ML20042A254
| ML20042A254 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 02/19/1982 |
| From: | Smith P, Smith P NRC OFFICE OF ADMINISTRATION (ADM) |
| To: | Austin Young COMMERCE, DEPT. OF |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20042A225 | List: |
| References | |
| CON-FIN-B-8043, CON-FIN-B-8044, CON-FIN-B-8047, CON-NRC-03-82-112, CON-NRC-3-82-112 NUDOCS 8203230249 | |
| Download: ML20042A254 (8) | |
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NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 7
E WASHf NGTON, D. C. 20555 ec t
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FE819 1982 Mr. Allan H. Young Deputy Director Bureau of Economic Analysis Department of Commerce 1401 K Street, NW Washington, DC 20230
Dear Mr. Young:
SUBJECT:
INTERAGEllCY AGREEMENT NRC-03-82-112 ENTITLED, " DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF ACCIDENTS" Pursuant to the Economy Act of 1932, as amended by I. U.S.C. 686, the U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) desires to enter lnto an agreement whereby the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Department of Commerce, would provide services for the project entitled, " Demographic Projections and Regional Economic Impacts of Accidents."
Accordingly, the parties hereto mutually agree to the following terms of this agreement:
Article I - Statement of Work The Bureau of Economic Analysis will provide services to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission as set forth in the attached Statement of Work.
Article II - Period of Performance The period of performance for the work required hereunder shall commence as of the date of acceptance of this agreement and shall continue for a period of fourteen (14) months to completion.
Article III - Estimate of Cost and Obligation of Funds A.
The' estimated cost to NRC of the work to be performed under this agreement is $100,000.00.
E.
The amount presently obligated by URC for the performance of work under this agreement for fiscal year 1982 is $77,000.00. The remaining funds
($23,000.00) will be obligated by unilateral modification to this agree-ment based on the availability of fiscal year 1983 funding.
8203230249 820225 PDR CONTR NRC-03-82-112 PDR
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Prepayment to BEA in the amount of $77,000.00 is hereby authorized upon receipt of a voucher in that amount. When additional funding is
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obligated by f1RC, prepayment to BEA is authorized in the new amount obligated, upon receipt of a voucher in the amount of the additional funding.
D.
The amount presently obligated is chargeable to the following NRC accounting data:
Project FIN No.
B&R No._
Amount Project l B-8047 20-19-40-42-2
$37,000 Project 2 (Plant No. 1-6)
B-8044 20-19-40-41-2
$33,000 i
Project 2 (Plant flo. 7)
B-8043 20-19-40-43-2
_$ 7,000 Total
$77,000.00 e-l Article IV - Technical _D_irection and Authorized Representatives The Technical Monitor for this requirement is Brian Richter (telephone:
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492-4877). The Project Officer is Anton A. Sinisgalli (telephone: 492-4907).
All technical instructions to the contractor shall be issued through the l
Project Officer. As used herein, technical instructions are instructions to the contractor which provide details, suggest possible lines of inquiry, or otherwise complete the general scope of work set forth herein. Technical instructions shall not constitute new assignments of work or changes of such a nature as to justify an adjustment in cost or performance schedule.
Article V - Billing Instructions i
All requests for payment shall be submitted on Standard Form 1081 in an original and three (3) copies to the following address:
l U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of the Controller Washington, DC 20555 I
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. Mr. Allan H. Young One (1) additional copy of Standard Form 1081 shall be submitted simultaneously with the above copies to the following address:
U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Division of Contracts Technical Assistance Contracts Branch Washington, DC 20555 If you agree with the provisions of this agreement, please so indicate by signing in the space provided below and returning three (3) signed copies to this office.
Sincerely, OnTz-rssA 0/
v Patricia A. Smith, Contracting Officer U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission l
Attachment:
l Statement of Work I
ACCEPTED:
i Bureau of Economic Analysis Department of Commerce 3
A BY:
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(signature)'
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ALLAN 11. YOUNG l
(typed name) l TITLE:
Deputy Director, BEA I
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DATE:
February 25, 1982 P
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Attachment Statement of Work TITLE:
" Demographic Projections and Regional Economic Impacts of Accidents" BACKGROUllD The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Siting Analysis Branch (SAB) has the lead responsibility in reviewing and evaluating the social and economic impacts related to the construction, the operation, and the accident consequences of comercial nuclear power plants.
SAB provides the technical overview of the socioeconomic sections of Draft Environmental Irapact Statements (DES's) and Final Environmental Impact Statements (FES's) for nuclear power plants. This requires, among other inputs, projected demographic and economic activity for a multi-county impact region around each plant. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Department of Commerce, is the primary federal agency providing such data and forecasts, and, as such has been providing input to power plant environmental impact analysis since 1977.
OBJECTIVE The objective of these projects is to obtain projected demographic and economic activity for the socioeconomic impact areas identified herein.
1.
PROJECT 1 - DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS A.
Backaround
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Existing methodology to provide demographic inputs to perform analyses of accident potential, emergency evacuation, and socioeconomic analysis must be augmented with the most recent l
Census data and reliable population projections.
B.
Objective The objective of this project is an analytical system that provides for the assessment of population growth potential in the geographic i
l sectors as defined by HRC surrounding 25 nuclear power plant sites.
l The output of this system will be used to prepare various sections of Final Environmental Statement and Safety Evaluation Report (SER) documents and to provide the demographic input for the emergency evacuation analytic process.
C.
