ML20041E565

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Beirmod,A Computer Program for Calculating the Effects of Exposure to Ionizing Radiation
ML20041E565
Person / Time
Issue date: 05/31/1978
From: Willis C
NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES)
To:
References
NUREG-0444, NUREG-444, PB-279-584, NUDOCS 8203110087
Download: ML20041E565 (39)
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BEIRMOD, A COMPUTER PROGRAM

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Effects of Exposure to Ionizing Radiation PB 279 504 ~

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" "'" October I yg"77 Charles A. Willis DATE HEPORT ISSUED eviNg Oac ANiiAltON N AVE AND M AILING ADOGESS flace<se 2 0 Caawl 9 reg.[ceorStancardsDevelopment j,197 L o~iH eA.

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15. ABSTR ACT CCO e*ws: ce esd This report explains and tells how to use the BEIPf".00 (Biological Effects of The program uses the rt.odels from the Iorizing Radiation Models) cceputer program.

The user e.ay select (1) either ::ie relative risk or the absolute risk BEIR Report.

model, (21 either 30 years or " remainder of life" for the platecu duration for cancer other th,in leukemia, (3) the exposure period, and (4) tne exposure rate. Output includes average life shortening (by radiation-induced cancer), percent of deaths caused by radiation, and average life span reduction per person-rem.

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1 BEIRMOD, A COMPUTER PPOGRAM FOR CALCULATING THE EFFECTS OF EXPOSURE TO IONIZING RADIATION l

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6 Manuscript Creptetal: October 1977 3

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Date Published: May 1978 t

Division of Siting. Health and Safeguards Standards Office of Standards Development U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commisuon Washenston, D. C. 20555 I

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This report explalns and tells how to use the BEllGCO gBlologlCal Effects of Ioniging Radiatiot. t%dels) cc,aputer program. The progree uses the models f ree the BEIR Report. The

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user may select (1) either the relative risk or the absolute riset model, (2) either 30 yeaes or "rematoder of life" for tM plateau duration for cancer other than leukeala, (3) the esposv e

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r period, a#4 (4) the espesure rate. Gutput includes average life shortening (tsy radiatio <v-induced cancer), percent of oesths ceased by radiation, erwl average life span reductice per person-ree.

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The National Acaoeey of Sciences' Aditsory Committee on the Biologir.at lifects of lonizing e r calculattng the probabil'ty that an *a erage" person Radiation (BEIR) has developed mooels o

will develop c over as a consequence of espot are to lontaing radiation.' In the BEIR Report, the models were appIled in a retrospective manner. That is, the analyses shew what netter of radiation deaths would te espected in a year if a specified population had already received a specified espesi.re.

This approach simplified tfie calculations by avoiding the problee of competing risks.

In many destances there is a need to know what the ef fects would be if a specified gro@

were esposed in the same manner for a period of years. Also, it is interesting to coepare the ef fectiveness of a particular population dose delivered at variot.s rates and at v arious ages.

The bilRN00 cte was develcped to perf orm these calculattoss. Lae of the coce by the HEC staff in its analysis cf a petition to lower dose limits is illustieted in Appendia A.

2.

A55Le9110NS AND t!MI...CM The f,rincipal assamptions are those of the EEIR Report, including the BEIR Report dati for Lte " natural

  • cancer rate f or the relatine rtS6 model calculattors.

Ibe sain assusction incorporated in tne coce itself in the

  • natural" risk values. Itese tre tamen directly f roe the 1961 mortality data for tre entire United States. These data are estrap' lated esponentially to a annimas rist value of 0.5.

Toert would te little chang in tre results if more recent data were used. nowever, s gnificant changes would resalt f race-and sea specific data were used. It would not be approgriate, however, to use race-and ses-specific mortality data for "ratural" risks unles, race-aN ses-specific parameter values for cancer indaction by radiation were used (these values are not in the BEIR Report).

Ibe saaliest time interval considered is one year eacept for in utero esposure, which is i

0.75 year. Ibere seems to be no lustification for the conslocration of smaller tire intervals.

Calculatices end at age 120. The nuat>er of people living longer is not significa t for n

these calculations.

BEIRMCD does not account f or radiation ef f ects other than car 4er. Acute effects of radia-tion, f or esasole, are caitted along with r:onspecific life snorteeing, etc. Ite omission should be recognized, especially in the use of tre results for very large annual doses (100 rees/yr or more).

Advisory Comittee en the Biolcgical E f f ects of lonizing Ra:iations *The [f fects on Popula-i tior.s of Isposure to tow Levels of Icntring Radiation." hstsoeal Aca3emy of Sciences -hatior.al besearch Council, =ashington, D.C., kc.eeeer 1972.

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The risk values are handled as probabilities; the total risk is not allowed to anceed I in any year. This handling of the risk parameters is a factor only for the very old and in cases i

in which the doses are very large.

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PiTi<0 0F CALCutAf104 I

lhe calculation tegins with two groups of people, 41 *esposed" group and a " control" group, f ach group contains 1000 people at birth and each is reduced in s. umber, year by year, accor1 lng to age-specific risk salues.

For the control group, the age-specific risk values correspond to the 1%7 mortality data for tSe U.S. snpulatir,r.. The exposed group also empertexes these " natural" risks to which the radiation rists are ad&d. For eaample, during ?.he 10th year of Ilfe, the risk (individual probability of death) free natural caates is taken as 0.0C027, so the control grouw is reduced by C.27 in that year (fractional deaths are incloded). The rist a9d nuncer of deaths in the asposed roup depends on the previous esposure and the risk model used. For esposure at 1 feel yeae since conception, the relative risk eodel gives a risk of 0.00003 for leunesia and 0.0000125 f or otter cancer. Thus tFe esposed group would be reduced by 0.3125 deaths during the tenth year.

In this way, the nat ral and the radiological risks are calculated, and the number of g

people in each gro.p is recuced accordingly each ) ear. Ibe number of survivors is tabulated, y

it.e sum of tre nuacer of s.rvivors each year gives the total ruater of yea's lived the dit-f erence Detween the nunoer of years inteJ by trie esposed group and tric nurter of years lived by the control group Is the a, era e lifespan redutict The distribution of the radiation-induced cancer deaths is calculated by the EEIR Report model. Tre output table shows the number of deaths in a group of 1000 people, but fra:tional jeaths are eccorded so the results can be adjusta d to any desired nreer of people.

The program is listed in Appendia B.

4.

U$f CF Bf f Rmo The BEIDOD code ;s designed for easy use. The user need only supply 9 (or more) data tards that define t;.e results desired and tie options selected. Each ites >f input data sust be on a separate e.ard.

Each entry must be 'n the first 10 coluens of the card and it sust be presented as a real nxer (*F" format).

4 The first 9 iteet of lepat are:

1.

ACE WEN ICGADIATION STARTS.

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A;[ Wh(N 1RRADI Ai!CM $1 CPS.

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ANNUAL Dose: IF 0, A RA%;E 15 ustD.

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'4 If C, IRGADI ATE 10 AGF CIblN IN 2.

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IRRADIAi!De FtRIOD; Q

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IR4CIATICM STARI AGE ST[P: IF 0,001 CASE.

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SELECT Rl!E M00iL: 0 = A850tuit; 2 = RELA 11bE.

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N.PelR OF 005f.5 SP[t!FIID BItW.

If Ites I, age when irradiation starts, actually refers to the flest year of irradlition.

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the entry is aero, in utero esposure is includes. If the entry is one, irradiation starts at f

I Iris entry must te a positive wSole twt.er less than 120.

I birth, etc.

L If the Ites 2, age when irradiation stops, refers to the birthday when irradiation ends.

entry is one, irradiation stops on the first birthday, This entry must be a positive whole nuncer less than 121.

The prograe is written to use values between 0.001 and Ites 3 is tre annual dcse in rees.

a If sero is used, the program or smaller values may give inaccurate results.

1000. Larv e interprets this as a signal to repeat the catrulations with 31 different dose values ranging Thus this entry shouto be either zero or a positive number from 0.001 to 1000 rea per year.

between 0.008 and 1000.

for cancer other than leu eela, ref ers to the time period over s

Item 4, plateau curation i

The Bf!R Seport recoseends estrer whir.h the risk of cancer f rom a single esposure pers sts.

normally will be either 30 or 120 (the 'atter 33 years ce daration of life. Thus this entre reenleg duration of 1if e), althoug% another posi.tve whole nunt,,r could t,e used.

is seven A Jero gives a f ull set of ou'.put, which Itea 5 selects the output desired.

43rmally, it is desirable A two lleits the output to a sie gle sweary table.

tables per case.

the full output becomes volu irtous for m

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to get the full output only when a siegte case multiple cases such as the ra9e of doses option or a range of ages at the start of esposu*e.

This er.try should be either 0 or 2.

If the Itee 6, irradiation period, is the number of years during wnich esposure occurs.

That is, esposure starts vslue entered is rero, this entry has no ef f ect en the calculation.

Itee 2.

W n a numDer other than zero is hen indicated by Itee I and steps when indicated by This option is of nitrie value escept w

entered, it overrides the stop esposure age of Ites 2.

the option for varying the age at the start of irradiation when used in conjunction with This entry SSould be a positive whole number less than Ill.

(!tes 7).

'f the entry is Item 7 is the sicp slie for varying the age at start of irradiation.11 a value other than I

zero, a single case will te run using the start age specified in Itee 1.

zero is entered, the start age will be increased by the value entered and tre calculation irradiation The start age will be repeate'lly increased until the age at the e9d ct repeated.

