ML20004F352
| ML20004F352 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 05/18/1981 |
| From: | Minogue R NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES) |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML20004F351 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8106180206 | |
| Download: ML20004F352 (12) | |
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bUCLEAR RE60LAf0RY-CCFinSSION O
CDTLCoAEif f 0F A METHC0 FOR
s 0F liUCLEAR F0WER FLANTS :
P00R ORIGINAL AGENCY:
ilUCLEAR REGULAEDRY :CCMaf 3SM1-ACTION:
anouncemenc of Graat Award ar..hltatir.; Schedula SL'P ARY: The TiRC Of"c2 of thcicar Rc7:!a'.ory. ne. wen-has recently 1
- a. 2cded grants of financial assistence to two tachnical. 20cietjes to ce;rdinate; efforts ta develop a.Procchres Guide for the performance of p:.:abili *'c una'/2!;:cf ::he uf ety. f nuclear pcwer plants.
Each sc.is ty will hcid. a technical confer:xe to.pecv.ide a public forum for 2reac tcch:.ical peer review.
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Oc.tobe r 23-28, 1981, liiEE Can farence, '.'ashington, DC.
April 4-7,1982. A'1S Cufer.:,.ce FOR FURTl!ER I.'4FORMATI0tl CONTACT: Mr. Robert Sarnero, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S..iluclear Regulatory Cc:: aissien, Washington, DC, 2^315 (Telephcne: 301-443-3936).
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SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
OVERVIEW -
The NRC Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has recently awarded
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grants of financial assistance to two technical societies to coordinate
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efforts to develop a Procedures Guide for the performance of probabilis-tic analysis of the safety of nuclear power plants. The grants are for9
$238,000.00 to the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers t
(IEEE)and$228,000.00 to the American Nuclear Society (ANS).
Each of the societies will hold a technical conference to provide a public
% - forum for broad technical peer review and understanding of the procedures guide. The IEEE conference will be held October 25-28, 1981, in G..n Washington, DC and the ANS conference will be held April 4-7, 1982.
A. number of technical si,ecialists comprise the Technical Working Group.
These individuals, from within and from outside the nuclear industry, will participate as authors of the various parts of the procedures guide.
A number of peer reviewers, also from within and outside the nuclear in-dustry, will. participate on a regular basis to provide broad input to
- t the work.
Financial support of t'hese technical specialists is being provided by the NRC, the Deparbent of Energy, the Electric Power Research Institute, and many organizations in the nuclear industry.
A Steering Committee has been formed, as an independent group to provide directionandhlaDhg.forthep ject. The Steering Committee will be the final approval body for the procedures guide.
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The project will prod.uce a procedures guide that can be followed for probabilistic analysis.of accident sequences, systen failure probab-lities, radioactivity release, and accident, consequences. The NRC may j
adopt part or all of this guide later. However, this project will be completed upon publication of the procedures guide following the ANS conference in 1982.
a NRC has established a file on this activity in the Public Document Room at 1717 H Street, NW, Washington, DC.
- Tne plan and rationale for this activity described below was prepared by
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interested parties from the NRC, the technical societies and the nuclear.
industry before the activity was undertaken. This plan was the basis of.
agreement for this project.
It should be noted that this project is intended only to prepare a technically sound procedures guide for probab-1,11stic analysis of nuclear power plants, it is not intended to develop regulatory policy.
- PLAN -
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BACKGROUND a
Since the completion of the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) the NRC has been exploring ways to systematically apply probabilistic analysis to nuclear power plants. The NRC, in its Interim Reliability Evaluation Program (IREPJwhichisnowunderway,isdevelopingandgivingtrialuse
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to a procedures guide which coul.d be the basis for systematic analysis j
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4 of all. nuclear power plants, a National Reliability Evaluation Program (NREP). Before settling on any procedures guides for such 'a broad under-taking the NRC is int 0 rested in obtaining the advice and participation of many competent parties, including the nuclear industry and probabilistic Thus the analysis experts from within and without the nuclear industry.
NRC seeks to initiate and support a project to develop a procedures 2
guide, a method for systematic probabilistic risk assessments of nuclear power plants.
2.
THE PROJECT The project envisioned is to develop a Procedures Guide for the system-atic ap' plication of probabilistic and reliability analysis to nuclear power plants., This Procedures Guide is expected to define the acceptable S
methodology for performance of such studies. The Procedures Guide is expected to address the following subject areas:
(1)systemreliability
' analysis, (2) accident sequence classification, (3) frequency assessment J
for classes of accident sequences, (4) estimation of radiologic release
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fractions for core melt accident sequences, and (5) consequence analysis.