Work Requirements Task Completion Date i
Task 1 - Based on existing BEA projections 120 days after receipt l
prepared in 1980 and on 1980 Census of NRC input l
counts, prepare two alternative l
working files of county-level population projections. Each file will contain data for 1970 and 1980 j
(historic) and 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, 2020, and 2030 (projected).
t Statement of Work Task 2 - Implement the computer system 120 days after appropriate to the analytic completion of Task 1
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system outlined in the objective above. The output of the system will indicate historic and project-ed growth rates for the geographic sectors around each nuclear plant site.
In addition, the system will indicate historic and pro-jected population growth rates for each county used in the determination of the sector growth rates.
Task 3 - Execute the system and provide NRC 90 days after completion with hard-copy summaries of the of Task 2 projected growth rates for the geographic sectors at each site.
These hard copy summaries are to be prepared for both of the alter-native working files prepared in Task 1.
This interagency agreement requires BEA analysis of population growth potential in the vicinity of 25 nuclear power plant sites. Each site will be described by a set of verified coordinates to be supplied by NRC and a circular area with aradiafdistanceof500 miles.
Each circular area will be divided into 16-22.5 s? dors each of which is centered on a compass point.
In addition, each cir% Iar area will be subdividedinto cencentric rings at the following distances:
(1) 0 to 10 miles in single mile increments (2) 0 to 5 miles (3) 5 to 10 miles
- 4) 10 to 20 miles
- 5) 20 to 30 miles
- 6) 30 to 40 miles (7) 40 to 50 miles (8) 50 to 60 miles (9) 60 to 70 miles (10) 70 to 85 miles (11) 85 to 100 miles (12) 100 to 150 miles (13) 150 to 200 miles (14) 200 to 350 miles (15) 350 to 500 miles
c Statement of Work To insure the utility of the system output in licensing proceedings, BEA will give highest priority to the following sites:
Indian Point Limerick
- 3) Zion (4) TMI (5) Seabrook (6) St. Lucie (7) WNP-2 The identification of the remaining 18 sites and their relative priorities will be provided to BEA by NRC within 30 days of the effective date of the agreement.
II. PROJECT 2 - REGIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT ACCIDENTS A.
Background and Objective NRC must prepare a DES and a FES for the plants listed below. The objective of this project is to obtain regional economic impact analyses of accidents for input into the DES and FES.
B.
Work Requirements Using the methodology refined by BEA under NRC contract No. NRC-03-81-117 generate estimates of regional economic impacts of baseline historical and projected data and changes based on up to 4 accident scenarios to be furnished by the NRC for each of the seven plants listed below:
l Plant No. 1 Skagit I
Plant No. 2 South Texas Plant No. 3 River Bend Plant No. 4 Shearon Harris Plant No. 5 Limerick Plant No. 6 Bellefonte Plant No. 7 Clinch River The Project Officer will notify BEA of any changes in the listing of the seven plants to be studied if appropriate.
III. REPORTING REQUIREMENTS 1.
At the completion of Task 1, Project 1, provide the Project Officer, NRC, with (1) a set of tables showing baseline historical and projected data on population, and growth rates for each county.
2.
At the completion of Task 2, Project 1, provide the Project Officer with a report (2 copies) describing the computer system implemented.
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Statement of Work
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3.
At the completion of Task 3. Project 1, provide NRC with hard-copy summaries of the alternative growth rates for the geographic sectors at each site (2 copies each).
4 At the completion of the impact analysis for each plant in Project 2, provide the Project Officer with a report for each plant which contains (1) a set of tables showing baseline historical and projected data on total personal income, population, earnings and employment by industrial sector and (2) a set of tables showing changes in personal income; population; output; and, earnings and employment by industrial sector for the accident scenarios furnished by NRC.
Each report is estimated to be submitted 60 days after receipt of data from NRC for each plant.
5.
A monthly business letter report is to be submitted by the 15th of the month to the Project Officer; with, copies to: the Contracting Officer, Division of Contracts; Director, Division of Engineering, ATTN: C. Poslusny; and ATTN: D. Muller; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, ATTN: B. Grenier, which contains:
- a listing of the efforts completed during the periods; milestones reached; or, if missed, an explanation provided;
- the amount of funds expended for both manpower and for computer services during the period and cummulative to date for Project 1 and for each plant (by name) in Project 2;
- any problems or delays encountered;
- a summary of progress to date;
- plans for the next reporting period.
IV. MEETINGS AND TRAVEL Local travel for up to four meetings in Bethesda, Maryland for two people, and travel from Washington, D.C. to k'noxville, Tennessee for two people for three days and nights is anticipated for BEA personnel in perform-ance of these projects.
V. NRC FURNISHED MATERIALS For project 1, BEA will be provided with the latitude and longitude for each site, the site priorities, and the description of the geographic sectors by angle and distance from the sites (i.e. for 18 additional sites, within 30 days of the effective date of the agreement). For Project 2, BEA will be provided with data describing the industrial sectors and counties affected by each of the plants and up to four accident scenarios for each plant. NRC will also identify the periods for the projected base to be consistent with the accident scenarios.
(The initial input will be provided within 30 days of the effective date of this agreement at which time a schedule for provision of the remainder of Project 2 input will be agreed upon).
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.....s State 6ent of Work VI. (STIMATED LEVEL OF EFFORT' e-It is estimated that the level of effort required to perform this work is as follows:
Project 1: One-half staff year Project 2: One-half staff year i
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