ML20043F546

Wgrisk Annual Meeting February 24-28 2019 - NRC PRA Use and Development - Rev.1

ML20043F546
Person / Time
Issue date:	02/14/2020
From:	Michelle Gonzalez, Nathan Siu NRC/RES/DRA
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Download: ML20043F546 (14)

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US NRC PRA Use and Development:

2020 Update WGRISK Annual Meeting February 26-28, 2020 Michelle Gonzalez Nathan Siu Division of Risk Analysis Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

NRC Regulatory Process and Integrated Risk-Informed Decision-Making (RIDM)

• NRC Regulatory Process components:

- Regulatory Guidance

- Licensing, Decommissioning and Certification

- Oversight

- Operational Experience

- Support for decision-making 2

Regulatory Guides and ASME/ANS PRA Standards 2020 2021 RG 1.200 Rev. 3 RG 1.200 Rev. 4 ASME/ANS-RA-1.1, Level ASME/ANS RA-S-1.3, Level 3 1/LERF ASME/ANS RA-S-1.2, Level 2 ASME/ANS RA-S-1.4, Non LWRs ASME/ANS RA-S 1.5, ALWR (for trial use)

ANS 58.22, LPSD 3

Regulatory Activities: Operating Reactors/ Risk Informed Licensing

• Risk-Informed Technical Specifications Completion Times

- Risk-Informed Technical Specifications (TS) extended completion times issued Revision 2 to TSTF 505 (ADAMS Accession No. ML18310A171, December 2018)

- 11 operating units have received approval to implement the program

- Other applications under review

- RG 1.177 to address Technical Specification Completion Times and limit to a maximum of 90 days

• 10 CFR 50.69: Risk-Informed Categorization and Treatment of Structures, Systems and Components

- Issued the SE for approval of the first non-pilot 50.69 application.

- Issued SEs approving the program for 25 operating units; other applications under review 4

Regulatory Activities: Operating Reactors / New and Advanced Reactors

• NRC and industry workshop on 50.69/4b lessons learned on January 30-31, 2019.

- Incorporating lessons learned is improving the quality of submittals and efficiency of reviews New/ Advanced Reactors

• NRC preparing to review the non-LWR standard in 2020.

• Draft Regulatory Guide - DG 1353, Guidance for a Technology-Inclusive, Risk-Informed, and Performance-Based Approach to Inform the Content of Applications for Licenses, Certifications and Approvals for Non-Light Water Reactors - Published for public comment May 2019.

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Research Activities PRA and OpE

• SAPHIRE and SPAR

- Continue to expand SPAR model capabilities (e.g., FLEX, IDHEAS-G ECA, etc.)

- Continue to expand detail of generic SPAR models

• Accident Sequence Precursor Program

- Exploring use of data analytics

• Data visualization dashboard using MS Power BI

• Use case for screening Licensee Event Reports

- NUREG/KM on Event Assessment

• Operating Experience

- Feasibility study on predictive maintenance 6

Research Activities: PFHA

• Develop tools and guidance to risk-inform new and advanced reactor design basis as well as licensing and oversight of operating reactors

• Collaborations

- Federal agencies (e.g., DOE Laboratories, USGS, USACE, NOAA)

- International (e.g., IRSN, NEA/WGEV)

- Industry (e.g., EPRI)

• 5th Annual PFHA Research Workshop

- February 19-21, 2020 @ NRC HQ (Rockville, MD)

• New initiatives in 2020:

- Pilot Studies of Methods to develop full flood hazard curves

• Site-scale flooding

• Riverine flooding

• Coastal flooding 7

Research Activities: Fire PRA

• Electrical Cabinet HRRs and Fire Modeling

• NUREG-2178 vol. 1 (April 2016) & vol. 2 (mid-2020)

• Electrical Cabinet Fire Growth, Detection and Suppression Improvements- mid-2020

• Transient Fuel Package HRRs and Fire Growth

• NUREG-2232 Data Report - planned completion early 2020

• NUREG-2232 PRA Method - planned completion late 2020

• High Energy Fault (HEAF) testing

- NRC-RES working with EPRI to update HEAF Fire PRA guidance

- Full Scale Phase II OECD/NEA testing will take place 2019-2021 8

Research Activities: HRA

• The NRC has published RIL-2020 IDHEAS for Event and Condition Assessment HRA method and has developed its software tool.

IDHEAS-ECA is a human-centered HRA method that was specifically built to model the use of FLEX equipment and to be able to replace the agencys SPAR-H method.

The method is also capable for use in non-power reactor applications including spent fuel storage and transportation, fuel cycle facilities, nuclear medicine applications, etc.

The IDHEAS-ECA software is available free of charge for public use

• The NRC is working with the NEA/WGHOF to develop a new task on HRA data. It is the intent of the NRC to use data to inform and update its HRA methods (i.e. IDHEAS).

• EPRI and NRC-RES have collaborated to expand upon the Fire HRA Guidelines (NUREG-1921) to address main control room abandonment (MCRA) scenarios in fire events (published by EPRI in June 2019)

• MCRA HRA guidance:

Supplement 2: HRA Quantification for MCRA (published in 2019) 9

Research Activities: Level 3 PRA Status Dashboard (Updated Jan/2020)

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Reactor, at-power, internal events Complete Phase 2 Complete Reactor, at-power, internal floods Complete L3PRA management review Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 1 Reactor, at-power, internal fires Internal technical review Revised model/documentation Initial model/documentation Phase 2 Phase 2 Phase 1 Reactor, at-power, seismic events Internal technical review Revised model/documentation Initial model/documentation Phase 2 Phase 1 Reactor, at-power, high winds Complete Revised model/documentation Initial model/documentation Reactor, at-power, other hazards Complete N/A Phase 2 Phase 1 Phase 1 Reactor, LPSD, internal events Revised model/documentation TAG review Initial model/documentation Phase 1 Spent fuel pool (all hazards) Task has not yet begun Initial model/documentation Phase 1 Dry cask storage (all hazards)

L3PRA management review Phase 1 Integrated site risk (all hazards)

Initial model/documentation Phase 1 Phase 2 Initial model/documentation Revised model/documentation Internal technical review Internal technical review L3PRA management review L3PRA management review TAG/PWROG review Model/documentation complete 10

Backup Slides 11

Regulatory Guides and ASME/ANS PRA Standards

• Regulatory Guide (RG) 1.174 Rev. 3, An Approach for Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Risk-Informed Decisions on Plant-Specific Changes to the Licensing Basis, January 2018

- Other RGs currently being revised for consistency with RG 1.174 Rev. 3.

• RG 1.175 Rev. 0 An Approach for Plant-Specific, Risk-Informed Decisionmaking: Inservice Testing

• RG 1.177 Rev. 1 An Approach for Plant-Specific, Risk-Informed Decisionmaking: Technical Specifications

• RG 1.178 Rev. 1 An Approach for Plant-Specific Risk-Informed Decisionmaking for Inservice Inspection of Piping 12

SPAR Model Status

1. of Models Low Power Shut Down 8 All Hazards 23 High Winds 18 Seismic 53 Level 2 2 FLEX 66 Total of Number of 75 Models 13

Additional Risk-Informed Activities

• Other risk-informed activities

- Ongoing work to develop risk tools for dry cask storage licensing

- Ongoing work to risk-inform digital I&C

- 2020 Regulatory Information Conference

• Risk Informed awareness workshop, seminars and committees

- Conducted Dynamic PSA Seminar - November 2019

- Risk management team

- Risk informed steering committee 14