ML20009A120

Problem of Human Intrusion:Towards Resolution of Uncertainty

ML20009A120
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Issue date:	06/25/1981
From:	Cameron F NRC OFFICE OF STANDARDS DEVELOPMENT
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NUDOCS 8107080554
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THE PROBLEM OF HUMAN INTRUSION: TOWARDS A RESOLUTION OF UNCERTAINTY t-g Francis X. Cameron g

Nuclear Regulatory Commission G-JUN 2 3 gggt*

Waste Management Standards Branch

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j. it Office of Standards Development v spe Y

Washington, DC 20015 p

s ABSTRACT Isolation of high-level radioactive waste over long periods of time requires protection not only from natural events and processes, but also from the deliberate or inadvertent activities of future societies. This paper evaluates the likelihood of inadvertent human intrusion due to the loss of societal memory of the repository site.

In addition measures to prevent inadvertent intrusion, and to guide future societies in any decision to deliber-ately intrude into the repository are suggested.

l INTRODUCTION In addition to the uncertainties regarding the knowledge of the

_ physical factors relating to long-term containment of radioactive waste, there has been a concern over the uncertainty of human behavior in rela-tion to the repository. [1] One major aspect of this concern is the possibility of human intrusion, either inadvertent or deliberate, into the buried waste at som time in the future.

Inadvertent or accidental intrusion is based on the assumption that no institutional control remains at the site, that all physical markers onsite have disappeared, and that all public records and social memory of the site have been lost.

Some comentators have also questioned the ability of future societies to decipher the message contained or, site markers and in sita records. [2]

Inadvertent intrusion could then occur as a result of search for minerals, curiosity over the heat sourc0 or as a result of the search for scientific knowledge.

Deliberate or intentional intrusion is based on the assumption that future generations will make a conscious decision to breach the repository in order to recover the high-level waste itself, as a mineral associated with the site. A further assumption would be the potential attractiveness of the site as a target for terrorists and saboteurs.

I would also note that the concern over human intrusion is not only limited to high-level radioactive waste, but is also of concern in the disposal of low-level radioactive waste, particularly sir:ce the shallow land burial makes the possibility of a breach easier than in the case of a geologic j

repository. The remainder of this paper will discuss the validity of the l

various assumptions on which the human intrusion scenario is premised, with 0107080554 810625 PDR MISC I

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the objective of reaching some conclusions on the likelihood of human i

intrusion occurring.

ANALYSIS Most of our recent history is based on records that have been passed I

down from generation to generation, and the history of earlier periods is based on writings which hav'e been recovered through archeological excava-i tion. However our earliest written records are only about 5,000 years old l

and human development began considerably before that.

In addition, some of the societies that had writing used it for only very limited purposes, or else they wrote on materials that have not survived. [3] As a result, adequate historical documentation is.sometimes dependent on other sources than writing, such as oral tradition and physical artifacts. Before the i

invention of writing, the accumulated knowledge of a civilization was transmitted from one generation to another b Much of this

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oral record was eventually written down [4] y word of mouth.

and thus served as a mechanism for preserving knowledge of the ancient world.

The ancient Greeks collected the accounts of warfare and political practices and the expedi-tion against Troy, for example, was the basis for Homer's Illiad and Odyssey. Although these epics were eventually written down, they began as a part of the oral tradition. [5] In fact the site of the ancient City of Troy was identified by the use of Greek tradition and the details in s

theHomericpoems.[6] Similarly, the histories of the ancient Hebrew narrators were eventually incorporated into the Old Testament..The Celtic bards, Anglo-Saxon scops, Scandinavia scalds, German minnesingers, and the troubadours of France are 'all prime examples of the oral tradi-tion.

In primitive societies of more recent times, the spoken word was used to guide future generations through birth, death, marriage, hunting, and harvest.

In Polynesia, verbal transmission was carefully regulated and was extremely accurate. [7] The Harepo of Tahiti, the Tuhuna of the Marquesas Islands, and the Rogo Rogo of the Gambier Islands all were trained by the priests and were required to pass examinations on the retentiveness of their memories. The Dahomeans utilized the unique recordkeeping system of e0 pointing female officials to remember what their male counterparts did. The Shamans of the North American. Indians were entrusted with the knowledge and transmission of sacred texts, as well as magic formulas for treating sickness and for successful hunting.

