three miles per hour was assumed.
The speed-volume relationships identified in the Highway Capacity M anualI7}, are for ideal conditions and can be adversely affected by such f actors as grades, heavy vehicles, roadside obstruccions, lane width, side friction, and cross traffic. These factors were considered in the evacuation time estimate, as follows:
Grades - The study area is located on level terrain with negligible grades that would affect travel speed.
Heavy Vehicles - The traffic volumes generated by the model were in passenger vehicle equivalents; for example, each school bus used in the evacuation was considered as three automobiles.
Lage Width, Curvature, and Roadside Obstructions - Narrow lanes, numerous curves , and obstructions close to the travel lanes result in a reduced average highway speed (AHS). A lower AHS, and corresponding speed-volume curve, was assigned to network segments containing one or more of these restrictive factors. Segments with severe restrictions were assigned additional travel time penalties.
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Side Friction - During evacuation, travel routing was assumed to be predominantly one way and extraneous roadside activity very limited.
Cross Traffic - Intersections constituted independent components in the evacuation time model; therefore, their effect was excluded from roadway segment travel times.
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The actual network segment travel times used in determining the evacuation time estimates in normal weather conditions were based on the speed-volume relationships shown in Tables 6 through 8.
Table 6 covers two lane roadways of 40 mph AHS (low type) and 50 mph AHS (high type). The data is shown for a one mile network segment. The volume is in passenger car equivalents and vehicular density in passenger car equivalents per mile. The segment travel time is rounded to the nearest minute for compatibility with computer model input requirements.
Table 7 shows the same informaton for multi-lane roadways of 40 mph AHS and 60 mph AHS. The information is per lane for a one mile roadway segment.
Table 8 shows the density-travel time relationship that was used for expressway facilities. The information shown is per lane for a one mile roadway segment.
Shailar relationships were computed for network segments of 1/2 mile, 1 1/2 miles, etc., and multiple lanes.
The network segment travel times that were used for evacuating traffic during adverse weather conditions are shown in Tables 9 through 11.
These are similar as those of Tables 6 through 8 except that the following restrictions were appl.ied:
- 1. Reduction of travel speed by 15%.(9)(10)(11)
- 2. Reduction of capacity by 10%.(10)(11) 3.2.4 Traffic Control I At each intersection a form of traffic control, i.e. a policeman or restrictive capacity, is assumed to exist. Basic intersection capacities in fair weather were determined by referring to the relationships included in " Capacity Analysis Techniques for Design of Signalized Inte r se c tions ."( 8) These capacities ranged generally between 900 and
1500 vehicles per lane per hour depending upon lane width, type of road l design and parking regulations'8), with reductions in capacity of 15 to 25% during adverse weather conditions.
At all intersections it was assumed that traffic control personnel would be utilized to direct traffic and that any traffic signals at these intersections would be pre-empted. Two forms of traffic control methods were utilized. In one form, side street traffic is required to yield to vehicles coming toward the intersection on a main road. Traffic on the side street is permitted to enter the main road when sufficient gaps in traffic flow exist on the main road. If sufficient gaps in the traffic flow do not exist, traffic on the main road has priority, and the traffic from the side street is not permitted to enter.
The other form of traf fic control is similar to a fully activated signal and allows for a sharing of intersection use depending on the demand at the critical intersection approach. For example, if Roads "A" and "B" intersect and both are carrying traffic, traffic from both roads would alternate (under police control) in entering the intersection. If road "B" has no traf fic, then traf fic on road " A" would be permitted to continue through the intersection freely for as long as there is no traffic on Road "B".
The Queues may be formed at each of the above types of intersections.
principal queues which form in the simulation are shown in Table 12.
This table indicates the link on which the queue occurs (see Figure 3 for the location of links), the approximate time at which it is longest and its length at that time, and the average delay time a for vehicles entering that queue.
3.3 ESTIMATE OF NGtBER OF VEHICLES The methods used for estimating the number of vehicles departing from each generator is given below. The total number of vehicles estimated to be leaving each traf fic generator is given in Table 13.
Estimates of the number of vehicles which will be leaving a generator are based on the resident, transient and special facility population within each generator. The resident, transient and special insitution population was estimated for 1982 based on trends observed in the 1980 census (16) and from data collected in field studies. The estimated 1982 total resident population for the area within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is shown by evacuation sectors in Figure 4.
Similarly, Figure 5 shows the estimated 1982 transient population by evacuation sectors within 10 miles of the site. The transient population shown in Figure 5 represente the peak daily transient population resulting from industrial and commercial employment activity within 10 miles of the Waterford 3 site. For the purposes of the evacuation time estimates, it was assumed that the evacuation will take place during the daytime on a weekday when recreational activity such as high school football games , various festivals, etc. , would not be expected to take place.
Special institution population consists of the schools, a hospital, nursing homes and jails within the 10 mile EPZ. Figure 6 shows the estimated special institution population by evacuation area.
3.3.1 Residential Vehicle Generation It was necessary to determine the number of cars which would be leaving a traffic generator and the number of residents remaining without cars within each traffic generator. The total resident population within each traffic generator was determined by using estimated 1982 population and descriptive information such as household size, proportion of population going to work or schcol and proportion of homes owning one or more cars.(12) Figure 4 shows the estimated 1982 resident population by evacuation sector within 10 miles of Waterford 3. Table 14 lists the total resident population estimated to be within each traffic generator.
It was assumed that the resident population which would remain in the traffic generators during the day would not include those people who are employed or in school. The total number of people employed or going to ,
o .
school within a traffic generator was subtracted from the total resident population within the traffic generator to obtain the daytime re.sidential population which would have to be evacuated in case of an emergency. The number of people employed or going to school was based on the percentage of the population which was employed or going to school in 1970. The daytime residential population estimated to be within each traffic generator is shown in Table 14.
Once the daytime residential population within each traffic generator was calculated, it was necessary to estimate the number of people who leave by car, the number of people who would depend on other means of transportation (i.e., buses) to be evacuated, and the number of cars which would be leaving each traffic generator (See Table 14). These numbers were estimated using U.S. Census information on car ownership, household size and percentage of workers who drive to work for the area around Waterford 3.(12)(13) A detailed step-by-step example of how these numbers were derived is given in Appendix B.
It was assumed that at least 50% of the remaining population who did not have access to a car would receive rides from neighbors and friends (5) and that the remaining 50% vould be transported from the area by buses from neighboring parishes. These people would be picked up at the school or polling place nearest to their homes. It was also assumed that only 75% of a bus's capacity would be utilized by adults, to allow for baggage transportation.
3.3.2 Vehicle Generation From Major Industries Industrial generators were delineated for areas with a high concentration of industrial employment. The number of people employed during the day at each plant was estimated by using information obtained from the Civil Defense Directors in each Parish. The peak employmeni .c the industrial plants within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is shown in Table 15. The total peak industrial employment in each traffic generator is shown in Table
- 16. The data in Tables 15 and 16 include the peak employment at each plant as well as the construction worker employment at those plants where major construction is taking place.
The total number of cars leaving these industrial areas (See Table 16) was obtained by multiplying the number of employees by .709, which is the proportion of people in the southeast region of the United States who drive their own cars to work.(13) It was assumed that all people who do not have their own cars would be given rides by those who do.
3.3.3 Vehicle Generation by other Employment Employment at non-manufacturing establishments was calculated in the following manner. Known commercial / service employment areas were located on a mar within the 10 mile EPZ radius. The area of each commercial location within each generator was measured and taken as a percentage of the total consnercial area within 10 miles of Waterford 3.
These percentages were then applied to the total commercial employment within St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes.(14) Consnercial employment was calculated by subtracting school, manufacturing and construction workers from the estimated 1982 projected employment in each of the parishes. This total was then increased by 20% (the average proportion of construction workers employed in St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes in 1977) to adjust for the number of construction workers who might be employed in the various commercial areas.(14) The commercial employment which was estimated to be in each generator is shown in Table 16.
The total number of cars which would be leaving these commercial areas (See Table 16) was calculated by multiplying the total number of employees in these areas by .709.(13) 3.3.4 Vehicle Generation from Special Institutions Special institutions within the 10 mile EPZ consist of schools, a hospital, two nursing homes and two jails. The total population in each of these institutions is given in Table 17. The total number of vehicles leaving these institutions in each traffic generator is given in Table 19, The following sections describe the population within each of the special institution categories.
3.3.4.1 Schools The school boards in St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes were contacted to identify the schools within each traffic generator, and to obtain information about the enrollment and employment within each school. The number of school buses on each side of the river in each parish was also obtained. Total population in each of the schools within 10 miles of Waterford 3 is given in Table 17. Table 18 gives the total school population within each traffic generator.
In St John the Baptist Parish, there are approximately 31 buses on the east bank (La Place side) of the Mississippi River and 10 school buses on the west bank (Waterford 3 side) of the Mississippi River.(2) In St Charles Parish there are 44 buses on the east bank of the Mississippi River and 62 buses on the west bank of the Mississippi River.(2) There would not be enough school buses in either Parish to evacuate all the school children within a 10 mile area at the same time if it were required. According to the Parish Civil Defense Directors and the Parish i
Emergency Plans.(3) , additional school buses vill be obtained from support Parishes, i.e., St James Parish for St John the Baptist and Jefferson Parish for St Charles Parish.
