ML20041D242

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Board Notification 82-09:forwarding New Info & Relevant Matl to Safety Issues Applicable to All Dockets W/Mark II Containment
ML20041D242
Person / Time
Site: Susquehanna, 05000000, Zimmer, Shoreham
Issue date: 02/16/1982
From: Tedesco R
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:
Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
Shared Package
ML19291F920 List:
References
TASK-AS, TASK-BN-82-09, TASK-BN-82-9 BN--82-09, BN-82-9, NUDOCS 8203040617
Download: ML20041D242 (7)


Text

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kj MEMORANDUM FOR: The Atomic Safety & Licensing Boards for: Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, Unit 1 ky $/ Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Units 1 Willian 11. Itmer Nuclear Power Station, Unit l' Qggi \\ > FROM: Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing

SUBJECT:

BOMD NOTIFICATION - CHUGGING LOAD SPECIFICATIONS FOR MARK II CONTAINMENTS (Roard Notification 82-09) In accordance with present NRC procedures regarding Board notifications, the enclosed information is being provided for your information as constituting new information relevant and material to safety issues. This infomation is genet c and has applicability to all dockets with i Mark II containments. Original signed by @rt L Tedesco Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing Attachments: 1 - DSI/NRR memo dated 1/20/82 2 - CSB/DSI/NRR memo dated 1/20/82 3 - Prof. George Bienkowski (NRC Consultant) Report (Undated) cc: See next page 8203040617 820216 PDR ADOCK 05000322 A PDR b A f.f.S.f.2,/,P,M,,, ,DL,:,(B,,(h,ff,, DL,:( , D(,: L. C DL,.,, L,,,,,, omcc> sun==e > .1.b.on.;.kw....RR,e,tc{,,,,,,,,,,,JRe,1, g , 4, AS,c.,e,,c,er,,,, rte, ,co,,,, .tl...t./.a2,....,,.. 2.ud82,,,,.2ta. 2,.,,,, 2./,g.za2,.,,, 2psa.a...,,, om> Nac ronu 2:a no-ao) sncu ouo OFFICIAL RECORD COPY usom mi-mua

.y. B ard Notification 82-09 FEB 161982. " Chugging Load Specifications BOARD NOTIFICATION DISTRIBUTION: for Mark II Containments" %[Jjoocket F11e:504322/50-387/388/50-358 t LB#2 File TERA NSIC NRC PDR L PDR [ ACRS (16) D. Eisenhut' R. Purple l S. Varga D.-Vatsallo R. Clark J. Stolz R. Tedesco B.J. Youngblood A. Schwencer F. Miraglia J.R. Miller E. Adensam D. Crut'chfield W. Russell T. Ippolito R.H. Vollmer H. Thompson R. Mattson S. Hanauer B. Snyder R. Hartfield, MPA OEtD OI&E (3) H. Denton E. Case PPAS M. Williams _ Project Manager E. Hylton bec: W.J. Dircks. V. Stello E. Christenbury H. Shapar

  • J. Wilson /R. Gilbert - Shoreham R. Perch --Susquehanna

.I. Peltier - Zimmer

,!'k pM*niq%, UNITE'D STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION g g WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 5

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/ FEB 161982 e-9,,,,, Docket Nos. 50-387/388 50-322 50-358 MEMORANDUM FOR: The Atomic Safety & Licensing Boards for: Shoreham Nuclear Power Station, Unit 1 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, Units 1 & 2 William H. Zimmer Nuclear Power Station, Unit 1 FROM: Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing

SUBJECT:

BOARD NOTIFICATION - CHUGGING LOAD SPECIFICATIONS FOR MARK II CONTAINMENTS (Board Notification 82- 09 ) In accordance'with present NRC procedures regarding Board notifications, the enclosed information is being provided for your information as constituting new information relevant and material to safety issues. This information is generic and has applicability to all dockets with Mark II containments. Robert L. Tedesco Assistant Director for Licensing Division of Licensing l l Attachments: 1 - DSI/NRR memo dated 1/20/82 2 - CSB/DSI/NRR memo dated 1/20/82 3 - Prof. George Bienkowski (NRC Consultant) Report (Undated) cc: See next page i

s v DISTRIBUTION OF BOARD NOTIFICATION p-Shoreham ACRS Members MHB Technical Associates Dr. Robert C. Axtmann Edward M. Barrett, Esq. Mr. Myer Bender Ezra I. Bialik, Esq. Dr. Max W. Carbon Howard L. Blau Esq. Mr. Jesse C. Ebersole Joel Blau, Esq. Mr. Harold Etherington Dr. James L. Carpenter Dr. William Kerr Lawrence Brenner, Esq. Dr. Harold W. Lewis Hon. Peter Cohalan Dr. J. Carson Mark Jeffrey C. Cohen, Esq. Mr. William M. Mathis David H. Gilmartin, Esq. Dr. Dade W. Moeller Marc W. Coldsmith Dr. David Okrent Stephen B. Latham, Esq. Dr. Milton S. Plesset Mr. Brian McCaffrey Mr. Jeremiah J. Ray W. Taylor Reveley, III, Esq. Dr. Paul G. Shewmon Ralph Shapiro, Esq. Dr. Chester P. Siess Dr. Emmeth A. Luebke Mr. David A. Ward Mr. Jeff Smith Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel Susquehanna Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Gerald R. Schultz, Esq. Board Panel Robert W. Adler, Esq. Docketing and Service Section Bri ght Mr. Glenn 0; Buck Dr. John H. Robert M. Gallo Mr. Thomas M. Gerusky James P. Gleason Mr. Thomas J. Halligan f Dr. Judith H. Johnsrud Ms. Colleen Marsh Mr. Thomas S. Moore Dr. Paul W. Purdom Jay Silberg, Esq. Mr..DeWitt C. Smith Bryan A. Snapp, Esq. Zimmer (cont' d.) Zimmer Dale D. Brodkey Timothy S. Hogan, Jr. Troy B. Conner, Jr., Esq. Dr. Frank F. Hooper Andrew B. Dennison, Esq. M. Stanley Livingston Michael C. Farrar, Esq. David K. Martin, Esq. James H. Feldman, Jr., Esq. William J. Moran, Esq. Lawrence R. Fisse, Esq. George E. Pattison, Esq. Mr. John H. Frye III Mr. Samuel H. Porter W. Peter Heile, Esq. Dr. Lawrence R. Quarles Richard S. Salzman, Esq. John D. Woliver, Esq. Mrs. Debora. Webb, Esq. h

