ML20039E792
| ML20039E792 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Clinton  |
| Issue date: | 12/22/1981 |
| From: | ILLINOIS POWER CO. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20039E791 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8201110426 | |
| Download: ML20039E792 (86) | |
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A ILLINOIS POWER COMPANY CLINTON POWER STATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES DECEllBER 22, 1981 i
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1.0 INTRODUCTION
The.following is an evacuation time estimate study l of the plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone around Clinton Power Station, which is primarily owned and operated by Illinois Power Company A des-cription of the site, the emergency planning zone, and general assumptions are discussed below.
l 1.1 Site Location'and the Emergency Planning. Zone The Clinton Power Station (CPS) with its associated l man-made cooling reservoir (Lake Clinton) is an .. = gular U-shaped site in DeWitt County in east-central Illinois about 6 miles east of the City of Clinton. The station is located near-the. confluence of Salt. Creek and the North. Fork of the Salt' Creek'about 56 miles
. east of where Salt Creek joins the Sangamon River.
The majority of the site is located in the eastern half of DeWitt County with the arms of the lake extending
- . into the northeastern area of the county. s An area with radius of about 10 miles around CPS is defined as the plume exposure pathway Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ). This area incl'udes a large portion of DeWitt County and only very small, thinly populated portions of Macon, Platt and McLean counties as Figure 1-1 shows.
! 1.2 General Assumptions
- 1. Evacuation of outer rings assumes inner adjacent sectors are being simultaneously evacuated.
- 2. Private automobiles will be predominant means of transportation out of the EPZ. However, there will be buses for school children'and ambulances for transport of special care patients.
! 3. If schools are in session, school children may be evacuated to predesignated schools outside the EPZ.
Parents may then re-unite with children. Periodic
' radio messages could be used to reaffirm tb which specific schools they are being sent.
4.
All data used is most recent available and can be expected to change throughout plant life to some degree. (e.g. population distribution, transient population, etc).
- 5. Efforts will be made early on to maintain evacuation routes open and accessible to traffic. Snow removal, sanding and/or salting are normally used to retain roadways free for travel during bad weather. Most every evacuation route in the EPZ has a 5.to 6 foot l wide grassy / asphalt shoulder which may be used to keep routes free of disabled vehicles.
3
. 6 6r Monitors should be located at.various points =along the evacuation. routes.to. supervise evacuation and to function as trouble shooters helping to maintain optimum traffic ~ flow. Traffic flow should be uni-directional outward and should not allow vehicles to travel into EPZ. One lane should be used for general evacuation traffic while the second is kept open for emergency vehicle routing. Note: Most all
- evacuation routes are two lane rural highways.
- 7. Time delays between initial notification and actual evacuation will be minimized by advance planning and periodic pamphlets distributed to homes in the EPZ which delineate evacuation routes and sectors to
. the populace.. An average of 25 minutes public prepar-
, "'~ st' ion . tiiie Lis" allowed' . foe ths"publi'c . to react to - the evacuation alert. Twenty-five minutes is used for Clinton Power Station because of the number.of farms in"the area. Farms require more time to shut down in preparation for evacuation than a residential home due to a large number of buildings on property and farm animals that muct be rounded up and sheltered. A one hour time delay is assumed for the recreational areas.
- 8. Auto-occupancy factor for the transient population is assumed to be 3 persons per vehicle.
- 9. For the analysis, evacuation time is defined as the sum of the delay time subsequent to public notification and calculated exit and travel times. It is further assumed that delay time is constant for most population i
groups and is' set as 25 minutes. The delay time for transients using the recreation areas is set as one hour or less. Therefore, this analysis primarily z, calculatestthe . major , variable. in any evacuation, the exit and travel. times of.the evac.uees.t, u.. .. .1 : .
buses for school children and ambulo
- 10. Normally in.this-analysis the average normal velocityeus fx tr e -:
of the vehicles was taken to be 25 mph. During adverse 3, weathere the.: average.speedwas taken .co be 15 mph -
For the City of.Clinton and recreational areas, these speeds twere 10 _ mph < and J _mp.h , crespectivelye Ma.w w: , m n 4 - c' H 4 0 - " '
1.3 Methodology The EPZ is relatively sparsely populated with a large number of good county roads to use for evacuation. For this reason it was deemed unnecessary to use complicated mathematical models which in some cases would not provide reasona ble evacuation time estimates. An alternate method was utilized to perform these calculations and is described below, i
Travel times were estimated for 160 areas within the EPZ corresponding to 16 sectors out to 10 miles by 1 mile increments. Each area of land was examined and.the best evacuation route was determined by using major routes as much as possible and by avoiding the Clinton area -
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to the extent possible. Once the best route was determined, its length was calculated, and this was used with the conservative average evacuation speeds to calculate.
. estimated-travel times.
L Estimated Travel times for the City of Clinton was done i in a similar manner and is detailed in Section 4.1. An l
examination of the major recreational arecs is performed I in Section 4.3.
1.4 Miscellaneous Information Figure's 1-2 through 1-13 provide additional site information pertaining'to such topics as the general location of the plant as compared to political subdivisions, topography, i major transportation routes, land use, and recreational development.
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s FIGURE 1-1 CPS EMERGENCY PLANNING ZONE
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MIL E S stacta.c mareas o=i.v j s O s to is 20 as RECREATIOf4AL DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE CLINTO'.1
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Population within the EPZ The population within'10' mile's'of the site isishown-Jon Figure and in Table 4-1. These statistics are based-on anLactual house count conducted by the'DeWitt' County _ Farm Bureau and Illinois Power Company.in 1981~. The total 1981. population within Similes'of the site was 857.. As !
' indicated by~a; population density of 11 persons per square ,
mile,-.the area within 5 miles of the site is very. sparsely. populated. . There are two small residential groupings. within 5 miles of the. site;~one is DeWitt, approximately_.
-population of 232, located 2.5 mile eastnortheast; and the other is Lane,-estimated population of 133, located 3.5 miles south-southwest.
As. indicated on Figure.4-1, the populati'on within:10 miles
- of the site is quite low. A large proportion of the population lives in the City of Clinton.(1980 population-of 8,014), 6 to 7 miles west and west-southwest of the site.
The t'otal 1981 population within'10 mil'e radius of' the station is 12,698. Projections indicate that this area-is. expected to experience a gradual increase in population through the year 2030. The projected population for the year 2030 is 15,045. There are few cities within 10 miles of the site, and-no major population centers (cities with greater than 25,000). As seen in the following' list, the percent population age
- distributi6n within DeWitt County, 1970 was similar to the national. distribution (U.S. Department of Commerce,.
4 1971a, and 1975). Y l a J 1
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21.1 22.4 17.5 12-18 ~ 12.8 13.7 11.1 19 and over 66.1 63.9 71.4 Table 4-3 projects the population expected through the year 2030. Applying the projected U.S. age distribution for the year 2000 (the approximate midpoint of station operating life) to the projected population within 10 miles of the station yields the following expected population: Age Group Projected Population 0-11 2,426 12-18 1,538 19 and over 9,896 Total 13,860 The U.S. projected age distribution is used because in 1970 DeWitt County was not significantly different from the toal U.S. age distribution, when the significance test described in Appendix D of Regulatory Guide 4.2 was applied. Thus, it was assumed that the area within a 10 mile radius of the station (most of which lies within DeWitt County) will have an age distribution similar to that projected for the United States as a whole. Very few persons living in rural area such as DeWitt County will not own as least one vehicle. Many residents live on farms or own' farms while living in town and must have a pick,upmtruckr besides the familyicar.,;The family. car is a necessity'for_ transport to Decatur, Forsyth, Champaign,'Bloomington or. Lincoln for shopping, medical . appointments, etc. Persons who do not choose to own personal vehicles probably live in a nursin may be evacuated by, bus _,in the. event:of an,gemergency... home which
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f 2.2 Transient' Population u.U d a gt auar merease m popuJ.u Recreation is the only significant source of transient population and are listed in Tables 2-1 and 2-2. Weldon Springs State Park, located about 5.5 miles southwest of the site, had 488,982 visitors in 1976 (Illinois Department of Conservation 1976). The 370 acre park, 28 acres of which is lake, offers facilities for fishing, boating,- and hiking (Illinois Department of Conservation 1976). The park is popular because of the lack of other facilities in the county. Average and peak daily attendance, is given in Tablee 474 and 475, by sector. __ The Clinton Country Club, 6.3 miles southwest, has a membership of approximately 210. During the golfing season approximately 75-80 golfers may use the course on a weekend i c I L _ J
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~ day. On'a peak attendance day, up to'200. people may.
useL the facilities,.which include the golf. course, pool, tennis' courts,-.and dining room (Hoffman 1978)' . 1 Arrowhead Acres Camp, located about 6.5, miles southwest- l
- of'the site, operates from April.through October ~and has about :25 longterm campers during the season and up to
<50 campers on.a' weekend (Ferguson 1977).
