ML19274D285

Motion by Ucs to File Brief & Reply Amicus Curiae & for Inclusion on Svc List for Commission Review.Asserts Ucs Has Particular Interest in Issues Involved in Proceeding

ML19274D285
Person / Time
Site:	Atlantic Nuclear Power Plant
Issue date:	01/12/1979
From:	Weiss E SHELDON, HARMON & WEISS
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ML19274D286	List: ML19274D285 ML20083K288
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NUDOCS 7901230023
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{{#Wiki_filter:e -4 42 g ~ Y NRCFUBGCDL ~ "I-d 4 3<0. 9 ) UNITED STATES OF AMERICA i,; 3phs g,q, g NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION gyl/ /, 4 In the Mattar of ) ) OFFSHORE POWER SYSTEMS ) Docket No. STN 50-437 ) (Floating Nuclear Power ) Plants) ) MOTION FOR LEAVE TO FILE BRIEF AND REPLY BRIEF AMT.CUS CURIAE AND FOR INCLUSION ON THE SERVICE LIST FOR COMMISSION REVIEW Pursuant to 10 CFR S2.715(d) and the Commission's Order of December 8, 1973, inviting the participation of amici'in this proceeding, the Union of Concerned Scientists moves for permission to file the enclosed brief amicus curiae and a reply brief within the time allotted to the parties. UCS is a non-profit, public interest organization, which grew out of a faculty group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the late 1960's. It represents a coalition of scientists, engineers and academicians sup-ported by over 50,000 members of the public. UCS's primary areas of interest are the health, safety, environmental and naticaal security issues posed by civilian rearsor develop-ment and nuclear weapons proliferation. UCS has published numerous technical reports on various aspccts of nuclear technology and has been involved in a number of proceedings before the NRC. UCS has a particular interest in the issues involved in this proceeding. The propriety of basing regulatory policy 790123CO7_3 d^

- on technically indefensible est.imates of tne probability of accidents is at issue in UCS' Petition for Emergency and Remedial Action, still pending before the Commission. The organization published one of the major pieces of technical criticism of WASH-1400, "The Risks of Nuclear Power Reactors, A Review of the NRC Reactor Safety Study" (1977) and is pursuing before the Commission the broad implications of the Risk Assessment Review Group Report, NUREG/CR-0400. Because neither 10 CFR S2.715(d) nor the Commission's Order of December 8, 1978, clearly deals with the rights of amici to file reply briefs, UCS specifically requests per-mission to file a reply within the time allotted to the parties so that we might answer the arguments proferred. In addition, UCS asks to be placed on the service list for Commission res.ew so that we may receive the filings of the other participants expeditiously. l M BY: Ellyn R. Weiss Sheldon, Harmon, Roisman & Weiss 1025 15th Street, N.W. Suite 500 Washington, D.C. 20005 (202) 833-9070 DATED: January 12, 1979

UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION In the Matter of ) ) OFFSHORE POWER SYSTEMS ) Docket No. STN 50-437 ) (Floating Nuclear Power ) Plants) ) BRIEF OF THE UNION OF CONCERNED SCIENTISTS, AMICUS CURIAE Summary and Introduction The Commission h is accepted review of the following question certified tc it by time.'.ppeal Board in ALAB-500: whether Class 9 accidents are a proper subject for considera-tion in the staff's environmental statement on the floating nuclear power plant application. In its Order of December 8, 1978, the Commission invited the participation of amici curiae,in this review and permitted amicus briefs to be submitted which support, oppose or take no position on the certified question. In response to the Commission's invita-tion, the Union of Concerned Scientists ("UCS") has prepared this brief. UCS believes that the result reached in ALAB-489 was the correct one; that is, that the environmental review done for the OPS proceeding should include an evaluation of the probabi-lity and consequence of Class 9 accidents. UCS will not present argument here on the merits of the specific reasoning adopted by the Appeal Board in ALAB-489, but will instead 79012360ZC

