ML19323A082

Forwards Documentation of Util Over Capacity.Current Reserves Are Greater That 50% & Predictions for 1980 Show Reserves of 70%.No Urgency to Resume Const

ML19323A082
Person / Time
Site:	Marble Hill
Issue date:	03/06/1980
From:	Hauck F AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
To:	Gilinski V NRC COMMISSION (OCM)
References
NUDOCS 8004170193
Download: ML19323A082 (1)

Text

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' FRED HA UCK Environmental Consultants, P. O. Box 391, or '

Route 3,~ Tower Heights,  !

Shelbyville, Ky. 40065 i March 6, 1980 f Mr. Victor Gilinsky, Commissioner }

Nuclear Regulatory Commission 1717 "H" St., NW

Washington, DC 20555

Subject:

" Urgency" in Allowing  !

Public Service of Indiana to Resume Construction

Dear Mr. Gilinsky:

The enclosed copy of a communication to the Congressional Research Service may help you recognize PSI's present t tremendous over-capacity. Currently, their reserves are i greater than 50L The latest peak we have h record of j is that of past January 8th. If that has. not been exceeded, l 1980 reserves can be pegged at 70%1 There is no conceivable urgency in resuming construction at Marble Hill.

We are looking forward to having the materials requested  ;

through your secretary, Sylvia. ,

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Sincerely,

. l/(EfVfN'l Fred Hauck j

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- - TO: CongrOcaicnal Re00 arch S:rvica

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Library of CongrOca 10 Firct St., SE Washington, DC.20540- -

FRED HAUCK

@ I @r  : Mr. Russell Prosozich Environmental Consultants,

% Economics Division P. O. Box 391, 4 Of coCKETED Route 3, Tower Heights, USNRC 7.

.6'. - Shelbyville, Ky. 40065 MAR 101980 >

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,hstl4 &N Doc I3 February 11, 1980 1, 7

Subject:

The Over-Capacity Situation at g Public Service of Indiana g

Dear Sir:

Congressman Lee Hamilton has advised us that he has asked you, PSI and DOE for analyses of Public Service Indiana's current and probable future reserve capacity. Since your group is the only unbiased, non-vested interest, we furnish'the'following salient points for your consideration:

1. Based on last year's 3718 Mw winter peak and FERC capacity. data, PSI currently has a 53% reserve ratio. If their 1980 peak is less than 3718 Mw-(and it seems likely'to be) .the 1980 reserve ratio could be nearly 70%.

2. PSI is currently building another (the 5th.) 650 Mw unit at Gibson Station. This will give them a total of about 6400 Mw of capacity.

3. The only old units still on line are 3 small units at Edwards-ville totaling 144 Mw. These are due for 40-year retirement in 1984 and 1991. There are also 2-100 Mw units at Noblesville due for retirement in 1990. Of course, all 5 of these old units are likely to be held in standby condition. Without these plants PSI will have 6100 Mw; with them on standby, 6444 Mw.

,4 . During the NRC pre-construction hearings, PSI stressed their 8.6%

demand growth and 8.2% energy sales growth, based on demand growth during the '70's. This high rate was sustained initially by lower and lower real-dollar price of electricity. This growth was later reinforced by cheap electric heat and a burgeoning air-condition-ing load. The natural gas shortages in 1976 and 1977 added impet-us. All this is now vastly changed! Indiana Gas wants customers!

5. Even during these high growth years, regression analysis gives equal correlation coefficients for both straight-line and expon-ential analyses. Since the reversal of the downward real-dollar ,

price trend to a rapidly rising price (beginning in 1976) elec-tricity-use patterns are changing ever more rapidly. Last year, for the first time, PSI's domestic users actually reduced use.

This year appears to be the first time that PSI will not establish a new demand peak!

(cont.)

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6. Our last price research indicated that real-dollar prices are still in a rapid upward trend (at least 5.2% annually). Ration- ,

al treatment of this price situation (TVA is a good example) has ,

caused ' sharp reductions in both demand and consumption estimates. l But, l

7. Even PSI has slowly reduced their 8.6% and 8.2% estimates.

their current estimates of 6% annually for winter peaks and 4% l for summer, are still at least double rational rates. We i contend that the growing availability of domestic natural gas l and its much lower cost (less than half that of electricity) will ,

cause the PSI system to revert to summer peaking, as it was before l 1975. The probable 1986 date for' Alaskan-Canadian gas to arrive ,

at Dwight, Ill (50 miles from Indiana's border) will supply the l energy equivalent of more than 20,000 Mw of electrical capacity, roughly 10-times the capacity of the two Marble Hill units.

8. Indiana and surrounding states grew in population at much less than the national average. For verification see pages 11 and 15 of our draft report attached.. Indiana grew at only 39% of nation-al from 1970-1977. The U.S. Commerce Department (BEA) estimates  ;

Indiana at only 36% of national for 1977-2000. The Sun Belt, l including the far Western States, are the only population areas )

growing rapidly. i

9. A U.S. Commerce Dept. report, " Preliminary Forecast of Likely U.S. l Energy Consumption / Production Balances for 1985 and 2000 by States" I gives their picture of Indiana's electricity consumption growth i as 3.4% annually. And who ever heard of a pessimistic government j report! Even assuming the correctness of this forecast of con- I sumption growth, PSI's needed capacity growth would likely be in j the 2% range. Further, Congress' PURPA instructions, with time-of-day pricing and new rate schedules are certain to cause sharp trimming of daily and seasonal peaks.