The Little Galilee. Christian Assembly. Church Camp (located approximately 6 miles southwest'of the city-of Clinton off U.S. Route 51) operates a summer camp between June and September. About 2000 people attend during the season, with about 125~ children in attendance. during each week. A peak attendance of approximately 300 people occurs on weekends when parents pick up and drop - off' children (Johnson 1977).- The nearest industry is located-in the_Clinton Industrial Park, about 6 miles west of the plant. The industries located in this park have approximately 125 employees. Most-of these employees reside locally and are not
, considered transients. .
t -' The only'recreati~onal facility within 5 miles of the station is Lake Clinton. Figure 1-13 shows the recreational l development of the-lake, and Table 2-2-lists the planned recreational facilities. Lake Clinton, which is managed by the Illinois Department of Conservation, was opened to the public on August 22,1979,
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} for boating, fishing, and water skiing. The recreational facilities will be used year round, since snow mobiling { is offered in addition to boating, fishing,_ water skiing, j picnicking, camping, hiking, and hunting. The daily i- - average'of persons-using'the facilities _iscestimated?toybe !: 971 with'a/Pe'ak daily'use'of 11,461 as indicated.in Table 2-1
'an'd Table 2-4.
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1 - - -c , e ~1 l w oc : w . N r. m - i- 2.3 bEcial Facilihss pue s lin lo a nursing imme ud "h i L . , - - . . . ~. b y bus in the everer of m euergemy Discussions with administration offices of local sch'ools L2 ln~disa'tih2 thattino'stsof the staff. and students reside locally and.are considered as permanent population (Nernuh 1977, and . Administration Center of Wapella C.U. School District 1977). Schools within.10 miles of CPS are listed in Table 2-3 e'org with theit approximate number of students. Besides schools, other special-facilities are the John Warner Hospital, with a 52 bed capacity and staff of about
'119,"*>a"nursin'g-home and a mental health center. All h
'three facilities are~1ocated in Clinton. The nurs'ing home is the Crestview Nursing'Home, with 95 residents and 65 staff, and the DeWitt County Human Resource Center, with 10 to 50 outpatients per day and a staff of about 15..
. Figure 2-1 shows the locations of the schools within the EPZ and Figure 2-2 shows the locations of the additional
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/ TABLE 1.-l RECREATIONAL FACILITIES IN THE VICINITY OF CLINTON POWER S1'ATION APPROXIMATE DISTANCE AND DIRECTION FROM AREA ATTENDANCE THE STATION AVERAGE PEAK DAILY DAILY Planned Onsite Facilities 971* 11,461**
Arrowhead Acres 25 50 6.5 miles SW
-- Clinton Country Club 50 200 8 miles SW Little Galilee Christian Assembly Church Camp 135 300 10.5 miles SW Weldon Springs .
State Park 1,300 5,000*** 5.5 miles SW TOTAL 2,481 17,011
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** From Table 2.-'t
***11,000 during fireworks display on Independenc.e Day ,
but displays are no longer held at Weldon Springs. Sources: Illinois Power Company, 1973: Illinois Power Company, 1981; Ferguson, 1977; Hoffman, 1978: Johnson, 1977; and Herzog, 1977. l
e . 4 e TABLE 2-2 FACILITIES OF THE-LAKE CLINTON STATE RECREATIONAL AREA VALUE , RECREAff0 MAL NUMBER 51EE ' USE DESCRIPTION Boating ' Four-Lane Boat samp at the Marina" 1_ Two-Lane Boat Ramp 4 1 Doat/ Canoe Launch Woat Slips Initial Development $$ ruture Development 250 Electric Motor Areas 2 No Wake Areas 2 l Twimming D ' Beach Frontage 8.000 feet Bathhouse and Concession Area 1 ! Fishing - Species: Largemouth Bass. Smallmouth Bass. Sunshine Bass. White ar.d Black Crappie. Stuegill. Walleye, Channel Catfish, and Tiger Musky. The
-- entire lake is open to public fishing except in designated areas of the waterfown reserve area l during migration seasoa.
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' carping
- Class A Sites: With Electricity, showers, and 125 l
Vehicular Access Class a Sites: With Showers and Vehicular 150 Access Class C Sites: With. Vehicular Area 150 Class D Sites: Primitive Carping Area 40 Picnicking d Public Use Picnic Areas S Number of Tables 235 Number of Stoves 200 Privies and Water at All Areas Playground Future Installation Planned. No Projection Equipment Date Hunting Upland Came, Waterfowl, and Deer (Dow only) 2.300 acres Trails Two Traits to be Developed by Summer 1980 12 miles Snowmobiling. Utilizing all Frosen Water Surface and Allowed 5.000 tce Fishing and only When lee is Thick Enough acres Ice Skating' Visitor's Center includes an exhibit room, auditorium. meeting 1
- cces and parking lot.
Sources Coomer (1979).
"The marina offers rental boat slips. boat fuel sales, and a concession store.
bSwtaming f acilittes are to open in Nt4
- Camping facilities are to open in yf62 Picnic areas are to open during summer 1980
' Ice-surf ace activities are to open during winter 1979-1980.
)
TABLE 2-3 SCHOOLS WITHIN 10 MILES OF CLINTON POWER STATION
~
-r
. 3 DISTANCE AND DIRECTION FROM SCHOOL THE SITE EUROLLMENT STAFF Clinton g 1970-71^ 1976 1970-71* 1976-77 Clinton High School 6.3 5ti W 739 777 41 48 Clinton Junior High School 6.3 mi W 420 575 22 33 Douglas Grade School 6.3 mi W 198 226 12 12
-Kenney Grade School 6.3 mi W 169
- 10
* ~*
Kindergarten . 6.3 mi W 167 8 Lincoln Grade School 6. 3 ini W 222 17T 12 ~F Washington Grade School 6.3 mi W 345 382 20 20 Webster Grade School 6.3 mi W 300 230 19 17 C Wapella i Wapella Junior High - and high Schoolc 7.4 mi WNW 160 180 15 16 Wapella Grade School 7.4 mi WNW 226 182 13 13 Weldon d 361 18 DaLand Weldon Grade School -
~
5.3 mi ESE 281** 13** DeLand Weldon High School 10 .0 mi ESE 112 (1981-82) 20 (1981-82) o School has been closed. ._ 001975-1976. Source:
- a. Illinois State Board of Education, 1972.
- b. Nernuh, 1977.
- c. Administation Center, Wapella C.U. School District, 1977.
- d. -Illinois State Board of Education, 1977.
e t' i TABLE 2-9 PEAK DAY USERS OF CLINTON LAKE RECREATIONAL AREA BASED ON AVAILABLE PARKING CAPACITY, OCTOBER 1981 PEAK DAY FACILITY CAR CAMP RECREATIONAL NAME CAR TRAILER SITE USERS Parnall 5 30 - 172 2 Weldon - 39 66 - 514 Northfork 15 24 - 192 Westside 63 27 - 441 Camp Quest 1 7 3 - 790 1 ~ Visitors Center 82 3 - 1158 Mascoutin 724 40 348 5449 Marina 255 182 - 2142 Department of Conservation Hdgrs. 18 4 - 108 Lane p r.i j n 2.0.i ;i i a ,,
~
l 1 W- 'I. i98 ,j h ,0,
__ -n .,, a Penninsula ,, 25; j ,; cl- .' 123 g ;' Tail Water 36 - - 176 s,; { :-: I t. p Northfork Canoe 20 - - 98' r , o a: TOTAL "5 1309 379 348 '11461 3
'Axea designed for bus parking - 180 passengers per bus.
