ML19276H100
| ML19276H100 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 09/11/1979 |
| From: | Rothfleisch J NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY & SAFEGUARDS (NMSS) |
| To: | Linehan J, Miller H NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR MATERIAL SAFETY & SAFEGUARDS (NMSS) |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7910040383 | |
| Download: ML19276H100 (16) | |
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NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555
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SEP 111973 MEMORANDUM FOR:
H. J. Miller, Leader New Facilities Section Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch J. J. Linehan, Leader Operating Facilities Section Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch FROM:
J. E. Rothfleisch Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch
SUBJECT:
CASELOAD FORECAST UPDATE To develop a base for the required update of the caseload forecast called for by the Caseload Panel (August 30,1979 Meeting Summary attached) it is requested that you review and update the attached material which provided the backup for the branch input to the March 29,1979 "NRC Caseload Planning Projections for Fiscal Years 1981-198S".
Please indicate which of the projected applications have been received, which applicants have been issued new licenses as well as any changes in the forecasts including additions and deletions, based on the best infonnation you have available to date.
In order to meet the "early October" date indicated by Dave Anderson for the NMSS forecast update, it is requested that your input be provided no later than September BI,1979.
N
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. E. Rothflei'ch Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch Division of Waste Management
Enclosure:
As stated cc: Ross A. Scarano, Chief Uranium Recovery Licensing Branch 7 910040 ki3I zzq
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Summary of Caseload Panel Meeting (August 30,1979) 3
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Seotember Revision. The Panel agreed that a revision should be prepared in the same manner as we did last year: 1.e., mark-up text and tables as appropriate, with known information.
In addition to serving as back-up material for OMB hearings on the FY 1981 budget, the revised projections can be the baseline for FY 1980 DUTS. For the reactor table, Boyd, Berkow, Lovelace, Mathews and Schaub will meet on September 21 (10 AM) and mark-up.
Rothfleisch (and Anderson) will provide fuel cycle and safeguards input to the Panel by September 18.* No updates will be done of "Other" categories.
The Panel will submit a revised report to the EDO by September 29.
2.
1982-1986 Projections. There was strong agreement that, for the time being, tne Panel snoulo prepare only 5-yr. projections. Any expansion of projections to 1.990 or 1995 should be a separate effort, dependent on available resources andmethodology.
(It is believed that this type of effort requires substantial resources, although the Panel does not cbject to MPA developing a separate analysis, particularly as it relates to reactors operationg.) The Panel recognizes that projections involving a " range" would force preparation of multiple budgets, an undesirable situation. Any range developed should en-compass a mid-projection which is based on the same data as the Caseload Panel projections.
3.
Other Catecaries. The Parel believes it desirable to add Spent Fuel Shipments ano Operating Reactor License Amendments to next year's report. Rothfleisch and Schaub (respectively) will report back to the Panel at the next meeting the feasible methodology to make projections for these categories.
Boyd will discuss with SP the desirability and methodology of including State Emergency Plans and with SD projections of Standards and Guides. Regarding State Emergency Plans, there does not appear to be sufficient resources associated with the " Caseload," nor the need for more.than one office to be involved, which are two of the criteria for including categories. Likewise, since SD's workload partially is driven by user needs, it is unlikely that NRR and NMSS would be able to identify requirements for guides far enough in g
advance, at least for the outyears. Boyd will report back to the Panel. The Panel proposes to drop the category of "Special Projects."
4.
Statistical Analysis. Abramson discussed our past attempts at developing a range, as well as possible methods to statistically quantify the uncertainty.
Another meeting is scheduled for September 24 to discuss this with Berkow and Mathews, who were not present at the August 30 meeting.
ThePane)believesthatthemodelforprojectingfuelloaddatesforreactors is the best we can presently use with available data, although it may be optimistic. The Panet believes that much more data, and resources, are needed e,
- (Subsequently, Dave Anderson called and said i't would be difficult for NMSS to do before FY end. He could have something by "early October.")
