ML19339B630

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Forwards Graphs Showing Results of Sensitivity of chi-square Test as Applied to Model NAC-1D.Chi-square Test Is Capable of Detecting Cavity Configuration Changes Representative of Buckling
ML19339B630
Person / Time
Site: 07106698
Issue date: 10/02/1980
From: Clay Johnson
NAC INTERNATIONAL INC. (FORMERLY NUCLEAR ASSURANCE
To: Macdonald C
NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY & SAFEGUARDS (NMSS)
Shared Package
ML19339B620 List:
References
17575, CRJ-80-158-ETS, NUDOCS 8011070350
Download: ML19339B630 (2)


Text

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< 01) 47Ce44 Tetex' 57275 October 2,1980 CRJ/80/158/ETS Mr. C. E. MacDonald Chief, Transportation Certification Branch Division of Fuel Cycle and Material Safety U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.

20555

Dear Mr. MacDonald:

As we discussed this morning, we ran a few cases to check the sensitiv-ity of the chi-square test as we applied it to the NAC-10 cask.

The attached graphs show the results of these tests..

We artificially changed three data points in each of three samples used in applying the chi-square test to the cavity dimensions of the D cask.

The graphs are plots of what happens to the chi-square value as a function of artificially changed diametral differences.

For example, in the first case, we changed three dimensions in the cavity zone between 4.5 and 36.5 inches.

The changes were made at locations 18.5, 24.5 and 30.5 inches, where the original changes from the 1970 to the average of the 1980 values were

.004,

.006 and +.005 inches, respectively.

The original chi-square value for this zone of the cask was 59.65 with boundaries at 36.7 to 60.4.

When we changed the three points by 15, 30 and 45 mils, the chi-square value as well as the chi-square boundaries changed and, as noted on the graph, we exceed the chi-square boundary when we artificially changed the values by 30 mils.

Based on these comparisons, we conclude that the chi-square test is cacable of detecting cavity configuration changes that would be representa-tive of buckling while at the same time the chi-square test is not so sensitive that it lill give us an excessive number of false indications of cavity configuration changes.

We will be happy to discuss this further with you, t

Sincerely, NUCLEAR ASSURANCE CORPORATION

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f /Y.& 4<N CharleT'k,. Johnson Vice President Engineering & Transportation Services CRJ:cnr 801107036&

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