y Mr. - M. S. Pollock Vice President - Nuclear Long Island Lighting Company 175 East Old Country Road F-Hicksville', New York 11801 = cc: Howard L. Blau, Esquire MHB Technical Associates Blau and Cohn, PC. 1723 Hamilton Avenue, Suite K 217 Newbridge Road San Jose, California 95125 Hicksville, New York 11801 Stephen Latham, Esquire I Jeffrey Cohen,' Esquire Twomey, Latham & Schmitt Deputy Commissioner and Counsel Post Office Box 398 New York State Energy Office 33 West Second Street Agency Building 2 Riverhead, New York 11901 4 Empire State Plaza Albany, New York 12223 Joel Blau, Esquire New York Public Service Commission Energy Research Group, Inc. The Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller Bldg. 400-1 Totten Pond Road Empire State Plaza Waltham, Massachusetts 02154 Albany, New York 12223 Jeff Smith Ezra I. Bialik, Esquire Shoreham Nuclear Power Station Assistant Attorney General Post Office Box 618 Environmental Protection Bureau Wading River, New York 1179E New York State Department of Law 2 World Trade Center ^ W. Taylor Reveley, III, Esquire -New York, New Yorn 10047 Hunton & Williams Post Office Box 1535 Resident Inspector Richmond, Virginia 2321$. Shoreham NPS, U.S.N.R.C. l Post Office Box B Rocky Poin't, New York 11778 Ca r& hpir 9 East 40th Street New York, New York 10Q16 Mr. Brian McCaffrey LQng Island Lighting Company 250 Old Country Road Mineola, New. York 11501 Honorable Peter Cohalan Suffolk County Executive County Executive / Legislative Building Veteran's Memorial Highway Hauppauge, New York 11788 David Gilmartin, Esquire Suffolk County Attorney County Executive / Legislative Building Veteran's Memorial Highway Hauppauge, New York 11788 ? ~

Mr. Norman W. Curtis Vice President Engineering and Construction Pennsylvania Power & Light Company Allentown, Pennsylvania 18101 ccs: Jay Silberg, Esquire Ms. Colleen Marsh Shaw, Pittman, Potts & Trowbridge P. O. Box 538A, RD #4 1800 M Street, N. W. Mountain Top, Pennsylvania 18707 Washington, D. C. 20036 Mr. Thomas J. Halligan Edward M. Nagel, Esquire Correspondent General Counsel and Secretary The Citizens Against Nuclear Dangers Pennsylvania Power & Light Company P. O. Box 5 2 North Ninth Street Scranton, Pennsylvania 18501 Allentown, Pennsylvania 18101 Mr. J. W. Millard Mr. William E. Barberich Project Manager Nuclear Licensing Group Supervisor Mail Code 395 Pennsylvania Power & Light Company General Electric Company 2 North Ninth Street 175 Curtner Avenue Allentown, Pennsylvania 18101 San Jose, California 95125 Mr. G. Rhodes Robert W. Adler, Esquire Resident Inspector Office of Attorney General P. O. Box 52 505 Executive House Shickshinny, Pennsylvania 18655 P. O. Box 2357 l Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17120 l Gerald R. Schultz, Esquire Susquehanna Environmental Advocates l P. O. Box 1560 l Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania 18703 Mr. E. B. Poser Project Engineer Bechtel Power Corporation P. O. Box 3965 San Francisco, California 94119 Dr. Judith H. Johnsrud Co-Director Environmental-Coalition on Nuclear Power 433 Orlando Avenue State College, Pennsylvania 16801 Mr. Thomas M. Gerusky, Director Bureau of Radiation Protection Resources Commonwealth of Pennsylvania P. O. Box 2063 Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17120 i-r

m = i Mr. Earl A. Borgmann Senior Vice President Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company Post Office Box 960 P Cincinnati, Ohio 45201 Deborah Faber Webb cc: Troy B. Conner, Jr., Esq. 7967 Alexandria Pike Conner, Moore & Corber Alexandria, Kentucky 41001 1747 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W. Washington, D. C. 20006 Andrew B. Dennison, Esq. 200 Main Street Mr. William J. Moran Batavia, Ohio 45103 i General Counsel Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company George E. Pattison, Esq. Post Office Box 960 Clermont County Prosecuting Attorney Cincinnati, Ohio 45201 462 Main Street Batavia, Ohio 45103 Mr. Samuel H. Porter Porter, Wright, Morris & Arthur Mr. Waldman Christianson 37 West Broad Street Resident Inspector /Zimmer f Columbus, Ohio 43215 RFD 1, Post Office Box 2021 U. S. Route 52 Mr. James D. Flynn, Manager Moscow, Ohio 45153 Licensing Environmental Affairs Cincinnati Gas & Electric Company Mr. John Youkilis Post Office Box 960 Office of the Honorable William Cincinnati, Ohio' 45201 ' Gradison United States House of Representatives David Martin, Esq. Office of the Attorney General Washington, D. C. 20515 209 St. Clair Street Timothy S. Hogan, Jr., Chairman First Floor Board of Commissioners Frankfort, Kentucky 40601 50 Market Street, Clermont County James H. Feldman, Jr., Esq. Batavia, Ohio 45103 216 East 9th Street Cincinnati, Ohio 45220 Lawrence R. Fisse, Esq. Assistant Prosecuting Attorney 462. Main Street W. Peter Heile, Esq. Batavia, Ohio 45103 Assistant City Solicitor Room 214, City Hall Mr. James G. Keepler Cincinnati, Ohio 45220 U. S. NRC, Region III 799 Roosevelt Road John D. Woliver, Esq. Glen Ellyn, Illinois 60137 Legal Aid Security Post Office Box #47 550 Kilgore Street Batavia, Ohio 45103 l ~ 9 i o 1

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UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION [, p, WASHINGTON D. C. 20555 g >j gAN 2 01982 MEMORANDUM FOR: R. Tedesco, Assistant Director for Licensi.ng, DL FROM: T. Speis, Assistant Director for Reactor Safety, DSI

SUBJECT:

PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF NRC CONSULTANT'S REPORT ON THE CHUGGING LOAD SPECIFICATIONS FOR MARK II CONTAINMENTS Enclosed is a copy of an internal memorandum describing our preliminary assessment of the concern raised by Professor G. Bienkowski on the Mgnte Carlo analytical approach used for the Mark II Containment Long Term' Program Steam Chugging _ Loads proposed by the Mark II owners and found acceptable by the staff. Our current evaluation leads us to conclude that our earlier findings on the chugging load specifications remain valid. Nevertheless, we have scheduled a meeting with representatives of the Mark II owners to be held in Bethesda, Md on February 2,1982 to develop an approach for resolution of this issue by May 30, 1982. O f

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$.ht Themis P. Speis, Assistant Director

Enclosure:

for Reactor Safety As stated Division of Systems Integration cc: R. Mattson D. Eisenhut S. Hanauer F. Schroeder W. Butler K. Kniel J. Kudrick P. Boehnert. C. Anderson F. Eltawila CONTACT: F. Eltasila, CSB:DSI X-29418 l 0w( + [L j9d _y V S %;/o ep I t i

7 UNITED STATES ~ #[ NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION e o W ASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 I .,E g %*****/. JAN 2 01982 W. Butler, Chief, Containment Systems Branch, DSI A. MEMORANDUM FOR: J. Kudrick, Section Leader, Containment Systems BrancM THRU: ' DSI F. Eltawila, Containment Systems Branch, DSI FROM: PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF NRC CONSULTANT'S REPORT ON

SUBJECT:

