ML19345C197
| ML19345C197 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Midland |
| Issue date: | 06/30/1980 |
| From: | Bancroft J, Cosby J, Sheppard W WILBUR SMITH ASSOCIATES |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8012040114 | |
| Download: ML19345C197 (58) | |
Text
{{#Wiki_filter:__ _ _ _ _ _ e y'. l qg VOLUME Vli AN l INDE?ENDENT ASS.ESSVENT OF EVACL A- lON TIMES FOR .I l u l D ._ A N D
\iC _.EA R DOWE R PLAN--
Prepared for FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY cTE!
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t o . l ACKNCWLIDGEMENT The independent assessment of the evacuation times contained
- in this report was performed under the technical direction of John C. Cosby. Mr. William V. Sheppard, Vice president, was the Principal-in-Charge of the Project. The principal contributors to the individual volu=es of the report were:
Volume I - Program Recort - John C. Cosby voluma ZI - Bailly - James R. Bancro f t volume III - Beaver Valley - Richard A. Day volume IV - Enrico Fermi - Elbert L. Waters Volume V - Limerick - George S. Coulter, Jr. Volume VI - Maine Yankee - Robe rt P . Jurasin l l Volu=e VII .tdland - James R. Bancrof t and i Elbert L. Waters l Volu=c VIII - Millstone - Frank LaMagna i Volume I'C - Shoreham - H. Dean Browner l Volu=e X - Thrse Mile Island - Welbourne E. Thompson l l r All reports were revised and edited by Jolm C. Cosby and H. Dean 3 cwner. All of the above personnel are permanent employees of Wilbur Smith and Associates. l l r
TABLE OF CCNTENTS PAGE Intreduction 1 Evacuatien Time Assessment Versas Evacuation Plan 2 General Assenpticus 3 Site Pescription 6 Regional Characteristics 8 Supper Organizatiens 9 Sc= mary of Emergency 10 Area Characteristics 11 Topograchy 11 Meteorology 11 Cemcgraphy 12 Emergency Planning Areas 20 Concept of Evacuation 25 Notification 25 Public Response Time 26 i Evacuation Link /Nede Network 27 Evacuation Network 40
.S'gecial Transportation Recuirements 42 Sector Evacuation 43 Evacuation Time Assessment 44 Normal Workday 44 Nighttime Condition 44 Sc=mertime Recreation Peak 45 Adverse Conditions 46
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~ ILLUST RATIONS FOLLCWS FIGURE PAGE 1 Study Site Location 8 2 Scecial Problem Areas 14 3~ Special Preblem Areas 14 4 Special Problem. Areas 14 5 Special Preblem Areas 14
- 6. Evacuation Network 27 7 Evacuation Netacrk 27 9 Evacuation Network 27 9 Evacuaticn Network 27
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I TABULATICNS TABLE PAGE 1 Jurisdictions Within 10-Mile EP' 13 2 Schools and Enrollment, Midland 15 3 Ecspital Location and Capacity 18 4 Criminal Detention Centers 13 5 Recreational-Areas 19 6 Major Employers 19 7 Network Description _28 8 Evacuation Route Link /Ncde Description, By Centroid 34 9 Vehicles on Each Link, Normal Weekday 37 10 Evacuation Times, Sy Centroid 47 i 9 a b l _w .
INTROCUCTION An independent assessment of evacuation times around nine nuclear power plant sites was made for the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The results of this three-menth study are cen-tained in ten volumes, as follcws : Volume I - Program Report - Evacuation Time Assessment of Nine Nuclear Pcwer Plant E=ergency Planning Zcnes (EPZ's) Volume II - Bailly Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuaticn Time Assessment Volume III - Beaver Valley Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume IV - Enrico Fermi Nuclear Pcwer P'l' ant Evacuaticn Time Assessment volume V - Li:terick Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume VI - Maine Yankee Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment 4 Volume VII - Midland Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Tire Assessment Vclume VIII - Millstene Nuclear Pcwer Plan: Evacuation Time Assessment Volu=e IX - Shoreham Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment Volume X- - Three Mile Island Nuclear Pcwer Plant Evacuation Time Assessment In addition, an Executive Summary is also available. This volume contains the evacuation times assess =ent for the Midland Nuclear Pcwer Station. The evaluaticn of four scenaries and the discussion of evacuation of special problem areas are included. i l l
a*g i s 1 The scenarios evaluated are those expected when evacuation takes place at night (the optimum time frem the standpcint of evacu-ation time), during a normal workday, during bad weather (the worst case condition) , and, where applicable, the evacuation with summerti=e resident and transient population. Evacuation Time Assessment versus Evacuation Plan The assessment empicys available demographic data and trans- , portation facility information to predict the public respcnse time to an evacuation warning on the assumption that such a warn- , ing is =ade within 15 minutes. of an en-site nuciear incident warranting such emergency actien. The assessment must provide for estimates of public respense time to these warnings , assembly of fa=ily and other groups, preparation for departure, travel time en the network including consideration of capacity limitations en the network possibly forming queues which add to delays, and clearance of the 10-mile radius around the site. It mus t consider the evacuation of special prcolem areas and groups. These would include schools , nurseries , nursing and retirement homes , hospitals , penal f acilities , beaches and recreational areas, and other activities which may provide periodic or seasonal concentrations of pecple. Population groups without access to their own transportation or unable to provide the special transportation facilities required for evacuation must be included in the evacuation time assessment. Evacuation time assessrent methodology combines selected techniques of traffic management and planning, land use planning and operational analysis. Because some conditions prevailing during an evacuatien are not well documented, modifications to 2
scme established principles may be required to meet evacuatica 3 requirements. - Assumptions may be required in lieu of well for=u-lated relationships because of the highly specialized preblems being addressed. These assumptions must be founded en best pro- ^ fassional judgement anf/or extrapolation f cm existing kncwledge. The assumptions must be specifically identified. The bases upon i which the assumptions are founded should be appropriately dis-cussed. i Evacuation time assessments centain basic methodology commen j to evacuation plan develcpment. Howeve r, the assessment is not an evacuation plan. The major distincticn between the assessment
- and a plan is the extent to which the elements have been coordi-4 nated with all participant agencies and jurisdictions. For exa=ple, the assessment may assume that a specific traffic management element is established to eptimize traffic operatiens at a specific location alcng an evac 2ation network. The feasi-bility of such an element in the assess =ent would be based upcn established technical principles. Ecwever, the element would net be cocrdinated with specific law enforcement agencies to establish what agency would exercise the element centrol and management nor identify the type and number of persennel to be require d. The study time allotted =akes such coordination im-possible. The assess =ent must identify what is required for the evacuation time to be realized, and assum_e that such an element would be implemented.
General Assu=etions In the assessment of evacuatien times, certaia general assumptions were mandaterf. More important of these are summa-rized as follows:
- 1. Emergency evwtation of the general public from the IP1 will be performed-largely from the hcme by the family as a united l' 3 l
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- O group. This assu=ption is prefaced by the following quote: I}
. . . people will not evacuate an area, regardless of the danger, if their family group is separated, unless they know that members of their f amily are safe, cecounted for, and that arrangements have been made for them to evacuate." It was felt that this psychological pressure is so prevalent and strong that the above assumption appears to be justified. In addition, to assure that segments of the family are safe and accounted for would have required the establishme.it of shelter locatiens and the develop-ment of a shelter support plan. In view of the next assu=p, tion and due to the short time period of the study, this was not done.
- 2. Public use of shelters in previous mass evacuation exper-ience related to natural disasters appears to be a very small 5 percentage of total evacuees. Examples cited in" literature include:(2) "In a California flood, only 9,260 out of 50,000 persons evacuated registered in the 38 Red Cross shelters; during Hurricane Carla, 75 percent of the evacuees went to other than public shelters; and during Hurricane Setsy, only 20 percent requested assistance. Generally, shelter centers are used cnly if nothing else is available or if one cannot financially care for himself. " In this evacuation time assessment study, it was assured that the predominant traffic, after leaving the'10-mile EPZ, wen: diverse routes rather than to a shelter destination.
Therefore, the evacuation time assessment ended at the EPZ boundary. An analysis of route capacities and service levels of highway facilities beyond that boundary was made to assure that delays or problems were unlikely to occur. (1) EVACUATICN RISKS - AN EVAT UATICN, U.S. Environmental Pro-tacticn Agency, Office of Radiation Programs, EPA-520/6 002, June, 1974, p. 49. (2) Ibid., p. 52.
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- 3. Experience gained in a large range of evacuations indi-cates that private vehicles I3I ". . . were the predominant mcde for evacuation (more than 99 percent) . Pcpulation density ranged frem apprcximately 15 persens per square mile to 20,000 persens per square mile." It was assumed that this was applicable to this time essessment study. It was further assured that persens without private vehicle transportation would be provided, at their telephone request, adequate transportation in high occu-pancy vehicles (HOV's). The additional vehicle volumes en the network wculd therefore be small, could be affected during the general public evacuation time, and would not affect the cc=puted evacuation tires of the general population.
