ML19331D043
| ML19331D043 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 08/01/1980 |
| From: | Muller D Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Young F NRC OFFICE OF STATE PROGRAMS (OSP) |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19331D040 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8008270166 | |
| Download: ML19331D043 (3) | |
Text
.
p th o
UNITED STATES y
g
( ))3 g
NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION
- i\\
<f WASHING TON, D. C. 20555 j
oNv/
AUG 1 1980 MEMORANDUM FOR:
Frank Young, Acting Assistant Director Program Development Office of State Programs FROM:
Daniel R. Muller, Assistant Director Environmental Technology
SUBJECT:
REVIEW OF FLORIDA TEN YEAR SITE PLANS - RE NEED FOR POWER The Utility Finance Branch has undertaken a cursory examination of the need for power discussion in the Ten Year Site Plans submitted by the Florida Electric Utilities. Specific attention was directed at the long range electrical energy forecasts prepared by the ten Florida electric
- utilities in recognition that the energy forecast is typically the most critical and most controversial element in the need for power detemination.
Their forecast of total sales to ultimate customers (GWH) result in an aggregate growth rate for Florida between 1976 and 1589 of 4.4% per annum. Comparable results by major consuming sector are: Residential 4.3%, Comercial 4.8%, and Industrial 4.3%.
The NRC requirement to perform a t!eed for Facility assessment has resulted in a major electricity demand forecasting effort at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The work effort is focused on state level forecasts of electricity demand which offers.high transfer potential to state Public Utility Comissions and state Energy Offices.
Major aspects of the research include the development of a state Level Electricity demand forecasting model (SLED), an econometric model for disaggregating state forecasts to the service area level, forecasts of l
peak load demand and load duration curves, and the quantification of non-price induced conservation effects.
l At the center of this research effort is a regional econometric forecasting model which forecasts state level electricity demand and electricity price through the year 2000. The model uses a system of si=ultaneous l
l l
g[
800827C-j
. equations and contains submodels for the residential, comercial, and industrial sectors. Structural parameters were estimated using state level data for 1955 through 1976.
Explanatory variables incorporated in the model include population, number of customers by sector, real per capita income, the price of electricity and alternative energy sources, number of gas customers, and value added in the manufacturing sector.
Assumptions on the future growth of fuel prices, which is a major determinant in the price of electricity, were varied to capture the uncertainty inherent in forecasting demand for electricity.
The results from this forecasting effort suggest that the Florida utilities in the aggregate are presenting a fair to conservative appraisal of the future growth potential for electrical energy sales in the state of Florida. The SLED model, under base case conditions, estimates an annual growth rate of 6.3% in electricity sales between 1976 and 1990.
For the majcr consuming sectors, comparable growth rates are 6.5% for the residential sector, 7.6% for the comercial sector, and 3.4". for the industrial sector.
It should be noted, that the Florida results reported here have not been adjusted to account for non-priced induced conservation effects.
We would recomend that if the State of Florida's Department of Comunity Affairs is interested in pursuing in greater detail the forecasting capabilities of the SLED model, they should contact:
Dr. Wen Chern Energy Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory Post Office Box X Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830 m
A Daniel R. Muller, Assistant Director Environmental Technology Division of Engineering Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
o
... p.
v FRCM:
ACTICN CONTRCL DATFS CONTRO L NO COM LOEAOuNE s/aw 09312 j
cmy.uw.in.
- h. RMSt df Cama.Aity Affair 5 ACKNOWLEDC MENTI DATE OF COCLVENT iuu sf Ticrik iNTERiu REPi.Y 6/14/t,0 l
TO:
pFEPARE FCR SIGNATURE 1
O F '-
N#'"'*
MdJh4 5. A& M O CHAiRuAN f
f FILE LOCATION O EXECUTIVE ClRECTOR I
OTHER:
WAM D ESCRIPTIC N C LETTER CMEMO O R E*O p 7 C OTHER SPECI AL l* 3TRUCTIONS CR REMARKS Req review of Latroitectice to tne 13h revie s of the Tendow Sita Flus (TTSP) 4.e4 16: USC TY;P I
1 0
CLASSIFIED CATA OOCLMENT/Copv NO.
I CLAS5 s Fic A TIC Nl
[
m_ * *eER OF pa 0 E3 CATEJ ORY PCST A L R EGIST A V NO.
C M6 C RO C FRO A UiGNED TO:
DATE INFORVATICN RCUTING LEGAL REVIEW C FINAL C COPY Dwic 7/))fM ASSIGNEO TO:
l OATE NO LEG AL C AdOiiCNS NCTIFY:
C EOO AOMIN & COR RES BR EXT.
CCMMENTS NOTIFY:
EXT.
JCAE NOT..-lCATICN RECCVMENDED:
0 YES C NO k.
NRC FORM 232 EXECUTIVE DtRECTOR FCFCPERAT'ONS DO NOT REMOVE THiS COPY PRINCIPAL CORRESPONDENCE CONTROL l
l l
l I