ML19251B010
| ML19251B010 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 09/04/1981 |
| From: | Hayes P NRC OFFICE OF STANDARDS DEVELOPMENT |
| To: | Billups C, Hickey C, Samworth R Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| CON-FIN-B-0165, CON-FIN-B-0423, CON-FIN-B-165, CON-FIN-B-423 NUDOCS 8110160293 | |
| Download: ML19251B010 (10) | |
Text
UNITED STATES
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e SEP 0 41991 MEMORANDUM FOR: Those on Attached List FROM:
Paul F. Hayes Siting and Environmental Branch Division of Health, Siting, and Waste Management
SUBJECT:
PROGRESS REPORTS: ORNL STRIPED BASS (80165)
AND WHITE PERCH (B0423) PROGRAMS Enclosed for your information and review are copies of the quarterly progress reports we received from OPsNL for research activities conducted from April 1 through June 30, 1981 on the research programs entitled, " Impacts on Hudson River Striped Bass" and " Impacts on Hudson River White Perch," W. Van Winkle and L. Barnthouse, principal investigators.
Your comments are solicited on the scope, technical merits, and direction of this research.
Also enclosed is a table indicating the projected schedule for completion of the reports resulting from these research programs.
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a A t'g h Paul F. Hayes Siting and Environmentaf Branch Division of Health, Siting, and Waste Management
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Enclosures:
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Quarterly Progress Reports 2.
Report Completion Schedule f
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Addressees - Memorandum dated SEP 0 4 1991 PDR (2)
R. Samworth, NRR C. Billups, NRR C. Hickey, NRR R. Geckler, T&R M. Masnik, NRR P. Cota, NRR T. Cain, NRR P. Reed, RES
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I QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT FOR PERIOD t
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April 1 through June 30, 1981 i
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES DIVISION 5
0AK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY I
PROJECT (189 No.):
B0165 - Hudson River Striped Bass PERSON IN CHARGE:
Webster Van Winkle PRINCIPAL SCIENTIST:
Lawrence W. Barnthouse TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES:
To further develop and apply comp.eter simulation models and other methods of quantitative analysis in assessing the effects of power plant entrainment and impingemeat on the striped bass population in the Hudson River.
STATUS OF SUBTASKS:
Work is proceeding on all subtasks.
MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS:
I.
Quantitative Methodologies for Estimatina the Probability of Entrainment Mortality, The NUREG report entitled "Detectability and Precision of Estimates of Entrainment Mortality of Ichthyoplankton," 0RNL/NUREG/TM-435 and NUREG/CR-1984, was published. A manuscript with the same title has been accepted for publication in Environmental Management.
A draft NUREG report entitled "The effect of stochastic variation on estimates of the probability of entrainment mortality: methodology, results, and users' guide" was completed and is now in technical review.
This research will be presented at the 1981 meeting of the American Fisheries Society (See attached abstract).
II.
Stock-Recruitment Analysis The NUREG report entitled " Statistical Examination of Stock-Recruitment Relationships in Three Fish Populations" has been published. A draft NUREG report entitled "A User's Guide for the Stock-Recruitment Model Validatior Program" is being prepared.
III. Relative Contribution Preparation of the NUREG report on the use of discriminant analysis to estimate the relative contribution of the Hudson River to the Atlantic coastal striped bass population has been resumed.
. 1 IV. Other Topical Reports The NUREG reports entitled "Entrainment Impact Estimates for Six Fish Species Inhabiting the Hudson River Estuary" (ORNL/NUREG/TM-385/VI and NUREG/CR-2220) and "An Analysis of the Validity of the Utilities'
. Stock-Recruitment Curve-Fitting Exercise" (ORNL/NUREG/TM-385/V3 and NUREG/CR-220) are in management review. The NUREG report entitled
" Users' Manual for STRIPE: A Computer Code for Simulating the Striped
< Bass Young-of-the-Year Population in the Hudson River" has been approved for publication and is now in press.
V.
Final Report Draf ts of sections of the Final Report dealing with empirical entrainment and impingement models have been completed. The remaining sections are now being completed.
PUBLICATIONS, PRESENTATIONS, AND MEETINGS:
Publications:
Vaughan, D.
S., and K. D. Kumar.
1981.