2 Calculated by formula: Number of parking spaces x 3.5 x 1.4, where 3.5 equals average number of passengers per car and 1.4 equals 40% ' overflow parking capacity. 3 Recreational Area was designed for about 4700 users.
e i e . ; 1 TABLE 1-5 ! INDUSTRIES WITHIN 10 MILES OF CLINTON POWER STATION l l No.~0F EMPLOYEES INDUSTRY ,,, (approx.) PRODUCT clinton Illinois . Action Plastics Co. 25 Plastic tubing and dispenser l j , tubing The John Blue Co. 15 Fertilizer and chemical application equipment Clinton Conc' rete Products Co. 4 Cocerete products Clinton Imperial China Inc. 75 Lamps Clinton Packing Co. 4 Heat packing ! Cyrulik Welding 3 Welding, elevator and construction machinery repair l Barbrand, Inc. 7 Fertilizer, liquid and dry l J & E Metal Fabitcators 14 Store fixtures ! Jones Container Co. 2 Corrugated boxes Lobb Printing 3 Printing Marco Chemicals 9 Liquid fertilizers Marco Farm Supply 7 Agricultural fertilizer, liquid and dry McElroy Metal Mill, Inc. 7 Custom roll forming of aluminum siding Miller Container Corp. 25 Cartons and vrappings ( Protec Inc., Mid-west Freight Railroad freight cars, new L4.1 Car Co. Div. .U) 120 . and rebuilt g 'j -
.:c", Revere. Copper & Brass Inc., .
Cooking utensils; stampings; Clinton'Div. 750 tubing eyelets, roll formed shapes, radiator and lockseam a, i. tube; copper tube { l Thompson's Print Shop 3 Printing 8 i , j l Thorp Seed Co. 50 Hybrid corn processing ew . , ; v l Charles Todd Industrial Uniform Industrial uniform laundry ! Services, Inc. 60 and service I wallace Business Forms, Inc. 150 Printing, business forms Barry M. Yeager Co. 7 Terrycloth robes Sources Manufacturer's News, Inc. 1978. National Publishing Corp. 1978 O., i w+ . . . . .
. . . . . 8- ~ r .-V ...U.
S TA8L E-NEAREST RESIDENCE AND GARDEN WITIIIN 5 MILES OF TIIE CLINTON POWER STATION NEAREST RESIDENCE AND GARDEN APPROXIMATE DISTANCE DIRECTION (miles) N 1.4 NNE 1.1
- NE 1.6 ENE 1.4 E 1.2 ESE 3.8 > SE 1.9 1
SSE 2.8 S 2.2 SSW 1.2 SW l.6 Car Ga. Div. . '. 'd : ? m: '1 WSW 1.8 n . . .: -. - t r. _ : nit;- , us-,- ;; .. 3,5 .= ..1 ... :. e y , WNW 1.3 J
. NW 0.7 NNW l.4-m L
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. 3.0 -TRAFFIC' CAPACITY 3.1
_: Road ? Network for Evacuation'
- The road network' planned by local ESDA officials for use during evacuation is a well distributed _ grid of-highways.- All points within the EPZ have readily accessible sturdy highways to depend on. The road-network set up for the city.ofoClinton is also planned-
- to be as expedient as possible.
Roads are in very good shape an'd'in most' cases are equipped with at least,five or six feet of asphalt / grass shoulder. Theiroads-are'very.leveltand straight providing short travel times. The roads are numbered for. reference on Figure'3-1 and are described further in Table 3-1. There are no roadside. obstructions besides the usual light poles and.cornfields twelve to fourteen feet'from the edge of the pavement. The evacuation plan for the City of Clinton as prepared by local Emergency Services and Disaster Agency (ESDA) officials is included as Section 3.2. Clinton is by far the largest population center in the 10 mile EPZ. Use Figures 3-2, pages 1 through 5, with the Clinton plan. 3.2 City of Clinton Evacuation Routes Thefollowing routes are being prepared and so designated as emergency routes out of Clinton in the event of a disaster. They are ..listed clockwise' starting with Zone #1 through f4. Zone il .(DeWitt,, County Court House, North on'Centef and everythin'g East of North Center','Easf on' East Main"and "lU everything North'of East Main.) U.S. 51 North from Clinton 2.3 . Snecial E.a(53 b M hrion Street Extension East pass' Webster-Housing, Units.
'Ill." Route;54" East from"EAstfNorth-Street'"
, . ' ~ ~ " c ';
ancicate gj a f EEs'E'Mdin' Str5et ^ pae d' MdGill"Stredt ' in 68witt'
. County-
~
Zone #2 (DeWitt County Courthouse East on E. Main and everything South of East Main, South on S. Center from the DeWitt County Court House and everything East of South Center)
- a. East Main Street pass Magill Street extension into DeWitt County
- b. East Main Street to M& Gill Street and then
' South to Ill. Route 10 East
- c. -Ill. Route 10 East pass Miller Container-Co.
j d. County Road from 11. Route 10 East heading South located at McElroy Metal Mill.
, 4 - - ~: -w.,
e.- South Madison Street pass Revere Recreation to County Highway #18 West back to U.S. 51 South
, pass Wayside.
Zone #3 (DeWitt County Court House South on South Center and everything West of South Center and then from DeWitt County Court House West on West Main and everything South of West Main). ! a. II. Route 54 West to U.S. 51 South
- b. 11. Route 10 West to U.S. 51 South-
- c. U.S. 51 South from West Main to Decatur
- d. Township Road from U.S. 51 heading West to IL. 54 West to Springfield.
- e. 11. Route 54 West to Springfield l - f. Ill. Route 10 West to Lincoln.
West Main Street to II. Route 10 West to Lincoln g. l l Zone #4 (DeWitt County Court House West to West Main to City Limits and everything North of West Main, DeWitt County Court House North on Center and
- everything West of North Center) l a. West Main'St'eetr out to II. Route 10 West l to Lincoln
- b. Old Lincoln Road from West Main out west into Sunset Drive to West Webster Street and then West pass Willow Street into DeWitt County
- c. West Webster Street pass Willow Drive into l DeWitt County
- d. North Walnut Street pass the Woodlawn Cemetary and then North into DeWitt County to Wapella,
- e. North Walnut Street to North Township Road and then East to U.S. 51 and then North towards
. Wapella ,, , . ..
- f. U.S. 51- North from North Center' Street' to Wapella
- g. West Woodlawn Street to North Center Street then North on U.S. 51' North to Wapella l b. r.etzou m eet u i.uua wu em t pnw n e u.> ter 3.3 Roadway Segment Characteristics ,
). '[
Countyhidhwahs',"rSabi,"ahdmajorStateand" Federal"' highways were inspected by IPC and a description of their ! characteristics is detailed on Table 3-1. The location of these roads are shown on Figure 3-1. Due to the low population density within the EPZ, road capacities are more than sufficient'to handle an orderly evacuation of people within the area. S l
)
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County Hwy 9 21'3" level bi-ttminous 4' grass Route 51 North 23'6" level paved 3-4' grass l' asphalt has center line Route 10(west of Clinton) 23'3" level paved 5'(grass + asphalt has center line Route 54 21'6" level paved 5-6' grass has center line Route to (Eun 22'6" level bittm 5-6' grass has center line County Hwy 18 21'1" level bitta (ditches) winding road a s. il , , s , .. . , f.n ne , County Hwy,15; 21'3" level bitun- 5' grass
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'4.0'IANALYSIS OF EVACUATION TIMES 4.1 Evacuation of the City of Clinton The City of Clinton is located in the WSW and W sectors of the EPZ at about 6.3 miles from the plant. The city is basically the junction of three state and federal highways' allowing for six major routes out of town:
- U.S. Highway 51, North
- U.S. Highway 51, South
- State Highways 10 and 54 West
- State Highways 10 and 54 East For this study, the State Highways 10 and 54 heading East, towards the plant, will not be considered viable egress routes for the city. This leaves four, two-lane highways which could be used to evacuate Clinton to the North, West and South. This study assumes the traffic load is shared equally among these four routes.
There are approximately 8,000 permanent residents in Clinton. We will add an additional 1,000 people who may live outside city limits, may work in the city from ! outlying areas, and may be passing through town at any one time. This is a conservative estimate, taking no l credit for residents that may be out of town when the evacuation request is made. It is assumed, therefore, that the total number of people to evacuate is 9,000. There are approximately 2,500 homes in Clinton. . It can be reasonably assumed that each housebold, on the average, will have and utilize one vehicle during the evacuation; ?This study assumes twice as many vehicles will be used and, thus, conservatively loading traffic routes with 5,000 vehicles.
