ML19318A872

General Public Utils Sys Cash & Earnings Forecast for Jun 1980-Dec 1981

ML19318A872
Person / Time
Site:	Crane
Issue date:	06/05/1980
From:	Metropolitan Edison Co
To:
Shared Package
ML19318A871	List: ML19318A870 ML19318A872
References
NUDOCS 8006240304
Download: ML19318A872 (18)

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i GPU SYSTEM CASH AND EARNINGS FORECAST June'1980 - December 1961 Presented to the GPU Board of Directors June 5, 1980 1-i 2 --

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o 2.

General Public Utilities System Short-Term Debt Outstanding (S000)

Short-Tere Debt Outstanding 6 5/31/80 Total Name of Bank GPU JCP&L Met-Ed Penelec System R3volving' Credit Agreement

$50 000 S133 000

$ 99 000*

S282 000

$262 000 Total Short-Term Debt

$50 000 $133 000

$ 99 000 Temporary Investments 6 100 $

S 10 950 S 22 084 S 391M

• Includes $13 million of First Mortgage Sonds issued and outstanding l

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GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES SYSTEM June 1980 - December 1981 Forecast MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS I.

Costs and Construction Per April 1980 Forecast..

1980 Sales sales approximately the same as 1979.

1981 sales 4% higher than 1980.

Rate of Inflation 1980 = 10%/ Year in the Economy 1981 = 8.5%/ Year Unit 1 in service 7/1/81.

TMI Units Unit 2 out of service throughout.

Essentially the same as 1980 Original O & M Expense Budget except that S10 million has been included for load management.

Total 1980-1981 construction fore-Construction cast essentially the same as 1980 Original Budget.

No Forked River AFC.

Seward 7 going forward.

Canadian connection begun.

JCP&L 500 KV included.

515 million load management expenditures in 1981. USDOE payment of $33 million is made in December 1980.

TMI-2 Clean-up and See attached schedule.

Insurance Recovery Energy Costs Oyster Creek returns to service in mid-June.

Five week outage in fall 1980.

Refueling in fall 1981.

Oil escalates at 30%/ year in 1980 to $39 per barrel at year end for

1. 2 oil.

Oil escalates at 20%/ year.

in 1981.

No PJM " cost + 10%" pricing.

Continued availability of coal-based purchased power for the System and natural gas 1

for JCP&L.

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4.

GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES SYSTEM Estimate of TMI-2 Recovery Cost and Insurance Proceeds

($ Millions) 1979 1980 1981 II Non-Nuclear Fuel Recovery Costs

$ 95

$ 90

$ 90 Nuclear Fuel Replacement Core 6

3 1

Total Recovery Cost

$101 S 93 S 91 Non-Nuclear Fuel Insurance Proceeds S 20

$ 73 S 55 Nuclear Fuel Insurance Proceeds 50-13 Total Insurance Proceeds S 70 S 86 5 55 Cumulative Recovery Costs S101 S194 5285 Cumulative Insurance Proceeds 70 156 211

$(38)

O(74)

Over or (Under) Collected S(31)

(1) Does not include costs charged to expense which are approximately

$10 million per year during the restoration period.

5.

II.

Financing

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$50 million Penelec bond in Permanent Financings first quarter 1981.

$50 million JCP&L bond in third quarter 1981.

None for Met-Ed.

No GPU common stock.

No change in System limit or Short-Term Debt in operating company sublimits.

Met-Ed exceeds S105 million sublimit in April 1981.

Subsidiary Dividend Penel'sc pays out 100% of 1980 to GPU earni.ngs.

JCP&L and Penelee pay out 100%

of 1981 earnings.

Met-Ed pays no dividend.

Capital-Contributions None in 1980 or 1981.

to Subsidiaries For financial forecasting purposes, GPU Dividend no GPU common stock dividend is assumed so that a dividend policy is not implied.

The dividend policy will be reviewed quarterly by the GPU Board of Directors.

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6.

III.

Ratemaking Base Rates Filed for S173 million of which (1)

Jersey Central 551 million is to amortize Forked River over 10 years without return (2) S22 million is for TMI-l and (3) S100 million is for higher O&M, increased rate base, higher return allowance and the like.

S60 million interim allowed June 1, 1980.

515 million additional allowed January 1, 1981.