WSen an irradiation period otter than zero (Item 6) is specified, the (Iten 2) is reached.

This entry should be t positive whole l

start age will be increased step by stet, to age 100.

nunter less than 100.

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Itee 8 selects tre risk model used. The absolute risk model is used if the entry is fero and tee reletive risk model is used if the entry is 2.

4o other models are available. This entry st4uld be 0 or 2.

Itee 9 gives the number of doses specified on subsegweet cards. When a single erposure rate is to be used for the entire period (the rate in Itse J), the Itee 9 entry will be zero.

Far This entry is related to the option of specifying dif ferect doses for dif ferent years.

g enamle, or>e eight =lsh to calculate the rists f rom annual espostres of 2.7, 0.02, 11.5, 3.1, 0.0, 4.1 and 0.003 rees. The Item 9 entry would be 7 and tre annual doses would be entered on There sust be one dose per card and ore card for each yese (even if the dosa subser,uent cards.

is zero). When this option is used, Ites 1 (age at the start of irradiation) is used but Itee 2 (age when irradiation stops) is ignored.

A auestionr. aire (Table 1) was developed for people who want BEltdOD results but who do not i

The answers to these questions provide all the information have direct access to a computer.

f needed to crepare eE!RM00 input.

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EnAMPLES CF Rf 50tTS Fev 8Ef pM00 Tables 2 through 12 are esamples of the results that can be obtained with BEIRM00.

Table 2 shcans the input data, i.e.,

the instructions given by the u,er.

The input data are always repeated in the output to reatnd the user what results he actually requested. This data set is for sint

.aSe in which treadiatico occurred throughout lif e, f roe year Zero ear 120, with 0.8 ree celivered each year T w relative risk socel is used with (in uteru) to s leu esta. A full output is sought. ho a " duration of life" plateau for cancer other tha.1 s

year-by year annual doses are specified (see Table 12).

Tables 3 through 8 are the results obtainej with the f able 2 loput.

Table 3 displays data stored in BEIRM00; these are t*4 " natural" risks of cancer that are used for the relative risk model calculations. These valwes art taken directly from the BEIR Report and are the same for every case run.

Table 4 gives the age-specific risks. The second and third coluens are calculated risks resulting from the specified radiation esposure with tre specified EEIR model. The fourth colt-na is the " natural" risk corresponding to the 1%7 U.S. mortslity statistics.

Table 5 shows the ef fects of the above risks en the survival of two groups of 1,000 people; the "esposed" group received the radiati6n wolle the "cor. trol" group experiences only the

" natural

  • risks. At the beginning of year one, the dif ference in nunter of survivors in the two groups (Column 4) is sero. During year one, tre nuncer of eesths da to radiation-induced cancer (Column 5) is small, only 0.02312 (that is to say, had the initial esposed group con-tained 100,000 people there would have been about 2 raolation deaths). The totals at the end the total nder of years of life lost to radiation cancer aw the nuncer of of Table 5 show

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radiation deaths.

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Table 1 i

t QUE5110N5 FOR USER 5 CF THE BEIGMCO CCCC

[m90su e can start de 3r9 want irradiatic.n to start?

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n with ord set 1.

At wha'. age Case, with dif ferent start ages can be ru in utern.

of ine,t (see Question 7), but this is the smallest age used.

At what age should Irradiation step? Mute that irradletion stops 2.

e when tw a7 is reacfwd.

Cases with aan different What arou.al date (rea) should be used?

annual dates (ranging free 0.001 to 1000 rees) can be run otta one

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set of t egut.

j The 8(18 What plate au duration for cancer otter than.leukeela?

4, Report uses either 30 years or cu ation of life, j

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Do you want a full set of output (7 tables per case) or bst the h

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summary (1 table per case)?

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Do you want to specify an irradiation period rather tf an haeing This ce";&n is siGolfl*

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Irradiation continue to a spectited age?

cant only when used with the me.ltiple start ap option of Q sestion 7.

Do you want to run several cases with dif ferent start Irvadiation

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ages?

If yes, tow m.<h should the st,rt ages t.e Increased e xh time'!

Cive a sir,qle whole nunt,er.

Which ev)3e1 shnuld t.e used, absolute rtst or relattet risa?

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yes _ o Do you wish to specify year ty year annual cases to Le used.

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if yes Ilst in order the annual doses to be used; a "4,se must be given for each year, even if it is zero.

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.t.9 03-0 9 e.? no-01 4.10b-01 13 5 t.7ID-04 4.Or;p 03 '.3 3; -01 S.O.D-On tio ).7 4-04 e.15. - D.* 3.005-01 S.C43-01 11 *. 2.7 3D- 04 's.9 0-3J t.0CD-01 S. Ci t -01 liv 732-os 4.71s-03 S. C C L-01 S.CSO-01 a b =. -

~ _ 4 ) . ~ -. -. .,.. 7-..g. p . ~ _ _ _. - 'I t I j re i 1 4 W f l d I i't I I' Table 5 s U*%fr.L 13t:41109 j Mt CMikbLb LAIoft! DIPPrltatt 1, t ?.7N ;. t 1.0001 03 1.000s*0J 0.0 7.J12D-0? S 9.7e;s=0 6.7a t ',. P. 1.4**L-Og J.67eD-02 16 9.73et+0e v.73 1. e 0 / 2.9e1?-01 J.tn9L-04 It **. 7 /11.e 0 / w.71 t+,0 4 .s. / 'a*1 - 01 1.08879-92 20 9.0 7. b + 0 ? 9.nt.4p 0/ s.r 6*s D.11 1.%2b-02 /t v.603.*0e

  • .. S' e t,
  • 0 t 4. 7 /wr 01

/.173D-04 JD w.Saat.+0,

  • .4.7be0/

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    • . 4 3 'sts
  • C / P.013 b-C l - 4. 31h te-01 a0 **.14 31.e a e *. 33eDe04 3.J o t t,e 00 1.049D-31 4 ', 9.incre0/ **. %. !
  • C /

1.74eb+00 1.1/1/-01 '30 ?.9 st bo o.- 6. s w!*

  • 0s /.P tDao b0

'e. $ 1 1 [,- 01 $$ P.'s 7%, o/ a. a j 4:=* 0 4 .I.'s o p t. 00 t. 4

  • S t.- 01 ob e'.0 ste0.

7.ertp*0/ o..s 7*.p e 00

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7. e :a 4 D + 04
  • .Sw e t
  • e0 8.. t' 4 % D-01 7J o.873beJ/

ei.te?seC/ 1.sb7be01 1.14 /b e 00 7. 5.13 < ue p.- '.,73t.ect

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  • 01 *. 4 0 s t'-01 4

eO f.6 P a!.

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  • .bs'D-01 rS 4.2 4. e
  • C d 2.06Jaept 1.J 131.+ 01 a.CJ2L-01

+1 1.0 0 J t' + t / v.//71 ee t 7.9 St.+03 6.ow9P-01 1.t' n a :

  • 01..! ei79,01

/.wo30*00 1.0SPL-31 IVJ 4.70eb*00 f.e.09 r0 4.sb>b-01 1.9040-0/ th

1. 4.s 1 D - 01 1.1446 -0 1.. J a ' b- 0 /
  • >.1r' o D - 0 4 11J 4.'4717-02 a.* o.D -4. J
    • .0 4 ok-04
1. w 1 D-0's 11?

1.1 % 7,,- 0 4a n.Do's-04 J.:2DL-GS 4.n?.9-07 l 14 0 4.Suut-Gu s.l?)b-Ob 1.1919-un 1.Sn2D-On tb1AL. a.9*0t*04 4.cleD*01 I f I e I 7 4 ) i a 4 1 ,w,_ _ _ _=... m.,

6ssa -... - ~ _ -. - -. i Table 6 shows the number of deaths each year in both the esposed group and the control group. lable a shows the distribution or " diation-inouced cancer deaths among the various kinds of carcer. Table 8 summarizes the previous tables and G ves some dose-specific data. The 'trst Ifne i gives the total number of years the exposed group was esposed (in this case, throughout life, which is taken as 120 years). During each of thes: years, the survivor received 0.8 ree. Most people live a little more than 70 years, so the average lifetime dose (Line 3) is 56.85 rees. Line 4 iMicates that 3.618% of the esposed gr%cp died of radiation-induced cancer." The life scan of the espased group is reduced 0.4990 years on the average (Line 5). This life span reducticn constitutes a reducti.n of 0.7047% (Line 6). With t'ei-exposure mode, each million man-ren causes 636.5 deaths (Line 7) and each san-res reduces s'fe span by 3.206 days (Line 8). Lire 9 indicates that the average radiation-induced cancer death shortens life by 13.79 years. Tables 9 tnroug% 11 are the results of groups of cases. 4 lable 9 shows the ef fects of radiation esposure for a finea period (throughout Ilfe, in this instance) for various annual doses. Cases range from 0.001 to 1,000 reos annually. This table cuntains the summaary data for the many (31) ccses run. Table 10 again shows the effects of radiation esposure, but here the annual dose is fi*ed and the age at which esposure star's is varied. Imposure continues to a flaed age. Table 11 also shows the results for cases where esposure starts at various ages. Here, however, esposure continues for a fixed period (5 years in this esaeple), so exposure steos at various ages. Table 12 is a special case in which the individual annual doses are specified by the user. These doses are displayed in the " Input data