Detectability and Precision of Estimates of Entrainment Mortality of Ichthyoplankton. ORNL/NUREG/
TM-435 and NUREG/CR-1984.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge Tennessee.
Yoshiyama, R. M., W. Van Winkle, B. L. Kirk, and D. E. Stevens.
Regression Analyses of Stock-Recruitment Relationships in Three Fish Populations. ORNL/NUREG/TM-424 and NUREG/CR-1836. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee.
Presentations:
Barnthouse, L. W.
Population Models in Impact Assessment: The Lesson of the Hudson River Power Case. Presented at the Environmental Sciences Division Annual Information Meeting, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, May 11-12, 1981.
Meetinos:
None
QUARTERLY PROGRESS REPORT FOR PERIOD April 1 through June 30, 1981 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES DIVISION i
l 0AK RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY i
I PROJECT (189 No.):
B0423 - Hudson River White Perch PERSON IN CHARGE:
Webster Van Winkle PRINCIPAL SCIENTIST:
Lawrence W. Barnthouse i
j TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES:
To complete the topical reports on estimating and evaluating collection rates and conditional mortality rates due to l
impingement of white perch at the Indian Point Nuclear Station and the other power plants on the Hudson River. To collect, compile, and analyze data on white perch entrainment losses and censity-dependent growth. To review data and information on white perch from other water bodies. To document in c second topical report the results of the new analyses and to make a determination whether the combined entrainment and impingement losses may have an adverse impact on the Hudson River white perch population.
STATUS OF SUBTASKS:
Except for publication of results in the Final Report, all work on subtasks A and B has been completed. Work on subtasks C (Multispecies Effects) and D (Final Report) is proceeding on schedule.
MAJOR ACCOMPLISHMENTS:
A.
Direct Impa,ct of Impincement on the Hudson River White Perch Population Except for publication of results in the Final Report, all work on this subtask has been completed.
B.
Analysis of White Perch Impincement Rates Except for publication of results in the Final Report, all work on this subtask has been completed.
C.
Multispecies Effects lechnical review of the NUREG report entitled "Modeling Power Plant Impacts on Multipopulation Systems: Application of Loop Analysis to the Hudson River White Perch Population" (ORNL/TM-7900 and NUREG/CP.-2250) has been completed. This report is now in management review.
D.
Final Report A draft of the final report was completed, the manuscript is now in technical review. g
e s.
EFFECT OF ENVIRONMENTAL VARIATION ON 3
RELIABILITY OF ENTRAIEMENT MORTALITY ESTIMATES Siguad W. Christensen and Donald L. DeAngelis Environmental Sciences Division, Oak RidEe National Laboratory P.O. Box X, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37830 The probability that live fish eggs or larvae, entrained in power plant cooling water, will be killed is an important element in projecting effects on fish, stocks. This probability, the entrainment mortality factor, is co==only estimated with a relatively simple formula and data collected from intake and discharge water.
Such biological phenomena as gear avoidance, gear-induced I
mortality, extrusion through nets, and the presence of dead organisms in ambient water introduce error into estimates obtained with the formula. An I
additional difficulty is that, because of small sample si.tcs, it is usually i
necessary to combine data from many samples, taken under different conditions, l
before applying the formula.
A Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to assess the accuracy and precision of entrainment mortality esticates derived from field data. The biological phenomena mentioned above were included in the model as factors which could be held constant or varied randomly.
After, repeated siculation over a range of specified entrainment mortalities for varying biological conditions, the reliability of cortality esticates is eval ated by comparing the estimates with the actual mortality specified in the model.
In simulations where the mean parameter values met the assumptions of the formula, the random variation alone caused biased estimates. The formula overestimated mortality when mortality was high and underesticated mortality when mortality was low. The " averaging" due to combining sa ples was somewhat e ffective in reducing the variance, but not the magnitude, of this bias. An ef fective way to reduct. bias is to minimize gear avoidence and control gear-induced mortality.'
I Research supported jointly by the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Interagency Agreement DOE 40-550-75, and the Office of Health and Environmental Research, U.
S.
Department of Energy, under contract W-7405-eng-26 with Union Carbide Corporation.
- PUBLICATIONS, PRESENTATIONS, AND MEETINGS Publications:
Van Winkle, W., D. S. Vaughan, L. W. Barnthouse, and B. L. Kirk.