The critical point that emerges from this discussion of the oral tradi-tion is that even before writing, records were kept and infomation was transferred from generation to generation, and this information survived to later be incorporated into written records. [8]

Although the oral tradition was successful in a number of instances for passing knowledge on to future generations, the key development in terms of expanding the human ability to communicate and transmit knowl-edge to the future was the advent of writing and printing. The earliest known writing, cuneifom, is credited to the Sumerians, who lived in Southern Mesopotamia around 4000 B.C.

The use of cuneiform was spread by the Assyrians, Babylonians, and other people of the Near East, and has brought us knowledge of a number of complex and highly developed cultures.

I At approximately the same time that cuneiform was being developed, the Egyptians started the writing form known as heiroglyphics.

The earliest

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i known examples date back to 3000 B.C. and have supplied us with extensive knowledge of ancient Egypt. The development of parchment suitable for writing on both sides gave rise to the copying Jof numerous manuscripts for the libraries of the Hellenistic World.

In Europe during the Middle Ages the church became the protector and repository of knowledge.

Christian

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doctrine was systematized and recorded at this time and many monastaries contained scriptoriums where highly skilled monks would copy and recopy sacred texts, as well as historical, literary and philosophical writings.

The birth of the great universities of Europe in the 13th Century stimulated a new demand for books and the universities established their own manu-script copy centers. With.the increased use of printing in the 15th Century, the widespread communication of knowledge became possible. This was the dawn of the modern era of comunications. [9]

r The historical record provides us with many precedents for the

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. survival of highly complex information over long periods of time.

From as early as 3000 B.C. onward abstract information in the areas of. religion, science, mathematics and engineering has been transmitted to future generations. [10] We have extensive knowledge of ancient civilizations through the survival of books and written records such as:

- Akkadian - Sumerian dictionaries;

- Hammurabi's Code;

- the extensive records of Ancient Egypt;

- the Torah of the Old Testament;

- records of Minoan civilization of Crete;

- the great books.of Greece and Rome: Homer, Plato, Demosthenes, Thucydides Herodotus. Vergil, Lucretius, and many others;

- manuscripts and texts from ancient China;

- Mayan books, such as the Dresden Codex.

There are also many examples of books and records that have survived from the earliest days of Western civilization [11] including records that have been kept continuously for centuries:

- the tax and land ownership records of England that have been kept since 1066 A.D.;

- the archives of the English courts maintained since 1156 A.D.

with very few gaps;

- the specific legal rules of many European nations; [12]

- the complex body of Church doctrine;

- the record of the development of research science from the Middle Ages; [13]

All of this information from the ancient world and from modern civilization, has survived a wide range of material and manmade hazards -

fire, war, weather, natural disasters, negligence and willful destruction, Even during the so-called " Dark Ages" in Europe, Christian monastaries served as centers of enlightenment and were responsible for the preserva-tion of many varieties of information.

In addition, cultures flourished

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in other parts of the world. [14] In other words the " Dark Ages" was a 1

localized phenomenon.

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There have been cases where information has not been passed down to us from the past. We don't have the answers to such questions as:

- who built the Megaliths?

- how were the pyramids constructed?

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- what caused the disappearance of the Mayans, the Olmecs, and the Aztecs?

- who were the Tiahuanaco's, Indians, builders of fortress cities in the Andes before the time of the Incas?

- who were the Etruscans?

- what was the purpose of the huge diagrams made by the Nazca Z ~

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Indians of South America j

- who were the " mound M1ders" of North America?.

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Although we don 5 'a'sif utknow the answers to these questions,

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l because no written records provide us with this information, we at least possess knowledge of the culture of these societies, as well as knowl-edge of the site itself, just as the culture of Rome and Greece, and the site of Rome and the Acropolis were not forgotten during the Dark Ages.' Many of these so-called " Lost Civilizations" - the Mayans, the Khmers of Angkor Wat, the Incas of Machu Picchu - were not discovered by i

the outside world until centuries after they were built.