- 4. It has been cbserved that not all persens will evacuate the EP . "In many cases, even when presented w[th a grave threat, pecple refuse to evacuate. "I4I This scurce centinues , "Results of this study indicate that approximately six percent of the total population refused to evacuate. Other reports iadicate this figure can run as high as 50 percent. There is no reason to believe that because the disaster agent is radiation rather than some other agent . . . will provide sufficient =otivatien to leave. Rather the cpposite viewpcint should be taken--pecple wilI hesitate to leave."I I It is believed that a majcrity of thi.' hesitance is based en fear of exposing their preperty to looting and vandalism. Notwithstanding this evidence , this time assessment study assumed that all persens evacuate.
- 5. It has been assumed that the traffic network within the EPZ has been isolated so that no through traffic is permitted to enter it within 15 minutes after the evacuatien warning has been issued.
(3) Ibid., p. 52. (4) Ibid., p. 48. (5) Lec . ci t . 5
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- 6. Traffic management by appropriate law enforce =ent cfficers will be performed at selected intersections where evacuation traffic flew is given priority.
- 7. All persons in the EP: have been provided, in advance, sufficient infor=ation regarding the assigned evacuation route from their place of residence (rsferred to as the " centroid" in the report) .
- 3. It was assumed that the public response to an evacuation order can be defined as a combination of up to four categories of statistically distributed responses: receive warning, leave work, travel heme, and evacuate home. It was assumed that these responses are time-distributed follcwing a normal distribution curve. The details and applications of this assumption are more fully discussed later in this report.
Additional assumptions were made which are discussed within the body of this repert. 4 Site Descriction The Midland Nuclear Pcwer Station is located in the City of Midland, Michigan. It is apprcximately 20 miles west of Bay City, Michigan, and about 21 =iles southeast of Saginaw, Michigan. Figure 1 shows the general location of the Midland sita and the surrounding areas within 10 =iles of the site. The coordinates of the Midland reactor centain=ent structure are 43 35' 10" latitude and 84 13' 8" longitude.. The political boundaries of the site are located within Midland and portions of Say and Saginaw Counties; the City of Midland; Williams, Tittabawassee, Mt. Holly, Ingersoll, portions of Richland, Lee and Lincoln Townships are within a 10-mile radius of the plant. 6
Licensee - The Censu=ers Pcwer Cc=pany of Jackson, Michigan is the lie- *ee which operates the two f acilities. Sabcock and Wilcox are the construction engineers who built the plant. Tyre of Plant - The system at Midland consists of two pressurized water reactors with a total capacity of 1330 megawatts (Midland 1-524 MWE and Midland 2-006 MWE) of electrical output. E=ercency Planning Area - The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) by definition is the 10-mile radius around the plant site. Because the 10-mile radius is not recognizable on the ground, the scudy boundary approximates the 10-mile radius by identifiable land-marks such as rivers, jurisdictional boundaries, major roadways,
.snd other well kncwn tcpegraphical features. The 10-mile radius sur:cunding Midland anec= passes = cst of Midland and pertiens of Bay Ccunties. The EPZ was established to adhere to a 10-mile radius surrcunding the nuclear pcwer plant as practical as possible.
These peripheral boundaries will assist the local agencies imple-menting the plan and the people affected by evacuation to identify the 10-mile radius limit and avoid the possibility of evacuating people beyond tne 10-mile radius. For areas within the 10-mile radius, tcwnships were used as planning :enes. Figure 1 presents the EP: boundaries, the 10-=ile rt :;s, and the townships. The EPZ boundary along the northeast generally parallels Sc= hay Road 0.7 miles south. The eastern side parallels Inter-state 10, US 23, and Interstate 75, approximately three =iles west. The western side of the EP2 generally parallels 0.6 miles east of 9-Mile Road. The southern most boundary parallels 2 i miles north of Michigan 46. 7
s Recicnal Charac: eristics This section presents the general regional characteristics which surround the Midland tiuclear Pcwer Plant, in particular, the intensity of land use and development, population and popu-lation centers, major transportation facilities, planning zones, parks and recreaticnal areas. Ma$ce Population Centers - Within the 10-mile radius, there is only one urbanized area representing an estimated 1985 resident i r egulation of approximately 58,113. The cities of Midland, Freeland and Auburn are the only inccrporated ccmmunities. The total popu-lation of the EP: is 79,845. Plant Lccatien - Figure 1 shcws the location of the plant in relation to the varicus county and local jurisdictions. Within the 10 . Tile radius, all or portions of three municipalities are in three counties, Midland and portions of Bay and Saginaw Counties. . . Of the three municipalities, there are 17 townships in the IPZ. Maior Transportation Facilities - Two major roads serve the area within a 10-mile radius of the plant, CS 10 and Michigan
- 20. These roads approach the plant at their closest point and is 3.3 miles ncrtheast and 2.3 miles northwest of the plant site.
See Figures 2-5. US 10 is a four-lane highway and Michigan 20 is four lanes frc= the intersection of Poseyville Rcad 1.3 miles northwest of the plant. It is a five-lane road frem Grey Road to the intersection of Meridian Road 7.3 miles northwest of the plant. l 3 i I -, -
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N I l '+' l STUDY SITE LOCATION ! EVACU ATION TIME ASSESSMENT MIDLAND l h /w .. mouse t l l
There are two airports located within 'the 10-mile radius. Tri-City Metrcpolitan Airport (served by ccmmercial airlines) and the Jack Barstew Airport (general aviation). Tri-City Airport has two runways with lengths of 6,500 and 5,475 feet respectively. Both runways are of bituminus surfaces. Tri-City' Airport is located 7.6 miles southeast of the Midland Nuclear Power Plant. The Jack Barstew Airport has two runways with both lengths of 3,000 feet. Both have bituminus surfaces. Two major rail cads are located within the 10-mile EPZ. The Chesapeake /Chio and Penn Central (Con Rail) Railroads. The Chesapeake /Chio runs through the Midland Nuclear Power Plant site. The City of Midland has a demand-responsive public transit system that serves the entire 10-mile EP2. It has 9 vehicles with monthly riderships of 11,97S. Support creanizations In case of an emergency, close ccordination between federal, state, and local agencies is i= perative to provide the responsi-bility necessary to ensure implementation of an evacuation plan. Support agencies expected to coordinate activities in the Midland area are:
- 1. Michigan State Police - Emergency Services Division i 2. City of Midland Police Department
- 3. Sheriff of Say County
- 4. Office of Civil Defense (Say County Emergency Pre-
. paredness Office)
- 5. City of Midland Fire Department Source: Michigan Department of State Highways and Transportatien.
