ML20010C054
| ML20010C054 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 10/10/1980 |
| From: | Bernero R NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES) |
| To: | Herrold W INSTITUTE OF ELECTRICAL & ELECTRONICS ENGINEERS |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20010C048 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8108190064 | |
| Download: ML20010C054 (8) | |
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s OCT 101980
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!!r. William G. Herrold IEEE Inc.
Suite 603 1111 19th Street. IM Washington, D. C.
20335 j
Subject:
Foms For :: REP Grants Daar !!r. Ucrrold:
Please Attached are the preapplication foms for the NREP grants.
fill them out based on your best understandings and postulations of I unuld like to receive i
number of nectings, length of project, etc.
the foms back in about 2 weeks so that I can take some internal action t
before the Steering Co.nittee mets.
i Sincerely, i
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i Robert 14. Dernero, Director I
Division of Systens and Reliability Pesearch Office of fluclear Regulatory Research
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Enclosure:
As stated cc w/o enc 1:
R. Gowen, IEEE S. Levine, Nils I
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3 m DEVELOPMENT OF A METHOD FOR SYSTEMATIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENTS OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS 1.
BACKGROUND Since the completion of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) the NRC has been exploring ways to systematically apply probabilistic analysis to nuclear power plants. The NRC, in its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREP) which is now underway, is developing and giving trial use to a procedures guide which could be the basis for systematic analysis of all nuclear power plants, a National Reliability Evaluation Procram (NREP). Before settling on any procedures guides for such a broad under-taking the NRC is interested in obtaining the advice and participation of many competent parties, including the nuclear industry and probabilistic analysis experts from within and without the nuclear industry.
Thus the NRC seeks to initiate and support a project to develop a procedures guide, a method for systematic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants.
2.
THE PROJECT The project envisioned is to develop a Procedures Guide for the systematic application of probabilistic and reliability analysis to nuclear power plants. This Procedures Guide is expected to define the acceptable metho-dology for performance of such studies.
The Procedures Guide is expected to address the following subject areas:
(1) system reliability analysis, (2)accidentsequenceclassification,(3)frequencyassessmentforclasses of accident sequences, (4) estimation of radiologic release fractions for core melt accident sequences, and (5) consequence analysis.
For each of these subject areas, the Procedures Guide should delineate (1) acceptable ~
analytic techniques, (2) acceptable assumptions and modeling approximations including the treatment 1of statistical data, common cause failures and human errors, (3) treatment of uncertainty, (4) acceptable standards for documentation,and(5)qualitycontrol. The Procedures Guide is expected to define a practical scope of analysis for such systematic review con-i ducted in the next few years. Thus, the Procedures Guide might recommend omission, simplification, or postponement of some elements of a complete analysis.
If it does, the Procedures Guide may o*r may not include' specific guidance on when or how to address these elements later.
The Guide may be adopted and modified 'under other auspices later, but this project will end 1
with the first publication of tta Procedures Lide.
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y a.
, The NRC sees 'this situation as a unique opportunity to use the resources of two technical societies, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers-(IEEE) and the American Nuclear Society (ANS), to develop and review statements of useful PRA methodology and recommend applications. The technical society activities envisioned are two conferences linked by a series of workshops which will prepare ~ material for the conferences. The IEEE is seen as the principal host of the first of these conferences, the Review Conference, because their membership and ability to contribute spans not only the nuclear industry but' other industries which have used probabilistic-and reliability anlaysis for some time. The ANS is seen as the principal host of the second of these conferences, the Topical Conference, since their membership pervades the. nuclear establishment. The ANS is uniquely able to bring the widest range of views with nuclear industry expertise to bear on the matter.
The NRC would work directly with each of the two technical societies supporting-and cosponsoring activities specifically related to this project. The societies would be expected to use their resources to obtain the attention and participation of technically qualified parties. The NRC, with Steering Committee advice, may select a time or times in the course of this project to make materials available for general public comment through other channels such as publication in the Federal Register, etc.
3.
POLICY ACTIVITIES The activity planned to develop a Frocedures Guide for probabilistic analysis is premised on the expectation that the use of such a Procedures Guide would be systematically undertaken in the nuclear power industry and that the results of such analyses would be used in regulatory decisionmaking.