  • section of the table. Esposure starts as stated in the input, but esposure ends when each of the supplied annual doses has been used once. by dose value can te used, but a value must te given for each year, even if the value is zero, o This is the percenta;e of the entire " exposed" group, including those who die before irradia-tion starts. For enasple, if esposure starts at age 20 (Table 4) 3.31% of the "esposed* wro@

die before irradiation starts. 8 i

pe= 4 .. g. (- em ll l t l Table 6 i A%huAL DLATr$ i E25UbtD C0sF90LS I bG E LiOKEMIA UTHth bg10hAL TOTA L 1 0.011 0.014 J1.0o0 29 10 3 11.080 3

0. 01$

0.01/

0. !.o o 0.S93 0.56b 13 0.02J 0.010 0./bJ
0. t9 6 0.263 13 0.013 0.0 0.d%1
0. 6S 2 0.642 20 0.0 12 0.004 1.315 1.331 1.31S JS 0.0 11 0.011 1.4tG 1.442 1.421 33 0.010 0.01o 1.449 1.4S7 1.4JO JS J.OU9 0.034 1.the 1.923 1.882 l

40 0.012 0.09b

2. 774

/.ed? 2.77S 4t 0.012 0.101 4.123 4.2JS 4.131 50 0.021 0.2J0 o.0e5 b.3th 6.105 SS 0.040 0.130 m.94v

9. 19 9 8.991 i

63 0.0s9 0.o90 12.74J 13.439 12.616 e5 0.03o 0.o49 17.It4

17. b6 9 17.414 70 0.071 1.071 2J.24s JJ.3w0 22.736 75 0.057 0.tt4 Jo.rJ2 47.7a2 17.677 do 0.008 0.v44 2r.71S 29.703 J0.044 e5 0.041 0.! b e 15.009 16.271 27.283 9J 0.025 0. 14 5 17.las 17.5%h 18.675 95 0.007 0.099 7.429 7.JJS u.0$3 1J O 0.001 0.01J 1.J71
1. 3n t 1.578 IJ) 0.000 d.000 o.000 0.060 0.071 ilJ 0.003 0.000 0.002 0.002 0.00 2 11 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.300 12 )

0.003 0.003 0.033 0.000 0.000 au f4 LS J.7SJ 33.429 9hJ.d11 999.993 999.393 Table 7 Mauta110s-1naucto centre Df A ?:15 AJE L EU 5 t M I A hk!AST LHed GI PONE OT9 tR 1 0.010b9 0.00273

0. 10 s/3
0. 00 s e v 0.003;0 0.00249 2

0.01abt 0.004o4 0.00J19 0.00244 0.00049 D.00243 10 0.32J12 0.00/93 0.00254 0.03195 0.00039 0.00195 15 0.01047 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40 0.011bo 0.00122 0.00100 0.00061 0.00016 0.000bt 25 0.010$7 0.00J35 0.00410 0.00223 0.00045 0.00223 30 0.01004 0.005J1 0.00 ae.0 0.00JSP 0.00071 0.00354 35 0.0093n 0.0104) 0.00bos 0.00682 0.00136 3.00662 40 0.01174 0.01940 0.02SSJ 0.01564 0.00393 3.01964 45 0.01153 0.0131t 0.02e16 0'.02012 0.00402 3.02012 5J 0.ce073 0.00911 0.0$990 0.04eos 0.00922 0.0460s SS 0.019m7 0.30 eve 0.05971 0.04593 0.00999 0.04S93 60 0.039/1 0.20709 0.17 94 F 0.13506 0.02741 0.13906 03 0.03558 0.1947s 0.100a* 0.129b5 0.02S47 0.129u5 70 0.07090 0.3213n 0.27853 0.2142a 0.04435 0.21426 75

0. 0% hS 4 0./0515 0.22930 0.17b77 0.0 3S35 0.17677 b0
0. 06 e 70 0.t7597
0. 23 v 17 0.1339' O.036e0 n.19399 es 0.0a 06 3 0.1ubte 0.14600 0.1123J 0.02246 0.11230 90 0.32518 J.10111 0.0a9ez 0.06 eve 0.01J79 0.06894 95 3.00701 0.02964 0.02So9 0.0147n 0.03195 0.01976 M3 0.03063 0.003d3 0.00332 0.00eSS 0.000S1 0.00255 IJ 5 0.00003 0.0001$

0.00013 0.00010 0.00002 0.00010 110 0.03000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.0c000 0.00000 115 0.03000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 12 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 C.00003 0.90000 0.00000 TO T A L 2.75) 10.02sst 8.b4163 b.68587 1.33717 6.68587 9

-L----- Tabhe 8 su st a h : TEARS LZPOSLL 1.197t*02 AV E A4 nU AL bust n.000s-01 a AV E LI PETI ME LOSc* 5.mL5te01 IC1 dAu bEATPS a 3.b t ss e 00 ATE fg4ph Lohr a 4.9 9 0 t- 01 PC T TE AR S 1051 7.0472-01 OL AT.th/M LG Akt M a 6.3o5E002 D413 LOG 1/Pt3

3. 041*33 TRb LOS F /s1 AT n 1.J79E*01 Tab'e 9 CONSEQUPBCES OF 410181.*05 EXPSURE FROM AGE 0.0 TO AGE 120.0 DOSE RATE PCT DEATM5 135 LOST DELT55 PE4 DAYS LOST TRS LOST R EG A-M AB
  • EM PEP PAB-BEM P!R DEATB 0.001 0.005 0.0006 651.1 3.2395 13.62 0.022 0.009 0.0013 651.0 3.2394 13.62 0.003 0.014 0.0019 651.0 3.2394 13.62 0.005 0.023 0.0032 651.0 3.2393 11.62 J. 00 E 0.037 0.0051 650.9 3.2Ji2 13.62 0.010 0.047 0.0063 650.9 3.239" 13.62 0.020 0.093 0.9127 650.7 3.2386 13.63 0.010 0.140 0.0190 650.5 3.23R2 13.63 0.050 0.233 0.0317 650.2 3.2374 11.63 0.080 0.372 0.0507 649.6 3.2361 13.64 0.100 0.464 0.0633 649.2 3.2353 13.64 0.100 0.925 0.1264 647.4 3.2310 13.66 0.300 1.382 0.1892 645.6 3.2268 11.69 0.500 2.287 0.3139 641.9 3.2185 13.73 0.800 3.618 0.4990 636.5 3.2060 13.79
1. 00 0 4.490 0.b210 632.9 3.1977 13.83 2.000 8.061 1.2160 615.7 3.1571 14.04 3. 00 0 12.541 1.7eb5 599.2 3.1175 14.25 5.000 19.523 2.8604 56 8.4 3.0416 14.65 8.000 28.356 4.3227 527.2 2.9354 15.24
10. OJ O J3.345 5.2117 502.6 2.8692 15.63 20.000 50.936 8.8748 406.3 2.5857 17.42 30.000 61.212 11.6166 340.5 2.3644 19.01 50.000 72.200 15.6446 25 8. 3 2.0440 21.67 80.000 79.699 19.7272 192.2 1.7377 24.75 t0 0. 00 0 81 451 21.7777 165.6 1.5979 26.41 200.000 89.591 28.7695 103.2 1.2217 32.47 300.000 91.014 34.0959 78.7 1.0764 37.46 500.000 9 3. 2"e 1 45.0394 57.1 1.0J71 48.29 800.000 94.765 61.5750 44.0 1.0411 64.99 1000.000 95.320 72.h523 39.4 1.0975 76.22 REL& TITE RISK MODEL LIFETIME PL&TRLD, CABCER DTM ER 7545 LEOK FMI A 10

p< f J Table 10 1 1 1 C09treDE4Cr Or ?4L131:0B ttP0509E Pfbi f th!O97. Abl5 TO 120 4r 1.030 REMS /TR 5;&*7 tct trant 31stM5 tts Dafs Lost tas Lost l t &JE P141M? LOST 99.G A-P A t-5EM P!9 R&h-ttM Pt4 DFATH 3. h.490 0.6210 612.* 3.1477 11.51 S. 3.332 0.4372 501.6 2.4337 13.12 l 10. 1.tth '0.23/4 306.1 1.3146 12.26 15, 1.ed$ 0.1736 260.J 1.11e3 11.70 20. 1.336 0.1519 256.1 1.064e 11.37 25. 1.te6 0.1335 2'n.5 1.0068 11.00 30. 1.0 37 0.1097 241.4 0.9411 10.58 35

0. bet 0.089e 734.b 0.r636 10.04 40.

0.74u 0.07Gs 243.J 0.775/ 9.50 45. 0.494 0.3525 .05.4 0.b714 s.d ) 50. D.r$A 4.0377 110.7 0.566% 8.11 0.)11 0.024*. tu9.0 0.45b3 7.39 eO. 0.24m 0.0150 14%.h C.3563 6.71 oS. f'.1 ? ' O.00ns lle.4 0.i629 6.03 70. 0.07o 0.J041 %3.6 0.1=74 S.41 75. C.037 0.00th 72.0 0.12A1 e.80 Ha. v.wi% 0.0000 %e.0 0.0814 4.13 FS. 0.005 0.000s 19.4 0.d49% 3.46 90. 0.001 0.0000 25.3 0.C J%s 2.75 9%. 0.000 0.0030 ta.o 0.0117 2.19 100. 0.000 0.0300 7.7 0.0056 2.00 bELnt!TT P15M =0btL L!rtf!91 kLLTT43. C48003 Of*ti ?Mid LESRESTA i 1 I 6 l 5 I

l l I I l Table 11 Laustvotutts br t #L2 Af top tJPosuPL P6be fakt0UL Adir tuk

5. TP Pfh10o1 At 1.000 LIMI/TP Start PCT TLAb5 PL ATr> 6.L DAT! Lbh?

Trh LOST Abt DtATES Lust a fGA-e t h-it i FEt RAa-Fra Prf DFA1H i 0. 1.211 0.1b*1 1607.1 te.7e61 15.49 i S. 1.eti 0.20t e J0Jw.t 15.6101 14.06 10. 0.421 0.ht95 104.= e.=646 14.14 f 15. 0.1SJ 0.02* t 315.2 1.66Je 14.45 s 20. O. li s 0.0217 316. t' 1.te/J 14.19 15. 0.154 0.0/10 J17.4 1.6016 IJ.e? J0. 0.151 0.020e 31L.5 1.t 6 7 2 13.45 35.