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- 6. Midland Tcwnship Fire Depart =ent
- 7. Bay Medical Center
- 8. Midland Ecspital Association
- 9. Midland County Sheriff
- 10. Midland Hcspital Center (Emergency Medical Service)
- 11. U.S. Department of Energy (Radiclogical Assistance)
- 12. CCW Chemical Ccmpany
- 13. Saginaw County Emergency Preparedness office
- 14. saginaw County Sheriff's Department
- 15. Midland County Emergency Services
- 16. Censumers Power Ccmpany St= mary cf T.mercancy Plannine An evacuacicn plan for the Midland site has been developed by the Midland County Offic: cf Civil Preparedness as of April, 1980. Censumers Power Cc=pany is also updating their evacuation plan. The scheduled completion date is in December, 1980. l 10
1 l l l AREA CHAP.ACTERISTICS Thi3 section describes the area characteristics which surround Midland, in particular, tcpegraphy, . meterclegy, demography (popu-lation by :ene; school population; hospital population; prisen population; recreation area occupancy) and the emergency planning zenes. Tcpecraphy The Midland site is situated in the ficed plain of the T tta-bawassee River in Midland County, Michigan, apprcximately three miles south by southeast of the City of Midland central business district. The City of Midland is located at the confluence of the Tittabawassee and Chippewa Rivers in central Michigan approximately 19 miles due west frcm Bay City on Lake Huron's Saginaw Bay. Frcm an elevation of approximately 6u0 feet at the site, the < terrain rises 35 feet frem the ficed plain. Beyond the river the terrain is ccmparitively flat reaching maximum elevations of 675 feet te the southwest of the City. Metecrolecy The Midland !!uclear site is in a temperate centinental climate with ccid, snewy winters and warm, humid summers. There are fre-qucnt daily and seasonal changes in the weather due to the frequent passage of migratory cyclones and anticyclones with acccmpanying changes in air masses, wind speeds, and wind directiens. Because of its mid-latitude location, Midland is a region where the prevailing winds are westerly. During the summer months winds are predominately southwesterly. In the winter these winds shif t to the west and northwest. The average annual precipitation is 29.6-inches at Midland. Precipitation is distributed throughcut the year, although about 60 percent of the total occurs.between mid-April and mid-Cctober in the form of rain. The annual average nu=her of days with precipitatica of 0.1 inch or more is 131.- The maxinum a=ount of precipitation recorded.in a 24-hour peried was 6.0 inches in September 1950. The heaviest short-term rainfall is asscciated with thunderster=s. I i 11 i e
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Freezing rain and snow are frequent during the winter and early spring as a result of cold westerly winds frem Canada. The average annual snewfall is 43 inches and may occur frem Octcher to May. The maximum 24-hour snewfall was 19.8 inches ' in January 1967. Heavy snewfalls of this magnitude cccur on su Four months, December average of once every two to three years. through March, average more than eight inches. Free:ing rain can occur from November to April with an average occurrance of 127 days per year. An accumulation of ice of 0.25 inch once every year and at least 0.50 inch every When an ice storm occurs, the mean two years can be expected. Ice duration.of gla:e ice on utility wires is 26 hours. accumulation has reached two inches in several occasions causing J entire e:wns to lose electrical and telephone service. Streng winds occur as a result of extratrepical cyclones, thunderstor=s, and tornadcas. Thunderstorms are convectionally driven and thus are the major scurce of high winds during the summer months. Extratropical cyclones usually prcduce the high-est winds .in winter because they are energized mainly by temper-Tornado activity is relatively ature contrasts between air masses. small in Michigan. Half of all tornadoes occur in the =cnths of April and May. The return interval of a tornado striking a one degree square centered on the site is once in 1,500 years. Fog that reduces visibility to 1/4 mile er less cccurs relatively infrequently, averacing 19 days per year. Demecraphy A~ need for accurate population projecticns is essential to the assessment of an evacuatien plan. A design year of 1985 was selected which would be a realistic representaticn of the resident pcpulation at the time Midland beccmes cperaticnal. Population data was provided by Consumers ?cwer Cc=pany and are su=marized in Table 1. 12
4 TABLE 1 JURISDICTICNS WITHIN 10-MILE EPZ MIDLAND Jurisdiction Poculation Mid'.and Cecnty Lincoln Township 2:42 Larkin Township 2303 Midland Tcwnship 43691 Hemer Townshic 4475 Lee Tcwnship (E ) 1650 Porter Township (NE %) 55 - Mount Haley Township 607 Incersoll Tcwnshic 2723 ' Jerome Township (SE \) 375 1 Total: 53113 1 Bay County 3eaver !cwnship 2401 Williams Township 3459 Moniter Tcwnship (N k) 2577 Kawkawli Tcwnsnig (SW ) 271 Frankeniust Tcwnship (NW h) 509 Total- 14216 Sacinaw County T ::abawassee Tcwnship 5323 Kochville Tcwnship (SW h) 442 Thomas Township (N ) 889 Richland Township (N ) 617 Jones Field Tcwnship (N ) 235 Total: 7516 Scurce: Estimated Population for Year 1985, Consumers Power Company, Jackson, Michigan I 13
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The pcpulation projections reflect the number of people who would be requested to exit from'a zene. Under evacuation conditions the persons per vehicle can be expected to be between 3 and 4'per-sons. Since the average family unit population in the Midland area is approximately three and family units are expected to evacuate as a group, this icwer figure was used during calculations. There are 45 schools within the 10-mile EPZ including 34 public and 11 private primary and secondary schools. Total enrollment is estimated to-be 17,000. The names and 1ccations of these schools within the EPZ are shc r a Figures 2 through 5 and Table 2. 4 Midland Hescital Center is the only hospital located within 10 miles of the site. There are approximately 305 beds with the facility, and the occupancy rate is 75 to 85 percent. Fcur ambu-lances are at the hospital with another nine county wide. This facility is shown in Figure 5 and Table 3. Midland County Jail is the only criminal detention center within the EPZ. Jail capacity is approximately 61 inmates. At present there is an evacuation plan entitled, " Emergency Operations Plan for i Midland County." This facility is shown in Figure 2 and 5 and Table 4. Recreational areas are also shown in Figures 2 through 5 and Table 5. Within the EPZ there are three parks, the county fair-grounds,'and a winter skiing area. Dow Chemical, Michigan Division, is the largest employer in the Midland area. Approximately 5400 will be employed at Ocw Chemical in 1985, of which 500 will be on the day shift. The 2000 acre ccm-plex is the largest single chemical plant under ene fence in the United States. Because of the nature of their operations, Dcw has an established' evacuation nian for air-borne chemical spills. 5 This facility is shown in Table 6. 14 r - y y .r.
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TASLE 2 SCHCOLS AND ENROLLMENT MIDLAND MIDLAND CCCM'"Y SCHCOLS GPADES ENRCLLMEN"' S-1. Leiphart 7 - 12 30 2279 Jefferson S-2. Midland Christian K 144 4417 W. Wackerly S-3. Cock Elementary K-6 382 5500 Perrine Road S-4. Woodcrest Elementary K-6 440 5500 Drake Street S-5. Siebert Elementary K-6 530 S7 Siebert Street 5-6. Jeffersen-Intermediate 7-9 1,011 300 Chapel Lane S-7. Adams Elementary K-6 462 1005 Adams Drive S-5. Goed Shepherd Lutheran 1-7 23 907 Mattes Drive S-9. H. H. Ccw High 10-12 1,357 3901 N. Saginaw Rd S-10. Northwced Institute Fr.-Sr. 1,750 3225 Cock S-ll. Ecly Scripture Lutheran 1-2 23 4525 Cock S-12. Sugnet Elementary K-6 307 3917 Jefferson Ave. 5-13. Plymouth K-6 345 1105 E. Sugnet S-14. Northeast Intermediate 7-9 806 1305 E.:Sugnet S-15. Chestnut Hill' Elementary K-6 490 3900 Chestnut Hill S-16. 31essed Sacrament K-6 172 3109 Suede S-17. Ashman Elementary Spec. Educ. 73 2900 Daner S-15. Chippevassee K-6 295 919 Smith , 1 i ye _a i l
1 Table 2 (Cont'd) MIDLAND CCCN"'Y SCHCOLS GRAOES ENROLL. VENT S-19. Carpenter- . K-6 295 1407-W. Carpenter S-20. St. John's Lutheran 3yr.-8 269 505 E. Carpenter S-21.- Central Intermediate 7-9 750 305 E. Rearden S-22. Eastlawn Elementary K-6 353 115 Eastlawn S-23. Midland Hich 10-12 1,420 1301 Eastlawn S-24. Parkdale Elementary K-6 355 1609 Eastlawn Drive S-25. St. Brigid's K-6 115 130 W. Larkin S-26. State Elementary Spec. Educ. 23 State Street. S-27 Lenyview Elementary K-6 408 337 Lemke S-23. Sullock Creek Elem. K-6 425 1037 Poseyville 5-29. Nindever Elementary K-4 119 32 5. Homer S-30. Pine River Elementary 1-6 312 1894 E. Prairie S-31. Bullock Creek Hich 7-8 368 644- S. Sandcur S-32. Sulleck Creek High 9 - 12 225
-1420 S. Sandcur S-33. Macleton Elementary K-6 147 3653 3ailey Bridce S-34. Zicn Lutheran 1-3 50 17903 Dice S-35. St. Peter K-8 ISO 2440 Rauchcl: .
5-36. Jchn Adams K-5 213 1601 S. Garfield Ave. S-37. "icn Lutheran K-S 139 1557 Siedler Rd. 5-38. Forest K-5 161 2169 N. Midland 1G
Table 2 (Con t 'd) MICLAND COUNTY SCHCOLS GRADES ENECLUTNT S-39. Auborn Elementary K-5 213 1601 S. Garfield Ave. S-40. Grace Lutheran 1-8 126 303 W. Ruth S-41. Trinity Lutheran K-8 128 20 E. Salzburg S-42. Freeland High School 9 - 12 539 3250 Webster S-43. Freeland Middle 4-8 640-710 Pawley S-44. Freeland Elementary K-3 485 307 S. 3rd Street S-45. .Floyd Elementary K-6 325 725 S. 8th 17
Table 3 Hospital Lccation & Capacity
' Map Facility Name Bed Identification and Location Capacity H-1 Midland Hospital Center 305 Crchard Drive Midland, Michigan Table 4 Criminal Detention Centers Map Facility Name Identification and Lecation Capacity J-l Midland County Jail 61 301'W. Main Street Midland, Michigan 18
,,- .-m -- , - -w -
Table 5 Recreational Areas Map Facility Name , Peak Identification and Location Population P-1 Apple Mountain Ski 1000 Rescrt Thomas Township P-2 Emerson Park 3500 P-3 Plymouth Park 2000 P-4 Central Park 1500 P-5 Fairgrounds N/A Table 6 Major Imployers Map Facility Name Peak Identification and Lccatien Pcpulation E-1 Ccw Chemical Michigan Division 5000 Midland, Michigan 0 19 ; i 1 I
All cf the above facilities require specific plans fer evacuation.. The evacuation times in this assessment, however, will not be affected by these facilities. Emergency Planning Areas In the event of an incident occurrence which would require evacuation, potential evacuees cannot be told to evacuate by compass direction. Therefore, easily identifiable physical boundaries, to which affected individuals can relate, must be established. Eigures 2, 3,-4 and 5 indicates these established planning zones, each of which.has been assigned an alphabetical designation to. facilitate discussion. Each planning zone has from one to ten sub:enes. The sub-
- enes are located so that large zones and heavy. populated areas are-subdivided which provides for even distribution of traffic over the roadway system. Pcpulation was divided by available information and use of 1ccal maps.