However, the local natives did know about them and in fact, provided the information that eventually led to the discovery of these sites. [15] When archeo-

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logists were digging at a hill called South Glastonbury Castle in England,.

the possible site of King Arthur's Camelot, one old man came up and asked them anxiously if they had come to release Arthur! [16] The memory of the site had lived on in local legends 'for centuries.

As mentioned.previously, ancient legends also led to the discovery of the city of Troy.

In other words,- these sites were not completely forgotten and their discovery was not inadvertent and fortuitous.

McNiel, an eminent historian, compares civilizations to mountain ranges:

...it is only within the frame of geological potleontology and universal history that mountains and civilizations rise and On shorter time scales, they constitute enduring pass away.

landmarks."[17]

He went on to show how enduring civilizations were, by comparing a culture map of Eurasia as it existed in 500 B.C. with the same map 2000 years later. The map was essentially the same, the fundamental N-cultural structure unchanged over.80 generations. Although the institu-tions within these civilizations may change or cease to exist, the specialized function of an institution, for example, information pre-servation and transfer, and the body of critical information to be preserved, can survive throughout the existence of the civilization.

Tht; longevity of human institutions has been a major issue in the disposal of high-level radioactive waste. However, the primary emphasis has not been on human intrusion, but rather on the extent to which human intitutions should be involved in the long-[ term management of the site v) a-vis natural and engineered barriers.

18] Although, one function of.

institution is to transfer information, retention and. transfer of

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information about the repository site is not dependent on the existence of the same institution over a long period of time.

Obviously, one cannot predict with certainty that the information t

on the repository will not be lost. However, there.has never been a global blackout of knowledge and although there are' examples of infonna-tion that has been lost from the past, these occurred before the wide-spread use of writing and printing. Modern information transfer and storage systems would decrease the probability of this happening today.

The preponderance of historical evidence indicates that the likelihood of information loss is small. Our efforts should be directed towards careful a'nd deliberate marking of the site, an understandable explana-tion of the design and nature of the repository, as well as storage of r r.-.information about the site in multiple offsite locations. This will l

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further minimize the chance that memory of the site will be lost, and

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ensures that comparative texts do exist to enable future generations to decipher the site records. [19] Any event cataclysmic enough to destroy onsite markers and all offsite records would make the hazards posed by l

loss of the r~epository location small in comparison.

Onsite markings should range from very simple markers using universal symbols to warn of the danger, to complex descriptions of the mine and its contents.

Both types of markers should be made of materials that are impervious to destruction by time and the elements. [20] In situ "tell tales" could also be placed in the repository media to alert would-be mineral. explorers of the nature of the repository in the case that societal memory of the site was lost. [21] The specific languages to be used for marking the site. should be those that have the highest potential for survival. These would be those spoken by the largest number of people--English and Chinese--and a language spoken in a place remote enough to survive a natural or man-made-holocaust--for example, i

Spanish, which is scattered throughout the corners of South America.

I It is unlikely that any future generations would utilize different t

languages than those language groups used at the time the repository was developed. Before writing, language change was relatively rapid. The invention of writing stabilized language tc the point where radical change no longer occurred. [22] Even if a natural or manmade holocaust occurred, the survivors would not have to evolve a new system of writing, unless only young children survived, an extremely unlikely possibility.

Therefore, we can assume that future generations will be able to decipher the message left at the repository.

In the event that the memory of the site is lost, there is a high probability that any future society that possesses the knowledge and s ' capability to locate and explore for resources at 600 meters would also have the knowledge to recognize what they have found [23] how to mitigate adverse consequences, and would establish administrative control over the area. [24]

Reliable documentation of the site location and the nature of the l

repository will also be key factors in minimizing the hazard that could result from deliberate intrusion into the repository.

It is impossible to predict what the probability is for deliberate intrusion, but it is a possibility that cannot be ignored.

Even if a repository site is an

" unattractive" location in terms of existing resource potential, the high level waste itself may be an attractive resource and there may also

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be other site location resources and natural features that prove valuable to future generations.