1981.
An analysis of the ability to detect reductions in year-class strength of the Hudson River white perch (Morone americana) population.
Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 38:627-632.
Presentations:
Barnthouse, L. W.
Population models in impact assessment: The lesson of the Hudson River Power Case. Presented at the Environmental Sciences Division Annual Information Meeting, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, May 11-12, 1981.
Meetinos:
None.
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NRC STRIPED BASS PROJECT (FIN NO. B0165) i SCHEDULE OF REPORT PRODUCTION Authors and Titles Draft in Review In Press
' Delivery Boreman, J., L.W. Barnthouse, D.S. Vaughan, 7/1/81 9/1/81 C.P. Goodyear, S.W. Christensen, K.D. Kumar, B.L. Kirk, and W. Van Winkle.
Entrainment Impact Estimates for Six Fish Species Inhabiting the Hudson River Estuary. ORNL/
NUREG/TM-385/V1 and NUREG/CR-2220.
BarnThou'se, L.W., W. Van Winkle, J. Golumbek, 7/1/81 9/1/81 G.F. Cada, C.P. Goodyear, S.W. Christensen, J.B. Cannon, and D.W. Lee.
Impingement Impact Analyses, Evaluations of Alternative Screening Devices, and Critiques of Utility Analyses Relating to Density-dependent Growth, the Age-structure of the Hudson River Striped Bass Population, and the LMS Real Time Life-Cycle Model. ORNL/NUREG/
TM-385/V2 and NUREG/CR-2220.
Christensen, S.W., C.P. Goodyear, and B.L. Kirk.
7/1/81 9/1/81 An Analysis of the Validity of the Utilities' Stock-recruitment Curve-fitting Exercise. ORNL/
NUREG/TM-385/V3 and NUREG/CR-2220.
Christensen, S.W., C.P. Goodyear, and B.L. Kirk.
7/30/81 9/1/81 9/30/81 A Users' Guide for the Stock-Recruitment Model Validation Program Yoshiyama, R.M., W. Van Winkle, and B.L. Kirk.
5/1/81 6/30/81 Statistical Examination of Stock-Recruitment Relationships in Tnree Fish Populations. ORNL/
NUREG/TM-42221 and NUREG/CR-1836.
Van Winkle,W., and K.D. Kumar. Relative Stock 9/30/81 Composition of the Atlantic Coast Striped Bass Population:
further analysis.
Christensen,S.W., and D.L. DeAngelis. The Effect 6/15/81 8/15/81 9/30/81 of Stochastic Variation on Estimates of the Probability of Entrainment Mortality:
Methodology, Results, and lisers' Guide.
[
e NRC STRIPED BASS PROJECT (FIN NO. B0165) (contd.)
/
Authors and Title Draf t in Revic.,
In Press -
' Delivery Eraslan, A.H., R.D. Sharp, and u Van Winkle 6/1/81 9/1/81 Users' Manual for STRIPE: A Computer Code for Simulating the Striped Bass Young-of-the-Year Population in the Hudson River. GRNL/NUREG/
TM-423 and NUREG/CR-1830.
3/31/81 6/30/81 Vaughan, D.S. and K.D. Kumar.
Detectability and Precision of Estimates of Entrainment Mortality of Ichthyoplankton. ORNL/NUREG/
TM-435 and NUREG/CR-1984.
Christensen, S.W. et al, Final Report 7/15/81 9/1/81 9/30/81
)
NRC WHITE PERCH PROJECT (FIN NO. 80423)
SCHEDULE OF REPORT PRODUCTION r
i Authors and Title Draft in Review In Press Delivery 5/1/80*
Van Winkle, W., L.W. Barnthouse, B.L. Kirk, and D.S. Vaughan. Evaluation of Impingement Losses of White Perch at the Indian Point Nuclear Station and 0 ORNL/NUREG/
TM-36,ther Hudson River Power Plants.
1 and NUREG/CR-1100.
Barnthouse, L.W.
Modeling power plant impacts on 4/1/81 7/15/81 9/1/81 multipopulation systems:
application of loop analysis to the Hudson, River white perch population.
Barnthouse et al.
Final Report.
6/15/81 8/1/81 9/30/81
- Delivered, 6/80