, present an alternative argument supporting the result reached. This should not be taken as expressing either disagreement or agreement with the rationale of ALAB-489. UCS' position, briefly stated, is that the Commission lacks a technically defensible basis for unsupported state-ments in the Annex to Appendix D of 10 CFR Part 50 that the probability of the occurrence of Class 9 accidents is "so small that their environmental risk is extremely low. The only arguably scientific support for such a conclusion was the Reactor Safety Study -- WASH-1400 -- and its con-clusions with regard to this issue have been fatally under-mined by the recently published Report of the Risk Aasessment Review Group, NUREG/CR-0400. In the absence of a rationally supportable method of classifying some accident sequences as " incredible," and in advance of a rulemaking proceeding to 1/ amend the Annex,- the appropriate course of action for the Commission to follow is to permit the issue of Class 9 accidents to be raised on a case-by-case basis, as it did with the issue of the environmental effects of radon. In addition, we will argue that, as a matter of law, the interim Annex cannot serve as a basis for excluding the consideration of Class 9 accidents. The Annex is not a rule; 1/ It should be noted that UCS has submitted to the Commission a " Draft NRC Statement of Policy Concerning Reactor Safety Study and Notice of Intention to Promulgate Regulations," attached to a letter of November 1, 1978, to the Commissioners. We believe that the proposed rulemaking discussed in that document provides a reasonable basis for dealing with this issue generically.

.. at most it is an interim statement of policy promulgated and maintained without the re3aisites of administrative due process which attach to rulemaking and adjudication. There-fore, the factual basis and conclusions of the Annex are open to challenge in licensing proceedings. Argument 1. The Exclusion of Class 9 Accidents from Considera-tion on the Basis of the Annex is Technically Indefensible. Since 1971, the AEC and then the NRr have followed the practice of disregarding the potentially enormous environ-mental effects of a " catastrophic" reactor accident (breach of containment or core molt) on the grounds that the probabil-ity of su:h an accident occurring is so remote as to be essentially incredible. The slim reed upon which this regu-latory position is based is found in the proposed Annex to Appendix D of 10 CFR part 50 which has had the status of an "interin" policy statement for seven (7) years. The Annex neither contains nor references any technical support for the conclusion that the probability of a Class 9 accident is " remote," nor does the Annex provide a quantitative equivalent of the terms, "so small," or,"sufficiently remote." Hence, the Appeal Board's characterization of the Annex is appropriate: the likelihood of a Class 9 occurrence "is deemed highly improbabic (ALAB-489, 8 NRC 194, 209 (August, 1978.) Emphasis added.)

. The Reactor Safety Study ("RSS") was undertaken by the AEC in 1972 for the critically important purpose of estab-lishing a solid, scientific basis for the Commission's claims about the safety of nuclear reacters. While the AEC claimed, as in the Annex, that its regulatory policies of defense-in-depth, quality assurance,-2/ maintenance and testing, and conservative design, resulted in an extremely low probability of catastrophic accident, it had no docu-mented estimates of accident probabilities or of the overall level of risk posed by the commercial nuclear plants it licensed. Dr. Peter Morris, then Director of the AEC's Division of Reactor Licensing, stated in an April, 1972, memorandum: Associating technically defensible proba-bilities with Class 9 accidents [a major accident involving large radiation releases] is not possible at this time. To develop a basis for this is, and has been, the subject of much discussion among the top Regulatory Staff and a very substantial technical effort over a considerable length of time. 3/ Dr. Stephen H. Hanauer, Technical Advisor to the Director of Regulation at the time, wrote a set of notes on the RSS proposal in March of 1972 that summed up the pre-RSS prcJica-ment of the AEC. All that could be done in justifying the 2/ The staff has lately conceded in another context that the strict quality assurance requirements of 10 CFR Part 50, Appendix B were not applied to the vant majority of react. ors in operation -- all of those which received construction permits prior to July 27, 1970. To these plants, only the "rather general" provisions of Appendix A, GDC-1, were applied.

See, Memorandum from Harold R. Denton to the Commissioners, " Union of Concerned Scientists' Petition for Reconsideration Dated May 2, 1978," August 31, 1978, Enclosure 1, pp. 5-6.

3/ Peter Morris, " Federal Agency Comments on Accident Analysis," AEC internal memorandum, April, 1972.

