ML19308A475

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Discusses Potential Earthquake Damage to TMI-1 Cooling Towers Assuming Highest Intensity VI-VII Recorded to Date. Mod Mercalli Intensity Scale Encl
ML19308A475
Person / Time
Site: Crane 
Issue date: 04/27/1977
From: Reiter L
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To: Silver H
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUDOCS 7910220653
Download: ML19308A475 (5)
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HIMORANDUM FORT Earley Silver, Project Manager, LWR-4, DFM FROMt Leon Reiter, Seimmologist, Geosciences Branch, DSE SUBJECT IARTRQUAKh-INDUCID n&MAc TO COOLING TOINES AT TEREE MILE Y!rLAND O-27 f The question hem been peeed as to what is the shansa.of earthquake-indmeed damage to the cooling towers at. the Three Mile Island site.

While a definitive answer to the towerM ability to withstand shaking can only be estimated from a detailed structural analysis, we may obtain a qualitative estimate using the Modified Marem114 Intensity

'.J; seals. This seale (see at*=*h===e), formulated in 1931, is the c,

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primary measure of earthquake damage amused by historie earthquakee J.a in the U.S..It described Intensity VII as reesiting in " Damage angligible in buildings of-good design and structure, slight to k [,

moderate in well built ordinary buildings, and considerable in poorly built or bad designed structures." Intensity VI is characterised..

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towers are of good design and structure, the poseihility of damage by slight e is peerly built b=41 dings.

a===ing that the caa14=g-a would begin to occur at the intensity VII level..

The Three Mile Islaad Emelane Power Plant lies near the borvedney of the 1.-.

Northern Valley and Ridge, and Piedmont Tectoale Provinces. The highest historie earthquaka intenettias (Modified Morea111) recorded in these 7

provinces have been VI.and VII respectively.

D Using conservatives asaansptione, se can estimate the range of probabilities for earthquakaa of Intensity VI or VII. We have done this assuming the fallowing

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All earthquakee withis a '200-mile radius of the plant sita i

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have an equal ebense of occuring at the site itself.

'3 2.

A 1954 event that====ad damage in Wilkes Barre, Pa., ba treated as an earthquake rather than a mining-related event F

as most have supposed.

3.

The availmkle historia reeerds for the past 100 years l

r, include all events of Tateneity V or higher that have escuelly occurred, s,

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d. stance should be used so as to encompam 1mas' un b

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The chance of as Intensit'y'nt or['lar,ger earthquake occurring Le j {}

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maar the site are nonexistant'or so small that they need not be considered.

Our saiculations indicate that the map==1 probability of Intensity VII being fait at the site ranges approvinately from one part in 1500 to one part in 6000. The annual probability of the Intensity VI being felt at the site ranges from one part in 350 to one part in 500. A resent independent study of==riman aseeleration in various parts of the U.S. (Esference 1) whows the acceleration at the site location that has sa annual probability of one part in 475 or a 90 percent ebense of not being anseeded is 50 years sa being 0.05s. This corresponds

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(Esferenes 2) to su intensity a little.less than n and would appear to.

agree with our saiculated estimates.

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.i.;.$.'?T Leon Reiter, Seismologist.

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, References 1.

S.T. Alger:dissen and D.M. Perkins (1976), A Probabilistic Estimate of Maximum Acceleration in the Contiguous United States.

i U.S. Geological Survey, Open File Report 76-416.

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2.

M.D. Trifunac and A.G. Brady (1975). On the Correlation of 4

Seismic Inten'sity Scales with the Peaks of Recorded Strong Ground Motion, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 65, pp. 139-162.

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