For each of these subject areas, the Procedures Guide should delineate i
(1) acceptable analytic techniques, (2) acceptable assumptions and modeling approximations including the treatment of statittical data, i
l coninon cause failures and human errors, (3) treatment of uncertainty, f
(4) acceptable standards for documentation, and (5) quality control.
The Procedures Guide is expected to define a practical scope of analysis for such systimatic review conducted in the next few years. Thus, the s,,
Procedures Guide might recommend < omission, simplification, or post-ponementofsor.eelementsofac$mpleteanalysis.
If it does, the E
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Procedures Guide may or may not include specific guidance on when or how to address these elements later. The Guide may be adopted and modified under other auspices later, but this project will end with the first publication of the Procedures Guide.
The NRC sees this situation as a unique opportunity to use the resources of two technical societies, the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) and the American Nuclear Society (ANS), to develop and review statements of useful PRA methodology and recommend applications.
The technical society activities envisioned are two conferences linked
- by a series of workshops which will prepare material for the conferences.
The IEEE is seen as the principal host of the first of these conferences,'
the Review Conference, because their membership and ability to contribute spans not only the nuclear industry but other industries which have used probabilistic and reliability anlaysis for some time. The ANS is seen as the principal host of the second of these conferences, the Topical Conference.
The NRC would work directly with each of the two technical societies supporting and cosponsoring activities specifically related to this project. The societies would be expected to use their resources to obtain the attention and participation of technically qualified parties.
The NRC, with Steering Committee advice, may select a time or times in the course of,this project to make materials available for general public comment through other channels sugh as publication in the Federal Register, etc.
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- 3.. POLICY ACTIVITIES The activity planned to develop a Procedures Guide for probabilistic analysis is premised on the expectation that the 'Jse of such a Procedures Guide would be systematically undertakan in the nuclear power industry and that the results of such analyses would be used in regulatory decisionmaking. Neither NRC nor the owners of the nuclear plants can or would delegate their policy setting responsibilities to others. There-fore, the HRC is expected to continue to develop specific policies on a
the extent and manner in which probabilistic analysis will be used.in
-the regulatory process. The nuclear plant owners are expected to pursue
' resolution of these policy issues as well, operating individually and through the Atomic Industrial Forum (AIF), through its Policy Committee '
on Nuclear Regulation and its subordinate committees and subcommittees. '
The effectiveness of the prepar'ation and use of the' Procedures Guide depends heavily on timely policy input to the technical effort.
There-fore, it is important that both NRC and the industry pursue resolution of these policy issues through normal channels as well as by dedicating persons to participate in. this technical society effort who are signifi-cantly involved in resolution of these policy issues.
4.
ORGANIZATION The organization of this project is intended to enable the NRC and the nuclear industry to work closely with the two technical societies in cosponsoring their activities in a coordinated scheme of action. The
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project will be direct'ed by a Steering Committee under ths joint chair-i manship of two representatives of'the technical societies, the IEEE and
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1 and the ANS. The principal work of d:valoping technicr1 documents for l
the project will be performed by a project Technical Committee.
Each of the conferences is expected to have its own conference committee.
The Steering Committee, excluding the two co-chairmen, is drawn from different sources as follows:
Affiliation Number of Members NRC 3
DOE 1
ANS 2
AIF 1
Other Nuclear Industry 4
The Steering Committee will set its final membership. At its discretion, it may include in its number the chairman of the project Technical Com-mittee and the chairmen of the conference committees when they have been..
chosen by' their respective professional societies. The chairman and the members of the Technical Committee will be chosen by the Steering Com-mittee. The Technical Committee is expected to include about seven or eight specialists who have strong technical knowledge of both nuclear power plant analysis and probabilistic and reliability analysis techniques. These experts will be drawn from the nuclear industry, the national labo(atories, and the NRC.: In addition, as directed by the
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Steering Committee, the Technical (Committee will be augmented fran time to time by additional members, driwn from non-nuclear industry and
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9overnment experts in risk assessment methodologies. They will be assisting the Technical Committee to develop realistic descriptions and evaluations of candidate probab',11stic analysis methods as well as reviews of pertinent experience in the use of probabilistic and relia-bility analysis for consideration by the Steering Committee and the technical society meatings.