S51 million allowed July 1, 1981 to amortize Forked River.

No increase in base rates for TMI-1 return to service but S16 million amortization of deferred energy ends on July 1, 1981.

Will file for S73 million of which (1)

Met-Ed S34 million will be for TMI-1 and (2)

S39 million for non-TMI related cost increases.

Will complain against temporary rates and will ask for interim.

No change in rates from complaint against temporary rates or from interim application.

S25 million allowed January 1, 1981 for non-TMI costs.

S27 million allowed July 1, 1981 for TMI-l return to service.

Will file for $64 million of which (1) penelec S15 million will be for TMI-1, (2)

S49 million will be for non-TMI related cost increases and (3) that there be no

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reduction of' base rates for the expi,ra-tion of amortization on the pre 7/78 energy clause.

Will complain against temporary rates.

No chance in rates from complaint against temporary rates.

S30 million allowed January 1, 1981 for non-TMI costs.-

$12 million allowed July 1, 1981 for TMI-1 return to service.

7.

Energy Cost Recovery September 1980: 573 million allowed.

Jersey Central This is a judgment figure representing something between (a) full tariff implementation of $112 million and (b) recovery of current cost only of $20 million.

March 1981:

S80 million representing

. full tariff implementation.

September 1981:

Reduction of 552 million representing full tariff implementation with TMI-1 savings reflected.

January 1981:

No change in current Met-Ed billing factor which is sufficient to recover current cost in 1981 pending return of TMI-l to service.

I July 1981:

Reduction of $55 million representing savings from TMI-l generation.

January 1982:

Reduction of $26 million representing (a) reduction of $55 million from completion of 18 month TMI deferral recovery and (b) increase of S29 million representing 1982 energy cost estimate.

January 1981:

S21 million increase to Penelec keep ' anergy recovery approximately curre,nt pending TMI-l return to service without over-recovery.

July 1981:

No change with TMI-l return.

January 1982:

No change.

End cf amortization of TMI deferred costs is enough to offset 1982 cost increase.

e-GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES SYSTEM Rate Increases froen Current Tariffe (iifils/KWH)

JCP&L Het-Ed Penelec Increases Cum.

Increases Cum.

Increases Cum.

Base Energy Total Base Energy Total Base Ene3 1 Total 1980 Jto Jul Aug Sep 5.7 5.7 Oct 5.7 e

Nov 5.7 Dec 5.7 1981 Jan 1.2 6.9 3.1 3.1 2.3 2.0 4.3 Feb 6.9 3.1 4.3 Mar 6.2 13.1 3.1 4.3 Apr 13.1 3.1 4.3 May 13.1 3.1 4.3 Jun 13.1 3.1 4.3 Jul 3.9 17.0 3.5 (6.8)

(0.2) 1.1.

5.4 Aug 17.0 (0.2) 5.4 Sep (3.5) 13.5 (0.2) 5.4 Oct 13.5 (0.2) 5.4 Nov 13.5 (0.2) 5.4 Dec 13.5 (0.2) 5.4 i

Average Customer Cost Base Energy Total Base Energy Total Base Energy Total Current Tariff 34.7 35.9 70.6 29.3 34.5 63.8 41.6 19.0 60.6 Increases 5.1 8.4 13.5 6.6 (6.8)

(0.2) 3.4 2.0 5.4 Dec. 81 Tariff 39.8 44.3 84.1 35.9 27.7 63.6 45.0 2M 66.0 t Increase 154 23t 194 231 (2514 01 84 Ils 93 to

't CENERAL PUBLIC t!TIIITIES CORPORATION Projected Net Short-Term Debt May_1980-December 1981

($ Millions) 1980 1981

May, June July M.

Sept.

Dec. G)

!!a_r.

June

_Sey t. - Dec.

e

$133

$125

$130 $125

$114

$106 77 79 17 44 J2rsey(Central M2t-Ed l) 88 101 96 94 96 101 98 125 106 79 Penelec 14 4

CPU Corp.(3) 44 46 43 46 48 50 41 25 3

System Total

$265

$272_ $2H $,265

$2J5,8

$271 216 233 126 123 5

(1) Includes $13 million of First Mort ge Bonds Issued and Outstanding to Banks (2) Includes approximately $33 of DOE Dnferred Payments - JC-$18; ME-$10; PE-$5.