'l The standaE'd"vehibl'e Will be 20 'fecf long.ir'It' is t
assumed that the average speed of any one vehicle will n ube 10 miles per hour. At this speed, a one car l'engta spacint is considered safe and thus effectively adding 20 feet to the length of the standard vehicle, making it 40 feet. ! 5,000 vehicles equally distributed yields 1,250 vehicles per route or, 1,250 vehicles / route X 40 ft./ vehicle = 50,000 ft./ route l At 52,8000 fph (10 mph) , 50,000 ft. of standard vehicles l will take approximately 57 minutes to pass any one point l on any one evacuation route. Additionally,-the very i s a
- . l l
last vehicle passing this point will have no more than 8 miles to travel to be outside the-EPZ if he took the longest northern route and, thus , adding 48 minutes travel time at 10 mph. The West and Southbound vehicles i will experience a shorter trip to reach the EPZ boundary.
.Therefore,.it is concluded lthat the maximum travel time for any one evacuee willing.to.go would be 105 minutes or less.
The same method was used to calculate the travel time for adverse. weather. The average speed was . taken to be - 5 mph so that the maximum travel time is 210 minutes 2 or less. To develop the total evacuation time, 25 minutes of delay must be added to these figures. 4.2 Evacuation of the Remainder of the EPZ As mentioned in Section 1.2, a determination was made > as 'to the appropriate evacuation route to take for each of 160 sub-areas within the EPZ. The length of these routes were calculated and used with the estimated average evacuation speeds to determine travel times. These calculations and data are shown on Table 4-1. Population counts from zero to five miles in one mile increments are from actual house counts performed in i 1981. Data was unavailable for population and house
- ' count from five miles to ten miles in incremental form, but was available in sector format. A simple land area weighed distribution was applied to increment the 1 available data. Care was taken to ensure the populations
!. of towns were .not evenly distributed throughout the. sector, however. ' These numbers are also found on Table 4-1 and L Figures.4-1 and 4.-2.
. . . . . _ . .. . . - a, .,
4.3 Transient Analysis times for . transients have been estimated for z Evacuation. ths pjbyfrec.resti6nal arensisithin thsiEPZ. 4 Thha.fhrdh[@s areas ~arethe MdscoGtih' State ' Recreation Area, , th , Clinton MaridaL And(Weld 6n' $prinss1Stade Park. ' Pdak
~
ddily"trinsient' populations are used to perform these analyses. By showing that evacuati'ons during peak days can be effected in a timely manner, it can be easily i shown that evacuation times for non-peak days will be even less. 4 Figures 4-3 and 4-4 are provided showing the relative positions of these recreational areas and the road network around them. These areas are located in rural areas with little or no local permanent populations to contend with. A summary of the evacuation times for peak days in these areas is given on Table 4-6.
P 4.3'.1 Peak' Day Evacuation of the Mascoutin State Recreation Area As shown on~ Table 4-5, peak daily recreational user estimates' total 6,982 ' for the ESE, SE, and SSE sectors from 1 to 3 miles in radius from the planc. This area contains the Clinton Marina and the Mascoutin State Recreation Areas. On ' a peak day, these areas would be the most limit-ing of all the recreational areas during an evacuation. By showing that recreationers can vacate these areas in a timely manner, it can be likewise shown that other recreational areas can be cleared expeditiously. Adverse weather conditions are not considered in this case because recreation areas would not be used to the peak degree in such times. ' ' . The total of 6,982 users can be divided between the Clinton Marina and the Mascoutin-State Recreation Areas because each of these facilities has its own mode of egress. Peak users of the Clinton Marina is taken to be 1,356 and for the Mascoutin State Recreation Area, peak is ta' ken to be 5,626. In this case, an average vehicle occupancy factor of 3 was conservatively used bringing the' total of vehicles required to leave the Clinton Marina to 452 and 1876 for the Mascoutin Area. The same methodology is used here as was used for the City of Clinton. That is, the average speed of egress is taken to be 10 mph and the
, effective standard vehicle length,4s 40 feet.
Vehicles leaving th'e Mascoufin Area will exit 10 %
~ :i 2 onto iCounty Highway 14..where they..would-split
- .into two . directions-about half heading North weetner to-DeWittnand half . heading South to Illi6ois ~
~
', In Route d0.',, ;From these points ; traffic" flow can e
apt ed . split again lnto m'any dirsctions brin'ging' vehicles to the EPZ boundary. The most limiting point of traffic and where most queuin8 can be expected to occur is at the intersection of the Mascoutin Area access road and County Highway 14. Vehicles leaving the Clinton Marina will most - likely take the county road South to Illinois Route 10 from where they can split East or West. or continue South to exit the EPZ.
l 'e'
~.
It would take 1876 vehicles 85 minutes to exit the Mascoutin Area onto County Highway 14 and an: additional 60 minutes to exit the EPZ if L , they alected- the longest northern route. . This consi ders their average ' speed to be L 10 mph. Most, however, . will.. experience greater speeds once they leave secondary . roads and . travel on major highways. No credit was taken for this
~
phenomenon'.nor was there credit taken for the double lane exit leaving the Mascoutin Area. , Total travel time for..these~ recreational users' b is therefore calculated as 145 minutes or less. A conservative estimate of 1 hour delay. time is' L used for the Mascoutin- Area which should be more l than-sufficient time for users to begin leaving. !- the area once notification is made. This brings- [ the total evacuation time for the Mascoutin Area ' on a peak day to be no more than 205 minutes. It would take 452 vehicles 21 minutes to exit [ the Clinton Marina onto the county road to proceed South to Illinois - Route 10. An additional. 10 miles of travel would be required in, the most
-limiting route to reach ~the EPZ boundary. Taking no credit for the likely increased speeds on- major:
routes, time needed to exit EPZ would add another hour to the total travel time, bringing it.up to 81 minutes or less. Again, a conservative estimate of 1 hour delay time is used for the Clinton Marina which should be an adequate amount of time for the recreationers to begin vacating the grounds once notification. is made to leave. This brings the total peak day evacuation time'for the Clinton' Marina to no'more L than.141 minutes. ,; 1
-4.3.2 Phak Dhy~ Evacuation of Weldon Springs State Park ~
EEa(dhkbaNE[bff$bIfNb"frSEY3hejhlabhE8'the sb0thwest. istibcaded'Weldon" Springs'StaEa Park, , ' pith'a' peak daily. population of f 4:,,840 as_in.dicated - b'y . Tab le' 4-5 '." It'is assumed"that 'an"auts 6bcupancy -a factor of 3 is realistic for this recreational area. Thus, 1614 vehicles would need to vacate the park grounds if an evacuation was deemed appropriate. Although two park exits are available, it is assumed that only one could be used to be conser-vative. It would take approximately 74 minutes for all the vehicles to leave Weldon Springs.
--, w -
4 Once on the. county roads , . many paths could be
- -taken' to' proceed to the EPZ -boundary. ' For-this l
- examination, 'it is ' assumed that all vehicles will follov ' onen of two routes West to U.S. Highway .51, south. Depending on which route a vehicles takes, an additional seven miles of l travel would .be needed to leave the EPZ. Taking no-credit for the:increasesin_ speed the travelers . would experience once on major routes, it would take an additional 42 minutes ' travel time"at an - i average speed of 10 mph. A delay time of one hour or~ less would be needed, L as a conservative estima e, for transients to begin leaving the park area once notification-is made
.. .. . 1 There fore , the total _ time required to evacuate all the users of Weldon Springs :en a peak day-
, from the EPZ would be 176 minutes or less. i 4.4 Special Facilities Analysis John Warner Hospital in Clinton is the only hospital , in the 10 mile EPZ. It has a 52 bed capacity and is located at the junction 'of Highways 51, 54 and 10. Transport out of the area would be accomplished by cars and ambulance to nearby hospitals in Bloomington, Decatur or possibly Springfield. Time estimated for evacuation is two hours. There is one nursing home located within the EPZ, on the outskirts of Clinton with easy access to Highway 51 north to Bloomington. Time estimate for evacuation of this nursing home is two hours.
-..._m, .. . . ~ . e _.o, .
4 There is r a human resource center in Clinton which again is E is closesinall a very ' tid 'H1'ghways/31f operation ~ working 54 'and"10MThik'facilitf' on '5n "ddt-pa't ient ' basis.