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It was assumed that the school children would be evacuated in buses to host schools and the reception centers designated in the Parish Emergency Plans.(3) Parish of ficials indicated that school bus capacities were approximately 56 children per bus plus four adults who would be needed to chaperone the school children at the reception centers. The number of buses leaving a traffic generator, therefore, was obtained by dividing the numbers of school children by 56.
It was assumed that those teachers and adminstrative personnel who do not accompany the children on the buses would evacuate in their personal cars !
after all the children have been evacuated. The number of teachers who l
I would be required as chaperones was calculated by multiplying the number l 1
of school buses leaving each school by four. This number was then subtracted from the total employment in each school to obtain the number of remaining personnel who would be leaving the schools by car. The actual number of cars leaving each school was determined by multiplying the number of remaining employees by .709, the proportion of the population who drive their car to work.(13) 3.3.4.2 Ec it als There is only one hospital within 10 miles of Waterford 3, located in the town of Luling in St Charles Parish. The director of the hospital was contacted to obtain information on the capacity of the hospital and the total employment during the day. Total population at the hospital during the day is 125 people (See Table 17).
The hospital would be notified by phone once a decision to evacuate has ,
been made. It is assumed that the majority of the patients will have to be evacuated in buses.
It was assumed that the hospital employees would evacuate in their own cars. The number of cars which would be leaving the hospital was obtained by multiplying the number of employees by .709.(13) 3.3.4.3 Nursing Homes There are two nursing homes within 10 miles of 'Jaterford 3, one in La Place in St John the Baptist Parish and one in Luling in St Charles Parish. The directors of both nursing homes were contacted to obtain information on the number of occupants and employment during the day.
The total population at each of these facilities is given in Table 17.
The St Charles Nursing Home has an estimated population of 177; sisilarly, the Twin Oaks Nursing Home has an estimated population of 172.
. . l Since neither nursing home has any buses or vans, the nursing home residents will have to be evacuated by buses as they become available.
Employees are expected to leave in their own cars only after the residents have been evacuated. Re total number of cars leaving the nursing home was determined by multiplying the number of nursing home employees by .709.(13) 3.3.4.4 Jails There are two jails located within the 10 mile area of Waterford 3, one in La Place in St John the Baptist Parish and one jail in Hahnville in St Charles Parish. The St John the Baptist Parish Jail has a maximum capacity of 64-70 inmates and an average occupancy of 20-25 inmates (See Table 17). At the time of an evacuation, the inmates would be evacuated to neighboring parish jails in police cars or a bus.
The St Charles Parish jail is located in the Courthouse in Hahnville. It has a maximum capacity of 46 people with an average occupancy of 30 people (See Table 17). The inmates of the jail would be evacuated in police cars or a bus.
3.4 NOTIFI"ATION AND MOBILIZATION The methods used in this analysis for estimating notification and mobilization times for various population groups are given below. The notifications times were based on the use of an outdoor siren system which LP&L has designed according to the requirements of Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654.(1) The siren system consists of a 3-5 minute steady tone and will be sounded to advise persons living, workir,g and traveling in the area to tune to the local emergency broadcast stations for further information. The minimum design objectives for the coverage of the alert / notification systems are:I3)
- 1. Capability of providing both an alert signal and an informational or instructional message to the population on an area wide basis throughout the plume exposure pathway EPZ, within 15 minutes.
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- 2. The initial notification system will assure direct coverage of '
essentially 100% of the population within five miles of the site.
- 3. Special arrangements will be made to assure 100% coverage within 45 minutes of the population who may not have received the initial notification within the entire plume exposure pathway EPZ.
Given these design requirements, it has been assumed that the great majority of the population could be notified in 15 minutes.
3.4.1 Schools It was determined from discussions with the Parish Civil Defense Directors that the schools would be notified first by radio or telephone of the need to evacuate and that the school children would be evacuated from the schools approximately 15 minutes af ter the arrival of the school buses.
It was also determined from discussions with local parish officials that, in case of an emergency, the school bus drivers in St John and St Charles Parishes could mobilize and get to the schools within each parish within approximately 30 minutes. In neither parish are there enough school buses to evacuate all the school children in the entire 10 mile EPZ; therefore, buses from neighboring St James and Jefferson Parishes will be used to evacuate the remaining school children.
According to the Civil Defense Directors in St John the Baptist and St Charles Parishes,(2) the St John the Baptist and St Charles school buses will be used to evacuate the school children in the schools which are located closest to Waterford 3. The support parish buses would be used to evacuate school children in schools located near the outer boundary of the EPZ. It was also estimated by the Civil Defense Directors (2) that it would be approximately 15-30 minutes for the buses in St James Parish to mobilize and arrive at the schools in St John the f
' Baptish Parish and approximately 45-60 minutes for the buses from l
Jef ferson Parish to arrive at the schools in St Charles Parish.
(
3.4.2 Other Institutions Notification of the nursing homes and St Charles Hospital would be carried out by radio or phone, according to the Parish Civil Defense Directors.
Conversations with the directors of these institutions led to the following mobilization times:
St Charles and Twin Oaks Nursing Homes: 15 minutes St Chs.
- Hospital: I hour The transportation of occupants out of the area would commence as soon as buses become available, which will vary depending upon the circumstances (see Section 3.5).
3.4.3 Jails The sheriff's of fice will be notified immediately of the need for an evacuation in the 10 mile area. It is assumed that the jails will be evacuated at the same time as other special institutions.
3.4.4 Industrial Generators Notification times for the industries in the area were determined from discussions with representatives of the industries and with the Parish Civil Defense Directors.(2) The industries will be notified by phene, or in the case of St Charles Parish by a hotline phone system which is a direct line between the industries in the parish and the Civil Defense Director, 15 minutes af ter the schools have been notified to evacuate.
The mobilization time for industries is affected by two factors: the
! size of the plant and the configuration of parking areas. In some cases, mobilization would occur between 10 and 30 minutes af ter notification; in other cases, where the plant is larger and the site more complex, mobilization times of more than a 30 minutes are assumed.
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3.4.5. Other Employment Areas of commercial services and other "iployment were assumed to be notified in the same manner as the residential generators. It was also assumed that they would take the same amount of time as the residents to mobilize and get under way.
3.4.6 Residential Generators The residents within the 10 mile EPZ will be notified by the outdoor siren system. It is assumed that it will take approximately 15 minutes to notify a population within an area using this method of notification.
The notification of the resident population would be staged; that is, communities would be notified to evacuate when major roads in their vicinities are relatively free of other traffic. The assumed times of notification, measured from the start of notification (i.e. , when the schools are first notified, see Section 1.0) for various communities in the 10 mile EPZ are given in Table 4. These recommended times are based upon the times at which industrial traffic has cleared the major roadways in the vicinity of each community.
The time required for people in residential areas to mobilize and get underway was estimated to take between 10 and 30 minutes. This was based on EPA estimates as found in the Manual of Protective Action Guides and Protective Actions for Nuclear Accidenta.(15)
Notification times were combined with mobilization times to estimate the times at which people would actually leave their homes in their vehicles. The first people to leave would do so 10 minutes af ter the start of notification, the last people to leave would do so at 30 minutes af ter the start of notification.
The mobilization times of the population remaining without means of transportation would depend upon when buses become available. This is discussed further in Section 3.5.
3.5 TRAFFIC FLOW ASS 1HPTIONS The following discussion of traf fic flow assumptions will be by sectors.
3.5.1 Southeast 0-2 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- From Beker, Hooker, Union Carbide, Argus, Witco, and Shell: 70% of the traffic would proceed south on Rte 3142, then east on Rte 3127; 30% of the traf fic would proceed east on Rte 18 (River Road).
It is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available to regulate flows out of Union Carbide to avoid overloading River Road or Rte 3142.
3.5.2 Southwest 0-2 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- From Killona, south on Rte 3141 and then west on Rte 3127.
- From LP&L, Waterford 1 & 2, west on Rte 18 (River Road)
It is assumed that buses from St. Charles Parish would be available to carry students from Killona Elementary School west along Rte 3127.
Buses would be sent from Jefferson Parish to pick up residents without cars. They would be available approximately 60 minutes after the start of notification, and would proceed west on Rte 3127.
Traffic control personnel would be available to control flows at plant gates and at the intersection of Rte 3141 and Rte 18 (River Road).
3.5.3 Southwest 0-5 Itaffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Killona, LP&L Waterford Complex, and Union Carbide areas: See Sections 3.5.1 and 3.5.2.
- From Lucy area: west on Rte 18 (River Road).
School children in Lucy will be evacuated starting 15 minutes after notification in St. John the Baptish Parish buses.
Residents without cars will be evacuated in buses from St. James Parish, which will be available in the Lucy area 30 minutes after notification.
3.5.4 Southwest 0-10 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Killona, LP&L - Union Carbide areas: See Sections 3.5.1, 3.5.2 and 3.5.3.
- From Tigerville, Lucy and LP&L Waterford 1 & 2: vest on Rte 18 then, at Edgard, south on Rte 640, then west on Ree 3127.
From Edgard and Wallace areas: vest on Rte 18 (River Road).
Buses will be available from St. James Parish to pick up residents without cars starting at 15-25 minutes after the start of notification.
All St. John the Baptist school buses on the West Bank will be utilized in evacuating school children.
It is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available at the intersection of Rte 3127 and Rte 18 (River Road) in Edgard, and at the intersection of Rees 640 and 3127.