The physical limits of the 10-mile radius area have been adjusted to accommodate certain integral areas. These planning ene designations with a description of their bcundaries follcws: Zone A - Zone A involves Jercme Township in Midland County. The east boundary is formed by Lincoln and Hccer Tcwnships (Meridian Road) ; the south boundary is Lee Township; the west boundary is 8 Mile Road; and the north boundary is Blakely Road. The town of Sanford is included in the Emercency
. Planning Area.
Zone 3 - The southern pcrtion of Lincoln Tcwnship is Zcne , S. The east boundary is Larkin Tcwnship (Ccublin Road); the scuth boundary is Midland Tcwnship;
.the west-bcundary is Jerome Tcwnship (Meridian Road) ; 'and the north boundary is Scmbay Read.
The town of Averill is included. There are three subtenes.
-20
. . . . - . -., - ~ .,-
Zone C - Larkin Township south of Scmbay Road is included
.in Zone C. The east boundary is the Midland-Bay County Line Road; the south boundary is Midland Township (Wackerly Road) ; and the west boundary is-Lincoln Tcwnship (Doublin Road) . The towns cf Larkin and Hub are included. There are four subzones.
Zone D - The eastern portion of Lee Township form Zone D. The north boundary is Jerome Township; the east bounda:y is formed by Hemer and Mt. Haley Tcwn-ships (Meridian Read) ; the scuth boundary is Porter Tcwnship (Bradford Road) ; and the west boundary is 9 Mile Rcad. The towns of Ficyd, Dice Corner, and Gordonville are included. Ther= are two subzenes. i Zone E - All of Homer Township is included in Zcne E. The north boundary is Lincoln Township; the east ] boundary is Midland Township (Badeur Read) ; the south bcundary is Mt. Maley Township (Gordonville Road);~and the west boundary is formed by Jerome and Lee Townships (Meridian acad). There are five subzenes. Zone F - Zone F includes the City of Midland, Midland Tcwn-j ship, and the Midland Nuclear site. The north l , beundary is-Larkin Tcwnship (Wackerly Road); the east boundary is the Midland-Bay County Line Road; the scuth boundary is-Ingersoll Township (Gorden-ville Road); and the west boundary is Mcmer Township (Badour Road). The town of Bullock Creek is included. There are ten subzones. Zone G - The northeastern portion of Porter Tcwnship is included. The north boundary is Lee Tcwnship (Bradford Rcad); the east boundary is formed by Mt. Haley Township (Meridian Road); the scuth boundary is La Porto Road; and the west boundary
- is 9 Mile Road.
, Zone H - Mt. Haley Tcwnship is entirely included in Zone 2 H. The north boundary is Hccer Tcwnship (Gordon-ville Road); the ecst bcundary is Ingersoll Tcwnship (Badour Road) ; ' the -scuth boundary is the Midland-Saginaw County Line Read; and the west boundary is i formed by Lee and Porter Tcwnships (Meridian Road). The town cf Jam is included. There are four sub-zones. e 21 ) i
+ , , - - - - . - - - - - - - - - -, ~n, , . - . . n-- - -, -.n,... - - - - - - , , , , - - , . ,
Zone I - Ingersoll Township forms Zene I. The north boundary is . Midland Township . (Gordonville Road) ; the east boundary is Bay County (N. Orr Road) ; the south boundary is the Midland-Saginaw County Line Road; and the west boundary is Mt. Haley Township (Badour Road). Towns included.in this zone are Laporte, Lockport, and Poseyville. There are four sub enes. Zone J - Tittabawassee Township in Saginaw County forms Zcne J. The north boundary is Bay County (Cass Road); the east boundary is Bay County (Hospital Road /8 Mile Road); the scuch boundary is Kechville Township (Freeland Road) ; and the west boundary is Midland County (N. Orr Road). The tcwn of Freeland and the Tri-City Airport are included in Scne J. There are seven sub enes. one K - .The r.crthwest portien of Thomas Tcwnship forms Zone K. The north boundary is Tittabawassee Tcwnship (Freeland Road) ; the east boundary is Center Road; the scuch bcundary is Geddes Road;
- and the west boundary is Richland Township (N. Orr Road). The towns of Frcst and Dice are included.
Zone L - The northwest portien of Kochville *cwnship forms Zone L. The north boundary is Bay County (Freeland Rcad); the scuth bcundary is Pierce Road; and the west boundary is Tittabawassee Township (Hespital Road) . Sene M - The northern portion cf Richland Township forms zone M. The north boundary is the Midland-Saginaw County Line Road; the east bcundary is Thomas Tcwnship (N. Orr Rcad) ; the south boundary is Geddes Road; and the west boundary is Jcnesfield Township (N. Steel Road). The tcwn of Iva is included. There ara two sub:enes. Zone N - The northeast portion of Jonesfield Township forms tone N. The north boundary is the Midland-Saginaw Ccunty Line-Road; the east boundary is Richland Tcwnship (N. Steel acad) ; the scuch boundary is Frost Read; and the west boundary is Midland County (Meridian acad). 22
Zone 0 - Zone O in Bay County employs the western portion of Frankenlust Township. The north boundary is Williams Tcwnship (Cass Road); the east beundary is Fraser Read; the south boundary is Saginaw County (Freeland Road) ; and the west boundary is also Saginaw County (Hospital Road) . Zone ? - Williams Township is entirely included in Zone P. The north boundary is Beaver Township (Townline Read); the east boundary is Monitor Tcwnship (Eight Mile Road) ; the south boundary is Saginaw County (Cass Road); and the west boundary is the Midland-Bay County Line Road. The towns of Auburn and Fisherville are included in Zone P. There are four sub:enes. Zone Q - The western portion of Menitor Tcwnship forms Zcne Q. The northern boundary is Kawkavlin Tcwnship (Tewnline Road); the east boundary is Fraser Read; the south boundary is Frankenlust Township (Cass Road); and the west boundary is Williams Township (Eight Mile Read). There are two sub:cnes. Zone R - Zone R is located in the scuthwestern portion of Beaver Tcwnship. The north bcundary is Cottage Grove Read; the east bcundary is Kawkawlin Township (Eight Mile Road) ; the south boundary Willia =s Township (Townline Road) ; and the west boundary is the Midland-Bay County Line Road. The cwns of Beaver, Deel, Seidler, and Willard are included. There are three sub:enes. Zone 5 - The scuthwest portien of Kawkawlin Tcwnship forms Zcne S. The north boundary is Beaver Road; the east boundary is Seven Mile Read; the south boundary is Monicer Township (Tcwnline Road); and the west boundary is Beaver Township (Eight Mile Road). Zcne T - Zone T represents five recreational areas within the 10-mile EPZ. Sub:ene T-1: Apple Mountain Ski Area located off of River Road in Zone K. 23
Sub:ene T-2: Emersen Park located.in Zcne F cn the Tittabawassee River on the west side of the City of Midland. Sub ene T-3: Plymouth Park located in Zone F cn the north side of the City of Midland near the intersection of Wheeler Road and Swede Road. Sub ene T-4: Central Park located in Zone F in the City of Midland near Collins and Redd Streets. Sub ene T-5: County Fairgrounds located east of the Jack Barstow Airport-in Zone C. 24 trm --ea
CONCEPT OF EVACUATION The concept of evacuation in this assessment of the Mid-land evacuation times assumes that everycne in the 10-mile l radius will be evacuated outside of that 10-mile radius. There t is no assessment of the time to evacuate within the two or the five mile radius. It is assu=ed that all people that live within the 10-mile radius will be evacuated alone a scecified route known to them. The evacuation time will include the ti. e m from notification until the last vehicle crosses the 10-mile radius. Notification of Evacuation There are two distinct events which are necessary to initiate the evacuation. One event is the direct notification of public agencies, schools, major employees and other locations of large population concentrations. The second event is the Dissemination of the evacuation warning to the general population. ' Both of these events must include instruction regarding the sectors to be evacuated. The first event is assumed to be accomplished by telephone from the Emergency Operating Center to the af fected group. Ideally, the second event would be implemeated by a public warning system, which would combine an acoustical warning system by sirens or horns, supplemented by instructions over selected radio and television Broadcast stations. In the particular site, no advanced system of this type is in place. Therefore, the predominant mode of this notification is by use of vehicles and helicopters with mounted loudspeakers. A specified message from these vehicles would indicate that an evacuation has been recommended and to turn on their radios for additional information. Radio stations must be provided with complete, accurate and current information. T2ey should have prior zone descriptions and repeat recommended
; outing information. There should be phone ru.=hers available for individuals to call should.th'ese people recuise special evacuation assistance or additional infer =ation.