- licensi.,g of nuclear plants while the RSS was " perking along" was just to " wave arms and talk loud."~4/ It is true, of course, that varisas safety precautions are taken in many aspects of reactor design, construction and operation. What the AEC was lacking, and what the RSS has intended to provide, was a definitive scientific assess-ment of the level of safety achieved by these cafety-related efforts. There was and is no scientific controversy about the fact that the potential consequences of uncontrolled reactor accidents, direct and indirect, are so great that it would be imprudent to build plants, especially near populated areas, unless convincing assurance is available that the actual risk is very low. The RSS was an attempt to demon-strate this point -- the only systematic attempt the AEC or the NRC has ever undertaken. The undermining of critical portions of the RSS as a consequence of the Risk Assessment Review Group Report leaves the Commission with no technical basis for concluding that the probability of a Class 9 accident is so remote as to justify the Annex's direction that the consequences of such accidents be excluded from review. The Risk Assessment Review Group was composed of a panel of scientists established by the NRC in July, 1977, to review WASII-1400 and its growing body of peer criticism. The final 4/ Stephen II. llanauer, " Notes on MIT Study Proposal," AEC internal memorandum, March 22, 1972.

d ' . report of the group, NUREG/CR-0400, was published.in September, 1978. It concludes, inter alia, that, although the method-ology of WASH-1400 may in certain limited instances be usefully employed, particularly as an indication of areas requiring research priority, the quantitative risk assessment provided in WASH-1400 is technically indefensible. This is due in many cases to an inadequate data base, in others to a failure to quantifi common cause accidents, and finally to the use of some unjustifiable methodological and statistical techniques, among other reasons. The Risk Assessment Review Group recom-mends a number of steps. Among the most significant are that neither the absolute risk figures nor the consequence model from WASH-1400 be used uncritically in the regulatory process. The RSS does not provide a valid scientific assessment of the safety of nuclear power reactorc. WASH-1400 is defective in many significant ways. Many of the calculations are wrong, and the absolute risk figures are not reliable; WASH-1400 does not support the conclusion that the probabi' i ty of a Class 9 accident is so remote as to be incredible for regulatory purposes. Tacitly, the staff has recognized the indefensibility of the Annex's absolutist public position on Class 9 accidents. Indeed, it maintained before the Appeal Board that its inter-pretation of the siting guidelines of Part 100, as expressed i

i e in the Standard Review Plan ("SRP"), should have made it clear to applicants that a highly populated proposed site could be rejected solely because of the potential population exposures which might result from a Class 9 accident. (See, ALAB-489, supra, at 223-223). As the Appeal Board nm?ad, the circumspect, virtually " code" language of the SRP makes no use of the terms " Class 9 accidents," " core-melt," or " accidents beyond the design basis." (Id, n. 107 p. 224). While the Appeal Board was concerned that such obfus-cation might result in a failure to fairly inform applicants of what is required of them,.UCS takes a somewhat different view of the matter. In our opinion, both applicants and staff are aware of the way Part 100 is used to reject highly populated sites that would otherwise meet the regulations; it is the public and perhaps even some of the Commissioners who have not been provided with the key to the code. UCS believes that the staff should continue to reject highly populated sites but that it should clearly and publicly acknowledge that it does so based upon a consideration of the consequences of Class 9. accidents. It should also acknowledge that the Annex's exclusion of such events from environmental review is incongruous and technically unjusti-fiable. We include for the Commission's consideration a copy of a memorandum and attachments released to UCS pursuant to a Freedom of Information request. The memorandum, dated April 18,

. 1975, from Steph: , Hanauer to Edson C. Case, Deputy Director, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, provides comments on various proposed alternative regulatory methods for dealing with core melt accidents for the floating nuclear plant.~5/ Dr. Hanauer stated: CORE MELT CONSIDERATIONS FOR FLOATING NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS While I agree with you that Alternative 1 is untenable, I do not think that the issue you raise can be considered solely within the four corners of the floating plant question.

True, we might do as the lawyers suggest and try to treat floating plants specially because of the lack of experience, but this does not seem to me to be a correct position.