2 to attempt developing a similar type model for fuel cycle facilities (see below).
In the interim, as soon as.the September 1979 update is completed,-
Boyd will prepare a comparison of the June 78, Sept 78, April 79 and Sept 79 projections (initially for reactors and uranium mills) by years to see if any discernible trend is apparent, which could be used to measure uncertainty or vaiiance over time.
5.
Model Relatino Reactors to Fuel Cycle. The Panel believes development of sucn a model is nignly amoitious and would require a large amount of data collection. By October 15, Boyd and Abramson will prepare a draft scope of effort including the expected accomplishment of such a model and the variables involved, i.e., mix of foreign and domestic uranium requirements, price, state of nuclear technology, etc. The Panel would then attempt to identify r
data sources, milestones, and resources. The Panel believes it might be poss4ble to contract for some of the effort, although it is unlikely that any useful model could be developed before late 1980, too late for use in the 1982-86 projections.
6.
Future Events. A tentative schedule is attached.
9 1 M. Boyd, C airman /6/79 Sy
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Caseload Panel
Attachment:
As Stated.
Attendees:
L. Abramson, MPA i
W. Lovelace, MPA t
L. Schaub, CON J.Rothfleisch,NMSN e
S. Boyd, MPA cc: Attendees
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CASEI OAD FOREC?'J APPLICAflT 100tTIFICATIONS FY 1979 1.' Mills Nett_ (3)
Major Amendments (7)
Renewals (0)
Exxon Minerals (2)
Adobe Oil & Gas Union Carbide Corp.
linion Carbide Corp.
United Nuclear Corp.
Urangesellsc. haft Petrotomics Tennessee Valley Authority Atlas-Miz:erals.
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2.
Other U Ore Processina New (3)
Major Amendments (1)
Renewals (0)
Energy Fuels Nuclear Plateau Resources (Decomissioning)
Kerr-McGee CotterCorp.(R&D) 3.
Solution Mining Commercial New (2)
Maiur Amendments (0)
Renettals (0) 0 ie Petrole'.im*
9 Rocky ticuntain Energy (Nine MilcsLake)
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4.
Other Solution Recovery New (6)
Major frientients (0)
Renewals (3)
Homestake Mining Cleveland Cliffs CONOCO**
University of Wyoming Wyoming Mineral
/ rush Wellman/
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Ilo::estake Mininq
/h Gul f*
Std.OilofIndia(ta(fiontana)
- Personal comunication (R. Cooperstein)
- from previous forecast eym
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FY 1980 1.
Mills New (11)
Major Amendments (7)
Renewals (0)
Rock'y~fitn. Energy Co. (2)
Homestake Mining (Utah)
Exxon Minerals Homestake Mining (WY)
Petrotomics Pathfinder Mines (WY)
Unidentified (5)
Standard Metals (Alaska)
(Based on past experience Tenn. Valley Auth. (SD)-
and number of licensed Cotter Corp. (UY) mills)
Cleveland Cliffs (WY) felaut Anaconda (WY)
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CONOC0 (WY) 2.
Other U Ore Processing New (2)
Major Anendments (0)
Renewals (1)
Pioneer Nuclear Gulf R&D**
SM, Inc.
3.
Solution tiining Commercial New (4)
MajorAmendments(1)
Renewals'(0)
Minerals Exploration Wyoming Mineral Nuclear Dyncmics Wold Nuclear Rocky Mountain Energy (Reno Ranch)
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4.
Other Solution Recovery New (5)
Major fc.eriments (2)
Renet:c:ls (2)
Nuclear Dynamics Gulf R&D (Site 1)
Hinerals Exploration Pioneer Nuclear Unidentified (1.)
Rocky Mountain :nargy Gulf R&D (Site 2)
Unidentified (1)
Cleveland Cliffs
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- Renewal of R&D license for U extraction studies
hh FY 1981 1.