It is expceted that, under the Steering Comnittee's direction, the augmented Technical Committee will review the procedures for PRA which have been or are being used in the nuclear and non-nuclear fields and L* raft the Procedures Guide described in 2. above. When the Procedures Guide has been sufficiently developed, it will undergo peer review in the IEEE sponsored Review Conference. The Review Conference is expected to draw participants from the nuclear industry, from the research com-The Review munity, from professional societies, and from government.
Conference is expected to use a suitable choice of format to discuss:
(1) status reports of recent PRA activities such as the NRC's IREP, the Zion / Indian Point Study, the Oconee/NSAC review, etc., (2.) PRA applicationsandexperienceinnon-nuclearsettings,(3) implications cf use of PRA, in the regulatory context, and (4) results of the Tech-t nical Committee's work on PRA methodologies with special emphasis on new approaches.
From time to time either before or after the Review Conference the t
Steering Committee may direct that drafts of the Procedures Guide be circulated to other reviewers for technical comment.
Similarly, the O
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NRC may chaose to' circulate drafts of the Procedures Guide to the general public for infor~ation and coment at suitable times.
After the Review Conference the Technical Comittee will resume drafting of the Procedures Guide. The Procedures Guide, and the bases for its form and methods will be reviewed again at workshops and the Topical Conference sponsored by the ANS.
It is expected that the Topical Conference,will include reports on many PRA proje:ts, technical issns in PRA, and policy issues in PRA, as well as a suitable fonnat for dis-cussion and review of the Procedures Guide. Presumably, the Steering Comittee and the Technical Comittee will meet again after the Topical Conference to incorporate the coments obtained there. When the Procedures Guide is finished the project will be completed.
The Procedures Guide is not expected to be an officially endorsed product of either of the technical societies; it will not have gone through the rigorous and usually longer consensus process as would be the case in the development of a national standard. The Procedures Guide will be instead a producEof the Steering Comittee, an ad hoc group acting in concert with but independent of the two technical societies.
The members of the Steering Comittee are chosen in part because of their normal professional affiliation but act in the Comittee as individuals. The members' acts in Comittee do not represent the official positions of their agencies. No agency or organization, by the comit-ment of resouh:es-todhis project id considered to be adopting or l
endorsing the resulting Procedure 5 Guide. At the end of the project the Procedures Guide will be published to ensure its availability for critique and endorument on its own merits.
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5.
SUPPORT The two professional sccieties will act as secretariat for or sponsor the activities of this project under separate support agreements with the NRC.
In general, the IEEE will sponsor and administer the Review Conference, the IEEE participation in the Steering Committee, and the non-nuclear industry contributions to the work of the Technical Committee.-
The ANS will sponsor and administer the Topical Conference and provide administrative support for the Steering Committee and the Technical Committee, providing meeting rooms, working facilities and whatever other physical support services are required. The final division of responsibility will be made by the Steering Committee.
Persons designated to participate in the Steering' Committee and the Technical Comnittre will be expected to make a substantial commitment ofo a :
their time.
It is expected that the Technical Committee will meet for one week every six to eight weeks during the first six months of this project. The nuclear industry and NRC participants will be expected to -
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devote about 20% of their working time to the project. The chairman of -
the Technical Committee and techniti.1 support staff will likely spend about half time on the project. Consultants will work as required.
7.
PARTICIPANTS The follpwing participants have been tentatively designated:
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Steering Committee:
Richard J. Gowen, Co-Chairman, (IEEE)
South Dakota School of Mining and Technology Saul Levine, co-Chairman (ANS)
NUS Corporation,
Robert M. Bernero U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission John Boettger Public Service Electric & Gas Kenneth Canady Duke Power Company Malcolm L. Ernst U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Herbert Feinroth U. S. Department of Energy Jack W. Hickman, Exofficio member of the Steering Canmittee as Chairman of the Technical Committee Sandia National Laboratories Irving Howell South Central Bell Telephone Company Robert E. Larson Systems Control, Inc.
James F. Mallay Nuclear Safety Analysis Center Edward P. O'Donnell Ebasco Services, Inc.
Wayne L. Stiede Commonwealth Edison Alfred Torri
'Pickard, Lowe and Garrick, Inc.
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.s Ian B. Wall Electric Power Research Institute N
Edwin'Zebroski Nuclear Safety Analysis Center
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Signed at Silver Spring, Maryland, This 18th day of tiay 1981.
M Robert B. Minogue, Diredtor Office of fluclear Regulatory Research O
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