ML19257D815
| ML19257D815 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Peach Bottom  |
| Issue date: | 01/30/1980 |
| From: | Doltroff S PECO ENERGY CO., (FORMERLY PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC |
| To: | Grimes B NRC - EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS TASK FORCE |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8002060531 | |
| Download: ML19257D815 (9) | |
Text
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PHILADELPHIA ELECTRIC COMPANY 2301 M ARKET STREET P.O. BOX 8699 PHILADELPHI A PA.19101 SHIELDS L DALTROFF wws possicapst etscTh - Pacouction January 30, 1980
- f r. Brian K. Grines, Director Emergency Preparedness Task Group Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation US tiu cle a r Regulatory C ommission
!1a s h i n g t on, DC 20555
Dear :
fr. Grimes.
This letter is in response to your letter of Novenber 29.
1979 on Evacuation Time Estimates (after notification) for Areas
': e a r Nuclear Power Plants.
This response provides evacuation eines on the basis of the p res ent state of emergency preparedness.
These estimates could change as state and county plans are revis ed a nd notifica ti on sys tems are developed.
The time estinates for this response were developed by the Pennsylvania Eme r gency ?!ana genent Agency (PEMA) and Phila de lp hia Electric Company.
Some inf ornation to de ve loo these estimates was p rovi ded by the 'iaryland Civil Def ens e and Disaster Preparedness Agency.
All of the groups involved agreed that providinn separate time estinates for different phases of an evacuation can be nisleading.
In a rapidly developing energency situation it could be expected that mobilization of eme r ge ncy p ers onnel, notification of the oublic, and evacuation of the public would be occuring simultaneously.
As a result. adding tine estimates together f or dif f erent phases of an evacuation may not be indicative of the t ot al time required t o evacuate an area.
'The tine of day at which an incident occurs can als o have a significant effect on the time t o notif y and evacuate the p u b li c.
' ot if ication t imes will be loncer in the niddle of the nigh t than durin= the day because nost forms of communication (e. c.. radios and television) are not being used.
H ow e ve r, evacuation times will generally be shorter at nicht b.e c a u s e most families arc together. s ch ools do not have to be evacuated. and factories do M [ti.
not have t o be shut down.
e 1928 222 Sc
@fcf 80 0 c 06 " "3 '
Mr. Brian K.
Crines. Director Page 2 The time estimates in this response are conservative.
Calculated times which were oart of an hour were rounded up to the next whole hour.
Your letter gave the follouing information c on c e rn i ri g the format to be used in this response.
Forma _t_.f o r, Rep o r t_ing Information r
The areas for which evacuation estimates are required nust encompass the entire area within a circle of about 10 miles radius, and have outer boundaries corresponding to the plume e xp os u re emergency planning zone (EPZ).
These areas are as follows:
Distance Area 2 miles two 180 degree sectors 5 miles f ou r 90 degree sectors about 10 miles four 90 degree sectors Estimates for the outer sectors should assume that the inner adjacent s ect ors are being evacuated sinultaneously.
To the extent p ract ical, the sector boundaries sh ou ld not divide densely populated areas.
Uhere a direction corresponding to the edges of areas for uhich esti=ates have been aade is thought not to be adequately represented by the cine esticates for adjacent areas, an additional area sh ould be defined and a separate estinate made for thic case.
The fornat f or submittal shculd include both a t a ': l c-and a figure (overlaid on a map) which each give the information requested in items 1 and 2 belou.
Additional caterial may be provided in associated text.
Seluired In f o rna t_1 on 1.
Two estimates are requested in each of the areas defined in iter 1 for a generic evacuation of the p op ula t i on (n ot including special facilities).
A best estimate is required and an adverse weather estinate is required for novenent of the noculation.
n""P """
l928 223 Two estimates for each of the areas defined above are shown in Table 1.
Sectors and evacuation routes are s h ow n on the attached naps.
The estinates for the areas in Pennsylvania were developed by P E?iA for a 10 nile radius around Peach 3otton Atonic P ow e r Station.
The me th od used by P 2'.!A to develop these estinates, uhich'is described in response to iten 6, was als o used to
Mr. Brian I.
Jrimes, Director Page 3 estimate evacuation times for the area in Maryland within the 10 mile radius.
The adverse weather data are based on P E:tA 's estimate that evacuation times would double in a two and five mile radius and would triple'in a 10 mile radius.
Kequired Information 2.
The total time required t o evacuate special facilities (e.g.,
hospitals) within each area nust be specified (b e s t estinate and adverse weather).
Re sp op s _e There are no h ospit als, nursing homes, or prisons within a 10 mile radius of Peach 3ottom Atomic Power Station.
Segu i r e d J.n fp r,m a,t ip.n 3.
The tine required f or confirmation of evacuation should be indicated.
Confirmation times may consider special instructions to the public (e.g.,
tying a handkerchief to a door or gate to indicate the occupant has left the premises).
S e s p.op _s e Confirmation of evacuation could include steps such as checking traffic flow, patrolling evacuated areas, and door-to-door verification.
In an actual event confirnation would.,robably be a combination of all of these methods.
It is PEMA's opinion that prelininary confirmation would be conoleted when there are essentially no more vehicles leaving the evacuated area.
Based on their estimates for vehicle travel time it would take approxinately three hours for preliminary confirmation. although this confirnation would be part of the evacuation time.