Neither NRC nor the owners of the nuclear plants can or would delegate their policy setting responsibilities to others. Therefore, the NRC is expected to continue to develop specific policies on the extent and manner in which probabilistic analysis will be used in the regulatory process. The nuclear plant owners are expected to pursue resolution of these policy issues as well, operating individually and through the Atomic Industrial Forum (AIF), through its Policy Committee on Nuclear Regulation and its subordinate committees and subcommittees. The effectiveness of the preparation and use of the Procedures Guide depends heavily on timely policy input to the technical effort. Therefore, it is important that both NRC and the industry pursue resolution of these policy issues through normal channels as'well as by dedicating persons to participate in this technical society effort who are significantly involved in resolution of these policy issues.
4.
ORGANIZATION The organization of this project 4s intended to enable the NRC and the nuclear industry to work closely with the two technical societies in cosponsoring their activities in a coordinated scheme of action.
The project will be h.
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' directed by a Steering Comittee under the joint chairmanship of two repre-sentatives of the technical societies, the IEEE and the ANS. The principal work of developing technical documents for the project will be performed by a project Technical Comittee.
Each of the conferences is expected to have its own conference committee.
The Steering Committee, excludi'g the two co-chairmen, is drawn from different sources as follows:
Affiliation Number of Members NRC 3
ANS 2
AIF 1
Other Nuclear Industry 4
i The Steering Committee will set its final membership. At its discretion, it may include in its number the chairman of the project Technical Committee and the chairmen of the conference committees when they have been chosen by their respective professional societies. The chairman and the members of the Technical Comittee wil' be chosen by the Steering Committee. The Tech-nical Committee is expected to include about seven or eight specialists who have strong technical knowledge of both nuclear power plant analysis and probabilistic and reliability analysis techniques.
These experts will be drawn from the nuclear industry, the national laboratories, and the NRC.
In addition, as directed by the Steering Committee, the Technical Committee will be augmented from time to time by additional members, drawn from non-nuclear industry and government experts in risk assessment methodologies.
They will be assisting the Technical Committee to develop realistic descriptions and evalu-ations of candidate probabilistic analysis methods as well as reviews of pertinent experience in the usa of probat,ilistic and reliability analysis for consideration by the Steering Comittee and the technical society meetings.
It is expected that, under the Steering Committee's direction, the augmented Technical Committee will review the procedures for PRA which have been or are being used in i.he nuclear and non-nuclear fields and draft the Procedures Guide described in 2. above. When the Procedures Guide has been sufficiently developed, it will undergo peer review in the IEEE sponsored Review Conference.
The Review Conference is expected to draw participants from the nuclear industry, from tha research ccmmunity, from prcfessional societies, and from government. The Review Conference is expected to use a suitable choice of format to discuss:
(1) status reports of recent PRA activities such as the NRC's IREP, the Zion / Indian Point Study, the Oconee/NSAC review, etc., (2) PRA applications and experience in non-nuclear settings, (3) implications of use of PRA, in the regulatory context, and (4) results
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of the Technical Comittee's work on PRA methodologies with special emphasis on new approaches.
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From time to time either before or after the Review Conference the Steering Comittee may direct that drafts of the Procedures Guide be circulated to other reviewers for technical coment.
Similarly, the NRC may choose to circulate drafts of the Procedures Guide to the general public for infor-mation and comment at suitable times.
' After the Review Conference the Technical Comittee will resume drafting of the Procedures Guide. The Procedures Guide, and the bases for its form and methods will be reviewed again at workshops and the Topical Conference sponsored by the ANS.
It is expected that the Topical Conference will include reports on many PRA projects, technical issues in PRA, and policy issues in PRA, as well as a suitable format for discussion and review of the Procedures Guide.
Presumably, the Steering Committee and the Technical Committee will meet again after the Topical Conference to incorporate the comments obtained there. When the Procedures Guide is finished the project will be completed.
The Procedures Guide is not expected to be an officially endorsed product of either of the technical societies; it will not have gone through the rigorous and usually longer consensus process as would be the case in the development of a national standard. The Procedures Guide will be instead a product of the Steering Committee, an ad hoc group acting in concert with but independent of the two technical societies.