~
~ Persons come to the center,_ located in an old house, for
. counseling hessibns';" Persods"Nould" leave!by^.thbir own vehicles'. YEvacuation"from ' herd .would' be ' himilar' ito a ."5 '
i regular E8sidence a cae and o ono sp<ecial' n.m . i nnestimate e n uism'made. a c < .1u . toi Schools will evacuate by bus directly out of the EPZ. Time estimate on evacuation depends on availability of buses. With a sufficient number of buses, each i school should be able to accomplish evacuation in forty-five minutes to.an hour. 4.5 Analysis of Calculated Travel Times The estimated travel times for the Clinton area and the- - rest of the EPZ are realistic. Although some queuing i
.can be expected to occur in the vicinity of Clinton, i
conservative estimates for traffic loading, population o
+ r w *rvr-v- e w -r+"y *
@' T C 'f'T- I~77 v- * ~
d
count, an'd average travel speed is intended to offset these problemsr Well managed. evacuation planning and implementation will ensure that a smooth transition will come about and that those wishing to vacate .the . area will be able to do so in a timely manner.
' '~
No problems are foreseen during the evacuation of residents living in the rural areas of the EPZ. Although one route was used for each of the 160 sub-areas in calculating travel timee, an evenly spaced system of county roads and highways provide any number of equally-effective routes to the EPZ boundary. This is also true for recreation: area users.
.. _.. _c _,. _ _,
4.6 Estimated Evacuation Times As previously discussed, evacuation time is the sum of the calculated exit time, travel time and the delay time after notification, taken to be 25 minutes. Table 4-2 shows, by one mile increments, the maximum evacuation time that can be expected at that radius and the most restrictive sector (s) affected. The 25 minute delay time is inherent in these figures. Table 4-2 does not show estimated evacuation times for transients, but for only permanent populations. Tran-sient tines are discussed in section 4.3 and are shown on Table 4-6.
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-FIGURE.4-l'~
L POPULATIONS 0-5' mile Actual Count 5-10 mile Land Area Weighted N 18 21 16 19 0 5 14 17 23 4 12 15 4 20 3 10 12 17 25 27
~
25 3 13 14 13 788 20 10 17 19 10 21 26 14 16 3 13 8' 16 10 8 10 3 49 W 90 81 8 8
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~45 77 3255 34 52 3 3 28 8 13 5 16 3 f - 177 -
3 N 3 5 , 58 - 5 .
, .8 j '! . : L; :It i :78 23~ ,
10 4913 * - - -
; i' 12 14 16
- 122 107 e l8 E 13 - 3 13 ' ' ~
136 5 ' ' :i+. . 10 ,_4.- 3' 10 5. , 8 15 I 34 N.6 ,, ,
' C 13 5- y'7 40 23 20 47 16 10
' 13 542 23 54 16 14 26 59 .
15 13 18 16 19 17 20 18 22 20 20 25 22
.1' 28 25 S
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FIGURE.4-2 Il0MES 0-5 mile Actual Count 5-10. mile Land Area' Weighted N 4 8 4 7 10 19 3- 6 9 17 3 6 8 15 13 2 @$ 6 10 11 5 . 25 5 9 5 23 8 256 4 9 17 4 8 5 5 1 10 3 6 4 5 4 1 N 97 3 1 19 3 17 87 76 049 13 15 1 1y tt
- 5 3 71 2 - 6 1 y _
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t 2 '- _ '- 3' . t4 0 5 ' f ' 9n. 5 6 . 7 134, k1),7, 575 86' 48 '
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*E r Ad y MASCOUTIN STATE RECREATION AREA 4 y, '
[' 7 . . '4303 '3 BEACH et3 W
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x v r y .~. 53 j, __ _ wh 106 CLINTON
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FIGURE 4-3 l _ 4 s. MASCOUTIN STATE RECREATION AREA (NOT TO SCALE)
. . _ NOTE: Numbers appearing in the subareas are projected peak j
transient values I'
i CLINTON e SITE
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4 2 4.W y. FIGURE 4-4 __ WELDON SPRINGS STATE PARK - ' ' '< i,.s
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Table 4-1 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 0 to 1 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR POPULATION HOUSE COUNT -LENGTH (minutes) (miles) NORMAL ADVERSE
~N 3 2 :10 24 40 NNE - - - -
NE - - - ENE - - - - E 8 3 10 24 40 ESE - - - - - sg SSE - - - - - S - - - - SSW - - - - - SW - - - - - WSW - - - - - W - - - - - i g a ic. -, WNW - - - - - NW - - - - - NNW 3 1- 10- 24 40 e i ,,
, - i
. Table 4-1 ESTIMATED PE.SIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES.
. RADIUS 1 to 2 MILES -
t EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR' POPULATION HOUSE ~~ COUNT LENGTH (minutes) (miles) NORMAL ADVERSE
.N - - - - -
NNE. 10 4 11' 26.4 44 NE 3 1 9 21.6 36 ENE - - - - - E 3 1 10 24.0 40 ESE - - - - _ SE - - - - _ SSE - - - - - S - - - - - SSW - - - - - SW - - - - - WSW 3 1 12 28.8 48 W 3 1 10 24.0 40 WNW'- 3 1 10 24.0 40-NW 8- 3 9- 21.6 36-NNW!
.) -1 LO L': 'a0 t
Table 4-1
-ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 2 to 3 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR POPULATION HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N 16 6 9 21.6 -36 NNE 3 -1 10 24.0 40 NE - - - ENE 177 71 7 16.8 28 E 58 - 9 21.6 36 ESE - - - - - SE 3 1 9 21.6 36 SSE 10 4 8 19.2 32
.S 3 1 8 19.2 32 SSW - - - - -
SW - - - - - WSW 5 2 12 28.8 48
.W 16 6 11 26.4 44
'WNW :8 '3 '10 24.0 40 iNW 10 .4 9 -21.6 36 iNNW 4 -3 8 19.2 32 4
d
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Table 4 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES
- RADIUS 3 to 4' MILES i
EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR POPULATION HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes) (miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N- 21 '8 8 19.2 32 NNE 26 10 9 21.6 36 NE 3 1 9 21.6 36 ENE: - - - - - E - ESE 13 5 8 19.2 32 SE 8 3 8 19.2- 32 SSE 5 2 8 19.2 32 S 13 5 8 19.2 32 SSW 146 56 10 24.0 40 SW 13 5 11 26.4 44 WSW 5 2 9 21.6 36 W 5 2 9 21.6 36 WNW' 8' 3t 10' 24.0- 4 01 NW 13' 1 8 19.2 32, NNW: :10; 4; 7; 16>. 8. 28
?