0. 149 C. 019 4 217.5 1.4949 12.P7 40.

0.147 0.0100 317.2 1.4152 12.20 45. 0.1sb 0.0155 Jus.b 1.2#24 11.11 50. 0.117 0.012e irw.1 1.u' 9 7 10.0e $ *s. 0.10t C.C095 JS%.h 0.?257 t.t0 00. 0.0e7 C.60st 243.1 0.63J7 7.7h (5. U.U61 U.0042 110.4 U.3375 6.79 7b. 0.040 0.00.4 124.s 0.2434 S.9t 75. 0.011 U.Duti n.2 0.1111 S.27 E L. 0.010 0.000S co.3 C.137e 4.45 11 5. 0.004 0.0001 un.2 0.0615 1.LS 40. 0.001 9.0000 th.D 0.02B4 2.U2 95. 0.000 0.0000 15..* 0.0123 4..* C 100. 0.000 0.0000 7.7 0.03*,6 2.c0 m! LA 119 > 1 F F. F03tt L1ft11PE 6LAfrAU, C7hC&H 01Nin Ta&L LLUR)MIA Table 12 InlUT DATA AGL 4T LTAFf OF 1P?AblafjU9 s 0.0 AG At tep O' ikkAbtATIOR

  • 120.0 Dott >Atr. 42=/TR (O P.:nus.00 1 i t, 1000)=

1.000 PL AT! A 0 DUP A rlba, otMik T944 LLUtri!A 120.0 Op !Pt*T Suis 71 Y 09 LY IP e..? L* ss t e=9 1

  • L.0 kAb!AT109 Pts!3D. IP O SA>1 Alt s0 t l t (t) =

0.0 I r i A.s AG1 STA 6 7 STEP, !? O $0 1 LA5s 0.0 2F 2 OR PohL cht f*L6t!YE M!LK POptL 7.0 IF 1 0F MJht, 3J. D'J5 L S S I'EC ! P I L J = 9.0 input A990AL DOh5%: 1.3 1.3 J.C 4.0 S.0 6.0 7.0 0.0 9.0 SU.91 A F T R.750L*00 TEAFS t1Poh3D = AYP A934AL DOSE - 5.114L*C0 AVL L 1 P P.719 ? fobr. 4.373t*01 PLT *AD DEATFS 1.141L*01 1.76dteDO AV* Trakh LOST = PC1' TLARS LOST J.497t*00 2.7e2!,03 DE LTM5/R EG A > EM e DATS LOST /R!n 1.4 77 t + 01 = Thh LOST /DFATH 1.474E*01 12 m

y j i i i APPENDIX A 4 f USE OF BilR400 IN THE ANAlv515 U I Pfill!C4 FOR RutiMAntteG i a 4 leplicatines for Occupational (sposure ll @ The NEC and tre (PA were petittoried by the hational Resources Cefense Council (NROC)* to i reduce the occupational radiation esposure limits because theoretical risks f rom esposure at the present limits were considered by trie petitioner to be too high. BEIRM00 results were used I l { in evaluating this petition. l t Specifically, the petition requested that the dose limit be reduced by a factor of 10 for 1 workers between the ages of 18 and M.bere M is at least 45. For workers more than M 3 ears of age. the petitica asked that the limit be set so the rancer risk from esposure at the limit is i reduced by a fartor of 6 f rue the present value. The petition specified use of the relative risk model with a lifetime plateaJ for cancer other than leukeela. These conditions could t,e met in eeny ways, lee most 56aple approach would te to simply lower the limit to 3.5 rea/yr for all worters; this would require no analysis, but it would act take into accuunt the varia* tion in risk with age. Using EllRMCD, other limits meetir; the petitioner's conditions were calculated. f cr est ;:le, it would meet tt,e requirements to retain it.e prestat limit (5 regs/yr) and would permit occupational esposure only after age 54. The limit could be 0.5 ree/yr before age 49 and 1.5 reas/yr thereaf ter, etc. Other eaamples are presented in Table 1. Table ! OCCePAf!CNAL DOSE tl4115 PftTING Thf CCNDITICNS CF THE h20C F1111104 AGE M. A WJAL DOSE LIMIf, EfMS TIARS BliCRE M AfftR M 45 0 2.25 50 0 3.2 55 0 5.3 60 0 11.8 45 0.5

1. 3 50 05 1.6 0.5 2.3 60 0.5 4.9 e-40 FR 50321 13

I Figures I, 2. and 3 show how several characterizations of radiation risks vary with dose er.d with age at the time of exposure. Two of these quantities are peasures of the effective-6,,n.,,,.,nq ress of a given dose of radiatioi; these are " number of radiation deaths per 10

  • dtys of life lost g.er rian-ree." The other two quaetitles are meastres of the ef fects cn individuals; these are " percent of deaths caused by radiation" and " average number of years of lif e lost tse person. ' The principal corclusiens to t,e d* awn are that:

1. hducing individual doses will theoretically reduce tre elsk to the individual but will not reduce the total risk from a given dase. 2. Lelayinc tre start of esposure (such as from a;;e 18 to age 45) theoretically reduces the risk to the inJividual an1, to a lesser extent, reduces the total risa f rom a given dose. Relative N p itudes or Dadiation and other Risks The relative magnitudes of radiation risks and ctrer occupaticnal Palards determine the need f or and the potential benefit f ece reducing the esposure limits. The hEDC postulated that the maniene radiation hazaad (f tc,e esposure at the lielt) shoald not esceed the average risk of a fatal o*h accident. Ite NOC calculated the *adiation hazarJ with the most pessimistic of i The NEDC the BEIR :wdels anj concluded that tt.e done limit should be reduced ty a factor of 6. also recrwenced thet the lletts be to.ered by a f actor of 10 to reduce genetic risk; the staf f and most esperts in this field feel that geretic risk is a fucction of the total dase to tre population anij does r.ot constitute a v alie basis f or cnanqing the limits f or individual workers. F or esemple, the BEIR Report (page 3) Specifically states that *0ccupational and emergency fielts..should Le taseJ on those sections of the repnet relating to sceatic risk to tre indi- [CEP recomme'sdations' (page ll) so wetr,ht genetic risas that thef ere vidJal." also the new not a f actor in the occupational esposure limit. Anoteer consideration is that the proposed limit f or individ.,als could increase tctal occupational esposure and thereby lu.esing of the ir.c reat e genetic risms. The sosatic eist (camer), be.es er, is a Lasis f or establishing limits f or individuals. The National Cuantification cf other risks tnat nic.t be used for coepacison is dif ficutt. Saf ety Cou cil collects and publishes accicent data, In.t their data do r.nt include age-specific n accident or accideatal death rates. Thus comparisors between radiatio's Cancer risks and acci-a allatle data indicate an tverage a;ie of 43 f or people dent risks are dif ficult. However, killed in work accidents. The relative risk recel preoicts an average age at death of about 60 The a'usc-for people dying of cancer caused by occupational radiation esposure at the lielt. f lute model predicts fe.er cancer deaths but the deaths would occur at a somewhat younger age. I Both models predict n sas from the actual esposures received by radiation warners that are well below the actual average risk to all ucrkers of f atal on-tte-job accidents. I i f f atal work accidents are not directly comparable to radiation-induced cancer deaths for sev-For ena*ple, many acticents that shorten lif e as such as would a radiation-induced l eral reasons. I"Recomendations of the Inter *.atloal Cornission on Radiological Prctaction," ICRP 26, I Pergamon dress, Caford,1971. i l 14 I

1, 1 t i. l l l l l 6 I C DE ATHS/1C MAN-Rt M l .6 ,/ b / p / / / / / / / / ,e' 7' ~ 10 = / / / / j / DAYS LOSTIMAN-HE M p' 7 _____,/___.Z _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _A _._ ; / / / / f s' s +/,/ t*fi / i s / g+O f j q D / 01 S / 4 q j / ' / . t / / y W 4 / 4 / g. / g/ HELAT?VE FilSK MODEL WITH LIFETlYE PLATE AU f p / / ~ 0 01 -/ / ABSOLUTE ftlSK MODEL WITH 30-YEAR PLATE AU p / / / / / f O 01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 O NI ANNUAL DOSE, HEM CONSEQUENCES OF LIFETIME EXPOSURE TO RADfATIO*. FIGURE 1 15 O