25
Public Response T.ime-There can be up to four activities preceding the evacuatien frcm the home which can be statistically distributed in time: (1) Receive warning, (2) Leave work, (3) Travel home, and (4) 1 Evacuate home. Each of response times may have different dis-l ( tributions, depending upon the particular senario being assessed. 1 f Receipt of Notification - Receipt of notificaticn is assumed to approach a nornal distribution in time; therefore, the accumu-lated probability approaches an "S" curve. This distribution can be approximated by three straigh lines. One line, passing through the 50 percent, 16 percent and 84 percent distributions, represents two time increments. One straight line frem =ero to 16 percent represents one time increment. The third straight line frem 84 to 100 percent represents one time Ancrement. It is assumed that the time increments are five minutes , so the total time for receipt of notification is 20 minutes. This distribution means that 16 percent will have been nctified within the first five minutes, 50 percent will have been notified in ten minutes , 84 percent will have been notified in 15 minutes, and 100 percent will have been notified in 20 minutes. (See volume I for more detail.) Departure Frem Place of Work - Departu're from the place of work is assumed to approach a normal distribution curve in the same manner as receipt of notification. Distributien is approxi-mately by three straight lines and four five-minute time increments. , The distribution assumes that 16 percent will depart from their place of work in five minutes, 50 percent will depart in ten minutes, 94 percent will depart in fifteen' minutes, and 100 percent will depart in twenty minutes (see volume I for more , detail). 26
1 Travel From Work to Home - The time of travel to the home approaches normal distribution of time in the same manner as the two previous responses. Under normal conditions this distribution assumes that 16 percent will travel to home in five minutes, 50 percent in. ten minutes, 84 percent in fifteen minutes, and 100 percent will travel to home in twenty minutes. This distribution is expanded in certain scenarios, specifically that of the adverse weather scenario. Departure From Home - Departure from home also approaches a normal distribution in time and the accumulated probability approaches an "S" curve. The distribution is approximated by three straight lines in the same manner as the above three response. The activity is distributed over eight five-minute periods for a total cf 40 minutes. The distribiition indicates that eight percent will depart from home in the first five minutes, 16 percent in ten minutes , 33 percent in fif teen
- minutes, 50 percent in twenty minutes, 67 percent in twenty-five minutes, 84 percent in thirty minutes, 92 percent in 35 minutes, and 100 percent will have departed home within forty minutes. (See Volume I for further details.)
Evacuation Link / Node Network The evacuation routes for each centroid has been manually established and coded for computer evaluation. Figures 6-9 indicates the ' coded network and the evacuation route for each centroid. Table 9 contains the network descriptions. The table contains two node numbers..for each end of a given link, the distance between nodes in miles, the assumed speed for that link, its _ total capacity in vehicle per hour in the direction , of evacuation, and the identity of the roadway. Fm example, j the first link in Table 9 is from Node 10 to Node 12. The i distance is 1.30 miles, the assigned speed. is 40 miles per hour, the capaci*y is'1,000 v.P.H., and the roadway segment i is on Waldo Road. The values assigned to each' link 27
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TABLE 7 NT.TUORK DESCRIPTION WDE v:DE CIST iPEED C/W Roadway Identity D ;2 :.40 4.0 ;X0 WALDO RD.
- 11 ;5 2.3e !!.0 ;;00 JEFFERSCN RD.
42 ;I I.10 4.0 .000 WALDO RD. 13 12 t.70 4.0 t;00 WALDO RD.
- 14 107 ).70 !0.0 4000 I-10 14 143 1.10 50.J 000 I-10 17 I;e ;.70 !0.0 4000 I-10
-13 7' 2.4 4.0 ;A0 WALDO RD.
d ;34 }.20 ;-).J !00 RAMP 3 21 ..;0 50.0 4000 I-10 21 2 1.00 !0.0 4000 I-10
~2 23 1.*0 !0 0 4 00 I-10
;3 3;3 1.30 50.0 4000 I-10 24 26 1.30 40.0 1000 MCNRDE RD.
- 25 18 2 00 4.0 1000 MCNROE RD.
26 ?6 1.00 4.0 ;000 EASTMAN RD. 27 300 1.00 40.0 ;t:0 EASTMAN RD.
- ;3 ;;5 * ;0. 40.0 !;00 MIDLAND RD.
2? N
- 30. 40.0 I;00 SAGINAW-MIDLAND RD 20 ;;0 :.20 4.0 Ic00 SAGINAW-MIDLAND RD.
-11 1 0 1.40 40.0 IWu MIDLAND RD.
I; 13 .IQ 40.0 .;W POSEYVILLE RD. II 14 :.00 4.0 ;A0 STEWART RD.
!4 45 ).!0 40.0 .:00 SASSE P.D.
!! Je 1 50 4.0 .000 GORDONVILLE RD.
36 !7 t. 0 4.J ;';')0 RIVER RD. 27 il 1.00 40.0 300 RIVER RD. ii 39 t.30 4.0 300 RIVER RD. 17 134 1.00 40.0 700 RIVER RD. 0 1 2.00 40 .0 3!0 RIVER RD. 41 4; 0.70 40 ;000 RIVER RD. 42 ;;2 0.4 40 ;000 RIVER RD. 43 :19 1.00 40.0 1000 FORDNEY RD. 44 45 0 30 40.0 .000 FORDNEY RD. 45 313 :.30 40 0 ;300 FORDNEY RD. Se 47 :.70 40 0 10C0 POSEYVILLE RD. 47 40 1 10 40.0 ;000 POSEYVILLE RD. 48 49 1 70 4.J 3 00 POSEYVILLE RD. 49 50 1.00 40.0 im TITTABAWASSEE RD.
!0 124 1.4 4.0 ;000 IVA RD .
51 111 0 40 !0.0 4500 M-20 52 53 2.00 4.0 1000 CNIPPEWA RIVER RD. 28
D**D
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TABLE 7 NE':"40RK DESCRIPTION W @ E JIST 37ED GP Roadway Identity
,3 54 2,10 4.0 1:00 ~HIPPEWA RIVER RD.
.' 4 3;9 :,20 g.0 1;00 CHIPPEWA RIVER RD.
k 54 0.70 40.0 ;000 MERIDIAN RD.
$7 0,M 40.0 1000 GORDCNVILLE RD.
;7 HMR M.
a '.30 40.0 1000 HOMER RD. 3 9 1.70 40.0 1000 HOMER RD. 59 h 2.00 40.0 1000
.a t 1. '0 40.0 1000 LAPORTE RD. .
30 61 114 1.00 4.0 1000 CHAPIN RD.
$2 316 0.10 40.0 1000 CHAPIN RD.
63 317 0.M 40.0 !000 LAPORTE RD. 44 $5 1 00 40.0 1000 PLMOLE -RD. 45 64 0.40 40.0 1000- PLMOLE RD. 64 141 0.30 40.0 1000 MIDLAND - RD. 67 129 1.00 M.0 300 MIDLAND RD. 58 of 1.40 40.0 1000 MIDLAND RD. 39 305 1.80 40.0 1000 MIDLAND RD. 70 71 0.M 4.0 ;M GARFIELD RD. 71 72 1.M 4.0 ::00 WHEELER RD. 72 73 1.00 40.0 1000 WHEELER RD. 304 0.;0 40.0 ;cco WHEE
- ER RD.