Table 4-l' ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 4 to 5 MILES
. EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR POPULATION HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N 13 5 7 16.8 28 NNE 23 9 8 19.2- 32 NE 10 ~4 6 14.4 24
.ENE 13 5 6 14.4 24 E 8 3 7 16.8 28 ESE 5 2 9 21.6 36 SE 13, 5 6 14.4 24 SSE 10 4 7 16.8 28 1
14.4 24 S 16 6 6 SSW 23 9 8 19.2 32 SW 10 4 7 16.8 28 WSW 23 9 7 16.8 28 W 8 3 8 19.2 32 WNW 13 5 '7 16.8 28 NW 10 4 7 16.8 28 NNW l'3 5 ~6 14,4 .24 9 1 a b 1 l l
- - -,e . . - _ . - ,, _ . _ , . - , _
Table 4-1 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 5 to 6 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR
- POPULATION
- HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N- 12 5 6 14.4 24 NNE 14 5 9 21.6 36 NE 14 5 6 14.4 24 ENE 28 11 7 16.8 28 E 10 4 8 19.2 32 i ESE 15 5 6 14.4 24 SE 542 174 6 14.4 24 SSE 14 5' 6 14.4 24 S 16 6 6 14.4 24 SSW 13 6 5 12.0 20 SW 34 12 6 14.4 24 WSW 78 86 5 12.0 20 W 52 56 7 16.8 28 WNW 16 15 6 14.4 24 NW 13 11' 6 14.4 24 NNW 10 2 6 14.4 24
- NOTE: Land Area Weighted Average i
, - .,- - - - - - --n
I
+ i Table 4 l ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 5 to 7 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR -
- POPULATION
- HOUSE COUNT- LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE-N 15 6 6 14.4 24 NNE 17 6 6 14.4 24 NE 17 6 5 12.0 20
~ENE 34 13 5 12.0 20 E 12 5 5 12.0 20 ESE 17 7 5 12.0 20 SE -13 12 5 12.0 20 SSE 17 6 6 14.4 24 S 19 7 5 12.0 20 SSW 15 7 5 12.0 20 SW 40 16 5 12.0 20 WSW 4913 1575 4 ** 9.6 16 W 3255 1049 4 ** 9.6 16 WNW 19 17 5 12.0 20 NW 3 13 5 12.0 20 NNW 12 3 4 9.6 16 i
- NOTE: Land Area Weighted Average
** Does .not include City of Clinton, see Section 4.1 4
1 Tabic 4-l' ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES
, RADIUS 7' to 8 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR '* POPULATION
- HOUSE COUNT LENGTH '(minutes)
(miles) NORMAL. ADVERSE
.N 17 6 4 9.6 16 NNE' 20 8 4 9.6 16 NE 20 8 5 12.0 20 ENE 39 15 4 9.6 16 E 14 5 4 9.6 16 ESE 20 8 4 9.6 16 SE 16 14 5 12.0 20 SSE 20 8 4 9.6 16 S 22 8 4 9.6 16 SSW 18 7 3 7.2 12 SW 47 18- 3 7.2 12 WSW 107 117 3 7.2 12 W 71 76 3 7.2 12
'WNQ 786 256 4 9.6 16
'NW 4 15 3 ' 7..' 2 '12 NNW 14 3 '3 :7..'2 il2 i
- NOTE: Land Area Weighted Average I
4 Tabic 4-1 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 8 to 9 MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR
- POPULATION
- HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N 19 7 h 7.2 12 NNE 23 9 .3 7.2 12 N5 23 9 3 7.2 12 ENE 45 17- 3 7.2 12-E 16 6 3 7.2 12 ESE 23 9 3 7.2 12 SE IS 16 3 . 7. 2 12 SSE 22 9 3 7.2 12 S 25 10 3 7.2 12 SSW 20 8 3 7.2 12 SW 54 21 3 7.2 12 WSW- 122 134 3 7.2 12 W 81 87 3 7.2 12 WNW 25 223 3 7.2 12 NW 4 17 3 7.2 12 NNW 16 4 3 7.2 12 i
- NOTE: Land Area Weighted Average
)
~
- * '~*
Tabic 4-1 ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL EVACUATION TIMES RADIUS 9 to 10 *-MILES EGRESS TRAVEL TIME SECTOR
- POPULATION
- HOUSE COUNT LENGTH (minutes)
(miles) NORMAL ADVERSE N 21 8 2 4.8 -8 NNE 25 10 2 4.8 8 NE 25 10 2 4.8 8 ENE 49 19 2 4.8 8 E 18 7 2 4.8 8 ESE 26 10 2 4.8 8 SE 20 18 2 4.8 8 SSE 25 10 2 4.8 8 S 28 11 2 4.8 8 S,SW 22 9 2 4.8 8 SW 59 23 2 4.8 8 WSW 136 148 2 4.8 8 W 90 97 2 . 4.8 8 WNW 27 25 2 4.8 :8 NW 5 19 2 4.8 18 NNW 18 4 2 4.8 18 I
- NOTE: Land Area Weighted Average ;
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P-TABLE 4-2
' MAXIMUM ESTIMATED EVACUATION TIMES BY RADII (Permanent Population)
-MAX EVACUATION TIME RADIUS- (NORMAL) '(ADVERSE) MOST RESTRICTIVE SECTOR (S)
.0-1 mi 49. min 65 min All 1-2 mi 54 min 73 min' -WSW 2-3 mi ' 54 min 73 min ~WSW-
.3-4 mi 52 min 69 min SW.
r 5 mi 47 min '61 min' ESE I 5,-6 mi 47 min- 61 min UNE
- 6-7 mi -130 min 235 min WSW,W (Clinton) 7-8 mi 37 min 45 min NE,SE 8-9 mi 33 min 37. min All 9-10 30 min 33 min All i
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- s TABLE 4-4 AVERAGE DAILY RECREATIONAL USERS WITHIN
~
10 MILES OF CLINTON POWER STATION DIRECTION IN MILES SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 0-10_ N' O .,3 6 16 0 0' 25 NNE O b 0 0 0 0 0
. NE O . d 0 0 5 0 0 ENE O O O O O 131 131 E O O O 20 43 53 116 ESE O 96 110 14 0 0 220 SE - 0 100 175 0 0 0 275 SSE' 0 20 14 0 0 0 34 S 0 42 119 20 0 0 181 SSW 0 0 30 2 0 0 32 SW 0 0 10 25 0 1,425 1,460 WSW 0 1 43 0 0 0 44
'W . 0 16 3 0 0 0 19
;i .
WNW 10 ,.0 0 .0 0 0 10
- NW 10 0 0 0 0 0 10 NNW .' O 23 0 0 0 0 23
- i TOTAL 20 '301 510 97 43 1,609 -2,580 l
Source: Illinois Power Company, Weldon Springs State Park, Clinton l Country Club, and Arrowhead Acres. . i
V \ l D TABLE 4-5 PEAK DAILY RECREATIONAL USERS WITIIIN 10 MILES OF'CLINTON POWER STATION DIRECTION IN MILES ' SECTOR 0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-10 0-10
- N 0 . 127 53 98 0 0 278 NNE O O O . 0 0 0 0
, NE O O O O 'O O O - ENE O O- 0 0 0 . 0 0 E O O O 53 244 0 297 ESE O 1,313 1,527 53 0 - 0 2,893 SE . 0 1,366 1,420 0 0 0 2,786 SSE 53 1,303 , 53 0 0 0 1,409 S 53 113 106 98 0 0 370 SSW 0 0 106 123 0 0 229 SW 0 0 53 229 0 4,840 5,122 WSW 0 53 415 0 -0 O 468
*W 53 843 0 0 0 0 896 WNW Q3 ,
;53 .s 0 . O u0 0 106 NW -
1,158 0 0 0 0 0 1,158 NNW 53 53 0 0 0 0 106
-__g ..__;_.
TOTAL 1,423 '5,224 3,733 654 244 4,840 16,118 i 9 Source: Illinois Power Company, Weldon Springs State Park, Clinton
. Country Club, and Arrowhead Acres.
l l
TABLE 4-6 PEAK DAY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR MAJOR RECREATION AREAS WITHIN EPZ Delay Exit Travel Evac Time Time Time Time Mascoutin State Recreation Area 60 min 85 min -60 min 205 min
-Clinton Marina 60 min 21 min 60 min 141 min Weldon Springs State Park 60 min 74 min 42 min 176 min where Evacuation Time = Z (Delay Time, Exit Time, Travel Time)
U:31 53 SS 3 t; o G 106 .l
+ ; f.s 7 t
+
4
- 5. 0 OTHER REQUIREMENTS 5 .- l Confirmation of Evacuation
- u. . . - . ..
To confirm that evacuation has taken place per orders of state and local officials, a passive sampling technique is recommended as most expedient. Random telephone polling is preferred oser other methods such as markers, vehicle counting, wardens, and visual confirmation by aircraft. For the 10 miles EPZ a 20 minute estimate for accomplishing this confirmation should be adequate. 5.2 Shelter as a Protective Response Shelter effectiveness is directly related to the ratio . of the dose that may be incurred with shelter to that without shelter. The Dose Reduction Factor (DRF) is a measure of this effectiveness. Separate'DRF's are used to describe radionuclide con-tributions to the thyroid and to the whole body.
- 1) Thyroid DRF - calculated based on ability of radio-nuclides to ingress into shelter structure.
2)- Whole body DRF derived from 3 contributions to radiation exposure. a) gaseous fission product ingress b) cloud gamma c) fallout gamma Gaseous fission product ingress, cloud gammma and fallout gamma are the three important components of any obtained dose. - 5.2.1 Gaseous Fission Product Ingress : The extent to which radioiodine will penetrate a structural shielding facility is dependent on the gross tightness of the structure, ventilation rate, filtration, and chemical / physical properties of the released material and the interacting species. For the rare gases Xe and Kr, most are willing to accept virtually no structural' filtering because of their ine rtness - and stability as gaseous forms.