However, any effort to recover those resources will be based on a conscious societal decision.- Our obligation to future generations is to assist them in making an informed decision on whether to breach the repository or to conduct any type of operation in its general vicinity. Documentation should present a full explanation of repository design, the nature of the waste including potential resource use, and an assessment of the potential hazards from breach of the repository to enable future generations ta fully evaluate the costs and 1

. benefits of intrusion. The remaining measure to be employed to minimize the possibility of deliberate human intrusion is to evaluate the existence 1

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of site resources of current or future value in making a site suitabil-W l

~ity decision. This type of site selection criteria will also work to l

minimize inadvertent human intrusion.

In neither case, however, will it - - -

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foreclose on its own credit the possibility that human intrusion will occur.One type of deliberate human intrusion that.would not be a collective societal decision would be intrusion by terrorists or saboteurs Although, a repository might seem to be an attractive target, there is little possibility that terrorists could covertly breach a repository.

Breach of the repository would require extensive use of machinery for drilling and excavating over a considerable period of time, and it is highly improbable that a terrorist group could accomplish this without being detected and stopped by government authorities.

REFERENCES 1

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See DOE, FEIS Management of Commercially Generated Radioactive Wastes, V. I, p. 3.43 (1980); DOE, Statement of Position, NRC Waste Confidence Rulemaking, PR-50, 51, p.11-192 (1980). Hebert, J. A.,

1 et al., Nontechnical Issues'in' Waste Management: Ethical Institu-tional and Political Concerns, p. 43 (1978); Lipschutz, R. D.,

Radioactive Waste:

Politics,' Technology, and Risk, p. 155 (1980);

Nuclear Energy. Policy Study Group, Nuclear Power Issues and Choices,

p. 243 (1977); W111 rich, M.,' Radioactive Waste, p. 95 (1977); Pro-ceedings of Conference'on'Public Policy Issues in Nuclear Waste Management (October,27-29, 1976); EPA Workshot on Environmental Protection Criteria for Radioactive Waste (OR)/CSD-77-1; ORP/CSD-77-2; ORP/CSD-78-2); NRC Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking.

l Technical Criteria for Regulating the Geologic Disposal of High 1

Level Radioactive Waste (45 Fed. Reg. 31398, May 13,1980).

2.

Rochlin, Gene, " Nuclear Waste Disposal: Two Social Criteria,"

Science, January 7, 1977:27.

3., Trigger, Bruce, Time and Tradition (1978).

4.

McNiel William, The Rise'of'the West, 58(1963).

5.

Lord, A. J., The Singer of Tales.

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i 6.

See Leaf Walter, Troy (1912); Burr, A. R., Minoans, Philistines, and Greeks; ihorndike, Joseph, Mysteries of the Past, 66 (1977).

7.

Suggs, Robert, The Island Civilization of Polynesia.

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8.

See, Vansina, Jan, The Dra1' Tradition. McCall, Dan, Africa in T Time Perspective.

9.

See, Fabre. Maurice, A History of Communication From Stone Age to Space Age; Hogben, Lance. The Signs of Civilization; Sabloff, J.,

Ancient Civilization and trade; Kunz, Gorge, Imperishable Records of the Ancients; Posner, E., Archives'in the Ancient World.

Supra'n. 4..L O 5 f_._ h. Q L :.. : ~::.....

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11.

For example, the Domesday Book comissioned by William the Conqueror in 1066; the Magna Carta; the Lindesfarne Bibles, and many others.

12. Strohl, P. " Legal Aaministrative and Financial Aspects of Long l

Term Management of Radioactive Waste." Nuclear Energy Agency OECD, 7

Nuclear Law Bulletin'No. '21 (June 1978).

13.

Hebert, et al., " Nontechnical' Issues in Waste Management:

Ethical, Institutional, and Political Concerns," Battelle Pacific Northwest D

DTvTsiion Human Affairs Research Center (May 1978).

14. Supra n. 4, see also Wells, H.

G., An Outline of History.

15. Thorndike, Joseph, Discovery'of' Lost Worlds (579); Thorndike, Joseph, Mysteries of the Past (1977); Bacon Edward, Lost Civiliza-i tions (1963); Daniel, G. E., Man Discovers His Past; Daniel, G. E.,

The Tdea of Prehistory; Daniel, G.