Mills New (3 )
Ma.ior Amendments (8)
Renewals (1)
' Rocky Mtn. Energy Co.
Unidentified (2)
Unidentified (8)
Petrotomics
- C 2.
'ther U Ore " '.1e,; ',
New(2)
Major Amendments (0)
Renewals (0)
Unidentified (1)
Cotter Corp. (Carni) 3.
Solution Minina Commercial New (4 )
Major Amendments (2)
Renewals (0)
Nuclear Dynamics Unidentified (2)
Wold Nuclear Cleveland Cliffs Energy Resources Corp.
4.
OU;er Solution Recovery New(4)
Major Nnendments (2)
Renewals _(2)
Western Nuclear Unidentified (2)
Cotter Corp.
Exxon Minaral Unidentified (3) 5.
Uranium Fuel Fabrication
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New (0)
Major Amendments (9)
Reneyty_1s_ (5)
C.E., Windsor United Nu;1 ear, Wood River United Nuclear, B&W, Lynchburg (CNFP)
Uncasville Unidentified (7)
C.E., Windsor General Atomic G.E., Wilmington ow,,.
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REMEWALS FY-1982
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1.
Bear Creek Uranium S Pathfinder Mines - Shirley Basin Uranium Mills (3) 3.
Rio Algom 1.
Holmes & Narver, R&D Heap Leach }
Other U Processing (1)
Wyoming Mineral, (3p'per Leach Liquor)
Other Solu Recovery (1) 1.
1.
B&W Lynchburg (NFD)
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2.
C.E., Hematite Uranium Fuel Fab. (5) 3.
G.E., San Jose 4.
Kerr-McGee Nuclear, Crescent 5.
United Nuclear, Uncasville 1.
Atomics International Pu R&D (2) 2.
Kerr-McGee, Crescent 1.
Allied Chemical, Metropolis }
UFG Production (1)
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.D RENE'.-?ALS FY-1983 1.
Pathfinder Mines, Gas Ilills h
Uranium Mill (1) 1.
t!ald Nuclear
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Kerr-McGee Nuclear 3.
Nuclear Dynamics Other Solu Recovery (6) 4.
Rocky Mountain Enerov 5.
JSP Corporation
'T5 6.
Ogle Petrolet..i
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1.
Kerr-McGee, Sequoyah
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UF6 Production (1)
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Westinghouse, Columbia U = Fuel Fab. (1)
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REMEUALS FY-19'%
1.
Atlas Mineral
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2.
Exxcn Mineral
- 3.. Union Carbide Gas Hills lestern Nuclear Uranium Mills (3) 4.
[dineralsExploration 5.
6.
United Nuclear 7.
Energy Fuels 8.
Plateau Resources 1.
Wyoming Mineral Solu Mining (Comml)
(2) 2.
Exxon Mineral
5 Cleveland Cliffs (40-8200) i.
Other Solu Recovery (6) 2.
Wyoming Mineral I
3.
Homestake Mining 4.
Energy Resources Corporation 5.
Gulf R&D 6.
Cleveland Cliffs U Fuel Fab. (1) l.
B&W Apollo 1.
B&W, Parks Township 2.
Battelle, Columbus Pu RtD (4) 3.
G.E. Vallecitos 4.
Westinghouse, Cheswick 1.
Plateau Resources CBS 2.
Energy Fuels OSS (Blanding)
Other U Processing (3) g 3.
Energy Fuels CSS (Hanksville)
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PEflEHALS FY-1985 1.
Federal-Anerican Partners 2.
Adobe Oil & Gas Uranium Mills (5) 3., Union Carbide Corporation (Chord) 4.
Urangesellschaf t 5.
Kerr-McGeeNuclear(PcwderRiver) 1.
Energy Fuel., ieap Leach Other U Processing (2) 2.
Kerr-McGee Heap Leach 1
1.
