ML19322E898

Forwards Estimates of Evacuation Times for Area Surrounding Plant,Per NRC 791129 Ltr Request

ML19322E898
Person / Time
Site:	Point Beach
Issue date:	03/26/1980
From:	Fay C WISCONSIN ELECTRIC POWER CO.
To:	Harold Denton, Grimes B NRC - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TASK FORCE, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUDOCS 8004020410
Download: ML19322E898 (9)

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Wisconsin Electnc eam coumr 231 W MICHIGAN. P 0. BOX 2046. MitWAUKEE, WI 53201 March 26, 1980 Mr. Ilarold R. Denton, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation U. S. NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION Washington, D. C. 20555 Attention: Mr. Brian K. Grimes, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group Gentlemen:

DOCKET NOS. 50-266 AND 50-301 ESTIMATES OF EVACUATION TIMES POINT BEACH NUCLEAR PLANT, UNITS 1 AND 2 As requested in your letter dated November 29, 1979, we are providing as an attachment to this letter the estimated evacuation times for the area surrounding the Point Beach Nuclear Plant, Units 1 and 2. These estimates were prepared utilizing the guidance provided in the enclosure to your letter. These estimates have been discussed with those local officials in the area of the Plant who are responsible for emergency planning.

Copies of these estimates are being provided for information to the Wisconsin Division of Emergency Government and the Director of Emergency Government for Manitowoc County.

Very truly yours, C. W. Fay, Director Nuclear Power Department Attachment Copies to: Mr. Michael P. Early, Administrator Wisconsin Division of Emergency Government gf(q7 D\ l1 Mrs. Grace T. Brandl, Director Manitowoc Office of Emergency Government 8 0 0 4 0 2 09 p3

Evacuation Time Estimates for the Area Surrounding the Point Beach Nuclear. Plant A. Determination oi Evacuation Sectors For evacuation time estimation purposes, the area in the vicinity of the Point Beach Nuclear Plant was divided into the sectors and areas shoan in Figure 1.

The low population zone (LPZ) area approximates one 180* sector with a two mile radius as specified in the reporting format. A second 180* sector consists of the remainder of the two mile radius area over Lake Michigan.

The land area between the LPZ boundary and the 5 mile and 10 mile radius lines was divided into six 45* sectors in a manner that would avoid the bisection of the City of Two Rivers and the Village of Mishicot. For evacuation time estimation purposes, it was assumed that any two adjacent 45* sector areas could require evacuation simultaneously depending on the variability of wind direction. Potential combinations of 45* sectors and associated evacuation time estimates are listed in Table A. Table A includes two sets of evacuation time estimates: one set is an estimate for normal weather conditions; the other an estimate for adverse weather conditions.

B. Normal Weather Assumptions In order to estimate evacuation times for normal weather conditions, the following assumptions were made:

1. The accident occurs during normal weather conditions, e.g.,

,a clear or cloudy day with low or moderate winds, such that traffic flow would be unimpeded by weather conditions.

2. All roads a.nd streets in the area are serviceable.

3. Residents of the area are involved in their normal everyday activities.

C. Adverse Weather Assumptions In order to estimate evacuation times for adverse weather conditions, i the following assumptions were made., based on the normal prepared-ness for snow conditions in Wisconsin:

1. The accident occurs immediately following a heavy snowstorm.

An accident during a snowstorm would not require additional time for evacuation; at the same time, it is recognized that radiological impact could be reduced due to radiciodine and particulate washout by snowfall or rainfall.

2. Plowing or salting of interstate and state highways and major county roads is in progress to the extent of minimum serviceability.

3. Lesser travelled county roads and local town roads and city streets have not been plowed.

4. A 1 rural roads are accessible to police and emergency subicles and private vehicles equipped with snow tires and/or chains.

5. The residents of the area normally have their own snow removal equipment and have the capability to exit their own property during emergency situations in a reasonable time.

D. Evacuation Procedure Assumptions The following evacuation procedure assumptions were made in calculating the estimated times:

1. All steps required in the Point Beach Nuclear Plant Emergeacy Plan have been implemented, including the notification of appropriate local and emergency government authorities.

2. The Manitowoc County Sheriff's office an1 Division of Emergency Government have been mobilized and have established command posts.

3. Emergency. personnel and vehicles are avai.able and utilized as shown on Table A. The availability of up to 150 emergency and police vehicles and personnel was assumed for an accident requiring evacuation of the LPZ and a 90' sector area encom-passing both the City of Two Rivers and the Village of Mishicot.

In accordance with the Manitowoc County Evacuation Plan, notifying personnel would be drawn from the Sheriff's Department, the Wisconsin State Patrol, Two Rivers Police Department, State of Wisconsin Emergency Government, Manitowoc County Civil Defense and local firefighting agencies.