3.5.5 Southeast 0-5 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Killona, LP&L - Union Carbide area: See Sections 3.5.1 and 3.5.2.
- Bahnville will proceed East on Rte 18 (River Road).
St Charles Parish buses will arrive at schools during mobilization and will begin to transport school children out of the area within 15 minutes of the decision to evacuate.
It is assumed that buses from Jefferson Parish will be available to pick up residents without cars and occupants of the St Charles Parish Jail in Killona and Bahnville, starting at 30 minutes af ter start of notification.
It is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available in Hahnville at key locations along River Road to insure a smooth flow of traffic, and to allow entry from side streets.
3.5.6 Southeast 0-10 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Killona, LP&L, Booker, Union Carbide area and Hahnville same as Southeast 0-5 (Section 3.5.5).
- Luling: 50% of the traf fic would exit to the east on Rte 18 (River Road) while 50% of the traffic would proceed south on Rte 52 and then east on U.S. 90.
M onsanto: Traffic would be divided between Rte 18 (25%) and U.S. 90 (75%), both heading east.
- Lone Star: Traffic would be divided evenly between Rte 18 and U.S. 90, both heading east.
Boutte and Mimosa Park: All traffic from these communities would proceed east on U.S. 90.
- Paradis area: All traffic would proceed south on Rte 631 and U.S. 90.
It is assumed that Jefferson Parish buses would be utilized to evacuate school children from the area East of Hahaville, residents without cars, and the people at St Charles Hospital and St Charles Nursing Home. They will be available for these purposes between 45 and 50 minutes after the start of notification.
It is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available to direct traffic in the following areas:
at all places noted in Southeast 0-2 and Southeast 0-5.
- at the intersection of Rte 52 and the River Road in Luling.
at key locations in Luling along the River Road.
at the intersection of Rte 3060 and the River Road in Lone Star.
at the intersections of Rees 52 and 3060 with U.S. 90.
at the intersections of Rte 3127 with Rte 52 and U.S. 90.
- at the Monsanto Plant gates on River Road and U.S. 90.
- at key locations along U.S. 90 in Mimosa Park, Boutte, and Paradis.
3.5.7 Northwest 0-2 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
Residents of Montz would travel out of the two-mile area west via River Road, Evangeline Road and Montz Road.
- Employees of LP&L - Little Gypsy would travel out of the area via River Road.
Notification would occur 30 minutes after the completion of mobilization.
Buses from Jefferson Parish would be available to pick up residents without cars 60 ministes after notification.
3.5.8 Northeast 0-2 This is the area of the Bonnet Carre Spillway. No population will have to be evacuated from this area.
3.5.9 Northeast 0-5 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Residents of Montz and employees at LP&L - Little Gypsy:
Proceed west via Rte 628 (River Road).
Norco: Most traf fic will proceed to U.S. 61 and then east; the remainder will proceed east on Rte 48 (River Road)
- Shell Chemical Co: East on Rte 48 (River Road).
- Shell Oil Co Refinery: 75% of this traffic will head east on U.S. 61; 25% of this traffic will head east on Rte 48 (River Road).
- Good Hope: 75% of the residents will proceed to U.S. 61 and then east; 25% of the residents will proceed east on Rte 48 (River Road).
- GATX and Good Hope Refinery: 67% of the traffic will proceed to U.S. 61 and then east; 33% :<f the trsffic will travel east on Rte 48 (River Road).
- New Sarpy: 33% of the traffic will proceed on Rte 48 (River l
Road) and then east; the other 67% of the traffic will proceed to U.S. 61, and then east.
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l It is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available at all intersections in this area along U.S.61, and at major intersections along Rte 48 (River Road). Traffic control personnel will also be req' aired to direct flows at uajor intersections inside Norco, Good Hope and New Sarpy, as well as at the gates of the industries in the area.
It is assumed that St Charles Parish buses will be available to
- accommodate school children beginning 15 minutes after start of
- notification in each community. Residents without cars would be picked up approximately 30 minutes after notification in each community.
3.5.10 Northeast 0-10 Traf fic flow from the Montz, Norco, Good Hope, and New Sarpy areas will be the same as outlined in Section 3.5.9. Other traffic is assumed to flow as follews:
- Ormond Estates: 75% of the traf fic will proceed to U.S. 61, and 25% of the traffic east on Rte 48 (River Road).
- Destrehans all traffic will proceed east on River Road.
- St. Rose: 50% of the traffic will proceed north on Rte 626 and then east on U.S. 61; $0 of the traffic will proceed ecst on Rte 48 (River Road).
- Industrial employees: The employees of the International Tank Terminal and the grain elevators will proceed east on River Road.
Traffic control assumptions are the same as outlined in Section 3.5.9, with the additional assumption that traffic control personnel will be available to control traffic entering the River Road from Ormond Estates, Destrehan and St. Rose, and into U.S. 61 from Ormond Estates Road and Rte 626.
. o l
It is assumed that buses from Jefferson Parish will be utilized in trans porting school children to evacuation centers. They will be available for this purpose about 45-50 minutes af t r the start of notification. Buses from Jefferson Parish will also be available to pick up residents without cars, who would leave their respective gathering points approximately 30 minutes after their communities are notified.
3.5.11 Northwest 0-5 Traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
- Montz and LP&L-Little Gypsy: west on River Road, and north on Evangeline and Montz Roads to U.S. 61 and then west, then north on U.S. 51.
All areas east of U.S. 51: North on U.S. 51.
- La Place, south of U.S. 61 and west of U.S. 51: 25% of the traffic will proceed west on Rte 44 (River Road); 75% of the traffic will proceed west on U.S. 61.
La Place, north of U.S. 61 and west of U.S. 51: All traffic will proceed west on U.S. 61.
As was the case in the Norco area, it is assumed that traffic control personnel will be available to man r.11 intersections along U.S. 61 in La Place, at important intersections in the interior of La Place, along the River Road, and on U.S. 51. Extra traffic control personnel may be requ' red along U.S. 51 to keep traffic moving on this highway, which is a major bottleneck in the La Place area.
It is assumed that sufficient buses will be available to transport school children from La Place out of the area in one trip, beginning 15 minutes after start of notification. Buses frem St. James Parish would be available to pick up residents without vehicles at approximately 30 minutes after the start of notification in La Place.
. e 3.5.12 Northwest 0-10 Traffic from La Place and Montz is assumed to flow as outlined in Section 3.5.11. Other traffic is assumed to flow as follows:
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- Reserve and Garyville: 60% of the traf fic will proceed to U.S.
61 and then west; 40% of the traffic will proceed west on Rte 44 (River Road).
Traffic control assumptions are as outlined in Section 3.5.11, with the additional assumptions that major intersections within Reserve and Garyville, on the River Road, and on U.S. 61 will be manned.
It is assumed that all buses from St. James Parish will be utilized to transport school children out of Reserve and Garyville. They will also be available to pick up residents without cars. This will occur about 30 minutes after the start of notification in each community.
3.6 CONFIR1 ATION TD1ES In order to insure that all of the population has been evacuated, some method of ccnfirmation is required. Industry officials will be instructed to phone their Parish Civil Defense Director after their last employee has been evacuated. Likewise, school principals will be instructed to notify the Civil Defense Director after the last busload of students has been evacuated. Confirmation of evacuation of the general resident population will be done by sheriff's deputies when they have completed their other responsibilities (such as traffic control) for evacuating the 10 mile area.
The method used for confirming that the residents in an area have been evacuated is assumed to be a fan out system in which police and emergency personnai drive along the streets checking to see that all the residents have le ft. To aid the local officials in confirmation, it is assumed that the residents will be instructed to tie a white flag to the door of their house as they evacuate. The estimated confirmation times for l
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. e communities within the EPZ are given in Table 19. It is assumed that confirmation would consnence when most of the residential vehicles have left their neighborhood.
Confirmation times were developed from discussions with Civil Defense Directors in St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes.(2) De Civil Defense Directors estimated how long it would take to drive through certain communities within their respective parishes. Rese times were then compared to the population size of the consnunities to determine the relationship between population size of the community and confirmation times. The relationship was used to estimate the confirmation times in other communities.
3.7 SPECIAL SITUATIONS In developing the evacuation time estimates, several special situations became apparent. Some of these could lead to difficulties in notifying and/or evacuating certain portions of the population. Rese issues are discussed below.
3.7.1 Notification Times he applicant has decided to use an outdoor notification system which will meet the requirements of Appendix 3 of NUREG-0654.(1) Once the outdoor warning system is an operation, it will be the primary means for notifying the population within many areas of Waterford 3. It should be emphasized however, that during studies undertaken for this time estimate, it was observed that notification times do not appear to be the principal determinant of evacuation times. The principal determinants are intersection capacity and traffic control. We outdoor warning system has been designed with the capability of either staging notification or notifying the whole 10 mile EPZ at once.
3.7.2 Manpower Requirements In developing the traf fic model and evacuation time estimates, it was assumed that personnel would be available for traffic control at key
. o intersections in the area. Traffic control is necessary to prevent vehicle congestion at certain intersections which could significantly increase the evacuation times. The assessment of the manpower availability in each of the respective parishes is part of the ongoing emergency planning process.
3.7.3 Vessels on the Mississippi River It is recognized that vessels traveling on, or anchored in, the Mississippi River within the affected sector may represent a special evacuation problem. In the svent of an accident at Waterford 3 necessitating an evacuation, LP&L will notify the U.S. Coast Guard so that they, within their discretion, may exercise the control over river traf fic necessary to protect vessel crews.