THE CHUGGING LOAD SPECIFICATIONS FOR MARK II CONTAIN-MENTS Enclosed is a copy of a report prepared by staff consultant Professor George Bienkowski on the effects of desynchronization on the Mark II chugging load This work was performed as part of our technical assistance speci fications. program at the Brookhaven National Laboratory to support the staff in review-ing the plant-specific chugging load specifications for the Susquehanna and However, the report's conclusions are equally applicable to WPPSS-2 plants. the generic load specifications reported in NUREG-0808. By way of background the staff's program for developing the pool dynamic load The first phase was specifications for the Mark II program had three phases. to develop interim (bounding) specifications for the lead plants, which in-cluded the LaSalle, Zimmer and Shoreham plants. The approved specifications The second phase was called are reported in NUREG-0487 and its supplements. the Long Tenn Program (LTP) and was charged with developing the final generic (LTP) specift::ations. The approved specifications are reported in NUREG-0808. One of the requirements that users of the. lead plant specifications had to com-mit to was a reanalysis of their plants.against the generic (LTP) specifica-tions within one year of their publication. The third phase of this program involved the plant-unique reviews. Major ef-forts in this third phase included the reviews for the Susquehanna and WPPSS-2 The applicants for these plants proposed chugging load specifications plants. that were different from the generic load (LTP) specifications. We have completed a preliminary evaluation of the Bienkowski report and find that we agree with the report's conclusion that a deficiency exists in the However, it is our chugging methodology proposed by the Mark II Owners Group. judgment that other conservatisms in the chugging loads are such that the safety margins are maintained to allow current licensing efforts to continue. This conclusion-is' based.on comparisons of the chugging load' specifications with results from the Mark II full scale multivent tests. To confirm this judgment, additional studies of this issue are recommended with input from the owners of Mark II, plants. The chugging loads consist of symmetric and asymmetric (overturning moment) loadings on the containment boundaries. The chugging load analyses utilize (! M# ps!

e n JAN 2 01982 W. Butler r-empirical chugging sources for each vent downcomer, based on the highest chug-ging load observe'd in several prototypical test facilities (i.e., 4TC0 and f GKMIIM). These empirical chugging sources are used in analyses of multivent Mark II containments in conjunction with a multivent acoustic model for each plant. The methodology allows for limited desynchronization of the vent chugs during a gross pool chug. The maximum chug desynchronization window

  • was de-termined to be 50 milliseconds (ms) by examination of the data obtained from the full scale JAERI multivent test facility. The assignment of chug ctart times for each of the individual vents was determined by random selection from the 50-ms time window.

Professor Bienkowski has expressed a concern regarding this random selection process for the individual vent chug initiation times for both the symmetric and asymmetric chu5ging load specifications for the Mark II plants. His concern stems from the fact that the load specifications are based on use of only one set of chug start times for each plant. He contends that the selection of a different set of start times could result in a significant rearrangement of the power associated with the load for selected frequencies (i.e., the power spec-tral density, PSD, associated with the chugging pressure history would change). even though the total power associated with the chugging event remains constant. This could result in a significant " poke through" of the current chugging load specification at certain frequencies and, of course, a reduction at other fre-l quencies. The potential for these " poke through". exists for frequencies in the l 20-50 Hz range for the symmetric chugging load specification and in the 10-50 Hz range for the asymmetric chugging load specification. Furthermore, the potential for " poke through" is more pronounced for the asymmetric than the symmetric load case. Professor Bienkowski agrees with the staff's view that for a variety of reasons the exceedance of the specified chugging loads does not necessarily imply the lack of an adequate safety margin for the co7tainment or any individual compo-nent in the plant. However, additional work involving the Mark II owners should be done to determine the significance -of the potential non-conservatism ("fre-quency poke through") due to the development of the chugging load specifications with only a single set of start times. This work'is needed to confirm the ade-quacy of the current chugging load specifications. However, in the interim, it is the staff's judgment that this issue need not impact current Mark II 1,1 censing effort. The basis for our judgment is as follows : 1. Chugging is a very complex condensation p'henhmenon 'that involves unsteady, turbulent, two-phase flow. Consequently, the development of the chugging load ipecification was based on a semi-empirical approach. This approach relied primarily on the use of a data base taken from full-scale single vent tests which cover the range of conditions in Mark II plants. The chugging sources selected for the load specification represent the largest amplitude chugs and the grer. test power-by-frequency of chugs observed in the single vent prototypical. test facilities. -These chuggir.g sources

  • The chugging window is the range of time within which all vents must chug during a gross pool chug.

~ ~ JAN 2 01982 W. Putler - 7 represent chug events that have amplitudes greater than the amplitude associated with more than 90% of the total chugging events observed during these tests. The sources are applied in a desynchronized man-ner with the start times selected at random from within a 50 ms window. Numerous cbnservatisms were incorporated into the chugging load speci-fication to account for imperfections in the chugging methodology. The most significant of these conservatisms include: the selection of very i high source strengths; application of the sources with a narrow desyn-chronization window; and use of the envelope of all the design chugs for the containment evaluation. These conservatisms in the chugging load specifications were adopted to envelope the effects of any deficiencies that might still exist in this complex methodology; thus, a key element in the acceptance of the proposed chugging load specification was the confirmation of the methodology with results from full scale multivent tests. The chugging models were benchmarked against the prototypical JAERI multivent tests. This benchmark was conducted using the eight largest chugs mea'sured under prototypical blowdown conditions. The calculated responses bounded the multivent data with substantial margin for all frequencies up to 50 Hz. However, Professor Bienkowski noted a defi-ciency in the benchmarking of the chugging methodology against the JAERI data. He noted that a number of different sets of start ~ times were used in the benchmark calculations whereas only ~a single set of start times is used in the Mark II containment design evaluation. Professor Bienkowski performed calculations to assess the significance of using only a single - set of start times in the benchmark calculations with the result that the load specification is still bounding' at all frequencies except at fre-quencies between 45 and 50 Hertz where the JAERI envelope slightly ex-ceeds the specification. The following table provides a comparison of the peak power spectral design over the frequency range of interest. GENERIC (c'orrected for one FREQUENCY JAERI (measured) set of start times) 2 2 5-9 1.3 (psi /H,) 3.2 (ps1 /H ) z 10-20 1.2 1.6 20-30 0.1 0.6 30-40 < 0.1 0.1 45-50 0.1 < 0.1 The " poke through" occurs in the high frequency range where the power of the chugging source 'is relatively small. P