73 74 3 5 0.70 40.0 IX0 EIGHT MILE RD. 75 7e 0. 0 40.J 1000 GARFIELD RD. 76 303 1.50 40.0 iM GARFIELD RD. 77 78 0 15 20.0 ;!00 RAMP 73 N .40 !0.0 4000 I-10 79 321 0.50 40.0 ;000 WACKERLY RD. 50 134 1.00 !0.0 4 00 I-10 i: 341 0.40 40.0 ;000 WALDO RD. 34 85 1.20 40.0 ;000 SAGINAW RD. i5 is 0.50 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. 36 97 1.;0 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. 37 at 0.60 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. 33 99 0.M 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. 39 M 1 10 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. M 322 0.30 40.0 1000 SAGINAW RD. I 75 79 0.60 40.0 ;;00 STARK RD. 76 27 1.00 40.0 1000 EASTMAN RD. 77 75 1.00 15.0 ;o00 CENTROID CCNNECTOR M 95 .00 40.0 1000 STARK RD. 99 324 0.20 40.0 1000 STARK RD. 101 tot 1.40 50.0 4500 M-20 29
D**D n'D"(mq'Vd' . oof v A LJ1u
- R al._a TABLE 7 NETWORK CESCRIPTICN taGK W M OIST UE3 :# Roadway Identity
;02 105 1.00 50.0 4!00 M-20 iO4 0.30 !0.0 2!;0 M-20
.3 D4 U1 1.00 !0.0 4:00 M-20 G5 D3 v.70 50.J 4500 M-20
- ;04 107 0.26 20.J ;:00 RAMP
- 107 ;a 2.a0 50 0 .x0 I-10
- 0S ?3 0.e4 !0.0 1000 M-20 09 I'$ 0 30 40 0 10e PINE RIVER RD.
.10 ;1: :.00 40 0 ;000 MERIDIAN RD.
.1 i: 1.30 30 0 MQQ M-20
- 2 317 2.00 40.0 WQc MERIDIAN RD.
- 13 We 3.ys 40.0 :000 MIDLAND RD.
1:4 135 1 10 30 1000 EASTMAN RD. 115 :9 .20 40.0 ;;00 S AGIN AW-MIDLAND RD. Ils i2 1,!0 40.0 ;M0 CMAPIN RD. 117 309 1.00 4.0 1000 FREELAND RD. 19 44 1.30 40.0 a00 FCRCNEY RD.
- 20 31 1.10 40.0 3000 SAGINAW-MIDLAND RD.
311 0.oo 40.0 3000 SAGINAW-MIDIAND RD. 1:1
- 22 ISO 0.50 40.0 1000 RIVER RD.
45 1.00 ;3.0 1000 CENTROID CCNNEC'CR 1:3 115 :. I 20.0 ;000 IVA RD. 124 1:4 1.20 40.0 1000 FREELAND RD. 125 117 :.30 M.0 ;000 FREELAND RD. . 126 127 1:a 1.30 40.0 1000 GARFIELD RD. t3 .4 0.70 4.0 3 00 MIDLANG RD. 29 130 0.20 33.0 1:00 PATRICK RD. (31 0.M 30 : 00 RAMP 130 131 ;4 2.00 50.0 4000 I- 10 in 0.40 H.0 .3 RUSSELL RD. 132 114 0.70 U.0 1000 SAGINAW RD.
- 33 134 ;0 1 10 !0.0 4000 I- 10 17 0.10 U.0 0 00 EASTMAN RD.
135 10 1.10 H.0 .000 ASHMAN ST.
- i34
- 6 0.00 40.0 1000 MCNRCE RD.
1.37 17; 0.30 U.0 :000 STURGECN RD.
- Je SAL 7.3URG RD.
139 307 0.30 J0.0 1000 ! 40.0 0 00 MCNRCE RD. 140 137 1.00 47 1.20 40 0 300 MIDLAND RD. 141 j 20.0 1500 RAMP
-442 143 0.14 -
143 17 1.30 50 0 4000 I- 10 150 312 0.50 40.0 1000 RIVER RD. 30 t I i
l j l 2 1 TABLE 7 NETWORK CESCRIFTICN MX <2 Mii IFED !W Readway Identity
.!: ;!2 3.;0 H. .M0 FAIRGROUNDS RD.
.!: ;3 :.;) 0.} .00 EASTMAN RD.
;!I ;!4 0.30 H.0 .00G EASTMAN RD.
.!4 !; :.70 !0.0 4!GO M-20
.H ;!: 3.30 H.0 3 00 ASHMAN ST.
.!: ;!4 1.;0 H.G .:00 ?INE ST. TO M-20
- 120 ::: 1.M 4.0 I;40 MIDLAND RD.
-at 4; I.30 e:.] .;00 VASOLO RD.
-;32 .5; :.0J 4.3 !!; RIVE R BD .
.23 .o; . I.) 4.0 :00 RIVER RD.
. ::4 4 0.;0 4. ; W RIVER RD.
. ;i! .23 :.;} 40.J IM RIVER RD.
-;sa ;:! :.30 4.0 200 RIVER RD.
-;:7 ;so .;0 40 0 .00 RIVER RD.
. :s
. .33 . 00 H.0 . 00 STURGECN RD.
. .:7 :C :.;0 4.0 .30 CARTER FD .
;0 ;9 0 30 H.} ;!?0 SAGINAW-MIDLAND RD.
- .7; ;a4 1.!J 4.0 .:00 STORGECN RD.
- ;73 174 :.;0 4.0 M0 MIDLAND RD.
.74 7! :.00 4.4 N MI:: LAND RD.
.! :s2 ).!) 4.J iM4 SARFIELD RD.
!0; 79 ).!O ;!.; .. M A-1 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!?; :s .. 0 .!.5 .:00 3-1 CENTROID CONNEC"OR I;I ;g ).3 ;!.0 ;S0 3-2 CENTROID CONNFCTOR
!04 i9 1.10 ;!.0 .M 3-3 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!H E :.;0 '!.0 . 40 C-1 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!06 !? 1.a0 ;!.0 .Z C-2 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!07 0; 0.3 ;!.) . .G* C-3 CENTROID CCNNECTCR
!;4 :s 2 30 ;!.3 '000
. C-4 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!a? .26 1. 0 'f.0
. .50 D-1 CENTROID CCNNEC"'OR i3 !! .4 ;!.4 . }0 0-2 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
- 0- ;.!J i!.0 .0v0 E-1 CENTROID CCNNECTCR
!1; .:I . 30 .!.2 ;000 E-2 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!;; ;;4 ..I; ;!.0 ;;00 E-3 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!.. !6 }.50 ;!.0 ;;& E-4 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!;5 is 0.;0 ;5.0 .50 E-3 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!;: ;I; 0.10 !!.3 ;;00 F-1 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!;- 138 ).;0 ;!.3 ;MO F-2 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!;S !; 0.;0 ;5 0 ;000 F-3 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!;7 12 '.30 ;!.J ;000 F-4 CENTROID CCNNECTCR
!;0 ;S 0.;0 ;!.0 ;000 F-5 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!;; ;;3 0.30 ;5.0 ;000 F-6 CENTROID CCNNEC"'OR
!;2 ;70 ;.;0 15 0 ;!00 F-7 CENTROID CCNNECTOR 22.
l mm- c -
~0 i.. .