3.7.4 Elderly and Handicapped Persons In St Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes, there are a number of people who are elderly and/or handicapped (non-ambulatory, blind, deaf etc.). In St Charles Parish there are approximately 5,000 people who are 60 years old and over. Approximately half of these people own cars. In addition, approximately 1500 people are non-ambulatory. The Council of Aging in St Charles Parish has three 12 passenger vans and one van for non-ambulatory people.
In St John the Baptist Parish, there are approximately 1600 people over 60 years old registered with the Council of Aging. It is estimated that this figure represents 75% of the elderly people in the parish.
Approximately 25% of the 1600 elderly people have cars. Approximately 300 elderly people are totally dependent on the Council of Aging for transportation. There are approximately 85-90 handicapped and invalid persons on the East Bank (La Place aide) of the Mississippi River and approximately 20 handicapped and invalid persons on the West Bank. The St John the Baptist Council of Aging has two 12-passenger vehicles; one vehicle is on each side of the river.
During an evacuation it is assumed that most of the elderly and handicapped people without cars will be evacuated either in Council of Aging vans, or in cars with family or neighbors. Some people, however, will be lef t without a means of transportation. It is assumed that the Council of Aging in both Parishes will provide the Civil Defense Directors with a current list of addresses for elderly and handicapped persons in the area. During the confirmation period, these homes will be checked to insure that these people have been evacuated. People who have not been evacuated will be taken out in the patrol cars performing the confirr et ion.
3.7.5 Industries Within 10 miles of Waterford 3, there are a number of oil refineries and chemical plants. The time to safely shutdown these plants ranges from one to 48 hours5.555556e-4 days <br />0.0133 hours <br />7.936508e-5 weeks <br />1.8264e-5 months <br /> and requires that a shift crew remain to perform the shutdown operations. Given the lengthy amount of time required to shut down some of these plants and the seriousness of the situation requiring an evacuation, it was assumed for this estimate that during an evacuation, all plant personnel would be evacuated within 30 minutes. It is recognized, however, that a relatively small number of a given plant's crew may remain for longer time periods to effect a safe shutdown of plant equipment.
3.7.6 Population in Outlying Areas Some people hunt, fish, and occasionally work in the wetlands in the outer perimeter of the study area. Also, recreational boating occurs on Lake Pontchartrain and Lac Des Allemands, portions of which fall within 10 miles of Waterford 3. It is assumed that for those areas without siren coverage, alert teams staffed by fire personnel and Sheriff's Deputies will be dispatched to notify specific areas of the parishes; however, it is not possible at this time to estimate how le g this may take.
. e REFERENCES
- 1) U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Federal Emergency Management Agency, Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants , NUREG-0654; TR1 A-REP-1 REV1, Washington, D.C. , November,1980.
- 2) Meeting with B Madere, St John the Baptist Parish Civil Defense Director and J. Lucas, St Charles Parish Civil Defense Director, January 1980 and January 1982.
- 3) State of Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, Office of Environmental Af fairs Nuclear Energy Division, Louisiana Peacetime Radiological Response Plan, Attachment 1, Waterford Steam Electric S ta tion, Enclosures 1 and 2, Revision 3, September 1981.
- 4) Bi11heimer, JW, R Bu11emer et. al, Impacts of the Crisis Relocation Strategy ;a Transportation Systems, Analysis and Case Study, prepa*ed for Defense Civil Preparedness Agency, Contract No. DCPA01-75-0263, Washington D.C. , August, 1976.
- 5) Personal Communication with J. Incas, St Charles Parish Civil Defense Director, March 1980.
- 6) Schriber, T.3 Sinulation Using GPSS John Wiley & Sons, New York,1974.
- 7) Highway Re' search Board, Highway Capacity Manual, Special Report 87, Washington, D.C., 1965, pp. 64-65.
- 8) Leisch, Jack, E. , " Capacity Analysis Techniques for Design of Signalized Intersections," Public Roads: A Journal of Highway Research, U.S. Department of Transportation, August 1967 and October 1967.
1
- 9) Highway Researach Board, " Highway Fog," National Cooperative Highway Rasearch Program Report No. 95, Washington, D.C.: National Research Council, 1970, pg 5.
- 10) Transportation and Traffic Engineering Handbook, Institute of Traffic Engineers, 1976, pp 324, 856.
- 11) Highway Research Board, " Traffic Speed and Volume Measurements,"
- Bulletin 156, Washington, D.C.,1957. pg 40.
- 12) U.S. Department of Commerce, The 1970 Census of Population and Housing, Fif th Count Information for St. Charles and St John the Baptist Parishes in Louisiana, Washington D.C.,1970.
- 13) U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Annual Housing Survey: 1977, Urban and Rural Housing Characteristics, Washington D.C., 1977.
- 14) Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economics Information System,
" Employment by Type and Broad Industrial Sources 1972-1977, for St "harles and St John the Baptist Parishes in Louisiana," Washington D.C., 1979.
- 15) Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, Manual I of Protective Action and Protective Actions for Nuclear Incidents, l
Washington D.C. ,1975.
- 16) U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Advance Reports of 1980 Census of Population and Housing (PHC80-V-20), Louisiana, U.S.
I Covernment Printing Office, Washington, DC,1980.
l i---- - - . = , _ . _. _ __
TABLE 1 SIMM ARY OF EVACUATION TIMES BY EVACUATION SECTORS (
Clear Weather Adverse Weather Evacuation Sector (2) Hours hinutes Hours hinutes 0-2 SW 1 45 1 45 SE 2 15 2 30 NE No Population No Population NW 1 45 1 45 2 30 Entire 2 Mile Area 2 15 0-5 SW 2 15 2 30 3 30 4 30 SE NE 3 30 4 15 5 15 7 30 NW Entire 5 Mile Area 5 15 7 30 2 15 3 00 0-10 SW SE 4 45 6 00 3 45 4 30 NE NW 5 15 7 30 15 7 30 Entire 10 Mile Area 5 i
I (1) Time to completely evacuate an evacuation area measured from the time of mobilization. (See Section 3.1).
(2) For location of evacuation areas, see Figure 1.
Shest 1 ef 3 TABLE 2 ,
E 10 M11E Er2(1)
TIME E. ri AATES TO EVACUATE CnMMt1NITIES AND INDUSTRI AL AREAS WITPIN TH Clear Weather Adverse Weather Minutes Hour s Minutes Hours (3) Type of <-pulation Evac uat ion (2 ) t.ocation (see i.egend)
Cenerator Designat ion _
Sec t or 2 00 00 2
R .C .S 15 ~1 15 21 Ktllona 1 1
SW 4-2 22W Waterford 1 & 2 00 3 30 3
1 Union Carbide, Beker Hooker,etc.
224 SE 0-2 -
Bonnet Carte Spillway 3 1:
23A 1 45 NE O-2 1 4 15 Little Gypsy 3 15 23 R NW 0-2 Monta 2 00 24 1 45 R .C .S Lucy
%1 -
SW 2-5 -
6- 00 4 45 52 Wet t end s R.S.C,0 SE 2-5 5) Hahnville 5 = Schools Population Legend: R = Residences C - Commercist Employment I = Industrial Employment O = Other Institutions It is not d t i t area to leave the 10 elle EFZ.
It includes 30 minutes of (1)
This is the time it takes for the last vehicles f rom a particular community or in us r sate f rom the 2 or 5 site EPZ.
the time f or the vehicles in each community or industrial area to evacu nobli t ta t ion t !;4.
.(2) For location of evacuation sectors, see Figute 1.
(3) For location of traf fic generators, See Figure 2.
Sheet 2 of 3 TABLE 2 H'E ESTIMAT_ES TO EV ACUATE CO'e(1:NITIES AND INTUSTRI AL ABF AS WITHIN THF 10 MILE EPZ(I)
Clear Weather Adeerse Weather Evacuation Type of Populat ion _ Hours Minutes Hagro Minutes Sector Cenerator Destanstion( Location (see Legend)
R ,C 3 45 4 30 NE 2-5 54 New Sarpy Shell 011, Good Hope Refinery CATI l.S 3 45 4 30 56 45 4 30 R.S.C 3 57 Coud Hope R .C 3 45 4 30 58 New Prospect R .S .C 3 30 4 00 59 Norco R .C 3 30 4 00 510 Norco 3 30 4 00 R.S.C 2 511 Norco 2 45 3 15 512 Norco (North end) R.C 2 45 3 45 -
513 Shell Chemical 1 15 Bonnet Carre Spillway R 1 45 2 514 3 15 4 15 NW 2-5 515 Cypsy R.C 3 45 4 45 515A Bayou Steel 1 30 8 ,C 4 30 6 516 Wetlanis 45 La Place R .S .C 4 45 6 51T 4 30 R .S .C 0 3 30 518 La Place 00 4 30 6
' 519A La Place (North of US 61) R .C 4 15 5 30 5198 La Place (North of US 61) R .S .C 4 45 3 45 519C La Place (North of US 61) R .C 15 30 L R,C 5 7 520 La Place (North of US 61)
St Rose R .S 3 45 4 DO NE 5-10 101 4 00 R.C 3 45 r
I '2 St Rose 15 .1 45
- 10. 4 Int'l Tank Terstnal l 1 Destrehan R I 45 3 15 103 4 30 Destrehan R .C 3 45 104 2 45 l St Charles & Bunge Crain Elevators 1 1 15 104A 4 00 Orennd Estates R,5 2 45 t
105 - - - -
106 Wet la nds !
NW 5-10 101 Wetle.Js 3 15 5 15 108 La Place R .S .C 00 Reserve-East R.S.C 4 00 6 109 4 00 2 45 110 DuPont Plant 1 2 45 15 1011 Codchaux Henderson Plant I 45 I 30 a 1011A Airline Industrial Park 1 4 15 Bayside & Cargill Crain Elevators 1 2 45 i 1012 00 4 15 R 3 101) Reserve-West 2 00 2 45 1014 Marat hon 011 1 30 R ,$ ,C 2 15 2 1015 Caryville 45 2 00 SW 5-10 1016 Edgard R.S.C 1 Population I.egend: R - Residences S = Sc hools 2 1 = Indust rial Employment C = Commercial Employment 0 = Other Institutions i
. -.- _. . ~.. - . . . . - . . - - . - , - - - . . _ . - - - . . - - . - - - .. - .-
i .
l Shest 3 of 3 TABLE 2 .
