Text

Discusses Estimation of Nonrecovery Factor Verse Time for Rhr.App a Re Loss of RHR While at Shutdown for PWRs Encl
	ML20044H134
Person / Time
Issue date:	05/13/1993
From:	Long S; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	NUDOCS 9306070456
	Download: ML20044H134 (14)
	v • d • e

NOTE FOR: IPC Task Group File FROM:

Steve Long, NRR/DSSA/SPSB 5'//J /93

SUBJECT:

ESTIMATION OF NONRECOVERY FACTOR VS TIME FOR RHR The IPC risk assessment requires an estimation of the probability of recovery of the RHR function for times on the order of 20 hours2.314815e-4 days 0.00556 hours 3.306878e-5 weeks 7.61e-6 months .

The faults considered relevant are those that could be encountered upon RHR initiation during cool down.

The data contained in Appendix A of "FWR Low Power and Shutdown Accident Frequencies Program, Phase 1A - Course Screening Analysis, Rough Draft Letter Report" (FIN L-1344) was used. A copy is provided as Attachment 1.

Page A-9 of the appendix delineates the various categories of events included in the appendix. Categories 2 and 12 were excluded from the following analysis because they were considered to be non-relevant failure modes for the condition to be analyzed.

In the remaining 10 categories, there are 132 events listed with recovery times.

The fraction of events not recovered by various times are listed in Attachment 2.

All of these events were recovered within 19 hours2.199074e-4 days 0.00528 hours 3.141534e-5 weeks 7.2295e-6 months .

In order to extrapolate the recovery probabilities to slightly longer times, the natural logarithms of these data were fit to a straight line correlation. (Note that this is not the same as assuming that the recovery data fits a simple exponential function, since the resulting correlation line does not pass through 1.0 at time 0.)

Three correlations were tried:

1 Nine data pairs were used; when reccvery data was constant for a period of more than one hour, only the first hour of the period is used.

f 2 Nine data pairs were used, when recovery data was constant for a period of more than one hour, only the last hour was used.

3 Eighteen data pairs were used; when recovery data was constant for a period of more than one hour, all hours were used.

i The resulting correlations were:

$1 p(t) - 0.1061487e-o.1412:36t correlation coefficient - -0.9673

2 p(t) - 0.1113937e-02305'67' correlation coefficient - -0.9650

3 p(t) - 0.1009706e-o.1271 nt correlation coefficient - -0.9440 h

The values corresponding to various times for each of these correlations are provided in Attachment 2.

A graph of the data and correlation lines is provided in Attachment 3.

Although correlation #1 has the best coefficient, Correlation #3 appears to have a slightly better fit at the longer times, and is more conservative for the long times.

This data was used in the IPC risk study by taking the higher of the empirical 9306070456 930513 PDR ORG NRRB

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PDR

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i valun or the #3 correlation valus for the various timas at which recovery I

estimates were required. Where both trains of RHR were failed, it was assumed l

that both must be recovered within the time available to allow successful cool down with two trains. The probability of not recovering both trains was taken as twice the value from the correlation or data table.

The possibility of recovering one train much earlier, so that cool down was possible with only the one train, was neglected. The possibility of recovering one train too late to complete cool down with only one train, but soon enough to allow useful extension of the time for recovery of the second train, was also neglected.

During the review of the draft IPC Task Group Report, Art Busiik (RES) criticized these nonrecovery factors as being too low in comparison with the values he remembered from the TMI PRA. We reviewed that PRA and determined that the value l

of 0.28 had been used for nonrecovery of RHR pumps after 16 and 20 hours2.314815e-4 days 0.00556 hours 3.306878e-5 weeks 7.61e-6 months .

l However, the data used in that PRA for both the nonrecovery probability and the l

failure probabilities seemed to be more consistent with catastrophic equipment failures, rather than the mix of problems represented by the table in the PWR Iow Power and Shutdown Accident Frequencies Program report. The RHR failure rates used in the IPC Task Group Report were taken from the Accident Sequence Precursor Program models, which have higher failure rates than were used in the TMI PRA.

Comparison of the methods used in the TMI PRA and the IPC Task Group Report indicate very close agreement of the results. The product of the RHR failure rate and nonrecovery rate at 20 hours2.314815e-4 days 0.00556 hours 3.306878e-5 weeks 7.61e-6 months in the IPC Task Group Report is (5 x 10-3) x (0.30)

- 1.5 x 10-'

at 16 hours1.851852e-4 days 0.00444 hours 2.645503e-5 weeks 6.088e-6 months , and (5 x 10-3) x (0.016) - 8.0 x 10-5 at 20 hours2.314815e-4 days 0.00556 hours 3.306878e-5 weeks 7.61e-6 months .

While it is difficult to find the proper split fraction from the TMI PRA, the RHR pu=p failure probability used was 3.3 x 10-3/ demand and a common cause failure factor of 0.16 was used. This provides a system failure probability (due to pump failures) of 5.3 x 10-'.

Combined with the nonrecovery factor from the FRA, the probability of unrecovered RHR failure is about (5. 3 x 10-') x (0. 2 8) - 1. 5 x 10-*.

This is the same at 16 hours1.851852e-4 days 0.00444 hours 2.645503e-5 weeks 6.088e-6 months and less than a factor of two different at 20 hours2.314815e-4 days 0.00556 hours 3.306878e-5 weeks 7.61e-6 months .

It should also be noted that the IPC Task Group analysis required recovery of both RHR trains, while the TMI PRA presumably required only the recovery of one train. Thus another factor of 2 could be involved if the TMI values were simply substituted into the IPC analysis. At worst, this would increase the risk from the stuck-open steam line PORV by about 50%. Consequently, the question of which failure and nonrecovery analysis to use does not seem to add substantial uncertainty.

The difficulty in analyzing component failure, common cause failure ~ and nonrecovery probabilities is that they often seem to be based on the analysis of different data sets. The definition stated for failure in most PRAs is usually quite broad.

"Any failure that prevents or would prevent the pump from starting," is an example. However, it appears that analysts often individually choose to include or exclude easily recovered or recoverable failures from the data set when they make their analyses. Unless the failure rates, common cause

4

' fceters end nonrecovsry esti= stas cro bassd en censistant cnalycan of tha sama data, this vill add to the modelling uncertainty.

In the' case of the IPC analysis, consistency cannot be assured, a

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