The three known chemical forms of radiciodine present as airborne gaseous species in power station _ areas during and after handling defective fuel elements are elemental iodine, (1 2 ); hypoidus acid, (HOI); and organic iodides, (CH3 1)- Ratio of the three species would depend on the conditions under which an accidental release might take place. 12 is thought to be the primary form :eleased from uranium-oxide fuel. It-hydrolyzes rapidly in water, generating HOI or~it forms organic iodides through a slower reaction with organic compounds, the relative stability of each-in air increases so (I2) < (HPI) < (CH31) (concentration of) . Probably very little protection would be offered by a structure against the ingress of HOI and CH 1 3 both unreactive gaseous forms like Xe and Kr. 5.2.2 Cloud Gamma Attenuation
,_ Large. structures (e.g. office buildings, multi-story apartment complexes , department stores, etc.) generally would provide significantly more sheltering for whole body exposures than smaller structures such as single family dwellings.
The -difference in thyroid dose protection between small and large structure shelters is not as apparent as for whole body dose, because of the more nebulous correlation of building air change rate than gamma attenuation properties with the general type of structure. The p,rotection against whole body dose decreases 1-inea'rly'with the amount of radiciodine penetrating to the. occupied spaces of a shelter structure. ,
' Fall 6ut ' Gamma 'A'ttenuation ""
~
' ' Y # "
5]. 3
, Many aspects will affect _ protection against fall-out sources, including structural materials, ground roughness, wall , exposure areas (taking into consideration basements and multi-level' dwellings) ,
topographical variations (hillside or flat ground level) , mutual shielding offered by nearby build-ings and structures, and the internal location within a shelter structure. For example, protection factors for. basements may be from 10 to 50; and material shielding of nearby buildings may offer protection factors of from about 1.7 to 2.5. Complex structures such as multi-story office and apartment buildings offer protection factors of
20 or more (away from doors or windows) . See ~~~ Figure Srl for attenuation factor vs. mass thick-ness. For energency planning purposes ~, evacuation potentially provides the greatest margin of protection and should be the primary means of protective emergency action in the event of a gaseous fission product release. However, sheltering. may be the recommended protective action for two reasons:
- 1) Because it is probably less expensive and less disruptive of normal activity than evacuation, shelter may be appropriate under conditions of marginal danger.
- 2) It may be expedient than evacuation. (Since --
the majority of people are already inside some sort of shelter most of the time, mobilization time would be shorter, and the information that must be transmitted to them may be simpler than a set of evacuation instructions. Shel-tering, therefore, may be appropirate if the time before cloud arrival is short, even though subsequent evacuation may be desirable. 5.3
~
Combination Shelter / Evacuation A combination of sheltering and evacuation may be necessary when:
- 1) Cloud is projected to arrive too soon to permit effective evacuation and there are longer-than-expec,ted periods of-exposure.
hnen n- . ca ,- '
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ur uc
- 2) It is desirable to evacuate people in a high dose area,.but shelter those in areas where the sheltering E 'DRF will reduce _the dose _to within the protective action guide *, and thus reduce the possibility of overloading" thel evacuation ~ rotites :m i " m+'; M i-
- Projected dose' to individuals /in general population that warrants protective action following a release of radioactive material.
5.4 Shelter vs. Evacuation List of parameters which need to be considered when. making recommendations:
- 1) Type of release (gaseous, particulate, which isotopes, concentration, curie activity) 4
- 2) Duration of the. release and plume arrival time
- 3) Weather conditions (prevailing wind direction,
. speed, diffusion factors, predicted changes)
- 4) Projected exposures without protective actions
- 5) Protection action guidelines
- 6) Evacuation time estimates
- 7) Special considerations (time of day, road closures, etc.) . See Figure 572, Evaucate or Shelter? -
=-- .
5.5 other Protective Measures 5.5.1 Thyroid Protection The uptake of inhaled or ingested radioiodine by thyroid may be reduced by the ingestion of stable iodine. Potassium Iodide (KI) may be administered to CPS emergency personnel as a protective response. Antihistamines will be stored together with KI for antidote in case of an allergic reaction. The availability, distribution, and use of these blocking agents for public use is ..left entirely . 2 up to the discretion of state planners and health officials. 5.5.2 Milk, Food, Water Controls Use and extent of controls on milk, food, and water in the EPZQ) shall he the responsibility of -- state and local officials as identified in their
, , emergency plans.
5.6 Meteorology n DataISources rc w ti
.- in ac. s
,' m ct 2 :i ng action eaice . mud tieus reduce 'm possibilio of The onsite meteorological, monitoring : program began at the Clinton Power Station site on April 13, 1972.' Data from.-this . installation, have :been used in preparation ofoa the local meteorological sunmaries.. These data are from a 5-year period of record (April 13, 1972 through April 30, 1977) and, therefore, can be considered as being represent-ative of long-term site meteorology.
5.6.1 Normal and Extreme Values of Meteorological Parameters Wind Summaries Detailed wind records, suitable for the preparation of wind roses, are available from the plant site for April 1972 through April 1977. Monthly and period . of-record wind roses were constructed for
.. .. ' l
, the 33-foot (10 meter) level of the onsite meteorological tower. The period-of-record wind rose is presented in Figure 5-3.
Seasonal variations are evident from the monthly data. Winter months showr generally higher wind speeds, fewer calms and more west-northwest winds than do the summer months. Winds from.the south-southeast through west-northwest tend to dominate in most months. For the peried-of-record, the following frequencies of occurrence were observed at the Clinton Power Station Site for the specified wind speed intervals: Wind Speed Percentage of Occurrence (Meters per second)
<0.3 0.3%
0.3 to 1.4 7.7% 1.5 to 3.0 28.2% 3.1 to 5.0 30.7% ,_ ;_.
~
5.1 to 8.0 23.7%
>8.0 9.4%
There were two occurrences of persistence of wind direction for 33 hours (the longest persistence ob served) . These occurred in two sectors, the south-southwest and the northeast. Temperatures Temperatures at the Clinton Power Station meteor-ological monitoring site were measured at the 10-meter level of the tower. The average daily temperature for the period of record is 10.50C m 3 7 t (50. 90F) . The absolute maximum is 35.20C (95.40F) and the absolute minimu n is -28. 80C (-19. 80F) .
' ?. Period-of-record and composite monthly summaries of onsite temperature data are presented in nnsi Tables' 5--li through 5-3. eri n e ncn-am he -
Tb -
~
en < u : Atmospheric Moisture c.. u s. . n . . .cen" m Relative Humidity l The relative humidity for a given moisture content of the air is inversely proportional to the temper-ature. A maximum relative humidity usually occurs l during . the early morning hours, and a minimum is ! typically observed in the midafternoon. For the i annual cycle, the lowest humidities occur in mid-spring and the highest in the winter. Table 5.4 represents a relative humidity summary for the Clinton Power Station. [
. Wet Bulb . . . ,
.e ~.
_ n . The wet bulb temperature is not as strong a function of the ambient temperature as the relative humidity and is used for evaporative cooling system modeling studies. The . we t bulb temperature is defined to be the temperature to which an air parcel may be cooled by evaporating water into it -at constant pressure until it~ is saturated. All latent heat utilized in the pro-cess is supplied by the air parcel. Dewpoint Temperature, Dewpoint temperature is a measure of absolute humidity in the air. It is the temperature to which the air must be cooled .to cause condensation,
' assuming pressure and water vapor content remain constant.