Moreover, I do not believe that your proposed Alternative 4 really solves the problem. The licensability of the floating plant depends, it seems to me, on two decisions: (1) Whether the plant -- reactor platform, moorings, break-water, etc. -- are adequately designed, and (2) Whether it is alright to put this sort of machine out in the water near the coast. If only design basis accidents are considered, and if such problems as breakwaters and ship collisions are properly resolved, there is no difference in concept between land reactor safety and floating reactor safety. But this is not be any means the first time that such questions have affected reactor licensing. Indeed, if only design basis accidents and the words of Fart 100 are considered, we would allow plants to be built in Burlington for cure, and probably at Edgar and Ravenswood. Yet all these three sites were rejected because they are too close to large populations. One of the rationales for this was the unlikelihood of successful evacuation of large dense popu-lations. However, behind this was another consideration in the backs of everybody's 5/ UCS does not presently have a copy of either Enclosure 1 to Dr. Hanauer's memorandum or the document describing the alternatives which Dr. Hanauer was commenting on, although they should, of course, be accessible to the Commission. UCS recommends that they also be made accessible to the public.

_9_ minds that very 'arge accidents 're possible and that their possibility, cven though they are very improbable, dictates keeping reactors out of highly populated areas. I believe that the ACRS is correct in asking the FNP applicant to consider accidents worse than the design basis. I believe that NRC should also develop an adequate appreciation whether bad accidents (outside the design basis) would be ' catastrophic' in the FNP. Now, unfortunately, I don't have a good definition for ' catastrophic' or a good definition how low the probability should be before I am willing to accept a ' catastrophic.' Ideally, one would have at least a comparative Rasmussen-like study. In the real world, this is some time off. Dr. Hanauer's memorandum supports the UCS argument that the Annex's treatment of Class 9 accidents is insup-portable and that the staff's actions have recognized as much. This may have special significance in the OPS case insofar as it illuminates the point that the consequences portion of the risk equation is constantly shifting, depending on site-specific factors. Analysis of the consequences of Class 9 accidents in the context of P-t 100 is already done on a case-by-case basis, reflecting the tremendous difference that site-specific characteristics, primarily of population density and distribution, can make on the cal-culation of consequences. It may be suggested to the Commission that it should resolve this dilemma by repudiating the staff's interpretation of Part 100 and thus removing any consideration of Class 9 accidents from the licensing process. That would be a

disastrous irony, and we urge the Commission to reject any such invitation to hide its head in the sand. Rather, the Commission should now affirm that the excessively prolonged period of relying on the " interim" Annux to shut off NEPA review of the risks of Class 9 accidents is ended and allow these issues to be explored on a case-by-case basis pending generic resolution 2. The Exclusion of Calls 9 Accidents from Consideration on the Basis of the Interim Annex is Legally Indefensible. Both the majority and the dissent in ALAB-489 rely on the policy purported to have been established when the Annex to Appendix D of 10 CFR Part 50 was published as part of a proposed rule. (36 FR 22851-52, December 1, 1971). Only by finding that the risks of Class 9 accidents at floating nuclear plants had not been considered at the time the Annex was published does the majority reach the c nelusion that the Class 9 accidents must be considered here. While the result in this case is correct, reliance on the Annex for the proposition that Class 9 accidents need not and may not be considered is misplaced. The Annex is nothing more than an unsupported statement of what the Commission once proposed as a policy but never adopted. It is not a regulation, and it is not binding on any of the parties, including the Commission. As the majority explained,-6/ the Annex was part of a 6/ ALAB-489, supra, pp. 209-210. proposed rule for implementing NEPA. When it issued the Annex, the AEC explained that: The proposed amendments would, by the addition of an Annex to Appendix D, specify certain standardized accident assumptions to be used in Environmental Reports submitted by applicants for construction permits or operating licenses for nuclear power reactors pursuant to Appendix D. The accident assumptions and other provisions of the proposed amendments would also be applic-able to AEC draft and final Detailed Statements. (36 FR 22851. Emphasis added.) At that time, the Commission apparently understood that it was not yet establishing standardized accident assumptions, and that it had-to take further action in order to do so. The Commission also understood,that even proposed rules may be useful to the public in indicating the approach that it intends to take: The Commission expects that the provisions of the proposed amendments will be useful as interim guidance until such time as the Commission takes further action on them. (11- ) Since the proposed rule was issued, the Commission has taken no action with respect to the Annex, though it did codify other parts of its NEPA regulations in 1974, at which time it stated that the Annex was "still under consideration," and that its status had not changed. The question, then, is what the Annex was, and what impact, if any,it could have on licensing proceedings. The answer is that the Annex was simply a general statement of policy that had no force of law and could have no impact. The fundamental rules of administrative procedure.and due process that govern this case were clearly stated in Pacific Gas & Electric Co. v. Federal Power Commission, 506 F, 2d 33, 38 (D.C. Cir. 1974): An administrative agency has available two ' methods for formulating policy that will have the force of law. An agency may establish binding policy through rulemaking procedures by which it promulgates substantive rules, or through adjudications which constitute binding pre-cedents. A general statement of policy is the outcome of neither a rulemaking nor an adjudication; it is neither a rule nor a precedent but is merely an announcement to the public of the policy which the agency hopes to implement in future rulemakings or adjudica-tions. A general statement of policy, like a press release, presages an upcoming rulemaking or announces the course which the agency intends to follow in future adjudications. The Annex has not been made binding either through rule-making or through binding precedents. It merely states what the Commission intended in 1971 to establish as policy. In the Court's wards: When the agency applies the policy in a particular situation, it must be prepared to support the policy just as if the policy statement had never been issued. An agency cannot escape its respon-sibility to present evidence and reasoning supporting its substantive rules by announcing binding precedent in the form of a general statement of policy. (Id. Emphasis added.) In this particular situation, the question is whether the possibility of a Class 9 accident is so remote that it need not be considered in environmental reviews required by NEpA. The current evidence, discussed elsewhere in this brief, establishes that there is no rational basis for reaching such a conclusion. However, even assuming that the Appeal Board could reasonably reach that conclusion based on some evidence, it may not do so on the basis of the Annex.