  • ""6h***

+ e h es e==ww w,,,u%-.y..aw,,, 4, -w~- .w-

IM l 1 I I I l I ? i t I { DE ATHS/10' MAN-REM ^ i , " " ' * = = ~ 100

==% ( a i i i ~ 10 li OEATHSf

Rog,

~ - ~ ~ _ OtA y10 ~ 9475 %~%s Rt*3'YE Aq d % ~ ~N DAyg(OST;q % g%s ~~ 1 S g %,'~% -6 y N t N . P(4 %'s NSgOg %s s g,N N s \\ SOAg g% Ar$ s N \\ %g 4(4?sep s s g N 44 %'s \\ s 0.1 's \\ s N RE L ATIVE RISK MOOE L \\ WITH LtFETIME PL ATEAU g N ABSOLUTE RISK MODEL \\ WITH 30-Y E AR PLAT E AU \\ \\ \\ l i I i 1 \\ l ' O 10 20 30 40 50 60 AGE AT BEGINNING OF 1RRAOIATION CONSECUENCES OF R ADI ATION E XPOSURE FROM VARIOUS AGES TO AGE GS FIGURE 2 l 16 ^ ^ u

r if I ] 4 ) -l 4;j , i J 4 j 1' !i 14 } t )I i g l l l i 4 i ?i 8 DEATHS /10 MAN-REM i /' / N / .s ' / / / / 13 / / / y' / / r / / / / / / / l / ,/ / DAYS LOST / MAN-RE M f 1 a =y=- j.-..- 'w,%s' / / / / / / / / / / >c / /

  • Q [* /

/ / / 01 - // e/ p o*, ' $7 .p, ?/ / 9'/ Rf LATIVE RISK MOOC L WITH Lif ETIME PLATE AU Y }/ % / 9 / ,. / p ABSOLUTE RISK VODEL WITH 30-YE AR PLATEAU _ / g / V, / / / / / / / I / O 01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 O M1 ANNUAL DOSC, REM CONSEQUENCES OF E XPOSURE TO R ADIATION F HO'.E AGE 18 TO AGE ES FlcURE 3 11 r ,m_ ._ mj "- "^^ ^

t 8 i cancer are not considered fatal accidents. Work accidents cause 30 times as many disabling injuries as fatalities. Still, a comparison of fatal work accident rates with (theoretical) racf aticft c. exer risks may be of Sco* Interest. Accident rates usually are espressed in teres of accidents per year per 100.000 workers. Eascessed as 1.. tent cancer produced per 100.000 worters per year, the ef fects of radiation emptsure for a wer'tias lifetime are: 1. taposure at the limit 5 ress/yr: 51 to 120 (BEIR), 25 (ICRP). 2. Actsal average espossre. 0.4 ree/yr: 4 to 10 (EEIR), 2 (! RP). It+ "IC5.S* val.,es are obtained using the risk values in the new ICAP report.I For com-parison, the f atal accicent ra*.es in the majo indsstrial groups used by the National Safety Courcil range from 7 (in

  • trade") to 117 (in ' mining, quarrying"), with an werage of 17 for all irdustries.2 Fatal accident rates are su' h higher in certain occupatf or.s such as jet bomber pilot (300), steeplejar.k (500), fars machinery operator (800), and jet f *ghter pilot (2000).I Thas, under the present limits, latent cancer risks to radiation workers are lower that tre risk of fatal work accidents to the average worker. Even for the small fraction (W) of rectation workers who are e-sposed at the Ilmit, the latent cancer risks are comparable to tre average fatal accident risks to workers in major groups of fr.dustries; these maaimum radia-tion risks are well below it.e fatal accident risks in hig' Frisk occupations.

Cooperison of radiation elsks to tne risks froe other tonic substances is vir'ually impossi-ble. A host of subs tances have been identified as carcinogenic. These substances range f rom the cc=rortplace, such as sunt tg'it er.d wcod dust,13 dantic chemicah. late and risk data, hcwever, at e unavat lable. It,f d. " Accident f acts," hational Safety Council, Chicago,1974. 3. P. Willis, " Safety Criteria fer toclear Power in Space

  • Cadiation Protection Staadaedh C

Quo vadis, Pealth Physics Society, Richland, hashington,1912. 18 - ' - a LW A c. c <. .u

-,, w o n w

x _w w. n=

t '] I' I, I f \\ At 440!1 B i t MI.3X) LISTINS l i DO3 bLt FR tCIS105 D (170), *L (120), 90 ( ? ? 0), DD(1?O), 2'.

  • 9 t (120), bk (1 ?b), %C ( 120), S t ( t /01, DE(ItG), II (b),

9. A t (120),4L (170),40 (120),49 t (12 0), 9L (9), MO (H,tf (171), S.

    • Dtt, rTC, r1E, PfL, PR, OPT (110), BL3 (11), R O1 (13),

6. 7. DLa(12J), po s ( 1201, Do! rs, Axi,

  • 35 A ( 31), LPt, t s 1),r P f ( 11), 50P ( 31), 3 P L ( 31),

s. i 9 l

  • s f L( til, S AG (l'.)

r,4 T A D/ .0 21 c s,.0011,.000e5,.00Cne,.00058, to.

  • 00;oJ,.000%),

000m,.00011,.00027,.00026, 11.

  • 000?v,.00037,.000s,.00066,.000e5,.u010e, 12.
  • .t,01 19,.001t0,
00116, 001st,.031e7,.0015, 13.

j

  • 00150,.0014R,.0J14S.

00142,.001 e ?,.0014 e, to.

  • .0 01 ',u, 004',6,.nothe,.00171,.001ss,.00199, l ',.
  • 00715,.002J2, 0 07".2,

.0 027 e, 00297, 003?e, 16.

  • .otJS?,.bu)p),.00=15,.00650,.00eR9,.00579, 17
  • . 9 0',7,,.tonto,.00691,.0C744, 00810,.00982, 18.

.ou+6a,.ut0en,.u1142,.01141, 013 e9,.01466, 14 01%91,.u1776,.01879,.02020,.07192,.02377, 20.

  • .J?S6u,.0J761,.07991, 03256,.03553/

2', y PatA ML/u., 19., .5, 2., 25., .45, 2., 25., 22. t ?9 .J//,90/0., 10., .S. 15.,1/0.,.020, 15.,1/G., .002/,11/3., 7., 3., S., H., 10./, 24

  • DLE/3.Sb=,

3.*31, 7.404, 7.12), 1.617, 1.R56 2.145, 25.

  • 3.14 t, S.H17, 17.?t, 26.41, 4 p.* 6, 6P.73/,

26. mos/*.t*t, 3.3=7, 8.bn6, S.251, 7.2 t 7, 11.95, 20.5, 27

  • S7.19, 144.3, twJ.1, 7eo.4, 13*,1 141%./

/R. 29 C c P t* t P A9 4Pdtt ? tt!Uts PL (1) LToetS*A & PO(1) O Tw F' 10. 33. A 14 Siten tspOP9R! != 1 To J 12. L 1 TD lu L1tO5UNE 1 e 10 0 JJ. t A*TLR 10 Eft 043R* !. 7 "O 9 34 C L AT T97 r?%f ob 1 1, e AnD F 35. O PLAftAU DU9ATIOS X. ?, 5 AMD L 36 i C 49504L Rt*P./*Le 1, t A4D 9 47. C C 11 1 (1) L 304 (!). 8 473P A L LEUT.t* In 6 OTM14 RISK TALUF5 3H. 39 L YkC9 f tf r I ElR PEPO *Y 4 }. C 41. C P!AD 19PUT 42. C 011 (1): AGM 4 t 514*f OF 19240187109, 14 UT100- 0 C OP F (2) : AGE AT E93 JP IPPADintros L!rtT!*E-120 43. 44 C OP1 (J) Dose P4fr, RER/IP; IF C DO PULT!PLE RU45 1 0 DPT (4) : P L A T P P 'J Vf947!08,01MER Ty a g Lt17.t91A,LIFr !?J as. C OPT (5) : I F 40f LFSS T'i4 4 1, CELT OUTPUT i5 SU9 MART

  1. 5.

C UPI (h) : 1Rn4DIAT!Of Pt%!OD, IF 0 iWP ADI ATE TO OIT(2) e7. sh. C OPT il) : IhwAD STAk? AGE $7EP, IF 0 *O 1 CALE 49 C OPT (b): IF .G E. 7. USE PL?AT!T! Mf!K ROD!L 50. C o?' (9 ) : IP 1 09 RORf, eO. OF DOSES SPECIFIED 51. C 52. F t A D( 1,1) (O PT (!), != 1, S t. 1 roa mai t F 10.4 ) Se. u t 1 T P. (6,2 ) (OP T ( 11, 1* 1, 9) SS. 10 6 9 a OPT (4)

  • 9.

Sb. 1*(opt (9) .GE. 1.19 24D ( 1,1) (Of t (!),1 10,1094) 57. 2 POF M AT (//' 1903T DATA'/ Awt AT STA37 n' 199ADIATIO4 m', F6.1/ 58.