Precipitation l The average yearly precipitation for the period-of-record for the Clinton Power Station Site is 25.47 inches. The months of March and June are the wettest; December, January and February are the driest. 1
- F.og Fog is an aggregate of minute water droplets suspended in the atmosphere near the surface of I
the earth. According to international definition, i fog reduces visibility to less,than 1 kilometer 1 (0.62 mile) . , According to observing practice in . the-Uni _ted States,.; ground _ fog is.a; fog.that.. hides less ; than 0.6,of the 1skyc.and doess - not. extend,tosp) the base _of any_ clouds.,that may lie above;it. Ice fog is.. fog composed of, suspended particles of-ice. It uguallyt.gqcurgnin_.hightigtitudese.inecalm, clear
; weathery.at temperatures below -200F and increases in frequency as temperature decreases (Huschke 197.0). . , p. , ,
Since local data are not available to assess ~the fog statistics at Clinton, data are presented for Springfield and Peoria. Fog is a very local phenomenon; thus, these data should be considered only as regional estimates. The average number of days during which heavy fog (visibil4ty less than % mile) occurs is as follows (U.S. Department of Commerce) : r -.
i
. 8 Springfield Peoria January 2 3 February 3 3 March 2 2 April 1 1 May- 1 1 June % 1 July 1 1 August 1 1 '
September 1 1 October 1 1 November 2 2 December 3 3 Year 18 20 The yearly average is 18 days at Springfield and 20 days at Peoria; the highest occurrence of fog at both locations is in the winter months. Peoria shows a higher frequency of fog in all months than Springfield. The long-term annual average percent of hourly observations with any intensity of fog for Peoria and Springfield are 11.3% and 9.1% respectively. The occurrence of prolonged periods of fog is also greater for Peoria. Although fog is generally a very local phenomenon, expected occurrences at the Clinton Power Station should be within the range represented by the two stations. Operation of the station will influence the local micrometeorology as a result of dischurging warm water into the cooling lake. The principal meteor-ological effect of this will be to produce a steam fog over the lake when cold. air,(410F.or less)n moves over the significantly warmer.(S590F.or_., higher) . lake-water. The rate of condensation of - evaporated water vapor (and thus the formation of of a,teami fog).. Will be . greatest at the,, lower ambient c air .. temperature; associated' withy the winter emonths. With heavy steam fog and relatively light wind speeds (s2 meters per second-5 mph or less) , noticeable drift of the steam fog off the lake surface is possible. Icing caused by condensed water vapor from the lake will have a primary effect on vertical surfaces ' adjacent to the lake shores. Horizontal surfaces will accumulate much less rime. Observations of icing conditions from the Dresden Nuclear Power Station in Illinois indicate that icing on horizon-tal surfaces is not a significant problem beyond the first 200 feet from the edge of the lake.
Atmospheric Stability .- For estimates of average- dispersion over extended periods, the joint probability of occurrence of wind speed, wind direction, and atmospheric stability must be known. These probabilities, or frequencies, have been generated from onsite data using the vertical temperature gradient to estimate atmospheric stability as per Regulatory Guide 1.23 and then relating these stability data to the variability of the horizontal wind. The following data summarize the precent frequencies of occurrence for each stability class (determined from the temperature gradient) recorded at the Clinton Power Station site : A B C D E F G 4.34 3.58 5.38 40.10 26.52 10.93 8.88 Unstable (A,B,C) 13.30% Neutral (D) 40.10% Stable (E,F,G) 46.33% The combination of E stability and calm winds (<0. 3 mps) occurred 0. 06% of the time; F and calm, 0.06% of the time; and G and calm 0.12%. 5.7 Topographical Description Figure Sr4 is a topographic map of the area within 5 miles of the site. Figure 179 shows topographic cross -- - sections'in each of the 16 compass directions radiating - from the site. The cross hatched sections represent the areas fillediin.byhthe; creation of'theicooling: lake. ;The station is located at . an elevation' of -approximately 735 feet MSL.tcWithinnthe 5-mile radiusp noilanddelevation is above 760 feet or below 640 feet. ~Much of this modes- or relief is tdueeto the shallowevalleys-surrounding . the North; Fork of Salt . Creek:.and. SaltvCreek. wTheselivalleys r formt the
~
boundarius' of the Clinton ' Power ' Station's' cooling lake (Lake Clinton) . , The surface of Lake Clinton is 680 feet MSL. Thus a large portion"of the topographical relief in the immediate area has been filled by the lake. 5.8 Hydrological Network Figure 5.5 shows the Sangamon River basin network and - surrounding cities.
9
. .' O 5.9 Sources of Delay in Mobilization Daytime - Close offices Shut down farms Load vehicles Close down manufacturing processes
. :c Nighttime - Wake and. dress Load vehicles Close down manufacturing processes Delay time for rural area is larger than that for an urban area due to longer shut down time necessary for farms and considerably. lower population density.
Delay time estimated for the CPS EPZ is 25 minutes and for the recreational areas, delay-time is taken_to be 1 hour or less and reported in section 1.2. a - - e a e # k .
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ONSITE WIND ROSE FOR 10-METER LEVEL
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TABLE 5-1 __ i ONSITE TEMPERATURE MEASURED AT 10-METER HEIGHT (All Values in Degrees Centigrade) Average Average Absolute Absolute Average Daily Daily 1-Hour 1-Hour Month. Daily Maximum Minimum Maximum Minimus January -5.1 -1.3 -8.9- 15.5 -28.8 February -1.3 1.9 -4.4 15.8 -23.6 March 5.9 10.5 1.6 25.5 -15.1 April 11.4 16.7 6.1 29.3 -6.5 May 16.4 , 21.2 11.2 32.1 0.0 June 21.2 26.1 16.0 33.0 5.0 July 23.6 28.4 18.5 35.2 8.1 August 22.1 26.8 17.4 23.2 9.1 September 17.7 22.8 12.7 33.3 0.8 October 11.9 17.1 ' 6.9 30.0 -4.8 November 4.5 824 0.8 23.0 -15.8
~
- i Decenser, ,3 '- 2.3 1.'3 :
-5.9 i- i7 .'8. -23.8 Period of l =,
, .__ > . r. , s ,-
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Record (1972d
.;15.0 6.0 35.2 -28.8 1977) K '
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s- $ , TABLE 5-2 ONSITE HOURLY TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION 32.2* C 0.0* C. -12.2* C -17.8' C or More or Morp or Less or Less Hrs. Hrs. I Month Mrs. % Hrs. I January (0) 0.0 (2628) 72.5 (730) 20.1 (225) 6.2 February (0) 0.0 (2019) 60.5 (203) 6.1 (48) 1.4 March (0) 0.0 (808) 21.9 (19) 0.5 (0) 0.0 April (0) 0.0 (188) 4.7 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 May (0) 0.0 (1) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 June (8) 0.2 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 July (67) 1.9 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 August (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 September (3). 0.1 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 October (0) 0.0 (82) 2.3 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 November (0) 0.0 (948) 26.4 (28) 0.- 8 (0) 0.0 i , ,
- e. .,
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-(56) 1.5 December 3 (0) d.0 (2414') '65.9 (302) 8.2 Period of- (78) 0.2 (9088)a 21.0 (1282) 3.0 (329) 0.8
- e. . Record (1972-1977)
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1 DGP i' (' TABLE - ~ 5- 3 q I O _NSITE DAILY TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION l
'32.2' C 0.0* C -12.2' C -17.8* C.. .i I
i or More or Less or Less or Loss Days i Days P. Days : Days i. Month 15.7
~
January (0) 0.0 (132). 86.3 (55) 35.9- (24) February (0) 0.0 (116) 82.3 (21) 14.9 (6)~ 4.3
~
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l-April (0) 0.0 (27) 16.2 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0-stay
~
.(0) 0.0 (1) 0.6 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 June. (3) 2.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 i
July (15) 10.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 l August (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 (0)' 0.0 I September (1) 0.7 (0) O'. 0 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 October (0) 0.0 (15) 9.9 (0) 0.0 (0) 0.0 l November (0) 0.0 (73) 48.7 (3) 2.0 (0) 0.0 l December (0) 0.0 (129) 83.8 (29) 18.8 (8) 5.2
- l. .
! Period of (19) 1.0 (558) 30.5 (110) 6.0 (38) 2.1
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( W ch. - r. BIBLIOGRAPHY-o - Evacuation of Milwa'6kee: "' Study done by'Wilbur Smith & Associ~ates - 4',, 265 Church Street - New Haven, Conn. , November 1954' o Protective Action Evaluation, Part I The ~ Effectiveness of Sheltering as 'a Protective Action Against Nuclear Accidents Involving Gaseous Releases EPA Document 520/1-78-0001A .
- Protective Action Evaluation, . Part II . ,. ,
, 3, _. _ . , . . _ _
Evacuation and Sheltering as Protective Actions Against Nuclear _. : _ Accidents Involving Gaseous Releases EPA Document 520/1-78-0001B
- Evacuation Risks - An Analysis -
I. Hans and T. Sell EPA Document 520/6-74-002
- Transportation and Traffic Engineer's Handbook 1976 Edition ,
- Clinton Power Station Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR)
I- e Clinton Power 4Stdtio'n Eny'ir'onhientalu4 Reportanc '10.perating f0 Licenseis>' ' . State (ER-OLS)'2"30 , C':' -;
"S'W.ly y,..w:
s ') 1
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t .i ., .i , O t3 !I ~ 1. 2113 4 -*'*-
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.. c. T..;.
. ,c i, U- g ) 2 '. .. .. ~ .J <v. . . y e ,_ ! _.-.-
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