Ogle Petroleum
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Solu Mining (connl)
(2) 2.
Rocky Mountain Energy 1.
liinerals Exploration 2.
Rocky Mountain Energy 40-8380 t
3.)
Other. Solu Recovery (7) 4.i 5.
Five of six received FY 79 6.
and licensed FY 80 7.
1.
Battelle Northwest 2.
Exxon ?!uclear Uranium Fuel Fab. (4) 3.
Texas Instrument 4.
NFS Erwin Pu R&D 1.
ban Lynchburg, R&D s
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4 TOTAL FACILITIES LICENS_E_D, 1.
Uranium Mills End FY 1979 (14)
Docket Humber 1.
Atlas !iinerals 40-3453 2.
Bear Creek Uranium 40-8452 3.
Exxon Company 40-8102 4.
Federal-American Partners 40-4492
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5.
Pathfinder Minas, Gas Hills 40-2259 6.
Pathfinder Mines, Shirley Basin 40-6622 7.
Petrotomics 40-6659 8.
Rio Algom, Ltd.
40-8084 9.
Union Carbide Corporation 40-299
- 10. Western Nuclear, Inc.
40-1162
- 11. Minerals Exploration (Sweetwater)*
40-8584
- 12. United Nuclear (Morton Ranch)*
40-8602
- 13. Energy Fuels (White Mesa)*
40-8681
- 14. Plateau Resources, Ltd. (Shootering Canyon)*
40-8698
- Licensed FY-1979 Completed FY 1980 (4) 1.
Adobe Oil & Gas 2.
Union Carbide Corporation (Chord SD) 3.
Urangesellschaft 4.
Kerr-McGeeNuclear(PowderRiver)
Ccmpleted FY 1981 (5)
Six of clavca applications received FY 80.
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Cm1pletad FY 1982 (G)
Five of cleven applications received FY 80 Three app?ications received FY 81 v
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tL Total Facilitire, Licented, page 2 2.
Other Uranium Ore Processing End FY 1979 (5) 1.
Plateau Resources 035
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2.
Energy Fuels CBS (Blanding)
Licensed FY-1979 3.
Energy Fuels CBS (Hanksville) j 4.
Plateau Resources (R&D)
St.
Holmes & Narver (R&D)'
Comolete FY 1980 (3) 1.
Energy Fuels Heap Leach Kerr-McGee Heap Leach 2.
Cotter Corporation R&D Heap Leach j 3.
(Plateau Resources R&D Decommissioned)
Total End FY 1980 = 7 licensed Completed FY 1981 (2) 1.
Pioneer Nuclear 2.
SM, Inc.
3.
Solution Mining (Ccmmercial Scale)
End FY 1979 (2)-
1.
Wyoming Mineral 4o-SW 2.
E;e.xon Minerals T
Capleted FY 1980 (2) 1.
Ogle Petroleum 2.
Rocky Mountain Energy (Nine Mile Lake)
Completed FY 1981 (4) 1.
Minerals Exploration 2.
Nuclear Dynami,cs 3.
Wold Nuclear.
4.
Rocky Mountain Energy (Reno Ranch) e 6 #9
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/3 Totsl Facilities Licensed, page 3 4.
Other Soluticn Reco'!ery_
End FY 1979 (14)
Docket Number 1.
Cleveland Cliffs 40-8200 2.
Cotter Corporation 40-8511 3.
Exxon flinerals 40-8064 4'.
Minerals Exploration 40-8348 5.
Rocky Mountain Energy 40-8380 6.
Wyoming Mineral 40-8304 7.
Wold Nuclear 40-8635 8.
Kerr-McGee t!uclear 40-8586 9.
Nuclear Dynamics 40-8663
- 10. Homestake Mining 40-8424
- 11. Wyoming Mineral 40-8585
- 12. JSP Corporation 40-8584
- 13. Rocky Mountain Energy 40-8697
,14.