1 Tiff. ESTIMATES TO EVACliATP. CfwenfNITIES AND INNISTRI AI. ABRAS WITHIN THE 10 Mll.E FPZ(1)
Clear Weather Adverse Weather Evacuation Type of Population Hours Minutes Hours Minutes Cenerator Denlanation 1.ocation i Sector (See Legend) j -
1017 Wetlands 45 3 IS SE 5-10 R.S.C 2 ,
1018 Paradis 2 00 2 15 1019 Paradis-Boutte R .S .C 3 30 4 15 1020 Soutte R.S.C 2 30 R 2 15 1021 1.uling-West 4 30 R.S.C,0 4 00 1022 Luling 45 r ,C 1 30 1 102) Lone Star /Luling East 15 3 30 4 l 1024 H!mosa Park R .S .C 15 a 2 30 3 1025 Monsanto, Farmers Esport I 45
, 1 30 1 1 1026 Texaco Cas Plant I l
4 A
1 i S = Schools Population Legends R = Restdences C = Commercial Employment .
I = Industrial Employment 0 = Other Institutions i
1 T
=
1.
4
Sheet 1 of 2 TABLE 3 TIME TO EVACUATE CIMULATIVE PERCENT OF VEHICLES FRCH EACH EVACUATION SECTOR Time Minutes (Clear Weather)
Evacuation Sector ( 10% 25% 50% 75% 95% 100%
0-2 SW 43 48 53 58 75 105 SE 47 61 78 96 120 135 NE NW 43 61 67 75 98 105 Entire 2 Mile Area 52 61 78 100 120 135 0-5 SW 47 65 80 96 120 135 SE 73 93 123 157 198 210 NE 68 87 118 150 195 210 NW 72 96 132 182 261 315 Entire 5 Mile Area 71 93 122 159 210 300 0-10 SW 47 65 80 96 120 135 SE 70 90 128 176 237 285 NE 72 98 138 178 210 225 IN 77 105 152 210 265 315 130 180 248 315 Entire 10 Mile Area 68 90 l
l (1)For l'ocation of evacuation sectors, see Figure 1.
l
? --- ._. . ._ _ - _ _.
Sheet 2 of 2 TABLE 3 TIME TO EVACUATE CINULATIVE PERCENT OF
'- V
_EHJCLES FRCH EACH EVACUATION SECTOR Time Minutes (Adverse Weather) l Evacuation (1) 10 25 50% 75% 95% 100%
Sector 51 55 60 75 105
! 0-2 SW 47 70 85 106 128 145 150 SE NE No Population 57 67 73 82 98 105 NW 69 90 110 135 150 Entire 2 Mile Area 58 57 70 91 113 140 150 0-5 SW 100 138 178 240 270 SE 73 70 88 118 162 220 255 NE 107 160 226 390 450 NW 73 65 89 120 180 300 450 Entire 5 Mile Area 70 91 113 140 150 0-10 SW 57 75 100 152 212 290 360 SE 107 152 203 242 270 NE 78 85 120 187 270 360 450 NW 99 151 225 330 450 Entire 10 Mile Area 74 l
(1)For location of evacuation sectors, see Figure 1.
l t i
TABLE 4 ASSUMED TIME OF NOTIFICATION FOR COMMUNITIES WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 (1)
Conununity Time of Notification (2)
Killona 0 (2)
Lucy 0 (2)
Edgard 0 Hahnv111e 80 Luling-Boutte 15 Norco 35 Mimosa Park 15 Good Hope 50 New Sarpy 80 Destrehan 80 Ormond Estates 80 St Rose 125 La Place 20 Rese rve 35 Caryville 50
- 1) In minutes after completion of mobilization.
- 2) Note that in the southwest sector, the notification of residents is immediate. No staging of notification would be required here because the population density is low enough to permit everyone to enter the roadway system at the same time.
m -
TABLE $ Sheet 1 of 4 BOADuf NETWouK CetARACTEstStICS LinkIII humbe r(2 ) Type I3I I'I Route Designation of Lanes Roafway Capacity Commente River Rd Riv 01 4 miles *
(La Rt 49) u) 2 LL 1 traffic signal
' l c7 l 1
Riv 09 ' '
7 miles
- 11 1 1900 l
1-30 mph curve 13 2 l LH l 15 I 17 19 eRiver RJ Riv U2 i 2 LL 0.5 mile *
(La at 44) 04 2 LH 1900 1.5 mile s*
06 I Riv 14 1 5 miles.*
16 2 LL 1-traffic signal 18 1900 i 1-20 mph curve 20 l 22 , 2 LH j f 3 miles
- 24 U.S. Et 61 Sin 01 03 4 {
J MH f F
2000/ lane) '
2.5 miles, bridge over-floodway l-traf fic signal 07 7 miles, paved shouldero l
09 2000/lanc i 2-trattic signale 11 4 MH variable width median 13 l l l l 15
T ABL E 5 Sheet 2 of 4 R(MDef htTWORK C4 A RAC T E RI STICS Number III Ty pe I3I I0I
. Li nkIII Capacity Comment e o f Le ne s RosJway Route Desig2et ion Sia D8 4 miles, paved shouldere US Rt 61 1-traffic signal 10 2000 /l ane 12 4 MH varamble width median 14 l6 l l 5.5 miles, full paved shoulders Sin 22 except f or 1/2 mile through 24 4 MH 2000/ lane 26 taplace & Reserve they are 3 f t I I 1-traffic signal
' 28 3 ft. gravel shoulders west of Re serve Rty 01 LL 19 00 L 2.5 miles Evageline 2 Rty 02 i i I 2 sets of ER tracks St z 01 2 LL 1900 2.5 milee Mont z Nd La Rt 628 Rtz 02 I i I
2 sets of RR tracke Stor 1 4 ML 1800/ lane 2 miles, 25 mph, 2-Ra Ormond Est.
Ri vd Etor 2 2 sets of RR tracks 20 f t curbed grace median with cu t out e La Et 626 Stwa 1 I l .I 2.5 miles Stus 2 LL 1900 I I I Stwa 3 LL 1900 1.5 miles - RR trache, 20 mph La Rt 54 Ftt 01 2 curve, stop sign.
LL 1900 1 mile, US Rt 51 Fty 01 2 {
Fty 02 2 LH f I mile, 0.5 mile, paved shoulders Fty 03 4 MH 2000/ lane 111 01 4 FX 2000/ lane 2 miles, paved shouldere 1-55 i
..a .- . - - . . .~a.-- -. ~, . ,. . .- +. - u --. .~ _- -- . - . ~ _ -. - -- --- . - . . . -..~-r_..._~
TABLE 5 Sheet 3 ol 4 ROADMY NETWORK CHARACTERISTICS I
LinkIII~ Number III Type III I'I Route Designation o f La nc e Roajuay Ca psc it y Commente US Rt 90 Nty 01 8 milee 02 unpaved abouldere.
03 2 000/ lane variable width median I
04 4 l MH 05 1 3 trattic signale l
06 01 i 08 La Rt 3127 Rtc 01 6.5 miles, paved shoulder 03 2 LH 19 00 05 07 r
Rtc 02 9 mitee, paved shoulder t 04 2 LH l 19 00 U6 l l l U8 I I 10 12 14 4
La Rt 31 A 1 Rtd 01 2 LH 1900 1.5 miles, unpaved shoulder La at 640 Rtd U2 2 LH 1900 2 miles, l River Rd Evr 08 5.5 miles
- La Rt 18 03 i 2-tratfic blinkere 05- l 2 LL 1900 1-25 mph curve a
CF j 09 11 13 6 sites *
- l 1-4ralfic signal 15 17 2 LN 1900 1-traffic blinker 19 1-35 mph curve
]
21 i
r
.a
m .. . _
_ - . __ . _e _ _ . .
TABLE 5 Sheet 4 ol 4 RinDWAY tcETWONK Cd ARACfERISTICS LinkII) NumberI2) Ty pe I3I I')
Route Designation of Lance Roadway Capacity Comment e La Rt 3142 Rta 02 2 LH 1900 1.5 miles.
La at 3160 Rte 02 LL 1900 2 miles La at 52 Rtt 01 2 LL 1900 1.5 miles. RR tracks, traf fic signal i Barton Ave Rtg 01 2 LL 1900 t mile, 2-sets of RR tracks La Rt 30 60 02 A La Rt 52 Rth 11 1 5 miles.