JAN : 01982 W. Butler - 4*- r. 2. The recalculation of the JAERI benchmark by Professor Bienkowski discussed'in Section 1 above used an arbitrarily determined, single .ct of start times. A different set of start times could change these resul ts. An exhaustive study utilizing a single set of start times has not been conducted. However, the Mark II containments have been evalu-ated for other dynamic loads which bound the chugging loads in this high frequency range. The generic condensation loads is one such load. This load contains significant power in the 20-50 Hz range because of the syn-chronous application of the load. The Susquehanna (PP&L) containment evaluation did not utilize the generic chugging or condensation oscillation loads. However, their benchmark studies of their chugging load specification bounded the JAERI data with substantially greater margin than even the generic (LTP) load specifica-tion. In addition, comparison of the Sus load specification with the generic (LTP)quehanna condensation oscillation condensation oscillation load specification indicates that they compare favorably. 3. Many different scaled and full scale multivent tests- (JAERI, Creare, GKSS and FSTF) have been conducted to study this chugging phenomenon on pres-sure suppression containments. These tests have demonstrated the rela-tively small variability of chug strengths among vents during a given pool chug. Recognizing this, a significant emphasis was placed on the develop-ment of the symmetric chugging load. However, as a prudent measure, an asymmetric chugging load was developed to allow an assessment of Mark II containment for the possible imbalance due to a variation in chug strength among vents during a gross pool chug. During the development of this load there was some question even as to the need for an asymmetric load since the application of symmetric load with the unifonn vent source strength to M.rk II containments results in an asymmetric loading of the containment vessel that is consistent with multivent tests. Nevertheless, an asymmetric l load specification was included in the chugging load specification to pro-vide for additional capability for imbalance arising from variation in the I vent chug strength during a pool chug. The primary deficiency in the chugging loads pointed out by Professor Bienkowski related to the fact that the asymmetric load specification is not bounding for all frequencies. He points out that the use of a number of sets of chug start times versus the use of a single set of start times 1 can result in significant " poke through" in the 10-50 Hz frequency range. The staff maintains that the asymmetric load specification was recognized at the outset to be imperfect. Our discussion of this load specification in NUREG-0808 notes that this load was not rigorously justified from an analytical view. There are no known or established phenomena related to chugging events for which reasonable bounding asymmetric loads can rea' son-ably be derived. Therefore, it was not the staff's intent in NUREG-0808 that a rigorous asymmetric load bounding at all frequencies should be developed. We pointed out in NUREG-0808 that the specified asymmetric load specification was not the best one from a strictly statistical con-sideration. However, we concluded that it was a reasonable measure of

e JAN 2 01982 l W. Butler asymmetry given the 'small potential for development of significant asymmetrical loads. Our conclusion regarding the adequacy of the asymetric load is unchanged by Professor Biehkowski's study. Another argument in favor of the acceptability of the existing asym-metric chugging load should be noted. Professor Bienkowski's study was based on a Monte Carlo study of poten-tial asymmetries. This study made the very conservative assumption that during a gross pool chug, the chug strength observed at any time during a blowdown could occur simultaneously at all vents. This was the assump-tion made for the Susquehanna plant-specific asymmetric load. However, the 4TC0 tests and the JAERI tests demonstrated that there is a relatively small variability of chug strengths among vents during a given pool chug. ~ The generic asymmetric chugging specification made use of this observa-tion. The generic (LTP) load specification was based on the variation in individual vent chug strengths during each of 38 pool chugs in the JAERI multivent tests. It should be noted that no significant asymmetries were noted in the full scale JAERI Mark II.multivent tests, nor in any of the other multivent steam tests. 4. The assessment of Mark II containments for pool dynamic loads consider the chugging loads in conjunction with a number of other conservatively specified dynamic loads. These other load specifications include Safety Relief Valves (SRV) Load and seismic load specifications. Furthermore, for evaluation of the containment structure, the loads are combined using the conservative absolute sum method. In addition, these asymmetric (SRV and pool swell) loads are included in Mark II containment design studies. Therefore, it is our judgment that the net effect, on the total contain-ment design loads, of " frequency poke through" for a single load specifi-cation is small. It is our judgment that it would result in a relatively small, if any, increase in the total loads on the containment. It should also be noted that Professor Bienkowski's desynchronization con-cern does not apply to either LaSalle or Zimer plants for the following reasons. The nature of the LaSalle and Zimmer load specifications is such (i.e., these loads wer,e applied in phase) that chugging power in the high fre-quency range is greater than that for the generic (LTP) chugging load specifications. .The LaSalle applicant used the lead plant chugging luads specification. The chugging sources were developed from the 4TC0 data (similar but not identical to the generic (LTP) sources). These sources were conservatively applied in-phase to the containment. The condensation oscillation sources are essentially the same.as the generic ( sources in that they are applied in-p%se.LTP) condensation oscillation j

JAN 2 01982 W. Butler... 'The.Zimmer applicant used semi-empirical chugging and condensation oscillation specifications. A comparison of the Zimmer design load specification with the lead p'. ant load specification (LaSalle) shows that it bounds the LaSalle load specificaition at all frequencies. With regard to the Zimmer and LaSalle asymmetric load specification, the lead plant specification with predominent frequency in the range 20-30 Hz is conservatively applied directly to the wetwell wall (i.e., no credit for desynchronization) with peripheral variation of ampli-tude (+20 psi maximum. overpressure, -14 psi maximum underpressure, with maximum and minimum pressure applied in diametrically opposed locations). Based on the above discussion we conclude that the current lead plant and generic (LTP) specifications for chugging loads for the Mark II containments are conserative and acceptable. However, additional studies of the issues raised by Professor Bienkowski should be con-ducted with input from the Mark II owners to confirm this conclusion. These studies will focus primarily on the symmetric chugging loads. Further, we believe that the current licensing activities for Mark II plants may continue. M Farouk Eltawila Containment Systems Branch Division of Systems Integration

Enclosure:

As stated l l 4 )

j l i Mark U Churring I. mad Specification (Effects of Desynchronisation) While the data bases, source strengths, or calculational procedures may differ between the generic, SSES and WPPSS chugging load specifications, the procedure for desynchronization of chug start times is identical. Both the symmetric and asymmetric specifications are based on the application of the minimum variance set of start times (at the N vents of the plant), from 1000 such sets based on uniform probability distribution within a 50 m see time window. The same set of start times is used for all of the sources in the I cpecifications of both the symmetric and asymmetric loading. The NRC staff review of the specifications concluded that the data bases, deduced design sources and application are conservative for the symmetric load, and while difficult to quantify for the asymmetric casa provide a reasonable measure of asymmetry. The justification of the selection of the minimum variance set of start times was based on an examination of the rms values of vertical force and overturning moment. The decrease of rms value of vertical force with start time variance and the relative insensitivity of overturning moment rms amplitude convince'd the staff that the cpecification was " reasonable. " No information was presented,by either GE or the individual plants, on the sensitivity of the frequency content of the loads to the specific selection of start times. Claarly the underestimation of even small amounts of energy at major natural frequencies of the overall plant L I L I l.--- - -. -

e 2-cenfiguration could lead to potential no'nconservatism in individua11oads or ~ nccelerations at various structural components. I j ' Appendix III (The Effects of Desynchronization on Chugging Loads) examines the potentialimpact of the specific selection of a i 3 cingle set of start times on the frequency content in the vertical force and overturning moment for three plant configurations and specifications (Generic, l i SSES and WPPSS). The attached figures (III.11 to III.14) from Appendix HI j oummarize the results. All four figures show that both the vertical force and overturning moment can have a ' reasonable chance of 1/1000 of exceeding the opecification by as much as a factor of 10 at frequencies with significant i Alternatively,one can interpret these results to conclude energy in the source. 1 l that there is a high exceedance probability (approaching one) that at some 4 frequency in the 20-50 Hz range the true load on the structure will substantially exceed the specified load. The consequences of the potential non-conservatism on the response cpectrum level at specific nodes of the structure are difficult to assess without occess to the full computer codes for the individual plants. The analysis and 4 calculations of Appendix III suggest, however, that a specific set of start times I will always produce substantial cancellation of any measure of structural response at some frequencies above 20 Hz. Since these frequency " holes" cre dependent on the specific selection and assignment of start times to individual vents, it is virtually impossible to guarantee a low exceedance