    • AGE At t4D OP 1PP ADI ATIO%

s*, P6.1/ 59

    • DOS E D A TP, Br*/ya (O RfA35.C01 TO 1C00) * ', F9.3/

60. 19 m f r y, & p q e p 3 4 y ;. m y Q, g _,y g g g y s q q Lw s _ a a wa. i. w. - w

p -. ....~.. .q.,.. -...,. - ~ c.. ~ pmm ~ l c PtL EA SE 2.C 9Als DATE = 7e22s 09/14/23

    • PLA TL AU DD217108, OTMFR THAM LErKESIA s*, P6.1/

61

    • O WT f 01

SUMMARY

ONLT If BOT LESS T?AR 1 **, F6.1/ 62. eo R&D141109 PEB10D, IF 0 R ADI AT P TO OPT (1) * *, Ph.1/ 63. es IgB RD 4GE STA RT STEP, !r O DO 1 CASE

    • , Fb.1/

64

    • 1r ? 01 MORE Ost SEL& TITE RISK RODEL se, F6.1/

65. es It i 03 MORE, 30. DOSES SPECIFIED s', F6.1) 66. IF (OP t tv) .GE. 1.) W41TE (6,3) (OPT (1),1 = 10,10P9) 67. 3 rosnaT (* 1ePo? ags0 AL DOSES:*f t6r10.11) 68. 69 c C PET P& POLLTE N ATCW AL DEATM R15%, D (1) 70. 71. C mz e la 70, 120 72. D(It a.oC 14 21* EIP (.002b t?* (1-31) ) 73. 4 IF(0(1) .*;T. 0. S) D (1) * .5 74 75. L C LELLC1 ELATEAU DOPAT101 16. 77. C 78. NO (5) t UPT (1) 79 HO (h)

  • OPT (4) 80.

L C Rb 15 gUnert OP AGES FOR ST AMTIRG 1RR&b1 ATION E1. 82. C U). A1-a.

  • f ( tv f (7). GT. 0.!Als (00T (2) - OP! (1)) /UPT (7) 84.

!?JoPTg7) .GT. 0.)Ala (luJ. - OPT (1)) / OPT (7) 85. Ir(41 .GT. 42341 4/ 86.

f. b. 11
  • 1 87.

bR. C C D ET t 9 P ! 3', A Wi" A t FI POSU H FS, EI (!) 89. SU".&Rf 9u. L F4: 14DE1 "O' DOSE-TAKilW4 9 C K5: 140E1 PO9 A CE-T AE f t tG SURR 491 91. 92. C KSa 0 93. 5 M16 O PT ( l)

  • 1.

94 K5s KS+ 1 95. IF (OP1 (b) .Gl. 0.) OPT (2) s OFT (1)

  • OPT (6) 46 97.

M?* O *T (2) 98. DOS ES

  • OPT ( 3)

IF(10P9.Gr. ~0)GO TO 9 99 I r (O? T ( t) .GT. 0.)CO TO 7 100. K4- 0 101. 102. Kom 0 6 SOS RO+ 1 103. 104. K1* KO - 4 EA 1 = 10.**K1 105 M t. S 10b. IP(FO orQ. 6)R3s 6 107 80 62 F2 1 K3 108. J 's = K4

  • 1 109.

DG S ILt ' It (K 2)

  • A51 110.

7 C04 TI E7F. 111. 112. SO 8 la 1,128 113.

t (1) s C.

1*(1 .17. ?1)GO to e 114 t?(I.GT. *2)CO 70 0 115 116. 41 (1)

  • D05tS 117.

8 i?O17130E IIR. 10 10 10 20

  • = - -

F a__ l L l Ii t t j t rL1:ASE 2.0 R&1l D&TE

  • 77274 09/14/23 119.

i 9 COSTinnt 120. i luP2* OPT (2) 121. Do 10 la 1, 121 122. Et t i) = 0 123. l 1F(1.LT. RI)C3 TO 10 124. IF(1 .GT. IOP 2) GO 10 10 125. Ra R1 e 1-1 i 126. Its !

  • 9 127 ER (R)
  • OPT (11) 128.

10 009T183E 129. 31 ( 1) = EI (1)

  • 75 130.

C

131, C

LIST 45pD&L 5tTORAL RISKS, DLE (1) & DOW (!) 132. C 113. t.0 11 Je), 7 134 Em (J - 1) *S + 1 135. La E

  • 4 136.

Do 11 I. R. L

137, DLt (1)
  • RLE (J)
  • 1.E-C$

138. 11 CottignE 139 C 140. De 12 Ja H. 12 141. R. (J - H)

  • 10 + 36 142.

La K + % 143. tMa 12 1* R, L 144 12 DLu (1) s P Lu (J )

  • 1.E-05 145.

C 14h. Do 13 la 86,120 147. 11 DLR(1)* NLS (13) *

1. E -O S 149.

C 149. DG 14 Js1. 7 140. K. (J - 1)

  • S
  • 1 151.

L= K

  • 4 152.

to 14 1* R, L 15 3.

  • 1.E-OS 14 Dos (1)
  • Ros (J) 154 C

155. Do 15 Ja 8, 12 156. R* (J - 0)

  • 10
  • 16 157.

L6 R +9 158. Do 15 != R, L 159

  • 1.E 05 15 DO5 (1)
  • DOE (J) 160.

C

161, DO tb la 66,120 162.
  • 1.E-05 no Dos (1)
  • uow (13) 163.

Ir (OPT (S) .LT. 1.) 164.

  • v 41T E th,17) ( 1 D L4 (1). Dos (1;, ! = 1, 800, S )

165. 17 FO R R & T l/* AG E, NAT LEOC RISK, S AT OTH ER C 315K',/ 166.

  • (14, 1P 2 E14. 3) )

167. C 168. C ZERO RISK LtRAfs 169. C 17J. ti 19 != 1, 120

  • 11.

RL (11 = 0. 172. IB 90 (1) = 0. 173. C 174 C 57 LECT RISK RODEL 175. C IP OPT (f) 15 2 OP MOtt USE RELLTITE RODEL 176. C II

O yyn-s. -~, 4 7 ~ -s e-r_

(

i 0 k, I I t RELEASE 2.0 Mais DATE = 77224 09/14/23 IP (OP T (8) .LT. 2.)CO TO 25 177. 178. C C CALCDLATE ARROAL LPUKEnla RISE, RL (1) 179. C COETRIBUTION OF It UTERG EXPOSUME 180. 181. C 182. La 1 + BL (2) Do 19 != 1 L 183. 19 RL(1)

  • DL 9 (1) *HL (3) *E1(1) 184 185.

C C ConTRIBUT108 OF 1 to 10 EXPOSOtt 186. 187. C DO 20 Ja 2, 11 ISS. g E= J + HL (4) -1 189. La K + HL (S) -1 190. IF(L .GT. 120)La 120 191. Do 20 1= R. L 192. 20 RL(1)

  • BL (1)
  • DLB (1) *1L(6, *El (J) 193.

194 C C CORTEObOT105 OF EXPOSUtt APTER AGE 14 195. l 196. I C Do 21 J= 12, 119 197. 1 198. R = J

  • RL (7)

IF(K.CT. 119)R= 119 199 La K + BL (M) - 1 200. IF(L .GT. 120)La 120 201. 202. Do 21 !=R, L ble (1)

  • 5 L (9)
  • Ef (J) 203.

21 RL(114 E L (1)

  • 204 C

C C ALCUL ATE AWWU AL RISK OP OTRER C&9CEP, 90(1) 205. 206. C C CORTRIBUTIOW OP 15 UTERO EIP053ME 207 208. C 209. La 1

  • ML (2)

Do 22 != 1 L 210. 211. 22 70(1) = rou(1) *M0(3) *El(1) 212. C C CD4TRIEUT105 OP 1 TO 10 EXPOSUME 213. 214 C 215. DO 23 J. 2, 11 5=J + N 0 (4) - 1 216. S 217. La K

  • HO L ) - 1 Ir(L.ut. 120)La 120 218.

219. Do 23 1= R, t 220. DOE (1) *30 (6)

  • El (J) 23 80(1) = RO(1) 221.

C C COSTBDb37103 CF EXPOSURP AFTER AGE 10 222. 223. C Do 24 J= 12, 119 224. 225. na J + P0 (7) - 1 226. 1F(K.GT. 114)K=,119 227. La K + n0 88) - 1 Iri'. .GT. 120)L= 12C 228. 224 To 24 != K, L 9 230. D0t (1) *!O L ) *Et(J) 24 BrJ (1)

  • R0 (1)
  • 231.

25 COET150E 232. C C IF RELATITE RISK NAS USED, SKIP ABSOLUTE RISK CALC 233. 234 C 22

J w---, r a me s p~,h: [] v ev mm y-w ~ - - ~ - e s.,- N' __F [ g " ~- ~1. ,.1 ,?w U -P {r..[r~. eo 1 W j u.,, p;p. 4 ~ A t a 34LE435 2.0 M414 DATE = 77224 C9/1s/23 J P (Urt f el .GE. 2.)GO TO 37 235. C 236. C J54s4E 70 A990 LUTE RODEL PAP ARETER W ALUES 237. c 238. EL (33 = 25.E-6 239 EL (6i s 2.0E-6 240. ML (9) = 1.0E-t 241. MO(3)= 25.E-6 242. 80 ( 6)

  • 1.bt-6 243.

93{9)= S.0E-6 244 C 245. C CALCDLATE ArWUAL LEUREM1 A P15%, RL (!) 24 6. 297. C Do 26 1s1, 120 2e n. 26 RL(1) O 249. J ?= HL (1) + 1 250. J26 M L (1) + M L ( 2) 2St. Do 27 JmJ), J2 252. } 27 RL (J) = EI (1)

  • RL (1) 2St.

I Do 29 la 2, 11 254 i J36 1 - 1 + 1L(4) ?SS. J4* 13 + HL (S) -1. 256. Do 28 Ja J3, J4 257. EI (!)

  • UL (6) 25H.

28 RL (J)

  • WL (J)
  • 29 Cou?INUE JS9.

