ML19338C130

Informs of Util New long-term Electric Forecast for 1978-1992.Future Electrical Sys Efficiency & Sys Load Factor Revised in Conjunction W/Forecast Update.Related Correspondence

ML19338C130
Person / Time
Site:	Midland
Issue date:	01/31/1978
From:	Bartelman C ISHAM, LINCOLN & BEALE
To:	Mike Farrar, Johnson W, Salzman R NRC ATOMIC SAFETY & LICENSING APPEAL PANEL (ASLAP)
References
NUDOCS 8008050579
Download: ML19338C130 (3)

Text

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mauLP. MAN 2um mMeum a STEntOE.m OF CosNssk CMmISTINE Men.MEMMEYER ROSEnf M. wMEELER DO*6ALD S. MatumEn acp*ALD G. ZAHA4itN mosENT W. ELEINMAN January 31, 1978 Mr. Michael C. Farrar, Chairman Mr. Richard S. Salzman Atomic Gafety and Licensing Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board Appeal Board Nuclear Regulatory Commission

• Nuclear Regulatory Commi.ssion Washington, D.C. 20555 Washington, D.C. 20555

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Dr. W. Reed Johnson c.> q, Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board // # 'b Nuclear Regulatory Commission N h# ,,

Washington, D.C. 20555 g$N y ;g Re: Consumers Power Company - Midland .,ek

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Docket Nos.Q O-329 and 50-330 b 94 8 Gentlemen: 4 $

N-In late January 1978 Consumers Power Company adopted.a new long-term electric forecast for the years 1978 through 1992. The forecast interval has oeen lengthened from 10 to 15 years. The newly adopted forecast predicts average annual increases in the Company's electric power demand of 4.4% per year for the years 1978-1982, 2.8% per year from 1983-1987, and 2.1% per year from 1988-1992. The long-term forecast has been divided into three separate five-year trends to reflect differences in input data during these periods.

These figures supersede the average 10-year, long-term growth rate set forth in the prepared testimony of Gordon L. Heins, submitted before the Licensing Board on January 20, 1977 (5.2%-for the period 1978-1986). The new long-term figures will be used by the Company for long-term planning purposes, and as such also supersede the recent 8008050 % p

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+ ?Mr..Fcrrar '3 Mr. : Salzman 7-

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-D Dr~.- Johnson January 31,=1978 t

-Page?Two; ,

t "short-term" sales forecast for 1978-1979- as set out-in my letter:to the: Licensing Board'of September 16, 1977 (5. 2%

and.3.2%~for 1978 and 1979 respectively;.

l The Company's future electrical 1 system efficiency and system ~ load factor were also-revised in conjunction with: -i the new forecast update. These quantities.are utilized.to

. convert sales projections to estimates of~ peak.. demand. The i efficiency factor 11s now'91% compared to the 91.5% figure j presented in the suspension proceeding, and the revised load ~

factor is 68% instead'of the prior 67%. The-Company's demand-for electricity is now predicted to be 5350 MW in 1 '1981,.and 5580 MW in 1982. Previous estimates were 5560 MW

- for 1981 and 5841 MW for 1982. An analysis of the results l

of these changes on generation additions is in process.

A l 4

document summarizing the new forecast is available for .)

inspection in.our offices. '

, e The cost and schedule' forecasts for the Midland  ;

Project are also ongoing. -Bechtel's~ Forecast No. 3 has been l 1

reviewed by the Company with no resulting change in either '

projected scheduled-operation date or capital cost. Forecast 1 No;'4 has recently been received; in that forecast, Bechtel projects the Bechtel portion of plant capital ~ costs to 4-decrease by.S4 million and the target fuel load dates 1to

remain at November 1980 and November 1981 for Units 2-and 1 .i respectively. The Company is currently reviewing Forecast i i

No. . 4. Copies of both the Company's Forecast No. 3 review i

report and Bechtel's' Forecast'No. 4~for Midland are available l for inspection in our offices. '

' Sincerely, l

l A.B sa w 1

' C.A. Bartelman  !

One of the Attorneys for  !

-Consumers Power' Company '

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cc:- Service List attached.

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Sarvica Liet ; y ~

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Frederic J.-Coufal, Esq.

Chairman Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Dr. J. Venn Leeds, Jr., Esq.

10807 Atwell -

Houston, Texas 77096 l Dr. Emmeth A. Luebke Atomic Safety and Licensing l Board Panel  !

U.S.-Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 L. F. Nute, Esq.

The Dow Chemical ~ Company g p=, f Michigan: Division Legal Department St P.O. Box 271 Midland, Michigan 48640 ff q$$$  %

Richard Hoefling, Esq. ST -

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Counsel for NRC Staff U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission

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['~Q Washington, D.C. 20555 CTS "h, ((I 8

% , p-Mr. C. R. Stephens %s Chief, Docketing & Service Section e Office of the Secretary of the.

Commission U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Atomic Safety and Licensing-Appeal Board __

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555 Myron M. C;arry, Esq.

One IBM Plaza Suite 4501 Chicago, Illinois 60611

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