Rather, it must consider the factual issue and reach.a decision independently of the general statement of policy embodied in the Annex.

The Appeal Board cites three cases to support its. reliance on the Annex, Carolina Environmental Study Group v. United States, 510 F. 2d 796 (D.C. Cir. 1975), Porter County Chapter of Izaak Walton League v. Atomic Energy Commission, 533 F. 2d 1011 (7th Cir. 1976), and Ecology Action v. United States Atomic Energy Commission, 492 F.2d 998 (2d Cir. 1974). The latter case is irrelevant because it involves only the ques-tion of whether a Commission decision could be appealed and does not involve any substantive issues. The first two do consider the distinction between Class 9 and other types of accidents, but the decision in each case is based explicitly and clearly on the record of that case. For example, in Carolina Environmental Study Group, supra, relied on heavily by the Appeal Board, the petitioners had not introduced any evidence to challenge the conclusions stated in the AEC's environmental impact statement with regard to the remote probability of Class 9 accidents. Rather,'they challenged the basic policy of excluding certain events on probability

. alone. without consideration of consequences. The Court held that "there is a point at which the probability of an occurrence may be so low as to rendar it almost totally unworthy of consideration." (Id., p. 799). The Court was clearly correct in this statement of general principle, and many courts have ruled in similar fashion, articulating the " rule of reason"'for NEPA implementation. The Court went on to make it clear that its acceptance of a Class 9 accident as one of such low probability was based solely on the record of _ hat proceeding, consisting of the unchallenged statements of the AEC: We find nothing in the instant record which would indicate that the AEC findings regarding Class 9 accidents are clearly erroneous (pl., p. 800. Emphasis added.) No court has ever held that the interim policy statement contained in the Annex can be used at the threshold to cut off inquiry into the factual basis for or the conclusions expressed in the Annex. Such a ruling would be unthinkable, particularly when the party which seeks to initiate the inquiry is the NRC staff. We are left, in this case, with a decision based on a proposed rule that has never been issued as a final rule. Since it was merely a proposal made seven years ago, there is no indication of what form it would take if ever finalized. All we know is that the Commission is still "considering" it. As stated by the Court in Wuillamey v. Werblin, 364 F. Supp.