11= 12u - 9 L ( 7) 260. Do 31 != 11, 11 261. JSa 1 - 1 + H L(7) 2h?. J6= JS

  • HL (9) - 1.

263. IF(J6 .GT. 120)Jh* 120 264 DO 30 J JS, JS 265. 30 RL lJ)

  • R L (J)
  • Et (!) e M L (9) 266.

J1 COETIBUE 267. C 26 8. C CALCULAT* ANNUAL WITE OF OTHER CATCEP, P0 (I) 209 C 270. Do 32 != 1, 120 271. 32 ao(I) = 0. 272. J1= H0(1) + 1. 273. J2= 50 (2)

  • M 0 ( 1) 274 Do 33 Ja J1, J2 275.

33 RO (J)

  • E1 (1)
  • Ro(3) 276.

Do 3S != 2,11 277. J3*1 - 1

  • 50(4) 278.

J4n J3

  • HO(S) - 1.

279 IF(J4 .GT. 12 0) J 4 = 120 280. Do 34 J= J3, J4 281. 34 Ro(J)

  • RO (J)
  • EI (!)
  • H0 (6) 282.

35 C037150E 2P3. 11= 120 - R0(7) 284 DO 37 l= 12, 11 2P5. JSm 1 - 1

  • B O (7) 286.

J6= J S

  • RO(9) - 1.

2R7. Ir(Jb.GT. 120)Jb= 120 288. 10 36 Ja JS, J6 289 36 R0 (J)

  • 20(J)
  • LI (!)
  • RO(9) 290.

37 CJuTIBDE 291. C 292. 23

~~ ~~ - ~ j u: i

  1. 4LEtSE 2.0 2415 DATE = 17232 1J/43/57 C

EORMLLIEE IF CALCULLTED RISKS EICELD 1. 293. 294. C 295. 30 38 1= 1, 120 296. As R L (1)

  • RO (1)
  • O (1) 297.

IP ( A .LE. 1.)GO TO 38 298. D (1) ) / (N L (1)

  • B0 (1 ) )

b= (1. 299. 10 (1) = RO (1)

  • t 300.

SL (1) = B L (1)

  • B 301.

38 CosTimut 302. C C CALCht&T E kADIOLOGICAL, RT, AED TOTAL, DD, risks 303. 304. C 305. Do 39 != 1, 120 Joe. S T (1) a s L (1)

  • R 3 (1)

JC3. 34 DD (1) =Pt (1)

  • D (1) 308.

L' 309. C WRITE RESULTS 310. C 311. IF(3>T(5). LT. 1.) 312.

  • WRITE (b e0) 313.

40 ruRatf(Int.211,*Ausont sistse/ 314

    • AGE L EU K En 1 & *,71,8 0T d LE *,5 3,
  • p 1TU LA L *,71,
  • tut A L */)

315. DO 41 1=l 120 316. Al= FLOAT (1)/S. - PLO AT ( 1/S) 317. 1P (1 .GT. 1.AsD. 11 .GT. 0)GO TO 41 318. 1* (OPT (5) .LT. 1.3 319.

  • W R IT h (6. 4 4) 1, R L (1), 90 (1), D (1), DD(1) 320.

41 C0ttinut 321. e 2 F0 kM AT ( t e,1P *E 12.2)

322, C

C CALCULATE 50Rf190R51 EIPOSED SE ASD CO5TROLS SC 323. C CALC 41MUAL DEATRS; S ATUk &L 9, LEU K EM14 L, OTHEk O 324 C CALC RADIATION DEATMS; & bub &L DE ABD TOTAL DET 325. 326 C 327. SC(1)=1000. 328. S E (1) = 100 0. 329 AW (1) = 1000.

  • D (1) 330 A L (1) = 1000.
  • SL(1) 331.
  • o (1) = 1000.
  • 60(1) 332.

A B E (1) = 1000.

  • D (1) 333.
  • 10(1)

DE (1) = A L (1) 334. DET= De tt) 335. DR (1) = 0. JJ6. I Do 43 182,120 337. E. 1-1 338. SC (1) = SC (K) - 18 tK) 339. AB (1) = SC (1)

  • D (1)

J40. SE(1)* SE (K) - AL (K) -10 (B ) - AS E (K) 341. AL (1) = SE (1)

  • M L (1) 342.

i

  • to tt)

Ao(1)= Sell) 343. j ag E (1) = SE (1)

  • D(1) 344 DE (1) = A L (1)
  • 10(1) 345.

DET= DET

  • pt(1) 346.

C 347. C CALC Digf EREN CE IS EURb!R OF SURTITOES, D E (1) l 34a. i C 349 '4 3 DR (1) = SC (1) - SE (1) 350 C 24

s 4 ..g,, ,s ss 1 g m 09/14/23 ? RELt&st 2.0 R115 DATE = 77224 351. C WRITE RESELTS - s 35?. C IF(OFT (5) .LT. 1.) 353. s een1TE th,4 4) 354 44 FotRAT(1S1,t1E, 'Sepf!TAL*, 121, *R&DitT10s*/ 355.

  • AGE COET30L5 EIFOSED DI FF ER ES CE DE ATR $'/)

356. DO 45 !=1,120 357. &la FLO AT (I) /S. - FLO AT (1/5) ')S3. 15 9. IF( .CT. 1.450. 11.GT. 0)GO TO 45 IF (OFT (5). LT. 1.) 340.

  • ea11E (6.4 631, SC(1), SE tt), Di(1), De (1)
161, 362.

45 cost 1 sue R6 ross&T(15,13,1 F4 E 11. 3), 363. 364 C C CALC TOTEL DIFFERE8CE 13 FE350s f Ents, DRT 365. 366. C 367. TO T *0 \\ t 368. DO a7 3 1.120 369. 47 DRT* Dt?

  • DR (1)

IF (OFT (5) .LT. 1.) 370. 37f. e st1TE (6.4 8) D#7, DET 48 FORR&T(15,19 E, ' TOT A L * *,1F2 E11. 3) 372. IF(OFT (5) .LT. 1.) 373. 174

  • W F I TE (6,
  • 7, 49 FO R R A T (131, *4 as an t DEif as*/191,
  • gt ros E0 8,20 s, 'COBT BOLS */

375. o

  • AGE L EUR ER14 OTTER ELTURkt 70t&L*)

376. C 377. C Ut!TE 1950&L DEAT35 FROM LEUTER1h, OTCES, ETC 37h. 379. C 380. Do 50 !=1,120 s 11= F Lo&T (1)/5. - FLO&T (1/S) 381. IF(I .CT. 1.41 0. 41.CT. 0)GO TO 50 382. 10(1)

  • 7 9 E (1) 383.

ET= A L (1)

  • 384 IF (OPT (5)

.LT. 1.)

  • WRITE (b 51)

I, LL (1), 10 (I), A R E (1), FT, 42(1) 385. 386. 50 0017150E \\ 387. 51 FORMAT (14,5F10.3) 388. C 389. C CALC AED kBITE TOTALS FFOR LEOREH14, ET C 390. C 39 1. ELT = 0 EDT40 392. 391. EET=0 394. ETT=0 CET.0 395. 196. DO 52 1=1,120 397. ELT= PLT

  • AL [I)

EDT* ECT

  • 10 (1) 199.'

19. Au t(1) ENT* EWT

  • R0 (I)
  • Et E (1) 400.

ETT = ET'

  • EL (1)
  • 401.

52 CET= cs?

  • As (1)

IF(OFT (5) .LT. 1.) 402. 53 Fot R&T t/* TDT AL 5', F7.3, 4F10.3) .403.

  • 8 KITE (b,S M ELT, rot, EET, ETT, CET 404 405.

C C CALC AED WR1?E AB10&L, FB. 44D TOTAL, FD' DE&TMS FPon 40h. C OTRE1 C&WCERI 39 EAST S,LUSG L. GI G, P0FE BO,0TRER o 407.

408, C

25

,t 1 i<* 'b I e A trLEASE 2.0 Matt DATE = 77224 09/14/23 3 r (OPT (S) .LT. 1.) 409.

  • u p1T" (6,5 4) 410.

S4 FOR M A T (111, 1 71, 'R ADI ATIO4-15DUCf D C&WCE9 DELT548/ 411.

  • AGT LEUREMIA BSEAST LOOG GI*,

412. 605E OTHE98) 413. DO SS != 1,120 414 &!

  • F LO AT (1) /S. - FLO AT (1/S) 415.

!?( 1. GT. 1.A3L. AI .G1. 0)CO TO SS 41m. FBt. 3

  • AO (I) 417.

rL a.26* A0 (t ) 416. FGa.2

  • Aott) 419.

Peo. 04* A0 (!) 420. F0a.2* A0 (1) 421. IF(Ort (S) .LT. 1.) 422.

  • WPITE (6,SL)

I, AL (!), FF, ?L, FG, FBo, PO 423. SS COE18 30E 424. 56 FOP R A T (14,bF 10. S) 42$. Pht* 1

  • EDT 426.

FtT *.268 Fu? 427. fat *. 2

  • L OT 428.

FBOT=.04* EDT 429. FOT * .2

  • F0F 410.

I F (LPT (S). LT. 1.) 431.

  • v t ! ? F ( A,5 7) F LT, PhT, FLT, FGT, FFOT, FDT 432.

57 Fot P A T (* TO'AL*, F7. 3,

  • ,F 10,5) 433.