(3) For financial forecasting purposes, no common dividends have been included.

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CPU OPERATING COMPANIES Stcten ant of Cech Requiremento June-December 1980

($ Millions)

F

.J,CP& L He t,-Ed.

Penelec, To t,a l_

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'Re,quirements_for Funds I.

Deferred Energy Energy Cost - PUC 257 117 112 486 Energy Billings to Customers 292 157 121 57 0 Net Deferred Energy (35)

(40)

(9)

(84)

II.

THI-2 Repair & Restoration Expenditures

• 14 28 14 56 j

Insurance Proceeds 10 20 10 40 Net 1NI-2 Expenditures 4

8 4

16 III.

Construction Construction & Refinancings 96 46 73 215 Net Internal Sources *

• 92 32 124 Het Construction 4

46 41 91 f,2 7,)

14 36 23 Net Deficiency (Generation) of Funds 2

Source of Funds i

Bank BorrowinEs (27) 14 14 1

g Permanent Financings O

Temporary Investments 22 22 Total J27,)

14 36 23 7

• Replacemeist of nuclear fuel core included in construction

• • Net of Items I and II O

CPU OPEP.ATING COMPANIES Statement cf Ccsh Rrquiremento Year 1981

($ M11110'e, JCP&L Het-Ed Penelec Total Requirements for Funds

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1.

Deferred Energy Energy Cost - PUC 496 189 201 886 Energy Billings to Customers 549 245 224 1 018 Net Deferred Energy (53)

(56)

(23)

_ 132).

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II.

THI-2 Repair & Restoration Expenditures

• 22 45 23 90 Insurance Proceeds 13 28 14 55 Net THI-2 Expenditures 9

17 9

35 III.

Construction Construction & Refinancings 163 65 122 350 Net Internal Sources **

131 48 74 253 Net Construction 32 17 48 97 Net Deficiency (Generation) of Funds g)

(22) 34 Source of Funds Bank Borrowings (62)

(22)

(14)

(98)

Permanent Financings 50 50 100 Temporary Investments (2)

(2) g H

Totn1 f,l,)

,Q2)

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• Replacement of nuclear fuel core included in construction

• • Net of Items I and II

12.

GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES SYSTEM Earnings Forecast (S Millions)

GPU GPU JCP&L Met-Ed Penelec Corp.

Consol.

1980 Net Income S 28

$ (12)

$ 28 S(18)

S 26 Earnings Per Share S0.42 Return on Common 4.2%

(3.2)%

6.7%

1.7%

Interest Coverage 2.08 0.98 2.20 Preferred Coverage 1.26 0.78 1.34 1981 Net Income S 37 S

6 S 37 S(14)

S 66 51.08 Earnings Per Share Return on Common 5.5%

1.6%

8.8%

4.6 Interest Coverage 2.11 1.80 2.25 Preferred Coverage 1.37 1.02 1.49 l

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GENERAL PUBLIC UTILITIES SYSTEM Ca tta11:ation i

($ HlR ionn)

Jersey Central Met-Ed Penelec Consolidated

~T980 19U-P N0 19IF 30 IIII-

~T930 HW Capitalization Long-Term Debt 893 932 542 540 688 731 2 177 2 257 Preferred Stock 204 202 140 140 169 166 513 500 Common Stock 677 677 366 372 421 421 1 419 1 485 Total DR D TT DTI D S2 Did 1'318 FI'65 3 256 Short-Term Debt 106 44 88 66 14 258 110 Total 1 880 1 855 1 136 1 118 1 292 1 318 4 367 4 360 Capitalization Ratlos - %

Long-Term Debt 50 47 52 50 52 48 51 48 54 53 55 55 53 50 53 52 Preferred Stock 12 11 11 11 13 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 Common Equity 38 36 37 37 35 32 36 33 33 33 32 32 35 32 35 34 Short-Term Debt 6

2 8

6 1

6 3

Total gg gg gg gg gg g g ' g _g gg La e

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GPU SYSTEM

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R S 150 ASSUMES NO COMMON STOCK D UIDEND 100 50 p

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M DEFERRED Et(RGY R.C.A. LIMIT L140

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MET-ED:

FORECASTED SHORT-TERM DEBT & DEFERRED ENERGY BALANCE 200 g

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