Patrollinq the evacuated area with emergency vehicles and aircraft and a d o or-t o-d oor check of sone residences vould provide more c omp le t e confirmation.
If it is assuned that patrollinP the area will require approxinately the same amount of time as notification, which is discussed in iten 4, it would take three h ou rs for this 7. ore complete confirmation.
The effectiveness of this method would depend on h ow cany p e op le were notified to leave s ome indication that they had evacuated. such as tying a cloth to their front door or mailbox. and h on nany people wou3d actually follow these instructions when they did leave.
1928 224
Mr. Brian K. Grimes, Director Page 4 Reguired Information 4.
Where plans and prompt notification systems have not been put in p lace for areas out to about 10 miles, estimates of the times required to evacuate until such measures are in place for the plume e xp os u re emergency planning zone (EPZ) should als o be given.
Notification times greater than 15 ninutes sh ould be included in the evacuation times and footnoted to indicate the notification time.
Ee 8 PJLn s_e_
Each county presently has a number of different methods of notification including sirens, radio and television broadcasts, use of weather channels, mobile public address systems and door-to-door, however, the present p lans cannot provide c o mp le t e notification within the 10 nile radius in a 15 minute time period.
PEMA estimates that it would take approximately three h ou rs to notify essentially everyone in a 10 mile radius that they should listen for further instructions or that they should evacuate immediately.
It has been assumed that the three h our notification estimate can be applied to the area in !!aryland since no unique notification problems have been identified.
In s one cases the t otal evacuation tine will not be the sum of notification and travel time since they could be occuring simultaneously, however, f or purposes of these estimates it was assumed that notification was c omp le t e before tha evacuation began.
Notification Travel Time Total Evacuation 10 Mile Radius Tine (Hours)
(Hou rs L _
T i n e _ _(J1 o_u r,s )_.
North Sector 3
3 6
East Sector 3
3 6
South Sector 3
2 5
Vest Sector 3
2 5
Se qP.r e d_
Inforgaeion i
5.
Where special evacuation p roblems are identified (e.g.
in hi'h nopulation density areas), specify alternative protective actions, such as shelterin',, 9hich would reduce e xp os u re and the effectiveness of these neasures.
Ee.s,ngn_sp There are no high,opulation density areas within 10 niles'of the Peach 30ttom Atomic P ow e r Station.
1928 225
Mr. 3rian %.
Grimes, Director Page 5 R equ i r e_d,In f o ma t_ _i o n 6.
A short background docunent should be submitted giving the methods used t o make the esticates and the assumptions made including the routes and nethods of transportation used.
This docunent should als o not e the agreement or areas of disagreement with principal local officials regardina, these estimates.
Resoonse For Pennsylvania the time estimates developed by PEMA were calculated using 1970 population information for the townships within a 10 mile radius of Peach B ott om Station.
Evacuation routes were s elected which p rovided the best roads with maximum traffic capabilities.
Secondary roads were not considered.
The following assumptions were ma de :
1)
Two way traffic maintained on all roads 2)
Average vehicle speed of 35 miles per h ou r 3)
Th re e p e rs ons per vehicle.
4) 750 cars per lane p er h ou r.
5)
Buses were not considered.
The primary routes used for evacuation are all medium or heasy duty roads although none of them are more than tuo lanes wide.
The routes used were PA 351 uest, PA 74 west, PA 324 north, PA 272 north, US 2 22 north, and US 1 east.
3ased on these assunotions it was calculated that 2250 people could pass by a check point each h ou r.
Using p op ula t i on figures for each to nship it was then p os s ible t o es timate h ow long it would take f or enou gh vehicles to pass a check point to evacuate everyone in that area.
For '!aryland the same logic and assunptions used by PEMA were anplied to Cecil and Harf ord Counties.
P. c a d conditions are sinilar.
The primary evacuation routes used were US 165 south, MD 646 south, MD 623 south, MD 222 south, and US 1 east.
The population data used was based on the sane 1970 data.
There is one rajor difference in the development of the data for Pennsylvania and '!aryland.
The PEMA evacuation data is based on sending n e op le to nass care facilitics outside of the 10 mile radius.
For this reason, some people in the east sector t rave l north within the 10 nile radius even t h ou gh more direct evacuation would be to travel cast.
This was not taken into consideration for developing t h e '!a ry lan d evacuation estimates a lt h ou g h it is expected that mass care facilities will be considered uhen state and county plans are revised.
1928 226
li r. 3rian I'.. Grices, Director Page 6 The estimates in this resp ons e were developed with the cooperation of state and local officials.
Although there were no major areas of disagreement, P E'.!A h a s emphasized tt.at all of their estimates are preliminary and may be revised as emergency planning and notificatt'n systems are updated.
Very truly yours, s"
e
% a k
Attachments i928 227
A T Ai;L E 1 EV,\\Cil AT IO!1, TIrir; ESTI!! ATES I:v a cu a t i on T0me (ll rs )
Evacuation Time (llr s )
G o o_d Uea t tie r _._. _ _ _,
A d v e r s_e_ U e_a t h_e r.
2_ 711 I e H a rt_i u s
!! E Sector a
2 Sl! Sector 1
2 5 !!_i l e P a ct.f in s
!! Sector 2
6 1: Sector 2
4 S Sector 2
4 If Sector 2
4 10 !!i l e R_ ail i,u s 11 Sector 3
9 E Sector
)
9 S Sector 2
6 U Sector 2
6 N
CD N
N CO