Ogle Petroleum 40-8693
.15.
Energy Resources Corporation
- 40-8707
- 76. Gulf R&D*
40-8712
- 17. Cleveland Cliffs
- 40-8714
- Licensed FY 1979 Completed FY 1080 1.
2.
3.
Five of six received in FY 1979 4.
5.
N Cc:noleted FY 1931, I
One of six received in FY 1979 3.
4.
Fise received in FY 1980 5.
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AGRE3tE!!T STATES ASS'^TANCE PROGRAM
'(Uranium Reco',2ry)
State & Comoany Activity Year Washir.qton D::wn Mining Mill License Renewal FY-79 Dawn Mining New Application for Heap Leach Facility FY-79 Western t!uclear Mill License Renewal' FY-80 (Wellpini t)
Colorado Cotter Corporation Mill License Renewal /
FY-79 New Mill Operation Cotter Corporation Uranium Mine Ore Sorter FY-79 Union Carbide Uravan Mill License Renewal FY-79 Union Carbide Rifle Mill License Re-activation FY-79 Ranchers Exploration Durango Mill Tailings Heap Leach FY-79 Wyoming Minerals Comm1 Solu Mining (Keota)
FY-79 Pioneer Nuclear New Mill' (Naturita)
FY-79 Uyoming Minerals R&D Solu Mining FY-80 Cyprus Mining New Mill (Fremont Cnty)
FY-79 Rocky Mountain Energy R&D Solution Mining FY-81 Gates & Fox Company Heap Leach. (Naturita)
FY-79 New Mexico
'Culf Mineral New Mill (Mt Taylor)
FY-79 Phillips Petrolcum New Mill (Nose Rock)
FY-79 Eckum Reccurces New Mill (Marquez)
FY-79 TVA - UiiC - Burns Solu Minirg (Navajo Res.)
FY-70 C0:10C0 New Mill (Crown Point)
FYJCd g
Exnon Solu Mining (L-Bar Ranch)
FY -79 Picncer fluclear Solu Mining (R&D)
FY-00 Homestake Solu Mining (R&D)
FY-79 Anaconda, Bluewater*
Mill Renewal-FY-79 Kerr-McG.c, Ambrosia Lake
- Mill Renewal FY-79 U:!C - Homestake, Grants
- Mill Renewal FY-79 CCtl0C0 New Mill (Bernabe Project)
FY-81
- Assistance on Special Problems may be requested.
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Aiarec: vent Sta tes Assistance, page 2 Arizona Rinerals Exploration New Mill (Anderson Project)
FY-79 Wycming Minerals licap Leach FY-79 Wyqning Minerais New Mill FY-79 Uycaing Minerais Heap Leach FY-80 Idaho undesignated U Byproduct from Phosphoric Acid FY-79 Undosignated U Byproduct frcm Phosphoric Acid FY-80 Nevada Bobcat Properties New Mill (Lincoln Co)
FY-80 Bobcat Properties Heap Leach or Solu Mining (Elko County)
FY-80 Places Development Corp.
Solu Mining FY-80 (Nevada or Oregon)
Chevron Resources Company New Mill FY-80 U0C0 Heap Leach Undesignated 8
O S
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TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE CASES RECEIVED TO DATE (8[9f 7 Colorado Pioneer Nuclear New mill Cyprus Mining New mill Pitch Project New mill Cotter Corporation Mill expansion Cotter Schwartzwalder Ore sorter Ranchers Exploration - Durango Heap leach Ranchers Exploration - Naturita Heap leach Gates and Fox Company Heap leach Union Carbide - Uravan Renewal Wyoming Minerals - Keota Solution extraction New Mexico Bokum Resources New mill Phillips Petroleum New mill Gulf Resources New mill Arizona Minerals Exploration New mill Pinal Project Heap leach Texas Everest Minerals In-situ T
Uranium Resources In-situ Washington Dawn Mining Renewal J
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