D
.v o o _ A J$//d TABLE 7 -
1 NE"dORK DESCRI?TICN MGM Nt!K ' DIST SPED CAP Roadway' Identity
!:3 $ ).40 ;!.0 ;MO F-8 CINTROID CO:CIECTOR
!;s ;;4 0.50 ;!.0
. 00 G-1 CINTROID CI:C!ECTOR
!;! !6 ;.~0 ;!.0 .MG H-1 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!:s ; N :.;0 ;!.0 !a H-2 CINTROID CONNEC*OR i:7 23 3.oc ;:.0 200 H-3 CENTRCID CON!!ECTOR
!;3 i; J.f0 ;!.0 ;;;c H-4 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!9 ;27 0 20 ;!.0 .0C I-l CINTROID .CO!CECTOR 90 to 0.;0 ::.0 ;00t I-2 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!31 44 0.o0 ;!.0 . ;(0, I-3 CINTROID CCNNECTOR
!3: 43 0.-) ;i.0 1N9. I-4 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!33 .27 3.;0 .!.. .30 J-1 CENTROID CO!CECTOR
!34 ;af :.;) ;:.0 ;00( J-2 GNTROID CONNECTOR US :oS ).30 .!.0 30c J-3 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!34 ;; 0.;0 : .0 ;000 J-4 CINTROID CCNNECTOR 537. 32 1.40 ;!.0 I:0 J-5 CINTROID CONNECTOR 534 a0 0.70 ; .0 ;;00 J-3 CINTROID CONNECTOR n9 4: 0.9 ::.0 ;NC J-7 CINTROID CCNNICTOR 540 ;;I :.00 ::.0 Ron K-1 CENTROID CCNNECTOR
!4; 3:0 0.!0 15 0 1A L-1 CINTROID CCNNECTOR
!42 44 .70 ;:.0 iMO M-1 CNTROID CINNEC"'OR
!43 ;;4 ).90 ;!.0 ;%0 M-2 CINTROID CONNICTOR
!a4 a2 0 70 .!.0 ;MG N-1 CINTROID CCN ECTOR 54! !)4 . 30 ;!.0 .* O-1 CINTROID CONNECTOR 543 ; :.40 ;!.0 . M*. P-1 CINTROID CCNNEC*OR
!47 34 2.44 ;!.) Ct P-2 CENTROID CONNECTOR
!48 ;73 0.30 ; .0 ;0h P-3 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!49 na ).;0 ;!.0 10c; P-4 CINTROID CONNEC*OR
!0 73 3.30 ;!.0 ;;00 Q-1 CINTROID CON !ICTOR
!5; ;I9 0.70 ;: 0 0 00 Q-2 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!!: 7s 7.40 1!.0 ;;00 R-1 CINTROID CCN!ECTOR
!3 10 .30 ;!.c ;X0 R-2 CINTRCID CCtCECTOR
!!4 8' ;.30 ;!.0 ;000 R-3 CINTROID CCIDECTOR
!!! '4'0.30 ;!.0 ;000 S-1 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!!a ;0 1.30 ;!.0 ;00G T-1 CINTROID CCCECTOR
!!7 ::3 0.40 ;!.0 ;000 T-2 CINTROID CONNECTOR
!!a ;J4 c.90 ;!.J 3 00 T-3 CINTROID CCNNECTOR 5:7 ;!! 0 30 ;!.0 ;?00* T-4 CINTROID CCNNICTOR
!ac ;5; 0.30 ;!.J 0 00 T-5 CINTROID CCNNICTOR
!4; 3 ) 40 ;!.0 : ;500. F-9 CINTROID CCNNECTOR
-!s2 ::. 1.45 ::.0 ;500 ?-10 CINTROID CCNNECTOR 32
,. y - , - _ ,. , ,
represent the best judgement of these factors considering roadway geometry, width, terrain and other f actors. Many of the evacuation zones are rather large and may have several subzones. These subzones are associated with population centers and are located to provide for a logical evacuation of the zovo,. The capacities established for each link are not the capacities that could be expected under normal circumstances. The evacuation of a ten-mile area has all the vehicles headed in the same direction, with the possible exception of emergency vehicles coming into the area. Because of the directional ficw ' and controlled routings, lane capacities are generally larger Another than could be expected uno 'r normal circumstances. important factor that contributes to smoother flow and greater capacities is.that all drivers of vehicles on any roadway segment are of one accord and are headed for the same -location. Generally, they are probably the most seasoned, experienced All drivers know that they of the drivers in a household. must evacuate the area and cross the ten-mile zone. The number Table 3 indicates the vehicles on.each link. of vehicles is determined by the population to be evacuated and based upon the assumption that each vehicle will evacuate 3.0 people. It has been cbserved in other actual evacuations that about 99 percent of the evacuees leave by private automobile. ~ Therefore, this is a conservative assumption that all people are to be evacuated by automobile. The number of vehicles on each link is a summation of all the vehicles from the various subzcnes that use any specific link of roadway. Table 9 describes the evacuation route with a link-nede description by centroid. This table gives the numbers of each mcde thrcugh which each evacuation route pa.ises. Table 7 describes each link in this evacuation route and Table 8 indi-cates the number'of vehicles on each link. i I i 33 l
"D *'D W}M 13_ h lr"d a 0{voA O A.
i TABLE 8 EVACUATION ROUTE LINK NODE DESCRIPTION BY CENTR.OID
*CX to 6 1 '4!( 12 613 *CM 14
'M WX 1 4X : W 3 40X 4 W 5 *CX 4 6 7 6 3 6 9 501 79 3:1 41
!C: 95 3:4 31 90 95 99 3:4 32 !03 P3 504 39 *) 3:2
!04 7 3M C:
74 27 300 140 137 26
!07 171 03 4 27 300
!C8 :4 :6 04
!09 MG 3:1
't
'10 5! !4 319
.04 ;01 Me !*0
~; :1 *: C: 103 101 ;29 3:3 512 1:2 104 i:
M4 '01 ;!8 I:0 37 3 9 e6 41 !!6 s: 316 114 4 C !8 (* 90 39 10 3:2
!;! !s 37
-:! I:3 21 22 23 19 134 20 133 114 135 F1 !!6 II:
27 700 140 .137 :s 76
!1? ;v3 !!9 171 7:
54 319
!!6 ft til 5: T3
~3 40 41 4: 12 38 39 164 33 34 3 I4 37
?* !!? 3 1:0 112 140 121 311 1:0 31
'~1 29 115 :9 30 r5 13 143 17 !04 t-
'** ;'! :-4 107 34 l
l
l [j - TABLE 8 (Cont'd) Ling 61M263M4 M 5 G 6 M 7 6 3 M 9 G u G u G 1 G 13 G 14 131 14 107 16 143 17 L 522 170 109 130 F7 le 37 af 39 M 3:2 F8 C3 34 35 13 32 301 F9 Set to 12 20 21 0 .3 33 77 73 30 134
!a2 11 25 18 F10 C4 139 31s G1 53 2 19 a0 41 lie a2 314 n1 CA 110 112 31 7 H2 H3 C7 $3 117 114 32 316 H4 C8 41 44 4: 313 to7 164 165 1a3 16 tal 43 119
!! $29 48 49 50 124 315 530 46 47 I2 48 49 50 12 4 315 I3 531 119 44 45 313 I4 53: 43 127 1:4 117 309 J1 533 30 120 31 160 121 III 2 534 139 44 45 313 J3 535 165 133 142 tal 43 119 13 124 117 309 J4 534 43 119 44 45 313 537 162 161 J5 J4 53h 160 11 311 539 42 122 150 312' J7 K1 540 13 45 313 35
g,yg 3 0 %. g g A\- o A e ~: A :n[i= TABLE 8 (Cont'd)
.W W1'W 2 e 3 a 4 m: 6& G 7 WX 3 50;E F G ;0 $0 X 11 G 12 W 13 <X ;4 i
. !41 310 il !*2 44 45 !!3
+2 !43 124 315
*1 !*4 32 Ile 1 !41 ~ 708
- 1 !a4 70 71 72 73 704 F2 !47 44 35 54 141 47 :3 s4 47 305 73 544 ;73 174 17! 142 ;43 .7 I:4 74 !49 64 69 305 31 !!0 73 304 22 !!! ;37 307 41 !!2 7s 203 42 !!3 702 33 !!4 77 75 76 703 31 !!! 14 325 T1 !34 150 !!2 72 !57 !3 54 11 111 !2 !3 54 !;9 73 !!a 134 to 12 ;3 32 201
's !59 ;!! !!4 ;!4 31 111 52 !3 34 319 75 544 !!! 152 04 74 27 200 36
* ~ ~ -
D*'D (% 1 N}r uk m 0 d' S o 8L TABLE 9 VEHICLES ON EACH LINK NCRMAL WEEKDAY 53 54 !!i 30 85 15 !* 318 !7! 10 C 1F
. 2.. .
. .... a. ..,
.1 a.c .< .
13 .m... .
.. u !i !5 *:;
14 107 :::e : .i la 143 3449
*C H ::.
3Ce ,. ... :; 17
.3
.,., .. t e' I;: n.
1: :p In-
,t-
- p. p. .-
.,s ,,
.. 4 :=. 4 ..2
.. .. 4.2
. e.. ..
.a .. ...
$$ ;4 ';I 3 K3 '!E
.. e-
'.s
.a a: 39 ;44*
66
- ! 15 CX ti 3C! 14
- o 96 00' ,,
4.
;' 300 :.1:
4 .-
,,, .... a. . .
.t
. .. 7: ~3
;? 30 lei! x, 4 I'..
.. 100 , ... :..
3,. 14 ..~
'! 72 *:~
n E. ;;4; ~
- 2C2 !C n 34 114t 114; E 78 CX, '
34 35 a 20 1000
;141 n 34 N 33 C'
- 3. 37 n41 i: .74 ::1.
3- 33 ;;4; ..
- v . .*.:
36 39 1:41 3* I' :'# 35 164 1141 :.4 E! i: 40 41 114! 3 32 41 4: 1:41 .. 42 C: 130E .. 88 43 119 90 ii -' 13:t 233 ., a 4 pr .. .. . 45 3,.3 .... :, :: .. M 4,. .:: Y: 2 C.!
"ii g. ,,
47 as .
.. .r 4 49 4e.. ;,. .*
4g 46 49 $0 4r " E' 204 448 E2 50 124 101 Of 111 362 4I4
!! 100 105 e,: g 3sg 37 e
-e ,
9**y Aj jW V oo dI '[dl Nb}' a TABLE 9 (Cont ',d) 103 104 648 ':3 154 3
- 04 101 H2 1:4 51 0
*$ 03 434 155 !!e 0
- 10e 107 ;333 Ife 154 0 107 la !a49 les 1:1 04:
.78 I:0 ;*6e 141 43 64*
109 313 12 :e* 1:1 64~ 1:2 :12 58 1s3 16: ::: 11 52 388 144 40 1:41
!!: 3*7 '4
. 14 ist '"
113 104 1333 :e4 li: 27*
- 14 133 1332 147 lee 27*
11! 29 te45 :44 :Ji e!!