The members of the Steering Committee are chosen in part because of their normal professional affiliation but act in the Committee as individuals. The members' acts in Comittee do not represent the official positions of their agencies.
No agency or organization, by the commitment of resources to this project is considered to be adopting or endorsing the resulting Procedures Guide. At the end of the project the Procedures Guide will be published to ensure its availability for critique and endorsement on its own merits.
5.
SUPPORT The two professional societies will act as secretariat for or sponsor the activities of this project under separate support agreements with the NRC.
In general, the IEEE will sponsor and administer the Review Conference, the IEEE participation in the Steering Comittee, and the non-nuclear industry contributions to the work of the Technical Comittee. The ANS will sponsor and administer the Topical Conference and provide amdinistrative rupport for the Steering Committee and the Technical Comittee, providing meeting rooms, working facilities and whatever other physical support services are required. The final division of responsibility will be made by the Steering Committee.
Persons designated to partit.ipate in the Steering Committee and the
'echnical Comittee will be expected to make a substantial commitment of their time.
It is expected that the Technical Comittee will meet for one week every six to eight weeks during the first six months of this project. The nuclear industry and NRC participants will be expected to devote about 20% of their working time to the project. The chairman of the Technical Comittee and technical support staff will likely spend about half time on the project.
Consultants will work as required.
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6.
SCHEDULE It-is a-goal that the entire' project will-be" completed in,early 1982, aboutzl5. months _ after the initial meeting of the Steering Committee.
..The important segments of the schedule. include:- (1) about five months R
for initial drafting of the Procedures Guide; (2) an additional five months for review, redrafting and the Review-Conference, and (3) a' final five months for a final redrafting, review, the Topical Conference, and final changes...The Steering Committee is expected to set a realistic schedule considering this goal.
The proposed schedule has been established based on the time required to complete the technical effort, assuming that major policy issues which can affect the direction of the work can be resolved in parallel and on a schedule which provides for timely input to the technical effort. 'It
.c apparent that this may present difficulties due to the complexity of the issues involved. ' All parties will dedicate themselves to the principle-that such a schedule can be maintained, since it is clear _that the proposed schedule is sufficient for both the. technical work and the attendant ' policy discussions.
7.
PARTICIPANTS The following participants have been tentatively designated:
STEERING COMMITTEE Guy A. Arlotto U.S. Nuclear 1 Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Office of Standards Development Washington, DC 20555 Robert M. Bernero U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)-
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Washington, DC 20555 John Boettger Public Service Electric & Gas (PSEGj 80 Park Plaza T-16D Newark, NJ 07101' Kenneth Canady Duke Power Company.
P.O. Box-33189 Charlotte, f'C 28242 Y
STEERING COMMITTEE (CONT.)
Malcolm L. Ernst U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation Washington, DC 20555 Richard J. Gowen, Co-Chairman V.P., Dean of Engineering South Dakota School of Mining and Technology Rapid City, SD 57701 Jack W. Hickman Division Supervisor Nuclear Fuel Cycle Systems Safety Sandia National Laboratories Division 4412 Albuquerque, NM 87185 Robert E. Larson Systems Control, Inc.
1801 Page Mill Road Palo Alto, CA 94303
' Saul Levine, Co-Chairman NUS Corporation 4 Research Place Rockville, MD 20850 James F. Mallay Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC)
P.O. Box 10412 Palo Alto, CA 94303 Edward P. O'Donnell Ebasco Services, Inc.
2 World Trade Center 89th Floor New York, NY 10048 Sava I. Sherr Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, Inc. (IEEE) 345 East 47th ?treet New York, NY 10017 Wayne L. Stiede Commonwealth Edison l
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72 West Adams Street P.O. Box 767 Chicago, IL 60690
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~ STEERING COMITTEE (CONT.)
Alfred 'Torri Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc.
-17840 Skypark Boulevard Irvine, CA 92714.
Ian B. Wall Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 3412 Hillview Avenue-Palo-Alto, CA 94303 Edwin Zebroski Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC)
Electric Power Research Institute P.O. Box 10412 Palo Alto, CA 94303 i
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