4. Establishment of traffic control measures to maintain the flow of traffic in the area and facilitate evacuation is assumed. These measures include the routing of rural traffic away from tIse City of Two Rivers and Village of Mishicot to v.ade.ce the potential for conjestion problems. In the City of Twc Rivers, maintenance of flow over the four bridges available for crossing the East and West Twin Rivers is also assumed.

5. The primary means of notifying residents would be by police and emergency vehicles driving in the area with " yelp" sirens on, mobile public address systems, and door-to-door personal contact.

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6. Other means of notification to be used include broadcast media, telephones, and citizen band radio. Warnings to higher and lower echelons of government include telephone, radio, and wire sytems of communication.

7. Evacuation takes place as the notitication process progresses.

A portion of the population will respond to broadcast media notifications and implement evacuation without personal contact notification.

8. Most residents respond to instructions to tie a towel, handkerchief, or other form of signal to their door, gate or mailbox to indicate they have left the premiscs, thereby facilitating confirmation that evacuation has been completed.

9. School superintendents are alerted as part of the' emergency mobilization process, and the required number of school buses are in the process of driving to or from schools or are on standby.

10. Residents evacuate the area principally by private automobile, with an average of about one vehicle per residence. average driving speeds are assumed to be 25 miles per hour during normal conditions and 15 miles per hour during adverse weather.

E. Evacuation Time Estimates for the Low Population Zone (LPZ)

1. Notification of Residents There are approximately 66 residences and 8 commercial or public buildings within the offsite precautionary plan LPZ boundary. The estimated resident population of this area is 265 persons. Assuming 15 emergency or police vehicles available and notification time of about 5 minutes per residence, or commercial or public building, approximately 25 minutes would be required to complete the notification process under normal conditions. During adverse weather conditions, approxi-mately 60 minutes would be required to complete the notification process (see Table A) .

2. Implementation of Evacuation Evacuation would begin as notification progresses. Evacuation would take place principally by private automobile. With an average of one vehicle per residence and three vehicles per business or other uses, appronimately 90 vchicles *.eculd be involved; hence no traffic problems are anticipated. It is estimated that each residence would be evacuated anpronicately 30 minutes af ter notification during normal conditions and within 60 minutes under adverse weather conditions. Evacuation of the offsite precautionary plan area could be completed approximately 50 minutes af ter commencement of notification

during normal conditions. During adverse weather conditions this evacuation is estimated to require approximately 110 minutes.

3. Confirmation of Evacuation As part of the notification process, residents would be instructed to tie a towel, handke*; chief, or other form of signal to their door, gate or mailbox to indicate that they have left the premises. Assuming that 15 vehicles are available and.that confirmation takes about 3 minutes per residence, approximately 15 minutes would be required to complete the confirmation process within the LPZ boundary under normal conditions and 30 minutes during adverse weather conditions.

4. Estimated Total Evacuation Time for LPZ The estimated total time to evacuate the LPZ is 55 minutes during normal conditions and 120 minutes or 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> during adverse weather conditions. These estimates allow for the overlap of the three types of activities (notification, implementation, and. confirmation) involved.

F. 90* Sector Areas For estimating the evacuation times for the 90* sector areas it is assumed that two adjacent 45* sector areas (see Figure 1) would require evacuation simultaneously. The various potential combinations of the six 45* sector areas are listed in Table A.

Separate evacuation time estimates are shown for the LPZ to 5 mile radius and the 5 to 10 mile radius areas. Evacuation time estimates for the City of Two Rivers and the Village of Mishicot are also presented in parenthetical format for the 90* sectors of the 5 to 10 mile radius area within which they are located. Also shown in Table A are evacuation time estimates for a special area, the Point Beach State Forest, located about 3 miles south-southeast of the Point Beach Nuclear Plant. ,

i Evacuation time estimates for the 90* sectors from the LPZ to 5 miles range from 1.0 hour0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> to 1.25 hours2.893519e-4 days <br />0.00694 hours <br />4.133598e-5 weeks <br />9.5125e-6 months <br /> during normal weather conditions and 2.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> to 2.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> during adverse weather conditions. For the 90* sectors from 5 to 10 miles, the estimates range from 1 ' hours to 4.0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> during normal conditions and ,

3.3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> to .0 hours0 days <br />0 hours <br />0 weeks <br />0 months <br /> during adverse weather conditions.

G. Sgraial Facilities It is estimated that the Point Beach State Forest could be evacuated in 2.5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> during a peak use period when up to 1,200 persons could be using the forest campgrounds, picnic, beach, hiking trails, and

other facilities. In adverse weather only approximately 100 persons are estimated to use the Point Beach State Fcrest, and they could be evacuated in one hour.

I The Two Rivers Community Hospital has indicated a preference for sheltering-in-place. Hence no special ovacuation provisions are required for this facility.

