ML19263D173

Discusses Present & Projected Needs for Energy in State of Wa.Quotes Statistical Predictions Showing Population Will Continue to Outstrip Energy Supply & That Need for Plant Is Greater Now than During 1977 Wa Energy Crisis

ML19263D173
Person / Time
Site:	Skagit
Issue date:	02/22/1979
From:	Adair F WASHINGTON, STATE OF
To:	Deale V Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
References
NUDOCS 7903220092
Download: ML19263D173 (2)

Text

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- 3._f2A-i STATE OF WASHINGTON STATE ENERGY OFFICE

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g MAR S1979ybil Mr. Valentine B. Deale, Chairman c.%

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q, Washington, D. C. 20036

Dear Mr. Deale:

Mr. Ben Ellwanger of the Washington State Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council, whom you met at the time of the Skagit prehearing conference, advised me that you would welcome my comments on need for power.

Your interest is very much appreciated.

I will speak in general and summary terms of the need for power from two reference points.

The first is the Governor's specific assertion of need for the Skagit Plants at the time of state certification in January, IS77.

What has happened since then?

The second is the several month period in the middie of 1977 when the Northwest was experiencing a year of low precipitation and throughout this period was on the verge of ra.tioning electricity. Again, what has happened since then?

I have chosen this approach to complement the more specific discussion provided in a brief prepared by the counsel for the Energy Facility Site Evaluation Council.

We view the electric energy situation regionally inasmuch as Washington, Oregon, and parts of Idaho and Montana are electrically interconnected and the utilities and the states have tended to share shortage equally.

Accordingly, many of my comments relate to this region rather than just to Washington State.

About every fourth year (though not in predictable sequence, unfortunately), the region experiences : b water year.

Electric energy supply planning must be directed toward % Jacv in these years.

There was no change in our firm energy supp'y (that N # '.e in low water years) between the two aforementioned reference v.): M c look at what has happened in the past two years will suffice for both.

In the two year period sirce January 1977, firm energy supply nas risen by 1.5%.

During the same period, new customer additions have amounted to between 5 and 10%

of the total number of cuitomers at the beginning of the period. Moreover, the majority of the new custocers use ehctricity for space heating.

Thus, our vulnerobility to shortage in years uT low water is considerably greater today than it was two years ago.

To amplify the foregoing, the following population information is provided:

Between 1965 and 1978, population in the country increased 13.25.

In the State of Washington, the increase was 23.15.

In June 1978 the state copulation statisticians forecast state population growth as follows, in thousands (1978 was 3774):

1930 - 3360,1985 - 4254,1990 - 4537,1995 - 4849, and 2000 - 5051.

By September, the statisticians saw need to revise the 19S0 figure upward to 3974.

Oregon's growth also w.s above the national average.

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Valentine B. Deale Fabruary 22, 1979 Compo nding the problem is the national need to substitute for petroleum uses where possi le. This need combines with air quality considerations to encourage electrification in urban transportation.

In this connection, Seattle expects to have between 100 and 200 trackless electric trolleys in operation by the end of this year.

Assuming all thermal power plants planned to come on line between now and flovember 1986, the date for the first of the Skagit Plants, co ccme on line as scheduled, the available firm energy then will be approximately 400 megawatts above a 3% growth projection from current use.

If two coal plants, whose construction has been halted for air quality reasons and may never be restarted, are subtracted, the available energy will be about 400 megawatts below a 3% growth projection.

I have used a 751 capacity factor in computing these figures, which is optimistic.

Of course, the 1936 date for Skagit tio.1 presumes construction beginning this year. Thus, the need for the Skagit plants is greater today than two years ago when it was expressly stated by Washington's Governor.

Sincerely, S. AL:<

Frederick S. Adair Acting Director FSA/kf cc:

Governor Dixy Lee Ray Senator R. Ted Bottiger Representative Ted Haley Representative Geraldine McCormick flicholas D. Lewis 4