a f probability at any frequency above 20 Ez on the basis of the specified de s ynchronization. While the choice of the minimum variance set optimizes the synchronization to maximize the symmetric load at low frequencies, no generalization of this hypothesis can be justified either at higher frequencies or for other measures of structural response. The possible high probability of exceedance of the specified chugging loads, 9 course, does not necessarily imply lack of safety margin on any f individual component in the plant. Other loads could be bounding in the relevant frequency range or other design constraints may have resulted in safety margins well above.those imposed by chugging. Individual as se s sment, component by component, is clearly a difficult procedure at best. If one retains the " physical," intuition that the symmetric and asymmetric loadings provide two " extreme" conditions, that adequately describe the " major" structural excitations, one has a clear and attainable obje'etive. The speci-fication must provide loading conditions withlow exceedance probability of both the vertical force and overturning moment, or frequency regions where the exceedance probability is high have to be bounded by other specifications. For bstance, the generic condensation oscillation load provides adequate margin for the vertical force PSD in the range of 20-50 Hz because of the synchronous application of the loading. Unfortunately, the lack of any appreciable energy in that frequency range in the KWU CO specification fails + e ...___..i

4 to provide the same conservatism for Ehe SSES plant. No other asymmetric, loading appears as an obvious candidate to bound the chugging induced over-turning moment. Relatively simple " fixes" to the present specification can define loading conditions that provide an exceedance probability of less than 1 in 1000 for the vertical force and overturning moment. For instance, the addition of a loading specification which applies the sources at about 20% amplitude but synchronized in time, will provide adequate bounds over the 20-50 Hz range for the Generic, SSES and WPPSS symmetric load. The application of the asymmetric loading with an asymmetric factor increased slightly above the specification and full synchronize. tion in time can insure a low exceedance probability of the over-turning moment over the entire frequency range. Whether these are the best, or the easiest procedures, to provide adequate conservatism is not obvious without a more detailed examination of the actual application of these loading conditions. 4

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Appendix UI i i j Effects of Desynchronization on Chugging Loads l A. Introduction ) A substantial body of experimental evidence exists to indicate that chugging has a random character. While mean values and standard deviations exhibit dependence on both the properties of the fluid and the nature of the steam being condensed any individual chug amplitude can be 2 i defined only on a probabilistic basis. Both subscale and full scale multi-f, vent tests (References III 1, III 2, III 3) also indicate that while on a gross j time scale, associated with the repetition rate, events at different vents I j are synchronized, on the time scale of the chug itself start times have a j highly random character as well. j The proper assessment of a chugging design load (or response spectrum) j in a Mark U containment must take fun cognizance of the stochastic nature I of the phenomena. An evaluation of the conservatism associated with any loading configuration or any local response can only be performed on the i basis of an exceedance probability. This is true whether or not the prob-l abilistic nature of the data base is used directly or indirectly in defining'the l loading condition. It is also true that different measuresof a loading may yield different levels of exceedance probability for a given loading configuration. Conversely, a given exceedance probability win require different loading configurations if diffsrent global or local measures of the load are used. l h

2-For a combination of practical and historical reasons load specification for Mark II plants consists of two loading configurations, called the symmetric ond the asymmetric cases. The measures chosen for evaluation of con-servatism in the loads are total vertical force for the symmetric case and W hile total overturning moment for the asymmetric loading configuration. the data base and detailed application are different, the fundamental definitions of the loading configurations are essentially the same in the generic and the plant unique methodologies. The symmetric loading configuration consists of the application of chugs of equal strength A at all vents (WPPSS applie s an increased amplitude at. 3 vents). The start times, however, are chosen from that sequence of random numbers that produced a minimum variance in 1000 trials from a uniform distribution within a 50m see time window. In the WPPSS methodology each group of 3 vents at a given angle Ois taken to chug synchronously. The source strength and time histories are different in the generic and the SSES and WPPSS methodologies. All procedures, however, use a source strength that is greater than the mean of the data on which it is based in order to account for the probability of an event significantly different from the " average" or " expectation vslue" event. The asymmetric configuration is obtained by distributing the source etrengths asymmetrically; (A+ Bcos0) distribution in SSES, and (1 + c() A a'nd (1 - e() A on opposite sides of a containment diameter in the generic methodology, 1 l l l

1 l 3-and A (1 + CR cos 0) in WPPSS. The v51ue B, C, and o(, in each case, are chosen from some evaluation of the variance in amplitudes in the 'r'espective data bases for the methodologies. ' The start times, however, are chosen in exactly the same way as in the symmetric case. Since each of the design loading configurations consists of a " single" distribution of source strengths and start times at the vents in the containment, the quantitative value of exceedance probability for any given load associated with that specific configuration is difficult to assess. The use of a " minimum" l variance" event in assigning start times appears " intuitively" conservative for the net force as a measure of symmetric load. The use of the minimum variance event is much more difficult to justify for the asymmetric case. In order to provide a formalism within which the exceedance probabilities of the design load specifications can be assessed a formal fully probabilistic analysis is presented in section B. These theoretical results are compared to theoretically predicted results using the P. P. &L specification in section C. i Some results of Monte Carlo computations are presented in section D, and a discussion of the implications on the symmetric and asymmetric load specifi-cations is presented in section E. B. Stochastic Formulation III, 4 Because of the linear nature of both the fluid description (IWEGS/ MARS) and the structural analysis (ANSYS) III. 5, and the WPPSS methodology III. 6, any measure of either global or local load can be represented as a sum over the ( The responses due to each source applied independently at each vent exit. 4

4 r-specific measure of response due to any individual source can be represented in terms of linear operator (Green's function or inDuence coefficient) acting upon that source hh. A generalized response Oy due to a source of amplitude /g with a start time k can be symbolically written as: Rv=4 % $(%))= A>4(SS4 31 The total response to all of the sources in a Mark II containment can then be obtained by a straightforward summation, W W R=Zb=?44(sw) " 2) $=1

R=1 where N is the number of vents.