12 2 LL 1900 13 l
14
- River Rd has no usef ul shoulder. However, the adjacent levee could possibly support 4 wheel drive emergency vehicles traf fic 4
(1) See Figure 3 - Evacuation Roadway Network (2) Total numbe r of through lance in both directions (3) LL = Two lane rural roadway - 40 miles per hour (MPH) average highway speed. ( ARS)
LH = Two t eme rural roadway - 50 mph AtiS
- ML = Mult i- t ane . roadway - 40 spi AHS Mt = thalt i-lane roadway - 60 mph ads j PH = f reeway - 70 mph AHS (4) Service volume at level E (passenger car equivalente) 4 i
' -- ~ -- __ _ . _ . . __
TABLE 6 DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELAf!ONSHIPS 1WO LANE RURAL ROAD MORMAL WEATHER CONDITIONS High Type (2) 1,ow Type O)
Peak Direction Two Directional Pe ak Direction Speed Density Time _
Density Time volume Sseed' (aph) (veh/ mile) (min.)
(veh/ mile) (min.)
(WhM) opi 1
45 2 3 2 100 36 4 1 5 2 45 1 200 35 44 6 8 2 300 35 43 8 1 11 2 1 400 34 43 to 13 2 500 34 13 1 16 2 42 600 33 15 2 2 41 31 19 2 70r 2 39 19
- 80. 32 23 21 2 2 38 900 32 25 24 2 28 2 37 1000 32 28 2 2 36 31 32 2 1100 2 3% 31 1200 30 36 34 2 2 34 30 39 37 2 1300 2 34 1400 29 44 41 2 2 33 29 47 45 2 1500 2 32 1600 28 51 49 2 2 31 28 55 2 1700 2 30 54 1800 27 60 59 2 2 29 26 66 3 1900 3 23 71 1800 23 11 77 3 3 20 20 77 80 3 1700 3 18 1600 18 80 84 4 4 16 16 84 4 1500 4 14 90 1400 14 90 90 5 5 13 1300 13 90 90 5 90 5 12 6 1200 12 90 6 11 1100 11 90 100 7 100 7 9 8 1000 9 8 101 8 101 8 9 900 9 7 10) 800 7 103 105 10 10 6 100 6 105 108 12 108 12 5 000 5 113 15 15 4 500 4 113 Note: Peak direction is assumed to le 90% of total traf fic.
(1) Low Type - 40 mph avg. highway speed.
(2) High Type - 50 mph avg. highway speed.
. . . _ _ _ . -- _ ,- . . _ - - ... .. - . . . -~ . . .. - . _ - , - . ,. - . _ . ~ _ _ ~ - _ . .
TABLE ? .
OENSITY/ TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIPS PafLTI-LANE ROADWAY WORMAL WEAT1tER CONDITIONS i
4 1Aw Type III High Type (2)
Density Time S ed De ne t tL Time Volume S peed (mph) (veh/m!le) (min.) mp (veh/ mile) (min.)
!4 (veh/hr) 3 2 52 2 1 100 34 6 2 51 4 1 200 33 300 33 9 2 50 6 1 2 49 8 1 400 32 13 500 32 16 2 47 11 1 3
19 2 46 13 1 600 31 700 31 23 2 45 16 1 44 18 1 800 30 27 2 900 30 30 2 43 21 1 42 24 1 1000 29 34 2 38 2 41 27 2 1100 29 2 28 43 2 39 31-1200 1300 28 46 2 38 34 2 37 38 2 1400 27 52 2 1500 27 56 2 36 42 2 2 35 46 2 1600 26 62
!?OO 26 65 2 34 50 2 33 55 2 1800 25 72 2 1900 -- -- --
31 61 2
- - 30 67 2 2000 -
1900 -- -- --
27 70 2 3 23 18 3 1800 23 78 l 21 81 3 1700 21 81 3 3 19 84 3 1600 19 84 1500 17 88 4 17 88 4 4 15 93 4 1400 15 93 1300 13 100 5 13 100 5 5 12 100 5 1200 12 100
!!00 11 100 6 11' 100 6 9 111 7 1000 9 111 7 900 8 113 8 8 113 8 9 7 114 9 800 7 114 700 6 117 10 6 117 10 120 12 5 120 12 i 600 5 500 4 125 15 4 125 15 Note: All Information above Is per lane.
(1) Low Type = 40 mph avg. h!stenay speed.
(2) High Type = 60 mph avg. highway speed.
TABLE 8 !
DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP EXPRESSWAY NORMAL WEADIER CONDITIONS Vo lume Speed De nsity Time (veh/h r) (sph) (veh/ mile) (min.)
100 55 2 1 200 54 4 1 300 54 6 1 54 7 1 400 500 54 9 1 600 54 11 1 700 54 13 1 800 53 15 1 900 53 17 1 1000 52 19 1 1100 51 22 1 1200 50 24 1 1300 49 27 1 14 00 48 29 1 1500 47 32 1 1600 46 35 1 1700 44 39 1 1800 43 42 1 1900 41 46 2 30 67 2 2000 27 70 2 1900 23 78 3 1800 21 81 3 1700 18 89 3 1600 '
16 93 4 1500 15 94 4 1400 13 100 5 1300 12 100 5 1200 11 100 6 1100 9 111 7 1000 8 112 8 900 800 7 114 9 6 1 17 10 700 5 120 12 600 4 125 15 500 Note: All information above is per lane.
Avg. highway speed = 70 mph with 55 mph speed limit.
e .
TABLE 9 DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION TWO LANE RURAL ROAD ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS Low Type Design (1) High Type Design (2)
Two Directional Peak Direction Peak Direction Density Time Speed Density Time Volume Speed (mph) (veh/ mile) (min) (mph) (veh/ mile) (min)
(veh/hr) 3 2 38 2 2 100 31 6 2 38 5 2 200 30 9 2 37 7 2 300 30 29 12 2 37 10 2 400 2 37 12 2 500 29 16 19 2 36 15 2 600 28 2 35 18 2 700 28 23 2 33 22 2 800 27 27 2 32 25 2 900 27 30 31 29 2 1000 27 33 2 2 31 32 2 1100 26 38 26 42 2 30 36 2 1200 40 2 26 45 2 29 1300 2 25 50 2 29 43 1400 2 54 2 28 48 1500 25 27 53 2 1600 24 60 3 26 59 2 24 64 3 1700 77 3 20 77 3 20 1700 3 80 3 18 80 1600 18 4 16 84 4 1500 16 84 14 90 4 14 90 4 1400 90 5 13 90 5 13 1300 90 5 12 90 5 12 1200 90 6 11 90 6 11 1100 7 100 7 9 100 1000 9 8 8 101 8 900 8 101 7 103 9 7 103 9 800 105 10 6 105 10 6 700 12 108 12 5 108 600 5 15 4 113 15 500 4 113 3 120 20 400 3 120 20 Note: Peak (Evacuation) direction is assumed to be 90% of tott.1 traffic (1) Average Highway Speed = 40 mph (2) Average Highway Speed - 50 mph
TABLE 10 DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION MULTI-LANE ROADWAf ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS Low Type DesianII) High Type Design (2)
Vo lume Speed Density Ti me Speed Density Time (veh/h r) (mph) (veh/ mile) (min.) (mph) (veh/ mile) (min.)
100 29 3 2 44 2 1 200 28 7 2 43 5 1 300 28 11 2 43 7 1 400 27 15 2 42 10 1 500 27 19 2 40 13 2 600 26 23 2 39 15 2 700 26 27 2 38 18 2 800 25 32 2 37 22 2 900 25 36 2 37 24 2 1000 25 40 2 36 28 2 1100 25 44 2 35 31 2 1200 24 50 3 33 36 2 1300 24 54 3 32 41 2 1400 23 61 3 31 45 2 1500 23 65 3 31 48 2 1600 22 73 3 30 53 2 1700 22 77 3 29 59 2 1800 - - -
28 64 2 1800 - - -
23 78 3 1700 21 81 3 21 81 3 1600 19 84 3 19 84 3 1500 17 88 4 17 88 4 1400 15 93 4 15 93 4 1300 13 100 5 13 100 5 1200 12 100 5 12 100 5 1100 11 100 6 11 100 6 1000 9 111 7 9 111 7 900 8 113 8 8 113 8 800 7 114 9 7 114 9 700 6 117 10 6 117 10 600 5 120 12 5 120 12 500 4 125 15 4 125 15 400 3 133 20 3 133 20 Note: Volume and density per lane (1) Average highway speed - 40 mph (2) Average highway speed - 60 mph
TABLE 11 DENSITY / TRAVEL TIME RELATIONSHIP FOR ONE MILE SECTION EXPRESSdY ADVERSE WEATHER CON DITIONS Vo lume Speed Density Time (veh/h r) (mph) (veh/ mile) (min.)
