ML19331A760
| ML19331A760 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Midland |
| Issue date: | 04/21/1972 |
| From: | Kaiser E CONSUMERS ENERGY CO. (FORMERLY CONSUMERS POWER CO.) |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19331A755 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8007210765 | |
| Download: ML19331A760 (5) | |
Text
.
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION In the Matter of
)
Consu:ners Power Company Docket No. 50-329
)
Docket No. 50-330 (Midland Plant Units 1 and 2)
)
Response to Board's March 27, 1972 Order Regarding Applicant's Reserve Criteria and the Alternative of Purchasing Power Frem Canada 1.
Reserve Criteria Electric utility systems seek to maintain reserve capacity sufficient to protect against forced outages of generating units and to provide sufficient capacity so that generating units can be removed fra service for scheduled maintenance. Reasonable assurance that forced out-ages vill not result in loss of load is not equivalent to absolute assur-ance but is based on probability analysis. The present minimum criteria for the Michigan Pool is to maintain a level of reserves such that the probability of loss of load is once in twenty years. It is the judgnent of Applicant and the Michigan Pool that loss of load once in twenty years is sufficiently ccuservative criterion to provide reasonable assurance that reliable electric service vill be available.
The probability analysis of loss of capacity is made using the size and historical forced outage rate of each individual existing unit and the size and projected forced outage rate of each individual future unit as input data. Output from the analysis is in the form of probabil-ity of loss of megavatts of capacity by varying time intervals. From the j
probability analysis the megavatts necessary to provide a reserve corres-ponding to loss of load once in twenty years is developed for the Michigan Pool without giving credit for interconnection support. Interconnection support is then calculated by transmission load flow and stability studies under various outage conditions along with an analysis of neighboring sys-tems' projected reserve levels and ability to supply suppcrt with a high degree of probability for emergencies on the Michigan Pool system.
The megawatts available frca interconnection support are then subtracted from the probability analysis reserve calculation to deteWne the megawatts of reserve that must be installed internally in the Michigan Pool. At the present time, the number of megavatts that must be installed internally on the Michigan Pool system by 1978 to meet the criterion of loss of load once in twenty years is approximately 18% of the 1978 pro-jected peak load. This value is reanalyzed anytime there is an addition j
or retirement of capacity, a change in forced outage rates or a change in interconnection support.
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2 The attached curve is an illustration of the effect of varying reserve percentages on the probability of loss of load in 1978. The curve plots percent revenues against reliability indices in years. On this curve an 18% reserve equates to loss of load once in twenty years. A 15% reserve, however, results in loss of load once in four years and thus a deterioration in reliability of 80%. A reserve level of 10% equates to loss of load once in seven months. The rapid deterioration in reliability resulting frca de-creases in percentage reserves clearly illustrates the necessity of main-taining an 18% reserve level.
The 18% reserve level is based strictly on probabilistic assess-ment of the system assumed to be in service in 1978 with no slippage of planned generation additions in that period. Additionally, should the yearly load shape in 1978 de such that insufficient room for maintenance exists, ad-ditional reserve vould be required to pemit scheduled maintenance.
2.
Fim Purchase of Electricity From Canada The Interconnection Agreement between Applicant, The Detroit Edisen Company, and the Hydro-Electric Power Commission of Ontario provides for (a) rendering mutual assistance during emergencies (b) improving reliability of bulk power supply through daily coordinated operations and (c) of providing daily operating economics.
Ontario plans capacity additions to meet its eva projected load growth and does not install surplus capacity for possib future firm power sales to other systems with which it is interconnected. The Agreement pro-vides for no fim power sales. All transactions are recallable by the sup-plier in the event of an emergency on his own system. Supplemental Power can be reserved, if available, on a week-by-veek basis in erder to provide assistance during temporary periods of reserve deficiency.
Ontario Hydro has informed the Michigan Pool that the policy of the National Energy Board la to not provide and cczmnit Canadian resources for any fim power sales to systems in Michigan. The Agreement basically therefore covers emergency support for temporary deficienc$es. The required capacity frcm the Midland Project cannot be alternatively purchased frca Ontario Hydro due to (a) Ontario having no such surplus and (b) Ontario's policy restricting such a sale even if surplus capacity were available.
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/-21 11
/s dnues a
UNITED STATES OF A! ERICA ATCMIC ENERGY COPESSION In the Matter of
)
)
Consur.ers Power Company
)
Docket No. 50-329
)
Docket No. 50-330 (Midland Plant Units 1 and 2)
)
CCUh"IY OF JACKSON )
Affidavit of Eugene H. Kaiser Eugene H. Kaiser, being duly sworn, deposes and says that he is Applicant's Principal Engineer, Power Resources Planning; that the Response to Beard's March 27, 1972 Order Regarding Applicant's Reserve Criteria and the Alternative of Purchasing Power From Canada was pre-pared under his supervision and that the matters contained therein are true and correct to his personal knowledge or upon his informaticn and belief.
/s/EugeneH. Kaiser Eugene H. Kaiser Subscribed and sworn to before me this 21st day of April,1972.
/s/GraceR. Warner (S E A L)
Grace R. Warner Notary Public, Jackson County, Michigan My Conmission Expires December 8, 1975
o e
U:CD SIATES OF AERICA ATOMIC I'IERGY CCMMISSION In the Matter of
)
Censumers P0ver Cc=pany
)
Applicatica for Reacter
)
Decket No. 50-329 Construction Per=it and
)
Docket Iso. 50-330 Operating License
)
CER2IFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that copies of Applicant's Response to Board's March 27, 1972 Crder Regarding Applicant's Reserve Criteria and the Alter-native of Prchasing Pcver Fran Camh have teen served en the fonoving by deposit in the United States mail, first class, this 2Lth day of April,1972.
Arthur W. Murphy, Esq., Chair =an David E. Kartalia, Esq.
Atc=ic Safety and Licensing 30ard U. S. Atc=ic Energy Cc=:issic:
Columbia University School of La*
Washingten, DC 20545 3cx 36, k35 West n6th Street New York, New York 10027 Milton R. Wessel, Esq.
Kaye, Scholer, Pier =an, Hays Dr. Clark Goodman and Handler Professor of Physics L25 Park Avenue University of Housten New York, New York 10022 3801 Cunen Sculevard Housten, Texas 7700h Janes N. O' Conner, Esq.
The Dov Chemical Cc=pany Dr. David B. Hall 203o Dev Center Los Ala=cs Scientific Laboratory Midland, Michigan h6610 PC Ecx leo 3 Los Alases, New Mexico 875kk y.yren M. Cherry, Esq. (2)
Suite 10cs, 109 N Dearbern Street William J. G h w r, Esq.
Chicago, Illinois 60602 Suite k, Merrin Building Saginav, Michigan LS602
- 7,.ing tige, 33q, Reiny, Like and Schneider Anthcny Z. Roissan, Esq.
200 West Main Eerlin, Roissan, and Kessler Babylen, New York H702 1910 N Street, NW
~4ashington, DC 20036 Atanic Safety and Licensing Scard Panel US Atcmic Energy C c=ission Mr. Stanley T. Robinsen (20)
Washingten, DC 20545 Chief, Public Proceedings 3 ranch Office of the Secretary of the Hon. '411 Ham H. Ward Cn-* ssi -a Assistant Attorney General US Atc=ic Energy Cccc:ission State of Kansas Washington, DC 20545 Topeka, Kansas 66612 James A. Kendall, Esq.
135 N Saginav Road Midland, Michigan 18610
/s/JohnK.Restrick Jchn K. Restrick Attorney-Censu=ers Pc'-tr Cc=pa=y