Both to facilitate the stochastic analysis and to provide better measures of the. loading it is convenient to replace the time variable by the frequency variable through the Fourier transform W): ((d)d!. . The response measure Rp can now be written as 8,(w) = A, e'tb9 N,(w) S(w) E.S ~ ~ 1 hQ is now the operator in Fourier space and S(W) is the Fourier where transform of the normalized source with a start time.at 'd=0 Note that g (w) S(w) can be considered the unit response or just the contribution at H frequency f.:: % to the response R(ap) from a normalized source with a )

-5 c. sero start time. The total response E at frequency -f-is then just the sum Ud2e over the amplitude factors Ap 8 times these unit responses. [ Aye is a complex number there will clearly be both an in-phase Since contribution Re [d,eW*)' = Ap oso$ and an out-of-phase component 1m (Ap e")= Ay v'wty. h are random variables, each with an Since both .nd associated probability distribution, the specific response R (w) will clearly be random in character with some resultant probability distribution P (R). I For N sufficiently large, the central limit theorem (Reference III.7) states W that P (E) will approach the normal distribution with a mean A =I#p and As M [ n [ dg' ' under some relatively weak conditions on a variance >'N boundedness of the randomvariables Ep. Experience shows, that unless the probability distribution of E is very peculiar, the number N need not be very p large for the normal distribution to become a very good approximation for N R = 2' F we wi11 therefore examine prob bilities of a=r measure or 9 Y.~I loading 5 (w) exceeding some pre-selected value on the assumption that N of the order of 100 in a Mark II containment is sufficient for the central limit to hold. t The mean value)(p and the variance $ can be obtained on the basis of the prescribed probability density ((A) for the amplitudes A and the p h. If we assume these probability density 1!;p) for t:te start times probability densities to to independent of each other and further take

.6 (h ~ = (m 4) 0 N>[ = the resultant mean values become 4 :/4 ! h [w) 6[J) in phase p (2YA) (III. 5) Mp% O out of phase where j( is the mean valu of the chug amplitudes. 2/ 2 jg))/f (III.6) 4 O The associated variances become ky j + $" U_- y ) in phase (m.7) and SV l SY

  • k y D

= / MT J k g out of phase (III. 8) f

i, c-er[L is the variance of the amplitude probability distribution where I p hd) ~/4. (III 9) 4 The normalized mean and the associated normalized standard deviations ( and g (normalization is performed by dividing by the response due to the average chug A //p[g)((O) )is shown as a function of MT in Yigures III. la, b and c. The corresponding frequencies are also indicated on the abscissa for the case of 7= 50 m sec. The standard deviations are plotted for several normalized variances of the amplitude I distribution (.: = 0.1, O. 3, D. 5 and 1. O. Note that for low values of GT (near synchronization) the in-phase standard deviation from the mean is primarily determined by the variance of the' chug amplitudes but at higher values of s(( both the in-phase and out-of-phase standard l deviations arise primarily from the de-phasing of start times and are only weakly affected by the variance of amplitudes. The specific response amplitude (a globalload, local deflection, or response spectrum) for any given exceedance probsbility. g can be simply determined from the normal probability distribution as: l e 9 e n_,

8-e C N l j[ej [F p,, hj f h in P ase 1 t (III 10) out of phase p y (fe) is a factor obtained from the normal distribution. For where 0 pe) =3.09 and for g=10 ~ If the total 'g 4. 28. g =/0 rz z 7 amplitude R (w) R ' (W) + R2 (W) is to be determined, or some combination g Fz 2 such R +R where R and R are two ioads aiong mutual 1y orthogona1 axes the results can be determined from different integrals of the multi-dimensionai normal distribution. While in general the results may be very ~5 complicated, for the low levels of gf/p the effect is primari1y to to some new function E tj/4 #/ d) change the function p[ j For instance, if R, and R represent moments about two perpendict'.ar axes,the roults for. symmetric containment show that if one picks an axis p = 10, and asks for the exceedance of a fixed moment about that axis for y = 4.28,while if one asks for the exceedance of the magnitude of the gago,,;,=)=d.0im,1,ingon1ya ioad in any direetion at the same S I e I w i

12% higher amplitude. Alternatively the magnitude of the moment about a ~ fixed axis for an exceedance probability of 10 corresponds to th'e magnitude independent of direction at an exceedance level of about 10 Therefore, rather than getting involved with the complexities associated with any loads or Fourier coefficients that must be summed as the square root of the sum of the squares, we shall first examine theoretically the net in-phase vertical force and the net in-phase overturning moment about a fixed but arbitrary axis as measures of the symmetric and asymmetric loads. In the following section, ~ these loads are computed based on the analysis above and compared to the P. P. & L. specification. C. Theoretical Stochastic-Analysis of Vertical Force and Overturning Moment compared to P. P. & L. Specification C.1 Symmetric Load If one uses the total vertical force as a measure of the symmetric load as done in the P. P. & L. DAR each source's contribution to the force i j

  1. ,(a) Slu) corresponds to the Fourier transform of the integral of the pressure from the vent 2) over the entire basemat. Since the major contribution comes from near the vent, except for fringe effects near the pedestal and outer wall, each of the contributions can be considered identical and interpreted as the basemat pressure times some effective area (

/)j ).. Using this interpretation we can deduce the value of ( MM) St::.11 as being consistent with the DAR evaluation of the low frequency filtered t e =

amplitudes and with the RMS values in'both GKM and JAERI. The results of figure III. I can be applied together with equation III.10 to plot the effective symmetric amplitude factor , (w) versus frequency for any desired exceedance probability. The in-phase components of the vertical force, based on variable amplitude and phase,are shown as the solid lines in figure III. 2a for the mean A and mean plus 3 standard deviations h43s'). l The corresponding curves for the load specification amplitude factor are represented by dashed lines. Since the specification uses the most synchronized set out of 1000 sets of starting times and,at low frequencies, the symmetric load increases with increasing sychronization the %+3r) tem /t j is thought to be generally representative of the specification. The in-phase vertical force, therefore, is expected to be represented generally conservatively over the relatively low frequencies, where most of the energy is concentrated. Note however that the actual specification using the minimum variance start times can fall well below the h+3r) results at frequencies above about 15 Hz. -(See Section D) The out-of-phase component can also be analyzed by the present techniques and compared to the specification. As can be seen from figure III.1, the major contribution will come at higher frequencies. Since the contribution of the out-of-phase component to the total amplitude of the vertical force at low exceedance probability is small, the proper representation 'of that component l

is not very important. For the present analysis at p, = 10' the total amplitude is never more than 12% higher than the in-pha se component, thus even if the specification start times were to produce no out-of-phase component the comparison would not significantly change from that shown in Fig. III 2a. (Results including the out-of-phase component are showm in section D. ) C. 2 A symmetric Load If one uses total overturning moment as a measure of asymmetric loading as done in the P. P. & L. DAR each source's contribution to the //p[e) $[w) corresponds to the Fourier transform of the integral i moment over the basemat of the pressure multiplied by a moment arm from the selected axis. As in the symmetric case, the fact that the major contribution comes from beneath the vent allows one to approximate M o) ((w) by J._p ((w) Ap where 2p is the perpendicular distance from the selected axis to the vent location. Using this interpretation plus the value of =.11 deduced from the amplitude variance we can generate from Figure III lb and the data in figure 9-188 and 9-189 of the DAR the effective asymmetric arnpiitude [ta) for any exceedance probability p, based on the present factor fully stochastic analysis. I

Figure III Zb shows a comparis5n of the in-phase component of 1,(Q from the present analysis for A and h+~)#) results (shown as s61id lines) to the corresponding results from the application of the asymmetric DAR load specifications. The fact that the asymmetric load depends not only on the specific selection of start times but also on the distribution of those start times around the containment makes it difficult to precisely define the loading arising from the specification. While a fortuitous choice of distribution of start times around the containment could approach the h f 3() values at relevant frequencies and thus correspond to exceedance probability near 10 even at those moderate frequencies, this is clearly unlikely. The more probable result near the mean,A. could lead to high exceedance probabilities. Indeed, four applications of the minimum variance start times show overturning moments that can be appreciably below the h+3r) results at frequencies above 15 Hz. (See section D). The results of figure III. 2 show clearly that the use of amplitude factors l l in the P. P. & L. DAR specification coupled with random selection of start times leads to loads with statistical properties that are generally more conservative than the random selection of both amplitudes and start times that could be considered the more " realistic" representation of multi-vent chugging. The more disturbing feature is the behavior of the actual application of the specification (a single application of minimum variance start times) at frequencies above 15 Hz. Because of the possible