47 2 1 100 200 46 4 1 46 7 1 300 46 9 1 400 500 46 11 1 46 13 1 600 46 15 1 700 800 45 18 1 900 45 20 1 1000 44 23 1 1100 43 26 1 1200 43 28 1 1300 42 31 1 41 34 2 1400 40 38 2 1500 35 41 2 1600 1700 37 46 2 36 50 2 1800 23 78 3 1800 21 81 3 1700 18 89 3 1600 16 93 4 1500 15 94 4 1400 13 100 5 1300 12 100 5 1200 11 100 6 1100 9 111 7 1000 8 112 8 900 7 114 9 800 6 117 10 700 5 120 12 600 4 125 15 500 3 133 20 400 Note: Voltme and density per lane Average highway speed = 70 mph
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i Sheet 1 of 2 TABLE 13 TOTAL NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATED FROM EACH EVACUATION SECTOR AND TRAFFIC GENERATOR Total Number of Vehicles By Generator By Evacuation Area (1) Traf fic Generator Designation (2)
Evncuation Sector 202 145 21 SW 0-2 57 22W 2743 2743 22E SE 0-2 0 0 23A NE 0-2 57 109 23 NW 0-2 52 24 240 240 51 SW 2-5 0 2245 52 SE 2-5 2245 53 521 6587 54 NE 2-5 3403 56 262 57 93 58 986
. 59 5101 853 511/ 318 512 142 513 9
514 588 8282 515 NW 2-5 532 515A 284 516 618 517 1602
$18 1030 519A 1058 519B 1030 519c 1540 520 (1) For location of evacuation sectors, see Figure 1.
(2) For location of traf fic generators, see Figure 2.
I - -,
~ -- , _ _ . _
l Sheet 2 of 2 TABLE 13 4 .
TOTAL NUMBER OF VEHICLES EVACUATED FROM EACH EVACUATION SECTOR AND TRAFFIC GENERATOR Total Number of Vehicles O Traffic Generator Designation (2) By Generator By Evacuation Area Evacuation Sector 288 1244 NE 5-10 101 102 237 102A 57 103 43 104 120 104A 170 105 329 106 0 0 5303 NW 5-10 107 108 786 109 1873 110 1134 1011 474 1011A 65 1012 191 1013 92 1014 341 1015 347 302 302 SW 5-10 1016 0 9234 SE 5-10 1017 1018 1007 1019 1312 1020 1276 1021 15 1022 1199 1023 582 1024 3019 1025 539 1026 85 36491 36491 GRAND TOTAL (D For location of evacuation sectors, see Figure 1.
(2)For location of traffic generators, see Figure 2.
4 h m
-- , .. r . _ .
i .
Sheet 1 of 8 TABLE 14 PFRMANENT RESIDENT POPtTI.ATION BY TR AFFIC CFNFR4 TORS i
t Buses seguired Total Resident (3) Tots! Daytime (4) Population Leavina(5) Resident s' Car Population for Population Evac ua t ion (1 ) Cenerator(2) ,
leaving Cencrator Without Autoe W ithout Autos Designation _ Population Re a l<!c nt Populat ion By Autos Sector 449 340 117 109 - 3 SW 0-2 21 1228 O G 0 0 0 0' 22 W O O O O 22 E O O SE 0-2 0 0 0 0 23 A 0 0 NE 0-2 0 0 0 0 NW 0-2 23 0 0 50 82 2 632 265 183 24 309 7
' 968 659 168 SW 2-5 51 2567 0 0 0 0 0 SE 2-5 52 0 8 1571_. 1234 1052 337 53 4110 235 156 4 54 2045 643 487 NE 2-5 0 0 0 0 56 0 0 153 56 33 1 57 442 186 24 22 1 58 191 81 59 846 291 274 6 59 2434 1120 1145 865 297 280 7 2487 511 i 42 1 370 170 128 45
.f 512 0 0 0
' 513 0 0 0 42 29 8 13 1 514 102 194 175 4 515 1628 639 464 NW 2-5 0 0 0 515 A 0 0 0
.i 0 0 0 0 516 0 0 l 283- 326 8 517 2844 1252 926 398 252 6 518 2859 1234 982 i 490 189 5 519 A 3114 1121 9 32 490 189 5 519 5 3114 1121 932 4 90 189 5 519 C 3114 1121 932 743 226 262 6 520 2284 1005
Sheet 2 of 2 TABLE 14 PERMANENT RESIDENT POPULATION BY TRAFFIC CENERATORS 8""' 8'"Id Population leaving (5) Besidents' Ca r Population for Population Generator (2) Total R sident(3) Total Daytime (4)
Evacuation (1) Resident Population By Autos leaving Generator Without Auton Without Autos Sec t or De s t ana t ion Populetion 9
272 54 2 1317 461 407 NE 5-10 101 213 297 7 2445 1075 778 102 0 0 0 0 102A 0 0 83 42 20 1 103 496 103 167 85 40 1 104 593 207 9 0 0 0 IU4A 0 0 4 584 297 142 105 2076 126 0 0 0 0 106 0 0 0 0 0 0 107 0 0 NW 5-10 102 35 28 1 108 273 130 16 2158 871 721 109 7574 2879 0 0 0 0 110 0 0 0 0 0 0 1011 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10llA 0 0 0 0 0 0 1012 0 122 3 458 336 89 1013 1147 0 0 0 0 0 1014 0 210 5 723 513 181 1015 1872 169 222 5 1735 729 507 SW 5-10 1016 0 0 0 0 0 0 SE 5-10 1017 153 89 2 1118 391 302 1018 94 83 2 920 350 267 1019 149 15 1 725 260 245 1020 14 9 1 102 38 29 1021 478 251 6 3392 1870 919 1022 328 133 3 2185 809 676 1023 595 102 3 3244 816 774 1024 0 0 0 0 0 0 1025 0 0 0 0 1026 0 0 8979 5777 143 66579 25518 19141 TOTAL (I) For location of evacuation sectors, see Figure 1. *
(2) For locat ion of t raf fic generators, see Figure 2. ,
(3) Demographic inf ormation was derived f rom 1980 cennus inf ormation adjusted to 1982. *
(4) For methodology for determining daytime realdent population, see Section 3.3.1 (5) For methodology f or estimating population with an.1 without autos, see Appendix C.
A
TABLE 15 INDUSTRIAL PLANTS POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 Estimated 1982 Industry Name Generator No. Peak Employment (1)
St John the Baptist Parish Bayou Steel 515A 750 E I DuPont de Nemours 110 1600 Godchaux-Henderson 1011 668 Sewell Plastics 1011A 40 Coastal Canning 1011A 30 Jones Chemical 1011A 23 Continental Grain Elevator 1012 160 Cargill Grain Elevator 1012 110 Marathon Oil Refinery 1014 481 St Charles Parish LP&L Waterford 1 & 2 22W 80 Beker Industries 22E 160 Hooker Chemical 22E 200 Union Carbide Star Plant 22E 80 Union Carbide Linde 22E 80 WITCO Chemical 22E 40 Shell Chemical Taf t Plant 22E 40 Union Carbide 22E 3190 Occidental Chemical 22E 40 Shell Crawfish 22E 40 LP&L Little Gypsy 23 80 Good Hope Refinery 56 2720 GATX 56 120 Shell Oil 56 1960 Shell Chemical Norco 513 200 International Tank Terminal 102A 80 St Charles Grain Elevator 104A 120 Bunge Grain Elevator 104A 120 Monsanto 1025 640 Farmers Export 1025 120 Texaco Gas Plant 1026 120 (1) Includes construction worker employment at those plants where significant constrution is taking place.
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TABLE 17 Sheet 1 of 2 SPECIAL INSTITUTION POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 (1) Estimated 1982 Generator No. Total Population Institution St John the Baptist - East Bank 517 353 Woodland Elementary 518 842 John L Ory School 1331 St Joan of Arc School 518 518 172 Twin Oaks Nursing Home St John the Baptist Jail 518 25(2) 5198 1062 La Place Elementary 519B 620 St Charles H.S. 1577 108 E St John H.S. 141 Vocational - Technical School 109 109 886 Godchaux Henderson Jr. H.S. 254 Reserve Rosenvald School 109 109 637 Riverside Academy 109 384 Godchaux 520 109 St Peter School 109 64 Reserve Christian School 174 Our Lady of Grace School 109 109 731 E St John Middle School 142 Garyville Elementary 1015 1015 189 6th Ward School St John the Baptist Parish - W Bank 51 169 Lucy Elementary 139 Wallace Elementary 1016 1016 360 W John H.S. 416 W John Jr. H.S. 1016 1016 189 Edgardo Elementary St Charles Parish - East Bank 56 561 New Sarpy Middle School 119 Good Hope Primary School 57 l 59 572 Norco Elementary 511 355 Sacred Heart Academy 101 395 St Rose Primary School 434 101 St Rose Middle School 1141 Destrehan H.S. 105 105 434 St Charle s Bo* romeo Elementary
. t TABLE 17 Sheet 2 of 2 SPECIAL INSTITUTION POPULATION WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3 (1) Estimated 1982 Generator No. Total Population Institution St Charles Parish - W Bank Killona Elementary 21 116 Hahnville Elementary 53 272 Carver Element.ary 53 233 53 649 Hahnville Jr H.S.
St Charles Parish Jail 53 30(2)
R J Vial Elementary 1018 435 J B Kartin Jr H.S. 1018 1003 1019 1565 Hahnville H.S. 703 Luling Elementary 1022 St Charles Hospital 1022 125(3)
St Charles Nursing Home 1022 177 Mimosa Park - 1024 1070 1024 803 A A Sengy Elementary (1)For location of traffic generators, see Figure 2.
(2) Based on average occupancy.
(3) Based on total bed capacity.