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Ivscusties Times Estiastes for the Area Near the Point Beach Nuclear Plant

. Normal Weather Conditions Estimate Adverse Veather Conditions Estimate Estimated Est. Est. Pol. & Est. Vehicles Estimated Evacuation Tiae Estamated Evacuatson Time Sect:r Resident No. of No. of Total Traffic Notif. Impt. Conf. Est. Total Notif. Iept. Conf.

er Area Population Residences Vehicles Avail Ctrl. Natif. Time Tire Time Evac. Time Time Time Tice Total Evac. Time

• L.P.Z. 265 75 90 27 12 15 25 min 52 min 15 ala 55 min /l hr 60 min 110 min 30 ala 120 min /2.0 hrs 90* Sector Areas LPZ-5 ri Radius h'l to N 250 62 67 30 15 15 25 mia 50 min 15 min 55 min /1.0 br 50 min 110 min 30 sia 120 min /2.0 bra W to sw 440 HO' 120 30 15 15 40 ala 65 min 25 min 75 min /l.25 hrs 90 min 140 min 50 ala 150 min /2.5 hrs SV to kW 430 108 120 30 15 15 40 mia 65 min 25 min 75 min /1.25 bre 90 min 140 min 50 min 150 min /2.5 bre 5 to LSV 425 107 120 30 15 15 40 min 65 min 25 min 75 min /1.25 bre 90 min 140 min 50 sin 150 min /2.5 bra SSE to SSV 300 75 80 30 15 15 25 min 50 min 15 min 55 min /1.0 hr 60 min 110 min 30 min 120 min /2.0 hrs 908 Sector Areas 5-10

• lite Radius hv to N 1,275 320 350 40 10 30 60 ala 85 min 40 mia ir in/1.7 hre 130 min 180 min 60 mia 200 min /3.3 hrs VtsMN 2,215 565 600 9 40 10 30 100 als 125 min 60 min 1. ain/2.7 bre 200 min 250 min 100 ala 270 min /4.5 hrs SWtokW 3,820 1,280 1,350 55 15 40 140 min 165 min 70 min 210 min /3.5 hre 280 min 330 min 120 min 390 min /6.5 hrs Rural (3,320) (630) (850) (40) (10) (30) (140 min) (165 min) (70 min) (210 min)

(210 min)(330 min)(120 min) (390 min)

Hishicot (1,5C3) (450) (500) (15) ( 5) (10) ( 50 min) ( 80 min) (40 min) ( 90 min) ( 60 min)(150 min)( 60 min) (170 min) m I . *

, Table A coet'd .

4 Normal Weather Conditions Estimate Adverse Weather conditions Estimate Estimated Est. Est. Pol. & Ema. Vehicles Estimated Evacuation Time Estimated Evacuation Time Sect r Resident  %. of No. of Total Traffic Notif. Imp 1. Conf. Est. Total .Notif. Irp1. Conf.

rr Arra Population Residencee Vehicles Avail Ctr1. Notif. Time Time Time Evac. Time Time Tiec Tine Total Evac. Time t

902 Srctor Areas

, 5-10 cite radius (cont'd)

~! S to ESV 18,850 5.210 5,500 95 25 70 160 min 210 min 120 min 240 min /4.0 bre 300 min 450 min 120 min 480 min /8.0 hrs i

Rural (3,850) t w)) (1,000) (40) (10) (30) (160 min) (185 min) (80 min) (240 min) (300 min)(370 min)(120 min) (420 min) .

'; Mishicot (1,50G) (a0) (500) (15) ( 5) (10) ( 40 min) ( 80 min) (40 min) ( 90 min) ( 60 min)(160 min)( 60 min) (170 min)

. .,The Rivers (13,500) (3.f43) (4,000) (40) (10) (30) (100 min) (210 min) (120 min) (240 min) (150 min)(450 min)(120 min) (480 min) 5SE to SSW 15,350 4,265 4,500 70 20 50 120 min 210 min 120 min 240 min /4.0 bra 200 min 450 min 120 min 480 min /8.0 bre Pural (1,650) (405) (500) (30) (10) (20) (120 min) (145 min) (60 min) (190 min) (200 min)(300 min)( 80 min) (330 min)

Tws River (13,500) (3,600) (4,000) (40) (10) (30) (100 min) (210 min) (120 min) (240 min) (150 min)(450 min)(120 min) (480 min)

SpIcial Area Print Easch State isrest Est. Total Est. No. .

Campg r. ..:.Js l'e r son s Campsites vehicles F10 r :es SSE to sw up to 1,200 150 250 ,9 2 7** 90 mim . ein 60 als 150 min /2.5 bre 15 min 50 min 10 min 60 min ***/1 kr O Estix.ated maxis.us St te Forest occupancy

• • State Forest Ranger ..1 staff i

• • • Only about 100 persor.s .ind 30 vehicles maximum assuried to be in the

• State Forest during gdeerse weather conditions.

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