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10. Many people consider the utilities "the experts" in the forecast-  !

ing of their needs. To help you doubt "the experts" and to remind l you of some of their bias toward high forecasts, we attach Dr. j Duane Chapman's 5-page preliminary report to the Ohio' River Basin i Energy Study (ORBES) group. Dr. Chapman's further analysis equates j the employee stock option " subsidy" for a $100,000/yr. executive l to approximately $111,0001 That might even tempt me to try to l build an unneeded $2-$4 billion nuclear plant!

I hope that this information, plus the enclosures will help you l furnish Congressman Hamilton with the proper advice. ]

TVA's estimate indicates a 30% reduction' )

in unit use upon a doubling of real- Sincerely, j dollar cost.  !

Copies: Fred Hauck l l

Congressman Hamilton and Media I i

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..g FRED HAUCK

. Box 391' Shelbyville, KY 40065 P 3 With the foregoing as background, we list the following compar-ative capacities and peak forecasts:

LOAD F 0 R.E C.A.S T S PSI's Hauck Forecasts Forecast '

96%/Yr Straight-Line Most Probable PSI's Regression $2% Considering Winter YEAR SCHEDULED Peaks No Price or Per Rising Costs,

1. # **# "*~ ~ "Y '

CAPACITY Constraints & New Gas Sup, 1980 5700 Mw 3730 Mw 3450 Mw 3450 Mw 3450 Mw

=65% Reserves =65% Reserves 1985 6400 5037 4250 3800 3775

=68% Reserves =70% Reserves 1994 6400 6655 5000 4200 4100 or =52% Reserves =56% Reserves nel or or ffdo --- = / 0 77o "

Nucle ar -------------------------- -/d P7 '

i 1995 6400  ? 5800 4650 '4400 1

or Inci =38% Reserves =45% Reserves {

fD# Nucl e ar ----------------------------v3% r . . ____ = 73 g or ,, ,

i 2000 6400  ? 6600 5150 4600 i or =24% Reserves =39% Reserves Incl or or N00 Kuclear ~ S[f --- <PTR e

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l Established about 1974 (well before the NRC hearings at Madison) o*

Theirmostrecentwintersystemloadforecast(includestheREMC'sinWabg Valley Association. No sales to outside systems included. Our 2-year ass.

iation with the ORBES Advisory Committee has convinced us that all electri l

utility systems nation-wide have severe over-capacity problems. Currentlyg

" Electrical World" says that the national reserve ratio is 43%. "Standarda is-20%. 4We -confirm the 43% figure -and .say-+that-the-. national.., reserve ratio <

may be 50% by 19851 j l

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l Woo g , PSI's WINTER PEAKS (Including REMC's)

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l PSI's Estimate of Winter. Peaks M~ _

i Past PSI Winter Peaks-Unconstrained Trend -

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i Our Estimate of Winter Peaks - 2% Annual Growth _

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'i Our Estimate of Winter Peaks Constrained by Pri I i ! :

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Fred Hauck, Save the Valley, (502)633-4612 P. O. Box 391  :

Shelbyville, Kentucky 40065 i

1. There is a new problem at Marble Hill: storage of critical-equipment is very poor.

2. Need to know the confidence level for the location of concrete voids; percentage figure--depending on method that l was used.  ;

3. NRC specifications for_ patching ~' ~ -

voids. Only proper way to do ft is with apoxy.

4. Foundation of the containment building; buildings are on limestone; specifications - - ~ ~

for foundation preparation.

5. Public Service Indiana continues to talk about a total price of $1.8 billion for the Marble Hill installation; ,

The currently mentioned price by people who know what's going on for that size facility (2260 megawatts) think F price should be about $4 billion. Should come out with j

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an honest figure.

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6. Total system output of Public Service Indiana last year .

was only 36-1/2 percent of rated capacity. Their peak was lower than it was last year. Those two things tell me i that there is ahmo,lutely no,urg,ency_on_ going ahead with l the construction of'Mirble Hill.

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7. Public Service Indiana has filed with NRC an 87-page request to be permitted to resume construction; is there any way we could receive a cop rof this request?

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COAmstSSIONsR I 1

Fred Hauck, Save the Valley,. called this morning to check on the status of material  !

to be sent to him and also to inform us l that there will be a sort of pre-permission .

l to resume construction hearing for Public j Service Indiana on March 18. Mr. Hauck I would like to know if he could receive l miterials by then (in time for the meeting). .

j Most importantly, he would like to have -

the: (1) patching regulations;- (2) I foundation preparation specifications; -

l and (3) 87-page report / plan that PSI - I shhmitted.

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SE - 3/11/80 j P.S.: He wants a call back between 12:00 t and 2:00 at (502) 633-46p2 to let.him know whether or not he will be able to receive info he requested.

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..... j OFFICE OF THE CommisslONER r

VG: I called Mr. Hauck to see if  ;

i he had received our correspondence.

1 He said he never did receive our letter but then he hasn't been by the Save The Valley office  ;

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in a while and, by the way, could j

- I please ask Commissioner Gilinsky j l

for the following: (attached list). j i

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