'. cancellation of contributions from diflErent vents a single selection of start times can and indeed does lead to " holes" in frequency at which r gardless cf the source, no net effect on vertical force or moment may be transmitted. This appears particularly pronounced for the asymmetric load. In order to investigate this effect of desynchronization more fully, many Monte Carlo calculations have been performed. The results are presented in section D. 1 D. MONTE CARLO Computations Compared to Symmetric 4 and A symmetric Load Specifications In order to more fully evaluate the potentia 11ack of conservatism i resulting from a single application of a specific set of minimum variance start times, a number of Monte Carlo calculations were performed for the i P. P. & L., Generic and WPPS configurations and specificationc. For each of the'se the net vertical force and overturning moment were computed on the same basis as the theoretical evaluations in section C, i.e. equal contribution i i from each veat to the force and a moment contribution proportional to the ~ moment arm of each vent about a pre-selected axis. For each of the plant configurations considered,1000 Monte Carlo trials were performed. Start times were selected randomly frorri a uniform distri-bution within a 50 m see time window. For the variable amplitude cases source amplitudes were selected from a normalized distribution using a JAERI established variance of h = The symmetric and asymmetric amplitude i I factors and spatial distributions were selected for each configuration on the i

r: basis of the relevant specification. Enumber of statistical measures were calculated and compared to the theoretical results from section CYhere appropriate. The in-phase and out-of-phase expectation values and standard deviations, determined " experimentally" from the 1000 trials, agree so well with the " theoretical" values that on a figure such as III. I or III. 2 they are indistinguishable. A summary of the results is presented in figures III. 3 through III. 8. For each plant configuration and corresponding specification the vertical force results are presented as the square of the force amplitude normalized by N times the contribution from a single vent versus the frequency. (N is the number of vents in the configuration. ) The overturning moment is presented as the amplitude squared normalized by the results from synchronized sources distributed geometrically as shown on the figure label. Both results can be interpreted as the PSD one would obtain with random phasing, normalized by the PSD for synchronized sources and specified spatial distribution. The se I l l results are therefore independent of the frequency content of the source. The figures show: 1) the effect desynchornization has on the transmission of the frequency content in the source to overall measures of structural response such as force and moment and 2) the comparison of true bounds in 1000 trials to the results of the direct application of the appropriate specification. Figure III. 3 shows the PSD for the vertical force for the SSES plant l normalized by the PSD one would obtain for synchronized application of

'. cverage chugs. The "true" bound of l'UOO trials of variable amplitude chugs applied at random start times to the SSES plant configuration of 87' vents is shown as a solid line. The use of the symmetric specification amplitude factor, defined in the DAR (Reference III. 8) with random start times leads to a bound in 1000 trials that is conservative over the entire frequency range (designated a s - a -). However, the use of the amplitude factor together with the application of the specific set of start times with minimum variance is only conservative at i frequencies below about 20 Hz. Since minimum variance does not uniquely determine the start times, two results from two different sets of 1000 trials are shown (dashed lines ---). Note that the specific frequency " hole," where the PSD will be virtually zero regardless of the energy content within the t source, does depend on the particular minimum variance set. Regardless of the specific set chosen, the DAR specification can lead to high exceedance l probability over some significant (5-10 Hz) frequency range at some frequency above 20 Hz. Figure III. 4 shows similar results for the PSD of the overturning moment for the SSES configuration normalized by the PSD one would obtain from a fully 1 synchornized application of the chugs with a (1 + cos 0) distribution of amplitudes. l Note that again the use of the asymmetric load factor of (Ref. III. 8) combined with desynchronized start times leads to a generally conservative bound within a 1000 trials. Four possible applica+. ions of the specification using a minimum variance set of start times lead to a very pronounced lack of conservatism above

about 10 Hz. Clearly if the overturning moment is a reasonable measure of a loading configuration significant to the structure, the DAR specification may totally miss energy input at quite moderate frequencies of 10-50 Hz. The generic specification does not explicitly use any statisticalinformation on the distribution of amplitudes. In order to compare the results of the "more realistic" variable amplitude chugging to the generic specification, the effective amplitude factor for each of the generic sources has to be estimated. I Table III.1 gives the results computed on the basis of the rms pressure in the Generic Chugging LDR (Ref. III. 9). The amplitude factor is based on the ratio of the specified source rms pressure to the " local" mean rms pressus he chugs within a

  • 20% mass flow variation around the " key" chug used for that particular source specification. For all of the sources except No. 807 the amplitude factor is 2 which is quite comparable to the P. P. & L. specification.

Source 807 comes from run 20 in 4TCO near a region of nearly constant chug amplitude resulting in an effective amplitude factor of Because the PSD l of Source 807 is bounded by other sources at frequenices above about 10 Hz, an amplitude factor of was used in the comparisons of the Monte Carlo trials to the generic specification. Figures III. 5 and III. 6 show analogous information to that shown in Figures III. 3 and HI. 4 but using the generic specifications (Ref. III. 9) for comparison, and the same 87 vent configuration. The conclusions are not very diffe rent. The vertical force specification can be appreciably below the bound

_ _ _. =. l l F cf 1000 trials above 20 Hz, and the overturning moment specification can be orders of mag-itude below the "true" bound for virtually any frequ'ency above 7 ( obout 5 Hz. The WPPSS specification, while using very different calculational procedures (Ref. III.10), relies on the minimum variance set of start times as done in the generic and SSES specifications. The start times, however, are ~ selected for groups of 3 vents going synchronously rather than being selected i for all 102 vents independently. Figures HI.7 and HI. 8 show the results of the specification compared to the "true" bound based on 1000 trials of randomly celected amplitudes and start times for all 102 vents. Note that the greater synchronization produced by grouping of 3 vent sets is a conservative procedure. The vertical force specification therefore is generally near the "true" bound over almost the entire relevant frequency range. The overturning moment while showing the characteristic sensitivity to the specific " minimum variance" set chosen does come closer to the "true" bound than either the generic or SSES specification. Note, however, ths.t an " unlucky" choice of the minimum variance set could stil11ead to a PSD " hole" at virtuauy any frequency above 5 Hz. Two general conclusions from Figures III. 3 to III. B can be drawn. The amplitude factors for the symmetric load and the spatial distributions 1. for the asymmetric load lead to representations of the loading ccnditions with statistical properties that produce a higher load at the same exceedance probability than tnat resulting from statistically distributed chug amplitudes. e e-u.-

i 2. The specification of a single set of start times (no matter how determined) does not give a result withich corresponds to, even approximately, the same exceedance probability at all frequencies. Indeed frequency " holes," where virtually no energy is transmitted from the source to the resultant measure such as force or moment, willin general arise for any single set of start times. This conclusion is relevant to any other response of the structure whether local or global, although the importance of this effect may be significantly reduced for local masures of structural response. The conservatism of the loading on a Mark II containment depends both on the conservatism in the source strengths and on the methodology of application. Reference HI. 9 shows an application of the generic sources to the JAERI (Ref. HI. 3) facility compared to the JAERI data. In order to match statistics of the application to the quantity of data available, the theoretical computation used the bounds of eight " Monte Carlo" trials averaged over 20 such sets of 8 trials each. The information presented in Figure 6. 3 of Referene HI. 9 suggests a conservatism in the s'ource strength of the order of three or higher over most frequencies up to 50 Hz. In order to test whether this conservatism could be consumed by the demonstrated non-conservatism in the desynchronization specification, Monte Carlo trials analogous to those presented in Figures III. 3 to HI,8 were performed for the JAERI configuration. Figure HI.9 shows a comparison for the normalized PSD of the vertical force (the moment is not meaningful for this configuration) as computed for 1