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l TABLE 19 t
CONFIRMATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR COMMUNITIES WITHIN 10 MILES OF WATERFORD 3(1)
Confirmation Time Estimate Community (in minutes)
Killona 20 Lucy 20 Edgard 20 Hahnville 30 Luling-Boutte 45 Norco 45 Mimosa Park 30 Good Hope 20 New Sarpy 20 Destrehan 30 Ormond Estates 20 St Rose 45 La Place 75 Reserve 60 Garyville 25 (1) Developed from discussions with the Civil Defense Directors in St.
Charles and St. John the Baptist Parisues.
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t APPENDIX A EXAMPLE OF EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE COMPUIATION I
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l In order to understand how the General Purpo.e Simulation System (GPSS) model was adapted to the Waterford 3 site area, a step by step explanation of how the model operates is provided using data from the south 0-2 mile radius as an example.
A schematic representation of the south 0-2 mile radius is given in Figure A-1. Figure A-1 shows the southern half of the two mile ring, traffic generators, roadway network, and special features auch as exit gates leading from the industries (Generator C) to Rt 3142. The three traffic generators indicated on Figure A-1 are the following:
Generator A - Municipality of Killona Generator B - River Road Industries Generator C - Route 3142 oriented industries Flow charts depicting how the computer model simulates the evacuation from each of these generators are shown in Figures A-2, A-3, and A-4, respectively.
The following is a step by step explanation of how the last residents with cars are moved out of Killona (Generator A):
The last group of vehicles (10 passenger car equivalents) leaves 44 minutes af ter time 0 (i.e., start of notification) and travels on local roads (" CON 1" on Figure A-1) toward River Road. This time is randomly selected by GPSS and can vary between 1 and 5 minutes. Three minutes is assumed for this example. Next, this group turns left onto River Road and proceeds west. No delay is anticipated in turning onto River Road. Assuming that the existing vehicular density on River Road at this point in the simulation is 90 vehicles per mile, the travel time for this group on River Road (link "RVR02" on Figure A-1) is six minutes (see Table 4). The total travel time for the example group is nine minutes and they would leave the two mile area 53 minutes (44 minutes + 9 minutes), after the start of notification.
It must be emphasized that the numbers used in the above example were used for illustrative purposes only and therefore may vary slightly from the actual results produced by the model. This is especially true for A-1
s the travel time on local roads which is selected randomly from a specified range (3 + 2 minutes in this case) by GPSS.
In a similar manner to the above example, each vehicle involved in the evacuation simulation was stepped through the network in one minute increments, until each vehicle had been evacuated from the 10 mile EPZ.
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A-2
" - - e -.--- ~ - - _ - - . . . _ , _ . __ __ _ ._ ___
SCHEMATIC OF SOUTH 0-2 SECTOR NOT TO SCALE MAJOR GENERATORS: A - KILLONA B - RIVER ROAD INDUSTRIES C - RT. 3142 ORIENTED INDUSTRIES MINOR GENERATORS: TRAFFIC ON ROADWAYS WHEN ALARM IS GIVEN.
LINK DESIGNATION: RVRO2 (SEE TABLE 5) 1.0 MILE RVR02~\
_ RT.18 (pgy 1.5 MILES yN q ROAD) RVR 01 O WATERFORD @
g A o
8 m.7 N_
N' CON 3 p EXIT c- GATE g 413 l. 4 m E$
5 55 ROUTE 3;gy j *0 Y
4
/
2 MILE RADIUS FROM PLANT (NOT TO SCALE)
LOUl51 AN A F1GURE POWER & LIGHT CO. EVACU AT!ON TIME EST; MATE Waterford steem SCHEM ATIC OF SOUTH 0 2 SECTOR A -1 Electric Stetion
a .
1 FLOW CHART 1 MODEL SEGMENT 2A - MUNICIPALITY OF KILLONA KILLONA KILLONA KILLONA RESIDENTS & ELEMENTARY RESIDENTS EXISTING EMPLOYEES SCHOOLS WITHOUT CARS TRAFFIC GENERATE START GENERATE START GENERATE START GENERATE 130' TIME 20' , TIME l 10' TIME j 10' l VEHICLES 10 MIN VEHICLES '30 MIN '
VEHICLES 30 MIN VEHICLES
- STA RT TIME lf lf h 1 MIN TRANSFER TRANSFER TRANSFER TRANSFER 1f 1f if TRAVEL FROM KILLONA ON LOCAL STREETS TO RIVER ROAD. TIME CON 1 FROM '. TO 5 MINUTES.
NOTE: NUMEROUS STREETS LEAD TO RIVER ROAD.
if i
! RVR02 m
! (FN & RVR 02)
- TRAVEL ON RIVER ROAD. TRAVEL l TIME IS A FUNCTION OF THE NUMBER
! OF VEHICLES ON THE ROAD. (RANGES FROM 2 TO 30 MINUTES.)
V TERMINATE LEAVE THE 2 MILE AREA ON RIVER ROAD WESTBOUND.
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' VEHICLES IN PASSENGER CAR EQUtVALENTS,ie 1 SCHOOL BUS = 3 CARS.IN THE MODEL THE VEHICLES ARE HANDLED IN GROUPS OF 10.
i LOUISl AN A FIGURE POWER & LIGHT CO. EVAcV AT!ON TIME ESTIMATE Waterford Stecm FLOW CH ART OF MODEL SEGMENT A2 Electric Station ,
)
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1
)
FLOW CHART 2 MODEL SEGMENT 28 - RIVER ROAD INDUSTRIES INDUSTRIAL EMPLOYEES FROM VARIOUS INDUSTRIES:
EXISTING GROUP 1 GROUP 2 TRAFFIC GENERATE START GENERATE START GENERATE START 300 TIME 280 TIME 20 TIME 15 MIN VEHICLES ;1 MIN VEHICLES 10 MIN VEHICLES if lf If TRANSFER TRANSFER TRANSFER If
- TRAVEL FROM VARIOUS INDUSTRIAL PARKING LOTS CON 2 TO RIVER ROAD. TIME (523) FROM 3 TO 8 MINUTES NUMEROUS DRIVEWAYS INTERSECT WITH RIVER ROAD I
RVR01 '
(FN & RVR 01)
- TRAVEL ON RIVER ROAD EASTBOUND. TRAVEL TIME IS A FUNCTION OF THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES ON
'I THE ROAD. (RANGES FROM r 2 TO 45 MINUTES.)
ERMINATE : LEAVE THE 2 MILE AREA ON RIVER ROAD EASTBOUND.
LOUI5l AN A FIGURE POWER & LIGHT CO. EV ACU ATIC+N TIME ESTIMATE A-3 Waterford Steam FLOW CH ART OF MODEL SEGMENT Electric Station
FLOW CHART 3 MODEL SEGMENT 2C - ROUTE 3142 INDUSTRIES G1-G5 GENERATE START GENERATE START 300 TIME l 270 TIME VEHICLES l 10 MIN VEHICLES l11 MIN (EACH) // l l
~
]q j 1500 VEHICLES TOTAL if If TRANSFER TRANSFER if if I
- TRAVEL ON VARIOUS DRIVES WITHIN CON 3 THE LARGE INDUSTRIAL AREA. TIME (4 1 3) RANGES FROM 3 TO 7 MINUTES.
if
- GATES (2) LEADING TO ROUTE 3142.
EXIT TRAVEL TIME 1 MINUTE. CAPACITY (1) IS EQUAL TO 3 VEHICLE UNITS PER MINUTE OR 1,800 VEHICLES PER HOUR.
If
- TRAVEL OF ROUTE 3142 (H1 TYPE DESIGN RTA 02 2 LANE ROAD). TRAVEL TIME IS A (FN & RTA 02) FUNCTION OF THE NUMBER OF VEHICLES ON THE ROAD. (RANGE FROM 2 TO 45 MINUTES)
If TERMINATE LEAVE THE 2 MILE AREA ON ROUTE 3142.
LOUISIANA FIGURE POWER & LIGHT CO. EVAcU ATION TIME ESTIMATE FLOW CH ART OF MODEL SEGMENT A4 Waterford Steam Electne Station
~
t APPENDIX B e
EXAMPLE OF RESIDE 3TIAL VEHICLE CALCULATION
o
- 6. There are an estimated 238 d.u.'s with only one car; assuming that 97.1% of these have more than one person (see Step 1.
above), then 231 d.u. 's with only one car also have more than one person.
- 7. According to the 1977 U.S. Census (8) , 70.9% of the workforce drives a car to work. Therefore, if 70.9% of the employees in the 231 d.u.'s (with more than one person but only one car) drive to work, then 164 of those d.u.'s will have someone remaining at home without access to a car during the, day.
- 8. From items Step 3. and Step 7. above,164 x 1.41 people per d.u.
= 231 people lef t without cars f rom the d.u. 's described in Step
- 6. and Step 7. This figure is reduced by 3.6%, to 223, to allow for changes in car ownership patterns since 1970.
- 9. Therefore, 223 + 89 (see Step 8. and Step 4.) = 312 persons in this generator who will not have access to cars and will require alternative means of transportation.
i
- 10. Out of the 643 people in this area who are home during the day, 312 people do not have access to cars. This leaves 331 people 1 in d.u.'s with access to cars. The latter number is divided by 1.41 (persons remaining per d.u.) to obtain the number of cars which will leave the area. This quantity is 235 cars.
S-1 I
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