. 237, 243 (D.N.J. 1973): A proposed regulation may be modified or abandoned. It does not have the force of law. Since the Annex, either as a statement of policy or as a proposed rule, does not have the force of law, it cannot be used as the basis for cutting off all inquiry into the risks of Class 9 accidents. Conclusion Unlike the Licensing and Appeal Boards, the Commission should not feel itself bound by the words of a 1971 interim policy statement of the AEC which has no basis for continued vitality in fact or in law. There are many grounds, some more narrow than others, upon which the Commission can reach the correct result, which is to allow the parties in the OPS proceeding to develop a record on the risks of Class 9 accidents and the propriety of requiring engineered safe-guards to protect the public from these risks. UCS believes that it is not in the best interest of rational regulatory policy for the Commission to adopt a ruling which would leave its adjudicatory boards uncertain about the status of the Annex. In any case, it is clear that the Annex cannot be used in this proceeding as a shield against consideration of a question vital to the Commission's duty to protect public health and safety. The staff has concluded that new safeguards are required

- in the case of a floating nuclear plant, a new concept in reactor siting, to fully protect the public's safety. The Applicant asks you to rule, without hearing any evidence, that mere consideration of such safeguards is precluded by an interim rule which has been languishing for seven~ years. Such a result is preposterous, and we feel confident that the Commission will reject it. Respectfully submitted, The Union of Concerned Scientists ~ < ;;> r a b BY: N Ellyn/R. Weiss Sheldon, Harmon, Roisman & Weiss 1025 15th Street, N.W. Suite 500 Washington, D.C. 20005 (202) 833-9070 DATED: January 12, 1979

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,v..?. :..... ..n....'v3... fm.1 s:e y :...... -:: - 3 .3 While I agree with you that Alternative 1 is untenable, I do not think f.w.i.,. %p.;g W that the issue you raise can be considered solely within the four . i '.% corners of the ficating plant question. True, we night do as the 0@ lawyers suggest and try to treat floating plants specially because of . -?- M the lack of experience, but this does not seen to me to be a correct /'. R& M ..,t.,. position. Moreover, I do not believe that your proposed Alternative,4 - [ 'u #.: really sc1ves the problem. v t;$ .;y q ;; Mi " 'The licensability of the floating plant depends, it see=s to ne, on two " '.* decisions: (1) Uhather the plant - reactor platfom, noorings, break- . J., -4 - water, etc. - are adequately designed, and (,2) whether it is alright to - T 7<. ~~y put this sort of cachine out in the water rnar the coast. ..z ~. 3 ' / i If only design basis accidents are considered, and if such' problets as '~ ^~ ~ breakwaters and ship collisions are properly resolved, there is no .i 'N ~ A difference in concept betueen land reactor safety and floating reactor ,;,- r ' safety. But this is not by any ceans the first time that such cuestions t have affected reactor licensing. Indeed, if only design basis accidents ".J: and the words of Part 100 were considered, Ne could allcw plants to be "5 built in Surlington for sure, and probably at Edgar and Ravenswood. ' ~ Yet all these three sites were rejected because they are too close to -4 i large populations. One of the rationales for this was the unlikelihood 9 of successful evacuation of large dense populations. However, behind this ~~xT /. was another consideration in the backs of everybody's minds that very large accidents are possible and that their possibility, even though they are b' t i....very imprcbable, dictates keeping reactors cut of highly populated areas... ~ Ji I believe that the ACRS is correct in asking the Fli? applicant'to consider. 3. accidents worse than the design basis. I believe that GRC should also 3 A develop cn adequate appreciation whether bad accidents (outside the design. W - ~ basis) would be " catastrophic" in the FSP. tion, unfortunately I don't have

c. good definition for " catastrophic" or a~ good definition how low the probability should be before I ca willing to accept a " catastrophe".

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.9; Your Alternative 4 is an attecpt to reach sone decisions pending the

- c gM ccepletion of a. good safety study for the. rip. I don't see how it cari .-g be made viable. Itaving opened the question about core nelt consequences, f.n you can't proceed without an answer in ny rpinion. The work you propose ~ .p,:J to get done and the papers you propose to circulate are incceplete, and in f6 a certain way trivial, without an adequate consideration of the core celt ...]3 problem. I cuch prefer your Alternative 5 eith some rearranged priorities j and maybe some intensive uork by the applicant. That's what I think M Alternative 4 would end up inoking 'like anyway. s , n.. L[3 There are so=e other important questions about the floating plant, such as i;n . outside power reliability, stoms and breaknaters, ship collisions, etc. M - I think these should be pursued without waiting for the core melt question. ? *]'.'4 e fr.:- / There are lots of plant design details for which a suitable resolution!is ~ .Cf ..,the present time is really worthwhile. sure to be available. I question whether doing a lot of work on these at f; J.,4;

