ML19345H125
| ML19345H125 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Summer  |
| Issue date: | 03/12/1981 |
| From: | Boehnert P Advisory Committee on Reactor Safeguards |
| To: | |
| References | |
| ACRS-CT-1331, NUDOCS 8105010008 | |
| Download: ML19345H125 (2) | |
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' ADVISORY COMMITTEE ON REACTOR SAFE 2UARDs j,,
j WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 1
%yj March 12,1981 i
l FEMORANDUM FOR: ACRS Members l
FROM: Paul Boehnert, Staff Engineer
SUBJECT:
COMMENTS OF DR. TRIFUNAC REGARDING THE SUMMIR PLANT SEISMICITY Dr. Trifunac provided the following comments by telephone on March 12, 1981.
1.
Dr. Trifunac expressed concern over the methodology used by Dr. McGuire to estimate the number of earthquakes expected (N) for a given earthquake intensity (I), Dr. Trifunac said that McGuire used the following correla-tion:
login N = 1.2 - 0.5 I.
He.believesMcGujreappliedthis caldGlation to an area of one million km. Dr. Trifunac noted that Chinnery developed the above correlation as follows:
(
)
log 10 N = 2.31 - 0.46I and that it applies to an area of 2
307,000 km,
If one normalizes both equations to the same area one gets:
log 10 N = -0.36 - 0.461 (Chinnery) log 10 N = -1.8 - 0.51 (McGuire)
Dr. Trifunac questions McGuire's methologody, based on the above.
2.
Dr. Trifunac used Chinnery's normalized equation (login N = -0.36 -
0.46 I) and provided the following calculations of earthquake accelera-tions with a probability of exceedance for three MM values for a 50 year time period.
For MM VIII Intensity:
O.25g - probability of exceedance u 5%
0.18g -
~10%
0.11g -
~30%
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For MM X Intensity A.
0.529 - probability of exceedance - 5%
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J 0.35g -
x10%
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0.20g -
+30%
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- ,0 ACRS Members March 12,1981 For M XII Intensity (characterized as highly unlikely) 0.759 - probability of exceedance w 5%
- 0. 51 g -
ca10%
w 30%
0.289-The theory used to determine these values is from "Unform Risk Functionals Which Describe Strong Ground Motion By Anderson and Trifunac.
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