E., The Origins and Growth of 1

Archeology; Daniel, G. E.. '150' years of Archeology; Trigger, Bruce, Beyond Prehistory; Trigger, Bruce Time and Tradition. The destruc-tion of the Alexandrian Library has also been cited as an example of the loss of societal memory. However, most of the volumes in the i

library were duplicates.of originals stored in other parts of the waved, and furthermore, many of the library's volumes we're shipped out in the 4th century to Rome.and Constantinople, before the burning of the Alexandrian ~1ibraries. 'See, Parsons. Ed., The Alexandrian Library; Dunlap, Les, ~ Alexandria: The Capital of Memory.

x '16. Thorndike, Joseph, Discovery of Lost Worlds, 196.(1979).

17. Supra n. 4, at 249.,

see 43 Fed. Reg. 53263 11/15/78) and the NRC (see 45 Fed.

The EPA (DT/13/80) are not placing reliance on human institutions 18.

Reg. 3140 for any longer than 100 years after repository closure, relying instead on engineering and environmental barriers.

It should be.

noted that engineering and environmental barriers are more reliable not necessarily because of the time frame over which human institu-

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i tions can be relied on, but because the performance of the environ-i mental / engineering barriers are more reliable than the performance of human institutions in maintaining'the integrity of a site.

Although the EPA reached a judgment that 100 years was an appro-priate time limit for the reliability of human institutions, no background was given to support this judgment. There are several examples of institutions that have lasted well beyond 100 years (for example, the Catholic Church, Harvard University, the U.S.

National Bank System, U.S. State Governments) and there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that the likelihood of institu-2.

tional breakdown increases significantly after 100 years.

In fact,

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it was the consensus of the working group at the final EPA Workshop on Radioactive Waste that 100 years was too arbitrary a length of

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n time, and that the 100-year limit should not become part of.the EPA n" 2-

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criteria (see 0RP/CSD-78-2).7 ]

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19. The inability to translate the language of the Minoans, Linear B, has j

been cited as an example of the difficulty future generations may have in deciphering the repository records..(Supra, n. 2, at 27).

However, part of the difficulty. in deciphering Linear B was due to the fact that it's discoverer jealously guarded the information for I

years and also was delayed because of the intervention of World Wars I and II. The primary difficulty was the lack of comparative texts.

Storing the information on.the repository in multiple x

locations should facilitate translation.

See Chadwick, J., The Decipherment of Linear B.

20. Past history has shown that 1f you wish information to survive for

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many centuries it.should be cut in stone or baked in clay.

Paper products have not lasted and metal has been melted down for its resource value. Thorndike, Joseph J., Discovery of Lost Worlds, 1

302(1979).

21.

DOE, Statement of Position NRC Waste Confidence Proceedings, PR-50, 51, p. II-196 (1980).

22. Stewart, William, '"A Sociolinquistic Typology for Describing National Multilingualism," in Fishman, Joshua, Readings in the Sociology of Language.

See also Fishman, Joshua, Sociolinguistics.

23. The DOE FEIS on the Management of Commercially Generated Radio-x active Waste concluded that -

(b) The drill crew may not be aware of radioactive material in the drilling mud as it is brought' up; however, once samples are sent to their assay laboratory, the drillers would soon know of the radioactive nature of their exploratory effort.

If the assay were crude they might conclude, in the case of drilling l

through a-spent fuel element, that they had struck uranium, but very little sophistication in assay would be required to recognize that the radiation spectrum was not at all like that l

of natural uranium. The radiation characteristics of material I

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brought up after passing through a solidified high-level waste l

canister would resemble natural ores even less.

j However, Rochlin has pointed out that if our society depletes exist-ing uranium ore beds, a future society could develop to a point where they are advanced enough to breach a repository but lack any knowledge of radioactivity. '(Supra N. 4 and 27).

However, this assumes deple '

tion of the ore beds, disappearance of the mill tailings, and either selective loss of knowledge of radioactivity or a complete loss of knowledge.

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