C 434 C CALC & WilfE Ft9'.04-TEAMS, PT, OF COgT90L5 C, AfD EIPOSFD Eg 435. C LOST L, A f rR AGE 4, IER109-9E" PB, PFRSOE LA15 LOST /PFR PDL5 436. C DEAT H/R EM tRT, TOTAL LEP050RE FOSSILLE EIT, f45 EXPOSUR E T R5 437 C Air As s D A L DOSF F IA, PCT P A D DE ATMS PDET, AVE DOSE PRA, ETC 438. C 439 PTC* O 440. Pfta 0 441. Do SS Im1, 120 442. PTC* PTC

  • SC(!)

443. 58 PTEa PTE

  • SE ll) 444 PVC - PTE 445 PFL C

OPT (4): PLATEAU D7BATIO4 DTHER TM A N LEOKERIA,LIFEs 120 446. PILA = PT L /100 0. 447. Pe. S E(1)

  • EI ( 1) 448.

b3 59 1* 1,120 449 Ja !

  • 1 450.

59 PRa PR

  • FI(J)
  • SE (1) 451.

PDLS= (PT L / PR)

  • 36%.25 452.

E45= PLT

  • EUF) /PR 453.

EIT. 0 454. 195 0 455. 1 F ( FI (1) .GT. 0)EIT* EI (1) 456. IF (LT (1) .GT. 0) fps *.75 457 DO 60 ! = 2, 121 458. IP(EI(!) .LE. 01C0 TO 60 459. EIT* EIT

  • EI (!)

460. 195* T45 + 1. 461. 60 Cutt! sue 462. EIA= EIT/IPS 463. PDET* DET * .1 464 PrA= Pd/1000. 465. PPfLa 100.

  • PTL/PTC 466.

26

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DP8P=.(01T/95)

  • ,.1. 36' p

] C W5178 SIBGLB-CASE SWNR&RT ' E )d % TLPD* Pf t/DET 4 '- f C .v. - s . U 'J)' e" l 469 ~ " M ' S< ' 4 470. ,,1 f'471. tj ' ,i-i c , R ';, + I IP (OP T (31".er. 0... 450. OPT (7) .Lt. 0.) 'A

<! ' 472.
s

.] - " '473. ' ' < ' O.

  • s e t tr (4,61) 1 RS, t14, Pt a, PD ET,PY L A. P PTL.D PR P, POLS,TLPD N'-

J - t, '1,t 4,. ]D 61 Ponsaf(/* sesRaets - /* resas strosr0

==,1Pz12.3/ N ! T;474.;

    • 4tz aussat u0sr

=*,t12.3/* Att LIFETIRE D03t=',t12.3/ G,475. . u 476

    • PCT tad DEstas

=*,s12.3/* att stans Los? .=*,s12.3/ ' ~ 477./ ei y

    • PCT stans Los?'

=*,212.3/* te&Tss/ REG & san =*,s12.3/-

i:

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    • D&f s LesT/sta me,312.3/* tas LOST /Drafn. = *,312. 3) -

47e. ~ c"; '.p 3 479.. ~ 'g c 3' '+ 480. f;, q C CtaLLECT D ATA PUB DOSI-T ARTIBG 5988837 f481. C v d ~ 482.- S EE fl e)

  • 23 4 403.

Q !PD(84)= PDRT

  • s 404 SPT (E G) = Pf ta.

SD P (E 4) = DF RP 485. s SPL (E el m PDL5 486. 487. y Sf L (t e) = TLPD 62 C0071893 488. j C ~ 489. C Re-DO CALC W17W Etf DOSE Raft IF APP 30PRIATE 490. 1 C 491. 3 IF(I3.LT. 6.4 8D. OPT (3) .Lt. 0.)CO TO 6 492. C a93. ,l f C orffs post-TanTItu SURRatt 494. a C 49%. 4 IF (OP T (3) .20. 0.) WRITE (6,6 3) OPT (1), OPT (2), 496.

  • (52 3 (I), SPD(I), SPT (I), SD P (t), SPL (!), ST L (1', != 1,31) 497.

63 PORRAT(M1,13I,' COR5EQOrWCES OF R ADI ATIO9 EE'JOtt*/ 898. e 1s t,

  • PROM AGE *, F6.1,
  • TO AGE *,F6.1//

499.

    • Dost RATE PCT DERTRS 195 LOST DEATRS PER DafS *,

500.

    • LOST TRS LOST */31I,* REC &-R13-RER PER RAE-RER PER *,

501. e'Deats *// ( 2710.3, F10.4, F12.1, r12.4, F10.7)) 502. Ir toPT(3).t0

0...a sD. OPT (8)

.Gr. 2.)sstTs(6,64)

$03.

64 ro n 51T (

  • RFL4TIVE BISE NODEL*)

$04. I F (0PT (1) .t0. O. 45D. OPT (8) .LT. 2.) WRITE (6,65) S0S. 6S FOB R&T (* 8850 LUTE RISE RODEL*) 506. I F (OPT ( 3).to. O..nso. OPT (4) .GE. 120.) st!TE (6,66) 507. 66 FORF LIFETINE PL&TE AB, C&WCES OTSES TR&W LECR ES !t') 508. 1r1 .30 0..ast'. OPT (4) .LT. 120.) ut tT R (6,673 0PT (4) 509. 67 Fon .1,* !249 PL ATE 40, CAECER OTHER 7515 Ltsttnia') 510. C 511. C COLLECT S150LTS FOR AGE-T&BTIBC SORR&Bf S12. C 513. 4 IF (OPT (7) .LE. 0.)co 70 68 514. 5ac (1S) = OPT (1) 515. 4 SPD(ES)= PDt? $16. SFT (E S) = PT L4 S17. 5DP (E S) = DPRP $18. SPL (t S) = PDL5 S19. STL (t St = TLPD S20. 68 CUSTIBUt $21. C 522. C 18C12 85E RGB AT ST ART OF IBR ADISTION S23. 9; C 524. g' i I I i 27 4 1 w w.,

  • se.. w w

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....~ a. r }. ' 4 ~v s t o 'o n s .h BB& BASE 2.0 Rats D&TE = 77224 09/14/23 r ;re i OPT (1) ' O PT (1) + OPT (7) $25.

g-IF (OP T (3).GT O.

89D. OPT (7) .Lt. 0.) S26.

  • SSITE *b,6 910PT (1)

S27. ) 6'8 F04 54. (//' AGE AT ST&PT OF ISB&DI ATIO5e ' F7.1) 526. q: C 529. C st-DO Cate s!?s sEs stavT-R&D act $10. C v31. '1F(OPT [1) .CT. OPT (2) .09. OPT (7).12. 0.)GO 70 10 S32. ,; ' i 3F(OPT (1) .LS. 100. 45D. OPT (3).CT. 0.)GO TO S 533. 53e. - J,. 9.. ,70 Cost 1sut - #' 4 $1%. C y -T1" C 3 RITE AGE-9897IBG 399A&RT IF SPPROPP!nTE $36. f- _.C CCW3?A9! STOP-FBBADISTIOC 4CR 537. m9, P' C SJg. ~* f,,'1 IF (OPT (7) .Lt. 0.)CO to 73 _, $3*. IF (DFT (6) .Lt. 0.) 540.

, ' s
  • WBITE (6,71) 0PT ( ?), OPT ()),

541.

  • (5 4G t!),$PD (!),$ PT (!), $D9 (I), SPL (f), Sf L(f), I.

1, R6) 542. i" 71 PO4R&T(111,133,' C095tostects OF R&DI ATIO1 EIPOSOPE'/ Se ).

  • 91,'F30s 943104S ACES To e,rg,g,e 37 e,rg,3,e 9Fns/It'//

Set.

  • S TA RT PCT ftA35 DEATHS PER DifS LO57
  • 45.

oo IRS LOST'/

  • ACE DEATES LOST *,

546. e 22,'grca.gigg-stR Fen n43-323 pte Drat 3'// S47.

  • (PS.0, r10.3, F 10.4, F12.1, F11 4, F10.2))

$48 'C

  • >4 9 C

&RtADIATICS Pt9100 Cosstaff $50. C $51. IF (OP T (6).CT. 0.) SS2. ess;it (b,72} 0PT (6), OPT (3), $53. ($ LC (I), SPL (!),5&T (I),5DP (I),.PL (!), StL (I), I. 1, R6) 5S4 72 POB R AT(151,13 3, ' CUBSE0WEBCES OF S &DI ATIce Et P050pt s/

    • S S.
  • ' FSOR TARIOOS AGts F0m',FS.0,' ft PERIODS AT 8,

556.

  • FS.3, ' RtRS/TR'//

SS 7 e' Stap? PCT ft195 DEAT9?S PfR DAYS LOST '258. s' TBS LOST'/ ' AGE DEATR5 L0$7', 559.

  • 2 2,' R EG A-4t & B -M EM PER R&B-RIM PER Dr&Tn*//

SOO.

  • (PS.0, F10.3, F10.4, F12.1, F12.e. F10.7))

561. IF(OPT (0) .GE. 2.) W 81TE (6,6 4) $62. > 1F(OPT (8) .LT. 2.) W RITE (6,65) $64 ~ IF (OP T (t) .GE. 120.) W R I T E (6,6 6) Ste. IF (OPT (4).LT. 120.) 3 BITE (6,673 0FT (e) $65. ~; 73 CDsTIWUE $66. Stor 567. RED S68. r l 28 l h ae aseww.dawbeiws.wm d ~ ~ ~ a \\ St'-p D' r}}

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