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April 18,1975 Et Onf f'~ h h SHHanauer nf3 R& SM DETAILED COPAENTS mm Ek Page 1 - The frequency discussed here follows from the assumption that Ng about 1,000 reactors are in operation. Some distinction should be made ig between today with 50 reactors running and A.D. 2000 with 500 to 1,000 bM reactors running. WE MB Page 2 - One of the lessons of the Rasmussen study is that nost core t-@ meltdowns do not have drastic consequences. This puts " catastrophes" b@ further down' on the probability scale because of their unlikelihood EU$ even if the care melts. The discussion here does hot make this distinction ?.%3? and therefore fails to learn an important lesson from the Safety study. .sn t:D$6 Page 4 - The summary in the last half of this page is nore simplistic -Jys than the facts. The material in the last three lines, and on top of -M2 page 5, neglects entirely the sort of considerations that have led WJ to the rejection of proposals to build reactors at Burlington, Ravenswood 69 and Edgar. Thus, while each word of this discussion is true, it fails ~h to take an important factor into account. .>y -jbi Reactors must be shown to be safe in consideration of all possible occurrences. The spectrum of such occurrences ranges from the trivial i to the catastrophic. For occurrences within the design basis the consequences K must be shown to be tolerable by conservative evaluations. .For postulated Q events outside the design basis the probability must be shown to be low and acceptable and qualitatively depend on whether the probability is low TT enough in relation to the consequences. The value of the Safety study is just in that it makes thes.e relationships explicit and quantitative. 3.-y Page 5 - We have indeed implied that core meltdown frequency is lower than

,.s 10-6 per reactor year. This problem is discussed in detail in a separate attachment.

3 ~$ Page 8 - Item 3 has to be demonstrated. It has not been so demonstrated - g 'L yet in a way that is convincing to me. .g Y: Page 9 - The basis for Item 4 is not evident to me. Are there evaluations 1 - lii or calculations.that show this in any quantitative way? In particular, tho - E discussion of differences in failure mode between ice condenser containment 5 and the containments studied in Wash 1400 should be substituted or deleted. -f Similarly, Item 5 seems to contain several unacknowledged conjectures. ) Page 12 - I agree with you that Alternative 1 is untenable. Even if I thought it was true, I doubt if an acceptable defense of it could be = I sold to the board, the courts or the public. I do not believe it is true. Page 13 - I don't see how we could recommend building a small number of

p plants with this kind of an open question regarding their safety.

Alternative 3 ignores the problem unacceptably and proposes that the V..- staff be an ostrich. A wD + ^^ ~ e. o em.

.n 4:yg' y? ? e Q. +y... ,cw es i [kN Mih l t V?w [Nh Page 14 - Alternative 4 - I have connented on this at length in my covering D.g. memo. 4.;m:- f.g@o a 't Page 17 - Alternative 5. I think this is the only course and propose that

{f it be done expeditiously instead of slowly as proposed.

c, %: EE Page 18 - Alternative 6 is what happens if you don't do Alternative 5 with kin considerable speed. I don't know whether lagoons are a viable alternative f.'d for a few years. E:55 _.w-? uw b ' L% s,.( Y.$l

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' CORE MELTDOWN STUDIES SUBJECTS POTENTIAL CONTRACTORS PRIORITY Vapor ANL/ Henry Explosion ANL/CE Sandia ~.. Molten Core Sandia ~ Act w/ ~ ~ Concrete Large scale test Naval Surface Weapon Center Fission product Marine dispersion F.P. Transport ORNL(ongoing) ,gir y L_d C3 W 6;;;;;i) W e 4 s gg p ggso e \\ NhkYi$$$$5.f$5f$)Nj k?%$2fhSOfM.S$&N$,V-)&fY$.'"N?W$$WiM'{fd.b!NWW@$$$NSUHNYM$5MW.4%NV.CNSbh.*N!"96' 5}}