. i e-Figure 6. 3, to the results based on variable amplitudes and synchronization based on the specification. The same potential non-conservatism' exists for this facility as for the full scale plant configurations, although the specific minimum variance results may actually be more conservative than the (Bound of 8 average over 20) GE result at frequencies below about 25 Hz. If one applies the ratio of the " minimum variance" result to the GE result to Figure 6. 3 of reference HI. 3, one can compare the actual application of the generic specification to the measurements in the JAERI facility. Figure III.10 shows such a comparison. Note that, above 25 Hz, the speci-fication does not provide any conservatism over the data, and may indeed miss a small, although significant, amount of energy above 40 Hz. While the source strengths in the JAERI facility may indeed be conservatively bounded by the specified sources based on 4TCO data, the application of the specified desynchronization could lead to either no margin or even some non-conservatism for the seven-vent configuration in JAERI. While no information on asymmetric Ioading can be deduced from JAERI, comparison of figure III,6 to III. 5 shows that a lack of margin in thy symme.ric load suggest a very high potential for exceedance in the asymmetric load because of the greater sensitivity to the specific selection of start times. The comparison to JAERI results cannot, therefore, be used to show overall conservatism in the specification of chugging loads. 4

i i C-E. Discussion and Conclusions In order to examine the effect of desynchronization on ucce' specific cources the PSD's of the vertical force and overturning moment were computed for both SSES and the Generic specifications. The results of section D were cpplied directly to the bottom center pressures computed on the basis of the oppropriate design sources. For the SSES comparison,PTH No.6 based on Source 306 was used as an example. This source was selected because it exhibits the highest energy content in the 25-50 Hz range. Figures III.11 and III.12 show the synunetric and asymmetric results respectively. Note that the PSD of the vertical force shows a potential non-conservatism at a significant peak around 29 Hz. W hile the energy content potentially missed by the specification is a small fraction of the total energy in the vertical force, it may have important consequences if a natural frequency of the structure exists in the underestimated frequency range. The potential non-conservatism of the specification of the overturning moment is even more evident in Figure III.12. The energy content may clearly be underestimated at virtually all frequencies above 10 Hz. Similar results for the generic specification are pre sented in Figures III.13 and III.14 based on the bottom center pressure PSD bound of all the generic chugging source s (Figure 4-27, Ref. III. 9). The potential underestimation of emergy content in the vertical force abcve 21 Hz and in the overturning moment i l ( l l t l ^

-LL= 4 1 above 10 Hz is clearly evident. For the specific choice of start times used, it 4 io quite clear that any possible excitation of an asymmetric mode'of the ctructure with a natural frequency above 10 Hz could be totally missed by the specification. The consequences of the potential non-conservatism on the responn cpectrum level at specific nodes of the structure are difficult to assess without necess tr. the full computer codes for the individual plants. The theoretical results of section C together with the Monte Carlo trials of section D suggest, however, a specific set of start times will always produce almost total cancellation of any measure of structural response at some frequencies above the frequency ( f,= I/g- ) associated with the time windowT. Since these frequency " holes" are dependent on the specific selection and asaignment of start times to individual vents, it is virtually impossible to guarantee a low i exceedance probability at any frequency above f, on the basis of the specified de s ynchronization. While the choice of the minimum variance set optimizes the cynchronization to maximize the symmetric load at frequencies below f,, no generalization of this hypothesis.can be justified either at higher frequencies or for other measures of structural response. The possible high probability of exceedance of the specified chugging loads, of course, does not necessarily imply lack of safety margin on any individual component in the plant. Other loads could be bounding in the relevant frequency range or other design constraints may have resulted in safety margins well above those imposed by chugging. Individual as se s sment, component by l

e e by component,is clearly a difficult procedure at best. If one retains the " physical" intuition that the symmetric and asymmetric loadings provide two " extreme" conditions, that adequately describe the " major" structural excitations, one has a clear and attainable objective. The specification must provide loading conditions with low exceedance probability of both the vertical force and overturning moment, or frequency regions where the exceedance probability is high have to be bounded by other specifications. For instance, the generic condensation oscillation load (Ref. III.11, Figure 2-1) provides cdequate margin for the vertical force PSD in the range of 20-50 Hz because of the synchronous application of the loading. Unfortunately, the lack of any cppreciable energy in that frequency range in the KWU CO specification fails to provide the same conservatism for the SSES plant. No other asymmetric loading appears as an obvious candidate to bound the, chugging induced,over-turning moment. Relatively simple " fixes" to the present specification can define Icading conditions that will provide an exceedance probability of less than 1 in 1000 for the vertical force and overturning moment. For instance, the cddition of a loading specification which applies the sources at about 20% cmplitude but synchronized in time, will provide adequate boands over the 20-50 Hz range for the generic, SSES and WPPSS symmetric load. The application of the muymmetric loading with an asymmetric factor increased i slightly above the specification and full synchronization in time can insure h'

1 ~ a low exceedance probability of the overturning moment over the entire Whether these are the best, or the easiest proc'edures, froquency range. to provide adequate conservatism is not obvious without a more detailed i examination of the actual application of these loading conditions. i 4 4 I 1 9 1 e T l

I v: REFERENCES _ III. 1 Creare Multi-Vent Tests (couldn't find reference in the DAR) IH, 2 KWU Multi-Vent Tests in Karlstein HI. 3 JAERI Test Report III. 4 IWEGS Report IH. 5 ANSYS Structural Model HI. 6 WPPSS Fluid & Structural Methodology HI. 7 Feller, W., An Introduction to Probability Theory and It's Applications, Volurne I (2nd Edition), J. Wiley & Sons, New York (1957) pp 238-241 IU. 8 SSES DAR III. 9 GE Report NEDE-24302-P III. 10 BURNS k ROE, Inc. Report " Chugging Loads - Revised Definition ~ and Application Methodology for Mark II Containments" 8 III. 11 GE Report NEDE-24288-P l ^ 4 I s 1

8 t TABLE III.1 GENERIC bHUGGING EFFECTIVE AMPLITUDE FACTOR PROPnlET/RY l'.:FC.lM. PON i .\\*

  • b a

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