- 16 62 347 16' ( 34:
117 209 791 '0
.e '
- .e 1:9 44 !C9 171 140 :e:
- 20 II :*:7 73 ;4 ;;.
1:1 311 2215 :*4 :7! :3 122 !!O 1308 :5 :40 sie 1:3 45 :44 551 79 ::: 128 31! !ad !i: c 34 1:5 1:4 500 ::3 96 ;;
;26 117 781 **4 :: *.
.v . ...
127 1*6 ~!! te! 3: :
- 5 sa 4:3 L --
;;9 130 : 44 50: ;': II-
*30 131 Cie 5 24 :33 131 14 Coe *:: :Ge Jo.
II: 133 1332 ::: :: ;;- 133 *4 133:
- 10; 43,
. 34 0 .as ... ... ..
133 19 1332 ::3 :04 ;34 134 10 0 !!4 :s ,; 137 24 865 ::: 3: ::: 38 171 6~9 -
.n... .a.- .-..-
a 13' 307 is !.* :4- .:: 140 137 956 ...
- e. ...
141 $7 425 !.. 3: ;;;; 142 143 934
.r. .- .: . ..:e 143 17 4:8s <.
.. .... a- ..:.
50 312 1308 .e 1y. ..e.. 1!1 IN ) I.I $4 e!f l'. 24 0 5:4 109 :s l i 38 1
t 1 I D{ hD{ TABLE 9 i (Cont'd) i
!!! '8 I4 i4 ;;3 f3
- !.'7 33 - :2 C3 21 26 C9 ;67 :P.
!10 4 139 40 ;30 C1
!32 43 ;i7 U3 *;7
;?1 C4 147 I42
- s3 ;!0
.'35
,-= '80 en II7 16 120
!!8 160 28
;67 09 42
!40 123 *64
'41 Ito 147
!*2 44 1:9
!43 124 77 i
fed $2 67
!4! - Da :70 144 70 :P.
'47 44 4:3
!a8 ;~J FI4 tot 24 ;G i!G 7' 09
!!! ;39 as: ,
'" 'h 14 23 20 2 49
!!4 :7 - 247 25 74 ?1 -
!!e !!4 0
!!7 L',3 3
!!8 - !!4 3 29 :S 0 I64 ;!1 0 ,
I 141 10 1397 Is* 11 - 1:30 39 i
- T
1 I Evacuation Netwcrk In developing the evacuation network every effort was
- made to provide travel radially away frem the site. The netwerk includes all types of roadways, freeways, major thorough fares, and local streets.
Freeways and controlled access facilities were used where practical, however; these facilities are severely hampered by the lack of capacity at incarchanges. Therefore, the use of the conventional street systen was used where possible. The network also strived to include well-kncwn facilities, easily identifi-able by the local residents when assigning an evacuation route. As stated earlier, the EPZ for Midland included municipalities in two counties. Each of the Townships within the EPZ was given a letter designation for identification purposes. Where a Township was subdivided and nenbered, the letter designation was suf fixed with a number. The e7acuation network was assigned numbers at each inter-section to represent netwcrk nodes. The link nede network of routes frem each centroid is sequentially numbered so that the evacuation route can be identified. The network is coded to show mcde pairs, distance between ncdes, number of lanes, speed, and the. capacity of the route. Figures thrcugh depict-the link-node network by sectors. Directional Flow - All network routings will operate as two-way facilities. In the case of a two-lane roadway, the cutbound lane is for evacuacion with the inbound lane used for emergency vehicles. A three-lane f acility assumes two evacuation 40 y y --. , _ _ , , .--.--e.
A four lane facility assumes two lanes and one inbound lane. evacuation lanes and two emergency vehicle lanes. A six lane f acility assumes four evacuation lanes and two amargency veheile lanes. Travel Oceeds - Speeds were assigned to each link depend-Freeway speeds were assigned ing on the character of the roadway. at 50 M.P.H. with ramp speeds at 20 M.P.H. For two lane road-and 30 M.P.H. ways, State Highways were assigned at 35 M.P.H. for roadways of lesser quality. Centroid connectors were con-sidered as local _ streets and assigned a speed of 15 M.P.H. Cacacities - Capacities were assigned to the evacuation network to reflect emergency conditions with traffic flowing in one direction, occasional emergency vehicles opposing the traffic flow and problem areas controlled by special traffic features. Under these conditions the folicwing capacities were assigned:
- 1. Freeway - 2,000 vehicles per lane per hour; therefore two evacuation lanes wculd be 4,000 per hour.
- 2. Two-lane Facilities - A capacity of 1,500 vehicles per lane per hour was assinged to State Highways and other high type roadways and 1,000 vehicles per lane per hour for a roadway of lesser _ quality.
- 3. Interchanges and Ramps - 1,500 vehicles per hour.
Scecial Traf fic Control Stratecies - In order to Ottain maximum capacity on the network, control critical inter-section movements and provide ' direction fer ccmplex evacuation routings, special traffic control strategies are imperative. l I 41
4 h i In'some instances major population centers were split to avoid overicads to the network and produce abnormally long - delays. These locations will require special handling to insure that motorists utilize their assigned reuting for evacuation. Interchanges and ramps which affect the capacity that can be leaded to the nain line will need special control strategies. Special traffic control measures will be required at the intersection of Jefferson Road and Monrce north of the City of Midland. Traffic en Monroe Road will be westbcund originating from subzone C-4. Vehicles frem subtene F-10 will be northbound on Jefferson Road. At the intersection, all northbcund vehicles will be directed eastbound on Monroe Rcad creating two-way evacuation traffic. This same strategy also cccurs at the inte;- section of Monrce Road and Waldo Road. The intersection of Midland Road and Garfield Road is another example where special centrol will be necessary. East-beund vehicles approaching the intersection will need to be split according to their surene crigin. Subrene P-3 vehicles and will be diverted south to Interstate 10 via Garfield Road, This sub:ene P-2 vehicles will centinue east on Midland Road. strategy also occurs at Vasold on River Road where subzones I-1, J-3, and J-5 will be diverted west on Vasold Road and subzcne F-4 will be directed thrcugh on River Road. On-site traffic.managemenu personnel will be required at all significant intersections to insure that pre-assigned evacuation routes are followef. Scecial Transportation Recuirements Transportation requirements for special problem groups, such as non-car-cwning families, hospitals, schools, jails, etc., 42
d The were not included in the evacuation time assessment. frem assumption was that all families would evacuate as a unit home. This would preclude the requirement for evacuating scheci See numbers 7 and students f:.cm schcol to outside the risk area. 8 in the su= mary of assumption below. Sector Evacuation Evacuation Plans are usually set up on a sector er quadrant basis.
*his assessment has not been concerned with segmenting the 10-mile radius. The assessment locked at total evacuation However, this dces not preclude evacuatien by f cm the EP Z .
quadran-J. Quadrants can be examined f cm the data in this report. Sector evacuatien can be approximated by the selection of appropriata planning =cnes. i i 43 I i
EVACUATION TIME ASSESSMENT 1 a As stated earlier, the evacuation time assessment has assumed f that all of the fenily .will. leave home in one car as a unit. The assessment time includes mobilization time and travel time to evacuate the 10-mile radius. Mobilization time includes notifi-cation; leave work or school; travel home; and, evacuate home. Four conditions were-measured in assessing evacuation time. These conditions are presented in the following:
- 1. Normal' Workday - Workers at work; children in school.
- 2. Nichttime - Most everyone at home.
- 3. Summertime - Recreation peak.
- 4. Adverse Conditions - (Snowstorm, ice storm).
The assessment was performed by computer to a process de-scribed in some detail in Volume I. Normal Workday Table 10 presents.the travel times for each centroid to evacuate the.10-mile radius. The most critica1' area within the 10-mile radius is the evacuation of thecity of Midland and Mid-land Township. This planning zone has an estimated population of 43,691. Table 10 lists the evacuation times by centroid for the four scianarios listed above. The maximum evacuation time is twc hours and 27 minutes for centroid I-1 during the normal weekday. These evacuation times include receipt of warning, leaving work, travel home, departure from home, network travel and delay time. Nichttime Condition This condition _ assumes that most people are at home; there-fore, only notification time ~ and the time to evacuate home pre-l vail under this assessment. Because the aasu=ptions to leave work or school and the travel time'to hone do not have to be considered, the time to evacuate the-EP: for each :ent centroid is-reduced approximately 15 minutes. 44 -. . L
.--- v , , - . - ,. ,, ,,, . . , - _ - , < _ _ . _ . --...m , - , - , - - - - -}}